2012 was a disaster for the Jays. Along with the injury to Jose Bautista the rotation was a total mess. The Blue Jays had twelve pitchers make at least two starts but unlike the Orioles, most were not effective. All due respect, but you aren’t going to have a great season when Henderson Alvarez, Carlos Villanueva, Aaron Laffey, Kyle Drabek, Drew Hutchison and Brett Cecil make 96 (60%) of your starts. So what did they do? This offseason the Jays made a splash in the trade market and stacked their starting rotation instantly into one of the best groups in the American League.
Starting Rotation
Ace: R.A. Dickey (B+)
2. Brandon Morrow (A-)
3. Mark Buehrle (B+)
4. Josh Johnson (A-)
5. Ricky Romero (B+)
In the mix: J.A. Happ, Chad Jenkins, Kyle Drabek
Down the road: Dustin McGowan
Other than inserting Justin Verlander and David Price, this is as solid and diverse a rotation as you can have. You have lefties and righties. You have hard throwers mixed with soft throwers. You have the reigning NL Cy Young and another pitcher with two no-hitters (one a perfect game). You have four former All-Stars. You have two older veterans that are still very effective and three players right in their prime (age 28-29). You have four pitchers that have been slated as an ace at some point in their careers and the other (Morrow) is good enough to be. You even have someone with a World Series ring.
I like R.A. Dickey (I think it would be hard not to) and he was so stinkin’ good last year. He is obviously a legitimate ace. But at the age of 38 and moving from the NL East to AL East, you can’t expect him to duplicate 20-6 and a 2.73 ERA again. However, he has a lot less pressure this year since he actually has quality pitchers around him and a lineup that will produce much more run support than the New York Mets. He is older but he does not have a lot of mileage on his arm so he should be able to hold up. Another great year (or two) is in store for the tricky knuckleballer.
Brandon Morrow and Josh Johnson are very similar: young power pitchers with very good stuff who have been injured frequently. I’ve been projecting Johnson as a top-flight pitcher in the National League for years but he kept getting hurt. Last year he was finally healthy (or at least made over 30 starts) but ended up having about his worst season statistically and was not helped when the Marlins tanked their season. Morrow was headed for an outstanding year until an oblique injury ruined his summer. Still, his batting average against and ERA were among the league leaders so if he can hang in there (and Johnson can bounce back in his new start), Toronto could have two of the top breakout pitchers in the AL.
Mark Buehrle has thrown over 200 innings twelve years in a row. He’s a contact hitter who doesn’t throw very hard but is a true horse, going deep into games because he keeps his pitch count down. He’s his own best friend, winning four straight Gold Glove awards. Frankly, his stats through the years are nothing to write home about but the Blue Jays know exactly what they are getting: a veteran who will give them 200 innings, 14 or 15 wins, an ERA around 3.90, and a couple complete games along the way. Not bad for your #3 starter.
After an 8-1 start, Ricky Romero tumbled terribly losing 13 games in a row last summer (with just one no-decision in there). He ended up being one of the least effective pitchers in the American League, a surprise for the guy slated as the #1 starter in town coming off a sub-3.00 ERA in 2011. Turns out he wasn’t healthy, having issues with both knees and his pitching elbow. If those are resolved and he is more comfortable, the Jays have a sneaky strength at the back end of the rotation.
Not only do the Blue Jays have a solid rotation but they have several guys ready to step in if something happens. J.A. Happ (now 30) has always been that #6 starter that can be effective if called upon (16-8 in 39 starts with a 3.15 ERA in cozy Citizens Bank and Minute Maid Ballparks in 2009-10). There is also young Chad Jenkins and Kyle Drabek down in AAA, and the once-promising Dustin McGowan should finally be healthy and ready to make an impact later this season. But most importantly, the guys 1-5 are quality arms that should prevent any extended losing streaks.
Overall Grade: B+
Pitching Depth: A
Biggest Strength: Top-to-bottom strength; breakout potential
Biggest Concern: New situations; three NL to AL East transfers
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