should the Yankees sign Johnny Damon?

AL BEast Notebook – Feb 26



Johnny Damon was on The Michael Kay Show on ESPN New York on Monday, and immediately the conversation began with the Curtis Granderson injury and the new vacancy in the outfield.

—

First question from Michael Kay: “Do you have any interest in going to the Yankees?”

“You guys know that I would have tons of interest to go to New York… Hopefully it would be a perfect fit. It always has been. Have me for six weeks and then send me off on my merry way. That’s fine.”

Don La Greca: “You think you could come here and be successful? You feel comfortable that you could step right back in with Granderson out?”

“Oh absolutely. Losing Curtis Granderson is definitely a tough thing to swallow, but with the way I hit at Yankee Stadium and with the right field porch, it worked when I played with them… If they want to see what I can do, then I’ll definitely be interested… I hope they have interest.”

Kay: You would be okay with coming in until Curtis could come back?

“It was almost like that last year. I signed in Cleveland with the intentions of being there for one month until Grady Sizemore came back, and he never came back… I’m not going to hold any team hostage, ya know, if they want me they want me, if they don’t then I’ll walk, and maybe try to pick up somewhere else or get ready for the summer.

“Last time I played with them we won a World Series… I know the players there really liked me and respected me, and a few of the players ended up going there because I was there.”

Kay: Would you be willing to pick up the phone and call Cashman and go, ‘Listen, I could give you six weeks if you need it’?

“Well, I probably should. But I know how the New York media works, and I’m talking to you so I’m sure he’ll hear about it tomorrow.”

What about money?

“Oh no, money is not an issue. I mean, I’ve made plenty, and I understand that I don’t have a job right now so I’ll go in, I just want to play. You can give me the minimum, that’s all that I care about. That chance to be in the Big Leagues and shoot, the New York Yankees, I loved my time there, and I know a bunch of the players loved my time there, and it’s just a matter of if they want me.

“I still have that want to play… I won’t say I’ll be waiting but I will be listening, still get on with my life and if works out, it works out.”

—

I don’t know who initiated the interview, but it was a clearly orchestrated plea by Damon to get the attention of GM Brian Cashman. There were several key points that he made sure came across without subtlety. 1) He wants to play for the Yankees and wants them to know that. 2) He played well for the Yankees and is a good fit offensively. 3) He’s a good clubhouse guy and well-liked by his teammates. 4) He’s even willing to be a just a fill-in until Granderson returns. 5) He doesn’t require a significant financial obligation. 6) He helped the Yankees win a World Series.

The first thing that pops into every listener’s mind at the idea is “That’s crazy; Damon is old and washed up. There’s gotta be someone else on the roster.”

The problem is, there isn’t.

Damon played four seasons in New York. He hit 24 homers the first and fourth years, his on-base-percentage that World Series season was .365. He stole a combined 93 bases. He is now 39 and has probably lost some of the wheels, but even in his last full season starting in 2011 he still stole 19 bases.

So even an old Johnny Damon can probably give the Yankees (at a full-season scale) close to 20 home runs, 15 stolen bases, and get on base about 33% of the time. Not bad for a minimum pay veteran fill-in.

Would you rather go with Juan Rivera or Matt Diaz, two 34 year-old career fourth outfielders that both give you practically no power, speed, rarely walk, and hit .245? Or a Melky Mesa or Zoilo Almante, minor league prospects that are not yet ready to play at the big level?

Yes, Damon is a liability defensively. But on this Yankees’ team there are already offensive holes at catcher and third base (apologies to Youk) and showed an inability to play small-ball last year. They can’t afford to stick another offensive liability into the lineup. The offense should be the priority. And Damon is a career .352 OBP guy with over 2,700 hits who demonstrated he can hit at Yankees Stadium.

Girardi can sit him on the road or DH him from time to time if he is concerned. This is really a low-cost, low-risk idea. Johnny isn’t asking for much, just an opportunity to play on a team. If it doesn’t work, tell him thanks and good-bye and trot out Diaz, Juan Rivera or a minor leaguer.

If they just need to patch a hole in the boat for a month and a half, why not go for a Yankee hero? There’s not a lot to cheer for with A-Rod and Grandy out, Ibanez and Swisher gone, and Hal Steinbrenner sticking to a tighter budget. Just like picking up Ichiro last summer, Damon would add some excitement to Yankee fans and add life to the team. And like Ichiro, maybe he still has some pop in his bat and life in his legs.

The other thing that Johnny mentioned in the interview is that he expects it to take him three to four weeks to be ready in prime form. In other words, “Cashman, hurry and sign me now and I’ll be there Opening Day!”

I say yes. What harm would it do? The Yankees have a need and he can fill it. Now that I think about it, other than Giancarlo Stanton (who isn’t going anywhere), there’s nobody I’d rather see in left field at Yankees Stadium this April than Johnny Damon.

early starting-five eval: Tampa Bay Rays

AL BEast Notebook – Feb 25



Youth and pitching seem to be synonymous with the Rays of the last ten years. Every year they bring up a young guy late in the season who becomes a huge part of their rotation the following year; Scott Kazmir 04-05, James Shields (straight into) 06, David Price and Jeff Niemann 08-09, Wade Davis 09-10, Jeremy Hellickson 10-11, Alex Cobb and Matt Moore 11-12. Chris Archer is the next candidate for 12-13. They traded James Shields, one of their top two arms, along with potential starter Wade Davis for hitting and pitching prospects so that leaves some openings now. With a lineup that projects to score less and a division that looks stronger, the pitching will have to be as good as ever for them to contend in the AL East. They led major league baseball (including everyone in the National League) in team ERA with a bunch of kids you probably didn’t even know, yet still fell short of the playoffs last season.

Starting Rotation

Ace: David Price (A)

2. Matt Moore (B+)

3. Jeremy Hellickson (B+)

4. Alex Cobb (B-)

5. Jeff Niemann (C-)

In the mix: Roberto Hernandez (the artist formerly known as Fausto Carmona), Chris Archer

Down the road: Jake Odorizzi

Yes, you’ve heard of him. David Price is the best pitcher in the division, period. The former first overall pick won at least 19 for the second time in three years and with 20 earned the Cy Young award in the American League. The even-more-amazing thing about that 20 win season is that he had the lowest run support of any pitcher in the league. His career ERA is 3.16, which is even more remarkable when you consider he has pitched all four years in the unfriendly AL East. The guy is a stud and there isn’t much else to say.

Not all their great young pitchers have to be first overall selections; Jeremy Hellickson (2011 Rookie of the Year) was found in the fourth round, as was Alex Cobb, and Matt Moore was an eighth round selection. 64 starts into his career Hellickson actually has a lower ERA than Price, at 3.06, with 60 fewer hits allowed than innings pitched; remarkable for a 25 year old kid. Like Price he didn’t get any run support, resulting in a disappointing 10-11 record. Unlike Price he isn’t much of a strikeout machine, and he gives up a lot of walks. But like Greg Maddux and Mark Buehrle, as a contact pitcher he’s his own best friend, winning the Gold Glove in 2012. Sabermetric stat believers are somewhat skeptical as it seems he has been lucky; he has been among the league leaders in stranding runners two years in a row.

Maybe I’m just bitter because Matt Moore was a major disappointment on my fantasy team the first half of the season (just five wins at the break, 4.42 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) but he did turn things around in the second half. He’s just 23 and has potential to be a big strikeout pitcher (led the AL East in strikeouts per nine innings ratio) and possibly break out into the upper echelon of young pitchers. But I want to see it first.

Okay, that’s kind of the problem evaluating this Rays’ staff. Everybody is young. There’s a good chance we could have a rotation with four guys under age 26 in Moore, Hellickson, Cobb, and Archer, with the grandfatherly Price (just 27) rounding it out. The biggest thing going for them is the team reputation as we haven’t seen very much of the group. It seems any one of them could bust out with ace potential but it’s hard to tell at this point. And there is more on the way; Jake Odorizzi will likely be that late-2013-14 impact pitcher for Tampa.

There are some veterans on the team pulling for spots. Jeff Niemann (turning 30 this month) has been around a while, although nothing more than an average #5 starter. He’s coming off an injury plagued season where he suffered a broken leg and sore shoulder and made just eight starts. Roberto Hernandez (Fausto Carmona) had that brilliant sophomore season going 19-8 for the Indians in 2007 but has been nothing better than terrible since then. Now age 32 he’s got a shot but doesn’t seem to fit in with the Rays Way.

There seems to never be a shortage of great young arms in Tampa recently. But coming into a season where they just lost their workhorse (James Shields, leader in innings pitched and strikeouts the last two seasons) the young guys don’t have time to be prospects with potential; they have to be impact players now.

Overall Grade: B+

Pitching Depth: B

Biggest Strength: David Price; a bunch of great young pitchers bursting with potential

Biggest Concern: Youth; back of rotation

early starting-five eval: Boston Red Sox

AL BEast Notebook - Feb 23



The Red Sox have been Major League Baseball’s biggest disappointment the last two seasons as a club with one of the highest payrolls had all sorts of problems on and off the field. One of the reasons this was so strange is that before 2011 they were projected to have one of the strongest starting rotations in the league. Funny how that worked out, because last year they finished nearly dead last in starters’ ERA.

Starting Rotation

Ace: Jon Lester (B-)
2.Clay Buchholz (B-)
3. Ryan Dempster (C+)
4. Felix Doubront (C-)
5. John Lackey (D+)

In the mix: Franklin Morales, Alfredo Aceves
Down the road: Rubby De La Rosa

The field has definitely thinned out. It all starts with Lester and Buchholz, especially now that Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield are long gone. Jon Lester was outstanding from 2008-11, going 65-32 with an ERA around 3.3, but along with the rest of the Red Sox staff he did not have it in 2012, going just 9-14 with an ERA more than a full run above his career average. Lester has really good stuff. And since overcoming lymphoma in 2007 he has been remarkably healthy, starting at least 31 games five straight years. His strikeout rate has decreased for three consecutive seasons so that is cause for concern, but especially with Coach and former pitcher John Ferrell as the new sheriff in town, Lester is a prime comeback candidate.

As for Clay Buchholz, I don’t really think he is a great pitcher or much different than Joba Chamberlain, so Boston’s and many people’s expectation of him as a staff leader are pretty unrealistic. When you look at it, he’s only had one good year, 2010 (it was a really good one; 17-7 with a 2.33 ERA). Other than that since 2007 he has only started more than 16 games once (last year, when he was terrible) and while he shows flashes of brilliance, his combined stats outside of ’10 are pedestrian at best (29-25, 4.51 ERA). He is always injured; a torn fingernail, pulled hamstring, stress fracture in his back, esophagitis and/or gastrointestinal problems, so he is hard to depend on. Perhaps the no-hitter he threw in his second career start was more of a testament about his opponent (the terrible Orioles) than his own stardom. He is only 28 so he’s still got plenty of time to reach his potential, but one season out of five is not a good percentage.

The one offseason acquisition in the rotation is Ryan Dempster, a 35 year old that has spent his whole career in the National League. His career record is 124-124 with a 4.33 ERA. He did get a brief whiff of the AL last year as he made 12 starts for the Texas Rangers, picking up a 5.09 ERA. He had a pretty good half-year (though injured part-time) in 2012 with the Cubs and again in 2008, but for a 15-year veteran, one and a half years isn’t much. Now jumping to the AL East, I can’t believe that he will keep that ERA below 4.80 and be better than a below-average starting pitcher.




Today in the Grapefruit League opener, John Lackey is getting his first start in 517 days since Tommy John surgery. The 517 days with the Red Sox before that were forgettable, as Lackey was the AL’s worst starting pitcher in 2011 and not much better in 2010. So what are the expectations for the 34 year old? Well, pretty low for a guy slated to earn close to $16 million. But at least he seems recovered, healthy and in better shape. Before his surgery Lackey’s strikeout-to-walk ratio had declined five straight years and he missed some starts each season, so he’s far from a certainty but at least his paycheck practically guarantees they’ll give him plenty of shots.

Felix Doubront was one of few bright spots for the Red Sox last year, although a 4.86 ERA with high walk and homer rates aren’t too bright. Doubront, 25, is a strikeout pitcher, the only Red Sox with more than 1K/inning ratio. Unfortunately, the lefty showed up to camp with a sore shoulder and out of shape for the second time in three years, so he’s not off to a good start.

Sorry, but there’s not a lot of optimism looking at this rotation in Boston, unless Lester and Buchholz both bust out with great years. And the depth is pretty poor, too. Rubby De La Rosa, the top pickup from the Dodgers in the Adrian Gonzalez/Carl Crawford deal, is recovered from Tommy John surgery (seems like everybody on the team is: Lackey, De La Rosa, Lester, Dempster, even Coach Farrell) and has impressed the staff in Spring; he will likely be called upon during the season. Franklin Morales is a lefty that will get stretched this Spring to be available as a starter. But that’s about it.

The Red Sox beefed up their bullpen, but they are still a team with a weaker lineup, low-potential rotation, and little backup for emergencies. They are in rebuilding mode, but even that is questionable as their rotation includes Dempster and Lackey in their mid-30s.

Overall Grade:C+

Pitching Depth: D

Biggest Strength: Jon Lester

Biggest Concern: Injury risks

early starting-five eval: Toronto Blue Jays

AL BEast Notebook - Feb 22



2012 was a disaster for the Jays. Along with the injury to Jose Bautista the rotation was a total mess. The Blue Jays had twelve pitchers make at least two starts but unlike the Orioles, most were not effective. All due respect, but you aren’t going to have a great season when Henderson Alvarez, Carlos Villanueva, Aaron Laffey, Kyle Drabek, Drew Hutchison and Brett Cecil make 96 (60%) of your starts. So what did they do? This offseason the Jays made a splash in the trade market and stacked their starting rotation instantly into one of the best groups in the American League.

Starting Rotation

Ace: R.A. Dickey (B+)

2. Brandon Morrow (A-)

3. Mark Buehrle (B+)

4. Josh Johnson (A-)

5. Ricky Romero (B+)

In the mix: J.A. Happ, Chad Jenkins, Kyle Drabek

Down the road: Dustin McGowan

Other than inserting Justin Verlander and David Price, this is as solid and diverse a rotation as you can have. You have lefties and righties. You have hard throwers mixed with soft throwers. You have the reigning NL Cy Young and another pitcher with two no-hitters (one a perfect game). You have four former All-Stars. You have two older veterans that are still very effective and three players right in their prime (age 28-29). You have four pitchers that have been slated as an ace at some point in their careers and the other (Morrow) is good enough to be. You even have someone with a World Series ring.

I like R.A. Dickey (I think it would be hard not to) and he was so stinkin’ good last year. He is obviously a legitimate ace. But at the age of 38 and moving from the NL East to AL East, you can’t expect him to duplicate 20-6 and a 2.73 ERA again. However, he has a lot less pressure this year since he actually has quality pitchers around him and a lineup that will produce much more run support than the New York Mets. He is older but he does not have a lot of mileage on his arm so he should be able to hold up. Another great year (or two) is in store for the tricky knuckleballer.

Brandon Morrow and Josh Johnson are very similar: young power pitchers with very good stuff who have been injured frequently. I’ve been projecting Johnson as a top-flight pitcher in the National League for years but he kept getting hurt. Last year he was finally healthy (or at least made over 30 starts) but ended up having about his worst season statistically and was not helped when the Marlins tanked their season. Morrow was headed for an outstanding year until an oblique injury ruined his summer. Still, his batting average against and ERA were among the league leaders so if he can hang in there (and Johnson can bounce back in his new start), Toronto could have two of the top breakout pitchers in the AL.

Mark Buehrle has thrown over 200 innings twelve years in a row. He’s a contact hitter who doesn’t throw very hard but is a true horse, going deep into games because he keeps his pitch count down. He’s his own best friend, winning four straight Gold Glove awards. Frankly, his stats through the years are nothing to write home about but the Blue Jays know exactly what they are getting: a veteran who will give them 200 innings, 14 or 15 wins, an ERA around 3.90, and a couple complete games along the way. Not bad for your #3 starter.

After an 8-1 start, Ricky Romero tumbled terribly losing 13 games in a row last summer (with just one no-decision in there). He ended up being one of the least effective pitchers in the American League, a surprise for the guy slated as the #1 starter in town coming off a sub-3.00 ERA in 2011. Turns out he wasn’t healthy, having issues with both knees and his pitching elbow. If those are resolved and he is more comfortable, the Jays have a sneaky strength at the back end of the rotation.

Not only do the Blue Jays have a solid rotation but they have several guys ready to step in if something happens. J.A. Happ (now 30) has always been that #6 starter that can be effective if called upon (16-8 in 39 starts with a 3.15 ERA in cozy Citizens Bank and Minute Maid Ballparks in 2009-10). There is also young Chad Jenkins and Kyle Drabek down in AAA, and the once-promising Dustin McGowan should finally be healthy and ready to make an impact later this season. But most importantly, the guys 1-5 are quality arms that should prevent any extended losing streaks.

Overall Grade: B+

Pitching Depth: A

Biggest Strength: Top-to-bottom strength; breakout potential

Biggest Concern: New situations; three NL to AL East transfers

Hey, I thought it was supposed to be like...

Sometimes things don’t happen exactly like you expect, especially in the NBA.

1. Nets can’t beat good teams. (Four straight wins over teams at or above .500)

2. Pacers are a poor offensive team. (Drop 125 on New York Knicks)

3. Warriors are one of the more dangerous teams in the West. (Six straight blowout losses)

4. On the Rockets instead of the Thunder, James Harden will struggle in the second half as defenses gang up on him. (Scores 46 in a win over his old team, the Thunder)

5. Kobe is the only player on the Lakers doing any good. (Bryant is just 1 for his last 35 three point tries, dating back to January 20)

6. Lakers, Nets, Knicks, Hawks, Bucks, Celtics, Clippers and Jazz all want to make some moves. (All staying put hours from the trade deadline)

7. Grizzlies are mailing in the season by trading Rudy Gay. (Grizz win their 6th in a row)

8. Utah will slide out of the playoff picture as the Lakers catch up. (Jazz have won three straight and have a five game lead over the Lakers)

9. Knicks are a premier team in the East and are the Heat’s primary competition. (14-14 in their last 28 games, haven’t beat a .500+ team on the road since December 11)

10. Spurs are old and won’t be able to keep it up. (Won 15 of their last 16 games and hold best record in the NBA)

Just some observations. I guess it’s just one more reason why the NBA is such a great game.

Red Sox reel in Mike Carp from Mariners

AL BEast Notebook - Feb 20



According to NESN, the Boston Red Sox have acquired first baseman/outfielder Mike Carp from the Seattle Mariners in exchange for either cash considerations or a player to be named later.

Carp provides a bit of insurance at first base. The Red Sox signed Mike Napoli, but he still has issues with his hip and the Sox have not set a date for when Napoli will get into a Spring Training game.

The 26-year old Carp was projected as a potential breakout player after an impressive 2011 rookie campaign when he hit .276 with 12 home runs and 46 RBI in half a season. But he was hampered by injuries in 2012, making three trips to the DL and hitting just .213 with 5 homers in 59 games.

Carp has 77 career starts at first base and he has also started 48 games in the outfield, so he provides the Red Sox with depth out there, too.

Along with Carp the Red Sox also have Mauro Gomez and Lyle Overbay as potential backups for Napoli at first.

One question: Carp was a potential breakout player in 2011 and is traded before 2013 for cash or a player to be named. In other words, the M's are giving him away. Isn't that a little soon to give up on a guy who had the second highest OPS among rookies just two seasons ago?

early starting-five eval: Baltimore Orioles

AL BEast Notebook - Feb 21



No team had as interesting a year as the Orioles in 2012. Their pitching staff was a game of trial and error that statistically wasn’t very good but still put them in the playoffs and got them past the mighty Texas Rangers in the Wild Card round. The most amazing stat for the Orioles is that despite having just one pitcher throw more than 135 innings they still won 93 games.

Starting Rotation

Ace: Jason Hammel (B-)
2. Wei-Yin Chen (B)
3. Miguel Gonzalez (B)
4. Chris Tillman (B)
5. Steve Johnson (B)

In the mix: Jair Jurrgens, Zach Britton, Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz, Tommy Hunter
Down the road: Dylan Bundy, Kevin Gausman, Tsuyoshi Wada

Yeah, that's a lot of arms.

The Orioles didn't make any roster moves but their rotation should still be much more secure. I don't know why so many people expect the Orioles to take such a significant step back.

Consider this: In 2012 Tommy Hunter, Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz and Zach Britton made 65 starts (40% of the team total) and combined for an ERA of 5.66. They were terrible. Hunter, Matusz and Arrieta were in the rotation until the early days of July. Britton made some fill in starts later on. After that, Chris Tillman and rookie Miguel Gonzalez, with rookie Steve Johnson in a limited role, emerged as major and significant players.

If you combine the stats from their starts they come out to 34 starts and 201.2 innings, which is close to the expected season total for one pitcher. They combined for a 21-7 record and 3.12 ERA. 21 wins and a low-3 ERA! Those three should start the season in the rotation instead of that three-headed monster of Hunter, Arrieta, and Matusz.

That being said, Arrieta, Matusz and Britton are young guys with potential who can still step in and contribute should there be a need.
Jason Hammel is a seasoned vet who came out as somewhat of a surprise ace since he's been lost in Colorado for three years. He's not a star, but for a lower-budget team that didn't expect one, he looks good and capable of leading a rotation. After that it's a whole lot of promising youthful potential led by Wei-Yin Chen from Taiwan, who went start to finish in quality fashion as a rookie in America.

There will be a battle in Spring Training for those spots in the rotation. We know that Jason Hammel and Wei-Yin Chen have secured their roles atop. Miguel Gonzalez and Chris Tillman are likely to grab two of the others. That leaves Steve Johnson and 2011 All-Star Jair Jurrgens (along with everyone else) contending for that final starting spot. I've got no problem with that.

Should someone stumble or fall out later on, the Orioles have two of the best pitching prospects in all of baseball getting ready, Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman. Look for them to make an impact in September.

There is a lot of uncertainty with this group but there is nothing alarming or concerning. And for all the youth on the roster they have all gained big-game experience, have one of the league's best coaches of young players, and all seem healthy heading into the season. And they have tasted winning, something that had been absent in Baltimore baseball for over 15 years.

Overall Grade: B
Pitching Depth: A-
Biggest Strength: Potential
Biggest Concern: Lack of experience

early starting-five eval: New York Yankees

AL BEast Notebook – Feb 19



Despite the pressure and media microscope, pitching for the Yankees lately has had its advantages as the Bombers have led the league in either home runs or runs scored (or both) in each of the last four seasons. That may not be the case in 2013 as the Yankees will be without Swisher, Martin, Ibanez and A-Rod, so the room for error will be smaller.

Starting Rotation

(note: grades are based on rotation spot comparison, i.e. ace vs. other aces, 2 vs. 2)

Ace: C.C. Sabathia (A-)

2. Huroki Kuroda (A-)

3. Andy Pettitte (B)

4. Phil Hughes (B-)

5. Ivan Nova (C)

In the mix: David Phelps, Adam Warren

Down the road: Michael Pineda

For the Yankees to contend at the top of the division CC must be healthy and effective. There is no doubt that Sabathia is the ace, but he has not been dominant like he was early in his career or when compared to the other top-of-the-rotation arms. He has been great and dependable, always going 8 or 9 innings whether he has his best stuff or not, giving an overused bullpen a break every five days. But he is not dominant or overpowering like Price, Verlander, King Felix, or Weaver. CC is 32, has thrown a bajillion innings and is coming off elbow surgery in the offseason after having some arm problems in 2012, so there is definitely a wee bit of uncertainty. But even at 85%, he is still good for 220 innings, 18 wins, and a 3.30 ERA. You just wonder how long that body will hold up.

Kuroda just had his 38th birthday last week and Pettitte is on the wrong side of 40. If they are on you know what you can expect: Kuroda = 7 innings, 7 hits, 2 runs; Pettitte = 6 innings, 7 hits, 3 runs. Kuroda can pitch like an ace; he was stellar in June and August last year and overall pitched much better than his meager record may show. Bad things happen when pitchers get old; Yankees are hoping these horses make it through this year intact.

Phil Hughes does not exude dependability. Like AJ Burnett (before his total meltdown) he does fine and then gets bombed for 6 runs in 3 innings every four or five starts. He has won 16 and 18 games in the last three years but he has had an ERA well over 4. Hey, for the Bombers #4 starter he doesn’t have to be a hero; just make it into the 7th inning without getting shelled and take advantage of good run support.

(UPDATE: Phil Hughes is dealing with a bulging disk in his back. That's not a comforting start. So the rotation now has their ace coming off elbow surgery, a guy with a bulging disk, and two senior citizens. Ugh...)

The last two years we’ve seen Ivan Nova at his best (2011) and worst (2012). Of all pitchers in baseball, Nova allowed the highest OPS (on base percentage plus slugging) in the league. He got hit hard and often. Hopefully this was just a sophomore slump and he can get closer to his 16-4, 3.70 from 2011. If he struggles David Phelps is ready to take his place, so he definitely has some pressure early on. Speaking of Phelps, he is a young, quality long reliever who showed an ability to start if needed. There is depth if someone in the rotation goes down.

Hopefully no more than one starter will miss significant time before the All-Star break because Michael Pineda could be available around then. I know his reputation since donning Pinstripes is lacking, but a couple years ago in Seattle he was very effective, holding opponents to a .211 batting average, ERA of 3.74 and averaging a strikeout per inning as a rookie. He could provide some second half strength for this aging rotation.

Overall Grade: B+

Pitching Depth: B-

Biggest Strength: Stability

Biggest Concern: Age at the top

the Yankee dilemma

AL BEast Notebook – Feb 19



It’s never too early to think about 2014, even for a Yankees organization that has seemingly been built for “today, now.” Their best player, Robinson Cano is in the last year of his contract and the Scott Boras client is set to be a free agent. Should the Yankees sign him and for how long?

There is no question that Robinson Cano is one of the best players in baseball. In the last three years he has won three straight Silver Slugger Awards (voted best offensive player at his position in the AL) and two Gold Gloves (best defensive). His average over the last four years is basically .315 batting (.360 on base percentage), 30 HR, 100 RBI, 105 R, and 50 doubles and triples; outstanding especially for second base. He is the best Yankee, and especially as the “core” are on their way out, the Yankees could use a new “face of the franchise”; especially one with as contagious smile as Cano.

The better question is how long do you want to pay Cano top dollar ($20M+ per year) and what are you willing to offer?

2012 was a typical year, but Cano performed poorly in “clutch” numbers. He hit just .268 with runners in scoring position, .208 with the bases loaded, and for a slugger who played the whole season in the #3-4 hole for the Yankees, he had a rather meager RBI total (94). Cano had a dismal postseason (.075) that was well documented, and that is what Yankees’ fans and front office cares most about. Despite the smile, he is well-known for not hustling and seems too casual in the field, stark contrasts to the iconic shortstop next to him.



Hal Steinbrenner and Brian Cashman will be wary of a superdeal. In October Robbie turns 31. Joe Mauer and Ryan Howard signed monster contracts to make them a “Lifer” with their respective franchise and just a few years into both they look like terrible moves. A-Rod’s mammoth deal hangs over the Yankees like moldy leftovers that get worse by the day. Other huge contracts (Mark Teixeira, Vernon Wells, Carl Crawford, Jayson Werth to name a few) tend to make situations worse more often than better.

2014 will be a very strange season for the Bronx Bombers. Rivera, Pettitte, Kuroda, Granderson, Youkilis and Hafner will likely be gone. Jeter has an $8M option that he can kick in and I expect him to stay with that. Brett Gardner will likely be re-signed, but it will be no surprise if Phil Hughes goes. A lot is coming off the books but there will also be a lot of holes to fill.

The Yankees would be good to sign Cano for the long haul, but they need to establish limits. They don’t have to be cheap. They should offer and limit it to his 38th birthday, making it a 7 year deal for about $150M. The Yankees have been good about assessing players at that point and taking care of them if they are still performing. A more ideal position would be 6 years, $140M. But if Scott Boras demands 8 years or more than $155M, Hal and Brian better be willing to let him go elsewhere.

NBA news and notes (All-Star Break edition)

Spring is coming but the only baseball chatter is about PED use and the associated lies and scandal, so NBA is still king right now; especially at the All Star Weekend. You’ve heard they play no defense in the Rising Stars Game? That would be true; Team Chuck scored 90 points in the first half, and the end of the game was nothing more than a slam dunk contest with players on the court as spectators. I actually tried listening on the radio but it was less interesting than play-by-play of a Home Run Derby.

Here’s your NBA notes of the week, and there is nothing bigger right now than some guy on the Miami Heat to start things off.



LeBron James is playing out of his mind. His streak of consecutive 30-point games is up to seven, and after missing his last two shots (three pointers as the play clock expires with a big lead) against the Thunder his streak of 60%+ shooting ended at six. It is obviously still remarkable. If you go back 13 games these are his combined stats:

– 244 FG attempts, 403 points (31 average), 62% FG, 49% 3pt, 8.2 rebounds, 6.8 assists

That efficiency is unheard of. And his effectiveness is making everyone else around him better. Bosh is shooting 65%, Wade is shooting 49%, and the Heat have won seven straight and most of them were quality games (@Thunder, Blazers, Lakers, Clippers, Rockets, @Raptors). Enough with the Jordan comparison; let’s just enjoy the show.

1. Snoozefests. Speaking of efficiency, we didn’t see a whole lot of it around the rest of the Eastern Conference this week. Two of the key matchups were Bulls/Celtics and Nets/Pacers. The Celtics scored just 19 points in the second and third quarters COMBINED on Wednesday and still won the game. Neither team shot above 37%. On Monday the Nets shot just 38% but won as the Pacers shot a pathetic 34%. Brooklyn had cold stretches all throughout the game, missing 7 straight shots in the second quarter, 9 straight in the third, and 6 straight in the fourth. Another top team, the Knicks shot just 35% at home in losing to the Raptors Wednesday. Seems like a good time for a few days off.

2. Celtics. Although they have been winning games, injuries continue to pile up for Boston. Rondo, big man Jared Sullinger, and now Leandro Barbosa is out for the year. Of the guys that are left: Kevin Garnett (36), Paul Pierce (35), Jason Terry (35) can’t handle 40 minutes for 30 more games (even before playoffs). They don’t have a true point guard. ESPN’s Skip Bayless declared that they were the Heat’s biggest competition in the East, and then they promptly lost to the Bobcats. Boston is fortunate to have built up some space, but 9 of their next 11 games are on the road, where they have struggled, so things could change in a hurry.

3. Knicks. New York is sitting pretty with a comfortable cushion for the 2 seed. You probably think that they have been dominant. Well, not so fast. Since their hot 18-5 start when everything was going down, they are 14-13. Jason Kidd’s three point shooting has fallen precipitously since November, when he made nearly half of shots from downtown (49% Nov, 42% Dec, 32% Jan, 18% Feb). And Carmelo makes you scratch his head. Against the Raptors he suffered a right arm contusion. It obviously affected him as he made just 5 of 24 shots (and 1-6 from the free throw line). Yet he still wants to play in the meaningless All-Star Game. Is that leadership, putting your team first? They have had one of the easiest schedules of the first half, so things will get tougher from here on out.

4. Nets. Amazingly, the Nets have now won nine straight overtime games. Because of their inconsistency this season, Brooklyn has been in a lot of trade rumors (Josh Smith, Ben Gordon, Paul Millsap, Carlos Boozer). They haven’t gone for any yet. Rookie Tyshawn Taylor has emerged as a legitimate backup point guard in Deron Williams’ absence, so C.J. Watson should be available trade bait, as is Kris Humphries, MarShon Brooks, and Gerald Wallace (though I’d be surprised if anyone was interested in him). The Nets need another scoring threat.



5. Clippers. Altough Eric Bledsoe emerged as an effective player, the Clippers had a terrible time without Chris Paul in the lineup, losing 7 of 10, including a lot of blowouts. Since his return they have won four straight, averaging 110 points (after just 92 for the previous 10 games).

6. Raptors. I was pretty annoyed when the Grizzlies traded away Rudy Gay. It has worked out well for the Raptors as they have won four straight (including @Pacers, Nuggets and @Knicks). They have a tough stretch after the break, including two games versus the surging Wizards, Grizzlies, Knicks, and then a big road trip. They are not out of the playoff hunt yet, but they will need to win a lot of those games to get closer.

7. Thunder. Kevin Durant had a terrible game on Thursday against the Heat. He missed his first 7 shots and then fell hard on his hip in the first quarter, a play that would have likely sidelined anyone else in the NBA. For him it woke him up, as he scored 40 points the rest of the way. And yet it was still a bad game. Amazing.

three reliever rules to update

Here’s your latest “What’s Wrong With Baseball” discussion, and there’s not one PED reference!

There are few things in sports that are worse than a bad relief pitcher. Very few. No matter how great or intense a game can be, all it takes is a reliever who can’t throw strikes to bring the game to a screeching halt and ruin the enjoyment of a game. Last spring I watched an amazing Nationals/Dodgers game featuring Stephen Strasburg versus Clayton Kershaw. It was as good as advertised. Then Henry Rodriguez came in for the Nationals and couldn’t find the strike zone. When he did he got pounded, and he blew Strasburg’s chance at a win. The game went into extra innings and another reliever gave up a home run to the first batter he faced. In fact, overtime in baseball is worse than any other sport because it generally becomes a matchup of bad relievers.

One of the craziest things about baseball is how they score statistics for relief pitchers. And it’s not like one thing. The three most important statistics for pitchers are ERA, wins, and saves. Here are several things I would change if I were the commissioner.

1) Vulture wins. Last August, White Sox reliever Addison Reed came into a game with a 4 run lead. He allowed 5 runners to score, recorded only two outs (one being a run-scoring sacrifice fly), and comes away credited with a win. The day before, in a tight game between the Angels and Red Sox, Ernesto Frieri came in to pitch the ninth with a one run lead. He promptly gave up a home run to the first batter he faced. In the tenth inning he allowed another run. He was the winning pitcher of record.

Rockies’ middle reliever Rex Brothers (yeah that’s one person) blew 5 saves (leads) and still the back of his baseball card shows an 8-2 record. Ryan Cook blew 7 leads for the A’s and yet finished with a 6-2 record. How does that happen?

A few years ago, Alan Embree “earned” a win without even throwing a pitch.

The letter of the law is this: after the starter leaves the game, the pitcher on the mound immediately prior to his team taking the lead gets credit for the win. Look, that’s not good enough! There has to be some aspect of “effective pitching” to qualify for a win.

Solution: If a starting pitcher does well and leaves with the lead, and his replacement blows the lead and his team regains it soon after, give the win to the starter. Or at least, use some discretion on identifying who pitched the best and deserves the win. Vulture wins don’t make anyone happy.



2) ERA – inherited runners who score. I understand that baseball views the runners that cross home plate a responsibility of the pitcher that put them on base, but what about the guy actually pitching when they score?

Imagine this hypothetical situation: with two outs and no one on base, a starting pitcher gives up a single. The manager makes a pitching change, and the new relief pitcher walks the next three batters. He doesn’t even come close. The third walk forces in a run. After that he gives up a long fly ball to left field for the third out. The run scored goes against the starting pitcher’s ERA, one of the most important stats for a pitcher. The relief pitcher is removed from the game next inning. His ERA for the game = 0.00.

Actually, it’s not too hypothetical at all. In a Pirates/Cubs game last summer, James McDonald was yanked in the fourth inning of a 1-0 game with the bases loaded. The first reliever gave up a double, allowing two runs to score. The reliever was relieved, and the next pitcher gave up an RBI base hit. Even though McDonald left with a 1-0 game, he was charged with 4 earned runs. Those two relievers, the guys that were actually on the mound when all those runs scored, the box score shows them pitching squeaky clean. Couple base hits, that’s it.

White Sox’ pitcher Nate Jones appeared to have a pretty decent rookie season with a respectable 2.39 ERA. But then you notice that he allowed 24 inherited runners to score (44%). Suddenly he doesn’t seem very effective.

Enough with starting pitchers getting blamed for reliever’s shortcomings.

Solution: There are two actions, letting him on base and letting him score. Split the responsibility. The first pitcher is only half liable. Each inherited run that scores = +0.5 ERA for the starter and +0.5 ERA for reliever. Official scorers and statisticians deal with 1/3 and 2/3 innings pitched; I think they can handle half an earned run.

There is room for compromise. Runners on third already can be the sole responsibility of the pitcher who got them there. But for runners on second and especially first, it’s a team effort and the “blame” can be shared.

3) Saves. Under current rules, a save is recorded when a relief pitcher finishes a game his team wins and either 1) he enters with a lead of three runs or fewer; 2) enters with the potential tying run either on base, at the plate, or on deck); 3) he pitches effectively for at least three innings.

There is no more overly inflated stat than saves. I was thinking about how silly the save rule the same time that Jim Caple published this great article about it.



When you think of the greatest relief pitchers of all time your mind undoubtedly goes to Rivera, Hoffman or Eckersley. You probably don’t remember Quisenberry.

Some thirty years ago there was a relief pitcher for the Kansas City Royals named Dan Quisenberry. In 1983 he tallied 45 saves. (What’s so great about that? Jim Johnson saved 51 games for the Orioles last season!) Consider this: Quisenberry appeared in 69 games that year and threw 139 innings. That’s an average of two innings per appearance. (And with that heavy dose of long late-inning work, Quiz ended the season with an ERA under 2.) Compare that to Jim Johnson’s 71 games and 68.2 innings. Yes, that’s less than one full inning per appearance. Who was more valuable?

Quiz led the league in saves in each of 1982-1985. Let’s compare that to modern times. Jonathan Papelbon was the only closer to finish in the Top Ten in saves from 2007-10, the best four-season stretch of his career. Most people will consider him one of the current league’s premier closers, so let’s take a closer look:

- Quisenberry 1982-85: 161 saves, 297 appearances, 533 innings (+236)

- Papelbon 2007-10: 153 saves, 257 appearances, 262 innings (+5)

Translation: Paps, like any of the other 29 closers, rarely did anything more than wait until the start of the ninth inning to run in from the bullpen. My, how things have changed.

One of the toughest things to do in all of baseball is getting called into the middle of the 8th inning of a one-run game with a couple (or three) men on base. Yet managers nowadays will hold off bringing in their best weapon available so that he can trot on out to start the ninth inning with nobody on base in order to record as easy a “save” as rules will allow. And even stranger, the value for relief pitchers is mostly determined by how many of these cheap saves he can tally. Rafael Soriano just signed a $28M contract to pitch the ninth innings for the Nationals (as long as they have a 1-2-or 3 run lead). The afore-mentioned Papelbon is in the middle of a $50M contract with the Phillies. Heath Bell signed a $27M contract with the Marlins and then after being among the worst pitchers in baseball was finally shipped off to Arizona. This silly stat is killing the pocketbook of MLB owners.

What are they paid so much to do? “Don’t screw up.” That’s all.

Unfortunately, some guys can’t even handle that (John Axford = 8 blown saves, Alfredo Aceves, 7, etc. etc.).

Some more crazy save facts:

- August 23, 2007, Wes Littleton “saved” a 30-3 game.

- There have been two 19-run “saves,” in 1999 and ’96.

- May 4, 2012, Joel Peralta recorded one out in a game the Rays led by 5 runs, and earned a “save” for his performance.

- May 30, With a Mariners’ 12-run lead, Hisashi Iwakuma allowed five hits and three runs over three innings and received a “save.”

It’s time for a little prudence.

Solution: As Jim Caple writes, no more cheap saves. No more five-run saves.

“Saved” a three-run lead, seriously?

Also, each ballpark has a hired official scorer. Give them something to do; make them relevant. If a team wins a close game, let the official scorer decide who “saved” the game. Maybe it was the guy who pitched out of a bases loaded jam in the sixth. Maybe it was the reliever who pitched two scoreless innings. Maybe it was the setup man who struck out two in the eighth with men on.

Doing this would help managers manage in a more sensible way, using their best resources to give them the best chance of winning in the most crucial moments; not just helping some appointed player accrue stats so he can sign a fatter paycheck in the winter.

In 2011 Yankees’ David Robertson had a stretch of 10 straight strikeouts with the bases loaded. Talk about a closer! Craig Kimbrel is great (no really; he’s amazing), but what about Eric O’Flaherty, who allowed just one of 22 inherited runners to score?

Adjusting the save rule will allow managers to feel more confident at any point in a game, keep salaries for relief pitchers more reasonable, and reward the other pitchers that are the real reason games are won and losses avoided.

Youk starting off on the wrong foot, ahem, sock

AL BEast Notebook – Feb. 15



A memo to Kevin Youkilis: Yankees fans don’t like the Red Sox. In fact, we hate them. We don’t like you either. In fact, you might be the most disliked Red Sox of the last 9 years. We cringed when Cashman signed you. The only reason you are here is because A-Rod’s body is falling apart, creating a hole at third base, we need a warm body, and you were the last scrub left on the scrap heap.

Youk actually has an opportunity like Scott Brosius, Johnny Damon and Raul Ibanez to win over Yankee fans’ hearts. There isn’t much below him on the depth chart and he will have free reign at the hot corner. Coming off a .230 year with a zillion strikeouts, expectations are so low it will be hard to disappoint.

Making his first appearance at Yankees camp Thursday, Kevin Youkilis announced, “I’ll always be a Red Sock.”

Dude, look down at your shirt. Toto, we’re not in Kansas anymore.



Never mind the fact that his manager in Boston hated him, his teammates alienated him, and the fans couldn’t wait to kick him out of town. Once he ventured to the Dark Side, Red Sox fans want nothing to do with him. Why make headlines trying to endear you to that former fan base?

Now he’s in Pinstripes, teammates with guys that never liked him including a pitcher who threw at his head three times (Chamberlain), playing for fans that are very suspicious. Shut up and hit the ball they’ll change their minds. Get on base, thou Greek God of Walks, and they’ll be satisfied. But never EVER remind them that you played at Fenway Park for the home team. And especially that you liked it!

That’s like former senator Jim Jeffords telling his fellow Democrats in the hallway at the Capitol, “I sure enjoyed my time in the GOP. I’ll always be a Republican.” No one wants to hear that.

Youk, you are now a Yankee. The goatee is gone, as is any affiliation with the Red Sox for the next eight months. You have a lot of work to do and even before today you have an uphill battle fitting in with your new teammates and the local fans. Wait until your career is over before saying anything that associates you (especially declaring your eternal identity) with the enemy.

At least pretend that you want to be here and perhaps we will pretend that we are glad you are.

back from the doctor

AL BEast Notebook - Feb 14



A new year is a new beginning, and for teams that endured losing important pieces to injury last season, it can be like trading for an All Star without losing anyone in return. Here are the key players coming back to the AL East that missed significant time in 2012 on the DL and can make a big difference in 2013.

Toronto Blue Jays: Jose Bautista

The Blue Jays were 45-44 on July 16 when Jose Bautista injured his wrist. He played just two games the rest of the season and the Jays floundered down the stretch, going 28-45. Bautista hit 97 home runs in 2010-11 and was on pace for close to 50 again before going down. A wrist injury can impact a batter’s power even a year later but if he can regain that stroke it will a big boost for Canada’s team. After taking batting practice earlier this week he says his wrist feels great following September’s surgery, a good sign for the upcoming season

Nobody will be happier with the new moves the Jays made than Joey Bats. In 2012 Toronto’s leadoff hitters hit a pathetic .237 and batters in the 2 hole hit .247. Those two spots will be taken by Jose Reyes (2011 NL batting champ) and Melky Cabrera (.346 in 2012). Think of that incredible increase in meaningful at-bats for Bautista, who led the league in bases on balls in 2011 (by a wide margin). If his wrist holds up then Joey Bats will be set for an MVP campaign.



New York Yankees: Mariano Rivera

Honestly, The Yankees held up fine without Mo since Rafael Soriano was there to fill the void. But Soriano is now in Washington with a $28M contract. If the 43 year old future-first-ballot-Hall-of-Famer is his usual self the Yankees’ bullpen will be in great shape. If Father Time finally catches up, there isn’t anyone dependable to take his place. For the first time in Rivera’s career, the Yankees will not be those same Bronx Bombers that stayed among the tops in homers without Swisher, Martin, A-Rod and Ibanez so those ninth innings will be much tighter and save opportunities much more frequent. Mariano will be depended upon much more than ever.



Tampa Bay Rays: Evan Longoria

Evan Longoria missed over half the season with a hamstring injury and was limited when he did play. As a result the Rays had their lowest-scoring output since 2006 and missed the playoffs for just the second time in five seasons. With B.J. Upton and Carlos Pena out of town (and nobody brought in to adequately replace them) the Rays are depending on their star at the hot corner to carry them offensively, and they rewarded him with a $100M contract to demonstrate. Longoria was an All Star his first three seasons from ’08-’10 and he will have to regain that form for the Rays to compete in the AL East.

Baltimore Orioles: Brian Roberts

Buck Showalter did an absolutely amazing job last year keeping the Orioles around the top of the standings despite a ton of injuries and other disappointments (Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz, Zach Britton). When important bats went down early (leadoff hitter Nolan Reimold, the next leadoff man Endy Chavez, and his replacement Nick Markakis), there was always somebody to pick up the slack (Nate McLouth). No team was as surprisingly deep as the Orioles.

The one position the Orioles struggled replacing was second base, where they tallied an MLB-worst .273 on-base percentage. Brian Roberts, remember him? Roberts was one of the most productive second basemen in the last decade, leading the league in doubles from 2004-09 and averaged 35 stolen bases and 100 runs scored during that time. The 35 year-old former All-Star has been oft-injured the last three years and hardly played, but he’s still around. His injuries were back, groin, hernia and concussion related, so his legs are still fresh. Roberts is healthier now than he’s been in a long time and if he can remain so, he adds veteran leadership and production to the one weak position on the team, as well as provide a legitimate and proven leadoff hitter. The O’s made virtually no moves this offseason (gains or losses), but a healthy Brian Roberts makes the Orioles strong all the way around.



Boston Red Sox: John Lackey

I played baseball with a kid who got Tommy John surgery. After being great forever he suddenly seemed to fall off a cliff and pitched horribly. He finally discovered he needed serious elbow surgery. Similarly, it shouldn’t be a shock that Lackey pitched so bad before discovering he needed that work done.

It has been a rocky road for Red Sox fans ever since John Lackey put on a “B” hat. After two terrible seasons and Tommy John, Lackey reported to camp early, healthy, and 15 pounds lighter and will be ready to go this Spring Training. Opening Day will be 18 months since he went under the knife. Bostonians want nothing to do with him but hey, he’s paid like an ace; he can at least be a serviceable #4-5 starter. And that would be a welcome addition to a Red Sox club that finished among the league’s worst in pitching.

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Changes in Scenery

AL BEast Notebook - Feb 13


There’s still snow on the ground in the Northeast but the reporting of pitchers and catchers signifies, like the Groundhog, that spring is coming fast.

With such a busy offseason it may be tricky to remember who went where. Here’s a tracker of the comings and goings for the five AL East teams. To keep my sanity I’ve tried to limit it to players significant to this season (future prospects not be included). I may have missed a relief pitcher or two; they change uniforms on a weekly basis.

New York Yankees

Who’s New: Kevin Youkilis, Travis Hafner, Juan Rivera, Matt Diaz
Who’s Gone: Nick Swisher, Russell Martin, Raul Ibanez, Rafael Soriano, Eric Chavez, Freddy Garcia, Andruw Jones, Casey McGehee

Boston Red Sox

Who’s New: Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, Joel Hanrahan, Ryan Dempster, Stephen Drew, Jonny Gomes, David Ross, Koji Uehara
Who’s Gone: Cody Ross, Daisuke Matsuzaka, James Loney, Vicente Padilla, Aaron Cook, Mark Melancon

Toronto Blue Jays

Who’s New: Jose Reyes, Melky Cabrera, R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Emilio Bonifacio, Maicer Izturis, Josh Thole, Mark DeRosa, Henry Blanco
Who’s Gone: Yunel Escobar, Kelly Johnson, Jeff Mathis, Henderson Alvarez, Adeiny Hechavarria, Jason Frasor, Carlos Villanueva

Baltimore Orioles

Who’s New: Danny Valencia, Jair Jurrgens
Who’s Gone: Mark Reynolds

Tampa Bay Rays

Who’s New: Yunel Escobar, Kelly Johnson, James Loney, Roberto Hernandez
Who’s Gone: B.J. Upton, James Shields, Carlos Pena, Wade Davis, J.P. Howell, Jeff Keppinger, Elliot Johnson, Reid Brignac

Let me know if I’m missing anyone (although if it’s a reliever, he may be gone again before you hit ‘Enter’).

is Joe Flacco elite? No!

(Februray 9, 2013)

The biggest buzz word in football the last couple years is “elite.” Michael Kay asked Eli Manning if he thought he was elite and Eli said “yeah, I do.” Then he went on to win the Super Bowl MVP for the second time. Right after that radio interview, Joe Flacco said that he was elite, too. Two years later he won his first Super Bowl and now many people want to say that Joe is now elite because of that ring and he expects to be paid like an elite.

So what exactly is “elite”? One dictionary describes it (and I like it) as “the most powerful, rich, gifted or educated members of a group.” So an elite quarterback is one of the most powerful, skilled, and successful quarterbacks in the NFL. The obvious key words are “one of the most.”

I believe that the criteria for determining greatness in a quarterback is the following:

1) Team success. A top quarterback leads his team to a championship and they are a fixture among the best teams in the league regularly.

2) Statistical Production. A top quarterback is among the best in passing numbers.

3) Being consistently great. Staying on a high level for an extended period of time, at least two consecutive years.

4) Leadership. A truly great quarterback carries the team and is the primary reason they are successful.

Let’s go through these with Mr. Joe Flacco to see how he fits.

1) Joe Flacco’s Ravens have been a model of consistency since he arrived. Not only have they been in the playoffs all five years but the Ravens have won at least a game each year. Nobody else in the NFL can say that. Including postseason and regular season, the Ravens are tied with the Patriots for the most wins over the last five years. This year they had a great run and won the championship, and that’s why we’re even having this conversation. This is indeed where Joe Flacco gets his highest grade.

2) As stats go, it’s not even close. If we could pick and chose Joe Flacco’s best career statistics and pretend they all happened in the same year, his perfect season would be this:

Yards 3,817; TDs 25; Comp% 63.1; Y/A 7.41; Rating 93.6; QBR 60.4

Compare that to the fourth best stat line seasons for the other great quarterbacks

- Drew Brees = Yards 4,620; TDs 34; Comp% 67.5; Y/A 7.98; Rating 96.3; QBR 64.4

- Peyton Manning = Yards 4,500; TDs 33; Comp% 67.6; Y/A 7.89; Rating 101.0; QBR 68.6

- Tom Brady = Yards 4,398; TDs 34; Comp% 65.6; Y/A 7.79; Rating 98.7; QBR 65.1

- Aaron Rodgers = Yards 4,038; TDs 28; Comp% 64.7; Y/A 7.78; Rating 101.2; QBR 69.2

There are two other quarterbacks that have won Super Bowls, and yes, they have both won plural. Eli Manning has been Super Bowl MVP twice, just missed throwing for 4,000 yards four years in a row, and leads one of the best offenses in football. Ben Roethlisberger has been to the Super Bowl three times, won twice, has thrown for 4,000 yards twice and has some of the most unique gifts and abilities in the NFL. Using Flacco’s best calling card and he’s no better than 7th.

And if you extend the conversation outside of those seven championship quarterbacks you would still put Tony Romo and Matt Ryan (maybe even Philip Rivers) ahead of Flacco, with Matthew Stafford and Josh Freeman up and coming. Add all the rookies and sophomores (Luck, Newton, Kaepernick, Griffin III, Wilson) in a couple years… Joe’s got a long way to go.

3) As far as being consistently great, Flacco has been great for four weeks. He’s never had one great season, never mind two consecutive. In regards to those six important quarterback stats (passing yards, touchdown passes, completion percentage, yards per pass attempt, passer rating, and total quarterback rating), Flacco has been in the Top 10 only twice (7th in passer rating in 2010 and 10th in touchdown passes in 2010). Two out of thirty. Brees, Manning, Brady and Rodgers are probably thirty for thirty.

4) For the last decade the Ravens have been known as the most physical, defensive-minded, ground n’ pound teams in the NFL. Since Flacco took over they have not been even a Top Ten offense. Oh by the way, Flacco hasn’t ever been selected to a Pro Bowl.

As we all know, the Ravens have won a lot of playoff games. That does not mean that Joe Flacco primarily led them in those games. In his rookie year he averaged 10 competions for 140 yards in the two wins; in their loss he was sacked three times and threw three interceptions. In 2009 he had two bad games with a passer rating below 40 in both. In 2010 he had one good game and one poor game (125 yards, 1 INT). The last two postseasons he has been great. Indeed, it can’t be disputed that Joe Flacco had one of the best postseason runs of all time this year. But as far as long term leadership, it just isn’t there yet.

By the way, the Ravens offense did not score a touchdown in the second half. Joe almost pulled a Matt Ryan.

Flacco’s got a Super Bowl MVP and I’m taking nothing away from that. But the nature of “elite” is that it is exclusive. Joe Flacco is a starting quarterback in the National Football League; that is a special group to be part of. It takes a whole lot more than four good weeks to earn the label of “elite” and be considered among the greatest in that group. There are currently four “elite” quarterbacks: Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees. That’s all. We need to see some consistent production and extended leadership before Flacco cracks into the upper echelon.

NBA news and notes

(February 8, 2013)

The football season is finally over and with five weeks before March Madness sets in, NBA is king right now. Outside of Lakerland (the NBA’s equivalent to Jets camp), here are 7 weekly tidbits, starting with the biggest story, the Boston Celtics.

When Rajon Rondo went down the C’s were 20-23, the 8th seed, and desperation was setting in. Since then, the C’s are 6-0. (And actually, on Jan 7 the C’s beat the Knicks at MSG without Rondo too, so that is 7 in a row without Rondo.) It is quite remarkable that Boston continues to win without their best player (as well as backup big man Jared Sullinger). So the big question is, are the Celtics better without Rondo? They lost their last six games that he played and they’ve won their last seven that he hasn’t been active. Short term, in limited doses, the rest of the team can rally around this with a sense of urgency. Role players have a new opportunity to step up and show that they deserve more time. A couple weeks ago the Hawks had lost six in a row, were facing the Nets who had won 7 in a row, and they were missing suspended Josh Smith, one of their best players. They blew out the Nets. But over the long term, Rondo is one of the top point guard generals in the NBA and the Celtics will not be able to maintain this for the next thirty games.

The C’s have been streaky all year. Before this streak they had lost 6 in a row, and before that they won 6 in a row. Prior to that run they lost 8 of 10. The streaks tend to correspond with home/road trips. Coming up, the Celtics have a run playing 9 out of 11 games on the road. My prediction: on March 11 the Boston Celtics will be 30-32 and back in the 8th seed.

1. Warriors. It was a rough couple days for the Golden State Warriors, especially on defense. On Tuesday and Wednesday the Warriors played in Houston and Oklahoma City, gave up 259 points, allowed over 50% shooting both games, and got outscored by 52 points.

2. Grizzlies. Last week Memphis was 29-15, the 4th seed, and had one of the best balanced teams in the NBA. Then they traded Rudy Gay, have gone 1-3, and if they lose tonight to the Warriors they will be sitting in the #6 spot.

3. Nuggets. Has anyone had as impressive a season as Denver? By the New Year the Nuggets had played 22 of 32 games on the road and still managed to survive above .500, including wins at Golden State, Memphis and Indiana. The 2013 Nuggets have had nearly all their games in Denver but have still had a tough schedule with ten games against currently playoff-seeded teams. They’ve won nine of those, including six among their current eight game winning streak. Can you even name Denver’s best player?

4. Nets. With 2:33 left in the game, Nets had an 83-82 lead over the Lakers on Tuesday night in Brooklyn. Even without Dwight Howard, Pau Gasol, and Metta World Peace the Lakers scored the next and last 10 points. And Kobe did this. Deron Williams and Joe Johnson disappeared, and had Gerald Wallace also disappeared Brooklyn would have been better off. It was the Nets worst loss of the season.

5. Clippers. On January 20, the Clippers had the NBA’s best record at 32-9. Starting in the next game, when Chris Paul reaggravated his bad knee and was obviously compromised (1-7, only 4 points, hasn’t played since) the “other team in L.A.” lost 7 of 9 games, including games to the Wizards, Raptors, and Suns. It makes it hard to disagree that Chris Paul is one of the most valuable players in the NBA.

6. Wizards. Speaking of them, is any team more unpredictable and inconsistent than the one on D.C.? The Wizards started 0-12 and are now 0-6 this season against the Bobcats, Cavaliers and Kings, yet they have wins over the Clippers, Knicks, Bulls, Nuggets, Thunder, Hawks, and Heat. Including the 25-24 Blazers, nine of Washington’s thirteen wins are against teams over .500. Look out Brooklyn.

7. Heat. Well, this is actually a LeBron James note. In a stretch of three games from the 4th quarter in Toronto, against the Bobcats, and the 1st quarter against the Rockets, James took 21 shots and made 20 of them. And replays show on the one he missed Bismack Biyombo clearly fouled him three times.

Last season LeBron had the highest Player Efficiency Rating (PER) in NBA history; this year he could be even better. After last year’s career best in field goal and three-point percentage, he’s now shooting even 25 points higher inside the arc and 46 points higher beyond. He’s also on pace for career-bests in rebounds and fewest turnovers. He’s a shoe-in for his fifth MVP in six seasons. However, his free throw shooting is his lowest in six years. At least we know he’s still mortal.

why the San Francisco 49ers DID NOT win

(Feb 4, 2013)

It was an amazing Super Bowl. I spoke up vocally in favor of the 49ers but my pick did not pan out. My apologies to anyone who lost money because of me (yeah right). In a game decided by only 3 points, there were eight big reasons that made the difference between 49ers winning and losing.

8. Dug too big of a hole. Niners have done (and did) a great job of cutting deficits and making big comebacks this year. Unlike the 1980 USA hockey team, eventually that will catch up to them. San Francisco fell in a 28-6 hole early in the second half that was just too deep to get out of.

7. Game mismanagement. 49ers had second and goal from the 5 at the two minute warning. From that point on Colin Kaepernick attempted three forced passes to Crabtree that all fell incomplete. Why not keep the ball on the ground? Frank Gore’s previous three carries 62 yards (20 yards per carry). Kaepernick averaged 9 yards a carry for the game. The 49ers were very effective running the ball all day. The previous drive on the two-point attempt (for the tie) it was a similar situation; Baltimore had everybody on the line and sent the kitchen sink at Kaepernick. He hastily threw the ball away. Why not try running through the line, or finding a hole? Kaepernick has a great arm but at this point he just doesn’t have the experience. Use his legs or Gore’s legs in those situations.

6. Mistakes. 49ers made four huge mistakes that put them in the big hole.

a. On the first Ravens drive, on third down and 9, Flacco threw an incomplete pass. But the 49ers (two players) were called for offside, and on the next play Flacco threw to Boldin for a touchdown. (Difference of 4 points, final score difference 3 points?)

b. The fumble by LaMichael James was just a disaster from the start. On first and ten from the Baltimore 24, James got hit by six different Ravens before he even reached the line of scrimmage, and it was the sixth guy that knocked the ball out. Should have just sucked it up and taken the loss of yards instead of fighting an unwinnable fight. That cost them at least 3 points.

c. The first play of the 49ers next possession Colin Kaepernick threw his worst pass of the day. He had plenty of protection but he sailed a weak throw ten yards pass the intended receiver right into the hands of Ed Reed, the all-time best playoff ball hawk. A quarterback should know where that guy is at all times.

d. To begin the second half the 49ers gave up a 108 yard kickoff return. That is a major blunder that left the game at 28-6.

Four huge, costly mistakes for the 49ers. Ravens just had two (the Ray Rice fumble and the ‘running into the kicker penalty’). That’s the difference in the game.

5. Bad call by the ref at the end. On fourth and goal from the 5, Jimmy Smith grabbed Michael Crabtree and held on for 3-4 seconds. The ball was in the air. Crabtree would have had a play at the ball. It should have been first and goal from the 1 (or at least, first and goal from inside the 3). There was no flag thrown. In any other moment in any other game that is a flag. The refs have thrown flags for pass interference all season long in record fashion, yet in the biggest moment when it is so deliberate, they let it go. Holding or PI, they have to call that. It was a bad no-call and it changed the outcome of the game.

4. Dropped pass. Before that missed fourth and goal at the end, 49ers had a chance to score. On first and 10 from the San Fran 36, Kaepernick ran a play action deep pass to Vernon Davis. It was a perfect throw, but Davis just dropped it off his finger tips. If he catches it there’s a good chance he goes all the way for a go-ahead touchdown. As you read later, it’s the receivers that make the difference.

3. Chris Culliver. As if his homophobic comments earlier in the week weren’t bad enough, he was terrible in the game, absolutely terrible. Joe Flacco knew it, and went to him whenever a big play was needed. He was burned three times on third-and-long that cost the game. In the first quarter on third and 7, a broken play hail mary heave finds his receiver for a huge gain right in front of him. Yes, that’s him, #29.

In the second quarter on third down and 10, he got burned, jumped over the receiver (touch him and he’s down), and then failed to make a tackle (yes, three on one play), allowing a 56 yard touchdown.

In the fourth quarter trailing by 2, he made a terrible pass interference penalty that otherwise would have set up a fourth down punt. Instead, the Ravens moved along and kicked the game-winning field goal.

Make just one of those plays, it’s a different outcome.

2. Too conservative. Especially in the first half, the 49ers were way too conservative in their offensive approach.

a. Twice in the first half on third-and-long, the 49ers handed off to Frank Gore, preceding punts. (Both punts were followed by Baltimore touchdown drives.)

b. Twice early in the second half, trailing 28-6, on first down and 10 on their own side of the field, 49ers ran little draw play handoffs up the middle for 3 yard gains. There was no urgency.

c. After the power delay, on third down and 13, Kaepernick dumped it off to a running back who gained 6 yards, and then they punted from around midfield down by 22 points. They had half hour to plan what to run and that was all they could do? If you are going to try for short yardage on third down, go for it on fourth! You are down by three touchdowns in the Super Bowl!

Compare those moments to what John Harbaugh and the Ravens did, trying a fake field goal, returning a kick from the back of the endzone, etc. Baltimore was much more aggressive, and the football gods smile on those who play aggressively.

1. Ravens receivers. Flacco was named MVP, but it was his receivers that made all the amazing plays. Jacoby Jones, Anquan Boldin, and Ed Dickson were outstanding all game long, making big catch after big catch, pulling the ball out of the air. Just like David Tyree, Santonio Holmes, and Mario Manningham, that’s what it takes to win the Super Bowl, some amazing catches by the receivers.

why the San Francisco 49ers will win

Super Week and the media circus is finally over. We've had enough of Manti Te'o, Lance Armstrong, A-Rod, Ray Lewis' twelve year old trial, and deer antler spray. Finally there's a real game to talk about. Here are the five reasons I’m picking the Niners.

5. 49ers have the best players. They’ve had the best ensemble for the last two years (only missing out on the Super Bowl after two special team blunders by fill-in return man Kyle Williams in an OT game). They have better receivers (Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis with Randy Moss in the redzone), better linebackers (three Pro Bowlers; Patrick Willis, Aldon Smith, Navarro Bowman), and probably the best o-line and d-line in the league. Unlike the Patriots (who also have a ton of good players), the Niners are incredibly physical and great tacklers. Nobody allowed fewer yards after the catch than San Fran. The Ravens do have some legends, but many of them are past their prime at the end of their careers.

4. Who cares about momentum? Everyone interested in this game (that would be every American with a heart beat) says that Baltimore has a lot of momentum going for them right now and that’s why anybody picking the Ravens is picking the Ravens. Well guess what: after 13 days between games momentum is gone. Now it comes down to talent and execution. You know where I stand on the assessment of talent. In five of the last six games of the regular season the Ravens were terrible. Now that “The Return of Ray Lewis Adrenaline Run” has worn off, they will be who they really are: not terrible, but they won’t be as dominant as they have been the last few weeks.

3. 49ers have an incredibly balanced attack on offense. We know Kaepernick can run with it. He can also pass; great chemistry has been developed with Michael Crabtree, and after a slow transition Vernon Davis is clearly on his radar. Frank Gore is one of the toughest runners in the league. Jim Harbaugh has done a great job of using everything and everyone effectively. Baltimore won’t be able to stop them.

2. Law of Averages. Joe Flacco has been so good lately, probably the best stretch of his career. He’s gone 24 quarters without throwing an interception with twelve touchdowns during that time. That can’t continue. He’s not good enough to do it four games in a row against playoff teams. He will struggle against a great 49ers defense with six Pro Bowlers that doesn’t have to blitz.

1. Kaepernicus. Colin Kaepernick is the best player on the field. Put together a machine with everything you want in a quarterback, he’d look like Colin Kaepernick: big, strong arm, accurate, smart, good movement in the pocket, huge speed, unfazed, unafraid, and confident. He beat the Packers with his legs, running for 181 yards and two touchdowns; he beat the Falcons with his arm, completing 76% of his passes, over 11 yards per attempt, for a passer rating of 127.7. He doesn’t make mistakes much but when he does, he shows an uncanny ability to bounce back. Kaep presents too many problems for a defense; he hides the pigskin well (defenders usually have to guess quickly whether he or Frank Gore holds the football, and they usually guess wrong or simply find out too late), and he can gun it anywhere on the field. I know he’s young; I don’t care. There’s no way that the Ravens will be able to stop him.

Miller’s Fearless Forecast: 49ers 30, Ravens 24

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five dumbest statements of the week

Two weeks is too long before the Super Bowl. All it provides is too much opportunity for players to make a fool of themselves in front of a microphone. For reporters, it’s like Christmas as players take the bait over and over and feed us with boneheaded statements. Here are some of the bytes we got in Media Week leading up to the Super Bowl.

1. Randy Moss, when asked about his place in football history:

“I really think I’m the greatest receiver to ever play this game.”

Yeah, he said that. We are pleased with his confidence but let’s be real: Randy Moss is far from the best. Compare the career of Jerry Rice and it’s obvious that Moss isn’t in his league. Rice finished with 1,549 receptions, 22,895 yards and 197 touchdowns. All distant records. Lest you think that those records were just a matter of longevity, note that Rice had 14 seasons with over 1,000 yards receiving, including 10 straight seasons of 1,000+ yards and 9+ touchdowns, 12 All-Pro selections, and three Super Bowl championships. Randy Moss, meanwhile, has 982 career receptions, 15,292 yards and 156 touchdowns. To catch Jerry, Randy would have to duplicate his amazing 2007 Patriots season stats five more times. Moss had 10 seasons of 1,000 yards receiving and never more than four straight with 9+ touchdowns. He is a 5-time All-Pro is still looking for his first Super Bowl ring.

Even besides the numbers, remember that in the middle of his career Randy Moss was traded for a 4th round draft pick, packaged with a 7th rounder for a 3rd round draft pick, cut midseason after that trade, and at age 34, retired because nobody wanted him. During the half season he spent in Tennessee, the Titans had practically no other significant receiver and they still hardly used Moss (just 6 catches in 8 games). He quit on one team and four teams quit on him.

Now as he gets his second shot in a Super Bowl he is hardly even relevant in the 49ers offense, failing to tally even four catches or 50 yards in the last 12 games. Just shut up and be glad you’re along for the ride, Randy.

2. Chris Culliver, on whether gay players would be welcome on the team:

“No, we don’t got no gay people on the team. They gotta get up out of here if they do. Can’t be with that sweet stuff. Nah, can’t be in the locker room man. Nah.”

I wonder what you expect me to say. How about this from the 49ers organization:

“The San Francisco 49ers reject the comments that were made yesterday and have addressed the matter with Chris. There is no place for discrimination within our organization at any level. We have and always will proudly support the LGBT community.”

From his head coach: “I reject what he said. That’s not something that reflects the way the organization feels [or] the way the rest of the players feel.”

Ravens’ Dennis Pitta: “We have a great locker room, we have a tight-knit group, we’re all friends, and that doesn’t matter about race, religion, [sexual orientation,] any of that.”

Ravens’ Brendon Ayanbadejo: “That’s something that we really try to preach, love and acceptance of everybody.”

This may have been one of the dumbest things any athlete has said this year. It will probably cost Culliver his job. Sexual orientation has no impact on on-field performance or how good a teammate is. Hopefully all the reaction has triggered more attention towards love, tolerance, and acceptance.

3. Ed Reed, on the league office and Commissioner Roger Goodell’s handling of fines for head hits:

“There’s so much that needs to be done, but they’d rather police certain things… You’re just somebody upstairs wearing a suit, fining people and stuff like that for the wrong things.”

This comes a day after Reed admits he deals with problems caused by head injuries from football hits and is worried about serious problems down the road.”I [fear] for my family, for my family to have to go through that if it happens.” Head injuries and safety are the number one concern in the NFL right now, and the league is dealing with lawsuits as well as ideas on making the game safer. Ed Reed is a multi-time offender, one of the highest penalized player for blows to the head. If he is having a hard time with confusion and memory problems, and is concerned about his family down the road, he should think about all the defenseless receivers that he’s been penalized for knocking out with an illegal hit.

4. More Ed Reed, when asked if he could see himself playing for the Patriots next season:

“Yeah, oh yeah, man, I could definitely play for Coach Belichick. He is a great coach. I’m sure he can help me to expand my football knowledge even more as a player and as a coach.”

Dude, you are in the Super Bowl as a member of the Baltimore Ravens and the Patriots are one of your team’s biggest rivals! Say this next week after the Super Bowl. Say this when free agency period opens. Say it after you become a soldier in Belichick’s army. Right now focus on the Super Bowl, stopping Colin Kaepernick, and winning for the Baltimore Ravens.

5. Joe Flacco, about next year’s Super Bowl at Metlife Stadium (an outdoor arena in the cold Northeast):

“I think it’s retarded… I think it’s stupid. If you want a Super Bowl, put a retractable dome on your stadium. Then you can get one. Other than that I don’t really like the idea.”

Don’t worry Joe. You won’t be invited next year.

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