2011 PPP, part 3

Okay, my first two posts/4 division previews were a bit long and the season starts in two days and I gotta do week 1 report, so these will be quicker and to the point.

NFC NORTH

It is no secret that the Packers’ championship was one of the most improbable in football’s history when you consider how many key and long-term injuries they sustained throughout the year. They’ve done a great job drafting and keeping the cupboard well-stocked. The offensive line has not been good the last couple years and Aaron Rodgers has been hit a ton, but it showed significant improvement down the stretch last year. Lots of great target receivers and several useful running backs give Rodgers a great chance at an MVP season. His completion percentage and yards per attempt have increased each year. The defense is filled with playmakers. They have a lot of challenging games but they still ought to be favorites in every one.
Forecast = 12-4

Lions have been down for a while but that has also been coupled with rebuilding and picking up great pieces. Calvin Johnson is an incredible physical specimen and seems to continue to improve. The two other biggest playmakers on offense have been riddled with injuries, Matthew Stafford and Jahvid Best, and if they can stay on the field this could be one explosive offense. Suh fortifies the defense but he’s not alone. Schedule is an undeniable factor in judging a team’s win potential, and when you start the season in Tampa Bay and later play the Falcons, Saints and Chargers, plus the Packers twice, it will be hard to qualify for a playoff spot.
Forecast = 8-8

Mike Martz came in and the Bears offense went from 25th in 2009 to 30th in 2010. The new kickoff rules affect the Bears probably more than any team and not in a good way. The offensive line is still terrible. Cutler has no leadership skills. The Bears won the division last year but I still don’t think they are very good and facing the NFC’s best 3 teams the first 3 weeks (Falcons, Saints, Packers) will put them in an early hole.
Forecast = 7-9

Vikings were the most disappointing team last year but that can be attributed to Brett Favre and Brad Childress for not getting him out of there quicker. The receivers McNabb has to work with are among the league’s worst groups and a short training camp will make it that much harder. Look for Adrian Peterson to see career highs in carries. The defense has been one of the league’s best but the group is on the decline. New coach, new quarterback, top receiver gone, hard to see much success here.
Forecast = 6-10

NFC WEST
Flip a coin. Seriously. All these teams could reach 7-9 and it was not easy to pick a winner with 8 wins.

Rams had the highway to a playoff game until they got embarrassed by the Seahawks the last game. They probably have the division’s best quarterback in Sam Bradford, but remember that he has only played 1 NFL season. They are probably the most talented team in the division, but the first half of their schedule includes the Eagles, at Giants, Ravens, at Packers and Cowboys, and a home game against the Saints, with a game in Pittsburgh towards the end. 8 wins is no guarantee.
Forecast = 8-8

Call me crazy, but the 49ers may not be one of the worst teams. Alex Smith probably has the best receivers he’s had to work with in his career and the rushing game should still be strong. Jim Harbaugh ought to put some life into this team, although a full offseason would really have helped. The defense has a lot of new faces and probably won’t be very good. Their schedule looks less daunting than the Rams.
Forecast = 7-9

Andy Reid and Ken Wisenhunt sure seem to like Kevin Kolb. It’s true he can only be an improvement from the league’s worst passing game. The Cardinals gave up an important piece on defense for him. Beanie Wells gets the spotlight in the backfield but he has never looked spectacular in the NFL. The Cardinals should start off with a win (against Carolina) and finishes with four easy games so the division crown and a playoff birth are in reach. It all really depends on Kevin Kolb.
Forecast = 7-9

The best thing going for the Seahawks is the 12th Man and the league’s toughest road trip (see the playoffs last year), especially as several of their toughest games (Falcons, Ravens, Eagles) are all long road trips for the opponent. Other than that, they have a bad offense, a bad defense, and a new unproven quarterback coming off a short learning period.
Forecast = 6-10