Youth and pitching seem to be synonymous with the Rays of the last ten years. Every year they bring up a young guy late in the season who becomes a huge part of their rotation the following year; Scott Kazmir 04-05, James Shields (straight into) 06, David Price and Jeff Niemann 08-09, Wade Davis 09-10, Jeremy Hellickson 10-11, Alex Cobb and Matt Moore 11-12. Chris Archer is the next candidate for 12-13. They traded James Shields, one of their top two arms, along with potential starter Wade Davis for hitting and pitching prospects so that leaves some openings now. With a lineup that projects to score less and a division that looks stronger, the pitching will have to be as good as ever for them to contend in the AL East. They led major league baseball (including everyone in the National League) in team ERA with a bunch of kids you probably didn’t even know, yet still fell short of the playoffs last season.
Starting Rotation
Ace: David Price (A)
2. Matt Moore (B+)
3. Jeremy Hellickson (B+)
4. Alex Cobb (B-)
5. Jeff Niemann (C-)
In the mix: Roberto Hernandez (the artist formerly known as Fausto Carmona), Chris Archer
Down the road: Jake Odorizzi
Yes, you’ve heard of him. David Price is the best pitcher in the division, period. The former first overall pick won at least 19 for the second time in three years and with 20 earned the Cy Young award in the American League. The even-more-amazing thing about that 20 win season is that he had the lowest run support of any pitcher in the league. His career ERA is 3.16, which is even more remarkable when you consider he has pitched all four years in the unfriendly AL East. The guy is a stud and there isn’t much else to say.
Not all their great young pitchers have to be first overall selections; Jeremy Hellickson (2011 Rookie of the Year) was found in the fourth round, as was Alex Cobb, and Matt Moore was an eighth round selection. 64 starts into his career Hellickson actually has a lower ERA than Price, at 3.06, with 60 fewer hits allowed than innings pitched; remarkable for a 25 year old kid. Like Price he didn’t get any run support, resulting in a disappointing 10-11 record. Unlike Price he isn’t much of a strikeout machine, and he gives up a lot of walks. But like Greg Maddux and Mark Buehrle, as a contact pitcher he’s his own best friend, winning the Gold Glove in 2012. Sabermetric stat believers are somewhat skeptical as it seems he has been lucky; he has been among the league leaders in stranding runners two years in a row.
Maybe I’m just bitter because Matt Moore was a major disappointment on my fantasy team the first half of the season (just five wins at the break, 4.42 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) but he did turn things around in the second half. He’s just 23 and has potential to be a big strikeout pitcher (led the AL East in strikeouts per nine innings ratio) and possibly break out into the upper echelon of young pitchers. But I want to see it first.
Okay, that’s kind of the problem evaluating this Rays’ staff. Everybody is young. There’s a good chance we could have a rotation with four guys under age 26 in Moore, Hellickson, Cobb, and Archer, with the grandfatherly Price (just 27) rounding it out. The biggest thing going for them is the team reputation as we haven’t seen very much of the group. It seems any one of them could bust out with ace potential but it’s hard to tell at this point. And there is more on the way; Jake Odorizzi will likely be that late-2013-14 impact pitcher for Tampa.
There are some veterans on the team pulling for spots. Jeff Niemann (turning 30 this month) has been around a while, although nothing more than an average #5 starter. He’s coming off an injury plagued season where he suffered a broken leg and sore shoulder and made just eight starts. Roberto Hernandez (Fausto Carmona) had that brilliant sophomore season going 19-8 for the Indians in 2007 but has been nothing better than terrible since then. Now age 32 he’s got a shot but doesn’t seem to fit in with the Rays Way.
There seems to never be a shortage of great young arms in Tampa recently. But coming into a season where they just lost their workhorse (James Shields, leader in innings pitched and strikeouts the last two seasons) the young guys don’t have time to be prospects with potential; they have to be impact players now.
Overall Grade: B+
Pitching Depth: B
Biggest Strength: David Price; a bunch of great young pitchers bursting with potential
Biggest Concern: Youth; back of rotation
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment