Monday, February 11, 2013

why the San Francisco 49ers DID NOT win

(Feb 4, 2013)


It was an amazing Super Bowl. I spoke up vocally in favor of the 49ers but my pick did not pan out. My apologies to anyone who lost money because of me (yeah right). In a game decided by only 3 points, there were eight big reasons that made the difference between 49ers winning and losing.

8. Dug too big of a hole. Niners have done (and did) a great job of cutting deficits and making big comebacks this year. Unlike the 1980 USA hockey team, eventually that will catch up to them. San Francisco fell in a 28-6 hole early in the second half that was just too deep to get out of.

7. Game mismanagement. 49ers had second and goal from the 5 at the two minute warning. From that point on Colin Kaepernick attempted three forced passes to Crabtree that all fell incomplete. Why not keep the ball on the ground? Frank Gore’s previous three carries 62 yards (20 yards per carry). Kaepernick averaged 9 yards a carry for the game. The 49ers were very effective running the ball all day. The previous drive on the two-point attempt (for the tie) it was a similar situation; Baltimore had everybody on the line and sent the kitchen sink at Kaepernick. He hastily threw the ball away. Why not try running through the line, or finding a hole? Kaepernick has a great arm but at this point he just doesn’t have the experience. Use his legs or Gore’s legs in those situations.

6. Mistakes. 49ers made four huge mistakes that put them in the big hole.

a. On the first Ravens drive, on third down and 9, Flacco threw an incomplete pass. But the 49ers (two players) were called for offside, and on the next play Flacco threw to Boldin for a touchdown. (Difference of 4 points, final score difference 3 points?)

b. The fumble by LaMichael James was just a disaster from the start. On first and ten from the Baltimore 24, James got hit by six different Ravens before he even reached the line of scrimmage, and it was the sixth guy that knocked the ball out. Should have just sucked it up and taken the loss of yards instead of fighting an unwinnable fight. That cost them at least 3 points.

c. The first play of the 49ers next possession Colin Kaepernick threw his worst pass of the day. He had plenty of protection but he sailed a weak throw ten yards pass the intended receiver right into the hands of Ed Reed, the all-time best playoff ball hawk. A quarterback should know where that guy is at all times.

d. To begin the second half the 49ers gave up a 108 yard kickoff return. That is a major blunder that left the game at 28-6.

Four huge, costly mistakes for the 49ers. Ravens just had two (the Ray Rice fumble and the ‘running into the kicker penalty’). That’s the difference in the game.

5. Bad call by the ref at the end. On fourth and goal from the 5, Jimmy Smith grabbed Michael Crabtree and held on for 3-4 seconds. The ball was in the air. Crabtree would have had a play at the ball. It should have been first and goal from the 1 (or at least, first and goal from inside the 3). There was no flag thrown. In any other moment in any other game that is a flag. The refs have thrown flags for pass interference all season long in record fashion, yet in the biggest moment when it is so deliberate, they let it go. Holding or PI, they have to call that. It was a bad no-call and it changed the outcome of the game.

4. Dropped pass. Before that missed fourth and goal at the end, 49ers had a chance to score. On first and 10 from the San Fran 36, Kaepernick ran a play action deep pass to Vernon Davis. It was a perfect throw, but Davis just dropped it off his finger tips. If he catches it there’s a good chance he goes all the way for a go-ahead touchdown. As you read later, it’s the receivers that make the difference.

3. Chris Culliver. As if his homophobic comments earlier in the week weren’t bad enough, he was terrible in the game, absolutely terrible. Joe Flacco knew it, and went to him whenever a big play was needed. He was burned three times on third-and-long that cost the game. In the first quarter on third and 7, a broken play hail mary heave finds his receiver for a huge gain right in front of him. Yes, that’s him, #29.

In the second quarter on third down and 10, he got burned, jumped over the receiver (touch him and he’s down), and then failed to make a tackle (yes, three on one play), allowing a 56 yard touchdown.

In the fourth quarter trailing by 2, he made a terrible pass interference penalty that otherwise would have set up a fourth down punt. Instead, the Ravens moved along and kicked the game-winning field goal.

Make just one of those plays, it’s a different outcome.

2. Too conservative. Especially in the first half, the 49ers were way too conservative in their offensive approach.

a. Twice in the first half on third-and-long, the 49ers handed off to Frank Gore, preceding punts. (Both punts were followed by Baltimore touchdown drives.)

b. Twice early in the second half, trailing 28-6, on first down and 10 on their own side of the field, 49ers ran little draw play handoffs up the middle for 3 yard gains. There was no urgency.

c. After the power delay, on third down and 13, Kaepernick dumped it off to a running back who gained 6 yards, and then they punted from around midfield down by 22 points. They had half hour to plan what to run and that was all they could do? If you are going to try for short yardage on third down, go for it on fourth! You are down by three touchdowns in the Super Bowl!

Compare those moments to what John Harbaugh and the Ravens did, trying a fake field goal, returning a kick from the back of the endzone, etc. Baltimore was much more aggressive, and the football gods smile on those who play aggressively.

1. Ravens receivers. Flacco was named MVP, but it was his receivers that made all the amazing plays. Jacoby Jones, Anquan Boldin, and Ed Dickson were outstanding all game long, making big catch after big catch, pulling the ball out of the air. Just like David Tyree, Santonio Holmes, and Mario Manningham, that’s what it takes to win the Super Bowl, some amazing catches by the receivers.

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