NFL Season Preview, #6: AFC East

One of the strongest and most intriguing divisions in the league and one of my favorites is the AFC East, where the Jets are calling themselves future champions, Dolphins made the best trade of the offseason, and the Patriots have Tom Brady and Bill Belichek.

New England Patriots
Brady is a couple years clear of his injury and has been incredible this preseason, completing 78% of his passes. Randy Moss is a head case and Wes Welker is making an incredibly fast recovery from his knee injury, but I am really excited about the hometown New England Patriots this year. They won't use the running game much, but Fred Taylor looks like he can be the productive player he's been across his career. The defense is certainly young and doesn't have much star power, but they've been with Belichek for a year now and should be improved. They don't have a pass rush, and that's an issue in the NFL. Tom Brady is the best quarterback in the division, and that is a huge advantage over teams with Mark Sanchez, Chad Henne, and Trent Edwards. The early schedule is tough with road games in Miami and New York, along with hosting the Bengals in Week 1, and after the bye they play the Ravens, at San Diego, and then the Minnesota Favres. Don't worry if they fall a couple games behind because they could easily win their last 6 games.

Key Games:
- @ Jets on 9/19
- Ravens on 10/17
- @ Chargers on 10/24
- Colts on 11/21
- Dolphins on 1/2
Projection: 11-5

Miami Dolphins
Here's what I like: Coach Sparano, Chad Henne, Brandon Marshall, Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. I think the defense could be pretty good with Mike Nolan as the new D-coordinator, newcomers Karlos Dansby and 7 of their 8 draft choices replacing the old Jason Taylor, Joey Porter and Jason Ferguson. But the offense is what I really like: a strong ground game and a blooming Chad Henne with Brandon Marshall to throw at. There won't be much need for the Wildcat formation.

Key Games:
- Jets on 9/26
- Patriots on Monday Night Football on 10/4
- @ Jets on 12/12
- @ Patriots 1/2

Projection: 10-6

New York Jets
Just to remind people on the Jets' bandwagon: the Jets made the playoffs after the Colts quit playing and the Bengals rested their entire team, and then made it to the AFC Championship game because the Bengals missed two field goals and the Chargers missed three. This team was awful most of last year.
The best news in the northeast this month was that Darelle Revis signed a new contract with the Jets and he'll be on the field starting in Week 1. The Jets picked up LT, which has a lot of name recognition, but he was the workhorse for the league's 31st-ranked rushing game, so going to the league's best rushing team... it's hard to see a big impact. I don't feel great about Shonn Greene for 16 weeks but the Jets were big on him enough to drop Thomas Jones. For the Jets to be as good as they think they will, Mark Sanchez will have to become a good quarterback and I don't think he is ready to make a huge jump from 12 TDs/ 20 INTS, NFL's 31st ranked passing game. They will be tested right away against the Ravens, Patriots, and in Miami. The defense is good enough to keep them close in every game.

Key Games:
- Ravens on 9/13
- Patriots on 9/19
- @ Dolphins on 9/26
- @ Patriots on 12/6

Projection: 9-7

Buffalo Bills
The offense will be terrible. The defense won't be good enough. They have a bunch of good running backs behind a bad offensive line. The other three teams in the division are miles ahead. The quarterbacking is one of the NFL's worst. The hometown is not supportive and they will have to play some home games in Toronto. They'll start 0-4. I'm not optimistic about the Bills and I don't want to write anything more.

Key Games:
- Bears on 11/7
- Lions on 11/14
- Browns on 12/12

Projection: 3-13