2010 Season Preview, #4: NFC South

The NFC South has been a division of equal opportunity as it has not had a repeat champion since the realignment in 2002, or even had any team make the playoffs two years in a row. The Super Bowl Champion Saints have a great chance to break that trend. Most writers and talking heads are picking a dropoff for no other reason than a honeymoon swoon, and picking the Falcons will win the division. There is another reason that's a good possibility.

The NFC South matches up this season with the strong AFC North, and while they play the same teams there are some big scheduling differences worth noting that favor the Falcons. The four AFC North teams are the Ravens, Bengals, Steelers, and Browns. The Falcons get the Bengals and Ravens at home, and are lucky enough to travel to Pittsburgh in Week 1 where Big Ben will not play. The Saints play the Bengals and Ravens on the road and get the Steelers in Week 8 when Big Ben is back. The Saints and Falcons also both play the 49ers; Falcons get them at home and Saints get them in San Francisco. The Saints better not take a honeymoon swoon or the streak of playoff inconsistency in the division may continue.

New Orleans Saints
The offense is as good as ever. Everyone is back and everybody seems to be healthy. Drew Brees had one of the greatest seasons ever. "He can't do it again," some may say, but I don't see him falling off a cliff, either. Especially with Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush, Marques Colston, Robert Meacham, Devery Henderson, etc. to share the ball with. The defense was remarkably opportunistic last year, their 8 defensive touchdowns were twice any other team. Gregg Williams is still in town, so they should still be good. I haven't heard of any big departures. Schedule is very tough: they play the Vikings, 49ers, and Falcons right off the bat. Darren Sharper, a lead playmaker on defense, is hurt and will miss at least the first six games.

Key Games: Vikings on Thursday on 9/9, 49ers on Monday Night Football on 9/20, Falcons on 9/26, @ Cowboys on Thanksgiving, @ Falcons on Monday Night Football on 12/27.
Projection: 12-4

Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons fell back to earth after flying high in 2008, going 9-7 and missing the playoffs. Injuries hit hard, and they stayed right in the middle of the pack in about every statistic. Matt Ryan is a smart guy and a good leader, but I'm not convinced that he's a Top 10 quarterback. However, it doesn't hurt having Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez to throw to and Michael Turner to hand off to. The place I'm most concerned is the defense. Atlanta did not win any shootouts; any game they allowed over 18 points they lost. and the only close games they won were 20-17 over the awful Buccaneers and 10-7 over the Jets. Like I mentioned above, they get a huge scheduling advantage over the Saints.

Key Games: 49ers on 10/3, Packers on 11/28, Saints on Monday Night Football on 12/27.
Projection: 10-6

Carolina Panthers
The Panthers deserved a better fate last year, but the ridiculous contract extension granted to Jake Delhomme after a terrible playoff loss earned that disappointment. There is reason for optimism with Matt Moore in charge, who helped the Panthers finish strong. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart form the best backfield duo in the NFL, no question. But Steve Smith, now on the wrong side of 30, has nobody to take away double coverage defense. The defense lost leader Julius Peppers. Matt Moore won games last year, but how good is he really now that he's in charge and rookie Jimmy Clausen is looking over his shoulder? The defense won't be able to stop many people, and opposing defenses will stack the box against the rush and force Moore to beat them. If the Panthers fall behind in games (as I expect), Stewart and Williams will have to take a lesser role.

Key Games: @ Giants 9/12, Saints 11/7, Falcons 12/12.
Projection: 7-9

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs may be good in 2012 but there is too much inexperience and untapped potential here in the meantime. The passing game is remarkably raw: Josh Freeman is the quarterback with Mike Williams and Maurice Stovall are the starting receivers. The running back is Cadillac Williams, a player who has never lived up to his expectations. First round draft pick Gerald McCoy could be a star on defense but he's a lonely star now. Last season's 3 wins will be tough to pass.

Key Games: Browns on 9/12, Rams on 10/24, Lions on 12/19, Seahawks on 12/26.
Projection: 2-14