the Move the Mets should Make this Month

The first half was more than any Mets fan could hope for. They had a miracle run by the 37 year old wonder R.A. Dickey. Santana came back from surgery to pitch the franchise's first no hitter, and he's been very good. David Wright hung around .400 for a while, and is still hitting over .350. And then there were all the babies from the Mets' farm system that surprised everyone with their grit and production. Terry Collins has the team playing hard and staying competitive. The team was a regular resident of 2nd place in the NL East.

I know fans want to be optimistic and want to make moves to keep the team going. The NL isn't real strong this year, and this may be their chance to grab a Wild Card and appear in the playoffs for the second time since 2000. Fans want them to break open the bank and trade whatever they can for a reliever and righty bat off the bench.

I'm not afraid to say I was wrong about this team when I said they would win only 63 games. But let's be realistic: the ceiling for this team is about 86 games. They had a nice start last year, too, and that was with Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes on the team. Like we saw at the end of the first half against the terrible Cubs, the Mets aren't that good and have been over-performing. Dillon Gee is out for the year, leaving a hole in the rotation. Dickey likely won't go 9-1 the rest of the way. They have already dropped out of the Wild Card lead and now either trail or are tied with Atlanta, Cincinnati, San Francisco, and St Louis, all who are better. By the end of the month (the trade deadline), they will be 3-5 games back and unlikely to squeak it out. Is it really worth fighting and trading away some of their young talent for this year, even if they managed to clinch that second Wild Card?

The Mets do have a great young nucleus intact. Their young guys are all getting good experience that will really help in the long run. They have some great pitching prospects in the minors. Young flamethrower Bobby Parnell could be your closer. Ike Davis will be better next year. They have David Wright in a Met uniform for a while. Instead of being buyers, fighting for mediocrity, the Mets could be brushing up for 2013 and 2014 and beyond.

Proposition: trade Johan Santana.

Santana's stock won't get any higher. He's had a great first half, including a no-hitter. He's under contract for next year, so a team would be getting him for 1 1/2 seasons, which is much more appealing. He is the Mets' highest paid player, will be in high demand, and is probably their best bargaining chip. He is also 33 and coming off a significant injury. The Mets are still trying to shed salary and this would really contribute. They could likely get a good young bat and a couple great prospects for him.

Like with Beltran last year, trading Johan would signify to the fans that the ownership is conceding this season with hope for the future, which would upset fans. This move also brings back the memory of Tom Seaver, probably the greatest Met ever, who was traded after 10 All Star and 3 Cy Young seasons with the Mets (the move resulting in the Mets going to the division's cellar the next 3 seasons).

But there are some compelling reasons. This team is destined for mediocrity for the 6th straight season. The Phillies have dominated the division lately but they have run out of gas and will probably be down for a couple years. The current team in Queens has a great nucleus of young talent getting experience with more in the minors getting ready. This is an opportunity to solidify the Mets as a strength in the National League for the next ten years. And I'm not confident that Johan Santana will be as effective the rest of this year or next as he's been. And the way the league is looking, great veteran left-handed starting pitchers will attract some very good offers from some desperate teams.

Johan is a hero in New York. It would not be a popular move among the locals, but the best move in the long run for the New York Mets would be to trade Johan Santana and prepare for a strong 2013 and beyond. If not, they will be treading water again next year.