This division had the oddest season I can remember. The Chargers had the NFL’s #1 ranked offense AND defense and still missed the playoffs. The Raiders swept the division (6-0) and still missed the playoffs. And the Chiefs went from 10 wins in 3 seasons to 10 wins in one year to take the division. AFC West plays the NFC North.
Philip Rivers never had his primary receiving corps all together and still managed to throw for a NFL-high 4700 yards and 8.71 yards per attempt. With his favorite deep-threat Vincent Jackson here and happy for a full year those numbers could repeat. The defense added veterans Takeo Spikes and Bob Sanders and drafted Corey Luiget and that top defense could be better. One of the major rule changes devalues special teams, the Chargers’ bugaboo. The schedule has plenty of challenging games but also has lots of very winnable ones (Dolphins, Bills, Jags, and Broncos and Raiders a couple times). Norv Turner has a reputation for not winning in the NFL, but the Chargers still ought to have the division clinched by December.
Key Games: w2 @ Patriots, w7 @ Jets, w8 @ Chiefs, w9 Packers, w15 Ravens.
Forecast = 12-4
Chiefs faced off against a lot of bad teams last year and took advantage. Seriously, they played only 2 playoff bound teams. Jamaal Charles is one of the most exciting players in the league, and I like their coaching staff. Dwayne Bowe finally reached his potential and led the NFL in receiving touchdowns. They have some playmakers on defense. Can the Chiefs do it again? The schedule is very tough. They will have to sweep the Broncos and Raiders and a couple of the key games below to grab a wild card.
Key Games: Chargers x2, w2 @ Lions, w5 @ Colts, w11 @ Patriots, w12 Steelers, w13 @ Bears, w14 @ Jets, w15 Packers.
Forecast = 8-8
I liked Raiders’ head coach Tom Cable and seeing him get fired was one of the offseason’s dumbest moves (Al Davis gets that honor nearly every year). The defense lost lockdown cornerback Ndamdi Asomugha and will replace him with a rookie 2nd round pick. They lost their best receiving threat Zach Miller and replaced him with a below average TE Kevin Boss. Darren McFadden finally had a monster season with nearly 1700 yards and gives them a chance to win many games. Jason Campbell has a new coach or offensive coordinator every year; poor guy needs some stability. The o-line is weak and young and the wide receiving group is among the NFL’s worst, so Campbell will have lots of headaches.
Key Games: Chargers/Chiefs x2, w3 Jets, w4 Patriots, w5 @ Texans, w14 @ Packers.
Forecast = 7-9
Much of the preseason spotlight was on the Broncos’ quarterback situation and since Orton didn’t get traded there is really no debate on who runs this team. Josh McDaniels was a terrible coach who ran the team into the ground similar to Isiah Thomas’ Knicks and Omar Minaya’s Mets. It will take a couple years to get them back on track. Honestly, the best thing that could possibly happen for the Broncos is for them to lose a ton and qualify for the Andrew Luck sweepstakes, but they will probably be a little better than that. The defense was dreadful, especially after sack leader Elvis Dumervill missed the season. With his return and the drafted Von Miller new in town, they could be competitive.
Forecast = 6-10
AFC EAST
The Jets and Patriots have become one of the league’s hottest rivalries, and it’s amazing how contrasting the teams really are. Rex Ryan vs. Bill Bellichek, Mark Sanchez vs. Tom Brady. AFC East plays the NFC East.
Tom Brady had a magical regular season, setting a record in interception-less passes and having a sky-high quarterback rating, leading the Patriots to a 14-2 record and winning an MVP. Unfortunately, this was his second magical season that crashed in the playoffs. With no Moss distractions and a happy Ochocinco, the two 2nd year TEs Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, and two new young running backs adding lots of depth, the offense should again be the highest-scoring. The defense has been one of the youngest the last few years but by now they all have lots of experience. If Albert Haynesworth revives his career he can add some much-needed regular pressure on the quarterback.
Key Games: Jets x2, w2 Chargers, w8 @ Steelers, w12 @ Eagles, w13 Colts
Forecast = 12-4
Jets sure make a lot of noise and it doesn’t matter if it’s during the season, the playoffs, offseason, or preseason. Rex Ryan still thinks they will win the Super Bowl, but the Jets didn’t improve their team anywhere. They are counting on Mark Sanchez to blossom into an above-average quarterback but he lost three of his receivers and added two: one that has tried to retire 3 years in a row (Mason) and one that just got out of prison (Plaxico). One person that will help Sanchez is Santonio Holmes, who should be a (the only) consistent contributor on offense. Shonn Greene was supposed to carry the ground game but he only topped 75 rushing yards once last year. They have four road playoff wins the last two years but they’ve also had more stinkers during the season than any great team. The defense will be strong like last year but the offense is below average at best. This was also a team that took advantage of some great special teams plays, and those will be hard to repeat with the new kickoff rules.
Key Games: Patriots x2, w1 Cowboys, w3 @ Raiders, w4 @ Ravens, w15 @ Eagles, w16 Giants
Forecast = 8-8
A year ago I stated that I trust in Chad Henne and Tony Sparano, then the Dolphins went on to have one of the league’s worst offenses, and Henne gets booed in training camp. Brandon Marshall was supposed to be one of the best upgrades for any team but Henne-to-Marshall accounted for a pedantic 3 touchdowns. For what seems like the first time in their careers, Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams played 16 games but didn’t account for much production. They are gone and replaced with the explosive but erratic Reggie Bush and rookie Daniel Thomas. If Bush gets hurt early on and Thomas doesn’t produce the team will have to look elsewhere for help. The defense is projected to be a top-10 unit, and Henne can only go up from last year. The Dolphins are a team with a wide range of potential from 10 wins to 13 losses.
Forecast = 6-10
I haven’t heard much about the Bills, other than that they traded away one of their best receivers Lee Evans. Ryan Fitzpatrick finally emerged as a capable quarterback leader and had some nice connections with Stevie Johnson, although it will be hard for Johnson to repeat with all the double coverage he will see. Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller have potential but weren’t very good behind a weak offensive line and it hasn’t improved much (and hasn’t in years). They have some potential playmakers on defense, but overall this team lacks talent, will be playing from behind a lot, and will likely be players in the Andrew Luck draft party.
Forecast = 4-12
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