look into my crystal ball - 2013 season projections

I can think of no better way to open up the baseball season than with one game on a Sunday night in March featuring the worst team in the whole league. Tough to take this “Opening Night” thing serious. But hey, the Yankees and Red Sox, Giants and Dodgers, and Phillies and Braves all kick off the true Opening Day on an April Monday for one of the most anticipated season kickoffs in memory.

On Friday I gave my season preview and projections for the AL East. Here are my predictions for the rest of the Major Leagues. Division standings are first and awards follow.

There is a lot of parity in the AL while the NL is pretty much the haves and the have-nots. With two terrible teams in both the NL East and West, the wild cards will come from both, while with the terrible Astros at least one wild card comes from from the AL West (possibly two).

American League

East

1. Blue Jays 89-73. Toronto New Jays bring winning back to Canada.

2. Orioles 88-74. Starting pitchers improve and the young nucleus of sluggers give opponents headaches as the Orioles get back to the postseason.

3. Yankees 84-78. Too many issues to overcome and the early hole they get into will be too deep to crawl out of.

4. Rays 83-79. Price will be dominant, one of Cobb, Hellickson or Moore will breakout, but not all three. Wil Myers won’t make much of a rookie impact as the Rays struggle to score runs.

5. Red Sox 80-82. Improvement is unavoidable but too much has to go right and another team will have to fall apart for the Red Sox to finish above the bottom.

Central

1. Tigers 97-65. In his second year in town Prince is settled in comfortably and V-Mart is back. Rotation is solid led by the horse of the AL. Even without a designated closer the bullpen is very strong. Look at what the Giants did last year without a “closer.” Tigers start the season much better and pull ahead instead of climb back.

2. Indians 81-81. It all comes down to pitching and if they play like last year Cleveland will be under .500. But if Francona can get Ubaldo and Masterson to pitch well the Indians could compete for a Wild Card. I like their lineup.

3. Royals 79-83. It’s an all-new rotation with James Shields, Jeremy Guthrie, Wade Davis, and Ervin Santana. That is still pretty mediocre with a mediocre lineup for support.

4. White Sox 77-85. I picked them to finish last in 2012 and they surprised by leading the way well into September before falling. Chris Sale and Jake Peavy are strong anchors for their rotation, but there’s not much upside on this team.

5. Twins 63-99. Mauer, WIllingham and Morneau could provide a little firepower but this is a 96 loss team last year that didn’t get any better. The whole rotation is a bunch of #5 starters.

West

1. Angels 93-69. Trout, Hamilton, Pujols and Trumbo with a clear ace in Weaver, along with a couple quality arms in C.J. Wilson and Tommy Hanson. Bullpen is a question mark, but barring injuries the Angels should have no trouble eclipsing 90 wins.

2. Athletics 91-71. They fooled me last year and won’t do it again. This young pitching staff will outperform expectations again and Yoenis Cespedes will lead a surprisingly competitive lineup. Playoffs again.

3. Rangers 85-77. This group is a disappointment candidate without Hamilton unless A.J. Pierzynski repeats his career year at age 36 and Berkman slugs for a whole season. I don’t trust any of the pitchers after Yu Darvish, and the bullpen is also highly questionable. This win number may even be a bit high.

4. Mariners 82-80. The pieces are coming into place (Morse, Morales, Montero, Seager, Smoak, Ibanez on the bench) and King Felix will be around for a while. Are the Mariners ready to make the jump above .500? Perhaps, but not much above that.

5. Astros 46-116. Ask me how I really feel about them. It will be a long inaugural season in the AL as the Astros are completely starting over and doing so in the toughest division in all of baseball. The payroll of their entire active roster ($19M) is less than about a dozen individual players’ salaries.

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National League

East

1. Nationals 99-63. Best rotation, lineup and bullpen in the National League. Strasburg makes the next great step in his career as he plays the whole year and collects the Cy Young award while teammate Bryce Harper wins MVP.

2. Braves 92-70. Craig Kimbrel is the most dominating pitcher in the game, but for the first time in decades there are serious questions about the starting rotation. If the Upton brothers breakout together along with Freddie Freeman and Jason Heyward, the offense will be explosive.

3. Phillies 86-76. Howard, Utley and Young looking for a big comeback campaign. A Halladay-like Halladay would get the Phils in the playoffs, but instead they will fall just short.

4. Marlins. 64-98. Giancarlo Stanton is on an island in Miami.

5. Mets. 65-97. David Wright is also on an island. Too many injuries already for a team that has such little talent to begin with.

Central

1. Reds 93-69. Outstanding offensively, and Votto is back healthy. Strong bullpen and top of the rotation. Reds run away with the division.

2. Brewers 86-76. This changes if Braun gets suspended or injured. Brewers have an All-Star ace (Gallardo) and three great young pitchers. The solid core of Braun, Ramirez and (eventually) Hart will benefit with a rebound by Rickie Weeks and solid surprise production from Aoki, Segura and Gomez. Braun has another MVP-caliber campaign but loses votes because of PED suspicion. Brewers in the playoff picture all season long.

3. Pirates 84-78. On July 28, 2012 Pittsburgh was 16 games over .500. The previous year they were 7 over on July 19. In 2013 they contain the summer swoon and finish with a winning record led by a rising star in Andrew McCutchen.Russell Martin will help the starting pitchers step up their performance.

4. Cardinals 80-82. Losing Chris Carpenter, along with their closer, shortstop and third baseman to injuries already, plus their #2 starter to free agency, plus losing fifteen scheduled games against the Astros all make me question how successful the Cardinals will be this season. Will Matt Holliday and Carlos Beltran each play 150 games again? I doubt it. I may be wrong but I’m just not excited about this team.

5. Cubs. 66-96. Starling Castro is your All-Star but the pitching is seriously lacking (both starters and relievers). Bottom half of lineup will put you to sleep.

West

1. Dodgers 91-71. The free-spending Dodgers are a bit of a wild card. There is so much talent on this team. The ceiling is very high if Crawford, Greinke, and Kemp are healthy, if Adrian Gonzalez and Josh Beckett step up, and HanRam comes back after his injury motivated. The rotation is very deep. However, there are tons of injury flags and risks as well as possibly combustible clubhouse chemistry with this Fantasy Baseball All-Star construction. The Dodgers could win 100 games or just 80.

2. Diamondbacks 87-75. There is not a single star on the team but still, surprisingly solid pitching with an offense that should score a ton of runs. Goldschmidt and Miguel Montero will emerge as All-Stars as the D-Backs sneak into the playoffs.

3. Giants 86-76. It is impossible to explain just how this team became champs last year other than that they snuck in and hung in there until the World Series started. Matt Cain and Buster Posey are crazy good and Giants still get a lot of wins, but they will just miss the playoffs unless Lincecum returns to form, and still, that may not be enough.

4. Rockies. 70-92. So much went wrong last year. Most of their sluggers and pitchers got hurt, the coach tried some creative managing that didn’t work, and it was back to the Old School Rockies Way (historically bad pitching). This year they get a little less unlucky but still struggle to win games in a competitive division.

5. Padres 64-98. One of the least-talented teams in baseball will play like it.

Postseason

A’s over Orioles – Tigers over A’s – Angels over Jays

Tigers over Angels

Braves over D-Backs – Nationals over Braves – Reds over Dodgers

Nationals over Reds

World Series

Nationals over Tigers

Awards

MVP: Jose Bautista – Bryce Harper

Cy Young: Justin Verlander – Stephen Strasburg

Rookie: Jackie Bradley – Wily Peralta

Manager: Buck Showalter – Kirk Gibson

Comeback: Mariano Rivera – Ryan Howard

Batting Champs: Miguel Cabrera – Joey Votto

Home Run Leaders: Jose Bautista – Ryan Howard

AL East Season Preview and Predictions

AL BEast Notebook – March 29



I’ve been covering each of the five East teams all winter and spring long and here is my “Official 2013 Preview.” Yes, it’s long so bookmark and come back often. I’ll have the rest of the league up in the next couple days.

The AL East will be the most interesting division in baseball with five teams that could each reasonably finish in first or last place. All should have win totals in the 80s. While the division has been known for it’s intimidating sluggers and top-to-bottom lineups, there has been a clear shift to pitching.

For each team you have:

1) my report with reasons to be excited and reasons to be concerned
2) specific bullet points of what must happen for them to succeed
3) specific bullet points of what must happen for them to end up in the basement
4) Season headline
5) My record prediction
6) How many more wins in best-case scenario (ceiling)
7) How many fewer wins in worst-case scenario (floor)
8) A player that is likely to outperform expectations
9) A player that is likely to disappoint

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Boston Red Sox

After being MLB’s most disappointing team two years in a row Boston is looking for a bounce back season. They definitely aren’t in typical “Rebuilding Mode” with the likes of Victorino, Napoli, Gomes, Dempster, Lackey and (eventually) Ortiz all in prominent positions. Now that expectations are so low after losing 93 games they hope that a new manager, revamped lineup and more secure bullpen will get them back into prominence. But it won’t be easy.

Two of the best pitchers this spring were Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz. After a dismal 2012 campaign, that is a welcome sight for Sox fans. Even Jon Lackey has been effective. In fact, the Red Sox staff led the league in Spring Training ERA. It may just be Grapefruit League but it’s much better to be good than bad!



There are issues with the lineup. Your Opening Day lineup will include Jose Iglesias, Jonny Gomes, Jackie Bradley, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia. The #5 hitter is a player with less than a full year of major league experience (Will Middlebrooks). If things go poorly—and with injured and injury-prone players like Ortiz, Ellsbury, Napoli and Gomes, and young players like Middlebrooks, Bradley and Iglesias, you can expect it—there is virtually no depth on this roster.

The weak bullpen from a year ago looks to be put together well. New closer Joel Hanrahan, former All-Star Andrew Bailey, and veteran setup man Koji Uehara are expected to shorten games to 6 innings.

For those that think the pitching staff will bounce back to greatness, consider this: Saltalamacchia is the signal caller. Jason Varitek is long gone. Once Salty took the majority of the time behind the plate the starting pitching (everyone) fell apart. Don’t underestimate the importance of a good catcher (or impact of a catcher the pitchers don’t trust).

Red Sox will WIN the division IF…

1) Jon Lester wins 20 and Clay Buchholz wins 18
2) Ortiz and Ellsbury combine for 55 home runs
3) Napoli and Middlebrooks stay healthy all year
4) Dempster or Lackey pitch effectively

Red Sox will finish LAST in the division IF…

1) Ortiz and Stephen Drew are ineffective
2) Two of Ellsbury, Pedroia, Napoli or Middlebrooks miss significant time
3) Any two of the starting five pitchers miss significant time

Miller’s Forecast

“Sox Crumble Third Year in a Row”
80-82; +8 ; -8
Surprising impact: Jacoby Ellsbury
Biggest Disappointment: Ryan Dempster

Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay had the best team ERA in all of baseball last year and won 90 games, but still finished third in the division, three games out of the final playoff spot. And in the offseason they lost James Shields, B.J. Upton and Carlos Pena and didn’t really replace them.

The biggest question for the Rays is where is the offense going to come from? Yes, Evan Longoria is ready after missing half the season and could finally emerge as an elite player, and Wil Myers will get called up sometime, but who else is there? Ben Zobrist and Luke Scott? That’s it! And while Myers is the best hitting prospect in baseball, he probably won’t break out like Mike Trout and Bryce Harper. He could be great, but the Rays tend to baby their young players. Myers will be a star in 2014, but for ‘13 Tampa has the weakest lineup in the division.

Of course, their pitching is very good. David Price won 20 games, the other starters were great and Fernando Rodney finished 2012 with a 0.60 ERA and 48 saves. Can young Matt Moore, Jeremy Hellickson and Alex Cobb keep the Rays’ team ERA microscopic again? Well sure, but it’s not a guarantee. And if you check the history of Rodney, his first year in Tampa was his first since 2006 of an ERA lower than 4.24 and WHIP under 1.47. Seems like a fluke.

Many people are picking the Rays to make the playoffs. The Rays have been the quietest team in the league this spring, and that’s surely a very positive thing. Great pitching in Tampa has been a given for like eight years now. Joe Maddon, perhaps the best game manager in baseball is running the show. But I cannot see how a team that continues to lose key players year after year without bringing in free agents will keep it up this year, especially in such a competitive division.

Rays will WIN the division IF…

1) David Price wins 20 games again and another pitcher wins 16
2) Evan Longoria plays 155+ games
3) Wil Myers is called up early and breaks out in a big way
4) Fernando Rodney continues where he left off in the WBC with another All-Star season
5) Two of Zobrist, Joyce, Scott or Jennings hit .295+ with 25+ homers

Rays will finish LAST in the division IF…

1) Something happens to Price and Longoria
2) Hellickson and Matt Moore regress
3) No hitter beyond Longoria provides power

Miller’s Forecast
“Where’s James Shields?” and “Not Enough Help for Longoria”
83-79; +7 ; -4
Surprising impact: Alex Cobb
Disappointment: Matt Moore

New York Yankees

Yankees won 95 last year, and this team looked like the worst 95-win team in the history of baseball. Due to injuries and questionable personnel decisions the lineup is very different, especially early in the season.

Everybody knows about the crowded star-studded disabled list (Teixeira, Granderson, A-Rod, Pineda, Hughes and Jeter) and they have a whole bunch of other players that could potentially fall apart (Hafner, Youkilis, Wells, Ichiro, Pettitte, Rivera) and some key positions that are serious offensive question marks: catcher (Stewvelli) and first base (Overbay). It is just not the situation you want to be in to start the season.

One concern with this team is that they are very lefty-heavy in the lineup. Cano, Granderson, Gardner, Ichiro, Hafner, and Overbay all bat from the left side. That’s great for Yankees Stadium, but they will struggle on the road against left-handed starting pitchers.

Robinson Cano is the one rock on this team. He will be an MVP candidate every year he stays in pinstripes. Reports are that Curtis Granderson should return on time and back to form in May. The power is gone, but there is still ability to score runs with Ichiro, Gardner, and Jeter/Nunez at the top of the lineup. The starting pitching is strong and deep. The bullpen, even without Rafael Soriano, should be very strong again as long as Mariano is effective.

Eduardo Nunez struggles defensively, but if he ever gets a full-time job he could hit .300 with 25 homers and 30 steals.

Yankees will WIN the division IF…

1) C.C. Sabathia makes 28+ starts
2) Derek Jeter plays 145 games and hits .290+
3) At least two of Hafner, Youkilis, or Wells make it through the season healthy and somewhat effective
4) At least two of Teixeira, Rodriguez or Pineda return and are somewhat effective
5) Mariano Rivera stays healthy and Rivera-like

Yankees will finish LAST in the division IF…

1) Sabathia and Cano miss significant time
2) Teixeira and A-Rod miss the season, or are ineffective upon return
3) Rivera shows the effects of his 43rd birthday, getting hurt or pitching poorly
4) Yankees get nothing from Wells and Youkilis

Miller’s Forecast
“Old Age and Injuries Catch With Bombers”
84-78; +5 ; -6
Surprising impact: Kevin Youkilis
Disappointment: Derek Jeter

Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore had a miracle season, winning 93 games taking the Yankees to a full series after knocking out the Texas Rangers in the playoffs. And all this after averaging 94 losses for the previous six seasons. What was most miraculous was how they won. They did not even have a positive run differential until September 28, the last week of the season. They dealt with tons of injuries. They only had one pitcher start more than 20 games or pitch 140 innings, and that was an unspectacular rookie. And of course, their 29-9 record in one run games, including a record 13 in a row, is something difficult to explain.

Looking ahead to now, there are actually very few question marks with this team. While they don’t have a true “ace,” they have one of the deepest reservoirs of starting pitchers in the league including a handful of pitchers that were outstanding in limited 2012 action. Due to 65 starts by terrible pitchers their overall ERA was mediocre, and that should improve this season with a little stability.

Baltimore’s bullpen was one of the AL’s best, led by closer Jim Johnson’s league leading 51 saves, and Darren O’Day, Troy Patton, Pedro Strop and Luis Ayala. Johnson is a regression candidate, but the ‘pen should still be very strong.

The lineup is also very stable with many players on the way up in their careers (Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, Chris Davis, Manny Machado, Nolan Reimold). Nate McLouth may have regained his All-Star form after the trade to Baltimore. Late call-up Machado looks like he could be a star player and is here for a full sophomore year. The biggest difference could be in the middle of the field as two-time All-Star Brian Roberts is finally healthy and looking good in spring. It looked like he would be hitting leadoff but just today Showalter announced that Roberts will start at the bottom of the order.

Buck Showalter has turned this young group into winners. They have a very good core of players in Jones, Wieters, Machado and Davis, and if the starting pitching doesn’t fall apart they should contend for the Wild Card again. If Wei-Yin Chen, Miguel Gonzalez, Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta develop and improve, they could win the East outright.

Orioles will WIN the division IF…

1) Team pitching gets their ERA down to 3.80
2) At least three pitchers win 13 games
3) The bullpen remains a strength
4) Brian Roberts plays 140+ games
5) Adam Jones and Matt Wieters make their third All-Star game

Orioles will finish LAST in the division IF…

1) The inexperienced pitching falls through
2) Two of oft-injured Roberts, McLouth, Reimold and McLouth can’t stay healthy and produce

Miller’s Forecast
“Critics Still Waiting for Showalter’s Club to Fade”
88-74; +4 ; -8
Surprising impact: Brian Roberts
Disappointment: Wei-Yin Chen

Toronto Blue Jays



Toronto sailed along at 45-44 until July 16 when Jose Bautista injured his wrist. Several pitchers broke down as well and the Jays floundered, going 28-45 the rest of the way. GM Alex Anthopoulos was very busy this offseason, acquiring R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Jose Reyes, Melky Cabrera, Emilio Bonifacio and re-hiring coach John Gibbons. Suddenly, Toronto looks like the most complete team in the division.

The biggest x-factors for the Jays this year are Johnson and Brandon Morrow. If they can stay healthy the Jays rotation should stay quite effective. You know what you are getting with Dickey, Buehrle and J.A. Happ, and the offense will score a lot of runs and hit a lot of home runs. Johnson and Morrow have top-of-the-rotation potential. If they stay healthy Toronto will win a lot of games.

One concern critics have is all the moving parts. Reyes played poorly in Miami, Johnson was less effective, Melky was suspended 50 games, and Dickey moves from pitcher friendly Citi Field and the NL East to the AL East. Bautista is coming off a wrist injury that has the potential to drain his power. All that being said, this is a team that hasn’t made the playoffs in twenty years. Changes had to be made! Opportunities presented themselves and the Jays jumped. And with three pitchers coming from the NL to AL East, remember that none of the Yankees, Rays, Red Sox or Orioles improved their lineups; in fact, they all (other than the Orioles) should have worse offenses.

I love the way this team is made: Knuckler, power righty, soft lefty, power righty, lefty. Reyes, Melky, Bautista and Encarnacion (42 homers in 2012) should be the most productive 1-4 this side of Los Angeles, and if Adam Lind and Brett Lawrie produce they are even deeper.

The one issue with the Jays is their bullpen, which was dead-last in the AL in 2012. They didn’t add anyone new. Closer Casey Janssen is coming off shoulder surgery and may not be ready for the start of the season, and Sergio Santos missed most of the regular season with shoulder surgery as well. The way the Jays are set up for “Win Now,” expect them to look at the free agents available (Brian Wilson, Jose Valverde, Francisco Rodriguez) should things start to fall apart.

Blue Jays will WIN the division IF…

1) Morrow and Johnson pitch 56+ games
2) Jose Bautista regains his power stroke and has an MVP-level season
3) Reyes and Cabrera each play 145+ games and hit over .290
4) Bullpen finishes no worse than 10th in the AL

Blue Jays will finish LAST in the division IF…

1) Any two of their top four starters miss significant time
2) Bautista re-injures his wrist
3) Bullpen repeats a dismal season
4) Major chemistry issues emerge

Miller’s Forecast
“Joey Bats is MVP” and “Anthopoulos’ Aggressiveness Pays Off”
89-73; +5 ; -5
Surprising impact: Brett Lawrie
Disappointment: Melky Cabrera

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Toronto 89-73
Baltimore 88-74
New York 84-78
Tampa Bay 83-79
Boston 80-82

Yankees make Lyle Overbay their man

AL BEast Notebook – March 28



The Yankees finished their Grapefruit League season today, losing 2-1 to the Pirates. After the game, Juan Rivera was released and according to ESPN New York’s Wallace Matthews, Lyle Overbay will be the starting first baseman for Opening Day and for the next six weeks.

Well, almost. Their first game is against lefty Jon Lester, so it is likely that Jayson Nix or another righty gets the start instead. Overbay will get the nod on Wednesday against Clay Buchholz.

Juan Rivera, signed January 28, played pretty well this spring, hitting .305 (18-59) with five doubles. But after the Yankees signed Ben Francisco on March 11, Brennan Boesch March 15, traded for Vernon Wells March 25 and acquired Lyle Overbay on March 26, there is no room for Rivera.

So I guess that means Lyle Overbay’s three day audition was successful.

Continuing what I wrote yesterday, Brian Cashman and Hal Steinbrenner’s offseason strategy of alternatives (Juan Rivera, Dan Johnson, Matt Diaz) and rookies (Ziolo Almonte, Melky Mesa, Slade Heathcott, Ronnie Mustelier) was a complete failure as they pulled the plug on each one with four crappy acquisitions within three weeks of their first game. I mean seriously, they had seven guys all along and quit on all seven in the last two weeks of Spring Training!

What have Overbay, Wells, Francisco and Boesch proven?

Yankees' front office in full-out Panic Mode

AL BEast Notebook – March 27



The Yankees made two moves this week, trading for Vernon Wells and signing Lyle Overbay to a “minor league contract.” Wells is expected to start the season in left field and Overbay is likely to be the Opening Day first baseman.

These moves practically scream “My name is Brian Cashman, I screwed up and it’s time to panic.”

Cashman and Hal Steinbrenner had a plan to be more “financially responsible” and prudent and look for low-cost alternatives. They brought in Juan Rivera, Dan Johnson, Matt Diaz, Brennan Boesch and Ben Francisco to be backup and injury replacements and obviously none of them can be depended on for even one month!

Sure, no one can really predict injuries. Who knew that Mark Teixeira would tear his wrist tendon sheath hitting off a tee, and Curtis Granderson would break his arm getting hit by a J.A. Happ pitch? But that’s why you get backups, so you can plug the holes in the ship and stay the course for a few weeks. Eric Chavez and Raul Ibanez are primarily bench players but they were able to step up in a big way when called upon. And Swisher could play first, too. Despite significant injuries the Yankees still won the division last year.

Now the Yankees are up to their seventh options (plus a slew of minor league prospects) to fill two positions for as little as five weeks. And the only thing stopping that candidate pool from growing more is the start of the season.

Here is what you need to know about Lyle Overbay, your projected Yankees Opening Day first baseman:

- Overbay Fact #1: He is 36 years old.

- Overbay Fact #2: His best season was 2006. Yeah, that was a long time ago.

- Overbay Fact #3: Since 2010 = 252 hits, 253 strikeouts

- Overbay Fact #4: In the last two years he was released by the Pirates, Diamondbacks and Red Sox.

So the Yankees are likely counting on a player for their Opening Day first baseman who couldn’t even make the Red Sox as a backup. And he wasn’t good enough for the Pirates and D-Backs to keep him, either.

As for Vernon Wells, the Yankees passed on cheap but dependable outfield options like Nate Scheirholtz, Scott Hairston, Torii Hunter, or Justin Upton, and let Nick Swisher and Raul Ibanez walk. Now they pull the plug on other alternatives to acquire super-contract bust Vernon Wells, who in the five years since he signed a 7 year, $126M contract, has zero seasons of 90 RBI or runs scored and has hit above .273 just once. The last two seasons in Anaheim he hit .223 in 743 at bats. He’s been very bad in four of the last six seasons.

And should the injury-riddled Yankees turn to a player who in recent years has had shoulder surgery, a broken wrist, and two hamstring strains for relief?

As a Yankees’ fan, I’m really trying to stay optimistic. But these moves stink panic and desperation, and unless a miracle happens Brian Cashman should start tidying up his resume.

Jays send Ricky Romero down to minors

AL BEast Notebook – March 27



Last year’s Blue Jay Opening Day starter and current projected number five pitcher Ricky Romero was sent down to the Class-A affiliate in Dunedin today. J.A. Happ will take his place in the rotation.

After a disastrous 2012 where he went 1-13 after June 22 and finished with an ERA of 5.77, Romero has continued to struggle this spring. In five Grapefruit League appearances, Romero pitched 13 innings, giving up 17 hits, 10 walks, and holding a 6.23 ERA.

Toronto coaches have been working with the 28-year-old on tweaking his mechanics, but after last night’s disappointing performance against the Pirates (4.1 IP, 6 hits, 3 walks, 3 runs), there just isn’t any more time to get him right before the season. Blue Jays’ GM Alex Anthopoulos says he will stay in the minors as long as it takes to get back to form.

Ricky Romero pitched very well for Toronto in 2011, maintaining a 2.92 ERA for 225 innings and 15 wins and setting himself up as a staff ace. So the potential is there.

J.A. Happ, 30, has a 35-35 career record with the Phillies, Astros and Blue Jays with a 4.19 ERA. In 2009, his first year as a starter, he had a 12-4 record with a 2.93 ERA in 166 innings.

your Last-Week-Before-Opening-Day team notes

AL BEast Notebook – March 26



Yankees and Red Sox start the season next Monday, Orioles and Rays play Tuesday, Blue Jays host the Indians on Tuesday. And the Rangers and Astros kick things off on Sunday. Things are coming down to the wire so decision time is NOW. Here’s what you need to know.

Yankees

- Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira, Curtis Granderson and (of course) Alex Rodriguez will start the season on the DL. Jeter could be back as soon as April 6, but may be out even three weeks longer. Teixeira and Granderson should be back in May, although Tex’s injury may be season-threatening.

- Yankees have acquired outfielder Vernon Wells from the Angels. There may be a couple players to be named later going to Anaheim, while the Yankees will only be stuck with about $13 million of Wells’ contract over the next two years. The commissioner has yet to finalize the deal and Wells still needs to pass a physical. Wells is slated to be the Yankees starting left fielder until Curtis Granderson returns. After that he will platoon with Hafner at DH, as well as be right handed relief for the three starting lefty outfielders.

Wells, 34, signed a huge contract extension prior to the 2007 season. Since then he has not recorded 90 RBI or 90 runs scored in any season and just once batted above .273. In 2010 he did have 31 homers and 44 doubles. He was traded by the Blue Jays to the Angels in 2011 and was terrible in two injury-plagued seasons.

- The WBC is reportedly responsible for Mark Teixeira’s salary while he is injured, so that frees up at least $7 million. That news showed up right around the time that the Wells’ talks got serious.

Red Sox

- David Ortiz and Stephen Drew will start the season on the DL. Jacoby Ellsbury sprained his ankle but says he’s fine.

- Lefty outfielder Jackie Bradley, Jr. improved his chances of making the Opening Day lineup when he hit a three-run homer off lefty Cliff Lee on Monday.

- With Lyle Overbay being released this morning and Ortiz starting on the DL, Jonny Gomes will likely start as the regular DH, making space for Bradley in left field, and Mike Carp will back up Mike Napoli at first base.

Orioles

- Wilson Betemit will start the season on the DL. Betemit has a grade 2 PCL tear and is out two months. Chris Tillman is likely to start the season on the DL.

- According to MLB.com’s Brittany Ghiroli, Baltimore would need a fifth starter just once in the first three weeks of the season. Therefore, with Hammel, Chen, and Miguel Gonzalez, they could take it easy with Chris Tillman and use Jake Arrieta in early April.

Blue Jays

- Brett Lawrie will start the season on the DL. He is eligible to come back around April 6 but there is no timetable for his return yet.

The injury means that Emilio Bonifacio is likely to start at second base and Maicer Izturis and Mark DeRosa will fill in at third.

Rays

- No candidates for the disabled list, although Luke Scott was scratched with right calf tightness yesterday.

The Rays continue to be the quietest team in the preseason.

surprised by Georgetown? do your homework!

(March 22)



Georgetown was a two seed in this year’s March Madness tournament and a trendy pick to go far, as most people followed the chalk up to the Elite Eight (and maybe even beyond). Tonight they burned many brackets as they fell to Florida Gulf Coast University (of all places), the biggest upset of a very busy couple days full of upsets.

My only question: what did you expect?

The Hoyas are always seeded generously in the tournament and lately they always disappoint. In fact, of the five times they have been in the tourney in the last six years, each time they lost to a double-digit seeded team.

2013: #2 seed – lost to #15 in first round

2012: #3 seed – lost to #11 in second round

2011: #6 seed – lost to #11 in first round

2010: #3 seed – lost to #14 in first round

2009: NIT – lost first round game

2008: #2 seed – lost to #10 in second round

Yes, that’s right. Four times in the last six years they have been a #2 or #3 and they have not even made it to the Sweet Sixteen once!

Including their NIT appearance, they are 2-6 since 2008, with first round exits via FGCU, VCU, and Ohio (not Ohio State).

I don’t watch much college basketball. In fact, I didn’t see Georgetown play at all this year (and perhaps not the two years before that, either). But I think it is safe to say that no one in the country has underachieved more than the Hoyas. When we see Georgetown we think BIG/SIZE, but they come up small under the bright lights of March Madness.

So if your bracket is busted because you picked Georgetown to go deep, well, I don’t feel sorry for you.

fun with numbers, Spring Training style

(March 20)



I may not be the first to say that stats in Spring Training don’t matter, but I may be the second. Still, it provides lots of fun.

1. Your team leader in home runs = Seattle Mariners with 45 in 24 games, 18% more than anyone else. Mariners also lead the majors in runs scored. By the way, the M’s have been dead last in the AL in runs four regular seasons in a row. Maybe they should move to Arizona.

2. Your team leader in ERA = Boston Red Sox at 3.78. Sox were 27th a season ago. Actually, the top three teams are all AL East teams: Red Sox, Orioles, and Rays, with the Yankees sixth. Because the AL BEast is all about pitching.

3. Who’s got the worst ERA? That would be your World Series champ projection, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, who at 6.94 are 17% higher than anyone else.

4. Who has the lowest team batting average and on base percentage? The Yankees, naturally.

5. Braves should start working on baserunning a little more. Would-be base-stealers have been thrown out in exactly half of their 26 attempts. You would think with the Upton brothers and Jason Heyward that should get a little better. Meanwhile, those Sluggin’ Seattle Mariners have attempted only nine steals. Homers are just a better alternative.

6. Your slick fielding New York Yankees have accumulated nearly half of their error total from last regular season (34/74 = 46%) in 15% the number of games. (No Tex, no Jeter, Cano in the WBC…)

7. Hottest hitter = That would be Dodgers right fielder Yaisel Puig. The Cuban 22-year old hitting .521 in 48 at bats with eight extra-base-hits likely won’t even make the major league roster.

8. Mike Trout update = The sophomore sensation has 14 base hits and scored 14 runs. Seems like he doesn’t stay on base very long…

9. Odd stat line of the Spring = That would be Brandon Hicks. The Mets shortstop has hit two singles, walked 11 times, and struck out 18 times.

10. Which teams top the standings? Of course, in the American League that would be the Royals, Orioles, Mariners and Indians, with the Angels and Blue Jays sitting in the basement.

It’s only a game right? And it’s more like a game of a Game at this time of year. Still, there’s hope for you Mariners and Royals fans.

news from Blue Jays camp

AL BEast Notebook – March 20



- Blue Jays were well-represented on the WBC champion Dominican team this month, with Jose Reyes hitting leadoff and Edwin Encarnacion batting cleanup for the team that went a perfect 8-0 in the tournament. They each hit doubles in the first inning to give the DR 2-0 lead in the final game, which would be all they needed. Reyes and Encarnacion were also honored by selection onto the All-World Baseball Classic Team.

- Closer Casey Janssen has been dealing with soreness in his right shoulder but made a step towards being ready for Opening Day with an outing in a Minor League game on Sunday. “We’re going to see how he feels tomorrow; it’s a day-by-day thing,” said pitching coach Pete Walker. “I’m adamant that he’s not going to go unless he’s 100 percent, not 95 percent, not 97 percent.” He will need to make a few Grapefruit League appearances, throw on back-to-back days and feel good afterward to really be ready to pitch when the games matter. There isn’t much time left in Spring Training but he has not been ruled out yet. In the meantime, Sergio Santos will regain his place as closer until Janssen is ready.

In other injury news, third baseman Brett Lawrie played catch today for the first time since straining his rib muscle on March 7. He reports no problems and hopes to be ready for Opening Day. I couldn’t help but notice that he got “hurt” playing in a pre-tournament game for Team Canada and is back in action the day after the WBC concluded. Just saying…

- As for the guys that have been playing official Spring Training games: Melky Cabrera (.356, 11 RBI in 15 games) is picking up where he left off last summer, Adam Lind (.400 in 16 games) is hitting well, and Jose Bautista (4 home runs) is showing he still has power in his wrist after all. Speedy Emilio Bonifacio has stolen seven bases without being caught.

- So there is Spring Training, and then there are the Minor League games. Today in the Grapefruit League, Jeremy Jeffress, Dave Bush and Guillermo Moscoso (who?) pitched for the Blue Jays while R.A. Dickey and Josh Johnson pitched for the AAA team. I don’t think those patterns will continue much longer.

news from Rays camp

AL BEast Notebook – March 20



- Rays closer Fernando Rodney saved the eighth and his seventh game for the Dominican Republic as the DR beat Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic Championship on Tuesday night. Rodney gave up just one hit in those seven scoreless performances.

- The starting rotation is starting to shape up. Pitching prospects Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi were sent down to the minors last week, leaving Jeff Niemann and Roberto Hernandez contending for the number five starter spot. In his last two games, Hernandez has given up three runs (two earned) in each, along with eight strikeouts, one walk and eleven hits in nine innings. Meanwhile, Niemann has allowed one run in each of his last two games, along with six strikeouts, three walks and eight hits in eight innings of work. Niemann is currently in the lead but both pitchers ought to have a couple more starts of audition before the season starts.

If Jeff Niemann wins out, the Rays would continue an amazing streak of sticking strictly to homegrown talent in their rotation. According to Chris Cwik, the last time the Tampa Bay Rays used a free agent starter was eleven years ago. Roberto Hernandez would end that streak.

Whoever it is, they will join David Price, Matt Moore, Jeremy Hellickson, and Alex Cobb in the rotation.

- Evan Longoria (.387 with five doubles in eleven games) and Luke Scott (.375, three homers and four doubles in nine games) are hitting well this spring for the Rays. Infielders Kelly Johnson (.147 with ten strikeouts in 34 at bats) and Sean Rodriguez (.195, eleven strikeouts in 41 at bats) are not.

- The Rays are fortunate to continue to have a healthy roster with no key players injured. The only player dealing with any semblance of hurt is outfielder Sam Fuld, who is unlikely to get a bench spot anyway.

news from Red Sox Camp

AL BEast Notebook – March 19



- It all starts with pitching, and the top of the Red Sox rotation is looking good this spring. Jon Lester threw six perfect innings against Tampa Bay on Sunday and has a 0.90 ERA in 20 innings in the preseason. Clay Buchholz has been just as sharp, allowing just one run in 13.1 Grapefruit League innings for a 0.68 ERA, including just one hit (a home run by Neil Walker) in five innings on Monday.

- Like the Yankees, there are a lot of injury concerns in the start the year in Boston. David Ortiz is not progressing. He did pick up a bat and do some batting practice in the cage on Tuesday but both heels have been bothering since his Achilles injury last summer.

Stephen Drew is still dealing with concussion symptoms and was sent to a concussion center in Pittsburgh on Tuesday for evaluation. Drew has not played since being struck in the helmet by a pitch on March 7.

A couple lefties are still hurting. Franklin Morales is in the Bulging Disk (disc/disk?) Club and Craig Breslow has been sidelined with weakness in his left shoulder.

The four of them (Ortiz, Drew, Morales and Breslow) are expected to start the season on the DL.

- The injuries open up opportunities for some young guns, including the hot-hitting Jackie Bradley, Jr. On Tuesday he got his 18th base hit in 41 at bats of the spring for a .439 clip. With Ortiz out, Jonny Gomes will likely start as the designated hitter, giving Bradley some space in left field. Napoli could DH, but backup first basemen Mike Carp and Mauro Gomez haven’t hit a lick and veteran Lyle Overbay hasn’t been much better. With Stephen Drew out, slick fielding Jose Iglesias should join Bradley in the starting lineup at shortstop hitting in the #9 spot.

notes from Yankees Camp

AL BEast Notebook – March 19



- Robinson Cano has been raking for the Dominican Republic in the WBC. While leading the DR into the championship game, Cano is batting .517 with four doubles and a couple homers. The final game, Dominican Republic vs. Puerto Rico, is Tuesday night.

- Phil Hughes is working his way back from a bulging disc in his back. In a simulated game in Tampa on Monday, Hughes got hit squarely in his back by a come-backer in the first inning. He’s okay but come on; insult to injury continues to mount for the Yankees.

If all goes well, Hughes should have three minor league starts in the next couple weeks and be ready to start for the Yankees April 7 in Detroit.

- Mark Teixeira’s wrist issue is worse than initially thought. He’s got a partially torn tendon sheath, not just a wrist strain, and could potentially require season-ending surgery. We’ll see how it works out but Tex has no idea when he will return and at this point it’s turning into a worst case scenario.

- Yankees acquired outfielders Ben Francisco and Brennan Boesch, and released Matt Diaz. The two latecomers have the best chance of playing significant roles early in the season, as the young guys (Zoilo Almonte and Slade Heathcott) were sent down to the minors and Melky Mesa and Ronnier Mustelier will be fighting for bench spots.

- According to ESPN New York’s Wallace Matthews, Derek Jeter is likely to leadoff against lefties and Brett Gardner will leadoff against righties. Speaking of Jeter, he was scratched from today’s game with, in the words of Joe Girardi, a “cranky ankle.” He is day-to-day, and it’s possible he starts the season as the DH. But as it stands it is a stiff ankle, this is still Spring and injuries tend to be excuses to rest.

news from Orioles camp

AL BEast Notebook – March 19



The pitchers contending for the two final starting rotation positions haven’t made the selection process easy for manager Buck Showalter.

Steve Johnson pitched four shutout innings on Sunday. Jake Arrieta had an impressive performance on Saturday, pitching 4.2 scoreless innings allowing 3 hits and 3 walks. Zach Britton pitched 3.2 scoreless innings on Friday, allowing 1 hit and a couple walks. Brian Matusz pitched four no-hit innings in his last game, striking out 7, and starts Tuesday’s game. Miguel Gonzalez did not pitch well in his last game on March 10, allowing four 4 runs (3 unearned) in a couple innings.

Jair Jurrjens has not done well in his four outings, allowing runs in each one while walking 6 and yielding 11 hits in about 9 innings. It seems likely he’s headed to the minors to figure out his mechanics.

Chris Tillman is dealing with “abdominal soreness” and hasn’t pitched in a game for a couple weeks. He is expected to be in the rotation, along with Jason Hammel and Wei-Yin Chen.

So two pitchers we expect to start the first week (Tillman and Gonzalez) haven’t done much of anything lately, and four of the others battling for the last spot have been lights out. At this point, it looks like Arrieta and Johnson have a leg up for the last two spots but it’s a very fluid situation.

Around the rest of the team, outfielder Nick Markakis has a small herniated disk in his neck and has been resting for a couple weeks. He says he can resume baseball activities later this week, and just has a little soreness in his neck. Barring a setback, he should start the season on time.

In other news, the Orioles have discovered a scheduling conflict with the Ravens. The football team is scheduled to open the season in Baltimore on Thursday September 5, but the Orioles are scheduled to play at Camden Yards that night. That’s more than the city can handle. You would think that the defending Super Bowl Champions’ season opener would get a little preferential treatment, but Bud Selig and the Orioles (who play 162 games a year) are not budging. Strange…

Derek Rose and the pathetic Derek-Rose-less Bulls

(March 14)



There were two pieces of news from Bulls camp today.

1): Derek Rose has been cleared to play. But he doesn’t feel confident dunking off his left foot so he is not comfortable about returning. Seriously.

2): Sacramento Kings blew out the Bulls by 42 on Wednesday. The Kings and their dead-last-ranked defense held Chicago to 79 points, including 38.6% shooting, 2-21 from three (they made their last shot in the final minute; were 1-20 before), and 17 turnovers. On the other side, the 23-43 Kings against the #3 ranked Bulls defense dropped 121 points, 54% shooting and just 5 turnovers. By the way, the Bulls had two days off, last playing Sunday.

That may be the ugliest and biggest upset of the NBA season.

The Bulls are free-falling in the East, going 7-12 since the end of January. After contending for the 2 seed (perhaps holding it for a short time?) they are now tied for the 7 spot with games @Golden State, against Denver, Portland and Indiana upcoming. Yikes.

And their superstar guard, who they desperately need back in a wide open Eastern Conference where they would have a legit shot for the Conference Finals, “doesn’t feel confident dunking off his left foot” so he is holding out.

Who cares? Aren’t you a former MVP? You are a point guard! Can’t you do anything else?

Deron Williams has had ankle pains (both) all season and hasn’t dunked in 11 months. But he has played nearly every game despite being less effective than he usually is, faced a lot of criticism, yet his Nets are right in the thick of it just two games behind the Knicks. Where would they be without D-Will? Probably not in the playoffs. That’s what a leader does.

I know the Heat are overwhelming favorites but you can't just throw away a year. What about Joachim Noah, Carlos Boozer Rip Hamilton and Luol Deng, you think they will be around forever? What if Noah gets hurt next year?

Derek Rose has had nearly a full year to get ready. It is a cryin’ shame that the only thing holding him back is his head and his pride. Suck it up and do your best; your team needs you, and they are paying you a helluva lot of money ($16.4M) to at least be mentally ready. Quit making excuses and figure out how to play.

Until then, the Bulls are likely to continue to get pounded and blow a good shot at a playoff run.

the Captain returns to his post

AL BEast Notebook – March 13



Derek Jeter made his Spring debut in the field Wednesday, leading off and playing his usual shortstop position after DHing a couple games.

He had just one fielding opportunity, picking up a ground ball and tossing to second for the out in the fourth inning. He went 0-2 with a walk. Jeter is 1-6 batting in his three preseason starts.

Jeter broke his ankle in the 12th inning of the Game 1 ALCS game against the Tigers last October 13. The 38 year-old had said he would be ready for Opening Day and planned for his Spring return March 10. After it looked like that would be delayed last week, he was cleared to play and actually debuted as the designated hitter a day earlier on March 9

Due to the many injuries on the team, it is likely that he will move to the 2 or 3 spot in the lineup (after Gardner and Ichiro and before Cano).

Also of note in the game, 40 year-old Andy Pettitte made his Spring debut, allowing one run and four hits in three innings of work. Mariano Rivera also pitched a perfect inning in his second game of action. The Yankees scored five runs off Phillies starter Cliff Lee and defeated the Phils 6-2.

well Joe, I hope you're happy!

Know what happens when you sign the wealthiest contract in football history, in a salary cap sport?

Let’s rewind a few months to New Year’s Eve. The Ravens had just lost their final regular season game to the Bengals. They had truly backed into the playoffs, losing four of their last five games. The offense (led by Flacco) was so bad that they fired their offensive coordinator.

And then Ray Lewis returns for his final playoff farewell. They match up against a weak Colts team, the Broncos’ secondary makes one of the worst gaffes in postseason history, Baltimore’s defense punishes Brady and the Pats, and Flacco shines in the Super Bowl thanks to some amazing catches by his receivers and a 108-yard kickoff return. Frankly, I think the Ravens’ win was flukey and a result of a lot of good luck.

Suddenly, Joe Flacco is a free agent at the perfect time and the quarterback that has never been selected to a Pro Bowl is offered a six-year, $120.6 million contract. Good for you Joe, get what you can get.

The only problem is, there isn’t enough to go around. I hope you’re ready.

The Ravens didn’t have the budget to keep Anquan Boldin and wanted to reduce his salary. What did Flacco say? Boldin should “stick to his guns, and that’s the way it should be.” Well, he stuck to his guns and immediately got traded for a sixth round draft pick. According to ESPN’s Colin Cowherd, Joe Flacco completed 62% of his passes to Boldin and just 48% to everyone else. If Flacco takes a little less there is likely enough to not even worry about Boldin. How will you do without him, Joe?

Unfortunately, that’s not the end of it. We know that linebacker Ray Lewis retired. The Ravens let go of Dannell Ellerbe and sack-leader Paul Kruger. They also just lost their leading tackler safety Bernard Pollard. Other players no longer on the team include veteran guard Bobbie Williams and retired center Matt Birk. And what about Ed Reed, the future Hall of Famer?

So Mr. Flacco, you got your money and I hope you are happy. Because of your new contract there is much less financial flexibility in Baltimore, your top target is now playing for the other Harbaugh and your defense got a lot weaker. Now we will all see whether you really belong among the most valuable quarterbacks in the league because there is no one for you to hide behind. You will soon realize that your teammates had a lot to do with your success.

In a team sport with a $123 million salary cap to cover 53 players, when one player counts for $30 million (24%) of that, he better be a superstar. And Joe is not a superstar.

a good week for the Brooklyn Nets

March 10



After a crummy stretch it has been a good week in Brooklyn. Not only have the Nets won three in a row (pretty convincingly, I might add; average margin of 17 points) and D-Will had a historic game, but the Pacer, Bulls and Celtics lost Sunday, Hawks have lost two in a row, and the Knicks are hurting (lost Amar’e for the remainder of the regular season while Melo is also dealing with an injury).

The defense has been good all year, but has really stepped up recently, holding opponents to an average of 86 points over the last seven games. And for the offense where turnovers have been one of the biggest issues, after averaging 21 turnovers in four games, the Nets have had just 9 and 11 in their last two contests (and 4 of those in the last game were committed by the backup center). The third quarter has been Brooklyn’s bugaboo, but they have dominated it in their three recent wins. Those three games last week were to the Bobcats, Wizards and at the Hawks, not exactly Murderer’s Row; but a road win over a playoff team and another win against a Wizards’ team that stuck it to the Nets a couple weeks ago are still good wins.

After a poor first half, Deron Williams has been a renewed player since sitting out a couple games around the All-Star break. He is scoring 23.1 points a game (6.4 more than before) and is shooting 47% from the floor (up from 41%). He had one of the best games of his career this week, shooting the lights out against the Wizards (nine of his eleven three pointers in the first half, including nailing his first eight) and looks much more comfortable around the court.

Kris Humphries signed a $24M/2 year deal in the offseason. He is now not only out of the starting lineup but out of the bench rotation as well. Even though he is totally healthy he has not even been on the court the last three games, which have all been blowouts. (Even Tyshawn Taylor and Tornike Shengelia are getting minutes.) That makes Hump, unquestionably, the most overpaid player in the NBA. And to think Brooklyn had a chance to trade him before the deadline and didn’t…

The other player struggling mightily this season is Gerald Wallace. Offensively there are few players that have been more… offensive. On the season Crash is making just 30.1% of his jump shots, 48.6% of his layups (layups!) and 63.9% of his free throws. And in the second half he is a dismal 37.8% from the field.

There are still issues at power forward. Humphries is not playing and Gerald Wallace doesn’t help much. Reggie Evans is among the best rebounders in the NBA but also a liability on offense (missed 11 free throws on Friday). P.J. Carlesimo is giving Mirza Teletovic an opportunity to play more (58 minutes the last three games) but scored just 11 points last week. If he doesn’t pick it up then we may be seeing more Humphries back on the court.

With 19 games left the Nets are in good shape. Their next four are very winnable: @Sixers, Hornets, Hawks, @Pistons, and if they are able to win those they will be 41-26. But that is followed by their toughest stretch of the season, seven straight on the road (eight counting the Pistons) including games against the Mavs, Clippers, Blazers, Nuggets and Jazz. The Nets are taking advantage of this soft spot late in the season and should use it to get them ready for the playoffs, with those challenging games out West as primers.

I want to see more continued control of the basketball and some improvement by either Mirza or Humphries. But I like what I’m seeing out of Deron Williams. Considering their .333 winning percentage a year ago, a #3 playoff seed would be quite an improvement and a good spring into next season.

early injuries to know about approaching Opening Day

AL BEast Notebook – March 8



It is no surprise that players sit out preseason games, pull out of the WBC or end up on the injury report with sore arms, sore legs, sore backs, etc. before such a long season. Sometimes it can be hard to keep track of who is resting and who is actually injured. Whether it is preparing for your fantasy league draft or just keeping tabs on your team, here are the situations in the AL East that you need to be aware of as Spring Training rolls along.

- Blue Jays. Third baseman Brett Lawrie is out a couple weeks with strained rib and intercostal muscles. That puts him up against Opening Day without much prep time.

- Yankees. Yes, there are a lot of names that you’ve heard about. Mark Teixeira and Curtis Granderson are both out until mid-May.

Derek Jeter has finally been medically cleared to resume baseball activities. He was initially hoping to play in a Spring game March 10 but that is being pushed back. He will probably not be playing shortstop the first week of the season, although he is likely to start at designated hitter.

Phil Hughes is recovering nicely from the bulging disk in his back, says he experiencing “no problems,” and “feels good,” and may be ready for his first turn in the rotation when the season starts.

The bullpen is dealing with a bunch of minor issues. David Robertson slept on his shoulder wrong and Boone Logan has a sore elbow. But the other lefty in the bullpen Clay Rapada has been shut down for a couple weeks due to shoulder bursitis, making him a likely candidate to start the season on the DL.

- Red Sox. David Ortiz still feels pain in his right Achilles, seven months after suffering the injury. Before and after running around the bases a few times he is feeling soreness in both lower legs. With just a few weeks before the start of the season it is a cause for concern, even for a guy that won’t play the field.

Franklin Morales (back), right now slated as the Sox #6 starter or long reliever, played “catch” Thursday, but is still a ways off. Middle reliever Craig Breslow has a bad shoulder and is still working to develop his arm strength. Both Morales and Breslow are likely to start the season on the DL.

- Orioles and Rays: no injury concerns heading into the season.

Teixeira hurts wrist, more bad news for the Yankees

AL BEast Notebook – March 6



Yankees are dropping faster than Brian Cashman out of an airplane.

Bad news continues to pile up for the Bombers. First baseman Mark Teixeira hurt his right wrist swinging in the batting cage on Tuesday and will miss at least two weeks.

Yes, he’s out of the World Baseball Classic, but the bigger news is that Tex won’t even be swinging a bat for practically the rest of Spring Training. Teixeira (approaching his mid-30’s and already in decline) is a perennial slow starter as it is, and now after missing much of last fall with a bad calf he adds a wrist injury into the mix, and takes away his preparation time for the season. He’s one of the two sluggers (with Cano) the Yankees are depending on heavily this year, and with all that has and is going on he is only getting more crucial.

Of course it’s always tough to replace Teixeira. But especially with Swisher and Chavez gone, the only real backup is Kevin Youkilis, who doesn’t even have a backup at third base. I suppose the Yankees could promote Dan Johnson (33 year old, has played just 96 games in the last five years) or Juan Rivera (34 year old career fourth outfielder) to play first, but those guys don’t even belong on the major league roster.

Speaking of replacements at third and first, the Yankees don’t even have one for Curtis Granderson in center field (it will likely be a minor leaguer—Melky Mesa or Zoilo Almonte). There is virtually no depth at all on this Yankees team.

Just to review: A-Rod is out who-knows-how-long, Michael Pineda is targeting June, Grandy is out until at least mid-May, Phil Hughes probably won’t be ready for the start of April, Jeter is hoping to be ready, Teixeira is missing a few weeks of Spring Training, Travis “DH” Hafner and Kevin Youkilis are injuries waiting to happen, and GM Brian Cashman broke his leg skydiving for charity. Other than that…

Hopefully Tex will be in uniform and have his glove (Gold Glove glove, that is) ready for Opening Day. For a team starving for power, a lingering wrist injury would cause trouble for Teixeira possibly all year and that is something the Yankees cannot afford.

(UPDATE: Mark Teixeira will be out not two weeks but two months, putting his return time around mid-May, like Curtis Granderson)

what's wrong with the Nets?

March 4



The Nets are in another one of their slumps, the third of the season (the other two both in December). Since winning four in a row around the All-Star Break they have lost four out of five and done so in spectacular fashion.

Four main issues have killed the Nets this year.

1) Turnovers. Nets throw the ball all over the court. D-Will is doing it a lot, but he’s the point guard who has the ball all the time anyway, so I can excuse it some (your NBA turnover leaders are Holiday, Rondo, Wall, Harden, Kobe, Westbrook, Durant and Irving; what does that say?). Especially lately he has been incredibly sloppy. With a chance to tie against the Grizzlies last week he threw the ball away with 10 seconds left. But as for the others, what excuse do Reggie Evans and Gerald Wallace have? It is maddening to watch the games because those two in particular are notorious at dumb turnovers. Nets had 18 turnovers against the Grizzlies, 20 against the Mavericks, and 21 against the Bulls. In fact, the Nets have had 20+ turnovers six times this season. There’s no excuse for that.

2) Cold streaks. Brooklyn has had about three games this year where they played well for 48 minutes. Most often they will do well for about 38 and then completely shut down for the better part of a quarter (usually the third). Against the Rockets, a two-point deficit grew to 17. Nets led the Grizzlies by five two minutes left and the Grizzlies scored the games’ last nine points. The Mavericks outscored them by 15 in the third quarter. Nets were leading Chicago in the second quarter until the Bulls went on a 19-0 run into the third where the Nets remained scoreless for seven minutes.

This season the Nets have been outscored by ten or more in 30 different quarters (13 of which were the third). Think about that; in a 12-minute period they’ve completely gone in the tank 30 times. The reasons, besides Turnover City, are…

- Terrible shot selection. When things start going wrong, D-Will, JJ, Bogans, Watson, Stackhouse and Teletovic start chucking up three-pointers every possession instead of moving the ball around to get good high percentage shots.

- No offensive movement. One of the biggest gripes with Avery Johnson’s coaching was the isolation-heavy offense that led to a last-second contested heave as the shot clock expired. That has been creeping back. Consider this: the Nets are tied for 28th in the number of shots per game. The other two at the bottom are the Thunder and Heat. But those two teams are in the top three in field goal percentage and three-point shot percentage. So in reality, the Nets take the fewest shots and don’t get good looks when they do.

- They don’t use free throws to get out of droughts. One of the things I admire most about Dirk Nowitzki is how, even when he is ice-cold shooting, he still demands the ball, gets into the paint, draws fouls and hits the freebies. The Nets don’t do that. Gerald Wallace is shooting 63% from the free throw line, 17 points lower than a season ago. Reggie Evans is making exactly half of his (45% in Nets losses).

3) Powerless forwards. Kris Humphries got a new $24M/2 year contract last offseason and he’s now third on the depth chart at power forward. Hump is averaging just 5.5 points a game this season, including seven total in his last six games (62 minutes). Reggie Evans is a rebound machine but is a complete nonfactor on offense. Over the last three games (61 minutes) Evans has not registered a single point, shooting 0-8 (yet he has had six turnovers). For some reason GM Billy King opted not to go after an offensive power forward before the trade deadline (Josh Smith, Carlos Boozer, Paul Millsap) and that decision (or indecision) will likely cost the Nets.

4) Coaching. When P.J. took over the Nets got on a nice winning streak. People asked him what he’s doing different and he always answered “Not much, we’re basically doing the same things.” Like earlier in the season, “the same things” isn’t good enough. Besides the litany of turnovers and poor shooting, Carlesimo has no clue what he’s doing with the lineup. His All-Star center Brook Lopez, the MVP of the Nets season, did not play at all in the fourth quarter three times recently. Defense, in general, has not been the problem, yet he sticks with Evans, Wallace and Bogans so much (instead of Lopez + Blatche, Mirza and Brooks) and the Nets then struggle to score. Like early in the season with Avery, the Nets are blowing great first halves by completely falling apart at halftime.

I’m sorry, I know everyone smirks when you blame the coach but there is no question that Avery Johnson and P.J. Carlesimo are not getting the most out of the talent on the team, or using them effectively.

There is still time to turn things around, and especially in the weak Eastern Conference the Nets still have a good chance to advance in the playoffs. Overall, they have a good makeup: one of the league’s best backcourts (despite their struggles this season) in Deron and Joe, the highest-scoring center in the league (Lopez), lots of bigs (Blatche, Evans, Humphries) and a good bench (Teletovic, Brooks, Watson and Bogans). They are virtually in a three-way tie for the four seed and just four games behind the Pacers for #2. But as a team they are wildly inconsistent, especially on offense, and P.J. Carlesimo has got to figure out how to turn things around and get them back on track. He gets four days to think about it and fortunately that starts with a trip to Charlotte on Wednesday.

concern Springs for Yankees and Red Sox?

AL BEast Notebook – March 1



There’s an old cliché that says “being there is half the battle.” In sports it’s more. There is no greater determinant of success than health, especially in baseball. And not just being healthy enough to, well, play, but healthy enough to play well. It’s ‘a game of inches’ where even slight adjustments can create problems hitting or pitching. Aches and pains add up during a 162-game schedule, so you hope, at least, in the beginning of Spring Training your guys are starting on a healthy slate with no injury concerns to tweak and aggravate.

People tend to be doubters of the Orioles and after all, their 29-9 record in one-run games will be impossible to duplicate. But a good sign for the Baltimore Orioles: no players in the lineup, rotation or bullpen are dealing with injuries right now. Brian Roberts has missed much of the last three seasons and Nolan Reimold was out for most of last year but both of those are already playing in Grapefruit League games. They also have zero players on the roster older than 35. The same cannot be said of other teams.

Like the team three hours north up I-95. For New York, three of the most important pieces of their season are entering their 19th season in the Bronx. Not many players in history have ever been effective after that many years. Then realize that Derek Jeter, the starting shortstop, is recovering from a broken ankle in October and only started running on the field a few days ago. Closer Mariano Rivera, born in the ‘60s, is recovering from a torn ACL. Rafael Soriano is gone so the Yankees are going all-in with Mo. Andy Pettitte (40) came back after a broken ankle, and in his previous stint in 2010 he missed two summer months with a groin injury. They all say they are fine, but that is three senior citizens with recent significant injuries

Unfortunately, that’s not all for the Yankees. Now they are faced with the absence of their center fielder Curtis Granderson until at least mid-May with a broken arm suffered a week ago. Phil Hughes has a bulging disk in his back and is unlikely to be ready for Opening Day. Ace C.C. Sabathia is “ready,” but coming off offseason elbow surgery. Kevin Youkilis says he would be playing through the oblique he’s experiencing now if it was the regular season but hey, he’s missed at least 40 games each of the last three seasons; this minor soreness could be a sign of things to come. And speaking of missing games, slugger Travis Hafner has made seven trips to the disabled list the last five seasons.

There’s still a lot of talent on the Yankees. The pitcher between C.C. and Pettitte in the rotation is Hiroki Kuroda and he’s good enough to be a staff leader. But is it worth mentioning he just turned 38? His Japanese teammate (Ichiro) has averaged 159 games a year for his entire career but he joins the Forty Club in October. And while I’m at it what the heck; the other outfielder Brett Gardner is off to a nice start this spring and is young and totally healthy, but I couldn’t help but notice that he missed 146 games in 2012.

And that’s excusing Alex Rodriguez and Michael Pineda who will both be missing at least half the season. But at least we expected that.

I’m not being pessimistic; just observing the facts. Joe Girardi thinks the Yankees can win 95 games (or he did before Granderson went down) like they did last year. Many of the guys I mentioned are not on the current injury report. But on March 1, just one month before Opening Day the risks and red flags are already being signaled for this team and there are a lot of them. And unlike last year there is significant lack of depth at every position.

And what about the team three hours up I-95 from there? The Boston Red Sox are trying to shake off their 93-loss season and already have had a significant amount of time examined by doctors. David “Big Papi” Ortiz is still dealing with a strained right Achilles that caused him to miss half of 2012 and has not even started running the bases. His rehab is progressing but the 37-year old may not be ready for the start of April. Third baseman Will Middlebrooks was taken out of Wednesday’s game after appearing to re-aggravate his surgically repaired right wrist that he broke last year. Newly acquired Mike Napoli has avascular necrosis in his hips (I’m no doctor, but that doesn’t sound good), which may not affect him too much this year but it was enough to turn a three year, $39 million deal into $5 million for one. As for the pitchers, oft-injured Clay Buchholz hopes his tweaked hamstring cooperates while John Lackey pitches for the first time since Tommy John surgery. Those five guys may be fine, but it’s a lot of smoke for the end of February.

The Yankees and Red Sox have less depth on their roster than they’ve had in over a decade. And with the young and healthy Orioles and Rays pressing and revamped Blue Jays expected to make a splash, spring injuries are the last thing you want to hear at camp. And if anything worse happens, this could be the first time since the strike of 1994 without a playoff game in Fenway or the Bronx.

starting positions up for grabs

AL BEast Notebook – Feb 27



Spring is the time to evaluate talent, give new people a chance to show what they can do and try new things. While most starting spots and lineups are established already, there are a few position battles to keep an eye on this spring.

1. Blue Jays: Toronto acquired two second basemen this offseason, one via free agency and the other in a trade. At this point in the beginning of Spring Training it is basically a dead heat for the starting job. Maicer Izturis is a career utility infielder that has never played more than 122 games in a season. He’s a career .273 hitter with no power and moderate speed for a middle infielder, last year stealing a career-best 17 bases. He’s good-not-great with the glove. He does a lot of things pretty well; he’s fundamentally sound. Emilio Bonifacio is five years younger and has blazing speed. In 2011 as a full-time starter he hit .296 with 40 stolen bases, but did strikeout 129 times.

Bonifacio and Izturis are both switch-hitters that are moderate defensively, although Izturis is quite a bit better at second. They can play just about anywhere, but that’s pretty much a moot point as the only real opening is at second base. Izturis is a balanced player with a low ceiling. Bonifacio adds a big speed element but his batting average is unpredictable, although the last few years he is walking more and boosting his OBP.

As the Jays already have speed merchant Rajai Davis on the bench, I would start Bonifacio in the nine hole at second. Bonifacio has an on base percentage of .362 versus lefties over the last three seasons and is still on the upswing in his career. But performance in spring training could make things the other way around.

2. Orioles: The final starting rotation spot in Baltimore is wide open and there’s a whole bunch of pitchers in the running. Tommy Hunter was a long shot and had a poor first game so he’s behind the pack. But Steve Johnson, Jair Jurrjens, Jake Arrieta, Zach Britton, Brian Matusz and T.J. McFarland are all still possible candidates. Of that group Johnson pitched really well last year while making just a few starts (4-0, 2.11 ERA, .174 average against, 1.07 WHIP in 38 innings). Jurrjens was an All-Star in 2011 (also really good in 2009) but bombed last year. He tends to pitch lights-out every other year, so here’s hoping 2013 continues the trend. He hit 93 on the radar gun in Sunday’s game, so that’s a good sign. Arrieta, Britton, Matusz and McFarland are more likely to be fighting for a long-middle-relief role with the losers pitching in Triple-A. But anything can happen this spring and Buck Showalter is far from making a decision.

3. Yankees: Yes, Francisco Cervelli and Chris Stewart are fighting for the starting catcher job but let’s be real; neither is expected to do much more than catch breaking balls. The real question is in the outfield.

Curtis Granderson’s injury presents a real dilemma. Even if just for one month, it’s tough to replace a 42/115/110 guy. Brian Cashman is unwilling to use Eduardo Nunez in the outfield and does not want to bring in Johnny Damon for an audition. I sure as heck hope he doesn’t break open the piggy bank to acquire Vernon Wells’ or Alfonso Soriano’s terrible contract for a one month surrogate. That leaves Juan Rivera (34) and Matt Diaz (turning 35), two career bench players that got on base less than 29% of the time last year while providing no power or speed competing with minor leaguers that are unlikely to be ready for the Major Leagues. Perhaps Zoilo Almonte, Slade Heathcott or Melky Mesa will emerge (great trio of names, Zoilo, Slade and Melky) and we can see what they have to offer. Zoilo probably offers the most long-term potential, and has already made a little positive impact hitting a home run and throwing a runner out at third base. Thankfully and hopefully it is just for one month, but there are five guys to keep tabs on in Yankee camp.

4. Rays: It is unlikely that Wil Myers will come up to the team before May and Tampa’s roster is pretty settled. But after David Price and a trio of strong young arms (Matt Moore, Jeremy Hellickson and Alex Cobb) there is still one starting pitcher spot still available.

It is pretty much a three-legged race between Jeff Niemann, Roberto Hernandez, and youngster Chris Archer. Hernandez is new to town and while he has one great year on his resume (19-8, 3.06), that was a long time ago and there have been four poor seasons since. Unless he catches lightning in a bottle this spring I see little chance he gets the nod. Archer, 24, is another great young arm that showed he has great stuff in limited action last year for the Rays (29.1 innings, 36 strikeouts, just 23 hits). He’s got a great fastball and slider. Niemann is a low-risk, low-reward candidate for the final spot. His fourth season was injury-plagued but he was effective when he was out there (3.08 ERA, 1.11 WHIP). He is out of minor league options and I assume that helps his chances. I find it hard to believe that the Rays would start the season with four pitchers age 25 and under. Niemann gives them a little stability and Archer can grow some more in Triple-A, so I think they will go with Jeff. They are in conversations about possible trades, and that would thin out the competition.