I am amazed at how significantly the power has shifted from the AFC to the NFC. Not only that, the gap between the top of the AFC and the other teams has widened significantly. Think of the worst (expected) teams in the NFL: Raiders, Jaguars, Titans, Bills, Jets. (And that's not even including the Chargers, Chiefs, Browns, or Dolphins). What do they all have in common? All in the AFC! Meanwhile, the bottom teams in the NFC (Lions, Eagles, Cardinals) should all be much better off this year.
East
As much as the Patriots have lost, they still have Brady and Belichick and that is a lot more than anybody else. Who's the second best QB in the division, Tannehill? The Dolphins are a trendy surprise team but I'm just not seeing it; even if Tannehill improves they are lifeless on offense. Miami has a tough first five weeks with home games against the Falcons and Ravens and road trips to Cleveland, Indianapolis and New Orleans; 1-4 heading into the bye is a distinct possibility (with back-to-back against Patriots and Bengals in October) and that would suck the life out of the team. I would feel much better about the Bills if rookie EJ Manuel got some experience in the preseason and was healthy heading into opening kickoff rather than giving way to an undrafted rookie. Patriots are a mile ahead of everybody else in the division.
Patriots
+ Brady & Belichick, very strong running game, improved defense, no games out West!
- changes among receivers, health of Gronkowski
Tough games: @Falcons, Broncos, @Texans, @Ravens
Prediction: 11-5
Dolphins
+ Tannehill could make big step, defense is a strong unit
- offense is weak an unimpressive, tough early schedule
Winnable games: @Browns, Bills, Chargers, Panthers, @Jets, @Steelers, @Bills, Jets
Prediction: 7-9
Bills
+ CJ Spiller is most explosive and exciting player in the division
- inexperienced quarterbacks (to put it nicely) with poor receivers; weak secondary
Winnable games: Panthers, @Jets, @Browns, @Dolphins, Chiefs, Jets, @Jags, Dolphins
Prediction: 6-10
Jets
+ Rex Ryan defense typically strong, Chris Ivory could improve ground game
- questionable quarterbacks with poor receivers; pass rush, secondary; combustible
Winnable games: Bucs, Bills, @Titans, Steelers, @Bills, Dolphins, Raiders, Browns, @Dolphins
Prediction: 5-11
West
This is clearly the Broncos division. Peyton Manning always leads a good offense, and as long as they look out for 60-yard hail mary passes in playoff games the defense should be one of the AFC's best, too. They are not without flaws; they've already lost two centers for the year, they don't have a proven running back, Elvis Dumervil is gone and Von Miller will miss 6 games. Chiefs are probably the next most competitive team but they've got a long way to go after they only won 2 games in 2012. Still, significant changes at coach and quarterback could add half dozen wins to that. Chargers made some team management changes but not much player talent improvements. The Raiders are not only disfunctional but devoid of talent. Tough combo.
Broncos
+ Peyton with the best receiving corps in the NFL
- injuries to offensive line, Von Miller suspended for early challenging games
Tough games: Ravens, @Giants, @Cowboys, @Colts, Redskins, @Patriots, @Texans
Prediction: 11-5
Chiefs
+ Coach Reid and Alex Smith significantly improve one of the worst QB situations from 2012. Jamaal Charles is a star. Arrowhead is generally a big home advantage.
- poor pass protection on offense and poor pass rush on defense
Winnable games: @Jags, @Titans, Raiders, Browns, @Bills, Chargers, @Raiders, Colts, @Chargers
Prediction: 8-8
Chargers
+ Added talent on defense, front office changes
- Declining and turnover-prone quarterback with a depleted receiving group
Winnable games: @Titans, @Raiders, Colts, Raiders, Chiefs
Prediction: 5-11
Raiders
+ ... ...
- least talented team by far and no management stability
Winnable games: Jags, Redskins, Chargers, Eagles, Titans, Chiefs, @Chargers
Prediction: 3-13
North
The Black and Blue division is likely to be tougher than ever as the Bengals, Ravens and Browns all improved their defenses and the two young quarterbacks Weeden and Dalton look to make a step forward. Baltimore is the defending Super Bowl champions, but they have gone through the most personnel changes in the whole league. Their offense is depending a whole lot on Joe Flacco and Ray Rice without much help elsewhere, but while the defense shed some aging veteran leadership they found some real pass rushers. The Steelers are still led by Big Ben Roethlisberger and Troy Polamalu, but how many games will those stars be healthy enough to play? Two and a half years ago I thought the Bengals were nuts for retaining Coach Marvin Lewis; now I believe they are headed to their third straight postseason. Cincinnati has the most talent in the division on offense and defense but it all depends on Andy Dalton's progression. Fortunately, they added some toys for him in the draft. Cleveland has the furthest to go and the only unproven quarterback in the division, but they have improved around him and brought in Norv Turner as O-Coordinator which should give him a boost.
Bengals
+ AJ Green, Geno Atkins, defense should be great
- How good is Andy Dalton, and can he get the ball to anyone else?
Tough games: @Bears, Packers, Patriots, @Ravens, Colts, @Steelers
Prediction: 10-6
Ravens
+ Pass rush with Dumervil, Canty, Suggs and Ngata; Super Bowl experience; Ray Rice most valuable player in division
- massive roster turnover; lack of receivers; challenging schedule; SB hangover
Tough games: @Broncos, Texans, Packers, @Steelers, @Bears, Patriots, @Bengals
Prediction: 9-7
Browns
+ Trent Richardson focal point on offense
- Below average QB play, #1 receiver suspended first 2 games, tough schedule
Winnable games: Dolphins, Bills, Lions, Steelers, Jags, @Jets
Prediction: 7-9
Steelers
+ Franchise stability, Roethlisberger’s experience
- Poor offensive line coupled with Big Ben’s beleaguered injury history, lost top receiver and top 2 running backs, top two tight ends also hurt
Winnable games: Titans, @Jets, @Raiders, Bills, Lions, Dolphins, Browns
Prediction: 6-10
South
This division mirrors the West and East: the Texans have established themselves as a wide class above the rest; the Colts are gunning for a playoff berth, and the other two teams are terrible. Indianapolis and Luck appear to have gotten lucky in 2012 and are hoping to grow on that. I don't think they are strong as an 11-win team, but in an easy AFC and if Andrew Luck is all that he is made out to be, they should be a 9- or 10-win team and good enough to play an extra game in January. The Titans and Jaguars each have poor quarterbacks and poor defenses, a lethal combination for fans' hopes.
Texans
+ Foster + Andre Johnson + Watt = starpower
- average QB, team’s inability to make noise in the playoffs
Tough games: @Ravens, Seahawks, @49ers, Patriots, @Colts, Broncos
Prediction: 11-5
Colts
+ Potential of Andrew Luck with more weapons, lots of 2012 first-year players more experienced now
- Offensive line, rushing, defense all suspect
Tough games: @49ers, Seahawks, Broncos, @Texans, @Bengals, Texans
Prediction: 9-7
Jaguars
+ MJD is back, good group of young receivers, new coach
- Terrible quarterback play, one of league’s worst defenses
Winnable games: Chiefs, @Raiders, Colts, Chargers, Cardinals, Bills, Titans
Prediction: 6-10
Titans
+ Strong ground game, several quality receivers
- Terrible defense devoid of playmakers, Jake Locker doesn’t look like an NFL quarterback
Winnable games: Chargers, Jets, Chiefs, Jaguars, @Raiders, Cardinals
Prediction: 5-11
Lock It Up
Patriots
Texans
Broncos
Bengals
Likely Wild Cards
Ravens
Colts
Potential Party Crashers
Chiefs
My Pick for AFC Champ
(Surprise!) Bengals
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