NBA Power Report

So football is over, baseball still has a month to go, and I don't care for college basketball, so I've been watching a lot of and following the NBA lately.

1. Lakers. Kobe Bryant has numerous injuries but they keep winning anyway. If you forced me now to pick the finals winner with my life savings on the line, I'd probably pick Los Angeles. They were 4-1 this month even without Kobe.

2. Cavaliers. If you read my last blog about LeBron James you'll know how I feel. He is the most completely dominating player in the NBA. Yet when the game is close he has this itching to be a hero launching the ball from downtown. If he cuts down his 3-pt shots and drives more this team will win it all, but not until then. And that might not be this year.

3. Mavericks. Mavs were completely disfunctional on defense before the All Star break (8 straight games allowing 100+ points) but after the trade with the Wizards they have completely changed around (7 straight since allowing less than 100, [excluding OT vs. the Hawks], including Lakers, Suns, and Magic). Dirk, Terry, and Kidd have been the best 4th quarter trio this season.

4. Nuggets. Billups and Carmelo are also huge in the clutch. Denver haas the NBA's best record against the NBA's best teams. But they are only 14-14 on the road.

5. Jazz. Most of the time this team runs like a well-oiled machine. For the first time in a decade the Jazz are not afraid of any other team in the Western Conference. Highest FG% team.

6. Magic. This is a strange team. Magic have a huge player at center who is #2 in field goal percentage and they have taken about 150 more 3-pt attempts than every other team. Perhaps they are afraid of Howard's dreadful free throw percentage but still... feed Dwight Howard in the middle and he can open things up for the shooters, not the other way around. But anyway, they still have the Cavs' number.

7. Suns. Steve Nash is incredible to watch. He's old but still probably the best passer and shooter in the league. Everything he throws up goes in. #1 offensive team, #last defensive team. Hasn't worked before, this year won't be any different.

8. Thunder. It's no secret that Kevin Durant is a superstar elite now. And he has some good players around him, too.

9. Hawks. For a team with high energy guys (Josh Smith, Jamal Crawford, Joe Johnson, Al Horford), The Hawks Atlanta simply shut down in the second half against Golden State and Dallas. I don't know why.

10. Celtics. Gave up a 13 point lead at home to the Cavs and two days later lost at home to the Nets. I thought this was the NBA's most overrated team so it was about time they showed it.

11. Spurs
12. Trailblazers
13. Raptors
14. Bulls.
15. Bucks. Highest they've probably ever been.
16. Rockets.
17. Hornets.
18. Grizzlies.
19. Bobcats.
20. Heat. With Wade or without?
21. Clippers.
22. Knicks.
23. 76ers.
24. Pistons.
25. Pacers.

26. Warriors. They don't win much, but they can sure score a lot with Ellis and Curry.
27. Wizards. Quick, name me 2 healthy and active players on the Wizards. I can't name one.
28. After trading Kevin Martin, the only player I can name on this team is a rookie, Tyreke Evans.
29. Timberwolves. Only 14 wins, but 4 were against Utah, Denver, and Dallas.
30. Nets. Win Saturday raises them to above .100 for the first time this year. And they finally matched the Jets with three 2010 wins.

Weekly Rant

A few side notes on football, baseball, basketball, college sports, and the Olympics.

NFL: Last week the Raiders signed Sebastian Janikowski to the largest contract for a kicker in NFL history. This is a year after they signed Shane Lechler to the largest contract for a punter in NFL history. That's great news for those two guys, but are these the best decision for a team with the #31-ranked offense and a defense near the bottom? In a quarterback league they have THE worst starting quarterback in the NFL and they are throwing their money to their kickers. This does NOTHING to improve the team! This is further evidence that Al Davis is the worst owner in professional sports.

Baseball: Johnny Damon signed a contract with the Detroit Tigers. Some quotes: "This is where I wanted to be. The Tigers were my first choice." "[Detroit] is where my family wanted to be." I wanted a place where I could win right away."
Let's rewind a few years. Johnny Damon was one of the most popular players in baseball and the most beloved Red Sox. He looked like Jesus. Right after they win the World Series he signs with the hated rival Yankees, becoming the most hated man in Boston (and the offers were like $12M and $11M, not worth the blow to his image). Right after the Yankees win the World Series his agent demands a raise that alienates him to that franchise. He's leaving a team that just won the World Series to play on a team that hasn't won a championship in 26 years and most recently missed the playoffs. And as to Detroit being his family's top choice, don't they realize Detroit is the deadest big city in the US?
I think he's full of crap.

NBA: Cleveland Cavaliers were the top team in the NBA and LeBron is the clear-cut league MVP. He has shown that every time he drives to the basket he can either make it, draw the foul, or both. He's unstoppable, a monster. So why does he keep taking long jump shots, especially in the 4th quarter? James has attempted the 5th-most 3-point shots in the whole NBA this season. He's #86 in percentage, less than 35% made. In their overtime loss to the Nuggets last week, he took 11 deep jump shots (mostly in 4th quarter and OT) and made 2. Take less shots and they win the game. In their next two games he took 12 3-pt shots and made 3. In the loss to the Magic, 3 of his 4 shots in the final period were around the 3-pt line.
I really like LeBron James, he's one of the most exciting players in all of sports, and I want to see him win a championship, but until he stops taking so many dumb shots and drives to the hoop more I don't think it will happen.

NCAA: Right now in college basketball there are more teams from the Mountain West Conference represented in the AP Top 25 than the PAC-10 and ACC combined. Only Duke appears from these "power conferences" in the rankings. Back up a few months, and in the recent college football season there were three MWC teams represented in the final Top 25, as many as the Big 12 and Big East, and more than the PAC-10. Mountain West is an all-around strong conference that deserves the same funding, opportunities, and respect as the so-called "power conferences."

Olympics: Russian skater Evgeny Plushenko is the worst sore loser I've ever seen (honorable mention to rapper Chris Brown). After coming in 2nd behind American Evan Lysacek, he immediately removed his silver medal upon leaving the podium. Some quote: "I was positive that I won. But I suppose Evan needs a medal more than I do." "If the Olympic champion doesn't know how to jump a quad, now it's not men's figure skating, now it's dancing." "I think we need to change the judging system because quad is quad." "Without the quad men's skating is women's skating."
Let's get something straight, this is not the competition to see who can do the best quadruple spin jump, this is a competition to see who can do the best 5 minute skating routine. There are lots of different elements. The new scoring system, put in place after the Salt Lake City judging scandal of 2002, does not reward a quad sufficiently to offset the deduction given if a skater doesn't land it well. I watched the competition and Lysacek's skate was amaaaazing, way better start-to-finish that Plushenko's. Sure, the Russian did a great quad. What about the other four a half minutes? Lysacek was better. Period.

One more thing: Who's butt got kissed in order for ice dancing to become an olympic sport?

Opening Day please come soon!

Pitchers and catchers reported to camp, which means that baseball is coming soon. And with football done that is not soon enough.

Just a few notes on the offseason and upcoming season.

1. Yankees. They are the reigning champs and it seems they got better. Granderson adds a spark to the offense and defense, Nick Johnson should produce nicely, and Javier Vazquez, if he does nothing more than eat innings, is a huge pickup that brings a lot of relief to an overworked rotation. I like Teixeira to really boom in his second season with the team and compete for the MVP again, especially with ARod healthy for April. Damon and Matsui were incredibly clutch in the World Series and throughout the season (Melky Cabrera too) and it seems unreasonable that a team could maintain strength after losing such important pieces, but this team can. If Posada can stay healthy and play at least 110 games then 103 wins and a World Series should again be well within reach.

2. Phillies. So the Phillies traded for Cliff Lee who won his first five starts for them and went 4-0 in the postseason (including their only two World Series wins), was basically their MVP after they got him, and rewarded him by trading him away without discussing it first? And yes, they got Roy Halladay. How could ANYONE do MORE than what Cliff Lee did for the Phillies? Are they any better with Halladay? NO! Even if he pitches his best season, it can't be better than what Cliff Lee did for them! 4-0 in the playoffs! Yet if they kept Cliff Lee even for one season with Roy this team would be the unquestioned World Series favorite. He wanted to stay there. Imagine Halladay-Lee-Hamels to go with Howard-Utley-Werth-Rollins-etc.! How is that not worth pursuing?

Anyway, they did get Doc Halladay, my favorite pitcher in baseball. The poor fella has played twelve seasons in the AL East. Over a quarter of his starts have come against the Red Sox and Yankees. He's 18-6 lifetime against the Yankees, a team that made the playoffs 11 of his 12 seasons. And after facing the likes of ARod, Jeter, Teixeira, Damon, Big Papi, Manny, Youkilis, Pedroia, and Evan Longoria (AND SUCCEEDING), he's moving into the division with the Mets, Nationals, Braves, and Marlins. And he has the best lineup in the National League supporting him. Hello 23 wins and another Cy Young.

3. Red Sox. Beckett, Lester and Lackey is as good as any 1-2-3 in baseball. Beltre and Scutaro are big improvements on the left side. The projected lineup with Ellsbury- Pedroia- Victor Martinez- Youkilis- Ortiz- Drew- Cameron- Beltre- Scutaro is not sexy but real strong. 95 wins should be expected.

4. Mariners. The M's won 85 games last year. Since then, they've added Cliff Lee to a rotation with King Felix; Chone Figgins, Milton Bradley, Casey Kotchman, and resigned Erik Bedard for a new start. Those batters might not seem like much but anything is an improvement to last year's lineup. Meanwhile the Angels have lost Figgins, Vlad, and John Lackey. The last time I picked Seattle to win 90 games they ended up losing 100, but this should be the best team in the division.

5. Angels. It's not just that they lost key players; it's that those key players all went to rivals (Lackey to Boston, Figgins to Seattle, Vlad to Texas).

6. Pirates will be the worst team ever to take the field. FYI, their best player is named Andrew McCutchen who hasn't even played a full season.

Saints and Sinners

Back to the Bungles

Just wondering what the Cincinnati Bengals are trying to accomplish. For a whole decade this has been the team without any discipline, lots of legal issues, drugs, arrests, etc. Let's try to clean up the team image, right?

Heck no! Linebacker Rey Maualuga was arrested for drunk driving last month. The Bengals have reached an agreement with WR Matt Jones, who didn't play at all last year "after he violated his plea deal after a cocaine arrest last summer." They are also interested in Adam Pacman Jones, who missed all of 2007, a man with a legal profile longer than some bills in congress. They have considered signing Donté Stallworth, a wide receiver who was suspended the whole year after killing a man while driving drunk. They are also going after Terrell Owens, one of the most psychologically screwed up athletes on the planet. Their star running back this season was Cedric Benson, a play waived by the Bears after being arrested twice for driving while intoxicated and resisting arrest (one of those being on a boat). Their other star player is wide reciever Chad Ochocinco, the biggest mouth in the NFL. I guess they need another wide receiver since they lost Travis Henry (God rest his soul) who had more run-ins with the law than seasons in the NFL.

Who will they go after next, Michael Vick and Maurice Clarett?

This franchise is so screwed up it's amusing.



I haven't written anything new in my blog since the Super Bowl, just in case anybody chanced to check out my pregame notes recently. I believe I was almost exactly accurate in everything I noted and predicted.

- Colts would not put pressure on Brees.
- Brees would be extremely efficient.
- Colts would make a turnover, Saints would not.
- Saints would score 31 points.
- Peyton throws an interception.
- Special teams advantage Saints.
- Saints defense outplay Colts defense.
- Colts disappoint.
- Saints win by at least 7.
- Very few penalties, injuries, bad calls.
- Exciting game.

The game also produced the most memorable picture moment in Super Bowl history.

Why I'm still picking the Saints

Earlier this week I picked the Saints to beat the Colts by a touchdown. Right after that post was published I got very nervous. Picking against Peyton Manning is never a good idea. Especially when he has been as good as he has been this year. The Colts are an incredibly focused team and well disciplined. They are 16-0 in "meaningful" games this season. They have demonstrated a very fast defense and Peyton finds a way to always get the ball in his receivers' hands. Plus, they are not playing against Darelle Revis who can take Reggie Wayne out of the game.

Peyton is incredible, but I do not believe that the Colts have a big advantage at quarterback. A year ago Drew Brees became only the second player ever to throw for over 5,000 yards in a season. And this season he topped 4300 yards for the fourth straight season. And this was even with a strong running game. Peyton Manning also has thrown 6 more interceptions than Brees.

Offensiv weapons: Outside of the quarterbacks, the Colts have Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Pierre Garcon, Joseph Addai, and Austin Collie. The Saints have Marques Colston, Reggie Bush, Devery Henderson, Pierre Thomas, Robert Meacham, Jeremy Shockey. I give the slight advantage to the Saints.

Neither of the kickers were kicking for their team at the beginning of the year, and neither punter is great. The Saints return game is Reggie Bush and Courtney Roby (top 5 in KR), versus below average Chad Simpson. Slight advantage in special teams to the Saints.

Defense: Gregg Williams is one of the best defensive coordinators in the NFL, transforming a weak defense to one that won 13 straight games and was second in takeaways (turnovers). They abused Warner and Favre. They are very deep at secondary with a bunch of guys led by Darren Sharper and Tracy Porter who can cover man-on-man pretty well. Meanwhile, the Colts' best player on defense is injured and they are sketchy at the cornerback position. They are still very fast and played really well on defense, especially against the Ravens and Jets. Last week was a letdown for the Saints D, but I still give them a slight edge on defense.

And about Peyton Manning and the Colts having the advantage of "experience": For having the best quarterback on the planet and winning 12+ games every year, this is only their second Super Bowl appearance. Coming into this postseason, Peyton's playoff record was not over .500. They fail in the spotlight a lot more often than they have succeeded.

The Colts are big favorites. According to the betting lines, the SB favorite is 3-6-1 in the last 10 years. (Giants, Bucs, Patriots vs. Rams ring a bell?)

My first hope is for a good game. And after that I won't be surprised with the outcome of the game either way. I would be content if the Colts win. But there is no overwhelming factor that would make me want to pick the Indianapolis Colts.

I think there will be some scoring, but not quite as much as everyone is calling for. I keep my pick of Saints by a touchdown.

Saints 31, Colts 24

Super Bowl Prediction

So this week Monday thru Friday is the most boring week of the whole year. Not because there isn't anything going on (which is almost true) but because the only thing you hear about or read is about the Super Bowl. Rehashing the same stories from two weeks ago. Dwight Freeney hurt his foot. I know. Everybody knew the minute it happened a week and a half ago. Peyton Manning is a good quarterback. I know that, too. Drew Brees has transformed a franchise. This also is not news. The Saints and Colts both started 13-0. That was news two months ago. So let's bring in every current or former NFL player or coach and ask them the same questions every half hour.

Oh well, this Sunday is the biggest sports day of the year so I'll cut ESPN et al a little slack. But I won't watch their stuff.

What I'm Really Hoping For This Super Bowl Sunday

Like I wrote last week, I have no allegiance to either team. So I'm rooting for a good game. Action, defense, offense, close score, few penalties, no controvery. Is that too much to ask for?

Who I Want to Win

My friend Ryan did reinforce my suggestion that fans of the Patriots, Titans, and Tom Brady never root for the Colts and Peyton Manning. So yes, I'm hoping for the Saints to win. I hate the "Who Dat" phrase (do these people want to emphasize that an entire city cannot speak proper English?), but the Saints are a good story in New Orleans, they've never won before, and Drew Brees has proven that he's a good quarterback that "deserves" to be a champion.

My Game Prediction

I think the Freeney injury is a huge factor in this game. With him playing hurt or without him, Indy will not be able to get pressure on Drew Brees. Sure, they might sack him once but I doubt he will get hit more than that. Give him time and he will find his targets downfield.

I have been hearing a lot this week that the Saints haved struggled on offense lately. First, may I remind you that the Saints led the NFL in points scored. They also scored 35 in the first half in their playoff game against the Cardinals and 31 more against the Vikings. This is a team that scorched New England. In the Saints' last eight games, Brees has thrown 21 touchdown passes and only 2 interceptions. Think about that stat heading into the Super Bowl. And the Saints also had the #6 run offense in the league. Is a Colts defense led by Dwight Freeney who can't even walk going to put pressure on them? Too many weapons.

The Colts have a very strong passing game, duh. The Saints do have a good pass defense though, that allowed one of the smallest completion percentages and intercepted a lot of passes, leading the NFL with 8 defensive scores. Peyton is not immune to throwing an interception; he had 17 picks this year.

Saints 24, Colts 17

Projected stats
Saints: Passing 260, Rushing 130 (390)
Colts: Passing 280, Rushing 60 (340), 1 turnover