why, Memphis, why?

The Memphis Grizzlies have their best team in franchise history. They have the strongest starting lineup in the NBA with very good balance all the way around. They are 4th in the West right now and have as good a shot as any to make the Finals. But on Wednesday night they prefer pinching pennies over winning as they completed a three team, 7 player trade that sends Rudy Gay to the Raptors.

Grizzlies get:
Ed Davis, Tayshaun Prince, Austin Daye, 2013 2nd round draft pick

Raptors get:
Rudy Gay, Hamed Haddadi

Pistons get:
Jose Calderon

This trade makes no sense to me. Yes, Rudy Gay was having a below-average first half. His points and shooting percentage are down. He has a very large contract from two years ago and the Grizzlies are feeling financially strapped for the future because of it. But come on; how often does Memphis get a good opportunity to contend? Why break up the band now? Gay still leads the Grizzlies in scoring. He also leads in minutes played, gets a lot of rebounds, and plays good defense. He’s a star. On a very balanced team he has scored at least 18.9 points per game the last five seasons. He’s only 26 years old. There was a reason the team gave him a large contract in 2010, and why now in midseason, when all the pieces finally fit together, is it the time to confess it was a bad decision?

Memphis made another trade a week ago losing Marreese Speights and a couple other players, saving them $6.4 million plus a $4 million luxury tax hit. There was no need to trade Rudy Gay.

Grizzlies received several players in this trade. Ed Davis is probably the most valuable. But he’s a power forward; Memphis already has three other big men in front of him on the depth chart! How often will he be on the court? Another aspect I heard is getting Davis makes Zach Randolph expandable next year. Hold on, you got rid of Rudy Gay and you’re already planning to get rid of All-Star Zach Randolph too??

Memphis received Tayshaun Prince and Austin Daye to fill in the void left by Gay’s departure. Rudy Gay is 26 and in his prime. Tayshaun Prince is turning 33 next month and has been declining for three years. Austin Daye is a warm body that offers very little. Despite Rudy Gay’s down year, Prince’s and Daye’s combined scoring average is still less than Gay’s. How does this make a Bottom Ten offensive team better?

As to the pick, second round draft picks rarely make an impact.

Why now? This trade hurts their chances of winning this year. Why not ride it out and get as much as you can with the group you have? I don’t know where they expect the points to come from. And the trade hurts them next year also, especially if they plan to shuttle off Zach Randolph.

The Celtics, Lakers, Spurs, Heat, and Thunder all showed that putting together a Super Team, a group with three or four dominant players, is a recipe for winning in the NBA. The Grizzlies had a Super Team, with Marc Gasol, Randolph, Gay, and Michael Conley (and Tony Allen, a top-level lock-down defender). The Spurs, Thunder, Jazz and Pacers have shown you can have a winning team in the NBA from a small market. But once again, the Grizzlies prefer to play the martyr card and cry, “We’re a small market team!” and demonstrate that saving money is preferable to giving their fans a chance, as faint as it may be, to see a champion. Isn’t it worth a shot?

Oh well. For the Memphis Grizzlies, this seems par for the course. This is the same team that traded Pau Gasol midseason, a trade that immediately put the Lakers in the NBA Finals three years in a row. At least this trade took the front headlines Wednesday away from the Nets getting blown out by the Heat and the Lakers again choking on the road.

Check out Making Sense of Sports for more great sports coverage and follow me on Twitter!

a good weekend for the underdogs

With the Super Bowl approaching and the Lakers and Celtics struggling, some of you may have forgotten that basketball is still going on.

It was a tough weekend for the Eastern Conference. On Saturday, the #2 Knicks, #3 Bulls, #4 Nets, and #5 Pacers all lost (to teams with worse records). The Heat and Hawks (#'s 1 and 6) were off Saturday, but they played and lost on Sunday. The #8 Celtics won Sunday ending their six-game losing streak, but also discovered that their best player Rajon Rondo tore is knee and is out the rest of the year. So you can consider that a loss too.

The #7 Milwaukee Bucks bucked the trend by beating the hot Golden State Warriors. That win along with everyone else's losses made it a pretty nice weekend in Wisconsin.

It was a pretty wacky weekend out West, too. Along with the #5 Warriors, the #1 Oklahoma City Thunder lost to the terrible Lakers, #3 LA Clippers fell to the Blazers, and the #4 Memphis Grizzlies also lost to the Hornets/Pelicans.

The Spurs have won 8 straight but look out: Wednesday night they host the 11-32 Bobcats. Fortunate for them, the weekend shenanigans ought to be well behind us by then.

Super Bowl storylines

It’s Media Week, the craziest time of the year. The biggest TV event of the year is a week away, the media circus is world’s biggest this side of Jets camp, and we will all be burned out by the time Sunday rolls around. Here are the four biggest stories coming into The Big Game. Once you read this, you can turn off the radio and TV, tune in Sunday afternoon, and you won’t have missed anything.

1. Kaepernicus. Ever since I first saw him on the field I knew that he was a future star and I’ve been saying that for a month. I didn’t realize that future is already here! He has only started half a season, but Colin Kaepernick… what can you say? The potential is through the roof.

The last two weeks were a snapshot of his arsenal and it’s the full package. He used his legs to blow out the Packers and did it in record fashion. Against the Falcons he used his arm to mount an impressive comeback on the road. Like LeBron James in the NBA, Kap is a freakish physical specimen. He is huge, 6-4, 230 lbs. He is very fast, outrunning everybody on the defense. A “former” pitcher, he can throw a baseball 92 mph and in like manner can throw a football with more velocity than any other quarterback. He has the accuracy of a Pro Bowl veteran and already has the knack for putting the ball in the perfect location for a receiver to catch and make a big play. He avoids mistakes. After each of the four interceptions he threw this year, he came back the next possession to lead the 49ers to a touchdown. When he runs with the football he has a knack to pick up a chunk of yards without taking big hits. Just the fear of him running opens up the whole offense for a Frank Gore handoff or a long pass to Michael Crabtree. He beat a lot of good teams in his short career, including the Bears, Packers, in New Orleans, in New England and in Atlanta. So yes, he has size, speed, arm strength, accuracy, decision-making, and composure.

Face it; Jim Harbaugh is smarter than you. He knows more about quarterbacks than you. Alex Smith took the Niners to the NFC Championship Game a year ago and is a nice player. He probably could have gotten them back this year, too. Harbaugh took a lot of criticism for sticking with Kap after Smith got healthy. Smith will have a starting job next year somewhere. But he’s not a star. Kaepernick is the full package and we haven’t even seen his full potential.

2. January Joe. Ben Roethlisberger has the nickname and reputation of Big Ben, but did you know that Joe Flacco is even larger (6-6, 245 lbs, compared to Big Ben 6-5, 241)? Joe Flacco hasn’t received a whole lot of credit or recognition in his career. During the regular season he shows flashes of brilliance but also makes a lot of poor decisions. Nobody throws deep as often as Flacco; as a result, his completion percentage isn’t as high as it could be. For the most part of his career the Ravens defense has been the best in the league and on offense he has had Ray Rice, one of the NFL’s best running backs, as a sidekick so he hasn’t had to throw for 4,000 yards. He’s big, but he never takes off (hasn’t had 90 yards rushing in any of the last four seasons).

But let’s get the facts straight: Flacco has started every game for the Ravens since they drafted him five years ago. And once the playoffs start he doesn’t mess around. He has won eight playoff games (at least one every year) including a record six on the road. He was good enough to win the AFC Championship last year. This season the defense has been down and Rice had his least productive season, and Flacco still led the Ravens to the Super Bowl. Last week Tom Brady struggled with the wind on Sunday; Flacco did better when he was throwing into the wind! This postseason Flacco has thrown 8 touchdowns without an interception and had two of his most impressive games ever against Peyton’s Broncos and Tom’s Patriots.

It’s hard to quantify and rank Flacco. Is he elite, a Top Five quarterback? Probably not, probably not even Top Ten. But if he gets a Super Bowl ring, especially this year when the Ravens collectively are the weakest they have been since he arrived, it doesn’t matter where he ranks. “All he does is win,” even more so than Tim Tebow. This has been a statement season for him. Last week he turned 28, so we have another decade of Flacco to go.

3. HarBowl. Yeah, you’ve probably heard of this one. This is the first time that two brothers have faced each other as coaches in the Super Bowl. We all hear how Rex Ryan and the Jets went to two straight Conference Championship games; so have Jim Harbaugh and Jeff Harbaugh, and they’ve gone on to win one of them! And actually, they should have won last year, too.

It’s impossible to talk about Joe Flacco without mentioning John Harbaugh. Both guys arrived at the same time and have been consistent during all the winning. While Joe has won eight playoff games (possibly nine) in five years, so has John. John inherited a talented team, but they were coming off a season where the quarterback got hurt midseason (then retired) and the team clearly had grown tired of Coach Brian Billick, losing nine straight games. As talented as the ’02-‘07 Ravens were, they only made the playoffs twice in those six seasons and never won a playoff game. Since John arrived, no team has been more consistent, making the playoffs and advancing each year, and they’ve been a real bear to face. John has instilled an aura of physicality that is unmatched. And I don't think he wants to lose to his younger brother.

As a quarterback with the Colts, Jim Harbaugh came a dropped pass away from the Super Bowl. As a quarterbacks coach for the Raiders, he helped Rich Gannon have one of the greatest seasons ever for a quarterback. As head coach he helped the University of San Diego have back-to-back 11-1 seasons. At Stanford he coached Andrew Luck, one of football’s brightest prospects ever. He also led the Cardinals to three wins over USC in four years, including one when they were 41 point underdogs (biggest upset in NCAA history). He also led Stanford to their first 11-1 season in school history. As a head coach of the 49ers he helped Alex Smith finally become a quality starting quarterback and Smith had his best two years (okay, year and a half) of his career. And now he has developed Colin Kaepernick into a star. In his first two years he has led a talented but underachieving Niners team to an NFC Championship game and the Super Bowl I would say that Jim knows a thing or two about quarterbacks and coaching.

4. Ray Lewis. Yes, we are all tired of his act and his preaching. But look at the difference his presence makes on the field. Without him the defense was a joke. With him, Captain America and the Patriots were shut out in the second half. Lewis makes everyone around him on defense better. He is old and not as dominant as he was in his prime. Yet in these three playoff games he had 44 tackles. The former Super Bowl MVP has announced his retirement following the season we know this is it for Reverend Ray, but his season continues to be extended. And this week he hopes to make like John Elway and Michael Strahan and win the Super Bowl in his last game. He is one of the game’s most inspirational leaders on the field, arguably the best middle linebacker in the history of the NFL, and definitely the most dominating player in my lifetime. I’m looking forward to his pregame dance and seeing him cover the middle of the field for the last time.

Pats fan abandoning ship?

I have been admittedly gaga for Tom Brady his whole career and a Patriots fan since he’s come to town. But this team has done enough lately to really make me question my loyalty.

1. Bill Belichick’s refusal to speak to Steve Tasker for CBS after Sunday night’s loss shows us once again that Belichick is a sore loser. And as Shannon Sharpe and Frank Schwab reminds us, this is not the first time he’s done something like this. Coach, be a good sport. Your team has won this game five times in the last dozen years and the other coach spoke each time. Everybody loses. Get over it.

I’m tired of Coach Belichick’s antics, any time the microphone is on. You have a dream job. Be a professional. Smile once in a while.

2. Tom Brady made a dirty play during the game. At the end of the first half, Brady was scrambling and went into a slide. He raised his leg up at the oncoming defender like Ty Cobb spiking the second baseman. That bothered me. I’ve never seen this by an NFL quarterback.

3. Several Patriots were honored by being selected to the Pro Bowl and most of them have pulled out. Tom Brady withdrew because of injury. What injury? “The nature of the injury is unclear.” Winning the Conference Championship is your ticket out of the meaningless Pro Bowl game and since you lost, you should go. Just another instance of them being sore losers and poor sports.

4. I’ve been saying for years that Tom Brady is the best quarterback in the league and the best all time. It’s true that he orchestrates the best offense in the league, no question. He is the reason. They blow teams out of the water on a routine basis. But in an important game when the game is close? On 3rd and 4 and 4th and 4, the end of the first half, and several other instances yesterday, Tom Brady makes either poor decisions or very poor throws in very important situations. . He never throws deep and he was significantly compromised by the weather yesterday while Joe Flacco played a perfect game. I remember vividly in the loss to the 49ers last month, in the fourth quarter on a critical 4th and 2, Danny Woodhead (or another running back ) was wide open five yards away and Brady threw it over his head. In all their close games the last few years he doesn’t make the winning throw. I haven’t seen a clutch performance by Tom Brady in a very long time.

If my team was trailing in the fourth quarter and needed a touchdown, there are honestly many quarterbacks I would rather have than Tom Brady to lead a long drive. Aaron Rodgers, Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson, Eli Manning and Joe Flacco would all be above him on my list. I wouldn’t ever say that four years ago.

5. The whole Spygate thing was cheating. It didn’t bother me much earlier (if you ain’t cheatin’ you ain’t tryin’), but it’s an example that this organization has been a bit squirrelly in the past.

I love Rob Gronkowski and Vince Wilfork. But the rest of the Patriots (including Tom Brady) make it very easy to root against them, and I don’t think I care to defend them anymore.

recapping the battle of New York

The season series between the Knicks and Nets concluded on MLK Monday. The Nets won this last one 88-85 at Madison Square Garden to split the four game series 2-2. Here's my biased but honest take on the (yes, I'll say it) new rivalry.

- With the Nets down by one with 25 seconds left, the ball was in Joe Johnson’s hands. JJ makes a move to get in position, gets a shot off and drained it. On the ensuing possession for the Knicks down by one, the ball was in Carmelo’s hands. Melo drove to the baseline, had a look, but put up an air ball.

- Everyone was quick to criticize Joe Johnson early in the season. But this was at least the third game that he buried the game winning shot. JJ scored 10 points in the fourth quarter (including two big threes). Carmelo missed all six shots in the final period.

- Brook Lopez has become a complete center. He scored just 14 points today (after 20+ the last three games) but added 11 rebounds and four blocks. Brook plays good defense and finally is getting rebounds, and is one of the best offensive centers in the NBA. Deserves to be an All Star.

- Nets are 11-2 since P.J. Carlesimo took over for Avery Johnson. Those wins include at Oklahoma City, at MSG, and home wins over the Pacers and Hawks. JJ and Deron Williams are playing very effectively. After their breakout start, the Knicks are 7-9 since December 17.

- The Nets are a puzzle with a lot of pieces that all fit very well together. Nets bench is very solid. Reggie Evans is an elite rebounder and ultimate teammate. His emergence into the starting lineup leaves Humphries (11 points, 13 rebounds) becoming a solid contributor off the bench along with Andray Blatche, Keith Bogans, C.J. Watson, MarShon Brooks, and an up-and-coming Mirza Teletovic. They started somewhat slow this season but now that they are getting used to playing together, this is a complete team.

- Knicks are a very flawed team. They live and die with the three, and that is not a recipe for long term success. They can’t rebound. Today they were -15, including allowing 12 offensive rebounds. Knicks are without Raymond Felton right now, and earlier in the season they had him without Carmelo for several games. Without both out there they really struggle to score as a team. (And by the way, Felton scores but only because he is such a high-volume shooter. I don’t care for him.) They are depending on a bunch of ancient players (Jason Kidd, Rasheed Wallace, Marcus Camby, Kurt Thomas, and Amar’e Stoudemire) and players coming off injuries (Iman Shumpert and Amar’e, again). This plan is backfiring.

- Nets won’t continue an 11-2 pace and Felton will be back. We haven’t reached the All Star Game yet, and the Knicks are still a game up. But I feel much more comfortable with the Brooklyn Nets in the long run this season than the Knicks.

The one thing I am the saddest about is that this is the last time these teams play before the playoffs. Brooklyn/New York should happen ten times a season, not four all before February.

why hockey is the best sport ever

Growing up in Vermont, I appreciate hockey. I was on my first team at the age of 5. Though my career was short, it was my favorite sport I ever played. I went to the University of Vermont hockey games nearly every week growing up and in high school I played in the pep band. I once got nailed in the head by a flying puck while watching a game with my fourth grade teacher. Currently, I’m a reporter for high school and college boys and girls hockey games in the Green Mountain State.

I don't write about hockey much. But anybody who has been to one will tell you that hockey is the best sport to watch in person. I love the NFL, baseball, and NBA. But as the NHL season finally kicks off today, I thought this an opportune time to list 17 ways that hockey is the greatest sport.

1. Anyone can run on grass and kick a ball. Strap on skates and chase each other on ice with sticks, now you have real men.

2. No cheerleaders.

3. Arenas are large but you can still get a good view almost anywhere you sit. And the play moves from end to end regularly; you’re never stuck waiting while a team goes on a long drive into the red zone on the other end of the field 120 yards away.

4. It is the fastest-paced sport. Players fly across the ice. Play stoppages are few and short. Teams only get one 30-second timeout per game. There are two universal potty/food breaks with plenty of time so you never have to miss anything, even if you have to wait in line.

5. Everyone gets plenty of turns to play during a game. Shifts last about 60 seconds.

6. Big hits are plentiful. Guys get pounded into the glass and boards every 5 seconds. But it’s okay; they wear plenty of pads. Unlike other sports where players sit out for sore elbows, back stiffness, turf toe or jammed fingers, nobody misses a hockey game due to injury unless they are dead. If you take a slap shot to the face they stitch you up and send you back on the ice for more.

7. When someone breaks a rule not only does the team have to work harder, but that someone has to go sit in the corner and think about it for a couple minutes.

8. Each team has a designated guy wearing body armor whose job is to block pucks going up to 100 mph fired right at him.

9. Face-offs, power plays, penalty kills, shootouts, and zambonis.

10. There is no “hero ball” in hockey. One player can’t skate past two defenders and get a decent shot off. It takes good teamwork and strategy.

11. Someone scores a goal and people throw an octopus (or fish, lobster or shark) onto the ice. How crazy is that? Score three goals and fans not only tip their cap, they throw it to you.

12. Assists all around.

13. Nobody cares if you have tattoos up and down your arms or crazy hair because you are completely covered from head to toe. The only way to distinguish players is by their size.

14. Hockey penalty shots are so much more interesting than soccer penalty kicks.

15. Have you seen the size of the championship trophy?

16. This video.

17. I tried to avoid it but I can’t. Everyone loves a good hockey fight.

Mistakes cost Manning and the Broncos; Ravens steal a win

Last week I said that a lot of balls would have to roll the Ravens way for them to win. Here’s what happened for the Broncos:

- Peyton interception returned for a touchdown
- Tried a long field goal near end of first half, missed, giving the Ravens a short field for a last minute touchdown
- Gave up 70 yard touchdown bomb with 30 seconds
- Peyton kneels to end the 4th quarter
- on 3rd and 13 from the 3, gave up 24 yard completion
- Peyton interception in OT

That is a lot of mistakes/gaffes. And there were more head-scratching moves. Late in the fourth quarter, the drive before the Flacco bomb, the Broncos handed off to Ronnie Hillman all five plays. Yeah, they burned clock and timeouts, but Peyton Manning is your best player! Get a couple first downs and the Ravens don’t even get the ball back.

The Bomb: how can you play defense any more poorly? The cornerback cover-man let Jacoby Jones run past him, and then Raheem Moore got caught in the twilight zone, somewhat going after the ball, not getting close, letting Jones get past him. Catch or not, there is no way that Jones should be allowed to get past the defender. If he catches it and is tackled, the Ravens are still on the 20 yard line down by 7 points with no timeouts and the clock running. Moore misjudged the ball like a bad minor league DH stuck in right field. The Ravens must just have a knack for creating braindead, last second, game-losing defensive mistakes (4th and 29 vs. Chargers, The Bomb, also a big 3rd down completion from the 3 yard line in overtime).

And then after the touchdown that tied the game, Broncos had 31 seconds, two timeouts and Peyton Manning under center, and Coach Fox calls for a QB kneel. How many times have we seen Peyton Manning take the ball under a minute and get the ball downfield for at least a FG try? (At least 3 times against the Patriots!) For both of the last two possessions, Fox did not give Manning an opportunity to win it, playing merely not to lose. It didn’t work.

What can you say about Joe Flacco? He wins games! This is not a great Ravens team. Even with Ray Lewis back, they are missing a handful of impact defenders. Ravens fell behind four times in this game, and Joe Flacco led the Ravens back each time, and the Ravens gained 479 yards on offense against a Top 2 defense. Flacco has led the Ravens to 5 playoff games on the road (yes, that’s more than Mark Sanchez) and 7-4 record overall. He plays his best games in the biggest spotlight. John Harbaugh has been the coach during that whole stretch, and you can’t underestimate his impact. People point out that Ray Lewis is old and a shell of himself, but he led the team with an impressive total of 10 tackles against the Broncos. Lewis + Flacco + Harbaugh = 3rd AFC Championship game.

In the chances he did have, I’m not impressed with Peyton Manning. Sue me. For his illustrious career, he has a 9-11 record in the playoffs, losing a bunch of games at home where his team was a significant favorite. The Broncos had a great defense and kicker last year, Tebow got them to the second round with a big playoff win. This year all I heard was how Peyton Manning makes the Broncos team so much better, he’s the MVP, blah blah blah. With a more healthy defense, the Broncos finished no better with Manning. This Ravens team wasn’t much better than last year’s Steelers team. Peyton Manning is a charismatic guy, amazing regular season quarterback, but unlike Flacco he does not take his team to wins in the biggest games. The Broncos even had two kicks returned for touchdowns and were playing an old Ravens defense. Peyton threw a pick-six early and the interception at the end of the first overtime lost the game.

Poor coaching decisions, dreadful defense, and two costly interceptions by a legendary quarterback. You can’t win a playoff game with that.

I picked: Broncos by 11. Outcome: Ravens by 3

Falcons survive Seahawks

This game, the one over the weekend I looked forward to the most, was what I expected. Atlanta benefited from big home field advantage and the Falcons (NFL’s least penalized team) were only penalized for 11 yards. Seahawks looked jetlagged to start and fell behind 20-0 at halftime. Russell Wilson showed a little inexperience at the end of the first half as the Seahawks were unable to get any points, even though they moved the ball into the red zone. Seattle turned it on in the second half and nearly pulled off the upset. In the end Atlanta won by 2 points, my pregame prediction.

The Falcons won, but it's tough to feel very confident going forward. Losing a 20 point lead at home in the fourth quarter, barely averting disaster with a field goal in the last seconds sends up alarms. Three things really bother me about the Falcons in this game. The first was the inability to close out and keep the Seahawks out of the game. Seattle had four long touchdown drives of 60+ yards in the second half. Atlanta couldn’t stop them on defense or get a first down on offense.

The second thing is the Falcons defense, especially the secondary. They are terrible tacklers. They try to get by on shoulder bumps and one arm grabs, and Seattle really lit them up in the second half. Watching the Patriots/Texans right after the Falcons was night and day, literally and metaphorically. In the late game both teams were great tacklers; Atlanta has very poor technique. I am going to start taking note of players who miss tackles frequently; they don’t get enough attention.

Finally, Matt Ryan finally got his win but he very well could have lost it. In the fourth quarter right after Seattle just scored, the Falcons had a second down in their own territory with a 13 point lead with about 11 minutes left. (video) Matt Ryan stared down Roddy White the whole time, telegraphing the play to the safety Earl Thomas, then forced the throw into double coverage. Not only that, it was a poor pass, overthrowing the receiver. Earl Thomas intercepted it easily, and the momentum was rolling Seattle’s way. The only thing that could save the game for the Seahawks were forcing turnovers, and that one was a gift. It only took them four plays to get the ball into the endzone and make it a 6-point difference. (The Falcons responded with a three-and-out punt.) That was a brutal play that kept the Seahawks hanging around. In four career playoff games, Matt Ryan has committed 8 turnovers.

On the other side, even though the Seahawks lost you have to feel good about their future. In my mind, Russell Wilson was clearly the best quarterback from this year's rookie class. For the second week in a row, in a road playoff game, RW, Pete Carroll and the 'Hawks shook off a big deficit to come back and put themselves into a position to win. Wilson threw for 385 yards, ran for 60 more, scored three touchdowns, and time after time ran away from defenders to avoid taking big hits. Unlike mobile guys like Vick, Tebow, Big Ben and RG3, Wilson uses his legs to get away from defenders and free up his receivers. The Seahawks were one defensive play away from a win, when Tony Gonzalez got open in the middle of the field with 10 seconds left. And even then, Seattle had a chance to win.

I hope (but I doubt) that this is the last we see a coach "ice" the kicker. It doesn't work. Especially on a 51 yard field goal, Coach Carroll messed up big time. If you want to call a timeout, do it much before the ball can be snapped. A 50+ yard shot is really a 50/50 chance, and Carroll allowed Matt Bryant to get a practice kick in before the real thing. He missed wide right the first time and on the second try nailed it right through the center.

I picked: Falcons by 2. Outcome: Falcons by 2

Patriots take care of Texans

It's weird. Without Rob Gronkowski and Danny Woodhead the Patriots and Tom Brady looked inconsistent passing the ball. Brady forced too many balls to Welker that bounced off his arm and Aaron Hernandez dropped a catch or two. Then I notice that Brady still threw for 344 yards and they scored 41 points.

Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, Daniel Manning and J.J. Watt all had really good games. After a slow start Foster was hard to stop the last three quarters. Schaub found and completed a lot of open passes to Johnson. Daniel Manning had three big kick returns that led to three Texans scores and 17 points. Watt and the Texans’ defensive line caused a lot of pressure on Brady. But the Texans wasted some opportunities, settling for just a field goal and four straight punts despite a poor start offensively by New England, and while the Texans gained 425 yards, it seemed like the Patriots defense was better than the Texans offense.

As they say, “next man up!” Losing Gronk and Woody left a void in the running and passing game, and those were both filled by Shane Vereen. Vereen was really the difference maker, picking up 124 yards and 3 touchdowns. Just another example of how Tom Brady makes everyone around him better and turns guys you’ve never heard of into big-time contributors.

Bill Belichick and Tom Brady had one of the strangest sequences at the end of the first half. In a 17-10 game, right after Houston scored their first touchdown, the Patriots got the ball back around the 20 with 1:09 left with two timeouts. They seemed to change their whole offensive gameplan, focused on what happens when we give the Texans the ball back. You have Tom Brady! Do something! It's like they had no faith in their ability to get a first down. As a result they didn't advance the ball at all, they didn't burn any of the Texans' three timeouts, and didn't burn any clock. They punted, a poor punt at that, and five plays later Houston was in field goal range before the half. A little more aggressive playcalling (or just smarter) and the Pats could have received the second half kickoff leading 20-10. Instead they led only 17-13.

It was a weird game. The Texans started it off with a 94 yard kickoff return. Gronk and Woody left in the opening plays of the game and the Pats punted twice to start. Brandon Lloyd was called for unsportsmanlike conduct for flipping the ball to the ref after a missed catch that took the Patriots out of the redzone. The Texans lone touchdown of the first half was questionable; it looked like Arian Foster was stopped inches short of the goal line and that would have set up 4th down. Then the goofy end of the first half that I just described. In the second half the Patriots defense forced a fumble but the ref said that a whistle had been blown for forward progress. New England still won comfortably 41-28, but it felt like it should have been 60-13. Seeing how the other elite quarterbacks fared (Peyton and Rodgers), the Patriots are happy to still be alive.

I picked: Patriots by 17. Outcome: Patriots by 13.

Divisional Round Preview and Predictions

- Ravens vs. Broncos
A rematch of the Week 15 game where the Broncos beat the Ravens by 17 in Baltimore. Now they're in Denver. Peyton Manning has won 9 straight games against the Ravens, and most of those were when Baltimore had a good defense. Denver has had an extra week to rest and prepare. Broncos have won 11 in a row overall. Sometimes in the second round, the team that played the week before has built some momentum coming in (2012 Giants, 2011 Packers), but that is not true with the Ravens, who stymied the rookie Andrew Luck but have not been playing great football as of late. Ravens have Ray Lewis this time around, who certainly gives them a boost emotionally, and Joe Flacco is playing in his 9th road game so there is plenty of experience on the Ravens in this situation. But a lot of balls will have to roll their way to win. Denver has the edge in nearly every single position. Broncos 25, Ravens 14

- Packers vs. 49ers
A rematch of the Week 1 game where the 49ers took it to the Packers at Lambeau Field. Aaron Rodgers has been on a roll, throwing 11 touchdowns, zero interceptions in his last 5 games. The defense stepped up last week in their blowout win over the Vikings, but at home against Joe Webb how much can you take from it? Aaron Rodgers is the best player on the field but San Francisco has a very strong all-around team. Their d-line will dominate the GB o-line, putting pressure on Rodgers all day and keeping the weak Packer rushing attack at bay. Colin Kaepernick may be a first-year starter but he can make big plays with his arm or legs. Following a week of rest, Frank Gore will have a big day against a generous defense (125+ yards rushing) and the 49ers will have at least 2 rushing touchdowns. Fun fact: Aaron Rodgers grew up in northern California as a 49ers fan and Colin Kaepernick grew up in Wisconsin rooting for the Packers. 49ers 33, Packers 27

- Seahawks vs. Falcons
The only non-rematch of the weekend's games. Seattle is on fire, winning six straight games, including one on the road in Washington a week ago. Falcons are 33-6 with Matt Ryan at home. One reason the Seahawks have been so successful this year is because they have the league's best cornerback set and a good pass rush, too. But this game they will be without leading sacker, Chris Clemons, giving Matt Ryan a little more time to hit Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez. I love Russell Wilson and this Seahawks team; I think they are the best team in the NFC. But being led by a rookie quarterback across country for the second week in a row against a veteran team that has been waiting, a team solid from top to bottom, I give the Falcons the edge. Falcons 22, Seahawks 20

- Texans vs. Patriots
The third rematch of the weekend. In Week 14, the Patriots demolished the Texans at Foxborough, leading 42-7 halfway through the fourth quarter (42-14 the final). And that was without Gronkowski. The Texans have a very complete team (star power with Foster, Andre Johnson and Watt) but look at the coaching matchup: Bill Bellichek and Tom Brady against Gary Kubiak and Matt Schaub. The Texans' two worst games of the season were against elite quarterbacks with deep receiving corps (Packers and Patriots); this game won't be much different. By the way, from what I can tell from the forecast, it should be 50 degrees at the stadium. Patriots 38, Texans 21

Looking ahead...

Falcons over 49ers 24-20
Patriots over Broncos 23-17

Super Bowl
Patriots over Falcons 38-21

my 15 gripes of the Hall of Fame

I think the writers did a terrible job. Getting right to the point, here's my problem with the Baseball Hall of Fame, the BBWAA, and the voting process.

1. In 1992, Tom Seaver received the largest percent of the the votes ever, 98.8%.

Seaver won 311 games, had a career ERA 2.86, compiled 3,640 strikeouts, was selected to 12 All Star teams, won Rookie of the Year, won 3 Cy Young awards, won a World Series, pitched a no-hitter, and was an all-around great guy.

And five voters did not think he belonged in the Baseball Hall of Fame.

9 knuckleheads did not vote for Hank Aaron, 20 people didn’t vote for Ted Williams, 23 people didn’t vote for Willie Mays, 23 people didn’t vote for Stan Musial, and 57 voters left off Yogi Berra.

There is no reason any of those players should not receive 100% votes. If people with a prolonged career as a baseball writer and honored with a counted vote for the Hall of Fame can't select the most obvious candidates in the history of the game, why do those trolls get a vote?

2. Players can remain on the ballot for 15 years. Seriously, what changes 19 years after a player retires that helps his chances of getting into the Hall of Fame? If it takes more than five or six tries, maybe that's a good indication he doesn't belong.

3. Pete Rose, the hit king whose record will never be broken, was banned from the Hall of Fame because he bet on baseball after he retired. Meanwhile, the Yankees and Mets are sponsored by Mohican Sun and Foxwoods Casino. As are most other teams.

4. Bert Blyleven (career record 287-250, two-time All-Star) in but Curt Schilling (216-146, six-time All-Star) and Jack Morris (254-186, five-time All Star/three-time All Star Game starter, Opening-Day starter 14 years in a row) out? Is this the Hall of Fame or the Hall of Longevity?

5. In a year where the ballot included players with 762 home runs, 3,060 hits, 354 wins and 4,672 strikeouts, the greatest hitting catcher of all time, and the fourth best first baseman of all time...

...5 people voted for no one, 2 voted for Shawn Green, and 1 voted for Aaron Sele. No one was elected. One writer voted for Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens and NOT Mike Piazza. Explain that.

6. The primary reason baseball writers didn't vote for players was because of speculation and suspicion of steroid use. They never failed a drug test. They never broke a league rule. Clemens was suspected but was found not guilty in a court of law because the only evidence of his use was provided by compulsive liars. The evidence against Bonds, McGwire and Sosa is pretty conclusive. But what about guys like Mike Piazza and Jeff Bagwell? All there is is unfounded speculation and suspicion created by columnists. And that is enough to keep them out of the Hall of Fame? You want to keep Palmeiro out for failing a drug test and being a moron in front of Congress, fine; but there is nothing to link Piazza or Bagwell.

7. This was a blatantly cowardly, self-serving, self-righteous move to turn attention to the writers instead of the players. There were plenty of deserving candidates, but the writers felt a need to "prove" something.

8. Baseball took advantage of McGwire and Sosa to really blossom into the most popular era ever for the sport. The race of '98 revived the sport back completely from the strike of '94, and it benefited fans, writers, players, and the entire league. And now when there's time for these players to finally get recognized and honored for what they did, the baseball world wants to distance themselves as much as possible and discredit what they accomplished? Thanks.

9. Did you see them play? I didn't like him but still, Barry Bonds was the most dominant hitter I've ever seen. He had a slugging percentage of .863 one year. He had an on-base-percentage of .609 another season. He walked 232 times in one season. He's the only member of the 500-500 club and the MVP a record 7 times. He was listed as the #6 Best Baseball Player of All Time (and that's being conservative!). And 64% of the voters don't think he belongs in the Hall of Fame? Then why have a Hall of Fame?

10. "Cheating" in baseball is nothing new. Gaylord Perry was famous for it on the field. Whitey Ford was legendary for illegally scuffing the baseball. Many players were encouraged to take illegal amphetamines, including Mike Schmidt. Players were using testosterone supplements in the 1890s. The MVP award is named after a racist Commissioner, and blacks weren't allowed in the league until 1947. Mickey Mantle was a drunk and a philanderer. The old-timers were no better or cleaner than the guys now. It didn't stop them from voting the guys in then, yet 2013 is the year that people suddenly care about morals?

11. "You can't know who did it or didn't do it, so leave them all out" is the dumbest argument ever.

12. Why is baseball (along with cycling *yawn* and the Olympics) the only sport that cares about PEDs? What about football and basketball?

13. Many of the Founding Fathers and early leaders of America were slave owners. It wasn't a good thing but it certainly wasn't illegal back then. They can still be honored and have a place in history. They are on display at National Museums everywhere. The mission of the Baseball Hall of Fame is "Preserve History, Honoring Excellence, and Connecting Generations." Yet these writers want to pretend that the 1985-2005 years didn't happen? They weren't important or relevant? What is this, Nazi Germany or Communist China?

14. What's the point of a Baseball Hall of Fame without the Hit King, Home Run King, and arguably the greatest pitcher of all time?

15. What the heck, my ballot would have had: Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mike Piazza, Curt Schilling, Jack Morris, Edgar Martinez, Sammy Sosa

highlights from the Rex and Woody show

On Tuesday, nine days after the Jets finished a 6-10 season, Jets owner Woody Johnson and head coach Rex Ryan finally sat down for their end of season press conference. It was the last of all the teams (that have been eliminated) to take place. Here are some of the highlights from it (along with comments from the peanut gallery).

- On former general manager Mike Tannenbaum, fired on Black Monday:

Rex: "I'd like to thank Mike for... all the blood, sweat and tears he poured into it for the four years."

Blood, sweat and tears? Are we talking about Jack Bauer or the Jets' GM?

Rex: "We made a ton of decisions together and they were always Jets decisions."

'We made a ton of decisions together,' so why is he gone and you still here?

Rex: "I know that I don't know who the general manager is, but I promise you, he wants to win as bad as I do."

Again, who is he?

- On Rex Ryan as the head coach

Woody: "I fervently believe that [Rex Ryan] has a rare ability on defense and… also on offense and special teams because he has had to fight against those, so he’s learned a lot and has great instinct."

Also on offense? Do you have evidence to support this? As for 'great instinct,' the only thing he has shown is "I believe Mark Sanchez gives us the best chance to win."

As for special teams, the Jets had the best special teams coach in the league and they still allowed two blocked punts (without blocking any themselves), three blocked field goals, fumbled the ball a lot, and gave up more touchdown returns than they scored.

Woody: "One of the things that impresses me about Rex as a leader is that he knows where he wants to improve and he’s committed to do that and I trust him because I’ve seen him lead this team."

Coming into the season, everybody knew the Jets had serious deficiencies on the offensive side of the football and Rex did absolutely NOTHING to improve it.

Woody: "I think he took us two years to a very high level."

Since when did winning the divisional round become the pinnacle of success? Marv Levy and Jim Kelly won four straight AFC Championships. Who cares??

Woody: "I have the ultimate confidence in Rex as a head coach, as a leader, as a motivator, as a play caller."

His team quit on him two years in a row.

Woody: [The potential general managers] know that Rex is a good coach and you can't always say that."

Who?

Woody: "No, I never considered [firing Coach Ryan] because of my confidence in him as a coach. Having been in business and in football for quite a while now, you can recognize talent when you see it. I hate to make excuses, but there are some extenuating circumstances that I think we can improve and get better."

Did he just make an excuse? When is it okay for a business to make an excuse? And would those extenuating circumstances include a lack of talent?

Woody: "I'm totally happy with Rex as head coach."

And, obviously, he is totally happy with 8-8 and 6-10 and missing the playoffs consecutive years.

Rex: "I think in many ways, I'm in much better shape than some [other head coaches] are."

Yeah, you can suck and not only keep your job, but get praise poured on you.

Rex: "I have an owner that's committed to winning, that has a passion for winning."

And is sitting right next to you. And has never seen winning.

- About the offense

Rex: "Last night, after thinking about it for a long time, I decided to make a change at the offensive coordinator spot by letting Tony Sparano go... I understand the circumstances that Tony was being dealt... I'm not saying Tony didn't do a good job because he did a tremendous job."

Define 'a tremendous job'

Rex: "Santonio Holmes was on pace to have a monster year, 1,200 yards receiving and 90 catches."

Um, Holmes finished with 272 yards and 20 catches.

Rex: "That’s why I’m so encouraged. You look at our offensive line."

You mean the one that allowed Greg McElroy to get sacked 11 times three weeks ago?

(question about having the offense he desires with Mark Sanchez as the starting quarterback) Rex: Let’s get the general manager and the offensive coordinator in place before we answer any questions specifically about players.

Quarterback is the most important position in football. You just admitted you don't know who your quarterback is. Where is your confidence coming from?

(question about not making what he wants to happen on offense after four years) Rex: "I think I have failed in that area."

Why are you still a head coach?

Rex: This has to get done, it's not a question will it get done. It has to get done. I've failed to this point..."

...therefore...

Rex: "When I mentioned the ground-and-pound, I think that carried over for years and years, but that was more based on really what was best for our team and the best way for our team to win at that time."

What about when you said it last summer? Were you basing that on the 2009 team or the 2012 team?

Rex: "I think before, maybe I misjudged the thing about I just want to ground-and-pound. Maybe I bought into that more than maybe I should have. But we have to have it. We have to have that kind of mentality.

Wait wait, we have to have the ground-and-pound? Or we have to have the mentality of ground-and-pound?

Rex: "I think back then I spoke about running the football and those types of things, I think they were really based on our personnel."

Yeah, and your personnel was not conducive to running the football.

- Rex Ryan rhetoric

Rex: “I can tell you this: as I look at it, we are going to be a dangerous football team. I can promise you that… You’re not going to want to play the New York Jets because I know the mentally that we’re going to take."

I think I've heard this before. Still waiting for results.

Rex: "We’re going to have a team and we’re not going to get bullied. … We’re going to be the team that you don’t want to play, that we are a dangerous football team, we’re going to attack you from the minute that whistle blows."

Just to make sure, Jets lost six games by more than 17 points this year.

Rex: "I have a group of core players that I think can be outstanding.”

I'm glad you think that. So do the Jaguars and Chiefs.

Rex: "There's no shortage of effort."

Is this the NFL or tee-ball?

Rex: I feel very, very good about the direction of the New York Jets and where we're going to go from this point forward."

You've gone from 11 wins to 8 wins to 6 wins.

(question, is there enough talent to go to the Super Bowl next year?) Rex: "Obviously there are a lot of things that we have to improve on. I think we just have to take little positive steps."

Little positive steps. They were eight wins away from winning the Super Bowl. Eight.

- Woody Johnson rhetoric

Woody: "I have ultimate confidence in this organization to be able to put a consistently winning team on the field. If you surround yourself with smart people, and people who are smart in a particular area, we’re talking football here, you’re going to get a good product."

Please define 'a consistently winning team.' Who have you been surrounding yourself with? Who are you surrounded by now? You don't have a general manager, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator, special teams coach or quarterback coach.

Woody: "I think everything I said in that statement that I released last week came from me."

Can you repeat that, please?

Woody: "Jets fans are going to have a great product. They’re going to be proud of their team and they’re going to see a very well-run organization that makes very good decisions."

Which decisions are those, hiring Mike Tannenbaum, trading up to draft Mark Sanchez, or trading for Tim Tebow? In the words of Trent Dilfer: "The Jets are dysfunction at its highest level in the National Football League."

Woody: "We’re going to try to get better, but our fans will stick with us because our fans love their team and we work for the fans.”

So will the writers.

Playoff Preview and Predictions

Bengals vs. Texans
This rematch of last year’s playoff game features two teams that appear to be going in different directions: Texans have been embarrassed in three of their last four games while the Bengals have won seven of their last eight. However, Houston has a much stronger team all around. Bengals have two Pro Bowlers, Texans have eight. Texans will be getting Brooks Reed and Alan Ball back after both missed recent games with injuries. Bengals have had a rough time protecting Andy Dalton, allowing 46 sacks and J.J. Watt and the Texans are one of the best defenses at pressuring quarterbacks. Dalton had a poor game in last year’s playoff matchup of these same teams, throwing three interceptions and getting sacked four times in the 31-10 blowout. The Bengals have A.J. Green but the Texans have their own superstar wideout, Andre Johnson, along with Jonathan Joseph, a lockdown cornerback that has done a good job neutralizing Green in previous matchups. Arian Foster had 153 yards and two touchdowns in Round One last year, and Houston was 7-0 in 2012 when Foster ran for more than 100 yards, so expect a whole lot of him in this game. I expect a similar outcome as last year. Texans 31, Bengals 16.

Vikings vs. Packers
Everything worked out for the Vikings last week; Adrian Peterson had a great game, Christian Ponder was very good, the defense shut down the Packers for one and a half quarters and they got an early lead big enough to withstand the Packers’ comeback. In a crazy game like that, I guess it simply comes down to the Vikings having the ball last. Adrian Peterson has really burned the Packers the last two years, rushing for 584 yards in three of the last four games and touchdown in each. But this weekend, I think he will have another outstanding game and the Packers can still win. Green Bay is getting pretty healthy and while they have holes, they are the better team with a much more explosive offense. Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Greg Jennings will be more than the Vikings can handle. The Packers are a much better home team than away. Ponder is dealing with a sore elbow, I don’t have a lot of confidence in him or his receivers, and the Packers’ defense will keep the Vikings’ a one-dimensional offense. Last week Minnesota had a few miracles; it’s a little much to expect lightning to strike twice. Packers 28, Vikings 24.

Colts vs. Ravens
The Ravens have not been playing well the second half of the season while Ray Lewis was out. The Colts are a great story this season with Chuck Pagano’s comeback against leukemia, Andrew Luck’s emergence and heroics, and the team breaking out in a big way. Andrew Luck has some good chemistry with Reggie Wayne and T.Y. Hilton. But I’m giving the edge and putting my confidence in the experience of the Baltimore Ravens. Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh have won five playoff games. The Ravens are an excellent home team. Ray Rice has been effective when given the ball, and is healthy since for some reason they hardly ever give it to him. I expect a big game for Rice, something in the area of 150 total yards and a couple touchdowns. The presence of Ray Lewis on the field will be a big boost for a struggling defense. Despite their disappointment down the stretch, the Ravens did show the Giants that they can still play big when it matters. Andrew Luck will get his chances down the road, but I’m sticking with Baltimore and look forward to another week with Ray Lewis in uniform. Ravens 28, Colts 17

Seahawks vs. Redskins
These are two exciting football teams that are both really hot right now. There’s nothing to really nitpick about either team, especially the offenses. Seattle has one of the very best secondaries in the league and RGIII will have a tough game throwing the ball down the field. Redskins have the best rushing offense in the NFL, but Seattle’s not far behind at #3. One area of concern for the Redskins: their defense was the most generous team on third downs, even during their seven game winning streak. Wilson has been the highest rated third down quarterback for half the year, averaging 9.3 yards per pass, and the Seahawks have converted 51% of their third downs over the last six games. The Seahawks Pete Carroll and Marshawn Lynch have led the Seahawks to a playoff win just a couple years ago, but that was in friendly Quest (now CenturyLink) Field in Seattle. All five of the Seahawks’ losses this year were on the road and this game is also on the East Coast. The Redskins have pretty much played seven straight playoff games already, and they may be getting a little burned out. This will be an exciting game. Seahawks 34, Redskins 28

You’ll have my preview of the second round next week but here’s the rundown of my Playoff and Super Bowl Predictions

Falcons over Seahawks
49ers over Packers
Falcons over 49ers

Broncos over Ravens
Patriots over Texans
Patriots over Broncos

Super Bowl
Patriots over Falcons

ranking playoff quarterbacks

1. Tom Brady. Leader of the best offense in the NFL. Turns ordinary joes into superstars. 16-6 record in the playoffs including five Super Bowl appearances. 109-24 touchdown to interception ratio the last three seasons. Passed for 4,827 yards and led Patriots to 49% third down conversion rate in 2012.

2. Peyton Manning. Four-time MVP. League leader in Total QBR, and Top 3 in touchdowns, completion percentage, passer rating, and yards per pass attempt. Led Broncos to eleven game winning streak to finish season, outscoring opponents 346-175 during that time.

3. Aaron Rodgers. Reigning MVP. League leader in passer rating for the second year in a row. 84-14 touchdown to interception ratio the last two seasons. Four games with 4+ touchdown passes in 2012.

4. Russell Wilson. Threw rookie-tying-record 26 touchdowns and ran for 4 more. Over the last half of the season Wilson was the NFL’s best quarterback, throwing for 20 touchdowns and just 3 turnovers, and had a passer rating over 104 in seven of those eight games, and the Seahawks averaged 37 points. Rushed for an additional 489 yards.

5. Robert Griffin III. Famous for his legs but even greater for his arm and his head. Rookie record passer rating of 102.4, and threw only 5 interceptions in 393 pass attempts. 65.6% completion rate and NFL-best 8.14 yards per pass attempt with no great receivers. Put that on top of 815 rushing yards (NFL-best 6.8 yards a carry), throw in Alfred Morris for balance and you have the toughest offense to cover.

6. Matt Ryan. Led the league in completion percentage; top five in yards, touchdowns, rating, Total QBR. Led Falcons to 3-0 record against current playoff teams. 0-3 career playoff record.

7. Joe Flacco. Playoff wins in all four career seasons. The physically largest caller in the field with one of the biggest cannons, at times he plays like an elite quarterback; at others he makes poor decisions.

8. Andrew Luck. #1 draft pick thrown into the deep end of the pool. Passed for 4,374 yards and turned the Colts from a 2-14 team to 11-5. Rookie records include single season passing yards, pass attempts (627), single game yards (433), fourth quarter comebacks (6). MVP in two years?

9. Colin Kaepernick. #3 in Total QBR behind only Manning and Brady. Led 49ers to 5-2 record, including a strong performance in win in New England. Future star.

10. Matt Schaub. Passed for over 4,000 yards for the third time. Zero playoff wins in 9 seasons, although his backup T.J. Yates won one for the Texans last year. Seems to come up small in every big moment.

11. Andy Dalton. One of league’s best QB-WR connections with A.J. Green. Taken Bengals to playoffs in both years after joining a 4-12 team in disarray.

12. Christian Ponder. Led a team devoid of any legitimate receivers for half the season to the playoffs, including wins over San Francisco, Houston, and Green Bay. Outplayed Aaron Rodgers in a must-win game last week.

NFL Power Report, end of season

After 17 weeks and 256 games the regular season is over. Here is Miller's Power Report.

Super Bowl Contenders

1. Patriots. Of their four losses, three were by a combined four points and in the other game against the 49ers they roared back from 28 points down and finished an onside kick away. Everyone knows they have the best offense in the league, and the Dolphins and Texans will tell you the defense can be surprisingly great at times, too. Rob Gronkowski is back for the playoffs. Patriots finished the season 11-1 against the AFC, and had the largest point differential and turnover differential in the league.

2. Seahawks. They finished the season on fire and look like they could be the best team in the league. The ‘Hawks scored 150 points in three games late in the season and also finished as the stingiest defense (just 15 points/game). So how did this team that beat the Patriots, Packers and 49ers lose to the Lions, Cardinals, Rams and Dolphins? Seattle was unstoppable at home; to succeed in the playoffs they will have to do it all on the road.

3. 49ers. The Niners can beat anybody. He’s not elite yet, but I really like Colin Kaepernick. Just don’t let the outcome of a game come down to the kicker. Getting a week off to rest makes the 49ers defense the best in the playoffs.

4. Broncos. Won their last 11 games and finished with a 6-game cushion in the division, much better than last year’s three-way tie. Broncos finished as a top five offense and defense; depending on the stats you look at they could be considered #2 for each. Peyton Manning had the highest Total QBR score by a large margin.

5. Falcons. 10-0 record outside the division is remarkable. Roddy White and Julio Jones constitute the strongest 1-2 receiving duo (2,549 yards), and them with Tony Gonzalez make up the strongest trio (3,479). Matt Ryan was a top five quarterback in passing yards, touchdowns, rating, completion percentage, and Total QBR. Sneaky MVP candidate? Atlanta ranked #29 in rushing (lowest among playoff teams), which has surprisingly been a good omen going to the Super Bowl (‘11 Giants, ‘10 Packers, ‘09 Colts, ’08 Cardinals). Their three losses came when they were 8-0, after they clinched the division, and after they clinched home field advantage. They would be ranked higher, but they did have the easiest schedule in the league.

Solid Playoff Teams

6. Texans. Hard to have a lot of confidence in the Texans when their four losses were all blowouts to other playoff teams, including three the last four weeks. Still, they are a well-balanced team, evident by their 11-1 start. Arian Foster led the league with 17 touchdowns, and Andre Johnson’s 1,598 receiving yards trailed only Megatron. J.J. Watts led the league with 20.5 sacks and batted or tipped 16 passes, including five for interceptions. He gets my vote for Defensive Player of the Year.

7. Packers. Aaron Rodgers finished with the highest passer rating (108.0) for the second season in a row. Then remember that Greg Jennings missed 8 games, Jordy Nelson missed 4, Cobb 1, and Jermichael Finley did very little. Alex Green (464) was the only Packer to gain over 300 yards rushing. A-Rod was sacked a league-most 51 times. And yet Green Bay came a biffed call (Seattle) away from 12-4. Charles Woodson will be back from his broken collarbone for the playoffs. The Packers’ first two opponents will be the Vikings and 49ers, and third could be the Seahawks, all of whom have beaten the Packers this season.

8. Redskins. Mike Shanahan famously announced during after the loss to the Panthers that the remainder of the season will be used to evaluate players. Then the Redskins won their last 7 games. Whatever he said worked. Robert Griffin III has been a little cautious lately but Alfred Morris has not, the 6th round pick rookie setting the franchise single-season rushing record and taking over when RG3 wasn’t at full strength. If RG3 is close to full strength, Washington has the toughest offense to play against.

9. Vikings. Adrian Peterson is the star of the show, but Christian Ponder came up big the last two weeks when it mattered most. Ponder had a roller-coaster season, starting on fire in the first three games, playing rather poorly for 10 of the next 11 games, and then playing brilliantly to close out the season. Peterson’s 27 rushes of 20 or more yards were 15 more than anyone else, and five more than anybody has had over the last ten seasons. As I noted in my recent article, the Vikings probably had the second-toughest schedule in the whole league (after the Lions), and still roared back from 3 wins to 10.

10. Bengals. Bet you didn’t know, the Bengals were one last-second 40-yard Cowboys field goal away from winning their last 8 games in a row (7 of 8 ain’t bad, either). Other than superstar receiver A.J. Green, the Bengals seem pretty average.

11. Colts. After being the worst team in the NFL the Colts benefited from the easiest schedule by winning 11 games. Indianapolis lost to the Bears, Jets, Patriots and Texans by a combined 93 points, and their other loss was one of two Jacksonville wins. According to ESPN Stats and Information, Andrew Luck had 18 interceptions (one less than the most) and seven potential interceptions dropped by defenders, most in the NFL. Of course, he threw the ball 627 times. Without looking it up, it’s probably safe to say that’s the most attempts ever for a rookie. He isn’t the only Colts rookie making an impact; T.Y. Hilton has become Luck’s big play target across from vet Reggie Wayne, and Vick Ballard picked up the ground game after Donald Brown went down. Speaking of Wayne, he caught 106 passes for 1,355 yards, the ninth straight season he has had at least 960 yards and seventh time he’s had at least 1,100 yards, so it’s not like the Colts have no veteran star power on offense.

12. Ravens. Yeah, they whupped the Giants, but the Ravens were a miracle 4th and 29 away from losing 5 of their last 6 games. Not the way to head into the playoffs. It felt like Joe Flacco regressed this year, but when you look at the numbers he stayed pretty consistent across the board for his career lines. Ray Rice had the lowest rushing and receiving stats since his rookie season in 2008, but at least he is “fresh” heading into the playoffs. The defense has been killed by injuries, but they weren’t known as a group of spring chickens to begin with.

Disappointed

13. Giants. How did they win last year? Eli Manning and a fierce pass rush. How did they lose this year? Eli Manning and a soft pass rush. The G-Men were the most up and down team in all the league; at times they were an unstoppable force on offense and defense, and other times they get blown out 31-13 to the Bengals and 34-0 to the Falcons. They beat down the Eagles this week 42-7, but who cares?

14. Bears. An aggressive and opportunistic defense the first half of the season covered a remarkably underachieving offense, despite some great players (Cutler, Marshall, Forte). Once the defensive touchdowns ended, so did the winning. Halfway through the season the Bears looked like a Super Bowl contender but a poor offensive line and no depth among the receivers was their demise. The defense had an amazing 44 takeaways in 16 games. How a team with +20 turnover differential misses the playoffs I don’t understand.

15. Cowboys. Tony Romo, what else is there to say? He is amazing one week and makes game-losing mistakes the next. (Has anyone chronicled the Romo gaffe games over the years?) But overall, he is the brightest star on the Cowboys, a team that was such a mess on defense and a disaster on the offensive line. Despite concern in the preseason because of a spleen injury, Jason Witten miraculously set the NFL-record for receptions in a single season by a tight end (110).

16. Steelers. Another team that looked like a Super Bowl favorite during the season, the Steelers were one of the most disappointing teams. They were doomed by a running back group that alternated fumbling the football with getting injured, and they not able to recover from Big Ben’s injury on November 12. He returned a month later on December 9, but he admitted he rushed back and was ineffective. It is interesting to see that Pittsburgh was the top ranked defense, despite being without Troy Polamalu for most of the season.

Next Year Cinderella?

17. Rams. They missed the playoffs, but it was still a pretty good year for the Rams, who improved from 2-14 to 7-8-1 under coach Jeff Fisher. St. Louis scored 100 more points and allowed 60 fewer than a year ago. After three seasons, I’m beginning to doubt whether former #1 pick (with a $78 million contract) Sam Bradford will ever be better than a below-average NFL starting quarterback. Draft a top tier wide receiver next year and we’ll find out. Running back Stephen Jackson has hinted he may retire, even after his eighth straight 1,000 yard season.

18. Panthers. For the second year in a row, Cam Newton’s stats showed he had a great year. Yet he tends to find ways to lose. Sounds like a poor man’s Tony Romo. In his two years the Panthers are 2-12 in games decided by 7 points or less. The Panthers managed to come back from a 2-8 record to finish a respectable 7-9. Linebacker Luke Kuechly became the first rookie since 2007 to lead the league in tackles, establishing himself as the Panthers’ defensive anchor for the future.

19. Saints. Drew Brees led the league in passing yards and touchdowns, but that’s where the good news ends for the Saints. The defense “secured” the worst season ever, allowing an incredible 7,042 yards (nearly 1,000 yards more than the 2012 second-worst Giants). Like Peyton Manning a year ago, coach Sean Payton established his value to the team by not being around, and cashed in mightily for it last week with a huge new contract.

20. Buccaneers. The season started so promising as the Bucs sat at 6-4 and playing tough hard every week for coach Greg Schiano. But like 2011, the team seemed to quit towards the end, including a 41-0 shutout in New Orleans to the above-named worst-defense-of-all-time. But the Bucs do have a solid nucleus in place on offense with QB Josh Freeman (franchise record 4,065 yard, 27 TDs), WR Vincent Jackson (1,384 yards) and rookie RB Doug Martin (1,454 yards, 11 TDs). The defense allowed the fewest yards rushing, but that was because they were ranked last in passing defense.

21. Dolphins. I admit the Fins were much better than I expected. Other than that I don’t know what to say.

Bottom Feeders

22. Chargers. San Diego may have some beautiful scenery, but they also have the most underachieving football team known to man. Chargers did not beat a team with a winning record (going 0-5). Losing Vincent Jackson was a bigger deal than expected, as Philip Rivers had his worst season since becoming a starter. The Chargers were one of three teams (Raiders, Cardinals) not to have anyone with 750 yards rushing or 850 yards receiving.

23. Browns. Like the Dolphins, I expected the Browns to be the worst team in the league and they were surprisingly competitive, winning five games. Brandon Weeden was probably the worst regular starting quarterback other than Mark Sanchez, but at least he gained some experience. I doubt he will still be under center in two years.

24. Titans. I’m still upset that the Titans ruined my Survival/Eliminator/Knockout
pools by losing to the pathetic Jaguars in Week 12. It was feast or famine for Chris Johnson, who had eight games (half) with less than 60 yards rushing and still managed to reach 1,243 yards. Titans defense gave up the most points (471). Despite having a really ugly season it was interesting at times for the Titans. Last week they had a player return two punts for touchdowns and another player return two interceptions for touchdowns, and in Week 3 against the Lions the Titans scored touchdowns on a pass, kickoff return, punt return, and fumble return, scoring a record five touchdowns of 60 yards or longer in one game.

25. Bills. Bills started the season getting crushed by the Jets and finished the season crushing the Jets. It was simply a bad season for Buffalo, a team I thought would be a pleasant surprise in a weak AFC.

26. Jets. One of the most dysfunctional seasons in sports history. Somehow Rex Ryan managed to save his job for another season despite mangling the quarterback situation all season from start to finish. I thought the circus ended two weeks ago, but then Greg McElroy got sacked 11 times and coughed up two turnovers to the Chargers, followed by another terrible Sanchez performance against the Bills to finally end the season. By the way, Tim Tebow is still a Jet.

27. Raiders. One of the league punching bags, nothing went right for the Raiders.

28. Cardinals. Kevin Kolb started 4-0 with 8 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions. After that, John Skelton, Ryan Lindley, and Brian Hoyer combined to throw 3 touchdowns and 18 interceptions Overall, Card QBs threw the most interceptions, got sacked the most, and had the lowest passer rating. You can’t help but feel sorry for Larry Fitzgerald. Arizona’s offense averaged only 15 points, 263 yards per game, converted the fewest first downs and the lowest third down percentage. They were also dead last in rushing. And the Cards still opened the season beating the Seahawks and Patriots.

29. Eagles. A terrible offensive line, 22 fumbles and practically every starter got hurt. Michael Vick and Nick Foles had practically identical numbers across the board. Bryce Brown (7th round pick) surprisingly outperformed LeSean McCoy after he took over. The front office threw in the towel on the defense early, firing DC Juan Castillo and cutting Jason Babin. Like the Arizona Cardinals, the Eagles finished the season 1-11. And this was supposed to be a “Dream Team,” “Dynasty”?

30. Lions. I’m still amazed that Jim Schwartz still has a job; he made so many terrible coaching moves that lost games. Matthew Stafford started every game and Calvin Johnson set the receiving record with 1,964 yards; that usually doesn’t happen with 4-12 teams. The team had the toughest schedule, yes, but the only game the Lions got blown out was Week 15 to the terrible Cardinals.

31. Chiefs. KC only had two wins and the worst point differential (-214), but they have the #1 draft pick and could be just a real quarterback (and head coach) away from being pretty competitive. Chiefs had 37 turnovers and just 13 takeaways, and scored just 211 points (13.2/game).

32. Jaguars. Time to hit the reset button. MJD will be back next year, and Cecil Shorts and Justin Blackmon showed that they can be productive wide receivers. Chad Henne showed promise with two strong games midseason against the Texans and Titans but was terrible other than that. He and Blaine Gabbert showed they are not the answer in Jacksonville.

debunking the Strength of Schedule debate

In college football, there seems to be three main criterion for rankings: 40% record, 20% game performance (style points), 40% strength of schedule. Obviously, to be considered for the national championship you have to have very few (if any) losses, you have to look good in your games (especially against the bad teams), and you better play some tough opponents.

In the NFL there are just two factors: wins in the regular season, and wins in the playoffs.

But in our time of 24/7 sports TV and radio and internet access, there is a lot of debate about rankings and strength of schedule and who “earned” their playoff berth versus who “walked into it” in the NFL. What’s better, a 13-3 team who played a cupcake schedule, or a 9-7 team that scraped and clawed their way into the playoffs? (Ironically, 2011 Patriots and Giants?)

The conclusion of the season provides an opportune time to undertake solving this NFL “strength of schedule” issue once and for all--albeit in retrospect, but also looking ahead to the postseason.

The one formula that people seem to lean on most (because it's the easiest to find) to determine strength of schedule (hereafter SOS) is the record of a team’s opponents from the previous year. Here is a link that displays that information.

For the whole league, Giants and Broncos had the hardest schedule, Patriots and Packers had the easiest. It is no wonder that the Patriots and Packers were the overwhelming preseason picks for this year’s Super Bowl. That is a useful reference in July and August, but is rather out of date at this point.

Here are the points that I analyzed:

- Team’s opponent’s record at the time of each game (Gameday). (In Week 3 the Redskins played the 1-1 Bengals and Week 10 played the 3-6 Eagles.) This roughly shows how well a teams’ opponents were playing at the time of the matchup.

- Final composite record of all scheduled opponents (Final record). (In Week 3 the Redskins played the 10-6 Bengals and Week 10 played the 4-12 Eagles.)

- Final composite record of all scheduled opponents in other games (Other games). (Redskins played the 10-6 Bengals, minus the game against the Redskins = 9-6; and the 4-12 Eagles, minus the games against the Redskins = 4-10.) This may be the best overall indicator.

- Number of games against opponents that won six or fewer games (Easy games). (Most teams played about five.) Is there a big difference between playing the Bills and the Jaguars? The composite record/”SOS” difference is huge (4 games), but in reality, it’s basically an equally easy matchup. Sure, no NFL coach will admit that any game is “easy”, but a team with a high number of games against bad teams had a cushy schedule.

- Number of games against opponents that finished above .500 (.500+). These are the real meaningful games. I also included record in those games, which is an indication of performance more than just SOS, but it is interesting.

- I also include projected SOS based on opponents’ 2011 record (Last SOS) for a reference, not included in the overall analysis.

I analyzed the 14 teams that finished with a winning record (9-7 or better): the twelve playoff teams plus Giants and Bears. I then ranked the 14 teams based on their SOS. I also included a random team, the Lions, just for fun.

(click on this picture or open in a new tab/window to see it full size)

Notes/Observations

- Due to the 49ers/Rams tie, as well as bye weeks happening at different times, the numbers aren’t equal across the board. It’s okay.

- The Vikings’ turnaround into a playoff team and Adrian Peterson’s breakout are even more remarkable when you consider that this 3-13 team a year ago drove the toughest road throughout the season of any team to get in, including 9 games against great teams. They played their opponents at their strongest times, a combined 71-46 (nobody they played had more than 6 losses on that day).

- Falcons won the #1 seed in the NFC thanks to the league’s easiest schedule. They only played three teams that finished with a winning record. However, they won all three of those games (Broncos, Redskins, and Giants). So maybe they did earn it after all…

- This really shows how dominant the Seahawks were against the league’s elite. They went 5-1 against their best opponents, and that one loss was avenged against the 49ers on Sunday Night in Week 16.

- Texans played an SEC-style schedule, full of either very strong opponents or very weak ones.

- Andrew Luck and the Colts took advantage of a league-most 9 easy games against the Jaguars, Titans, Jets, Bills, Browns, Lions and Chiefs. They also had an early bye week and the numbers say they tended to play their opponents’ before their byes (showed by the high 124 games opponents had played previous to their meeting; most teams had about 119). It shouldn’t be hard to believe that they made the playoffs.

- Coming into the season the Packers were supposed to have one of the easiest paths but they ended up with one of the toughest. They can thank the Vikings, Colts and Seahawks for that.

- Patriots schedule ended up a lot tougher than people can them credit for. They had a high number of easy games but their opponents lost 12 games fewer than last year.

- On the flip side, Peyton Manning and the Broncos benefited from a schedule much easier than projected. Their opponents won an astonishing 22 fewer games than in 2011. Denver also met them at their weakest time, when they had a combined 38% winning percentage.

- Those poor Giants and Redskins only had three easy games, and two of those were against the Eagles. However, the rest of New York’s schedule was much tougher than Washington’s.

- Jim Schwartz and the Lions had an uphill battle all season with easily the toughest schedule, including 11 of their 16 games against strong opponents. They only won one of those, and Schwartz made lots of bad coaching decisions, but I suppose their tough schedule is an excuse for the poor performance this season and why he hasn’t been fired.