Friday, January 11, 2013

Divisional Round Preview and Predictions


- Ravens vs. Broncos
A rematch of the Week 15 game where the Broncos beat the Ravens by 17 in Baltimore. Now they're in Denver. Peyton Manning has won 9 straight games against the Ravens, and most of those were when Baltimore had a good defense. Denver has had an extra week to rest and prepare. Broncos have won 11 in a row overall. Sometimes in the second round, the team that played the week before has built some momentum coming in (2012 Giants, 2011 Packers), but that is not true with the Ravens, who stymied the rookie Andrew Luck but have not been playing great football as of late. Ravens have Ray Lewis this time around, who certainly gives them a boost emotionally, and Joe Flacco is playing in his 9th road game so there is plenty of experience on the Ravens in this situation. But a lot of balls will have to roll their way to win. Denver has the edge in nearly every single position. Broncos 25, Ravens 14

- Packers vs. 49ers
A rematch of the Week 1 game where the 49ers took it to the Packers at Lambeau Field. Aaron Rodgers has been on a roll, throwing 11 touchdowns, zero interceptions in his last 5 games. The defense stepped up last week in their blowout win over the Vikings, but at home against Joe Webb how much can you take from it? Aaron Rodgers is the best player on the field but San Francisco has a very strong all-around team. Their d-line will dominate the GB o-line, putting pressure on Rodgers all day and keeping the weak Packer rushing attack at bay. Colin Kaepernick may be a first-year starter but he can make big plays with his arm or legs. Following a week of rest, Frank Gore will have a big day against a generous defense (125+ yards rushing) and the 49ers will have at least 2 rushing touchdowns. Fun fact: Aaron Rodgers grew up in northern California as a 49ers fan and Colin Kaepernick grew up in Wisconsin rooting for the Packers. 49ers 33, Packers 27

- Seahawks vs. Falcons
The only non-rematch of the weekend's games. Seattle is on fire, winning six straight games, including one on the road in Washington a week ago. Falcons are 33-6 with Matt Ryan at home. One reason the Seahawks have been so successful this year is because they have the league's best cornerback set and a good pass rush, too. But this game they will be without leading sacker, Chris Clemons, giving Matt Ryan a little more time to hit Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez. I love Russell Wilson and this Seahawks team; I think they are the best team in the NFC. But being led by a rookie quarterback across country for the second week in a row against a veteran team that has been waiting, a team solid from top to bottom, I give the Falcons the edge. Falcons 22, Seahawks 20

- Texans vs. Patriots
The third rematch of the weekend. In Week 14, the Patriots demolished the Texans at Foxborough, leading 42-7 halfway through the fourth quarter (42-14 the final). And that was without Gronkowski. The Texans have a very complete team (star power with Foster, Andre Johnson and Watt) but look at the coaching matchup: Bill Bellichek and Tom Brady against Gary Kubiak and Matt Schaub. The Texans' two worst games of the season were against elite quarterbacks with deep receiving corps (Packers and Patriots); this game won't be much different. By the way, from what I can tell from the forecast, it should be 50 degrees at the stadium. Patriots 38, Texans 21

Looking ahead...

Falcons over 49ers 24-20
Patriots over Broncos 23-17

Super Bowl
Patriots over Falcons 38-21

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