NFL Power Report, 10/13

After Week 5 one thing is clear: nothing is clear. The league seems to have really leveled out. There are no power teams that will sail to 14 or 15 wins. It's hard to see any teams that will be resting players and giving away games in December. Every team has issues.

The league has certainly tiered off, though. And while I find it impossible to accurately rank the teams 1-32, we can definitely put them in groups.

The Clear Top
Steelers, Ravens, Jets
These are the obvious best defenses and best teams. Steelers and Ravens have issues on offense and while a reinstated Big Ben is an improvement on Charlie Batch, it's no Joe Montana under center. Jets' coaching have done a great job letting Mark Sanchez lead the Jets. J-E-T-S Jets are probably #1 right now.

The Atlanta Falcons
Falcons
Kind of alone at the top of the NFC thanks to everyone else falling apart around them. Offense is balanced and defense seems improved from a year ago. Imagine if they had beaten the Steelers in Week 1 (overtime loss).

Great Offense, Poor Defense
Patriots, Colts, Texans

Flashes of Brilliance
Giants, Titans
Similar teams. When they are right they can dominate.

We Just Don't Know
Saints, Eagles, Packers, Bears, Chiefs, Dolphins, Redskins
Packers got decimated by injuries last week. Chiefs seem to be contenders in the West. If Vick is in the Eagles can be good. Bears are bad but may take advantage of a weak division. Saints haven't shown anything yet. Redskins are overachieving with a new coach. Dolphins, I don't know.

Underachievers
Cowboys, Chargers, Vikings, Bengals
Bengals, with all that offensive firepower, have back-to-back losses to the Browns and Bucs. Cowboys and Vikings are 1-3. Rivers is putting up great passing numbers but the Chargers have three losses to West Coast teams (two in the division).

Not Very Good, But Can Sure Fool Ya Once In a While
Cardinals, Seahawks, Buccaneers, Broncos, Jaguars, Raiders

Lions and Rams
Lions and Rams
Lions have been competitive in all their games. I thought these teams were pretty level but then the Rams just lost to the 0-4 Lions by almost 40 points.

These Teams Totally Stink
Bills, Panthers, 49ers, Browns

Baseball Awards

October is here, marking the beginning of the Baseball Postseason. Before making my playoff predictions, here's my votes for awards of the regular season.

AL MVP: Robinson Cano
NL MVP: Joey Votto
AL Cy Young: CC Sabathia (call me a homer, but he was the only consistent for the Yankees, and 21 wins in the AL East is better than 13 in the awful AL West in the best pitcher's park)
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay
AL Manager: Ron Gardenhire
NL Manager: Bud Black, who kept the surprise Padres in contention until the last day of the season.
AL Rookie: Neftali Feliz
NL Rookie: Buster Posey

NFL Week 4 in Review

I didn't get a chance to write up a preview for the weekend's games or see many in live action. I did get to see the Giants/Bears games, one of the wackiest ones ever.

The first week for the Jets was an embarrassment. But after four games, Mark Sanchez has 8 touchdown passes and no turnovers, and the J-E-T-S Jets have beaten all three of their division rivals in a row. Meanwhile on the other side, the Giants have committed 3 turnovers in all four games. Yikes!

Kevin Kolb got another chance after Michael Vick got hurt and his stats looked pretty good. But look closer: nearly every pass was a dump off to a running back or tight end. He doesn't make the big play. Kolb was 20/27 of passes 6 yards and less and only 2/8 of passes over 6 yards. And around 14 of his passes were to LeSean McCoy, who is hurt and is unlikely to play next week. Like I've said before: with Vick this is a playoff team; with Kolb they are a sub-.500 team.

Who predicted this? The best team in the NFC West is the St Louis Rams, who have already doubled last year's win total.

Bests of the Week

Team: San Diego Chargers who took their frustrations out on the Cardinals, outgaining the Cardinals by nearly 300 and outscoring them by 31.

Players:
Gold Medal: LaDainian Tomlinson who rushed for over 130 yards and two touchdowns, reminiscent of his glory days in San Diego. I admit that I was wrong in my evaluation of LT coming into this season; he has been a legitimate #1 back.
Silver Medal: Patriots' Patrick Chung, who blocked two kicks and had an interception returned for a touchdown. Also noteworthy, Shaun Philips of the Chargers, who compiled four sacks and an interception-touchdown.
Bronze Medal: David Garrard, who got three touchdowns and completed 77% of his passes to lead the Jaguars in an upset over the Colts.

Clutch kicker: Josh Scobee hitting a 59 yard field goal to win the game.

Half: Patriots, who returned a kickoff for a touchdown, blocked a punt that led to a touchdown, blocked a field goal try and ran it back for a touchdown, returned an interception for a touchdown, and added another interception late. Including the field goal right before halftime and second half, the Patriots outscored the Dolphins 38-7 in Miami.

Upset: Browns over the Bengals. Also noteworthy, Jags over Colts.

Worsts of the Week

Player: Jay Cutler who looked like he was in the wrong league. 9 sacks and a concussion, plus an interception in the first half for a net -13 yards passing in the first half. I've never seen a player look so lost in an NFL game.

Unit: The Bears offensive line, who seemed to let one or two Giants have a free run at Cutler on every play.

Half: maybe it's piling on, but the Giants and Bears did nothing right in the first half of their game. Cutler was a mess, the Giants' special teams play was embarrassing, and the teams combined for three turnovers and a missed field goal.

Bone-headed play: Nate Clements of the 49ers, who, with a one point lead with 1:30 left in the game, intercepted a pass. Instead of holding it and ending the play, he attempted to run it back and Roddy White poked the ball out for a fumble. Falcons got the ball, and got in position for a game-winning field goal.

Stock is Rising: Rams, Ravens, Patriots.

Stock is Falling: Colts, Eagles, Bears.

NFL Week 3 in Review

After 3 games there are three undefeated teams: Kansas City Chiefs, Pittsburgh Steelers with Dennis Dixon and Charlie Batch, and the Chicago Bears. Wow, what a start. There seems to be more parity in the league than in a long time, and it is hard to find any team that will win 13 games this year.

Bests of the Week:

Team: Kansas City Chiefs, who completely dominated the 49ers.

Players:
Gold Medal: Michael Vick, who threw for 291 yards and four total touchdowns, including this throw.

Silver Medal: Leon Washington of the Seahawks, who returned two kickoffs for touchdowns to help the Seahawks upset the Chargers.

Bronze Medal: BYU Alum Austin Collie, who caught 12 passes for 171 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Also deserving mention: Anquan Boldin (3 touchdown catches), and Adrian Peterson (160 yards, two TDs) helping the Vikings get their first win.

Catch: Tony Moeaki's amazing grab. Also, how did Antonio Gates catch this pass?

Flea-flicker: Matt Cassell to Dwayne Bowe. Everyone loves a Flea-flicker.

Game: Falcons road upset in overtime over the Saints.

Upset: Rams over the Redskins.

Worsts of the Week

Game execution: New York Giants. 471 yards, only 10 points?

Team performance: Packers, who committed 18 penalties for a whopping 152 yards, missed a field goal, and had a bad turnover that lost the game.

Pressure kickers: Saints' Garrett Hartley missed a 29 yard field goal in overtime, and Raiders' Sebastian Janikowski missed a 32 yard chip shot as time expired. Both would have been game winners.

Stock is Rising: Chiefs, Falcons, Jets

Stock is Falling: 49ers, Chargers, Panthers

NFL Week 3 Preview

Storylines
* Andy Reid, after stonewalling for weeks, changes his mind and declares Michael Vick the starter for the foreseeable future. The Eagles immediately jump into the playoff picture. The main cause, I believe, is that Philly's offensive line is so bad that Kevin Kolb would get killed in there. Michael Vick was running for his life and still making huge throws down the field. So what are they doing with Kevin Kolb then, their anointed "franchise quarterback"?
* Jets: They had a huge win over their hated rivals, and celebrated by having their #1 receiver arrested for drunk driving with two teammates in the vehicle. Darelle Revis tweaked his hammy, which seems remarkably easy to expect after he skipped all of training camp and preseason. This team is always in the news.
* Teams in Trouble? 0-1 is easy to recover from, but 0-2 brings some cause for concern. Cowboys, Vikings and 49ers are all 0-2. Vikings ought to get on board hosting the Lions, but the Cowboys have a tough game in Houston and the 49ers go on the road to Kansas City against the 2-0 Chiefs. Cowboys and Vikings are a mess.
* Quarterback Carousel: Bruce Gradkowski, Seneca Wallace, Jimmy Clausen, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Shaun Hill, Charlie Batch, and the aforementioned Michael Vick are all starting quarterbacks this week. Welcome to the NFL.
* Lions' rookie Jahvid Best has five touchdowns in his first two games.
* Hot Seat: Eric Mangini, still on schedule to get fired on Halloween. John Fox is likely to follow. Jerry Jones says no coaching change will be made midseason, which is more than what Wade Phillips deserves. Lovie Smith escapes the hot seat with a nice win last week.

Key Matchups
- Falcons @ Saints: big divisional game, Falcons' statement game. No Reggie Bush.
- Jets @ Dolphins: both teams coming off big wins. Without Revis, will Brandon Marshall finally take off?
- Titans @ Giants: my teams.
- 49ers @ Chiefs: a KC win would really cripple the Niners and put the Chiefs in the driver seat.
- Cowboys @ Texans: see 49ers/Chiefs.
- Packers @ Bears: division rivals are both 2-0.

Individual Performance Predictions
- QB: Vince Young scores two touchdowns (pass or run)
- RB: Adrian Peterson scores two touchdowns.
- WR: Miles Austin totals 100 yards and scores a touchdown.
- DF: Dolphins allow less than 130 yards passing.
(last week: Vick only 2 TDs miss, Bradshaw 89/0 miss, Moss only 1 TD miss, Titans allow 18 miss = 0-4. To date = 3-4-1)

Upset Alert
Titans over Giants
Bears over Packers
last week = 2-0 (Bengals and Chiefs). To date = 4-0

Stone Cold Picks:
- Dolphins over Jets. Sanchez will have a terrible game. Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown each run for over 80 yards.
- Eagles over Jaguars. Michael Vick goes to 2-0 as a starter.
- 49ers over Chiefs. Alex Smith stinks, but Matt Cassell is worse.
- Saints over Falcons. The Champs are just better.
(last week = 1-3. To date = 4-5)

When will they win their first (or next) game? Not before...
*Rams: Week 4
*Lions: Week 5
*Bears: Week 7 (wrong)
*Bucs: Week 7 (wrong)
*Bills: Week 9
*Browns: Week 12

the worst sporting weekend ever

The first play of the NFL schedule was the Titans giving up a return for a touchdown on the opening kickoff, followed by a fumble on the ensuing kickoff on the way to a loss. The Patriots had a terrible second half and got blown out by the Jets. The Giants got completely destroyed Sunday night. Mariano Rivera blew a save and the Yankees got beat by the Orioles. My alma mater BYU got beat on Saturday. Heck, even UConn (the local school) lost to Temple! Not to mention all four of my fantasy football teams lost this week.

WEEK 2 IN REVIEW

I find it incredible that in Week 1 the leader in rushing yards was a Houston Texan, and in Week 2 the leader in passing was a Texan. What more do I need to say?

Bests of the Week:

Team: Indianapolis Colts, completely dominating the New York Giants all the way around, led by another amazing performance by Peyton Manning.

Players:
Gold Medal: Lots of quarterbacks, Jay Cutler of the Bears at the top, who completed over 72% of his passes for 277 yards and 3 touchdowns and no turnovers in a big upset over the Cowboys in Big D. Matt Schaub threw for nearly 500 yards in a win, Mark Sanchez had a career day, and Michael Vick played so well Andy Reid ate his words.

Silver Medal: Jahvid Best of the Lions, who scored three touchdowns and gained 230 yards in a game started by a backup quarterback. Unfortunately, it was in a losing effort.

Bronze Medal: James Harrison of the Steelers who had two sacks, forced two fumbles, and totaled 11 tackles as the Steelers beat the Titans. Also noteworthy, Jason Allen of the Dolphins, who picked off Brett Favre twice and also had 11 total tackles.

Catch: Randy Moss' one handed catch ahead of Darelle Revis.

Game: Texans over the Redskins in overtime.

Redemption: Redskins' kicker missing the field goal in overtime, moments after Gary Kubiak declined to send out Neil Rackers to attempt a game-winning 53-yard field goal, punting instead.

Upset: Bears winning in Dallas.

Defensive Stand: Miami Dolphins stopping Adrian Peterson on 3 straight carries inside the 5, including on 4th and 1, preserving a four point win.

Highlight: Eagles and Lions (Vick, Best, McCoy)

Worsts of the Week:

Team: My Tennessee Titans, who were miserable on special teams (kickoff for a touchdown and a fumbled kickoff on two straight plays to start the game) and offense (6 more turnovers), losing to Charlie Batch despite limiting the Steelers to 21 passing yards.

Cheap Shot: Eric Smith knocking Wes Welker in the head. Welker did practically nothing for the rest of the game and (neither did the Patriots).

Life choice: Braylon Edwards of the Jets, who was arrested for DWI on Tuesday at 5am, as well as teammates D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Vernon Gholston who were also riding in the car.

Decision: Me changing my Stone Cold Picks choice of the Bengals for the Cowboys.

Stocks are Rising: Bucs, Steelers.

Stocks are Falling: Cowboys, Vikings, Panthers.

chicks dig the long ball so they're loving these guys

The number one story of this entire season has been "home runs are down." Hitting is at the lowest in a decade. Pitching is dominating.

Then there's Jose Bautista. The 29 year-old journeyman utility fielder is playing for his sixth team in seven seasons. On Saturday he hit his 49th home run of the season. His previous season high was 16. 16 to 49, that's like a 306% increase with like two weeks left to add to that total. No other player even has 40. How do you explain that?

And then there's Troy Tulowitzki. On Saturday, the Rockies' shortstop hit two more home runs, his 14th of September. That's 14 home runs in 15 games. Before September he had twelve all season. If he was on a team in the cellar it wouldn't matter much, but his Rockies are storming back into the playoff hunt. On August 23, not too long ago, the Rockies were 11 games behind division-leading San Diego. Today (September 18), the Rockies are one single game back. (It doesn't hurt that teammate Carlos Gonzalez is hitting .388 since the beginning of July.) Some of you may credit Coors Field for that, but he also has five homers in five road games in pitcher-friendly San Diego and Los Angeles this month.

Especially with the situation around the rest of the league, these two hitters are having truly historical seasons that shouldn't be overlooked.

NFL Week 2 Preview

(note: I'm editing one pick on Saturday, removing Bengals/Ravens from my Stone Cold Picks since it's already in my upset pick, and replacing it with the Cowboys)

Storylines
* Manning Bowl: It's Peyton vs. little brother Eli as the Colts host the Giants.
* Controversy in Philly? All Michael Vick needed was a chance, and he got that chance last week showing he gives the Eagles the best chance to win.
* Quarterback injuries already stacking up: Eagles' Kevin Kolb, Lions' Matthew Stafford, Browns' Jake Delhomme, and Panthers' Matt Moore all got hurt last week and are at best questionable this week.
* 0-2? Top teams that lost Week 1: Colts, Vikings, 49ers, Chargers, Falcons, Cowboys. Falcons, Vikings, Chargers, and Cowboys all win. 49ers will fall to 0-2. I'm not picking the Colts' game here.
* Hot Seat: Eric Mangini will be the first coach fired, during the Browns' bye week (Halloween). The Bears' Lovie Smith will be fired November 15.

Key Matchups:
- Patriots @ Jets: These teams really hate each other. Will big-mouth Jets go 0-2 and fall 2 games behind Pats? Revis vs. Moss?
- Giants @ Colts: see above
- Ravens @ Bengals: big AFC North matchup

What to Watch For:
- QB: Eagles' Michael Vick scores at least 3 touchdowns (passing or running).
- RB: Giants' Ahmad Bradshaw runs for 100 yards and a touchdown.
- WR: Randy Moss scores two touchdowns.
- DF: Titans keep Steelers under 11 points.
(last week: Favre 1/1 TD/INT check, Johnson 142 yards rushing check, Bolding did not score but had 110 yards, push, Jaguars allowed 89 yards rushing check = 3-0-1)

Upset Alert:
- Chiefs (again) over Browns
- Bengals over Ravens
last week 2-0 (Ravens and Chiefs)

Stone Cold Picks:
- Patriots over Jets. On a bad day, the Patriots high-powered would score 20 points. Jets are not scoring more than 17.
- Titans over Steelers. Titans offense dominated last week, this week the defense will. Steelers only had 9 before overtime against a crappy Falcons D a week ago.
- Chargers over Jaguars. Short week for the Chargers, but coming home after an embarrassing loss, against a team from 3000 miles away I'll take the Bolts.
- Cowboys over Bears. Bears already got their win. Cowboys are not losing their home opener to go 0-2.
(last week = 3-2)

When will they win their next (or first) game? Not before...
* Rams: Week 4
* Lions: Week 5
* Bears: Week 7
* Bucs: Week 7
* Bills: Week 9
* Browns: Week 12

great day to be a fan

Week 1 is over, and from my point of view, it couldn't have been better.

- Titans, Patriots, and Giants all won easily.
- Colts, Chargers, Jets, Cowboys, and Eagles all lost.
- Tom Brady looked great, Chris Johnson ran all over the field, and Vince Young had the highest QB rating (raise your hand if you picked that).
- No important players on my teams got hurt.
- I went 12-4 in picking the games, including picking the big upset correctly, Chiefs beat the Chargers in KC, as well as the little upset, Ravens over the Jets.

Week 1 in Review
There were no super heroes injured, so despite some disappointing performances no team's season is over, so fans and teams should not overreact. However, there are some areas of concerns, weaknesses exposed, and holes teams put themselves into.

Bests o' the Week

Players:
Gold Medal: Arian Foster of the Texans, no question. Foster ran for 231 yards and 3 touchdowns as the Texans won a huge game for their franchise over the Colts.

Silver Medal: Matt Hasselback of the Seahawks, who, after his first pass of the game (an interception), compiled a QB rating of 150 en route to a blowout upset over the 49ers.

Bronze Medal: Adrian Wilson of the Arizona Cardinals, who compiled a sack, two interceptions, and blocked a field goal.

Best Team: Patriots

Best Game: Texans over Colts

Highlight: Deon Grant's interception (#10 in that video)

Worsts of the Week

Play: Cowboys call to run a play with 11 seconds left in the first half from their own 30 yard line down 3-0 (result: fumble returned for a touchdown = trailing 10-0

Call: Calvin Johnson's game-winner that wasn't. With 25 seconds left this should have given the Lions the win. Compare this to this catch in the Super Bowl, that REVIEW overturned and called a touchdown.

Coach: Vikings' Brad Childress. Vikings were leading at halftime and only trailed later by 5 points, only called for 6 handoffs to Adrian Peterson (their best player) in the second half of the Viking's loss to the Saints, compared to 13 passing plays for a rusty Brett Favre.

Team: How bad was the Jets offense Monday night? The Jets totaled only 6 first downs, converted only 1 third attempt, and averaged a measly 2.6 yards per pass play (compare that to the Bears' 9.3). They started four drives inside the Ravens' 40 yard line and only mustered 9 points. Defense included, the Jets committed 14 penalties worth 125 yards, 70% of their team's total gain.

Quarter: The Panthers and Giants turned the ball over on six consecutive possessions in the 4th quarter.

Prediction: ever picking the Browns to win.

Stocks are Rising: Patriots, Seahawks, Chiefs

Stocks are Falling: Colts, 49ers, Jets

NFL Season Preview, #7: AFC South

The Colts are coming off a 16-win season (including the playoffs). History says that the Super Bowl loser will have an off year, and while the Titans and Texans are trying to climb, the Colts have #18 and nobody else does.

Indianapolis Colts
As long as Peyton Manning is on the field, the Colts will always be the favorites. He is the greatest regular season quarterback of all-time, no question. When it comes to the rest of the team, there isn't a lot to say. They aren't going to run the ball much at all with Joseph Addai and Donald Brown. They have lots of receivers: Wayne, Dallas Clark, Garcon, Collie the Cougar, Anthony Gonzalez (and Addai). They will probably repeat as the #32 running team in the NFL but it doesn't seem to matter. The defense is not great, but they have playmakers (Bob Sanders, Robert Mathis, Gary Brackett). The Colts are not a deep team, I think it's been 5 years since they won a single preseason game, and if (heaven forbid) anything ever happens to Peyton this is a 5 win team. But he's been remarkably durable his whole career so 11+ wins seems likely once again. They have a REALLY tough stretch after their bye week: Texans, at Philadelphia, Bengals, at New England, Chargers, Cowboys, at Tennessee. So even if they start 6-0 they aren't out of the clear. Last year the Colts were really lucky. They should have lost at least 4 other games. Don't expect 13 wins this year.

Key Games:
- Giants on 9/19
- Texans on Monday Night Football 11/1
- @ Patriots on 11/21
- Chargers on 11/28
- @ Titans on Thursday 12/9
Projection: 11-5

Tennessee Titans
Chris Johnson is my favorite player in the NFL. One reason he is so good is that his style is not to run through people and drag people like Adrian Peterson, but to run around them with his blazing speed. He had a crazy number of touches (rushes plus receptions) but he's also probably too young to break down. He is the focal point of the Titans offense; there is no 40 year old legend at quarterback who expects to throw forty times a game. Vince Young never gets big numbers. His quarterback statistics are middle of the road. But he holds a 66% winning percentage and has leadership like an elite quarterback, and has demonstrated capability to lead a comeback with his arm (as well as his legs). The defense was very bad last year (59 points allowed to Patriots in the snow), and they lost Kyle Vanden Bosch, so there is some work to do. This is a defense-minded team so they should be able to improve. Jeff Fisher is the best coach in the NFL without a championship. If they start liked they finished last year the Titans will be in the playoff hunt. Titans have five divisional games in their last six weeks.

Key Games:
- Steelers on 9/19
- @ Jaguars on Monday Night Football on 10/18
- @ Dolphins on 11/14
- @ Texans on 11/28
- Colts on Thursday 12/9
- Texans on 12/19
- @ Colts on 1/2
Projection: 10-6

Houston Texans
If the Texans get a dependable ground game they could have the best offense in the AFC. That was Slaton two years ago, and Arian Foster could do that now. Andre Johnson and Matt Schaub are the best QB to WR connection in the league. The defense is suspect, especially without defensive rookie of the year Brian Cushing suspended for the beginning of the season. They are starting a rookie first rounder at cornerback against Peyton Manning. Mario Williams has done a great job supporting his #1 draft pick status; he's a stud. The Texans' schedule is really difficult, so even if they have one of the best teams in the AFC they probably won't win 10 games and make the playoffs (especially in those first four weeks without Cushing). But they could really assert themselves as a championship contender if they can beat the Colts in Week 1; it's really a must win game.

Key Games:
- Colts on 9/12
- @ Colts on Monday Night Football 11/1
- @ Jets on 11/21
- Titans on 11/28
- Ravens on Monday Night Football on 12/13
- @ Titans on 12/19
Projection: 9-7

Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags were in the drivers' seat to the playoffs a year ago at 7-5 until they lost their last four games. Maurice Jones-Drew is one of the best all-purpose running backs in the league, a touchdown machine and close to 1400 yards last season. David Garrard finally got a good receiver in Mike Sims-Walker, but he disappeared in the second half of the season. The defense had by far the fewest sacks in the NFL, and if you can't get pressure on Manning and Schaub then you are in trouble. The Jags are a boring team in a town that they will likely leave soon.

Key Games:
- Colts on 10/3
- Titans on Monday Night Football on 10/18
- Texans on 11/14
- @ Titans on 12/5
- @ Colts on 12/19
- @ Texans on 1/2
Projection: 5-11

Super Picks

I still have a couple divisions left to preview but today's opening day for the NFL. Here's the science behind my Super Bowl pick.

Teams with a shot to win the Super Bowl
NFC:
Cowboys, Saints, Falcons, Vikings, 49ers, Packers, Giants
AFC:
Colts, Patriots, Chargers, Ravens, Bengals, Steelers, Jets, Texans, Dolphins, Titans

- Saints, Steelers, Giants, Colts, and Patriots have all won recently with their current quarterback, so they all make the list. The Steelers and Giants have weak offensive lines and probably won't make the playoffs.
- Cowboys could have home field advantage in the Big Game but Wade Phillips isn't a Super Bowl coach and the rest of the team isn't mature enough. Bengals are also strong individually, but not tough enough to win 3 playoff games.
- Falcons, Texans, and Titans are set up like the Saints a year ago with really strong offenses coming off a year outside the playoffs. The defenses do not look ready for the Super Bowl. The Patriots are in the same group; great offense, weak defense.
- Jets have a great defense but not enough offense.
- Dolphins and 49ers could be really solid but don't have much experience.
- Chargers and Vikings are weaker than a year ago.
- Packers and Ravens look really strong on both sides of the ball.
- Colts have Peyton Manning, Saints have Drew Brees.

My Super Bowl Prediction:
RAVENS over Saints

NFL Season Preview, #6: AFC East

One of the strongest and most intriguing divisions in the league and one of my favorites is the AFC East, where the Jets are calling themselves future champions, Dolphins made the best trade of the offseason, and the Patriots have Tom Brady and Bill Belichek.

New England Patriots
Brady is a couple years clear of his injury and has been incredible this preseason, completing 78% of his passes. Randy Moss is a head case and Wes Welker is making an incredibly fast recovery from his knee injury, but I am really excited about the hometown New England Patriots this year. They won't use the running game much, but Fred Taylor looks like he can be the productive player he's been across his career. The defense is certainly young and doesn't have much star power, but they've been with Belichek for a year now and should be improved. They don't have a pass rush, and that's an issue in the NFL. Tom Brady is the best quarterback in the division, and that is a huge advantage over teams with Mark Sanchez, Chad Henne, and Trent Edwards. The early schedule is tough with road games in Miami and New York, along with hosting the Bengals in Week 1, and after the bye they play the Ravens, at San Diego, and then the Minnesota Favres. Don't worry if they fall a couple games behind because they could easily win their last 6 games.

Key Games:
- @ Jets on 9/19
- Ravens on 10/17
- @ Chargers on 10/24
- Colts on 11/21
- Dolphins on 1/2
Projection: 11-5

Miami Dolphins
Here's what I like: Coach Sparano, Chad Henne, Brandon Marshall, Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. I think the defense could be pretty good with Mike Nolan as the new D-coordinator, newcomers Karlos Dansby and 7 of their 8 draft choices replacing the old Jason Taylor, Joey Porter and Jason Ferguson. But the offense is what I really like: a strong ground game and a blooming Chad Henne with Brandon Marshall to throw at. There won't be much need for the Wildcat formation.

Key Games:
- Jets on 9/26
- Patriots on Monday Night Football on 10/4
- @ Jets on 12/12
- @ Patriots 1/2

Projection: 10-6

New York Jets
Just to remind people on the Jets' bandwagon: the Jets made the playoffs after the Colts quit playing and the Bengals rested their entire team, and then made it to the AFC Championship game because the Bengals missed two field goals and the Chargers missed three. This team was awful most of last year.
The best news in the northeast this month was that Darelle Revis signed a new contract with the Jets and he'll be on the field starting in Week 1. The Jets picked up LT, which has a lot of name recognition, but he was the workhorse for the league's 31st-ranked rushing game, so going to the league's best rushing team... it's hard to see a big impact. I don't feel great about Shonn Greene for 16 weeks but the Jets were big on him enough to drop Thomas Jones. For the Jets to be as good as they think they will, Mark Sanchez will have to become a good quarterback and I don't think he is ready to make a huge jump from 12 TDs/ 20 INTS, NFL's 31st ranked passing game. They will be tested right away against the Ravens, Patriots, and in Miami. The defense is good enough to keep them close in every game.

Key Games:
- Ravens on 9/13
- Patriots on 9/19
- @ Dolphins on 9/26
- @ Patriots on 12/6

Projection: 9-7

Buffalo Bills
The offense will be terrible. The defense won't be good enough. They have a bunch of good running backs behind a bad offensive line. The other three teams in the division are miles ahead. The quarterbacking is one of the NFL's worst. The hometown is not supportive and they will have to play some home games in Toronto. They'll start 0-4. I'm not optimistic about the Bills and I don't want to write anything more.

Key Games:
- Bears on 11/7
- Lions on 11/14
- Browns on 12/12

Projection: 3-13

NFL Week 1 Preview

Wow, the regular season is already here! I haven't finished all the divisional previews, but here is the lowdown on this week's games.

Key Matchups:
-Vikings @ Saints: rematch of NFC Championship Game
-Ravens @ Jets: the media-frenzied Jets get a tough matchup with the rising Ravens
-Colts @ Texans: Texans are 1-15 against the Colts. They want to make a statement. This is their biggest game of the year.
-Bengals @ Patriots: matchup of two division winners

Individual Statements:
QB - Viking's Brett Favre throws more interceptions than touchdowns (or equal)
RB - Titan's Chris Johnson runs for over 130 yards
WR - Raven's Anquan Boldin scores a touchdown despite Darelle Revis
DF - Jaguars allow under 90 yards rushing

Upset Alert:
Ravens over Jets
Chiefs over Chargers

Stone Cold Picks
- Giants over Panthers - GMen win big
- Colts over Texans - Texans still jinxed. Teams combine for 670+ yards passing.
- Saints over Vikings - Favre gets roughed up again
- Browns over Bucs - Browns get a win early on the road
- Ravens over Jets - Ravens score 25 or more, Mark Sanchez throws more TDs than INTs

NFL Season Preview #5: AFC West

The AFC West has been owned of late by the Chargers who, ever since Philip Rivers became the starting quarterback, have won 4 titles in a row. And while they shouldn't be as strong as they've been, and other teams in the division are improving, the Chargers ought to still be a few games better than anyone else.

San Diego Chargers
Philip Rivers doesn't get much respect and attention around the country, but he should. He hasn't missed a game, his QB rating has been over 104 two years in a row and he is among the leaders in most other statistical categories. Along with that, his team wins. But like the Colts, Rivers and the Chargers can't get it done in the playoffs, going 3-4 the last few years, despite being the favorite in most of those games. There are some changes and challenges this season: Vincent Jackson is suspended for at least part of the season and may never play for the Chargers again, a significant loss as he's among the leaders in yards per reception. Left tackle is one of the most important positions on the field, and the Chargers' Marcus McNeill is holding out and may miss most of the season. And the best running back over the last decade, LaDamian Tomlinson, is gone to New York, leaving the Chargers counting on rookie Ryan Matthews. The Chargers are fortunate that they don't have to travel to the East Coast, and they host a couple teams that have to fly 3,000 from their home (Patriots and Jaguars).

Key Games:
- Patriots on 10/24
- @ Colts on 11/28
- @ Bengals on 12/26
Projection: 10-6

Oakland Raiders
I have been pretty optimistic about the Raiders this offseason, but I'm getting a little concerned as new starting quarterback Jason Campbell is already dealing with an injured wrist and shoulder/back, starting running back Michael Bush has a broken thumb, Darren McFadden hardly played in the preseason, and receiver Chaz Schilens is out for about a month with an injured knee. Along with that, their starting center is a rookie who hasn't worked much at all with quarterback Campbell. On defense, the Raiders ranked 31 against the run last year and they have addressed that area significantly in the draft. They do have a couple stars on defense in Nnamdi Asamugha (who has the toughest name to spell or pronounce in the league) and former Patriot Richard Seymour. I like coach Tom Cable, and the Raiders will be competitive this year for the first time in 8 years.

Key Games:
- Texans on 10/3
- Chargers on 10/10
- @ 49ers on 10/17
- Dolphins on 11/28
- @ Chargers on 12/5
Projection: 8-8

Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs had a soft offense and even softer defense last year, but Coach Todd Haley has done a lot to toughen them up. Chiefs have grabbed former partners Charlie Weiss and Romeo Crenell to help run the show. This team has some talent and potential on the offense: a solid backfield with Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, a receiving corp that should make big plays, and a quarterback that should improve. The defensive secondary could be a strong point. The run game could be very poor again, but their early season schedule features the Chargers, Browns, Colts, and Texans, four of the worst ground games in the league. I see the Chiefs making the first real upset of the season, beating the Chargers in Kansas City om Week 1.

Key Games:
- Chargers on Monday Night Fooball on 9/13
- @ Raiders on 11/7
Projection: 7-9

Denver Broncos
I don't like their coach, they have below average running backs who are already dealing with injuries, they lost star receiver Brandon Marshall and their starting tight end, and they have a below average quarterback. Their best player on defense and NFL sacks leader is gone for the year. And the two divisonal bottom-feeders are much better. Kyle Orton has had a great preseason and he has won games in the past, so they could surprise me, but I see too big of a lack in talent. I think this will be one of the league's worst and most boring teams that will be buried by a 1-7 start.

Key Games:
- Raiders on 10/24
- @ Chargers on Monday Night Football on 11/22
- Chiefs on 11/14
Projection: 4-12

2010 Season Preview, #4: NFC South

The NFC South has been a division of equal opportunity as it has not had a repeat champion since the realignment in 2002, or even had any team make the playoffs two years in a row. The Super Bowl Champion Saints have a great chance to break that trend. Most writers and talking heads are picking a dropoff for no other reason than a honeymoon swoon, and picking the Falcons will win the division. There is another reason that's a good possibility.

The NFC South matches up this season with the strong AFC North, and while they play the same teams there are some big scheduling differences worth noting that favor the Falcons. The four AFC North teams are the Ravens, Bengals, Steelers, and Browns. The Falcons get the Bengals and Ravens at home, and are lucky enough to travel to Pittsburgh in Week 1 where Big Ben will not play. The Saints play the Bengals and Ravens on the road and get the Steelers in Week 8 when Big Ben is back. The Saints and Falcons also both play the 49ers; Falcons get them at home and Saints get them in San Francisco. The Saints better not take a honeymoon swoon or the streak of playoff inconsistency in the division may continue.

New Orleans Saints
The offense is as good as ever. Everyone is back and everybody seems to be healthy. Drew Brees had one of the greatest seasons ever. "He can't do it again," some may say, but I don't see him falling off a cliff, either. Especially with Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush, Marques Colston, Robert Meacham, Devery Henderson, etc. to share the ball with. The defense was remarkably opportunistic last year, their 8 defensive touchdowns were twice any other team. Gregg Williams is still in town, so they should still be good. I haven't heard of any big departures. Schedule is very tough: they play the Vikings, 49ers, and Falcons right off the bat. Darren Sharper, a lead playmaker on defense, is hurt and will miss at least the first six games.

Key Games: Vikings on Thursday on 9/9, 49ers on Monday Night Football on 9/20, Falcons on 9/26, @ Cowboys on Thanksgiving, @ Falcons on Monday Night Football on 12/27.
Projection: 12-4

Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons fell back to earth after flying high in 2008, going 9-7 and missing the playoffs. Injuries hit hard, and they stayed right in the middle of the pack in about every statistic. Matt Ryan is a smart guy and a good leader, but I'm not convinced that he's a Top 10 quarterback. However, it doesn't hurt having Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez to throw to and Michael Turner to hand off to. The place I'm most concerned is the defense. Atlanta did not win any shootouts; any game they allowed over 18 points they lost. and the only close games they won were 20-17 over the awful Buccaneers and 10-7 over the Jets. Like I mentioned above, they get a huge scheduling advantage over the Saints.

Key Games: 49ers on 10/3, Packers on 11/28, Saints on Monday Night Football on 12/27.
Projection: 10-6

Carolina Panthers
The Panthers deserved a better fate last year, but the ridiculous contract extension granted to Jake Delhomme after a terrible playoff loss earned that disappointment. There is reason for optimism with Matt Moore in charge, who helped the Panthers finish strong. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart form the best backfield duo in the NFL, no question. But Steve Smith, now on the wrong side of 30, has nobody to take away double coverage defense. The defense lost leader Julius Peppers. Matt Moore won games last year, but how good is he really now that he's in charge and rookie Jimmy Clausen is looking over his shoulder? The defense won't be able to stop many people, and opposing defenses will stack the box against the rush and force Moore to beat them. If the Panthers fall behind in games (as I expect), Stewart and Williams will have to take a lesser role.

Key Games: @ Giants 9/12, Saints 11/7, Falcons 12/12.
Projection: 7-9

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs may be good in 2012 but there is too much inexperience and untapped potential here in the meantime. The passing game is remarkably raw: Josh Freeman is the quarterback with Mike Williams and Maurice Stovall are the starting receivers. The running back is Cadillac Williams, a player who has never lived up to his expectations. First round draft pick Gerald McCoy could be a star on defense but he's a lonely star now. Last season's 3 wins will be tough to pass.

Key Games: Browns on 9/12, Rams on 10/24, Lions on 12/19, Seahawks on 12/26.
Projection: 2-14

2010 Season Preview, #3: NFC North

Brett Favre, perhaps you've heard of him? It's amazing how there are headlines saying Favre sent some texts to teammates saying his ankle is too bad to play, and then two weeks later he says his ankle is better than ever. Meanwhile, his old team is brimming with confidence and looks like a Super Bowl contender.

Green Bay Packers
This offense is bursting with playmakers. Aaron Rodgers finished last season as a top 4 in QB rating, passing yards and touchdowns. He has plenty of people to give the ball to again: Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, and Jermichael Finley are all capable of 1000-yard receiving seasons, and Ryan Grant looks to get his third straight season over 1200 rushing yards. ARod is mobile himself and scrambled for 300 yards and 5 touchdowns on the ground. The defense made the most of a soft schedule, leading the league in rushing defense and top 5 passing defense. However, they had their share of bad games, and 30 was the magic number: Packers were 0-6 when allowing 30 or more points and were 11-0 when keeping opponents under that. The road schedule is challenging (Eagles, Jets, Falcons, and Patriots) but the schedule in the first half is very generous; they could start 6-0, but don't get too excited because they could lose their next 6.

Key Games: Vikings on 10/24, Cowboys on 11/7, @ Vikings 11/21, 49ers on 12/5, @ Patriots 12/19.
Projection: 11-5

Minnesota Vikings
It feels that Brett Favre has been playing forever and it's true. He is coming off the best season of his career. His 7 interceptions were an outlier: he's had 14 seasons of 14+ INT's (twice last season's total), and his passing yardage was his highest in ten years. But there is no way that this gunner can repeat that miracle season. He's approaching 41 and he's already a grandfather. He has no ankle left. His favorite target Sidney Rice will miss the season with an injury and Percy Harvin's health is a huge question mark. But the Vikings still have Adrian Peterson and one of the league's best defenses. I'm a little concerned about AP's fumbling problem and I expect Favre to throw about 9 more interceptions this year (if he stays healthy). Like the Packers, the Vikings have a real tough stretch of games in October.

Key Games: @ Saints on Thursday 9/9, @ Jets on Monday Night Football on 10/11, Cowboys 10/17, @ Packers on 10/24, Packers on 11/21.
Projection: 10-6

Detroit Lions
When you are really bad for a long time you get a lot of good young talent in the draft. I don't think the Lions are ready to make a Dolphins-like leap in the standings, but the Lions will be much better. The offense has lots of weapons for former #1 draft pick Matthew Stafford: Megatron Calvin Johnson, newcomers Nate Burleson and TE Tony Sheffler, 2009 first round pick TE Brandon Pettigrew, 2010 first round pick RB Jahvid Best. The awful defense added monster Ndamukong Suh and Pro Bowler Kyle Vanden Bosch, and with Coach Schwarz having a year on his belt with the Lions, that unit should be better. Matthew Stafford will make lots of mistakes, but when you're coming off a total of 2 wins in two seasons there isn't a lot of pressure.

Key Games: Rams on 10/10, Redskins on 10/31, Bears on 12/5.
Projection: 5-11

Chicago Bears
After a disastrous season, you would think that hiring Mike Martz as the offensive coordinator and picking up Julius Peppers on defense, along with bringing back Brian Urlacher, would bring some optimism for the season. It doesn't seem to be working. Jay Cutler is having a miserable preseason and it appears that he doesn't trust his offensive line. The most important players on defense (Briggs and Urlacher) are hurting. It would be nice for Matt Forte to have a bounce-back season, but Jay Cutler will play like a poor man's Brett Favre from a few years ago. They better beat the Lions in Week 1 because if not they will be 0-5.

Key Games: Lions on 9/12, Packers on Monday Night Football on 9/27, Vikings on 11/14.
Projection: 5-11

NFL Season Preview, #2: NFC East

Normally a regular powerhouse division, the NFC Eest has more uncertainty in it than any other division. For the bottom three teams, it would not be a huge surprise if any of them went 11-5 or 5-11.



Dallas Cowboys
Here's what we know: the Cowboys are the clear-cut best in the division. Tony Romo and the Cowboys got the playoff monkey off their back last season, but they'll have to win more than one playoff game if they want to play the Super Bowl at home. Things are looking good for that opportunity. Although he does something really dumb on a regular basis, Tony Romo is an elite NFL quarterback with playoff experience, a great indicator for team success, and he is in position for a career year. Miles Austin broke out as an elite receiver last year, Jason Witten is an elite receiving tight end, and Dez Bryant should be able to take Roy William's place and contribute on the other side (if he can get on the field). The running back committee of Marion Barber, Felix Jones, and Tashard Choice is among the league's best corp. DeMarcus Ware is an elite defensive player. No, there is no shortage of star power with the Cowboys. The schedulers did no favors for the Cowboys as their road schedule is brutal: out of division road games in Indianapolis, Minnesota, Houston, and Green Bay.

Key Games: Giants on Monday Night Football 10/25, @ Packers on 11/7, Saints on Thanksgiving.
Projection: 11-5

New York Giants
With the Jets making all the noise this offseason, the Giants have been very quiet in the news. The defense, which was so problematic last year, should be much better (couldn't be any worse); in the preseason they look very deep and their new D-coordinator should keep things in control. Last year the offense was awful in the red zone and their ground game was middle of the pack, a year after they led the NFL. Brandon Jacobs' best years are behind him and its time for Ahmad Bradshaw to emerge among the league rushing leaders. The o-line is a concern so they added former Pro Bowler Shawn Andrews, but their center is hurting. Without Plaxico Burress, Eli Manning had a productive season with the Giants' young but deep receiving group. Yes I'm a Giants fan, and I'm optimistic about the season. And they did beat the Cowboys twice in '09.

Key Games: @ Cowboys on MNF on 10/25, Cowboys on 11/14, @ Eagles on 11/21, @ Minnesota 12/12.
Projection: 9-7

Philadelphia Eagles
The Kevin Kolb era in Philadelphia is beginning. The Eagles offense is very young but looks pretty talented, with DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Jason Avant, and Brent Celek, with LeSean McCoy in the backfield. It is difficult to lose your two best players over the last decade (McNabb and Westbrook) and stay consistent. The Eagles will be great in 2011 but I'm not high on them for this year; expect good statistics with inexperience mistakes for Kolb. Tough end of season schedule: last 7 games have Giants and Cowboys twice, Vikings, Texans, and at the Bears.

Key Games: Eagles on 10/3 (McNabb "homecoming"), Giants on Monday Night Football on 11/21, Vikings on 12/26.
Projection: 7-9

Washington Redskins
This is what I see: an over-the-hill quarterback that the Eagles felt fine with trading to a division rival, over-the-hill Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson, and Willie Parker as the running back committee all on their last legs, a bad offensive line, no real #2 receiver, a $100 million man on defense with all sorts of issues (Albert Haynesworth), coming off a 12-loss season. Luckily a game against the Rams ought to get them in the win column early in the season. There's a chance that Mike Shanahan can bring new life to DC (he didn't exactly leave the Broncos on top), but there are too many question marks.

Key Games: Cowboys on 9/12, Eagles on Monday Night Football on 11/15, Giants on 1/2.
Projection: 5-11

does anybody want to make the playoffs?

The San Diego Padres have led the National League (or been within 1 game) on May 1, June 1, July 1, and August 1, boast the best bullpen and most solid rotation in the National League and are headed for the postseason.

Who wants to join them?

- Atlanta Braves just got swept in Colorado, capped by blowing a 10-1 lead yesterday.
- Cincinnati Reds blew a 10-1 lead in San Francisco, finally winning in 12 innings to avoid getting swept.
- Philadelphia Phillies just got swept (4 games) at home to the Astros. What?
- St Louis Cardinals just lost 2 of 3 in Pittsburgh.
- San Francisco Giants lost their three previous series before playing the Reds.
- Colorado Rockies lost 4 of 6 to the Dbacks and Dodgers before playing the Braves, but have moved 4 games within the Wild Card leaders.

That's not really asserting yourselves as a championship contender.

NFL Season Preview, #1: NFC West Division

I'm starting my division by division preview with the easiest division, the NFC West.

Other than Peyton Manning, no player meant more to his team than Kurt Warner for the Cardinals, or rather, there is no greater drop-off with his replacement than going from Kurt Warner to Matt Leinhart. That is the top story for the NFC West this season. Alex Smith was not worth the #1 overall pick in the 2005 draft and he never will be great, but sadly he's probably the top quarterback in this weak division. And the toughest thing for this group: their out of division schedule includes tough divisions NFC South and AFC West.

San Francisco 49ers
No team was happier to see Warner retire than the 49ers. I'm a believer in Mike Singletary and I love what he has done with this team. Frank Gore leads a solid ground game, Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree lead an average receiving corp. The defense obliterated bad teams last year, and they will see several more this season. They ought to sweep the division. Alex Smith keeps the 49ers outside of the elite group of teams. They have an easy home schedule, but they play the Falcons, Packers, and Chargers all on the road.

Key Games: Saints on Monday Night 9/20, @ Chargers on Thursday 12/12.
Projection: 12-4

Seattle Seahawks
The biggest thing the Seahawks have going for them is a big home field advantage. Qwest Field is great and it's a long plane ride for the Giants, Chiefs, Panthers, Falcons, and Rams. Other than that, the 'Hawks have a weak offensive line with 1st round draft pick left tackle Russell Okung already hobbling on a bad ankle. The quarterback is old and injury prone, the running backs and wide receivers are unimpressive. Couple that with a bottom-10 defense and this will be a hard 16 games. Pete Carroll will add some excitement until they get blown out at home to the 49ers in Week 1.

Key Games: Falcons on 12/19.
Projection: 5-11.

Arizona Cardinals
It's not just future Hall of Famer Kurt Warner the Cardinals lost, also receiver Anquan Boldin, and key defensive players Dansby and Antrel Rolle. Matt Leinhart is a poor NFL quarterback and backup Derek Anderson ain't any better. Larry Fitzgerald is an elite receiver but there is no Boldin to pull defenses away and Kurt Warner isn't throwing to him, and he is already dealing with a bad knee. The defense gave up 90 points in their last two games. And along with all that, they have a tough, division-winner schedule that includes road games in Atlanta, San Diego, Minnesota, and the Super Bowl champ Saints and Cowboys coming into town.

Key Games: 49ers on Monday Night 11/29.
Projection: 5-11

St Louis Rams
This team is like a 16 year old girl who was just handed the keys of the Jaguar for a drive on the Audubon: it's destined for failure. And it's more like the brakes are failing and the steering is out of alignment. Rookie Sam Bradford, who had two significant shoulder injuries a year ago, will be under center behind a terrible offensive line, with no quality receivers to throw to, and a terrible defense. Steven Jackson is a star, but he has taken a beating and has had injury concerns in the past. They will probably win a game, but not many more.

Key Games: Seahawks on 10/3, @ Lions on 10/10, @ Bucs on 10/24.
Projection: 1-15

looking ahead to October

My preseason pick for the World Series was Yankees and Phillies. Yeah, no surprise, Repeat of last season. In the first half the Phillies were struggling in all facets, including wins. At the All Star break, The Phillies looked totally dead and I changed my pick to the Braves. However, many things changed when the Phils picked up Roy Oswalt. They've finally turned it on this month and are winning games.

San Diego Padres have been THE best story of the year in baseball. I think I expected them to lose 100 games and they will come close to winning 100 games. They have the most solid bullpen in baseball and one of the most solid, unsplendid but solid, starting rotations in the National League. And somehow they have hit enough to win games. Just so you know, I've been a believer in the Padres since May. Adrian Gonzalez deserves attention in the MVP discussion.

Atlanta Braves are still winning and probably won't fall out of first place in the division. Braves are solid just about everywhere. While I don't expect Derek Lee to be five years younger all of a sudden with a Braves jersey on, it will only help to have him on the team in the absence of Chipper Jones. Especially as a leader. Tim Hudson is an ace and a big game pitcher.

I listen to a lot of sports radio, and ESPN's Colin Cowherd totally rips the Reds everyday. They have a losing record against every good National League team. The Cardinals have the best 1-2 combo in the NL, Adam Wainwright (who will win the Cy Young award in the National League) and Chris Carpenter, along with the game's best hitter (Albert Pujols), and recently swept the Reds. And manager Tony La Russa. Hey Colin, I would rather have a lead in the division than Pujols, Wainwright and Carpenter and La Russa and not make the playoffs. Reds will be playing in October.


The Phillies are going back to the World Series. Any team with baseball's two Roys (Halladay and Oswalt) along with almost-ace Cole Hamels as a #3, with Utley, Howard (who's coming back), Rollins, Polanco, and Werth for support, with playoff success experience, will win the National League this year. The Achilles Heal is the bullpen; I don't trust Brad Lidge. But even if that costs them a game, there is enough here to win 7 other games.

And one piece on the Yankees: the most important player on the Yankees the rest of the way is Andy Pettitte. I think Andy Pettitte will be back for the playoffs. He has been hurt and has had a couple setbacks, so it is not a certainty. However, if Pettitte is unable to pitch in the playoffs (or obviously if something crazy happens to CC), the Yankees will NOT win the World Series. That's right, coming from me, a big Yankees fan. Phil Hughes will probably go to the bullpen, and I do NOT trust Javier Vazquez and AJ Burnett. If Pettitte does not come back, then not getting Cliff Lee during trading season will cost the Yankees a championship.

If Pettitte is a go, the Yankees will win the World Series. But if he can't, the Phillies will be champions.

a lot to look forward to

The AFC is going to be a great race this season. The playoffs include four division winners and two Wild Card teams. The Chargers probably won't be as great as they've been the last few years, but they are still way ahead of the Chiefs, Broncos, and Raiders so count on them. And Peyton Manning's Colts are the surest bet for 12 wins a season that we've ever seen.

That leaves four spots up for grabs. As I am preparing for the season and going through the teams and schedules to make my predictions, I am amazed at the strength of the league. Injuries are unfortunately bound to frustrate some team's hopes. But the Patriots, Jets, Dolphins, Bengals, Ravens, Steelers, Titans, and Texans are all very legitimate playoff candidates. How exciting for football fans!

The others: Jaguars and Broncos don't have great teams but were playoff bound until the final week a year ago. Chiefs and Raiders have made lots of changes and are ready to display big improvement. You can probably put those four teams in the mix too at this point.

You can forget about the Browns and Bills, who are struggling and are way behind the rest of the conference. Compare that to the NFC with the Rams, Lions, Bucs, Seahawks, Cardinals, and Redskins (two bad teams versus six bad teams).

NFL Expectations, 2010 Edition

The most popular sport in America is the NFL, by far. It is almost September, which means the season is super close to starting. I liked how I did this for the baseball season so I'll do the same for the NFL teams.

The NFL prides itself on parity. Because of teams like the Atlanta Falcons and Miami Dolphins of the recent past, every team starts with a chance of making the playoffs and competing for the Super Bowl so optimism flows freely.

So the dream of every team is to win the Super Bowl, right? And that means that the season was a failure and utter disappointment for the other 31 teams who don't? Not really. Teams are at different places in their development. The Rams won 1 game last year and have a rookie quarterback running the show, and the Lions and Bucs won 2 or 3 and have a 2nd-year QB under center. Survival will be a success.

Here are realistic goals that can produce a successful season for each team, ranked in order of prestige. In January and February, look back on these benchmarks to get a realistic picture on the success or failure of your team. I would also like to point out that it is possible for teams to surpass these expectations. Basically, this benchmarks complete the statement: "If this team ______ then the season was successful. Anything less is a failure."

WIN SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONSHIP
Ravens, Cowboys, Colts, Vikings, Patriots, Jets, Chargers

WIN CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP
Falcons, Packers, Saints, Steelers

WIN A PLAYOFF GAME
Bengals, Giants, 49ers

MAKE THE PLAYOFFS
Cardinals, Panthers, Texans, Jaguars, Dolphins, Eagles, Redskins, Titans

GETS 8 WINS (.500)
Bills, Bears, Broncos, Raiders, Seahawks

GETS 6 WINS (RESPECTABILITY)
Browns, Lions, Chiefs, Rams, Buccaneers

NFL Power Report, training camp edition

The dog days of summer are here, which means baseball season has been going on forever and preseason football games are getting better TV ratings than Red Sox vs. Yankees rivalry games.

The NFL has turned into a pass-happy league where quarterbacks are king. Here is a quick ranking of the NFL starting quarterbacks. You will notice that there is a strong correlation between teams with a top-level quarterback and therefore a great team, compared to teams that are weak in that position and therefore near the bottom.

Elite: Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady
Great: Tony Romo, Matt Schaub, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers
Good Enough: Brett Favre, Joe Flacco, Eli Manning, Ben Rothlisberger, Carson Palmer, Donovan McNabb, Jay Cutler
Average: Matt Ryan, Kevin Kolb, Vince Young, Jason Campbell, David Garrard
Below Average: Mark Sanchez, Alex Smith, Chad Henne, Matt Cassell, Matt Hasselback, Kyle Orton, Matt Moore
Liability: Matt Leinhart, Jake Delhomme, Matthew Stafford, Josh Freeman, Sam Bradford, Trent Edwards

Before I make my season and Super Bowl predictions, here is a quick team preview Power Report.

1. Colts. You won't find many people who have a different team at #1. Peyton Manning is as automatic in the regular season as any player in history. Last year we saw Pierre Garcon and BYU alumn Austin Collie blossom. The defense is stingy.

2. Saints. Drew Brees had one of the greatest seasons a quarterback has ever had last year, no question. There are so many weapons on offense. The defense has playmakers that were very lucky with turnovers and touchdowns, and I don't think they will be as lucky.

3. Cowboys. Where is the weakness? Romo is probably at the top of the second tier of quarterbacks and has lots of weapons to throw to and to hand off. The defense was a lockdown at the end of last season. Romo got the playoff monkey off his back and they are in good shape to make a run at a hometown Super Bowl.

4. Chargers. For such a quiet team that you don't hear anything about, Chargers won 13 games last year and are in position for close to the same. Vincent Jackson is suspended for a few games, but Philip Rivers has plenty of other targets. The Chargers got rid of LT (one season too late), and they they will be improved with rookie Ryan Matthews, who can also help Darren Sproles stay fresh and explosive.

5. Ravens. Anquan Boldin should be happy in Baltimore, and that is good news for Flacco and the Ravens. Taking the attention off Ray Rice will help him stay at the top of his game. The biggest question mark for the Ravens is the secondary that is dealing with injuries, especially star Ed Reed.

6. Packers. In the second half of the season Green Bay showed that they can finally protect Aaron Rodgers, so if that continues then the Packers should improve from their 11 wins last year. The Packers gave up 51 points to the Cardinals in the playoffs, three weeks after allowing 37 to the Steelers.

7. Patriots. Jets and Dolphins make all the noise, but Tom Brady is still in New England and that makes all the difference. Patriots finally showed that you can't continue to lose stars on defense and still be a strong unit. Last year was a bad year for Belichek, this will be an ultimate test for him, whether he can turn the defense into winners or fall apart like last year.

8. Bengals. No longer the Bungles, Cincinnati went undefeated in the division last year and added T.O. The defense was top 10 last year. Good defense, good quarterback, good receivers, good running back.

9. Jets. Mark Sanchez was one of the worst quarterbacks in the regular season but he kept his head together and performed well in the playoffs. I do not like the way the Jets unloaded team lead rusher Thomas Jones and Leon Washington and added an over-the-hill LaDamian Tomlinson. Too much depends on Shonn Greene. The Revis situation is ugly, and it seems unlikely that he will start Week 1. Their early season schedule is Ravens, Patriots, and at Miami. Still, they appear to be everyone else's favorite to win the division and make noise in the playoffs again.

10. Falcons. I haven't heard much news from Atlanta, but the Falcons should be able to improve on their 9 wins from last year with all the talent they have on offense. They were hit with the injury bug a lot last year so if fortunes are better, with Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez and Michael Turner, Matt Ryan will have a solid year.

11. Vikings. This is probably low compared to where most people are placing them. But their head is soon-to-be 41 year old Brett Favre with a bad ankle. If not him, then Tavaris Jackson. The defense is really strong and Adrian Peterson is one of the best running backs in the league. But he does have fumbling problems and they lost veteran backup Chester Taylor, so I see a little drop off.

12. Giants. They started 5-0 last year and looked solid before falling apart defensively. I think they addressed the defense pretty well in the draft. The young receivers all have a lot of good potential, and if the Giants can find a ground game again they should contend for a playoff spot.

13. Texans. Schaub and Andre Johnson is the best air connection in the NFL. The Texans got hit with a lot of bad luck last year or they could have won 3 more games. They had no running game last year, so they will need to one or more of Steve Slaton, rookie Ben Tate, Ryan Moats, or Arian Foster to succeed.

14. Dolphins. I believe in Chad Henne, and he can only get better with a new target like Brandon Marshall. We might not see a lot of Wildcat formation this year, but Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams should lead one of the top ground games again.

15. 49ers. Kurt Warner's retirement must have seemed like Christmas to the people in San Francisco. This team is not great and Alex Smith hasn't proved that his #1 pick was a wise one, but the 49ers have been building a good team for a decade now and this is the time to bust out as the rest of the division has fallen apart.

16. Eagles. Westbrook and McNabb are long gone, so Andy Reid is depending on young guys Kevin Kolb and LeSean McCoy to get the offense moving. Kolb has seen his top two targets DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin get carted off the field this month so those are some concerns to keep an eye on. The Eagles could do nothing on offense against the Cowboys last year.

17. Titans. Vince Young might not be a proficient passer, but he is a winner. His career record as a starter is 32-16 (30-2 in college). Chris Johnson is my favorite running back in football and I hope the heavy load he carried last year doesn't slow him down this year. And they have added some receivers to help those two. Defensively, they have lost their two stars the last two years (Haynesworth and Vanden Bosch) so it remains to be seen whether they can stop anyone.

18. Steelers. This is a different team without Big Ben under center. They are also without their top receiver from last year Santonio Holmes. The first four games with Byron Leftwich under center are against the Falcons, at Tennessee, at Tampa Bay, and the Ravens. Hopefully for Pittsburgh, Troy Polomalu can stay healthy; if so, this defense is one of the best. Last year without him lost to the Chiefs, Raiders, Bears, and Browns.

19. Panthers. Carolina could have saved their season had they cut ties with Jake Delhomme before he put them in a hole too deep to get out of. I really liked what I saw with Matt Moore last year. I don't think he's a long-term solution, but he should fit nicely in preparation for Jimmy Clausen to take over next year perhaps. Former elite receiver Steve Smith broke his arm this offseason but he says he will be ready for Week 1. The Panthers lost their defensive leader Julius Peppers, so if no one steps up their pass defense will be a bit softer.

20. Raiders. The difference between the Raiders with JaMarcus Russell and anybody else is night and day. Jason Campbell is an average NFL quarterback but with him Oakland is a playoff contender. The Raiders have Darren McFadden and Michael Bush at running back, and one or both are capable of breaking out.

21. Cardinals. The difference between Kurt Warner and Matt Leinhart is night and day, too. Leinhart hasn't really had a chance to prove himself yet, and he may play well enough. The Cards lost Boldin, but they still have Larry Fitzgerald and Steven Breaston, and Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower will provide an average running game. The defense isn't very good.

22. Jaguars. I like Maurice Jones-Drew, but he has carried quite a load and there is no one else to take away the attention of the defense from him. David Garrard got picked for the Pro Bowl last year, but he has never been an above average QB.

23. Bears. Running back Matt Forte went from stud to dud and Jake Cutler became a turnover machine. Devin Hester was an elite kick returner but is not a dependable receiver. The defense gained a couple Pro Bowlers in Julius Peppers and Brian Urlacher, who missed all of last season with an injury, so that will help.

24. Chiefs. KC had a miserable season but made some good moves. Jamaal Charles became a star last season, and then they picked up 1400 yard gainer Thomas Jones as a compliment. They drafted Eric Berry, who is a star and leader on defense, and then Dexter McCluster, who's an electric playmaker on offense or special teams. Hiring Charlie Weis and Romeo Crenell as coordinators will bring improvement and stability to a team that I believe lost both right before the beginning of last season.

25. Lions. They have some pieces now on offense with Stafford, Megatron Calvin Johnson, and rookie Jahvid Best, and the defense picked up monster Ndamukong Suh, so the Lions have a little more bite.

26. Redskins. The group of running backs in D.C. would be unstoppable in 2005; unfortunately this five years later. McNabb has missed games with injuries in 4 of last 5 seasons, and the Redskins don't have a great offensive line. They don't have a #2 receiver. Their $100 million man on defense is disgruntled and out of shape. Shanahan's team is an intriguing group, but bound to disappoint.

27. Seahawks. My condolences to Seahawk fans from 2006, where recently the referee admitted he blew a couple calls that cost Seatle the Super Bowl win. There is nothing I particularly like about this team. They will draft a quarterback in the first round next season with a very high pick.

28. Bills. They still don't have a quarterback and they lost their top receiver. The team gets no support from their city. They should have a decent defense and ground game.

29. Broncos. The top 2 running backs are hurt, their best offensive player (Brandon Marshall) is gone, and their quarterbacks are Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow. Yikes! Defensively, their best player is also hurt, along with one or two other linebackers, so this team won't be able to stop anyone.

30. Buccaneers. Josh Freeman is the quarterback and I have a hard time naming one other player on the team. They might be good in 2012.

31. Browns. Jake Delhomme went 4-8 with a talented Carolina Panthers last year (and his backup went 4-1). Now Delhomme is the head man in Cleveland? What can he do with that team?

32. Rams. This is by far the worst team in the NFL. A rookie quarterback with lots of recent injuries and no receivers of note and a real weak offensive line, with the only weapon being Steven Jackson, a horse who has been overused and abused the last few seasons, one of the weakest defenses last year... three wins would be an accomplishment.

My thoughts on 600 and ARod

Alex Rodriguez hit home run #600 this week, a feat accomplished by only 6 other players in history. Everybody has an opinion on Alex Rodriguez. Here is mine:

-The man can flat-out hit. He's one of the greatest hitters of all time. He will likely break Hank Aaron and Barry Bond's home run records and probably some other ones, too (like the RBI record). And all this not as an outfielder or first-baseman, but shortstop and 3rd baseman.

-He signed a 10 year, $252 million contract to play for the Texas Rangers, followed by a 10 year $275 million contract with the Yankees. This is where many fans get turned off ARod. But how many other people on planet earth are worth half a billion dollars? Not many. You can't blame him for taking money offered to him. He never whined or held-out before that. He did his best in Seattle, but if they can't win with himself, Griffey, Edgar Martinez, Randy Johnson et al, can you blame him for wanting to go somewhere else? You can't call it greed; instead, call the Rangers and Yankees stupid over-spenders.

-ARod had a chance to be easily the greatest shortstop in the game's history. No one will debate that. But he sold out to join the Yankees and move over to third base. This is a strangely similar story to LeBron James joining DeWayne Wade in Miami. And this wasn't at the end of his career when his skills were deteriorating; this was at the peak of his career. He will never be the greatest shortstop of all time or the greatest third baseman of all time now.

-The man tested positive and admitted to using steroids over a 3 year period (2001-03). This is where it gets really hairy. He says it was because of an "enormous pressure to perform." I can understand that. As we can now see, plenty of other players around him were doing it, too. It was part of the game for at least 15 years. And he probably felt an obligation to the Texas Rangers since they signed him to the biggest contract in sports history. It was dumb and against the rules, but that's the game. He never did anything worthy of getting suspended or lying to Congress.

All you purists out there: the Speed Limit is 50. Do you go 55 or 60? Why? Because everybody else is doing it and you won't get disciplined if you only break the rules by 5-10 mph. So you want his records scratched because of something he did almost 10 years ago that weren't considered outrageous at the time? That's the way it was. They've made some changes to the rules, created punishments. The punishment has been decided by league officials, a 50 game suspension. Why do you think you can create your own punishments, like banning him from Hall of Fame consideration? That's silly. The discipline is what it is. You can't punish someone for something done before the punishment was affixed.

How can you determine the effect of steroids on his numbers? How many home runs are a result from being juiced? It's really impossible to say. However, compare him to Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire, and Barry Bonds. Sosa went from 36-40-36 home runs batting .265 to 66-63-50-64 batting .320. McGwire went from 30-50 home runs to 70 and 65 and looked like the Incredible Hulk. Bonds went from a sure-fire Hall of Famer who never hit more than 46 home runs to 72 out of the blue. Alex Rodriguez has remained remarkably consistent for his whole career. There was no spike in production. Its possible that the steroids didn't even have a significant impact on him. It's impossible to know.

-His personal life leaves much to be desired. There were the pictures of him kissing a mirror. While married many other women (mostly strippers, dancers and prostitutes) claimed he had sex with them on multiple occasions. While these may just be nobodys trying to make news, where there's lots of smoke there is usually fire. Madonna seemed to be in the picture too, though she claims they were just "friends". For a person under one of media's largest microscopes he does a lot of dumb things.

-He's always in the middle of controversy, pissing off opponents by distracting them on pop-flies, slapping at their mitts, running across the mound (the last of which I find insignificant).

-He's not a very good person, I agree. However, many super stars in most sports have that reputation too.

-He's a Yankee now, so I'll cheer for him. He has won games for us, including a World Series championship. I don't love him, I won't buy his jersey, but I'll cheer when he gets hits and wish him success.

Midseason Power Report

I love the All Star Game. It was fun to see the never-ending pregame program, see my team's players get in the game, see power pitching at its finest, and then see the game fall apart at the end. I can't believe ARod didn't get a chance to bat in the 9th inning. And that there was no one left to pinch run for David Ortiz.

My wife and I went to a new sports bar/restaurant and ate some absolutely awesome buffalo wings. It was a new place that had a lot of older folks, not the rowdy young people that usually spice up watching a game, but it was quiet and enjoyable. My wife got tired so I went home and watched it on a Chinese channel online. Better than Buck and McCarver.


Power Report

1. Yankees. Bombers are on pace for 103 wins, they'll top 105. Considering how slow Teixeira, ARod, and Vazquez started, and Joba pitching awful in 8th innings, things can get better. Three starting pitchers have 11+ wins at the Break. The Yankees don't need to make any trades, but they'll probably get a pitcher anyway. If so, Hughes goes to the bullpen.

2. Rays. It was nice seeing David Price pitch, I don't get many chances to see him. Sweeping the Red Sox propels them back up to the two spot, and a series in New York could help their cause even more.

3. Braves. Best record in the National League. Tim Hudson shut down the Mets, outplayed Strasburg, and cruised past the Rays. Congrats to Brian McCann winning the All Star Game.

4. Rangers. What can you say when a first-place team gets a new ace and then loses four in a row at home to the Orioles? Elvis Andrus, what was he doing running past 2nd base in the ASG?

5. White Sox. 8 wins in a row, they have 25 wins in the last 30 games to cruise into first place. Carlos Quentin, Miguel Cabrera, and Brandon Boesch are leading the way.

6. Tigers. It was really fun seeing Jose Valverde strike out the side in the All Star Game.

7. Padres. San Diego has stayed in first place the entire first half. They still have the best team ERA in baseball. Petco Park helps.

8. Red Sox. David Ortiz has square wheels. Fortunately, he doesn't need to run in the Home Run Derby. Players are going to start coming back, but adding Youkilis and Beltre to the mix of hurting players is sad. Francona has done an incredible job getting this team to win but the Rays and Yankees are looking really good and really healthy, too.

9. Reds. Yes the Reds got swept by the Phillies, but how much can you fault them? Three of the four games were on walk-off hits in extra innings.

10. Rockies. It is hard to comprehend that Ubaldo Jimenez has 15 wins at the All Star break. With a possible 14-15 more starts, 23-25 wins is well in reach. Depending on avoiding the DL, I predict 23.

11. Dodgers. I was glad to see my Taiwanese friend Hong-Chih Kuo get into the game, but that throw over first base made me laugh every replay. Poor guy.

12. Phillies. Everyone expects the Phils to make a run in the second half but I'm not quite so sure.

13. Mets. 0-3-1 in last four series. I think this is a .500 team the rest of the way.

14. Cardinals. Wainwright, Carpenter, and Jaime Garcia are a dominant rotation but the bullpen has been anything but a sure thing. It's weird because they have the fewest blown saves in the National League, but all of them have been in pretty dramatic fashion. Pujols and Holliday have been steady but not breaking out like one would expect them to.

15. Twins. Morneau is hurt and Mauer is hitting only .233 over the last month. The pitching, as always, is good not great. With the resurgence of the White Sox and the steadiness of the Tigers, Twins will really have to pull out another miracle to make it to October.

16. Angels. Only 3 games over .500 and their biggest rival upgraded their starting rotation. I thought they would succeed because of Mike Soscia, but the Angels haven't woken up this whole season. Lucky for them they won't fall lower than 2nd with the Athletics and Mariners in the division.

17. Giants. Buster Posey looks to be the slugger that the Giants have been lacking. The rookie catcher is on fire. As for everyone else, Lincecum has not been his dominant self, Matt Cain has pitched poorly over the last month, and Pablo Sandoval appears to have been a one-hit wonder.

18. Florida Marlins. Josh Johnson is a pitcher I hope I can see more often. It was also nice to see Hanley Ramirez mashing in the Home Run Derby.

19. Blue Jays. For a team that's not very good, Jays had a lot of All Stars get in the game.

20. Royals. Most hits and best team batting average. Too bad it couldn't help Zach Greinke early in the season. Royals are playing like a .500 team lately.

21. Nationals. Finally scored some runs for Strasburg. Its too bad he got left in double- and triple-A so long and his season will end near Labor Day. I'll enjoy it the rest of the way.

22. Athletics. I don't like the A's and I don't think they are very good. The end.

23. Cubs. Marlon Byrd, the Cubs representative, may have saved the game by gunning out Ortiz at second. About the regular season: Cubs are a depressing mess. No wonder Milton Bradley hated it here.

24. Brewers. Ace Gallardo is out, Fielder is likely trade-bait, and Trevor Hoffman is still giving up gopher balls. Ryan Braun made a real nice catch last night.

25. Astros. I don't want to let go of the possibility of a nice run in the second half like they usually manage but really, there isn't much to like about the Astros. Oswalt should be traded, Berkman should too but nobody will want him. On a better note: I went to Minute Maid Park last month and had a good time.

26. Mariners. Only team in the AL to have scored less than 300 runs (Red Sox are closing in on 500). There's only so much that Felix Hernandez can do.

27. Diamondbacks. They may have gotten the best of Mariano Rivera in 2001, but who's laughing now? Bullpen ERA: 6.59.

28. Orioles. Congrats on their first road 4-game sweep in 15 years.

29. Indians. Who's in worse shape, the Cavs, Browns, or Indians?

30. Pirates. Run differential of -194, 52 runs worse than the Orioles. Will we ever see this team improve?

Baseball loses a couple legends

As a Yankees fan and fan of all of baseball, I must mention briefly the passing of two American icons this week: George Steinbrenner, The Boss, and Bob Sheppard, The Voice. Steinbrenner is one of the most controversial figures in sports over the last 30 years, but he also did more for his team than any other owner in sports. He bought the Yankees in 1973 for around 10 million dollars, 37 years later that organization is worth billions. There is no substitute for winning, and love him or hate him, nobody put their team in a better position to win than King George. What other team in sports are fans/ownership/players more disappointed in a second place finish than the Yankees? No owner is more demanding than Steinbrenner and appropriately no team wins more than his.

In main message in Field of Dreams is "if you build it, they will come." George Steinbrenner built great teams and wins came. Win lots of games and fans will come. His example of ownership is something most teams should note: if your team has a weakness, go fix it. Result: 7 championships during his time. You may say that The Boss was bad for baseball, but then remember that almost every stadium that the Yankees play in (on the road) sells out.

I've been a Yankees fan for 15 years so I missed most of the crazy Steinbrenner years. But there's a reason that last season's World Series championship was dedicated to The Boss.

The other person was no less memorable than Mr Stenbrenner. Who can forget that great voice declaring, "Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Yankees Stadium." "May I have your attention. Now batting for the New York Yankees, num-ba two, Derek Jee-tah, num-ba two." Elegance, eloquence, gentleness, dignity, and precision best describe Bob Sheppard, the long time public announcer for Yankees Stadium. Has anyone had such a beautiful command of the English language? I really miss hearing his voice coming through the radio during games, but I'm glad that we get a little taste with Derek Jeter's name continuing to be used by recording of Sheppard's voice. Not only was he an amazing speaker, but he was an incredible human being who was loved by all who ever came across him. While unfortunately I never had the opportunity to meet him, I'm grateful that I was able to visit Yankees Stadium, where hearing his voice was itself as great an experience as seeing the game.

A couple links:
Announcing his last game
a tribute