Friday, July 27, 2012

five quick baseball notes

1. Let’s say a team loses its catcher, right fielder, left fielder, #4 starting pitcher and All Star closer before the season even started. Their third baseman also spends half of April on the DL and the replacement closer gets demoted to Triple-A after a dreadful May. This same team is tied for the best record in all of baseball today. This is the Washington Nationals.

2. Alex Rodriguez got hit by a pitch, broke his hand, and will miss a couple months. There are people freaking out and saying the Yankees have to trade for a replacement , yada yada. Just for the record, I am not worried about the Yankees without A-Rod. He has been a glorified singles hitter much of the year and was taking up space in the middle of the batting order. I don’t wish for or celebrate any player getting hurt but as a Yankees fan I’ve got no problem where we are at. The Yankees can still win without a Hall of Famer at every position. One of his replacements, Jayson Nix, had a game winning hit against Oakland and Eric Chavez plays Gold-Glove caliber defense.

3. Speaking of A-Rod, he was not the only guy to get hit that game. Within a span of 5 batters, “King” Felix Hernandez hit Ichiro, Derek Jeter, and Rodriguez. Pitcher is the most important position in all of sports. The entire game depends on their abilities. If they can’t throw strikes the game practically stops. Every hitter almost literally puts his life at risk standing in the batter’s box. A-Rod got hit by a change-up (for you non-baseball-educated readers, that is a slow pitch) and it still broke his hand and he is out of action for 2 months. And yet there is almost no consequence for what a pitcher does. Felix will be back on the mound for his next rotation and there won’t be more than a mere mention of last game.

Hitting multiple batters with pitches displays an obvious lack of control. For someone firing missles towards another person, well, that is inexcusable. Whether he meant to or not shouldn’t matter. “I didn’t mean to do it” never helped me at school growing up. Hernandez’ blatant lack of control just caused the Steinbrenners to lose a player they are paying $30 million this season two months, or basically one third of the season. That’s pretty much a loss of ten million dollars.
If a pitcher hits a batter and it knocks said batter out of the game, the pitcher should be removed immediately. Additionally, if said batter lands on the disabled list because of the injury, the pitcher should be forced to miss a start. The pitcher should also pay a portion of any hospital bills. That’s the way the rest of the world works. Why should A-Rod and the Yankees organization pay for the carelessness of the Mariners’ player?

4. The Mets are like a bad, fiery, automobile crash; you can’t help but watch as they go up in flames. There were plenty of warning signs: Before the break they lost two series to the Cubs, and during the All Star break Dillon Gee had some health problems that causes him to miss the year, leaving them a man down. I wrote that they should have traded Johan Santana as soon as possible; they didn’t, and after three games in a row of allowing 6 runs he went on the DL. The clock struck midnight on Dickey’s carriage as his July ERA is around 6.50.Their bullpen has been terrible all year, and since their closer Frank Francisco went down a month ago they have been laughable. Despite a bullpen in shambles, GM Sandy Alderson made no attempt at making a move to patch it up. They have had two 6 game losing streaks this month that virtually buries their season and while pitcher Matt Harvey had a MLB debut like nothing we could have expected, there is still 10 more games on this West Coast trip.

5. The Law of Averages says that hot streaks will probably be neutralized by a big slump. Exhibit A = Josh Hamilton. At the end of May people were writing that he would hit 80 home runs and win the Triple Crown. Oh, how things have changed. He is still among the leaders in home runs and RBI, and the Rangers are still in first place, but he is not the same scary player he was early in the season. His monthly splits are pretty dramatic. Drop in batting average: from April to May = 55 points, May to June = 121 points, June to July = 69 points.

Tuesday, July 24, 2012

you say goodbye, I say hello


My wife is taking the bar exam this week in Albany so she is gone for a few days. We've got a 1 1/2 year old son so my mother came to help watch him while I'm at work during the day. When it's just her, they play together, read books, go on walks, eat, etc. When my mother and I are home, I am his best friend, she is public enemy number 1 and he won't even allow her to be in the same room as him. The mere sight of her sends him to tears. When my wife and I are both home, he wants nothing to do with me. So anyway, it's nice to be appreciated for a few days.

Look at what happens when a first-place Yankees team loses four in a row a week before the trade deadline. They acquire a ten-time All Star.

Last night the Yankees played in Seattle and for the first time in his American career, Ichiro was not in the Mariner's dugout. Somehow, Brian Cashman managed to swing a deal to cut the outfielder loose from the M's and add him to a Yankees roster already filled with future Hall of Famers.

I believe this was a very considerate move by the Mariners' office. Ichiro is one of the best and most popular players in team history and transformed the game when he came on the scene 12 years ago. But Seattle is in last place for the third time in four years, Ichiro is 38, in the final year of his contract, and requested a trade. His production is declining and some say his skills are diminished. The Mariners are clearly rebuilding, collecting a good group of young talent, and it is unlikely that they would bring him back next year.

So what did they do? The Mariners traded him to a team that they were playing that day in Seattle, giving the fans a nice opportunity to show their love and appreciation for the great player. The crowd gave him a 45 second standing ovation before his first at-bat. And how often does a Yankee batter get cheered when he gets a base hit in Seattle?? And a bigger cheer when he then steals second? It was also very kind to send their beloved player from the last place team to the best team in the American League, giving the superstar veteran an opportunity to play in a World Series in the back end of his career.

This was not just the Yankees flexing their muscles and intimidating a team from a smaller market, stealing a star, another strike from the "Evil Empire," as one of my friends referred to it. It's a low-burden move. Consider this: the Mariners actually sent the Yankees cash in the deal to help cover some of his remaining contract. The Yankees front office met with Ichiro and had a list of conditions: he would have to be willing to switch positions from right field to left, he would likely bat in the bottom of the order, he will likely sit out against lefties. And he would have to waive his no-trade clause. "He was asked to make a lot of sacrifices," Brian Cashman said. "And he agreed to all of them."

For the Yankees, this is a brilliant move. They are getting a guy with speed, something they haven't had since Brett Gardner went out in April. He has 16 stolen bases (including one from Monday's game), which is on pace for the second-lowest total in his career but is still five more than anyone else on the team. Especially towards the bottom of the lineup, that is a great asset. They are getting a 10-time-Gold-Glove-winning outfielder (winning as recently as 2010), replacing Raul Ibanez in right field, a player they brought in to be the DH anyway, so they are instantly improving their defense. Everyone knows the Yankees have plenty of hitting power. That's what Ibanez and Andruw Jones do. But the team doesn't have a guy who can slap an infield hit and steal his way into scoring position. So this gives them an extra dimension. (Remember Johnny Damon in the 2009 World Series, where he stole second and alertly advanced to third base in Game 4 to help win the game?) Ichiro is taking Dewaye Wise's roster spot, and even in this down year he's better than Wise in every way.

I love this move. It's practically risk-free. The Yankees gave away a couple mid-level prospects--not much--and are not burdening themselves with a long-term contract. They are getting one of the most popular baseball players in the world and a classy guy who never gets in trouble. And even if this move doesn't work out and Ichiro doesn't contribute, you re-employ the Ibanez/Andruw Jones platoon that got your team the best record in baseball to begin with. And he's gone at the end of the year anyway. If it does work out, it can be the missing piece to vault them to a World Series title.

To those who look at Ichiro's career low .261 batting average with an OPS near the lowest in the league and say he's got nothing left in the tank: he is .214 at Safeco Field in Seattle and hitting .296 on the road. He's going to a hitter's paradise in the Bronx with a short porch in right. He has good hitters all around him. And when you think that he has probably been bored and uninterested in Seattle lately, moving to the bright lights of Yankees Stadium with playoff tickets in hand will only help. Remember the last time he came to a new situation, he won rookie of the year and league MVP. He's not 27 anymore but he's not intimidated by pressure. This will resuscitate his season, maybe even resurrect his career. He probably won't hit .320 the rest of the way but he could hit .290 or better, and that will be a welcome improvement for everyone.

One other side impact: remember all the international buzz created when the Yankees got Hideki Matsui? The marketing and media coverage jumped exponentially around the world. And now the Yankees have two Japanese players, including pitcher Hiroki Kuroda. That again helps an already booming Yankees brand.

I've written before that Ichiro is the coolest man in the world; the true international man of mystery. He's one of baseball's greatest global icons. I am thrilled to see him on the Yankees, even if for just a few months. Hopefully for more. I'm already singing the song.

How the Yankees can be in talks with the Mariners for two weeks inquiring about a trade for Ichiro, and nobody hears about it until it's done--well, that's why they are the Yankees.

Saturday, July 21, 2012

problems and solutions


There are sure a lot of knuckleheads in the NFL.

It has been a busy summer for law enforcement officials and mug shot photographers for professional football players. This week they've been working overtime. There are some things the league can't do much about. Dez Bryant beating his mother, Elvis Dumervil getting charged with aggravated assault (road rage with a gun), and Kiante Tripp getting arrested for burglary; those things don't just happen. Those guys have some screws loose upstairs. And I believe the league will take some consequential punitive action.

But what is even more alarming and what I really want to talk about is the plethora of drunk driving incidents this offseason, especially recently.

It is amazing how many professional athletes, specifically football players, have been arrested for DWI or DUI. Just this week:

- new Knick and future Hall of Famer Jason Kidd arrested for DWI
- Seahawk Marshawn Lynch arrested for DUI
- Titan Kenny Britt arrested for DWI
- Rams Robert Quinn charged with drunk driving
- Lion Corey Williams arrested for DWI

Five incidents over the last 7-8 days. And you also have Eric Wright of the Bucs arrested for DUI earlier this month. And in June there was Giants David Diehl, Aaron Berry of the Lions, and Viking Jerome Felton were arrested for DUI (or DWI) and Jaguar rookie Justin Blackmon was arrested for aggravated DUI. That's five more incidents since the beginning of June.

It is no secret that drinking and driving is illegal. Not only that, the combination is dangerous. That message is crammed down our throats pretty much our whole lives from school, TV commercials, the news, etc. Receiver Donte Stallworth was charged with manslaughter and suspended for the 2009 season after hitting and killing a pedestrian after drinking. Although a pretty lenient punishment, that should have set a good example. But give a guy a million dollars (or ten million) and this imaginary aura of invincibility appears. This is a serious problem. No football player has been killed from an incident like this but it is bound to happen soon. There is no reason that a player making a million dollars can't afford a cab. But yet these ridiculous events repeat all too regularly.

The one thing NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell cannot stand is bad publicity and his league making headlines for crimes like this. Suspensions and fines don't seem to make an impression. But unlike assault and burglary, there are some precautions that can be made.

My proposal: The league needs to contract a taxi/limo service. Pay an annual fee and deduct like $200 from every NFL player's annual pay to cover this. Then give all players a national dispatch number for the service that they can use to get a ride whenever they need. Since they have already paid for it, there is more incentive to make use of it. Make it an essential inclusion in all new contracts. Present clear and specific penalties for violation that could include suspension or even termination of the contract.

The current system, even with a stiff player conduct policy, is not working. But there is something that can be done. There needs to be specific guidelines and penalties assessed for drunk driving, along with a plan to avoid the issues from happening. There are way too many news headlines about pro football players getting arrested for drunk driving. I get it that guys like to go out, have fun and have some drinks with friends, but just like everyone in the real world, designated drivers need to be more than good suggestions.

Maybe this at least inspires some ambitious entrepreneur.

Friday, July 13, 2012

the Move the Mets should Make this Month


The first half was more than any Mets fan could hope for. They had a miracle run by the 37 year old wonder R.A. Dickey. Santana came back from surgery to pitch the franchise's first no hitter, and he's been very good. David Wright hung around .400 for a while, and is still hitting over .350. And then there were all the babies from the Mets' farm system that surprised everyone with their grit and production. Terry Collins has the team playing hard and staying competitive. The team was a regular resident of 2nd place in the NL East.

I know fans want to be optimistic and want to make moves to keep the team going. The NL isn't real strong this year, and this may be their chance to grab a Wild Card and appear in the playoffs for the second time since 2000. Fans want them to break open the bank and trade whatever they can for a reliever and righty bat off the bench.

I'm not afraid to say I was wrong about this team when I said they would win only 63 games. But let's be realistic: the ceiling for this team is about 86 games. They had a nice start last year, too, and that was with Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes on the team. Like we saw at the end of the first half against the terrible Cubs, the Mets aren't that good and have been over-performing. Dillon Gee is out for the year, leaving a hole in the rotation. Dickey likely won't go 9-1 the rest of the way. They have already dropped out of the Wild Card lead and now either trail or are tied with Atlanta, Cincinnati, San Francisco, and St Louis, all who are better. By the end of the month (the trade deadline), they will be 3-5 games back and unlikely to squeak it out. Is it really worth fighting and trading away some of their young talent for this year, even if they managed to clinch that second Wild Card?

The Mets do have a great young nucleus intact. Their young guys are all getting good experience that will really help in the long run. They have some great pitching prospects in the minors. Young flamethrower Bobby Parnell could be your closer. Ike Davis will be better next year. They have David Wright in a Met uniform for a while. Instead of being buyers, fighting for mediocrity, the Mets could be brushing up for 2013 and 2014 and beyond.

Proposition: trade Johan Santana.

Santana's stock won't get any higher. He's had a great first half, including a no-hitter. He's under contract for next year, so a team would be getting him for 1 1/2 seasons, which is much more appealing. He is the Mets' highest paid player, will be in high demand, and is probably their best bargaining chip. He is also 33 and coming off a significant injury. The Mets are still trying to shed salary and this would really contribute. They could likely get a good young bat and a couple great prospects for him.

Like with Beltran last year, trading Johan would signify to the fans that the ownership is conceding this season with hope for the future, which would upset fans. This move also brings back the memory of Tom Seaver, probably the greatest Met ever, who was traded after 10 All Star and 3 Cy Young seasons with the Mets (the move resulting in the Mets going to the division's cellar the next 3 seasons).

But there are some compelling reasons. This team is destined for mediocrity for the 6th straight season. The Phillies have dominated the division lately but they have run out of gas and will probably be down for a couple years. The current team in Queens has a great nucleus of young talent getting experience with more in the minors getting ready. This is an opportunity to solidify the Mets as a strength in the National League for the next ten years. And I'm not confident that Johan Santana will be as effective the rest of this year or next as he's been. And the way the league is looking, great veteran left-handed starting pitchers will attract some very good offers from some desperate teams.

Johan is a hero in New York. It would not be a popular move among the locals, but the best move in the long run for the New York Mets would be to trade Johan Santana and prepare for a strong 2013 and beyond. If not, they will be treading water again next year.

Thursday, July 12, 2012

First Half Awards

The All Star break is a wonderful thing. Whether or not you care about the Home Run Derby or have strong opinions on the organization of the All Star Game, it is really nice to get about a week off from the everyday grind of the baseball season. And it's the opportune time to look back.

Midseason Awards

AL MVP: Josh Hamilton, Rangers. His batting average significantly drops each month (.395, .344, .223, .174 so far in July), so he better get back on track if he expects to come away with the hardware. But he is on pace to hit .308, 50 HR, 141 RBI, 101 runs, 11 stolen bases and his team is in first place.

NL MVP: Andrew McCutchen, Pirates. Like I said in an earlier post, he leads his team in every offensive category (league-best .362 batting average) and plays a good center field. Andrew McCutchen is one of the most exciting players in the game and can do everything well. The Pirates are a surprise first place team, which definitely supports his case. He may be THE #1 GUY to build a franchise around.

AL Cy Young: Jered Weaver, Angels. League-leader in ERA (1.96), WHIP (0.90), and opponent's batting average (.188), holds a 10-1 record, and threw a no-hitter this season.

NL Cy Young: R.A. Dickey, Mets. We've all heard about him by now. He's been really good.

AL Manager: Joe Girardi, Yankees. I initially wrote Buck Showalter, but what Girardi has done with the Yankees this year has been great. I think this is about the worst Yankees' team in the last 15 years and they still have the best record in baseball. He has done an incredible job managing the bullpen and bench players.

NL Manager: Terry Collins, Mets. 46-40 is much higher than I expected them to be at this point. Ownership gave Collins almost nothing to work with, but they continue to play hard every game and scrap together wins. He is regularly putting out guys like Daniel Murphy, Kik Nieuwenhuis, Ruben Tejada, Mike Nickeas, Jordany Valdespin, Mike Baxter, Justin Turner, Omar Quintanilla, and Vinny Rottino, and getting results.

AL Rookie: Mike Trout, Angels. The day he got here the Angels were 6-15 (nearly the worst record in baseball). Since then: 42-24. He's hitting an AL-best .341 and stolen 26 bases, hitting for power, and making incredible catches in center field. The AL version of McCutchen.

NL Rookie: Wade Miley, Diamondbacks. Great pitching numbers across the board in a very hitter-friendly ballpark.

AL Comeback Player: Alex Rios, White Sox. Hitting close to .100 points higher than a year ago and really helping the Sox in first place.

NL Comeback Player: Stephen Strasburg, Nationals. Missed the last year and a half after Tommy John surgery and now back to dominating hitters with some of the best pitches in the game. Maybe he doesn't fit here since he only made 12 major league starts before getting hurt, but he was dominating at that point, too.

AL Most Surprising Team: Baltimore Orioles. 46-40 and in second place in the best division in baseball from a team that was expected to lose 100 games.

NL Most Surprising Team: Mets. Pirates are doing better but I expected them to do a lot better than the Mets. If you told me they'd get nothing from Jason Bay, almost nothing from Ike Davis or the catcher position, they would use 5 different starting shortstops before the All Star break, and they would have the worst bullpen in baseball, I would expect this team to be 36-50 at this point.

AL Most Disappointing Player: Carlos Santana, Indians. Projected as the best catcher in baseball, now he's in a time share.

NL Most Disappointing Player: Ike Davis, Mets. A lot of Mets on this page. Ike expected to be the most feared hitter in the lineup; now barely hitting .200.

AL: Most Disappointing Team: Detroit Tigers. Five wins in a row finally brings them over .500, but they are still third in a division they were supposed to run away with.

NL Most Disappointing Team: Philadelphia Phillies. Last year they won 102, this year on pace to win just 68. And the way things are looking, they may not get many more than that.

Monday, July 9, 2012

R.A. Diculous decision


Recently I wrote how it was absurd that retired manager Tony La Russa is managing the All Star team this year. Along with making in-game strategic decisions he is also responsible for selecting half the team and choosing the starting pitcher.

That last aspect is what I am talking about here. La Russa chose Matt Cain to be the starting pitcher in the game over R.A. Dickey.

Matt Cain is a fine pitcher and a couple weeks ago I (prematurely) also chose him as the starter. But let's be clear: right now there is absolutely no reasonable excuse for making that decision.

Let's compare the numbers.

- Dickey: 120 innings, 12-1, 2.40 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 123 strikeouts, .203 average against, .581 OPS against, 0 stolen bases allowed, 14 quality starts
- Cain: 120 innings, 9-3, 2.62 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 118 strikeouts, .209 average against, .612 OPS against, 15 stolen bases allowed, 12 quality starts

Those are pretty much all the important stats for grading a starting pitcher, and Dickey has better numbers in every category.

Please, someone, tell me why he is not being rewarded with the starting selection?

Dickey's is the best story of the baseball year: an old veteran who discovers late in his career how to be a knuckleball thrower and transforms his career. He is the only guy that throws the pitch in baseball. He may have the best knuckler (or group of knucklers) ever. Not only that, but he is carrying a team that was projected to be a last place, 100-loss team to a 46-40 start in second place in the division. The Giants are in no better shape with an identical record and sitting in second. At the age of 37 this is likely Dickey's last and only shot at starting in the Midsummer Classic. He's 12-1 with a 2.40 ERA; what more could he do? Especially coming in after Verlander, who wouldn't want to watch a crazy dancing knuckleball after a 100mph fastball?

Another issue: let's remember the ridiculous voting that went on and the fact that the Giants have three other players in the NL starting lineup. All three are less deserving than someone on the bench (Buster Posey < Carlos Ruiz, Melky Cabrera < Andrew McCutchen, Pablo Sandoval < David Wright). At least starting Dickey would give the Mets fans a little satisfaction after the obscene snub of MVP candidate David Wright. But this gives the Giants a fourth representative also less deserving. Cain had a perfect game this year. Dickey had the longest scoreless streak in 25 years, including back-to-back 1-hit-complete-games. How impressive is that? The only reason that I have heard for not giving Dickey the nod was the fact that he is a knuckleballer, and Buster Posey (who is starting catcher) has never caught a knuckleballer before. WHO CARES? And what does that mean for the rest of the game? There is only one other catcher on the active roster, Carlos Ruiz (and he hasn't caught a knuckleballer either). If you aren't going to pitch Dickey first because Posey is afraid of him, are you going to pitch him second, while Posey is still out there? Are you going to wait until Buster is out before bringing in the best starting pitcher in baseball? Does that make any logical sense?

In Tony La Russa's swan song, he is doing the National League and fans across the entire country a huge disservice. The game is meaningful, so keep it meaningful by giving the most deserving player the opportunity of a lifetime. Shame on you, Tony.

Thursday, July 5, 2012

Baseball Power Report - 4th of July edition

4th of July marks the midpoint of the season. 3 months in, 3 to go, and most teams have played their 81st game today. Here's my rankings with some little nuggets for each team.

1. Rangers. Despite Tuesday's -17 performance, the Rangers still have the league's best run differential mark. Josh Hamilton has cooled down significantly after his torrid start, hitting just .220 with 4 home runs since May, but he's still on pace for .318, 52 homers, 148 RBI. Rangers have 3 starting pitchers on the DL, so it's a good thing they built a big league in the division early on. An interesting stat: Ranger pitchers have given only 3 intentional walks in 81 games.

2. Yankees. 20-7 mark in June because of some outstanding pitching, especially by Kuroda, Nova, and Hughes (combined 11-2). Freddy Garcia has surprisingly played well, which is very important while Andy Pettitte and C.C. Sabathia are out. Robinson Cano is on fire, with 5 consecutive multi-hit games and an 8-game RBI streak. You know how friendly their new stadium is but then notice that the Yankees have the best road record in baseball.

3. Angels. My World Series pick has been outstanding after a dreadful April as they lead the Wild Card race. Rookie Mike Trout is making it look easy, hitting .343. The pitching staff leads the majors with 11 shutouts.

4. Nationals. Best record in the NL thanks to their pitching; at 275, they are the only team to allow fewer than 300 runs. Strasburg's inning limit leaves him about 11 more starts.

5. Reds. Joey Votto has replaced Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez (and Josh Hamilton, if you had him there) as the best player on the planet. The Reds pitching has been incredible, especially considering the small ballpark they play their home games in.

6. Pirates. Guess who has the best home record in the league: the Pirates.
Guess who scored the most runs in June: the Pirates. (That second fact is weird considering they scored the fewest in May.) Tuesday's no decision ended a streak of 8 straight winning games for A.J. Burnett, but the Pirates have still won 11 straight games that he pitched. Andrew McCutchen leads the first-place Pirates in singles, doubles, triples, home runs, runs, RBI, stolen bases, batting average, and slugging percentage, and plays gold-glove-calibur center field.

7. White Sox. Seems surprising to see them this high, but considering they have a solid 1-2 with Peavy and Chris Sale, and a productive middle of the lineup with Youkilis, Dunn, Konerko, Alex Rios, and Pierzynski, they have the most staying power in the division. Coach Robin Ventura has made quite the turnaround in his debut.

8. Giants. Fans went nuts stuffing the NL All Star team with Giants, but they could have had a couple more with Madison Bumgarner and Ryan Vogelsong. The Giants have the makings for a good postseason run.

9. Rays. David Price and Fernando Rodney have been the only consistent performers for the team, but they keep scraping by and winning. The team leaders in RBI are hitting .199 and .197, their leadoff hitter has an on-base percentage under .300, and the non-David Price starters have been mediocre at best. But Joe Maddon keeps working his magic, and the Rays are probably still in line to catch that second wild card spot.

10. Mets. Somehow they stay surprisingly consistent, keeping a winning record for each of April, May, and June, despite running out a lineup of guys you've never heard of. The bullpen is in shambles and if they don't find a new arm the season could crumble. R.A. Dickey has been the league's best pitcher and best story. Best team ERA in June.

11. Orioles. The O's just aren't going away, and it looks like it could stay that way as long as Jason Hammell and Wei-Yin Chen continue to pitch well. Like McCutchen, Adam Jones is leading his team in singles, doubles, triples, home runs, runs, RBI, stolen bases, batting average, and slugging percentage, and is "baseball's biggest superstar that nobody knows about" (assuming you have heard of McCutchen).

12. Braves. They are so stinkin' inconsistent. They've had stretches of 0-4, 10-1, 0-8, 8-1, 1-7 etc., all season long. That means they could get on a hot streak in September and October, or they could fall apart like last year. Mike Minor has been the worst pitcher in baseball yet he keeps getting the ball every five days.

13. Red Sox. Consider that they have lost Ellsbury, Crawford, Youkilis, Beckett, Buchholz, Bard, Matsuzaka, Lackey, Bailey (and now Middlebrooks) to injury for some or all of the first half, Adrian Gonzalez, Pedroia, and Lester are having their worst seasons, the spotlight of controversy has been there constantly, and the fact that the Red Sox are still over .500 is pretty miraculous.

14. Blue Jays. Jose Bautista had 15 home runs from June 2 to July 2 and now leads the majors with 27. As a team, they have hit the second most home runs. The starting pitching and bullpen have been poor.

15. Dodgers. You know a team got off to a hot start when they can go on a 1-11 stretch in June (including a stretch scoring only 2 runs in 54 innings) and a couple days later they are in first place. Dee Gordon has committed 17 errors, most in baseball.

16. Cardinals. The Cards look like a team that should be running away in the division (#2 in MLB in run differential) but they are floundering around .500, in 3rd place. At age 35 and finally healthy, Carlos Beltran is having his best season since 2008.

17. Tigers. Verlander's numbers (ERA, WHIP, strikeouts) are right in line with last year's MVP season, but to equal his win/loss record he would need to go 15-0 from here on out. Cabrera, Fielder, and Austin Jackson have been outstanding but the team isn't getting the help from the other 21 guys and, like the Cardinals, they are struggling in a division they were supposed to be running away with.

18. Phillies. Cliff Lee is finally in the win column but it appears to be definitely too little, too late for a team that is now 12 games out of first place.

19. Marlins. Convincing reason not to spend $7 million on a free agent closer: Heath Bell. 32 innings pitched, 37 hits, 18 walks, 24 runs allowed, and five horrificly blown saves. Jose Reyes is hitting only .268 for his new team.

20. Indians. They are over .500 and staying competitive, but let's be real: their starting pitching isn't very good, their bullpen isn't very good, they have no power in the lineup, and they will be one of the worst teams in the second half. But one thing that has been doing it for them, they are 12-4 in 1-run games.

21. Athletics. The most boring team in baseball but they also somehow stay around .500 after sweeping Boston thanks to Josh Reddick, Brandon Moss, Coco Crisp, and Bartolo Colon (all former Red Sox). Hitting only .228 with runners on base.

22. Diamondbacks. Won the division last year thanks to great starting pitching from Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson, who have both been awful this season. Wade Miley is a deserving All Star with a great name. The team had a great June to climb back in the race but a five game losing streak has dropped them way back again.

23. Brewers. Ryan Braun, presumably clean, is killing the ball again. The Brewers didn't have a good first half, but a strong Greinke, Marcum, and Gallardo could help them climb the standings this summer.

24. Royals. Surprisingly, Royals are 22-21 on the road. In 49 career games, young catcher Salvator Perez is batting .339. Moustakas and Butler have been great, but it all goes back to pitching and the Royals pitching stinks.

25. Mariners. Scoring more runs than last year but they are still last in both on base percentage and slugging. Ichiro is way down hitting .262, but that still leads the team. Newcomer pitcher Hector Noesi is 2-11.

26. Astros. 9-31 record on the road, 0-7 in extra innings.

27. Twins. AL worst in nearly every pitching statistic. Trevor Plouffe has 19 home runs, but he is hitting only .161 with men on base to yield only 35 RBI. Twins own the league's worst run differential, meaning they've scored 85 runs less than they've allowed.

28. Padres. They've used 13 starting pitchers, and that is not a recipe for success. Batting is no better, as the team is hitting .235.

29. Cubs. 7-3 in the last 10 games to creep towards respectability. But they are stilll likely candidates to start a fire sale.

30. Rockies. Coors Curse is back; the Rockies are the league's worst in practically every pitching category. It is possible for a 4-man rotation to work, but you need at least one quality starter, which they don't have. Of the 11 starting pitchers they've used, 10 have an ERA over 5. Team was 2-13 in interleague play. Slugger Carlos Gonzalez has some monster numbers, but his dramatically different home/road splits show why he isn't starting the All Star game. 8-20 record in day games.

Tuesday, July 3, 2012

number crunching: outrage and outcry


There is no science to the All Star Game participant selection. There is certainly no logic. Fans vote online and stuff the ballot box at the ballpark for their favorite players as the starters. Players vote for pitchers and back-up players. And the All Star team manager selects the rest of the team. Then than there’s five candidates for the last spot that fans again vote for.

Theoretically, the players having the best year should fill the roster. You hope that fans recognize that. And if not, at least the players or eventually the manager ought to get it right. Yet year after year, right about this time, controversy swirls. Who got snubbed, who shouldn’t be in, that’s the headline in the news for a week. Writers and media personalities scream at the injustice.

Of course, a week later, several selected players pull out for various reasons and all is made right as their replacements have been the target of rants and outrage for several days. But that reality is delayed long enough for writers like myself to grouse.

The first silliness to rear its head is the selection OF the manager. Tony La Russa, who isn’t even a manager anymore, is the manager for the NL team. That is rather absurd. It is not a surprise, but it’s absurd, and a silly practice that needs to change. If the World Series manager retires, have somebody else who is still in the game head the team. The game means nothing to him. And then you get stuff like this from other managers and this too. Ron Roenicke is probably just bitter that he’s not coaching the team, but stick the Brewers manager in there as a replacement and let him pick the team since the game has relevance to his team in the long run.

Onto the players.

The primary cause of “outrage” is at third base for the NL, where San Francisco fans went bonkers. Here’s Exhibit 1:

Player (A): 98 hits, .354 AVG, .447 OBP, .560 SLG, 9 HR, 26 doubles, 50 RBI, 53 runs, 8 SB
Player (B): 51 hits, .300 AVG, .362 OBP, .471 SLG, 6 HR, 11 doubles, 25 RBI, 26 runs, 0 SB

As you can see, these numbers aren’t even close. A is Mets David Wright, B is Giants Kung Fu Panda Pablo Sandoval, who surged ahead in the fan voting last week to grab the starting spot. I searched about every stat and I couldn’t find one where Sandoval was superior than Wright, who is a legitimate MVP candidate at this point. And what about David Freese, the MVP of both the NLCS and the World Series last year? Isn’t that worth anything? He has also had a great season so far and should be in instead of Sandoval.

Exhibit 2:
This year Player C is third in home runs but is batting a paltry .210 and leads the galaxy in strikeouts (126 in 79 games). He whiffs in 45 percent of his at bats. Last year this player had the worst hitting season in baseball history. That is hardly a resume for an All Star. Yet Adam Dunn got the call. Why Ron Washington picked three DH for his team I don’t understand. How the worst hitter in the league gets named an All Star I’ll never know. Chicks dig the long ball, maybe he does, too.

Exhibit 3:
Player D is a career minor leaguer. He got off to a hot start but petered off to mediocrity with a zillion strikeouts. The first baseman is on pace to hit 26 home runs and 56 RBI and will probably finish around .260. Whoop-dee-do. He also plays for the worst team in baseball, who already have a team representative (more deserving, too) for the game. This is Bryan LaHair for the Cubs. Good for him, but what a joke. Why not pick rising star Paul Goldschmidt, who has a higher batting average, slugging percentage, RBI, doubles, and stolen bases, and is one of the NL’s hottest hitters right now?

Exhibit 4: more player comparisons.

E: .356 avg, 11 HR, 19 doubles, 43 RBI, 38 runs, 1.000 OPS, 3 SB
F: .309 avg, 13 HR, 15 doubles, 45 RBI, 35 runs, .874 OPS, 7 SB
G: .303 avg, 10 HR, 15 double,s 42 RBI, 32 runs, .851 OPS, 1 SB

Especially for a catcher those numbers are impressive, even for the bottom guy. But look, there is clearly a hierarchy here. E is clearly having the best year. F is going to his 4th straight midsummer classic with good numbers and has a reputation as one of the best defensive catchers. G was rookie of the year in 2010 but hardly played due to injury last year.
G is Buster Posey, another victory for the fans in San Francisco, who beat out Carlos Ruiz (E) and Yadier Molina (F). I selected Buster as a backup, but Ruiz is clearly more deserving to start.

Exhibit 5:

H: .285 avg, 14 HR, 45 RBI, 36 runs, 32 strikeouts
I: .247 avg, 11 HR, 38 RBI, 34 runs, 50 strikeouts
J: .235 avg, 12 HR, 30 RBI, 36 runs, 82 strikeouts

This is a real head-scratcher. J is starting, I was chosen, and H is staying home. What?? H is A.J. Pierzynski, I is Matt Wieters, and J is Mike Napoli. Instead of Napoli and Weiters, use Pierzynksi and 3B Edwin Encarnacion, who really should be playing (.292, 22 HR, 55 RBI, 50 runs, 8 SB).

Exhibit 6: relief pitchers:

K: 24 innings, 42 strikeouts, 0.00 ERA, .092 avg against, 10 saves, 0 blown saves
L: 35 innings, 37 strikeouts, 1.54 ERA, .106 avg against, 7 saves, 3 blown saves

Ernesto Frieri is K, Sam Cook is L. Guess who made the team. My first question is who is Sam Cook and who wants to see him pitch in an All Star game? At least Frieri is a strikeout machine (leads the league in strikeout rate). That’s what you need coming out of the bullpen in this big game. Cook is the sole A’s rep, but it would have been easy to pick outfielder Josh Reddick and Frieri rather than Adam Dunn and Cook.

Exhibit 7
: starting pitchers

M: 10-4, 2.85 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, .229 avg against
N: 8-3, 2.45 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, .197 avg against
O: 9-4, 2.26 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, .246 avg against
P: 9-2, 3.08 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, .251 avg against
Q: 8-2, 2.80 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, .249 avg against
R: 10-4, 3.62 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, .239 avg against

There is room for one player. Or use Padre Chase Headley instead of Huston Street and you can use two of these.
M: Bumgarner N: McDonald, O: Cueto, P: Greinke, Q: Lohse, R: Lynn.
This is where the Tony La Russa selection makes you wonder. M is Bumgarner from the Giants, already well represented. The rest all play in the NL Central, La Russa’s old division. James McDonald and Cueto have the best numbers and have really lifted their teams to the top of the division. Cardinal Lance Lynn (R) was selected, despite having lesser numbers across the board. 10 wins, but that’s because of run support, which he has no control over. Should have been McDonald and/or Cueto.