Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Week 3 Power Report

After Week 3 all of the following teams are either leading their division or share a lead (remember, division winners are playoff teams):
Redskins, Lions, Buccaneers, 49ers, Bills, Browns, Texans, and Raiders. That’s every division. Some of those won’t last but some will. And that makes for a pretty exciting season.

We haven’t really had any huge upsets yet this year. The closest thing was the Titans beating the Ravens. The Bills blew out the Chiefs but we then realized that the Chiefs are probably the worst team.

Remember my post last week about the Trap Game? As predicted, we had several in Week 3. The Patriots were up by 3 touchdowns but let the Bills stay in the game. Whatever the reason, New England let one get away.

Jets were up 17-7 in Oakland but then got run over.

The Lions were also being Trapped, down 20-0 to the winless Minnesota Vikings. Fortunately for them, they woke up in the second half and got the win in overtime.

Things we have learned:
a. One thing that is painfully obvious is great defenses are few and far in between. The only teams that can make a statement about their defense are the Ravens and 49ers.
b. Because of a., the key to success is having a great quarterback, a strong offensive line, a good pass rusher, and a knack for creating turnovers.
c. Passing yards are way out of proportion this year. The Raiders are the only exception.

Stats o’ the Week:
0 – First half first downs for the Chiefs this week
0 – Field goals this season for the Giants
4 – interceptions thrown by Tom Brady (equals all of last season)
11 – straight wins for the Detroit Lions, including the preseason
13 – rushing yards for the Chicago Bears
98 – rushing yards on the season for Chris Johnson (3 games)

Power Report

As things are beginning to settle, there are some big movers this week, including the Bills (+11), Buccaneers (+5), Giants (+5), Raiders (+5), Eagles (-10), Falcons (-7), Browns (+6), and Dolphins (-7).

There is a pretty big gap between the first two groups of teams. Teams in the middle group all have a pretty glaring weakness, like the offensive line of the Bears, Steelers, Eagles, and Jets. There are 10 teams that are all pretty terrible.

Top 7
1. Packers. The offense was really good without Jermichael Finley. With him they are scary. The defense is opportunistic. This is clearly the best team in the NFL.
2. Patriots. I would put my money on Tom Brady not throwing four interceptions again and blowing a 3 touchdown lead.
3. Saints. 3 straight shootouts against three good teams.
4. Lions. Calvin Johnson is quickly becoming the best receiver in football.
5. Ravens. Who’s Torrey Smith? And how did he catch 3 touchdowns in the first quarter?
6. Texans. Good game in a tough environment. Texans gave up 2 leads in the fourth quarter.
7. Bills. Ryan Fitzpatrick is the new comeback kid, as the Bills have rallied in back-to-back games down 21-3 and 21-0. (If they get Trapped next week they are going back to #18.)

Average
8. Chargers. Nearly blew it against the Chiefs. Offense is near the top in most categories, defense is near the top in most categories, yet they have struggled in all three games. Those 7 Philip Rivers turnovers may be a reason. The good news is it’s September and they haven’t buried themselves like previous years.
9. Bucs. Suddenly that Week 1 loss to the Lions doesn’t look quite so bad now.
10. Giants. For the first time in like 3 seasons the Giants made a lot of big plays, on offense and defense, and finally got the Eagle off their back. Huge win for a very injury-depleted team. Jason Pierre-Paul is the best pass rusher no one outside of the northeast knows about.
11. Bears. Down by 10 with two minutes left, the Bears had “trick play” punt return that went for a touchdown. The refs called a holding penalty on a Bears player that wasn’t even on the field. Replays showed no real holding violation. Chicago had a shot to win the game and the referees took it away on a bogus call.
12. Raiders. Hue Jackson didn’t get the memo that this is a passing league.
13. Steelers. Offensive line is historically bad. Big Ben better have a will written. The Steelers nearly blew it against the hapless Colts on national television.
14. Cowboys. 6 field goals, zero touchdowns. What a win.
15. Jets. For a team that roars about their defense and ground game, their defense has been lit up twice and their ground game is awful. Because of that, Mark Sanchez is getting plenty of opportunities to air it out.
16. Titans. Matt Hasselback has turned this team into a passing team. Which is good, because Chris Johnson is not getting it done on the ground. And how much was that contract he held out to get? The injury bug bit the Titans as their blossoming star receiver Kenny Britt is out for the year.
17. Eagles. Michael Vick should not have been in this game. The Eagles offensive line is so bad that something bad was going to happen. Vick gets hit hard all the time, and it’s not because he’s running around with the ball. Looks like it might be time for Vince Young to get a chance next week as Mike Kafka was awful in relief.
18. Falcons. Outplayed for the third straight game. On the road to Seattle next (long trip) and then they play the Packers.
19. Redskins. Bad Rex showed up Monday night. It’s not often that your defense keeps the opponent out of the endzone and you still lose.
20. 49ers. If the 49ers won a game that nobody watched, does it count?
21. Cardinals. Squandered an opportunity to win a division game against a weak opponent.
22. Browns. Wow, do they have an easy schedule. All 3 of their games have been against the worst teams in the league, and they still have the Seahawks, 49ers, Rams, Jags, and Bengals left.

Bottom 10
23. Vikings. No lead is safe for the Vikings. Minnesota has had a double-digit lead in all 3 games and found a way to lose all of them. How? They’ve been outscored 64-6 in the second half.
24. Jaguars. I’m still mad they beat the Titans in Week 1. The one bright spot: Maurice Jones-Drew is still running well.
25. Rams. At halftime they had already given up over 400 yards to the Ravens. Rams are 0-3, look terrible, and will probably start 0-7, but the bright side is that they have 8 winnable games after that and may be playing a meaningful game on New Years Day in Week 17.
26. Dolphins. Tony Sparano is in trouble. Dolphins are a mess.
27. Broncos. This team has about the least amount of talent as anybody in the NFL. Tim Tebow should be a receiver or running back.
28. Panthers. Wasn’t pretty, but Cam and the Panthers will take win #1.
29. Seahawks. Not much to say.
30. Bengals. Not much to say that you don’t already know.
31. Colts. Dear Sunday Night Football crew: Peyton Manning isn’t playing. It’s time to talk about the actual product on the field. There were over 20 Manning references throughout the game.
32. Chiefs. Didn’t have a first down in the first half and still had a chance to win in the end.

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