NFC Season Preview and Predictions

See, I told you so.

What exactly is the point of doing season predictions? Why do so many people do it and publish it? I think that's why, so that should the slight chance that we get slightly more right than wrong, we can say that: "See, I told you so." Ironically, we don't often here "wow, I screwed that up bad. I wasn't even close!"

I think a second reason people do predictions is because the offseason is long and we get so excited for the season to start we gotta do something to prepare! I love football! So here I go.

NFC

Last season the Eagles, Lions and Cardinals sat in the NFC cellar. This season those three should all be significantly stronger while no team in the conference really shows much decline. Result: the '13 NFC may be the strongest and most balanced conference we have ever seen. For many years the East has been Beast while the West was a laughingstock. Not so now, as many people view the NFC West as the best division in the league, while the South and North can also stake a claim as the strongest, a telling sign of how tough the conference has grown. Now more than ever, the NFC is really up for grabs and should be very entertaining.

At this point, the two best teams in the NFC are the 49ers and Seahawks; I don't think there's a lot of doubt about that. Thinking about the postseason, it is most likely that those two teams would meet in the second round. That makes winning the division so important, because even if the Wild Card wins, you want the NFC Championship game in Seattle or San Francisco, not 3,000+ miles away in Atlanta.

East

The East may not be as dominant as it has in the past, but it will be no less competitive. Indeed, each of the four teams has a good shot at winning the division. The biggest wild card is RGIII. The Redskins quarterback led the Redskins to the playoffs a year ago, and while his recovery has been remarkable, you wonder how much he will be compromised or how conservative the team will be with him. (Then again, he could be even better with his gained experience. I'm not so sure, as defenses will be ready for him.)  It seems that any given week Cowboys QB Tony Romo can look like either the best passer in the league or the worst, and he's usually the worst at the most inopportune times. The Giants are my team and Eli Manning is one of my favorite players, but they have been hit hard by injuries at nearly every position, and after the defense's underperformance last year and losses of Osi and Chris Canty, you wonder if they can regain that vaunted pass rush that disguises other weaknesses. The Eagles were a mess last year and made the change to Chip Kelly's high speed offense and got a new D-coordinator. Is that enough to turn them around? We'll see. 

Cowboys

+ Romo and Dez Bryant

- Tendency for Romo and defense to crumble; fragility of DeMarco Murray leading the ground game

Tough games: Broncos, @Eagles, @Lions, @Saints, @Giants, @Bears, @Packers @Redskins

Prediction: 9-7

Redskins

+ RGIII and Alfred Morris; a healthy Brian Orakpo should improve the defense

- Griffin's knee, challenging schedule

Tough games: @Packers, @Cowboys, Bears, @Broncos, @Vikings, @Eagles, 49ers, Giants, @Falcons, @Giants

Prediction: 9-7

Eagles

+ Coach Chip Kelly's regime, LeSean McCoy

- Offensive line, depth at receiver, Michael Vick injury risk

Tough games: @Redskins, @Broncos, @Giants, @Buccaneers, @Packers, @Vikings, Bears, @Cowboys

Prediction: 8-8

Giants

+ Eli Manning, Jason Pierre-Paul (if healthy). Champion experience.

- Plethora of injuries already on both sides; depth of ground game; secondary and pass rush

Tough games: @Cowboys, Broncos, @Chiefs, @Bears, @Eagles, Packers, @Redskins, @Chargers, Seahawks, @Lions

Prediction: 7-9

West

The breakout of the NFC West happened quick. Alex Smith turned things around in San Fran, then the keys were handed over to Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers exploded. Among all the great young quarterbacks in the league, Russell Wilson for the Seahawks may be the best. Sam Bradford finally has some receivers and o-line protection and a decent chance (remember, he was a #1 pick several years ago), and with the big step the Rams made last year, maybe they can build on that. And the Cardinals are coming off a season with one of the most pathetic quarterback performances in league history into one with a new quarterback who threw for over 4,000 yards a year ago. A lot to look forward to.

Seahawks

+ Perhaps the second most talented roster in the NFL. Balanced offense, strong o-line, great defense, great home field advantage

- No clear weaknesses

Tough games: 49ers, @Texans, @Colts, @Falcons, @49ers, @Giants

Prediction: 11-5

49ers

+ Perhaps the most talented roster in the NFL with a great coach (Harbaugh), dynamite quarterback, strong defense, and Super Bowl experience

- Weak group of wide receivers

Tough games: Packers, @Seahawks, Texans, @Saints, @Redskins, Seahawks, Falcons

Prediction: 11-5

Rams

+ Improved offensive line, speedy receivers, defense should be solid

- Bradford hasn't shown much in his career; no names in ground game

Winnable games: Cardinals, Jaguars, @Panthers, Titans, @Cardinals, Saints, Buccaneers

Prediction: 7-9

Cardinals

+ At least they have a real quarterback this year. Larry Fitzgerald will be happy. Defense was good last year

- Weak offensive line, weak rushing game, perhaps the league's toughest schedule

Winnable games: Lions, Panthers, @Jaguars, Colts, Rams, @Titans

Prediction: 5-11

North

Packers have owned the division lately but the Vikings made the playoffs last year while the Bears won 10 games. The Lions have a ton of talent and are no pushover, either. The NFC North has the best quarterback, running back, and wide receiver in the NFL. Most people are penciling in Green Bay to win the division without a second though, but I have some concerns about them, both on defense and offense. I love the addition of Reggie Bush to the Lions, but they don't have an easy game all year. If Jay Cutler can stay upright the Bears are my pick to win 10 games again and win the division, although a first round matchup with either the Packers or 49ers/Seahawks would be trouble.

Bears

+ New coach hopes to shake things up on offense. Matt Forte and Brandon Marshall are stars on offense. Strong and opportunistic defense

- Offensive line, Jay Cutler's leadership

Tough games: Bengals, @Lions, @Redskins, @Packers, Ravens, @Vikings, Cowboys, @Eagles, Packers

Prediction: 10-6

Packers

+ Aaron Rodgers, one of best quarterbacks (players) in the NFL leading the way, elite passing attacks; Clay Matthews is a monster on defense

- Defense is much too generous, especially in big games. They haven't had a legitimate ground game in a long time, questionable offensive line, tough schedule

Tough games: @49ers, @Bengals, @Ravens, @Vikings, @Giants, Falcons, @Cowboys, @Bears

Prediction: 9-7

Lions

+ Reggie Bush is perfect addition, Megatron is best receiver in football, talented defense

- Discipline, coaching, secondary

Winnable games: Vikings, @Cardinals, Bears, @Browns, Cowboys, @Steelers, Buccaneers, Ravens, Giants

Prediction: 8-8

Vikings

+ Adrian Peterson is the reigning MVP and carries the team. Strong o- and d- lines

- Nonexistent passing game, secondary

Winnable games: Browns, Steelers, Panthers, Redskins, Bears, Eagles, Lions

Prediction: 7-9

South

Falcons won the division going away last year as the other three teams all fell below .500 at 7-9. The Bucs and Saints are talented enough to make a jump, but the Saints will need a much better performance by their defense, and Josh Freeman will need to regain his swagger from early in his career when he looked like a future star. Cam Newton is a great talent but I question his leadership and ability to really take the Panthers up another step. I don't think Atlanta will be as dominant (or lucky?) as last season but even a small step back would keep them at the top of the division. One bright spot for the South, they go heads up with the AFC East, which means everybody gets a game with the Jets, Bills, and Dolphins.

Falcons

+ Impressive talent at skill positions on offense, significant success at home

- Defensive pass rush, inability to advance in the playoffs

Tough games: @Saints, Patriots, Seahawks, @Packers, @49ers

Prediction: 11-5

Buccaneers

+ Balanced offense; Revis and Goldson improve one of the league's worst pass defenses

- Is Josh Freeman going to rise or fall?

Winnable games: @Jets, Saints, @Panthers, Cardinals, Eagles, Panthers, Dolphins, Bills

Prediction: 9-7

Saints

- Drew Brees leads an elite aerial attack, Coach Sean Payton is back

- Defense has been historically bad

Winnable games: Falcons, Cardinals, Dolphins, Bills, @Jets, Cowboys, Panthers, Bucs, @Panthers

Prediction: 8-8

Panthers

+ Cam Newton among league's greatest talents and most exciting players; Luke Kuechly already a dominant force on defense in his second year

- Cam's leadership and inability to get everyone involved, troubles closing out games, defense isn't great

Winnable games: @Bills, Giants, Rams, @Dolphins, Buccaneers, Jets, Saints

Prediction: 6-10

Pencil It In

Seahawks

49ers

Likely In

Falcons

Packers

Bears

Best Shot in the East

Cowboys

Possible Party Crashers

Saints

Redskins

Eagles

Lions

Buccaneers

NFC Championship Game

Seahawks and Falcons

NFC and Super Bowl Champs

Seahawks

2013 NFL Preview: AFC

I am amazed at how significantly the power has shifted from the AFC to the NFC. Not only that, the gap between the top of the AFC and the other teams has widened significantly. Think of the worst (expected) teams in the NFL: Raiders, Jaguars, Titans, Bills, Jets. (And that's not even including the Chargers, Chiefs, Browns, or Dolphins). What do they all have in common? All in the AFC! Meanwhile, the bottom teams in the NFC (Lions, Eagles, Cardinals) should all be much better off this year.

East

As much as the Patriots have lost, they still have Brady and Belichick and that is a lot more than anybody else. Who's the second best QB in the division, Tannehill? The Dolphins are a trendy surprise team but I'm just not seeing it; even if Tannehill improves they are lifeless on offense. Miami has a tough first five weeks with home games against the Falcons and Ravens and road trips to Cleveland, Indianapolis and New Orleans; 1-4 heading into the bye is a distinct possibility (with back-to-back against Patriots and Bengals in October) and that would suck the life out of the team. I would feel much better about the Bills if rookie EJ Manuel got some experience in the preseason and was healthy heading into opening kickoff rather than giving way to an undrafted rookie. Patriots are a mile ahead of everybody else in the division.

Patriots

+ Brady & Belichick, very strong running game, improved defense, no games out West!

- changes among receivers, health of Gronkowski

Tough games: @Falcons, Broncos, @Texans, @Ravens

Prediction: 11-5

Dolphins

+ Tannehill could make big step, defense is a strong unit

- offense is weak an unimpressive, tough early schedule

Winnable games: @Browns, Bills, Chargers, Panthers, @Jets, @Steelers, @Bills, Jets

Prediction: 7-9

Bills

+ CJ Spiller is most explosive and exciting player in the division

- inexperienced quarterbacks (to put it nicely) with poor receivers; weak secondary

Winnable games: Panthers, @Jets, @Browns, @Dolphins, Chiefs, Jets, @Jags, Dolphins

Prediction: 6-10

Jets

+ Rex Ryan defense typically strong, Chris Ivory could improve ground game

- questionable quarterbacks with poor receivers; pass rush, secondary; combustible

Winnable games: Bucs, Bills, @Titans, Steelers, @Bills, Dolphins, Raiders, Browns, @Dolphins

Prediction: 5-11

West

This is clearly the Broncos division. Peyton Manning always leads a good offense, and as long as they look out for 60-yard hail mary passes in playoff games the defense should be one of the AFC's best, too. They are not without flaws; they've already lost two centers for the year, they don't have a proven running back, Elvis Dumervil is gone and Von Miller will miss 6 games. Chiefs are probably the next most competitive team but they've got a long way to go after they only won 2 games in 2012. Still, significant changes at coach and quarterback could add half dozen wins to that. Chargers made some team management changes but not much player talent improvements. The Raiders are not only disfunctional but devoid of talent. Tough combo.

Broncos

+ Peyton with the best receiving corps in the NFL

- injuries to offensive line, Von Miller suspended for early challenging games

Tough games: Ravens, @Giants, @Cowboys, @Colts, Redskins, @Patriots, @Texans

Prediction: 11-5

Chiefs

+ Coach Reid and Alex Smith significantly improve one of the worst QB situations from 2012. Jamaal Charles is a star. Arrowhead is generally a big home advantage.

- poor pass protection on offense and poor pass rush on defense

Winnable games: @Jags, @Titans, Raiders, Browns, @Bills, Chargers, @Raiders, Colts, @Chargers

Prediction: 8-8

Chargers

+ Added talent on defense, front office changes

- Declining and turnover-prone quarterback with a depleted receiving group

Winnable games: @Titans, @Raiders, Colts, Raiders, Chiefs

Prediction: 5-11

Raiders

+ ... ...

- least talented team by far and no management stability

Winnable games: Jags, Redskins, Chargers, Eagles, Titans, Chiefs, @Chargers

Prediction: 3-13

North

The Black and Blue division is likely to be tougher than ever as the Bengals, Ravens and Browns all improved their defenses and the two young quarterbacks Weeden and Dalton look to make a step forward. Baltimore is the defending Super Bowl champions, but they have gone through the most personnel changes in the whole league. Their offense is depending a whole lot on Joe Flacco and Ray Rice without much help elsewhere, but while the defense shed some aging veteran leadership they found some real pass rushers. The Steelers are still led by Big Ben Roethlisberger and Troy Polamalu, but how many games will those stars be healthy enough to play? Two and a half years ago I thought the Bengals were nuts for retaining Coach Marvin Lewis; now I believe they are headed to their third straight postseason. Cincinnati has the most talent in the division on offense and defense but it all depends on Andy Dalton's progression. Fortunately, they added some toys for him in the draft. Cleveland has the furthest to go and the only unproven quarterback in the division, but they have improved around him and brought in Norv Turner as O-Coordinator which should give him a boost.

Bengals

+ AJ Green, Geno Atkins, defense should be great

- How good is Andy Dalton, and can he get the ball to anyone else?

Tough games: @Bears, Packers, Patriots, @Ravens, Colts, @Steelers

Prediction: 10-6

Ravens

+ Pass rush with Dumervil, Canty, Suggs and Ngata; Super Bowl experience; Ray Rice most valuable player in division

- massive roster turnover; lack of receivers; challenging schedule; SB hangover

Tough games: @Broncos, Texans, Packers, @Steelers, @Bears, Patriots, @Bengals

Prediction: 9-7

Browns

+ Trent Richardson focal point on offense

- Below average QB play, #1 receiver suspended first 2 games, tough schedule

Winnable games: Dolphins, Bills, Lions, Steelers, Jags, @Jets

Prediction: 7-9

Steelers

+ Franchise stability, Roethlisberger’s experience

- Poor offensive line coupled with Big Ben’s beleaguered injury history, lost top receiver and top 2 running backs, top two tight ends also hurt

Winnable games: Titans, @Jets, @Raiders, Bills, Lions, Dolphins, Browns

Prediction: 6-10

South

This division mirrors the West and East: the Texans have established themselves as a wide class above the rest; the Colts are gunning for a playoff berth, and the other two teams are terrible. Indianapolis and Luck appear to have gotten lucky in 2012 and are hoping to grow on that. I don't think they are strong as an 11-win team, but in an easy AFC and if Andrew Luck is all that he is made out to be, they should be a 9- or 10-win team and good enough to play an extra game in January. The Titans and Jaguars each have poor quarterbacks and poor defenses, a lethal combination for fans' hopes.

Texans

+ Foster + Andre Johnson + Watt = starpower

- average QB, team’s inability to make noise in the playoffs

Tough games: @Ravens, Seahawks, @49ers, Patriots, @Colts, Broncos

Prediction: 11-5

Colts

+ Potential of Andrew Luck with more weapons, lots of 2012 first-year players more experienced now

- Offensive line, rushing, defense all suspect

Tough games: @49ers, Seahawks, Broncos, @Texans, @Bengals, Texans

Prediction: 9-7

Jaguars

+ MJD is back, good group of young receivers, new coach

- Terrible quarterback play, one of league’s worst defenses

Winnable games: Chiefs, @Raiders, Colts, Chargers, Cardinals, Bills, Titans

Prediction: 6-10

Titans

+ Strong ground game, several quality receivers

- Terrible defense devoid of playmakers, Jake Locker doesn’t look like an NFL quarterback

Winnable games: Chargers, Jets, Chiefs, Jaguars, @Raiders, Cardinals

Prediction: 5-11

Lock It Up

Patriots

Texans

Broncos

Bengals

Likely Wild Cards

Ravens

Colts

Potential Party Crashers

Chiefs

My Pick for AFC Champ

(Surprise!) Bengals

well Joe, I hope you're happy!

Know what happens when you sign the wealthiest contract in football history, in a salary cap sport?

Let’s rewind a few months to New Year’s Eve. The Ravens had just lost their final regular season game to the Bengals. They had truly backed into the playoffs, losing four of their last five games. The offense (led by Flacco) was so bad that they fired their offensive coordinator.

And then Ray Lewis returns for his final playoff farewell. They match up against a weak Colts team, the Broncos’ secondary makes one of the worst gaffes in postseason history, Baltimore’s defense punishes Brady and the Pats, and Flacco shines in the Super Bowl thanks to some amazing catches by his receivers and a 108-yard kickoff return. Frankly, I think the Ravens’ win was flukey and a result of a lot of good luck.

Suddenly, Joe Flacco is a free agent at the perfect time and the quarterback that has never been selected to a Pro Bowl is offered a six-year, $120.6 million contract. Good for you Joe, get what you can get.

The only problem is, there isn’t enough to go around. I hope you’re ready.

The Ravens didn’t have the budget to keep Anquan Boldin and wanted to reduce his salary. What did Flacco say? Boldin should “stick to his guns, and that’s the way it should be.” Well, he stuck to his guns and immediately got traded for a sixth round draft pick. According to ESPN’s Colin Cowherd, Joe Flacco completed 62% of his passes to Boldin and just 48% to everyone else. If Flacco takes a little less there is likely enough to not even worry about Boldin. How will you do without him, Joe?

Unfortunately, that’s not the end of it. We know that linebacker Ray Lewis retired. The Ravens let go of Dannell Ellerbe and sack-leader Paul Kruger. They also just lost their leading tackler safety Bernard Pollard. Other players no longer on the team include veteran guard Bobbie Williams and retired center Matt Birk. And what about Ed Reed, the future Hall of Famer?

So Mr. Flacco, you got your money and I hope you are happy. Because of your new contract there is much less financial flexibility in Baltimore, your top target is now playing for the other Harbaugh and your defense got a lot weaker. Now we will all see whether you really belong among the most valuable quarterbacks in the league because there is no one for you to hide behind. You will soon realize that your teammates had a lot to do with your success.

In a team sport with a $123 million salary cap to cover 53 players, when one player counts for $30 million (24%) of that, he better be a superstar. And Joe is not a superstar.

is Joe Flacco elite? No!

(Februray 9, 2013)

The biggest buzz word in football the last couple years is “elite.” Michael Kay asked Eli Manning if he thought he was elite and Eli said “yeah, I do.” Then he went on to win the Super Bowl MVP for the second time. Right after that radio interview, Joe Flacco said that he was elite, too. Two years later he won his first Super Bowl and now many people want to say that Joe is now elite because of that ring and he expects to be paid like an elite.

So what exactly is “elite”? One dictionary describes it (and I like it) as “the most powerful, rich, gifted or educated members of a group.” So an elite quarterback is one of the most powerful, skilled, and successful quarterbacks in the NFL. The obvious key words are “one of the most.”

I believe that the criteria for determining greatness in a quarterback is the following:

1) Team success. A top quarterback leads his team to a championship and they are a fixture among the best teams in the league regularly.

2) Statistical Production. A top quarterback is among the best in passing numbers.

3) Being consistently great. Staying on a high level for an extended period of time, at least two consecutive years.

4) Leadership. A truly great quarterback carries the team and is the primary reason they are successful.

Let’s go through these with Mr. Joe Flacco to see how he fits.

1) Joe Flacco’s Ravens have been a model of consistency since he arrived. Not only have they been in the playoffs all five years but the Ravens have won at least a game each year. Nobody else in the NFL can say that. Including postseason and regular season, the Ravens are tied with the Patriots for the most wins over the last five years. This year they had a great run and won the championship, and that’s why we’re even having this conversation. This is indeed where Joe Flacco gets his highest grade.

2) As stats go, it’s not even close. If we could pick and chose Joe Flacco’s best career statistics and pretend they all happened in the same year, his perfect season would be this:

Yards 3,817; TDs 25; Comp% 63.1; Y/A 7.41; Rating 93.6; QBR 60.4

Compare that to the fourth best stat line seasons for the other great quarterbacks

- Drew Brees = Yards 4,620; TDs 34; Comp% 67.5; Y/A 7.98; Rating 96.3; QBR 64.4

- Peyton Manning = Yards 4,500; TDs 33; Comp% 67.6; Y/A 7.89; Rating 101.0; QBR 68.6

- Tom Brady = Yards 4,398; TDs 34; Comp% 65.6; Y/A 7.79; Rating 98.7; QBR 65.1

- Aaron Rodgers = Yards 4,038; TDs 28; Comp% 64.7; Y/A 7.78; Rating 101.2; QBR 69.2

There are two other quarterbacks that have won Super Bowls, and yes, they have both won plural. Eli Manning has been Super Bowl MVP twice, just missed throwing for 4,000 yards four years in a row, and leads one of the best offenses in football. Ben Roethlisberger has been to the Super Bowl three times, won twice, has thrown for 4,000 yards twice and has some of the most unique gifts and abilities in the NFL. Using Flacco’s best calling card and he’s no better than 7th.

And if you extend the conversation outside of those seven championship quarterbacks you would still put Tony Romo and Matt Ryan (maybe even Philip Rivers) ahead of Flacco, with Matthew Stafford and Josh Freeman up and coming. Add all the rookies and sophomores (Luck, Newton, Kaepernick, Griffin III, Wilson) in a couple years… Joe’s got a long way to go.

3) As far as being consistently great, Flacco has been great for four weeks. He’s never had one great season, never mind two consecutive. In regards to those six important quarterback stats (passing yards, touchdown passes, completion percentage, yards per pass attempt, passer rating, and total quarterback rating), Flacco has been in the Top 10 only twice (7th in passer rating in 2010 and 10th in touchdown passes in 2010). Two out of thirty. Brees, Manning, Brady and Rodgers are probably thirty for thirty.

4) For the last decade the Ravens have been known as the most physical, defensive-minded, ground n’ pound teams in the NFL. Since Flacco took over they have not been even a Top Ten offense. Oh by the way, Flacco hasn’t ever been selected to a Pro Bowl.

As we all know, the Ravens have won a lot of playoff games. That does not mean that Joe Flacco primarily led them in those games. In his rookie year he averaged 10 competions for 140 yards in the two wins; in their loss he was sacked three times and threw three interceptions. In 2009 he had two bad games with a passer rating below 40 in both. In 2010 he had one good game and one poor game (125 yards, 1 INT). The last two postseasons he has been great. Indeed, it can’t be disputed that Joe Flacco had one of the best postseason runs of all time this year. But as far as long term leadership, it just isn’t there yet.

By the way, the Ravens offense did not score a touchdown in the second half. Joe almost pulled a Matt Ryan.

Flacco’s got a Super Bowl MVP and I’m taking nothing away from that. But the nature of “elite” is that it is exclusive. Joe Flacco is a starting quarterback in the National Football League; that is a special group to be part of. It takes a whole lot more than four good weeks to earn the label of “elite” and be considered among the greatest in that group. There are currently four “elite” quarterbacks: Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees. That’s all. We need to see some consistent production and extended leadership before Flacco cracks into the upper echelon.

why the San Francisco 49ers DID NOT win

(Feb 4, 2013)

It was an amazing Super Bowl. I spoke up vocally in favor of the 49ers but my pick did not pan out. My apologies to anyone who lost money because of me (yeah right). In a game decided by only 3 points, there were eight big reasons that made the difference between 49ers winning and losing.

8. Dug too big of a hole. Niners have done (and did) a great job of cutting deficits and making big comebacks this year. Unlike the 1980 USA hockey team, eventually that will catch up to them. San Francisco fell in a 28-6 hole early in the second half that was just too deep to get out of.

7. Game mismanagement. 49ers had second and goal from the 5 at the two minute warning. From that point on Colin Kaepernick attempted three forced passes to Crabtree that all fell incomplete. Why not keep the ball on the ground? Frank Gore’s previous three carries 62 yards (20 yards per carry). Kaepernick averaged 9 yards a carry for the game. The 49ers were very effective running the ball all day. The previous drive on the two-point attempt (for the tie) it was a similar situation; Baltimore had everybody on the line and sent the kitchen sink at Kaepernick. He hastily threw the ball away. Why not try running through the line, or finding a hole? Kaepernick has a great arm but at this point he just doesn’t have the experience. Use his legs or Gore’s legs in those situations.

6. Mistakes. 49ers made four huge mistakes that put them in the big hole.

a. On the first Ravens drive, on third down and 9, Flacco threw an incomplete pass. But the 49ers (two players) were called for offside, and on the next play Flacco threw to Boldin for a touchdown. (Difference of 4 points, final score difference 3 points?)

b. The fumble by LaMichael James was just a disaster from the start. On first and ten from the Baltimore 24, James got hit by six different Ravens before he even reached the line of scrimmage, and it was the sixth guy that knocked the ball out. Should have just sucked it up and taken the loss of yards instead of fighting an unwinnable fight. That cost them at least 3 points.

c. The first play of the 49ers next possession Colin Kaepernick threw his worst pass of the day. He had plenty of protection but he sailed a weak throw ten yards pass the intended receiver right into the hands of Ed Reed, the all-time best playoff ball hawk. A quarterback should know where that guy is at all times.

d. To begin the second half the 49ers gave up a 108 yard kickoff return. That is a major blunder that left the game at 28-6.

Four huge, costly mistakes for the 49ers. Ravens just had two (the Ray Rice fumble and the ‘running into the kicker penalty’). That’s the difference in the game.

5. Bad call by the ref at the end. On fourth and goal from the 5, Jimmy Smith grabbed Michael Crabtree and held on for 3-4 seconds. The ball was in the air. Crabtree would have had a play at the ball. It should have been first and goal from the 1 (or at least, first and goal from inside the 3). There was no flag thrown. In any other moment in any other game that is a flag. The refs have thrown flags for pass interference all season long in record fashion, yet in the biggest moment when it is so deliberate, they let it go. Holding or PI, they have to call that. It was a bad no-call and it changed the outcome of the game.

4. Dropped pass. Before that missed fourth and goal at the end, 49ers had a chance to score. On first and 10 from the San Fran 36, Kaepernick ran a play action deep pass to Vernon Davis. It was a perfect throw, but Davis just dropped it off his finger tips. If he catches it there’s a good chance he goes all the way for a go-ahead touchdown. As you read later, it’s the receivers that make the difference.

3. Chris Culliver. As if his homophobic comments earlier in the week weren’t bad enough, he was terrible in the game, absolutely terrible. Joe Flacco knew it, and went to him whenever a big play was needed. He was burned three times on third-and-long that cost the game. In the first quarter on third and 7, a broken play hail mary heave finds his receiver for a huge gain right in front of him. Yes, that’s him, #29.

In the second quarter on third down and 10, he got burned, jumped over the receiver (touch him and he’s down), and then failed to make a tackle (yes, three on one play), allowing a 56 yard touchdown.

In the fourth quarter trailing by 2, he made a terrible pass interference penalty that otherwise would have set up a fourth down punt. Instead, the Ravens moved along and kicked the game-winning field goal.

Make just one of those plays, it’s a different outcome.

2. Too conservative. Especially in the first half, the 49ers were way too conservative in their offensive approach.

a. Twice in the first half on third-and-long, the 49ers handed off to Frank Gore, preceding punts. (Both punts were followed by Baltimore touchdown drives.)

b. Twice early in the second half, trailing 28-6, on first down and 10 on their own side of the field, 49ers ran little draw play handoffs up the middle for 3 yard gains. There was no urgency.

c. After the power delay, on third down and 13, Kaepernick dumped it off to a running back who gained 6 yards, and then they punted from around midfield down by 22 points. They had half hour to plan what to run and that was all they could do? If you are going to try for short yardage on third down, go for it on fourth! You are down by three touchdowns in the Super Bowl!

Compare those moments to what John Harbaugh and the Ravens did, trying a fake field goal, returning a kick from the back of the endzone, etc. Baltimore was much more aggressive, and the football gods smile on those who play aggressively.

1. Ravens receivers. Flacco was named MVP, but it was his receivers that made all the amazing plays. Jacoby Jones, Anquan Boldin, and Ed Dickson were outstanding all game long, making big catch after big catch, pulling the ball out of the air. Just like David Tyree, Santonio Holmes, and Mario Manningham, that’s what it takes to win the Super Bowl, some amazing catches by the receivers.

why the San Francisco 49ers will win

Super Week and the media circus is finally over. We've had enough of Manti Te'o, Lance Armstrong, A-Rod, Ray Lewis' twelve year old trial, and deer antler spray. Finally there's a real game to talk about. Here are the five reasons I’m picking the Niners.

5. 49ers have the best players. They’ve had the best ensemble for the last two years (only missing out on the Super Bowl after two special team blunders by fill-in return man Kyle Williams in an OT game). They have better receivers (Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis with Randy Moss in the redzone), better linebackers (three Pro Bowlers; Patrick Willis, Aldon Smith, Navarro Bowman), and probably the best o-line and d-line in the league. Unlike the Patriots (who also have a ton of good players), the Niners are incredibly physical and great tacklers. Nobody allowed fewer yards after the catch than San Fran. The Ravens do have some legends, but many of them are past their prime at the end of their careers.

4. Who cares about momentum? Everyone interested in this game (that would be every American with a heart beat) says that Baltimore has a lot of momentum going for them right now and that’s why anybody picking the Ravens is picking the Ravens. Well guess what: after 13 days between games momentum is gone. Now it comes down to talent and execution. You know where I stand on the assessment of talent. In five of the last six games of the regular season the Ravens were terrible. Now that “The Return of Ray Lewis Adrenaline Run” has worn off, they will be who they really are: not terrible, but they won’t be as dominant as they have been the last few weeks.

3. 49ers have an incredibly balanced attack on offense. We know Kaepernick can run with it. He can also pass; great chemistry has been developed with Michael Crabtree, and after a slow transition Vernon Davis is clearly on his radar. Frank Gore is one of the toughest runners in the league. Jim Harbaugh has done a great job of using everything and everyone effectively. Baltimore won’t be able to stop them.

2. Law of Averages. Joe Flacco has been so good lately, probably the best stretch of his career. He’s gone 24 quarters without throwing an interception with twelve touchdowns during that time. That can’t continue. He’s not good enough to do it four games in a row against playoff teams. He will struggle against a great 49ers defense with six Pro Bowlers that doesn’t have to blitz.

1. Kaepernicus. Colin Kaepernick is the best player on the field. Put together a machine with everything you want in a quarterback, he’d look like Colin Kaepernick: big, strong arm, accurate, smart, good movement in the pocket, huge speed, unfazed, unafraid, and confident. He beat the Packers with his legs, running for 181 yards and two touchdowns; he beat the Falcons with his arm, completing 76% of his passes, over 11 yards per attempt, for a passer rating of 127.7. He doesn’t make mistakes much but when he does, he shows an uncanny ability to bounce back. Kaep presents too many problems for a defense; he hides the pigskin well (defenders usually have to guess quickly whether he or Frank Gore holds the football, and they usually guess wrong or simply find out too late), and he can gun it anywhere on the field. I know he’s young; I don’t care. There’s no way that the Ravens will be able to stop him.

Miller’s Fearless Forecast: 49ers 30, Ravens 24

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five dumbest statements of the week

Two weeks is too long before the Super Bowl. All it provides is too much opportunity for players to make a fool of themselves in front of a microphone. For reporters, it’s like Christmas as players take the bait over and over and feed us with boneheaded statements. Here are some of the bytes we got in Media Week leading up to the Super Bowl.

1. Randy Moss, when asked about his place in football history:

“I really think I’m the greatest receiver to ever play this game.”

Yeah, he said that. We are pleased with his confidence but let’s be real: Randy Moss is far from the best. Compare the career of Jerry Rice and it’s obvious that Moss isn’t in his league. Rice finished with 1,549 receptions, 22,895 yards and 197 touchdowns. All distant records. Lest you think that those records were just a matter of longevity, note that Rice had 14 seasons with over 1,000 yards receiving, including 10 straight seasons of 1,000+ yards and 9+ touchdowns, 12 All-Pro selections, and three Super Bowl championships. Randy Moss, meanwhile, has 982 career receptions, 15,292 yards and 156 touchdowns. To catch Jerry, Randy would have to duplicate his amazing 2007 Patriots season stats five more times. Moss had 10 seasons of 1,000 yards receiving and never more than four straight with 9+ touchdowns. He is a 5-time All-Pro is still looking for his first Super Bowl ring.

Even besides the numbers, remember that in the middle of his career Randy Moss was traded for a 4th round draft pick, packaged with a 7th rounder for a 3rd round draft pick, cut midseason after that trade, and at age 34, retired because nobody wanted him. During the half season he spent in Tennessee, the Titans had practically no other significant receiver and they still hardly used Moss (just 6 catches in 8 games). He quit on one team and four teams quit on him.

Now as he gets his second shot in a Super Bowl he is hardly even relevant in the 49ers offense, failing to tally even four catches or 50 yards in the last 12 games. Just shut up and be glad you’re along for the ride, Randy.

2. Chris Culliver, on whether gay players would be welcome on the team:

“No, we don’t got no gay people on the team. They gotta get up out of here if they do. Can’t be with that sweet stuff. Nah, can’t be in the locker room man. Nah.”

I wonder what you expect me to say. How about this from the 49ers organization:

“The San Francisco 49ers reject the comments that were made yesterday and have addressed the matter with Chris. There is no place for discrimination within our organization at any level. We have and always will proudly support the LGBT community.”

From his head coach: “I reject what he said. That’s not something that reflects the way the organization feels [or] the way the rest of the players feel.”

Ravens’ Dennis Pitta: “We have a great locker room, we have a tight-knit group, we’re all friends, and that doesn’t matter about race, religion, [sexual orientation,] any of that.”

Ravens’ Brendon Ayanbadejo: “That’s something that we really try to preach, love and acceptance of everybody.”

This may have been one of the dumbest things any athlete has said this year. It will probably cost Culliver his job. Sexual orientation has no impact on on-field performance or how good a teammate is. Hopefully all the reaction has triggered more attention towards love, tolerance, and acceptance.

3. Ed Reed, on the league office and Commissioner Roger Goodell’s handling of fines for head hits:

“There’s so much that needs to be done, but they’d rather police certain things… You’re just somebody upstairs wearing a suit, fining people and stuff like that for the wrong things.”

This comes a day after Reed admits he deals with problems caused by head injuries from football hits and is worried about serious problems down the road.”I [fear] for my family, for my family to have to go through that if it happens.” Head injuries and safety are the number one concern in the NFL right now, and the league is dealing with lawsuits as well as ideas on making the game safer. Ed Reed is a multi-time offender, one of the highest penalized player for blows to the head. If he is having a hard time with confusion and memory problems, and is concerned about his family down the road, he should think about all the defenseless receivers that he’s been penalized for knocking out with an illegal hit.

4. More Ed Reed, when asked if he could see himself playing for the Patriots next season:

“Yeah, oh yeah, man, I could definitely play for Coach Belichick. He is a great coach. I’m sure he can help me to expand my football knowledge even more as a player and as a coach.”

Dude, you are in the Super Bowl as a member of the Baltimore Ravens and the Patriots are one of your team’s biggest rivals! Say this next week after the Super Bowl. Say this when free agency period opens. Say it after you become a soldier in Belichick’s army. Right now focus on the Super Bowl, stopping Colin Kaepernick, and winning for the Baltimore Ravens.

5. Joe Flacco, about next year’s Super Bowl at Metlife Stadium (an outdoor arena in the cold Northeast):

“I think it’s retarded… I think it’s stupid. If you want a Super Bowl, put a retractable dome on your stadium. Then you can get one. Other than that I don’t really like the idea.”

Don’t worry Joe. You won’t be invited next year.

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Super Bowl storylines

It’s Media Week, the craziest time of the year. The biggest TV event of the year is a week away, the media circus is world’s biggest this side of Jets camp, and we will all be burned out by the time Sunday rolls around. Here are the four biggest stories coming into The Big Game. Once you read this, you can turn off the radio and TV, tune in Sunday afternoon, and you won’t have missed anything.

1. Kaepernicus. Ever since I first saw him on the field I knew that he was a future star and I’ve been saying that for a month. I didn’t realize that future is already here! He has only started half a season, but Colin Kaepernick… what can you say? The potential is through the roof.

The last two weeks were a snapshot of his arsenal and it’s the full package. He used his legs to blow out the Packers and did it in record fashion. Against the Falcons he used his arm to mount an impressive comeback on the road. Like LeBron James in the NBA, Kap is a freakish physical specimen. He is huge, 6-4, 230 lbs. He is very fast, outrunning everybody on the defense. A “former” pitcher, he can throw a baseball 92 mph and in like manner can throw a football with more velocity than any other quarterback. He has the accuracy of a Pro Bowl veteran and already has the knack for putting the ball in the perfect location for a receiver to catch and make a big play. He avoids mistakes. After each of the four interceptions he threw this year, he came back the next possession to lead the 49ers to a touchdown. When he runs with the football he has a knack to pick up a chunk of yards without taking big hits. Just the fear of him running opens up the whole offense for a Frank Gore handoff or a long pass to Michael Crabtree. He beat a lot of good teams in his short career, including the Bears, Packers, in New Orleans, in New England and in Atlanta. So yes, he has size, speed, arm strength, accuracy, decision-making, and composure.

Face it; Jim Harbaugh is smarter than you. He knows more about quarterbacks than you. Alex Smith took the Niners to the NFC Championship Game a year ago and is a nice player. He probably could have gotten them back this year, too. Harbaugh took a lot of criticism for sticking with Kap after Smith got healthy. Smith will have a starting job next year somewhere. But he’s not a star. Kaepernick is the full package and we haven’t even seen his full potential.

2. January Joe. Ben Roethlisberger has the nickname and reputation of Big Ben, but did you know that Joe Flacco is even larger (6-6, 245 lbs, compared to Big Ben 6-5, 241)? Joe Flacco hasn’t received a whole lot of credit or recognition in his career. During the regular season he shows flashes of brilliance but also makes a lot of poor decisions. Nobody throws deep as often as Flacco; as a result, his completion percentage isn’t as high as it could be. For the most part of his career the Ravens defense has been the best in the league and on offense he has had Ray Rice, one of the NFL’s best running backs, as a sidekick so he hasn’t had to throw for 4,000 yards. He’s big, but he never takes off (hasn’t had 90 yards rushing in any of the last four seasons).

But let’s get the facts straight: Flacco has started every game for the Ravens since they drafted him five years ago. And once the playoffs start he doesn’t mess around. He has won eight playoff games (at least one every year) including a record six on the road. He was good enough to win the AFC Championship last year. This season the defense has been down and Rice had his least productive season, and Flacco still led the Ravens to the Super Bowl. Last week Tom Brady struggled with the wind on Sunday; Flacco did better when he was throwing into the wind! This postseason Flacco has thrown 8 touchdowns without an interception and had two of his most impressive games ever against Peyton’s Broncos and Tom’s Patriots.

It’s hard to quantify and rank Flacco. Is he elite, a Top Five quarterback? Probably not, probably not even Top Ten. But if he gets a Super Bowl ring, especially this year when the Ravens collectively are the weakest they have been since he arrived, it doesn’t matter where he ranks. “All he does is win,” even more so than Tim Tebow. This has been a statement season for him. Last week he turned 28, so we have another decade of Flacco to go.

3. HarBowl. Yeah, you’ve probably heard of this one. This is the first time that two brothers have faced each other as coaches in the Super Bowl. We all hear how Rex Ryan and the Jets went to two straight Conference Championship games; so have Jim Harbaugh and Jeff Harbaugh, and they’ve gone on to win one of them! And actually, they should have won last year, too.

It’s impossible to talk about Joe Flacco without mentioning John Harbaugh. Both guys arrived at the same time and have been consistent during all the winning. While Joe has won eight playoff games (possibly nine) in five years, so has John. John inherited a talented team, but they were coming off a season where the quarterback got hurt midseason (then retired) and the team clearly had grown tired of Coach Brian Billick, losing nine straight games. As talented as the ’02-‘07 Ravens were, they only made the playoffs twice in those six seasons and never won a playoff game. Since John arrived, no team has been more consistent, making the playoffs and advancing each year, and they’ve been a real bear to face. John has instilled an aura of physicality that is unmatched. And I don't think he wants to lose to his younger brother.

As a quarterback with the Colts, Jim Harbaugh came a dropped pass away from the Super Bowl. As a quarterbacks coach for the Raiders, he helped Rich Gannon have one of the greatest seasons ever for a quarterback. As head coach he helped the University of San Diego have back-to-back 11-1 seasons. At Stanford he coached Andrew Luck, one of football’s brightest prospects ever. He also led the Cardinals to three wins over USC in four years, including one when they were 41 point underdogs (biggest upset in NCAA history). He also led Stanford to their first 11-1 season in school history. As a head coach of the 49ers he helped Alex Smith finally become a quality starting quarterback and Smith had his best two years (okay, year and a half) of his career. And now he has developed Colin Kaepernick into a star. In his first two years he has led a talented but underachieving Niners team to an NFC Championship game and the Super Bowl I would say that Jim knows a thing or two about quarterbacks and coaching.

4. Ray Lewis. Yes, we are all tired of his act and his preaching. But look at the difference his presence makes on the field. Without him the defense was a joke. With him, Captain America and the Patriots were shut out in the second half. Lewis makes everyone around him on defense better. He is old and not as dominant as he was in his prime. Yet in these three playoff games he had 44 tackles. The former Super Bowl MVP has announced his retirement following the season we know this is it for Reverend Ray, but his season continues to be extended. And this week he hopes to make like John Elway and Michael Strahan and win the Super Bowl in his last game. He is one of the game’s most inspirational leaders on the field, arguably the best middle linebacker in the history of the NFL, and definitely the most dominating player in my lifetime. I’m looking forward to his pregame dance and seeing him cover the middle of the field for the last time.

Pats fan abandoning ship?

I have been admittedly gaga for Tom Brady his whole career and a Patriots fan since he’s come to town. But this team has done enough lately to really make me question my loyalty.

1. Bill Belichick’s refusal to speak to Steve Tasker for CBS after Sunday night’s loss shows us once again that Belichick is a sore loser. And as Shannon Sharpe and Frank Schwab reminds us, this is not the first time he’s done something like this. Coach, be a good sport. Your team has won this game five times in the last dozen years and the other coach spoke each time. Everybody loses. Get over it.

I’m tired of Coach Belichick’s antics, any time the microphone is on. You have a dream job. Be a professional. Smile once in a while.

2. Tom Brady made a dirty play during the game. At the end of the first half, Brady was scrambling and went into a slide. He raised his leg up at the oncoming defender like Ty Cobb spiking the second baseman. That bothered me. I’ve never seen this by an NFL quarterback.

3. Several Patriots were honored by being selected to the Pro Bowl and most of them have pulled out. Tom Brady withdrew because of injury. What injury? “The nature of the injury is unclear.” Winning the Conference Championship is your ticket out of the meaningless Pro Bowl game and since you lost, you should go. Just another instance of them being sore losers and poor sports.

4. I’ve been saying for years that Tom Brady is the best quarterback in the league and the best all time. It’s true that he orchestrates the best offense in the league, no question. He is the reason. They blow teams out of the water on a routine basis. But in an important game when the game is close? On 3rd and 4 and 4th and 4, the end of the first half, and several other instances yesterday, Tom Brady makes either poor decisions or very poor throws in very important situations. . He never throws deep and he was significantly compromised by the weather yesterday while Joe Flacco played a perfect game. I remember vividly in the loss to the 49ers last month, in the fourth quarter on a critical 4th and 2, Danny Woodhead (or another running back ) was wide open five yards away and Brady threw it over his head. In all their close games the last few years he doesn’t make the winning throw. I haven’t seen a clutch performance by Tom Brady in a very long time.

If my team was trailing in the fourth quarter and needed a touchdown, there are honestly many quarterbacks I would rather have than Tom Brady to lead a long drive. Aaron Rodgers, Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson, Eli Manning and Joe Flacco would all be above him on my list. I wouldn’t ever say that four years ago.

5. The whole Spygate thing was cheating. It didn’t bother me much earlier (if you ain’t cheatin’ you ain’t tryin’), but it’s an example that this organization has been a bit squirrelly in the past.

I love Rob Gronkowski and Vince Wilfork. But the rest of the Patriots (including Tom Brady) make it very easy to root against them, and I don’t think I care to defend them anymore.

Mistakes cost Manning and the Broncos; Ravens steal a win

Last week I said that a lot of balls would have to roll the Ravens way for them to win. Here’s what happened for the Broncos:

- Peyton interception returned for a touchdown
- Tried a long field goal near end of first half, missed, giving the Ravens a short field for a last minute touchdown
- Gave up 70 yard touchdown bomb with 30 seconds
- Peyton kneels to end the 4th quarter
- on 3rd and 13 from the 3, gave up 24 yard completion
- Peyton interception in OT

That is a lot of mistakes/gaffes. And there were more head-scratching moves. Late in the fourth quarter, the drive before the Flacco bomb, the Broncos handed off to Ronnie Hillman all five plays. Yeah, they burned clock and timeouts, but Peyton Manning is your best player! Get a couple first downs and the Ravens don’t even get the ball back.

The Bomb: how can you play defense any more poorly? The cornerback cover-man let Jacoby Jones run past him, and then Raheem Moore got caught in the twilight zone, somewhat going after the ball, not getting close, letting Jones get past him. Catch or not, there is no way that Jones should be allowed to get past the defender. If he catches it and is tackled, the Ravens are still on the 20 yard line down by 7 points with no timeouts and the clock running. Moore misjudged the ball like a bad minor league DH stuck in right field. The Ravens must just have a knack for creating braindead, last second, game-losing defensive mistakes (4th and 29 vs. Chargers, The Bomb, also a big 3rd down completion from the 3 yard line in overtime).

And then after the touchdown that tied the game, Broncos had 31 seconds, two timeouts and Peyton Manning under center, and Coach Fox calls for a QB kneel. How many times have we seen Peyton Manning take the ball under a minute and get the ball downfield for at least a FG try? (At least 3 times against the Patriots!) For both of the last two possessions, Fox did not give Manning an opportunity to win it, playing merely not to lose. It didn’t work.

What can you say about Joe Flacco? He wins games! This is not a great Ravens team. Even with Ray Lewis back, they are missing a handful of impact defenders. Ravens fell behind four times in this game, and Joe Flacco led the Ravens back each time, and the Ravens gained 479 yards on offense against a Top 2 defense. Flacco has led the Ravens to 5 playoff games on the road (yes, that’s more than Mark Sanchez) and 7-4 record overall. He plays his best games in the biggest spotlight. John Harbaugh has been the coach during that whole stretch, and you can’t underestimate his impact. People point out that Ray Lewis is old and a shell of himself, but he led the team with an impressive total of 10 tackles against the Broncos. Lewis + Flacco + Harbaugh = 3rd AFC Championship game.

In the chances he did have, I’m not impressed with Peyton Manning. Sue me. For his illustrious career, he has a 9-11 record in the playoffs, losing a bunch of games at home where his team was a significant favorite. The Broncos had a great defense and kicker last year, Tebow got them to the second round with a big playoff win. This year all I heard was how Peyton Manning makes the Broncos team so much better, he’s the MVP, blah blah blah. With a more healthy defense, the Broncos finished no better with Manning. This Ravens team wasn’t much better than last year’s Steelers team. Peyton Manning is a charismatic guy, amazing regular season quarterback, but unlike Flacco he does not take his team to wins in the biggest games. The Broncos even had two kicks returned for touchdowns and were playing an old Ravens defense. Peyton threw a pick-six early and the interception at the end of the first overtime lost the game.

Poor coaching decisions, dreadful defense, and two costly interceptions by a legendary quarterback. You can’t win a playoff game with that.

I picked: Broncos by 11. Outcome: Ravens by 3

Falcons survive Seahawks

This game, the one over the weekend I looked forward to the most, was what I expected. Atlanta benefited from big home field advantage and the Falcons (NFL’s least penalized team) were only penalized for 11 yards. Seahawks looked jetlagged to start and fell behind 20-0 at halftime. Russell Wilson showed a little inexperience at the end of the first half as the Seahawks were unable to get any points, even though they moved the ball into the red zone. Seattle turned it on in the second half and nearly pulled off the upset. In the end Atlanta won by 2 points, my pregame prediction.

The Falcons won, but it's tough to feel very confident going forward. Losing a 20 point lead at home in the fourth quarter, barely averting disaster with a field goal in the last seconds sends up alarms. Three things really bother me about the Falcons in this game. The first was the inability to close out and keep the Seahawks out of the game. Seattle had four long touchdown drives of 60+ yards in the second half. Atlanta couldn’t stop them on defense or get a first down on offense.

The second thing is the Falcons defense, especially the secondary. They are terrible tacklers. They try to get by on shoulder bumps and one arm grabs, and Seattle really lit them up in the second half. Watching the Patriots/Texans right after the Falcons was night and day, literally and metaphorically. In the late game both teams were great tacklers; Atlanta has very poor technique. I am going to start taking note of players who miss tackles frequently; they don’t get enough attention.

Finally, Matt Ryan finally got his win but he very well could have lost it. In the fourth quarter right after Seattle just scored, the Falcons had a second down in their own territory with a 13 point lead with about 11 minutes left. (video) Matt Ryan stared down Roddy White the whole time, telegraphing the play to the safety Earl Thomas, then forced the throw into double coverage. Not only that, it was a poor pass, overthrowing the receiver. Earl Thomas intercepted it easily, and the momentum was rolling Seattle’s way. The only thing that could save the game for the Seahawks were forcing turnovers, and that one was a gift. It only took them four plays to get the ball into the endzone and make it a 6-point difference. (The Falcons responded with a three-and-out punt.) That was a brutal play that kept the Seahawks hanging around. In four career playoff games, Matt Ryan has committed 8 turnovers.

On the other side, even though the Seahawks lost you have to feel good about their future. In my mind, Russell Wilson was clearly the best quarterback from this year's rookie class. For the second week in a row, in a road playoff game, RW, Pete Carroll and the 'Hawks shook off a big deficit to come back and put themselves into a position to win. Wilson threw for 385 yards, ran for 60 more, scored three touchdowns, and time after time ran away from defenders to avoid taking big hits. Unlike mobile guys like Vick, Tebow, Big Ben and RG3, Wilson uses his legs to get away from defenders and free up his receivers. The Seahawks were one defensive play away from a win, when Tony Gonzalez got open in the middle of the field with 10 seconds left. And even then, Seattle had a chance to win.

I hope (but I doubt) that this is the last we see a coach "ice" the kicker. It doesn't work. Especially on a 51 yard field goal, Coach Carroll messed up big time. If you want to call a timeout, do it much before the ball can be snapped. A 50+ yard shot is really a 50/50 chance, and Carroll allowed Matt Bryant to get a practice kick in before the real thing. He missed wide right the first time and on the second try nailed it right through the center.

I picked: Falcons by 2. Outcome: Falcons by 2

Patriots take care of Texans

It's weird. Without Rob Gronkowski and Danny Woodhead the Patriots and Tom Brady looked inconsistent passing the ball. Brady forced too many balls to Welker that bounced off his arm and Aaron Hernandez dropped a catch or two. Then I notice that Brady still threw for 344 yards and they scored 41 points.

Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, Daniel Manning and J.J. Watt all had really good games. After a slow start Foster was hard to stop the last three quarters. Schaub found and completed a lot of open passes to Johnson. Daniel Manning had three big kick returns that led to three Texans scores and 17 points. Watt and the Texans’ defensive line caused a lot of pressure on Brady. But the Texans wasted some opportunities, settling for just a field goal and four straight punts despite a poor start offensively by New England, and while the Texans gained 425 yards, it seemed like the Patriots defense was better than the Texans offense.

As they say, “next man up!” Losing Gronk and Woody left a void in the running and passing game, and those were both filled by Shane Vereen. Vereen was really the difference maker, picking up 124 yards and 3 touchdowns. Just another example of how Tom Brady makes everyone around him better and turns guys you’ve never heard of into big-time contributors.

Bill Belichick and Tom Brady had one of the strangest sequences at the end of the first half. In a 17-10 game, right after Houston scored their first touchdown, the Patriots got the ball back around the 20 with 1:09 left with two timeouts. They seemed to change their whole offensive gameplan, focused on what happens when we give the Texans the ball back. You have Tom Brady! Do something! It's like they had no faith in their ability to get a first down. As a result they didn't advance the ball at all, they didn't burn any of the Texans' three timeouts, and didn't burn any clock. They punted, a poor punt at that, and five plays later Houston was in field goal range before the half. A little more aggressive playcalling (or just smarter) and the Pats could have received the second half kickoff leading 20-10. Instead they led only 17-13.

It was a weird game. The Texans started it off with a 94 yard kickoff return. Gronk and Woody left in the opening plays of the game and the Pats punted twice to start. Brandon Lloyd was called for unsportsmanlike conduct for flipping the ball to the ref after a missed catch that took the Patriots out of the redzone. The Texans lone touchdown of the first half was questionable; it looked like Arian Foster was stopped inches short of the goal line and that would have set up 4th down. Then the goofy end of the first half that I just described. In the second half the Patriots defense forced a fumble but the ref said that a whistle had been blown for forward progress. New England still won comfortably 41-28, but it felt like it should have been 60-13. Seeing how the other elite quarterbacks fared (Peyton and Rodgers), the Patriots are happy to still be alive.

I picked: Patriots by 17. Outcome: Patriots by 13.

Divisional Round Preview and Predictions

- Ravens vs. Broncos
A rematch of the Week 15 game where the Broncos beat the Ravens by 17 in Baltimore. Now they're in Denver. Peyton Manning has won 9 straight games against the Ravens, and most of those were when Baltimore had a good defense. Denver has had an extra week to rest and prepare. Broncos have won 11 in a row overall. Sometimes in the second round, the team that played the week before has built some momentum coming in (2012 Giants, 2011 Packers), but that is not true with the Ravens, who stymied the rookie Andrew Luck but have not been playing great football as of late. Ravens have Ray Lewis this time around, who certainly gives them a boost emotionally, and Joe Flacco is playing in his 9th road game so there is plenty of experience on the Ravens in this situation. But a lot of balls will have to roll their way to win. Denver has the edge in nearly every single position. Broncos 25, Ravens 14

- Packers vs. 49ers
A rematch of the Week 1 game where the 49ers took it to the Packers at Lambeau Field. Aaron Rodgers has been on a roll, throwing 11 touchdowns, zero interceptions in his last 5 games. The defense stepped up last week in their blowout win over the Vikings, but at home against Joe Webb how much can you take from it? Aaron Rodgers is the best player on the field but San Francisco has a very strong all-around team. Their d-line will dominate the GB o-line, putting pressure on Rodgers all day and keeping the weak Packer rushing attack at bay. Colin Kaepernick may be a first-year starter but he can make big plays with his arm or legs. Following a week of rest, Frank Gore will have a big day against a generous defense (125+ yards rushing) and the 49ers will have at least 2 rushing touchdowns. Fun fact: Aaron Rodgers grew up in northern California as a 49ers fan and Colin Kaepernick grew up in Wisconsin rooting for the Packers. 49ers 33, Packers 27

- Seahawks vs. Falcons
The only non-rematch of the weekend's games. Seattle is on fire, winning six straight games, including one on the road in Washington a week ago. Falcons are 33-6 with Matt Ryan at home. One reason the Seahawks have been so successful this year is because they have the league's best cornerback set and a good pass rush, too. But this game they will be without leading sacker, Chris Clemons, giving Matt Ryan a little more time to hit Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez. I love Russell Wilson and this Seahawks team; I think they are the best team in the NFC. But being led by a rookie quarterback across country for the second week in a row against a veteran team that has been waiting, a team solid from top to bottom, I give the Falcons the edge. Falcons 22, Seahawks 20

- Texans vs. Patriots
The third rematch of the weekend. In Week 14, the Patriots demolished the Texans at Foxborough, leading 42-7 halfway through the fourth quarter (42-14 the final). And that was without Gronkowski. The Texans have a very complete team (star power with Foster, Andre Johnson and Watt) but look at the coaching matchup: Bill Bellichek and Tom Brady against Gary Kubiak and Matt Schaub. The Texans' two worst games of the season were against elite quarterbacks with deep receiving corps (Packers and Patriots); this game won't be much different. By the way, from what I can tell from the forecast, it should be 50 degrees at the stadium. Patriots 38, Texans 21

Looking ahead...

Falcons over 49ers 24-20
Patriots over Broncos 23-17

Super Bowl
Patriots over Falcons 38-21

highlights from the Rex and Woody show

On Tuesday, nine days after the Jets finished a 6-10 season, Jets owner Woody Johnson and head coach Rex Ryan finally sat down for their end of season press conference. It was the last of all the teams (that have been eliminated) to take place. Here are some of the highlights from it (along with comments from the peanut gallery).

- On former general manager Mike Tannenbaum, fired on Black Monday:

Rex: "I'd like to thank Mike for... all the blood, sweat and tears he poured into it for the four years."

Blood, sweat and tears? Are we talking about Jack Bauer or the Jets' GM?

Rex: "We made a ton of decisions together and they were always Jets decisions."

'We made a ton of decisions together,' so why is he gone and you still here?

Rex: "I know that I don't know who the general manager is, but I promise you, he wants to win as bad as I do."

Again, who is he?

- On Rex Ryan as the head coach

Woody: "I fervently believe that [Rex Ryan] has a rare ability on defense and… also on offense and special teams because he has had to fight against those, so he’s learned a lot and has great instinct."

Also on offense? Do you have evidence to support this? As for 'great instinct,' the only thing he has shown is "I believe Mark Sanchez gives us the best chance to win."

As for special teams, the Jets had the best special teams coach in the league and they still allowed two blocked punts (without blocking any themselves), three blocked field goals, fumbled the ball a lot, and gave up more touchdown returns than they scored.

Woody: "One of the things that impresses me about Rex as a leader is that he knows where he wants to improve and he’s committed to do that and I trust him because I’ve seen him lead this team."

Coming into the season, everybody knew the Jets had serious deficiencies on the offensive side of the football and Rex did absolutely NOTHING to improve it.

Woody: "I think he took us two years to a very high level."

Since when did winning the divisional round become the pinnacle of success? Marv Levy and Jim Kelly won four straight AFC Championships. Who cares??

Woody: "I have the ultimate confidence in Rex as a head coach, as a leader, as a motivator, as a play caller."

His team quit on him two years in a row.

Woody: [The potential general managers] know that Rex is a good coach and you can't always say that."

Who?

Woody: "No, I never considered [firing Coach Ryan] because of my confidence in him as a coach. Having been in business and in football for quite a while now, you can recognize talent when you see it. I hate to make excuses, but there are some extenuating circumstances that I think we can improve and get better."

Did he just make an excuse? When is it okay for a business to make an excuse? And would those extenuating circumstances include a lack of talent?

Woody: "I'm totally happy with Rex as head coach."

And, obviously, he is totally happy with 8-8 and 6-10 and missing the playoffs consecutive years.

Rex: "I think in many ways, I'm in much better shape than some [other head coaches] are."

Yeah, you can suck and not only keep your job, but get praise poured on you.

Rex: "I have an owner that's committed to winning, that has a passion for winning."

And is sitting right next to you. And has never seen winning.

- About the offense

Rex: "Last night, after thinking about it for a long time, I decided to make a change at the offensive coordinator spot by letting Tony Sparano go... I understand the circumstances that Tony was being dealt... I'm not saying Tony didn't do a good job because he did a tremendous job."

Define 'a tremendous job'

Rex: "Santonio Holmes was on pace to have a monster year, 1,200 yards receiving and 90 catches."

Um, Holmes finished with 272 yards and 20 catches.

Rex: "That’s why I’m so encouraged. You look at our offensive line."

You mean the one that allowed Greg McElroy to get sacked 11 times three weeks ago?

(question about having the offense he desires with Mark Sanchez as the starting quarterback) Rex: Let’s get the general manager and the offensive coordinator in place before we answer any questions specifically about players.

Quarterback is the most important position in football. You just admitted you don't know who your quarterback is. Where is your confidence coming from?

(question about not making what he wants to happen on offense after four years) Rex: "I think I have failed in that area."

Why are you still a head coach?

Rex: This has to get done, it's not a question will it get done. It has to get done. I've failed to this point..."

...therefore...

Rex: "When I mentioned the ground-and-pound, I think that carried over for years and years, but that was more based on really what was best for our team and the best way for our team to win at that time."

What about when you said it last summer? Were you basing that on the 2009 team or the 2012 team?

Rex: "I think before, maybe I misjudged the thing about I just want to ground-and-pound. Maybe I bought into that more than maybe I should have. But we have to have it. We have to have that kind of mentality.

Wait wait, we have to have the ground-and-pound? Or we have to have the mentality of ground-and-pound?

Rex: "I think back then I spoke about running the football and those types of things, I think they were really based on our personnel."

Yeah, and your personnel was not conducive to running the football.

- Rex Ryan rhetoric

Rex: “I can tell you this: as I look at it, we are going to be a dangerous football team. I can promise you that… You’re not going to want to play the New York Jets because I know the mentally that we’re going to take."

I think I've heard this before. Still waiting for results.

Rex: "We’re going to have a team and we’re not going to get bullied. … We’re going to be the team that you don’t want to play, that we are a dangerous football team, we’re going to attack you from the minute that whistle blows."

Just to make sure, Jets lost six games by more than 17 points this year.

Rex: "I have a group of core players that I think can be outstanding.”

I'm glad you think that. So do the Jaguars and Chiefs.

Rex: "There's no shortage of effort."

Is this the NFL or tee-ball?

Rex: I feel very, very good about the direction of the New York Jets and where we're going to go from this point forward."

You've gone from 11 wins to 8 wins to 6 wins.

(question, is there enough talent to go to the Super Bowl next year?) Rex: "Obviously there are a lot of things that we have to improve on. I think we just have to take little positive steps."

Little positive steps. They were eight wins away from winning the Super Bowl. Eight.

- Woody Johnson rhetoric

Woody: "I have ultimate confidence in this organization to be able to put a consistently winning team on the field. If you surround yourself with smart people, and people who are smart in a particular area, we’re talking football here, you’re going to get a good product."

Please define 'a consistently winning team.' Who have you been surrounding yourself with? Who are you surrounded by now? You don't have a general manager, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator, special teams coach or quarterback coach.

Woody: "I think everything I said in that statement that I released last week came from me."

Can you repeat that, please?

Woody: "Jets fans are going to have a great product. They’re going to be proud of their team and they’re going to see a very well-run organization that makes very good decisions."

Which decisions are those, hiring Mike Tannenbaum, trading up to draft Mark Sanchez, or trading for Tim Tebow? In the words of Trent Dilfer: "The Jets are dysfunction at its highest level in the National Football League."

Woody: "We’re going to try to get better, but our fans will stick with us because our fans love their team and we work for the fans.”

So will the writers.