looking ahead to October

My preseason pick for the World Series was Yankees and Phillies. Yeah, no surprise, Repeat of last season. In the first half the Phillies were struggling in all facets, including wins. At the All Star break, The Phillies looked totally dead and I changed my pick to the Braves. However, many things changed when the Phils picked up Roy Oswalt. They've finally turned it on this month and are winning games.

San Diego Padres have been THE best story of the year in baseball. I think I expected them to lose 100 games and they will come close to winning 100 games. They have the most solid bullpen in baseball and one of the most solid, unsplendid but solid, starting rotations in the National League. And somehow they have hit enough to win games. Just so you know, I've been a believer in the Padres since May. Adrian Gonzalez deserves attention in the MVP discussion.

Atlanta Braves are still winning and probably won't fall out of first place in the division. Braves are solid just about everywhere. While I don't expect Derek Lee to be five years younger all of a sudden with a Braves jersey on, it will only help to have him on the team in the absence of Chipper Jones. Especially as a leader. Tim Hudson is an ace and a big game pitcher.

I listen to a lot of sports radio, and ESPN's Colin Cowherd totally rips the Reds everyday. They have a losing record against every good National League team. The Cardinals have the best 1-2 combo in the NL, Adam Wainwright (who will win the Cy Young award in the National League) and Chris Carpenter, along with the game's best hitter (Albert Pujols), and recently swept the Reds. And manager Tony La Russa. Hey Colin, I would rather have a lead in the division than Pujols, Wainwright and Carpenter and La Russa and not make the playoffs. Reds will be playing in October.


The Phillies are going back to the World Series. Any team with baseball's two Roys (Halladay and Oswalt) along with almost-ace Cole Hamels as a #3, with Utley, Howard (who's coming back), Rollins, Polanco, and Werth for support, with playoff success experience, will win the National League this year. The Achilles Heal is the bullpen; I don't trust Brad Lidge. But even if that costs them a game, there is enough here to win 7 other games.

And one piece on the Yankees: the most important player on the Yankees the rest of the way is Andy Pettitte. I think Andy Pettitte will be back for the playoffs. He has been hurt and has had a couple setbacks, so it is not a certainty. However, if Pettitte is unable to pitch in the playoffs (or obviously if something crazy happens to CC), the Yankees will NOT win the World Series. That's right, coming from me, a big Yankees fan. Phil Hughes will probably go to the bullpen, and I do NOT trust Javier Vazquez and AJ Burnett. If Pettitte does not come back, then not getting Cliff Lee during trading season will cost the Yankees a championship.

If Pettitte is a go, the Yankees will win the World Series. But if he can't, the Phillies will be champions.