Monday, August 9, 2010

NFL Power Report, training camp edition

The dog days of summer are here, which means baseball season has been going on forever and preseason football games are getting better TV ratings than Red Sox vs. Yankees rivalry games.

The NFL has turned into a pass-happy league where quarterbacks are king. Here is a quick ranking of the NFL starting quarterbacks. You will notice that there is a strong correlation between teams with a top-level quarterback and therefore a great team, compared to teams that are weak in that position and therefore near the bottom.

Elite: Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady
Great: Tony Romo, Matt Schaub, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers
Good Enough: Brett Favre, Joe Flacco, Eli Manning, Ben Rothlisberger, Carson Palmer, Donovan McNabb, Jay Cutler
Average: Matt Ryan, Kevin Kolb, Vince Young, Jason Campbell, David Garrard
Below Average: Mark Sanchez, Alex Smith, Chad Henne, Matt Cassell, Matt Hasselback, Kyle Orton, Matt Moore
Liability: Matt Leinhart, Jake Delhomme, Matthew Stafford, Josh Freeman, Sam Bradford, Trent Edwards

Before I make my season and Super Bowl predictions, here is a quick team preview Power Report.

1. Colts. You won't find many people who have a different team at #1. Peyton Manning is as automatic in the regular season as any player in history. Last year we saw Pierre Garcon and BYU alumn Austin Collie blossom. The defense is stingy.

2. Saints. Drew Brees had one of the greatest seasons a quarterback has ever had last year, no question. There are so many weapons on offense. The defense has playmakers that were very lucky with turnovers and touchdowns, and I don't think they will be as lucky.

3. Cowboys. Where is the weakness? Romo is probably at the top of the second tier of quarterbacks and has lots of weapons to throw to and to hand off. The defense was a lockdown at the end of last season. Romo got the playoff monkey off his back and they are in good shape to make a run at a hometown Super Bowl.

4. Chargers. For such a quiet team that you don't hear anything about, Chargers won 13 games last year and are in position for close to the same. Vincent Jackson is suspended for a few games, but Philip Rivers has plenty of other targets. The Chargers got rid of LT (one season too late), and they they will be improved with rookie Ryan Matthews, who can also help Darren Sproles stay fresh and explosive.

5. Ravens. Anquan Boldin should be happy in Baltimore, and that is good news for Flacco and the Ravens. Taking the attention off Ray Rice will help him stay at the top of his game. The biggest question mark for the Ravens is the secondary that is dealing with injuries, especially star Ed Reed.

6. Packers. In the second half of the season Green Bay showed that they can finally protect Aaron Rodgers, so if that continues then the Packers should improve from their 11 wins last year. The Packers gave up 51 points to the Cardinals in the playoffs, three weeks after allowing 37 to the Steelers.

7. Patriots. Jets and Dolphins make all the noise, but Tom Brady is still in New England and that makes all the difference. Patriots finally showed that you can't continue to lose stars on defense and still be a strong unit. Last year was a bad year for Belichek, this will be an ultimate test for him, whether he can turn the defense into winners or fall apart like last year.

8. Bengals. No longer the Bungles, Cincinnati went undefeated in the division last year and added T.O. The defense was top 10 last year. Good defense, good quarterback, good receivers, good running back.

9. Jets. Mark Sanchez was one of the worst quarterbacks in the regular season but he kept his head together and performed well in the playoffs. I do not like the way the Jets unloaded team lead rusher Thomas Jones and Leon Washington and added an over-the-hill LaDamian Tomlinson. Too much depends on Shonn Greene. The Revis situation is ugly, and it seems unlikely that he will start Week 1. Their early season schedule is Ravens, Patriots, and at Miami. Still, they appear to be everyone else's favorite to win the division and make noise in the playoffs again.

10. Falcons. I haven't heard much news from Atlanta, but the Falcons should be able to improve on their 9 wins from last year with all the talent they have on offense. They were hit with the injury bug a lot last year so if fortunes are better, with Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez and Michael Turner, Matt Ryan will have a solid year.

11. Vikings. This is probably low compared to where most people are placing them. But their head is soon-to-be 41 year old Brett Favre with a bad ankle. If not him, then Tavaris Jackson. The defense is really strong and Adrian Peterson is one of the best running backs in the league. But he does have fumbling problems and they lost veteran backup Chester Taylor, so I see a little drop off.

12. Giants. They started 5-0 last year and looked solid before falling apart defensively. I think they addressed the defense pretty well in the draft. The young receivers all have a lot of good potential, and if the Giants can find a ground game again they should contend for a playoff spot.

13. Texans. Schaub and Andre Johnson is the best air connection in the NFL. The Texans got hit with a lot of bad luck last year or they could have won 3 more games. They had no running game last year, so they will need to one or more of Steve Slaton, rookie Ben Tate, Ryan Moats, or Arian Foster to succeed.

14. Dolphins. I believe in Chad Henne, and he can only get better with a new target like Brandon Marshall. We might not see a lot of Wildcat formation this year, but Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams should lead one of the top ground games again.

15. 49ers. Kurt Warner's retirement must have seemed like Christmas to the people in San Francisco. This team is not great and Alex Smith hasn't proved that his #1 pick was a wise one, but the 49ers have been building a good team for a decade now and this is the time to bust out as the rest of the division has fallen apart.

16. Eagles. Westbrook and McNabb are long gone, so Andy Reid is depending on young guys Kevin Kolb and LeSean McCoy to get the offense moving. Kolb has seen his top two targets DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin get carted off the field this month so those are some concerns to keep an eye on. The Eagles could do nothing on offense against the Cowboys last year.

17. Titans. Vince Young might not be a proficient passer, but he is a winner. His career record as a starter is 32-16 (30-2 in college). Chris Johnson is my favorite running back in football and I hope the heavy load he carried last year doesn't slow him down this year. And they have added some receivers to help those two. Defensively, they have lost their two stars the last two years (Haynesworth and Vanden Bosch) so it remains to be seen whether they can stop anyone.

18. Steelers. This is a different team without Big Ben under center. They are also without their top receiver from last year Santonio Holmes. The first four games with Byron Leftwich under center are against the Falcons, at Tennessee, at Tampa Bay, and the Ravens. Hopefully for Pittsburgh, Troy Polomalu can stay healthy; if so, this defense is one of the best. Last year without him lost to the Chiefs, Raiders, Bears, and Browns.

19. Panthers. Carolina could have saved their season had they cut ties with Jake Delhomme before he put them in a hole too deep to get out of. I really liked what I saw with Matt Moore last year. I don't think he's a long-term solution, but he should fit nicely in preparation for Jimmy Clausen to take over next year perhaps. Former elite receiver Steve Smith broke his arm this offseason but he says he will be ready for Week 1. The Panthers lost their defensive leader Julius Peppers, so if no one steps up their pass defense will be a bit softer.

20. Raiders. The difference between the Raiders with JaMarcus Russell and anybody else is night and day. Jason Campbell is an average NFL quarterback but with him Oakland is a playoff contender. The Raiders have Darren McFadden and Michael Bush at running back, and one or both are capable of breaking out.

21. Cardinals. The difference between Kurt Warner and Matt Leinhart is night and day, too. Leinhart hasn't really had a chance to prove himself yet, and he may play well enough. The Cards lost Boldin, but they still have Larry Fitzgerald and Steven Breaston, and Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower will provide an average running game. The defense isn't very good.

22. Jaguars. I like Maurice Jones-Drew, but he has carried quite a load and there is no one else to take away the attention of the defense from him. David Garrard got picked for the Pro Bowl last year, but he has never been an above average QB.

23. Bears. Running back Matt Forte went from stud to dud and Jake Cutler became a turnover machine. Devin Hester was an elite kick returner but is not a dependable receiver. The defense gained a couple Pro Bowlers in Julius Peppers and Brian Urlacher, who missed all of last season with an injury, so that will help.

24. Chiefs. KC had a miserable season but made some good moves. Jamaal Charles became a star last season, and then they picked up 1400 yard gainer Thomas Jones as a compliment. They drafted Eric Berry, who is a star and leader on defense, and then Dexter McCluster, who's an electric playmaker on offense or special teams. Hiring Charlie Weis and Romeo Crenell as coordinators will bring improvement and stability to a team that I believe lost both right before the beginning of last season.

25. Lions. They have some pieces now on offense with Stafford, Megatron Calvin Johnson, and rookie Jahvid Best, and the defense picked up monster Ndamukong Suh, so the Lions have a little more bite.

26. Redskins. The group of running backs in D.C. would be unstoppable in 2005; unfortunately this five years later. McNabb has missed games with injuries in 4 of last 5 seasons, and the Redskins don't have a great offensive line. They don't have a #2 receiver. Their $100 million man on defense is disgruntled and out of shape. Shanahan's team is an intriguing group, but bound to disappoint.

27. Seahawks. My condolences to Seahawk fans from 2006, where recently the referee admitted he blew a couple calls that cost Seatle the Super Bowl win. There is nothing I particularly like about this team. They will draft a quarterback in the first round next season with a very high pick.

28. Bills. They still don't have a quarterback and they lost their top receiver. The team gets no support from their city. They should have a decent defense and ground game.

29. Broncos. The top 2 running backs are hurt, their best offensive player (Brandon Marshall) is gone, and their quarterbacks are Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow. Yikes! Defensively, their best player is also hurt, along with one or two other linebackers, so this team won't be able to stop anyone.

30. Buccaneers. Josh Freeman is the quarterback and I have a hard time naming one other player on the team. They might be good in 2012.

31. Browns. Jake Delhomme went 4-8 with a talented Carolina Panthers last year (and his backup went 4-1). Now Delhomme is the head man in Cleveland? What can he do with that team?

32. Rams. This is by far the worst team in the NFL. A rookie quarterback with lots of recent injuries and no receivers of note and a real weak offensive line, with the only weapon being Steven Jackson, a horse who has been overused and abused the last few seasons, one of the weakest defenses last year... three wins would be an accomplishment.

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