NFL Season Preview, #7: AFC South

The Colts are coming off a 16-win season (including the playoffs). History says that the Super Bowl loser will have an off year, and while the Titans and Texans are trying to climb, the Colts have #18 and nobody else does.

Indianapolis Colts
As long as Peyton Manning is on the field, the Colts will always be the favorites. He is the greatest regular season quarterback of all-time, no question. When it comes to the rest of the team, there isn't a lot to say. They aren't going to run the ball much at all with Joseph Addai and Donald Brown. They have lots of receivers: Wayne, Dallas Clark, Garcon, Collie the Cougar, Anthony Gonzalez (and Addai). They will probably repeat as the #32 running team in the NFL but it doesn't seem to matter. The defense is not great, but they have playmakers (Bob Sanders, Robert Mathis, Gary Brackett). The Colts are not a deep team, I think it's been 5 years since they won a single preseason game, and if (heaven forbid) anything ever happens to Peyton this is a 5 win team. But he's been remarkably durable his whole career so 11+ wins seems likely once again. They have a REALLY tough stretch after their bye week: Texans, at Philadelphia, Bengals, at New England, Chargers, Cowboys, at Tennessee. So even if they start 6-0 they aren't out of the clear. Last year the Colts were really lucky. They should have lost at least 4 other games. Don't expect 13 wins this year.

Key Games:
- Giants on 9/19
- Texans on Monday Night Football 11/1
- @ Patriots on 11/21
- Chargers on 11/28
- @ Titans on Thursday 12/9
Projection: 11-5

Tennessee Titans
Chris Johnson is my favorite player in the NFL. One reason he is so good is that his style is not to run through people and drag people like Adrian Peterson, but to run around them with his blazing speed. He had a crazy number of touches (rushes plus receptions) but he's also probably too young to break down. He is the focal point of the Titans offense; there is no 40 year old legend at quarterback who expects to throw forty times a game. Vince Young never gets big numbers. His quarterback statistics are middle of the road. But he holds a 66% winning percentage and has leadership like an elite quarterback, and has demonstrated capability to lead a comeback with his arm (as well as his legs). The defense was very bad last year (59 points allowed to Patriots in the snow), and they lost Kyle Vanden Bosch, so there is some work to do. This is a defense-minded team so they should be able to improve. Jeff Fisher is the best coach in the NFL without a championship. If they start liked they finished last year the Titans will be in the playoff hunt. Titans have five divisional games in their last six weeks.

Key Games:
- Steelers on 9/19
- @ Jaguars on Monday Night Football on 10/18
- @ Dolphins on 11/14
- @ Texans on 11/28
- Colts on Thursday 12/9
- Texans on 12/19
- @ Colts on 1/2
Projection: 10-6

Houston Texans
If the Texans get a dependable ground game they could have the best offense in the AFC. That was Slaton two years ago, and Arian Foster could do that now. Andre Johnson and Matt Schaub are the best QB to WR connection in the league. The defense is suspect, especially without defensive rookie of the year Brian Cushing suspended for the beginning of the season. They are starting a rookie first rounder at cornerback against Peyton Manning. Mario Williams has done a great job supporting his #1 draft pick status; he's a stud. The Texans' schedule is really difficult, so even if they have one of the best teams in the AFC they probably won't win 10 games and make the playoffs (especially in those first four weeks without Cushing). But they could really assert themselves as a championship contender if they can beat the Colts in Week 1; it's really a must win game.

Key Games:
- Colts on 9/12
- @ Colts on Monday Night Football 11/1
- @ Jets on 11/21
- Titans on 11/28
- Ravens on Monday Night Football on 12/13
- @ Titans on 12/19
Projection: 9-7

Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags were in the drivers' seat to the playoffs a year ago at 7-5 until they lost their last four games. Maurice Jones-Drew is one of the best all-purpose running backs in the league, a touchdown machine and close to 1400 yards last season. David Garrard finally got a good receiver in Mike Sims-Walker, but he disappeared in the second half of the season. The defense had by far the fewest sacks in the NFL, and if you can't get pressure on Manning and Schaub then you are in trouble. The Jags are a boring team in a town that they will likely leave soon.

Key Games:
- Colts on 10/3
- Titans on Monday Night Football on 10/18
- Texans on 11/14
- @ Titans on 12/5
- @ Colts on 12/19
- @ Texans on 1/2
Projection: 5-11