Why I'm still picking the Saints

Earlier this week I picked the Saints to beat the Colts by a touchdown. Right after that post was published I got very nervous. Picking against Peyton Manning is never a good idea. Especially when he has been as good as he has been this year. The Colts are an incredibly focused team and well disciplined. They are 16-0 in "meaningful" games this season. They have demonstrated a very fast defense and Peyton finds a way to always get the ball in his receivers' hands. Plus, they are not playing against Darelle Revis who can take Reggie Wayne out of the game.

Peyton is incredible, but I do not believe that the Colts have a big advantage at quarterback. A year ago Drew Brees became only the second player ever to throw for over 5,000 yards in a season. And this season he topped 4300 yards for the fourth straight season. And this was even with a strong running game. Peyton Manning also has thrown 6 more interceptions than Brees.

Offensiv weapons: Outside of the quarterbacks, the Colts have Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Pierre Garcon, Joseph Addai, and Austin Collie. The Saints have Marques Colston, Reggie Bush, Devery Henderson, Pierre Thomas, Robert Meacham, Jeremy Shockey. I give the slight advantage to the Saints.

Neither of the kickers were kicking for their team at the beginning of the year, and neither punter is great. The Saints return game is Reggie Bush and Courtney Roby (top 5 in KR), versus below average Chad Simpson. Slight advantage in special teams to the Saints.

Defense: Gregg Williams is one of the best defensive coordinators in the NFL, transforming a weak defense to one that won 13 straight games and was second in takeaways (turnovers). They abused Warner and Favre. They are very deep at secondary with a bunch of guys led by Darren Sharper and Tracy Porter who can cover man-on-man pretty well. Meanwhile, the Colts' best player on defense is injured and they are sketchy at the cornerback position. They are still very fast and played really well on defense, especially against the Ravens and Jets. Last week was a letdown for the Saints D, but I still give them a slight edge on defense.

And about Peyton Manning and the Colts having the advantage of "experience": For having the best quarterback on the planet and winning 12+ games every year, this is only their second Super Bowl appearance. Coming into this postseason, Peyton's playoff record was not over .500. They fail in the spotlight a lot more often than they have succeeded.

The Colts are big favorites. According to the betting lines, the SB favorite is 3-6-1 in the last 10 years. (Giants, Bucs, Patriots vs. Rams ring a bell?)

My first hope is for a good game. And after that I won't be surprised with the outcome of the game either way. I would be content if the Colts win. But there is no overwhelming factor that would make me want to pick the Indianapolis Colts.

I think there will be some scoring, but not quite as much as everyone is calling for. I keep my pick of Saints by a touchdown.

Saints 31, Colts 24