number crunching: outrage and outcry

There is no science to the All Star Game participant selection. There is certainly no logic. Fans vote online and stuff the ballot box at the ballpark for their favorite players as the starters. Players vote for pitchers and back-up players. And the All Star team manager selects the rest of the team. Then than there’s five candidates for the last spot that fans again vote for.

Theoretically, the players having the best year should fill the roster. You hope that fans recognize that. And if not, at least the players or eventually the manager ought to get it right. Yet year after year, right about this time, controversy swirls. Who got snubbed, who shouldn’t be in, that’s the headline in the news for a week. Writers and media personalities scream at the injustice.

Of course, a week later, several selected players pull out for various reasons and all is made right as their replacements have been the target of rants and outrage for several days. But that reality is delayed long enough for writers like myself to grouse.

The first silliness to rear its head is the selection OF the manager. Tony La Russa, who isn’t even a manager anymore, is the manager for the NL team. That is rather absurd. It is not a surprise, but it’s absurd, and a silly practice that needs to change. If the World Series manager retires, have somebody else who is still in the game head the team. The game means nothing to him. And then you get stuff like this from other managers and this too. Ron Roenicke is probably just bitter that he’s not coaching the team, but stick the Brewers manager in there as a replacement and let him pick the team since the game has relevance to his team in the long run.

Onto the players.

The primary cause of “outrage” is at third base for the NL, where San Francisco fans went bonkers. Here’s Exhibit 1:

Player (A): 98 hits, .354 AVG, .447 OBP, .560 SLG, 9 HR, 26 doubles, 50 RBI, 53 runs, 8 SB
Player (B): 51 hits, .300 AVG, .362 OBP, .471 SLG, 6 HR, 11 doubles, 25 RBI, 26 runs, 0 SB

As you can see, these numbers aren’t even close. A is Mets David Wright, B is Giants Kung Fu Panda Pablo Sandoval, who surged ahead in the fan voting last week to grab the starting spot. I searched about every stat and I couldn’t find one where Sandoval was superior than Wright, who is a legitimate MVP candidate at this point. And what about David Freese, the MVP of both the NLCS and the World Series last year? Isn’t that worth anything? He has also had a great season so far and should be in instead of Sandoval.

Exhibit 2:
This year Player C is third in home runs but is batting a paltry .210 and leads the galaxy in strikeouts (126 in 79 games). He whiffs in 45 percent of his at bats. Last year this player had the worst hitting season in baseball history. That is hardly a resume for an All Star. Yet Adam Dunn got the call. Why Ron Washington picked three DH for his team I don’t understand. How the worst hitter in the league gets named an All Star I’ll never know. Chicks dig the long ball, maybe he does, too.

Exhibit 3:
Player D is a career minor leaguer. He got off to a hot start but petered off to mediocrity with a zillion strikeouts. The first baseman is on pace to hit 26 home runs and 56 RBI and will probably finish around .260. Whoop-dee-do. He also plays for the worst team in baseball, who already have a team representative (more deserving, too) for the game. This is Bryan LaHair for the Cubs. Good for him, but what a joke. Why not pick rising star Paul Goldschmidt, who has a higher batting average, slugging percentage, RBI, doubles, and stolen bases, and is one of the NL’s hottest hitters right now?

Exhibit 4: more player comparisons.

E: .356 avg, 11 HR, 19 doubles, 43 RBI, 38 runs, 1.000 OPS, 3 SB
F: .309 avg, 13 HR, 15 doubles, 45 RBI, 35 runs, .874 OPS, 7 SB
G: .303 avg, 10 HR, 15 double,s 42 RBI, 32 runs, .851 OPS, 1 SB

Especially for a catcher those numbers are impressive, even for the bottom guy. But look, there is clearly a hierarchy here. E is clearly having the best year. F is going to his 4th straight midsummer classic with good numbers and has a reputation as one of the best defensive catchers. G was rookie of the year in 2010 but hardly played due to injury last year.
G is Buster Posey, another victory for the fans in San Francisco, who beat out Carlos Ruiz (E) and Yadier Molina (F). I selected Buster as a backup, but Ruiz is clearly more deserving to start.

Exhibit 5:

H: .285 avg, 14 HR, 45 RBI, 36 runs, 32 strikeouts
I: .247 avg, 11 HR, 38 RBI, 34 runs, 50 strikeouts
J: .235 avg, 12 HR, 30 RBI, 36 runs, 82 strikeouts

This is a real head-scratcher. J is starting, I was chosen, and H is staying home. What?? H is A.J. Pierzynski, I is Matt Wieters, and J is Mike Napoli. Instead of Napoli and Weiters, use Pierzynksi and 3B Edwin Encarnacion, who really should be playing (.292, 22 HR, 55 RBI, 50 runs, 8 SB).

Exhibit 6: relief pitchers:

K: 24 innings, 42 strikeouts, 0.00 ERA, .092 avg against, 10 saves, 0 blown saves
L: 35 innings, 37 strikeouts, 1.54 ERA, .106 avg against, 7 saves, 3 blown saves

Ernesto Frieri is K, Sam Cook is L. Guess who made the team. My first question is who is Sam Cook and who wants to see him pitch in an All Star game? At least Frieri is a strikeout machine (leads the league in strikeout rate). That’s what you need coming out of the bullpen in this big game. Cook is the sole A’s rep, but it would have been easy to pick outfielder Josh Reddick and Frieri rather than Adam Dunn and Cook.

Exhibit 7: starting pitchers

M: 10-4, 2.85 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, .229 avg against
N: 8-3, 2.45 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, .197 avg against
O: 9-4, 2.26 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, .246 avg against
P: 9-2, 3.08 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, .251 avg against
Q: 8-2, 2.80 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, .249 avg against
R: 10-4, 3.62 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, .239 avg against

There is room for one player. Or use Padre Chase Headley instead of Huston Street and you can use two of these.
M: Bumgarner N: McDonald, O: Cueto, P: Greinke, Q: Lohse, R: Lynn.
This is where the Tony La Russa selection makes you wonder. M is Bumgarner from the Giants, already well represented. The rest all play in the NL Central, La Russa’s old division. James McDonald and Cueto have the best numbers and have really lifted their teams to the top of the division. Cardinal Lance Lynn (R) was selected, despite having lesser numbers across the board. 10 wins, but that’s because of run support, which he has no control over. Should have been McDonald and/or Cueto.