NFL Power Report, end of season

After 17 weeks and 256 games the regular season is over. Here is Miller's Power Report.

Super Bowl Contenders

1. Patriots. Of their four losses, three were by a combined four points and in the other game against the 49ers they roared back from 28 points down and finished an onside kick away. Everyone knows they have the best offense in the league, and the Dolphins and Texans will tell you the defense can be surprisingly great at times, too. Rob Gronkowski is back for the playoffs. Patriots finished the season 11-1 against the AFC, and had the largest point differential and turnover differential in the league.

2. Seahawks. They finished the season on fire and look like they could be the best team in the league. The ‘Hawks scored 150 points in three games late in the season and also finished as the stingiest defense (just 15 points/game). So how did this team that beat the Patriots, Packers and 49ers lose to the Lions, Cardinals, Rams and Dolphins? Seattle was unstoppable at home; to succeed in the playoffs they will have to do it all on the road.

3. 49ers. The Niners can beat anybody. He’s not elite yet, but I really like Colin Kaepernick. Just don’t let the outcome of a game come down to the kicker. Getting a week off to rest makes the 49ers defense the best in the playoffs.

4. Broncos. Won their last 11 games and finished with a 6-game cushion in the division, much better than last year’s three-way tie. Broncos finished as a top five offense and defense; depending on the stats you look at they could be considered #2 for each. Peyton Manning had the highest Total QBR score by a large margin.

5. Falcons. 10-0 record outside the division is remarkable. Roddy White and Julio Jones constitute the strongest 1-2 receiving duo (2,549 yards), and them with Tony Gonzalez make up the strongest trio (3,479). Matt Ryan was a top five quarterback in passing yards, touchdowns, rating, completion percentage, and Total QBR. Sneaky MVP candidate? Atlanta ranked #29 in rushing (lowest among playoff teams), which has surprisingly been a good omen going to the Super Bowl (‘11 Giants, ‘10 Packers, ‘09 Colts, ’08 Cardinals). Their three losses came when they were 8-0, after they clinched the division, and after they clinched home field advantage. They would be ranked higher, but they did have the easiest schedule in the league.

Solid Playoff Teams

6. Texans. Hard to have a lot of confidence in the Texans when their four losses were all blowouts to other playoff teams, including three the last four weeks. Still, they are a well-balanced team, evident by their 11-1 start. Arian Foster led the league with 17 touchdowns, and Andre Johnson’s 1,598 receiving yards trailed only Megatron. J.J. Watts led the league with 20.5 sacks and batted or tipped 16 passes, including five for interceptions. He gets my vote for Defensive Player of the Year.

7. Packers. Aaron Rodgers finished with the highest passer rating (108.0) for the second season in a row. Then remember that Greg Jennings missed 8 games, Jordy Nelson missed 4, Cobb 1, and Jermichael Finley did very little. Alex Green (464) was the only Packer to gain over 300 yards rushing. A-Rod was sacked a league-most 51 times. And yet Green Bay came a biffed call (Seattle) away from 12-4. Charles Woodson will be back from his broken collarbone for the playoffs. The Packers’ first two opponents will be the Vikings and 49ers, and third could be the Seahawks, all of whom have beaten the Packers this season.

8. Redskins. Mike Shanahan famously announced during after the loss to the Panthers that the remainder of the season will be used to evaluate players. Then the Redskins won their last 7 games. Whatever he said worked. Robert Griffin III has been a little cautious lately but Alfred Morris has not, the 6th round pick rookie setting the franchise single-season rushing record and taking over when RG3 wasn’t at full strength. If RG3 is close to full strength, Washington has the toughest offense to play against.

9. Vikings. Adrian Peterson is the star of the show, but Christian Ponder came up big the last two weeks when it mattered most. Ponder had a roller-coaster season, starting on fire in the first three games, playing rather poorly for 10 of the next 11 games, and then playing brilliantly to close out the season. Peterson’s 27 rushes of 20 or more yards were 15 more than anyone else, and five more than anybody has had over the last ten seasons. As I noted in my recent article, the Vikings probably had the second-toughest schedule in the whole league (after the Lions), and still roared back from 3 wins to 10.

10. Bengals. Bet you didn’t know, the Bengals were one last-second 40-yard Cowboys field goal away from winning their last 8 games in a row (7 of 8 ain’t bad, either). Other than superstar receiver A.J. Green, the Bengals seem pretty average.

11. Colts. After being the worst team in the NFL the Colts benefited from the easiest schedule by winning 11 games. Indianapolis lost to the Bears, Jets, Patriots and Texans by a combined 93 points, and their other loss was one of two Jacksonville wins. According to ESPN Stats and Information, Andrew Luck had 18 interceptions (one less than the most) and seven potential interceptions dropped by defenders, most in the NFL. Of course, he threw the ball 627 times. Without looking it up, it’s probably safe to say that’s the most attempts ever for a rookie. He isn’t the only Colts rookie making an impact; T.Y. Hilton has become Luck’s big play target across from vet Reggie Wayne, and Vick Ballard picked up the ground game after Donald Brown went down. Speaking of Wayne, he caught 106 passes for 1,355 yards, the ninth straight season he has had at least 960 yards and seventh time he’s had at least 1,100 yards, so it’s not like the Colts have no veteran star power on offense.

12. Ravens. Yeah, they whupped the Giants, but the Ravens were a miracle 4th and 29 away from losing 5 of their last 6 games. Not the way to head into the playoffs. It felt like Joe Flacco regressed this year, but when you look at the numbers he stayed pretty consistent across the board for his career lines. Ray Rice had the lowest rushing and receiving stats since his rookie season in 2008, but at least he is “fresh” heading into the playoffs. The defense has been killed by injuries, but they weren’t known as a group of spring chickens to begin with.

Disappointed

13. Giants. How did they win last year? Eli Manning and a fierce pass rush. How did they lose this year? Eli Manning and a soft pass rush. The G-Men were the most up and down team in all the league; at times they were an unstoppable force on offense and defense, and other times they get blown out 31-13 to the Bengals and 34-0 to the Falcons. They beat down the Eagles this week 42-7, but who cares?

14. Bears. An aggressive and opportunistic defense the first half of the season covered a remarkably underachieving offense, despite some great players (Cutler, Marshall, Forte). Once the defensive touchdowns ended, so did the winning. Halfway through the season the Bears looked like a Super Bowl contender but a poor offensive line and no depth among the receivers was their demise. The defense had an amazing 44 takeaways in 16 games. How a team with +20 turnover differential misses the playoffs I don’t understand.

15. Cowboys. Tony Romo, what else is there to say? He is amazing one week and makes game-losing mistakes the next. (Has anyone chronicled the Romo gaffe games over the years?) But overall, he is the brightest star on the Cowboys, a team that was such a mess on defense and a disaster on the offensive line. Despite concern in the preseason because of a spleen injury, Jason Witten miraculously set the NFL-record for receptions in a single season by a tight end (110).

16. Steelers. Another team that looked like a Super Bowl favorite during the season, the Steelers were one of the most disappointing teams. They were doomed by a running back group that alternated fumbling the football with getting injured, and they not able to recover from Big Ben’s injury on November 12. He returned a month later on December 9, but he admitted he rushed back and was ineffective. It is interesting to see that Pittsburgh was the top ranked defense, despite being without Troy Polamalu for most of the season.

Next Year Cinderella?

17. Rams. They missed the playoffs, but it was still a pretty good year for the Rams, who improved from 2-14 to 7-8-1 under coach Jeff Fisher. St. Louis scored 100 more points and allowed 60 fewer than a year ago. After three seasons, I’m beginning to doubt whether former #1 pick (with a $78 million contract) Sam Bradford will ever be better than a below-average NFL starting quarterback. Draft a top tier wide receiver next year and we’ll find out. Running back Stephen Jackson has hinted he may retire, even after his eighth straight 1,000 yard season.

18. Panthers. For the second year in a row, Cam Newton’s stats showed he had a great year. Yet he tends to find ways to lose. Sounds like a poor man’s Tony Romo. In his two years the Panthers are 2-12 in games decided by 7 points or less. The Panthers managed to come back from a 2-8 record to finish a respectable 7-9. Linebacker Luke Kuechly became the first rookie since 2007 to lead the league in tackles, establishing himself as the Panthers’ defensive anchor for the future.

19. Saints. Drew Brees led the league in passing yards and touchdowns, but that’s where the good news ends for the Saints. The defense “secured” the worst season ever, allowing an incredible 7,042 yards (nearly 1,000 yards more than the 2012 second-worst Giants). Like Peyton Manning a year ago, coach Sean Payton established his value to the team by not being around, and cashed in mightily for it last week with a huge new contract.

20. Buccaneers. The season started so promising as the Bucs sat at 6-4 and playing tough hard every week for coach Greg Schiano. But like 2011, the team seemed to quit towards the end, including a 41-0 shutout in New Orleans to the above-named worst-defense-of-all-time. But the Bucs do have a solid nucleus in place on offense with QB Josh Freeman (franchise record 4,065 yard, 27 TDs), WR Vincent Jackson (1,384 yards) and rookie RB Doug Martin (1,454 yards, 11 TDs). The defense allowed the fewest yards rushing, but that was because they were ranked last in passing defense.

21. Dolphins. I admit the Fins were much better than I expected. Other than that I don’t know what to say.

Bottom Feeders

22. Chargers. San Diego may have some beautiful scenery, but they also have the most underachieving football team known to man. Chargers did not beat a team with a winning record (going 0-5). Losing Vincent Jackson was a bigger deal than expected, as Philip Rivers had his worst season since becoming a starter. The Chargers were one of three teams (Raiders, Cardinals) not to have anyone with 750 yards rushing or 850 yards receiving.

23. Browns. Like the Dolphins, I expected the Browns to be the worst team in the league and they were surprisingly competitive, winning five games. Brandon Weeden was probably the worst regular starting quarterback other than Mark Sanchez, but at least he gained some experience. I doubt he will still be under center in two years.

24. Titans. I’m still upset that the Titans ruined my Survival/Eliminator/Knockout
pools by losing to the pathetic Jaguars in Week 12. It was feast or famine for Chris Johnson, who had eight games (half) with less than 60 yards rushing and still managed to reach 1,243 yards. Titans defense gave up the most points (471). Despite having a really ugly season it was interesting at times for the Titans. Last week they had a player return two punts for touchdowns and another player return two interceptions for touchdowns, and in Week 3 against the Lions the Titans scored touchdowns on a pass, kickoff return, punt return, and fumble return, scoring a record five touchdowns of 60 yards or longer in one game.

25. Bills. Bills started the season getting crushed by the Jets and finished the season crushing the Jets. It was simply a bad season for Buffalo, a team I thought would be a pleasant surprise in a weak AFC.

26. Jets. One of the most dysfunctional seasons in sports history. Somehow Rex Ryan managed to save his job for another season despite mangling the quarterback situation all season from start to finish. I thought the circus ended two weeks ago, but then Greg McElroy got sacked 11 times and coughed up two turnovers to the Chargers, followed by another terrible Sanchez performance against the Bills to finally end the season. By the way, Tim Tebow is still a Jet.

27. Raiders. One of the league punching bags, nothing went right for the Raiders.

28. Cardinals. Kevin Kolb started 4-0 with 8 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions. After that, John Skelton, Ryan Lindley, and Brian Hoyer combined to throw 3 touchdowns and 18 interceptions Overall, Card QBs threw the most interceptions, got sacked the most, and had the lowest passer rating. You can’t help but feel sorry for Larry Fitzgerald. Arizona’s offense averaged only 15 points, 263 yards per game, converted the fewest first downs and the lowest third down percentage. They were also dead last in rushing. And the Cards still opened the season beating the Seahawks and Patriots.

29. Eagles. A terrible offensive line, 22 fumbles and practically every starter got hurt. Michael Vick and Nick Foles had practically identical numbers across the board. Bryce Brown (7th round pick) surprisingly outperformed LeSean McCoy after he took over. The front office threw in the towel on the defense early, firing DC Juan Castillo and cutting Jason Babin. Like the Arizona Cardinals, the Eagles finished the season 1-11. And this was supposed to be a “Dream Team,” “Dynasty”?

30. Lions. I’m still amazed that Jim Schwartz still has a job; he made so many terrible coaching moves that lost games. Matthew Stafford started every game and Calvin Johnson set the receiving record with 1,964 yards; that usually doesn’t happen with 4-12 teams. The team had the toughest schedule, yes, but the only game the Lions got blown out was Week 15 to the terrible Cardinals.

31. Chiefs. KC only had two wins and the worst point differential (-214), but they have the #1 draft pick and could be just a real quarterback (and head coach) away from being pretty competitive. Chiefs had 37 turnovers and just 13 takeaways, and scored just 211 points (13.2/game).

32. Jaguars. Time to hit the reset button. MJD will be back next year, and Cecil Shorts and Justin Blackmon showed that they can be productive wide receivers. Chad Henne showed promise with two strong games midseason against the Texans and Titans but was terrible other than that. He and Blaine Gabbert showed they are not the answer in Jacksonville.