Monday, February 11, 2013

is Joe Flacco elite? No!

(Februray 9, 2013)


The biggest buzz word in football the last couple years is “elite.” Michael Kay asked Eli Manning if he thought he was elite and Eli said “yeah, I do.” Then he went on to win the Super Bowl MVP for the second time. Right after that radio interview, Joe Flacco said that he was elite, too. Two years later he won his first Super Bowl and now many people want to say that Joe is now elite because of that ring and he expects to be paid like an elite.

So what exactly is “elite”? One dictionary describes it (and I like it) as “the most powerful, rich, gifted or educated members of a group.” So an elite quarterback is one of the most powerful, skilled, and successful quarterbacks in the NFL. The obvious key words are “one of the most.”

I believe that the criteria for determining greatness in a quarterback is the following:

1) Team success. A top quarterback leads his team to a championship and they are a fixture among the best teams in the league regularly.

2) Statistical Production. A top quarterback is among the best in passing numbers.

3) Being consistently great. Staying on a high level for an extended period of time, at least two consecutive years.

4) Leadership. A truly great quarterback carries the team and is the primary reason they are successful.

Let’s go through these with Mr. Joe Flacco to see how he fits.

1) Joe Flacco’s Ravens have been a model of consistency since he arrived. Not only have they been in the playoffs all five years but the Ravens have won at least a game each year. Nobody else in the NFL can say that. Including postseason and regular season, the Ravens are tied with the Patriots for the most wins over the last five years. This year they had a great run and won the championship, and that’s why we’re even having this conversation. This is indeed where Joe Flacco gets his highest grade.

2) As stats go, it’s not even close. If we could pick and chose Joe Flacco’s best career statistics and pretend they all happened in the same year, his perfect season would be this:

Yards 3,817; TDs 25; Comp% 63.1; Y/A 7.41; Rating 93.6; QBR 60.4

Compare that to the fourth best stat line seasons for the other great quarterbacks

- Drew Brees = Yards 4,620; TDs 34; Comp% 67.5; Y/A 7.98; Rating 96.3; QBR 64.4

- Peyton Manning = Yards 4,500; TDs 33; Comp% 67.6; Y/A 7.89; Rating 101.0; QBR 68.6

- Tom Brady = Yards 4,398; TDs 34; Comp% 65.6; Y/A 7.79; Rating 98.7; QBR 65.1

- Aaron Rodgers = Yards 4,038; TDs 28; Comp% 64.7; Y/A 7.78; Rating 101.2; QBR 69.2

There are two other quarterbacks that have won Super Bowls, and yes, they have both won plural. Eli Manning has been Super Bowl MVP twice, just missed throwing for 4,000 yards four years in a row, and leads one of the best offenses in football. Ben Roethlisberger has been to the Super Bowl three times, won twice, has thrown for 4,000 yards twice and has some of the most unique gifts and abilities in the NFL. Using Flacco’s best calling card and he’s no better than 7th.

And if you extend the conversation outside of those seven championship quarterbacks you would still put Tony Romo and Matt Ryan (maybe even Philip Rivers) ahead of Flacco, with Matthew Stafford and Josh Freeman up and coming. Add all the rookies and sophomores (Luck, Newton, Kaepernick, Griffin III, Wilson) in a couple years… Joe’s got a long way to go.

3) As far as being consistently great, Flacco has been great for four weeks. He’s never had one great season, never mind two consecutive. In regards to those six important quarterback stats (passing yards, touchdown passes, completion percentage, yards per pass attempt, passer rating, and total quarterback rating), Flacco has been in the Top 10 only twice (7th in passer rating in 2010 and 10th in touchdown passes in 2010). Two out of thirty. Brees, Manning, Brady and Rodgers are probably thirty for thirty.

4) For the last decade the Ravens have been known as the most physical, defensive-minded, ground n’ pound teams in the NFL. Since Flacco took over they have not been even a Top Ten offense. Oh by the way, Flacco hasn’t ever been selected to a Pro Bowl.

As we all know, the Ravens have won a lot of playoff games. That does not mean that Joe Flacco primarily led them in those games. In his rookie year he averaged 10 competions for 140 yards in the two wins; in their loss he was sacked three times and threw three interceptions. In 2009 he had two bad games with a passer rating below 40 in both. In 2010 he had one good game and one poor game (125 yards, 1 INT). The last two postseasons he has been great. Indeed, it can’t be disputed that Joe Flacco had one of the best postseason runs of all time this year. But as far as long term leadership, it just isn’t there yet.

By the way, the Ravens offense did not score a touchdown in the second half. Joe almost pulled a Matt Ryan.

Flacco’s got a Super Bowl MVP and I’m taking nothing away from that. But the nature of “elite” is that it is exclusive. Joe Flacco is a starting quarterback in the National Football League; that is a special group to be part of. It takes a whole lot more than four good weeks to earn the label of “elite” and be considered among the greatest in that group. There are currently four “elite” quarterbacks: Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees. That’s all. We need to see some consistent production and extended leadership before Flacco cracks into the upper echelon.

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