Thursday, July 5, 2012

Baseball Power Report - 4th of July edition

4th of July marks the midpoint of the season. 3 months in, 3 to go, and most teams have played their 81st game today. Here's my rankings with some little nuggets for each team.

1. Rangers. Despite Tuesday's -17 performance, the Rangers still have the league's best run differential mark. Josh Hamilton has cooled down significantly after his torrid start, hitting just .220 with 4 home runs since May, but he's still on pace for .318, 52 homers, 148 RBI. Rangers have 3 starting pitchers on the DL, so it's a good thing they built a big league in the division early on. An interesting stat: Ranger pitchers have given only 3 intentional walks in 81 games.

2. Yankees. 20-7 mark in June because of some outstanding pitching, especially by Kuroda, Nova, and Hughes (combined 11-2). Freddy Garcia has surprisingly played well, which is very important while Andy Pettitte and C.C. Sabathia are out. Robinson Cano is on fire, with 5 consecutive multi-hit games and an 8-game RBI streak. You know how friendly their new stadium is but then notice that the Yankees have the best road record in baseball.

3. Angels. My World Series pick has been outstanding after a dreadful April as they lead the Wild Card race. Rookie Mike Trout is making it look easy, hitting .343. The pitching staff leads the majors with 11 shutouts.

4. Nationals. Best record in the NL thanks to their pitching; at 275, they are the only team to allow fewer than 300 runs. Strasburg's inning limit leaves him about 11 more starts.

5. Reds. Joey Votto has replaced Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez (and Josh Hamilton, if you had him there) as the best player on the planet. The Reds pitching has been incredible, especially considering the small ballpark they play their home games in.

6. Pirates. Guess who has the best home record in the league: the Pirates.
Guess who scored the most runs in June: the Pirates. (That second fact is weird considering they scored the fewest in May.) Tuesday's no decision ended a streak of 8 straight winning games for A.J. Burnett, but the Pirates have still won 11 straight games that he pitched. Andrew McCutchen leads the first-place Pirates in singles, doubles, triples, home runs, runs, RBI, stolen bases, batting average, and slugging percentage, and plays gold-glove-calibur center field.

7. White Sox. Seems surprising to see them this high, but considering they have a solid 1-2 with Peavy and Chris Sale, and a productive middle of the lineup with Youkilis, Dunn, Konerko, Alex Rios, and Pierzynski, they have the most staying power in the division. Coach Robin Ventura has made quite the turnaround in his debut.

8. Giants. Fans went nuts stuffing the NL All Star team with Giants, but they could have had a couple more with Madison Bumgarner and Ryan Vogelsong. The Giants have the makings for a good postseason run.

9. Rays. David Price and Fernando Rodney have been the only consistent performers for the team, but they keep scraping by and winning. The team leaders in RBI are hitting .199 and .197, their leadoff hitter has an on-base percentage under .300, and the non-David Price starters have been mediocre at best. But Joe Maddon keeps working his magic, and the Rays are probably still in line to catch that second wild card spot.

10. Mets. Somehow they stay surprisingly consistent, keeping a winning record for each of April, May, and June, despite running out a lineup of guys you've never heard of. The bullpen is in shambles and if they don't find a new arm the season could crumble. R.A. Dickey has been the league's best pitcher and best story. Best team ERA in June.

11. Orioles. The O's just aren't going away, and it looks like it could stay that way as long as Jason Hammell and Wei-Yin Chen continue to pitch well. Like McCutchen, Adam Jones is leading his team in singles, doubles, triples, home runs, runs, RBI, stolen bases, batting average, and slugging percentage, and is "baseball's biggest superstar that nobody knows about" (assuming you have heard of McCutchen).

12. Braves. They are so stinkin' inconsistent. They've had stretches of 0-4, 10-1, 0-8, 8-1, 1-7 etc., all season long. That means they could get on a hot streak in September and October, or they could fall apart like last year. Mike Minor has been the worst pitcher in baseball yet he keeps getting the ball every five days.

13. Red Sox. Consider that they have lost Ellsbury, Crawford, Youkilis, Beckett, Buchholz, Bard, Matsuzaka, Lackey, Bailey (and now Middlebrooks) to injury for some or all of the first half, Adrian Gonzalez, Pedroia, and Lester are having their worst seasons, the spotlight of controversy has been there constantly, and the fact that the Red Sox are still over .500 is pretty miraculous.

14. Blue Jays. Jose Bautista had 15 home runs from June 2 to July 2 and now leads the majors with 27. As a team, they have hit the second most home runs. The starting pitching and bullpen have been poor.

15. Dodgers. You know a team got off to a hot start when they can go on a 1-11 stretch in June (including a stretch scoring only 2 runs in 54 innings) and a couple days later they are in first place. Dee Gordon has committed 17 errors, most in baseball.

16. Cardinals. The Cards look like a team that should be running away in the division (#2 in MLB in run differential) but they are floundering around .500, in 3rd place. At age 35 and finally healthy, Carlos Beltran is having his best season since 2008.

17. Tigers. Verlander's numbers (ERA, WHIP, strikeouts) are right in line with last year's MVP season, but to equal his win/loss record he would need to go 15-0 from here on out. Cabrera, Fielder, and Austin Jackson have been outstanding but the team isn't getting the help from the other 21 guys and, like the Cardinals, they are struggling in a division they were supposed to be running away with.

18. Phillies. Cliff Lee is finally in the win column but it appears to be definitely too little, too late for a team that is now 12 games out of first place.

19. Marlins. Convincing reason not to spend $7 million on a free agent closer: Heath Bell. 32 innings pitched, 37 hits, 18 walks, 24 runs allowed, and five horrificly blown saves. Jose Reyes is hitting only .268 for his new team.

20. Indians. They are over .500 and staying competitive, but let's be real: their starting pitching isn't very good, their bullpen isn't very good, they have no power in the lineup, and they will be one of the worst teams in the second half. But one thing that has been doing it for them, they are 12-4 in 1-run games.

21. Athletics. The most boring team in baseball but they also somehow stay around .500 after sweeping Boston thanks to Josh Reddick, Brandon Moss, Coco Crisp, and Bartolo Colon (all former Red Sox). Hitting only .228 with runners on base.

22. Diamondbacks. Won the division last year thanks to great starting pitching from Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson, who have both been awful this season. Wade Miley is a deserving All Star with a great name. The team had a great June to climb back in the race but a five game losing streak has dropped them way back again.

23. Brewers. Ryan Braun, presumably clean, is killing the ball again. The Brewers didn't have a good first half, but a strong Greinke, Marcum, and Gallardo could help them climb the standings this summer.

24. Royals. Surprisingly, Royals are 22-21 on the road. In 49 career games, young catcher Salvator Perez is batting .339. Moustakas and Butler have been great, but it all goes back to pitching and the Royals pitching stinks.

25. Mariners. Scoring more runs than last year but they are still last in both on base percentage and slugging. Ichiro is way down hitting .262, but that still leads the team. Newcomer pitcher Hector Noesi is 2-11.

26. Astros. 9-31 record on the road, 0-7 in extra innings.

27. Twins. AL worst in nearly every pitching statistic. Trevor Plouffe has 19 home runs, but he is hitting only .161 with men on base to yield only 35 RBI. Twins own the league's worst run differential, meaning they've scored 85 runs less than they've allowed.

28. Padres. They've used 13 starting pitchers, and that is not a recipe for success. Batting is no better, as the team is hitting .235.

29. Cubs. 7-3 in the last 10 games to creep towards respectability. But they are stilll likely candidates to start a fire sale.

30. Rockies. Coors Curse is back; the Rockies are the league's worst in practically every pitching category. It is possible for a 4-man rotation to work, but you need at least one quality starter, which they don't have. Of the 11 starting pitchers they've used, 10 have an ERA over 5. Team was 2-13 in interleague play. Slugger Carlos Gonzalez has some monster numbers, but his dramatically different home/road splits show why he isn't starting the All Star game. 8-20 record in day games.

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