I know I haven’t done a blog entry in nearly a year, but the dawn of a new NFL season is a happy occasion deserving of an article. So here is my annual Preseason Preview and Predictions (PPP). It’s a lot of reading so come back to finish; I’ve also divided it into several installments, likely covering 2 divisions at a time.
The NFL prides itself on parity, thanks to a rotating schedule, draft, and an unfortunate surplus of injuries. Some facts:
• We’ve had a new champion the last 5 years and 6 of the last 7.
• 24 of 32 teams have appeared at least once in the playoffs over the last 4 years.
• A turnover of 5 new playoff teams has occurred every year for an extended period of time
So there is a good chance this season’s field of 12 playoff teams will see some surprises like last year’s Chiefs and Bears.
One of the most crucial variables that determine NFL success is usually health, or injury prevention (see last year’s Cowboys and 2008 Patriots). Of course, the Green Bay Packers won the most recent Super Bowl despite piling up the league’s most prolific lineup on Injured Reserve. Injuries are guaranteed to happen but are impossible to predict. There are few teams that have significant injury concerns right now (Giants’ defense, Colt’s Peyton Manning), but everyone else (besides a few running backs with sore hamstrings and knees) is mostly healthy. A favorite phrase of football writers is “They should win, barring injuries.” Since injuries are guaranteed to happen but impossible to predict, I won’t use the phrase or include them in my forecast, although significant injuries can seriously scramble the standings.
NFC EAST
This has been a very competitive division for many years. Last season, the Eagles won the division, Cowboys before that, and two years earlier the Giants won the Super Bowl. This division also has four of the best rivalries in the NFL: Eagles/Giants, Eagles/Cowboys, Giants/Cowboys, Cowboys/Redskins. NFC East plays the AFC East.
Eagles improved their defense and offensive depth. Michael Vick is one of the very few superstars in the NFL (Chris Johnson is another, I can’t really think of any others). But they do have serious issues with their offensive line, one of the most important parts of a team. Vick had a dream season a year ago, and while some say he can’t repeat, he has so many weapons around him that an MVP-type season isn’t unlikely. With Vick, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, LeSean McCoy, and eventually Steve Smith, this offense is must-see-TV. Even their backups are solid (Vince Young and Ronnie Brown). They made lots of big acquisitions on defense and their cornerback collection of Ndamdi Asomugha, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and Asante Samuel look like the league’s best on paper. Linebackers are weak. But there is a lot to like, and Andy Reid always gets the best out of his team.
Key Games: Giants/Cowboys x2, w2 @ Falcons , w12 Patriots, w15 Jets
Forecast = 11-5
Cowboys were a mess last season, but Romo is healthy now and the team was a lot more competitive once Jason Garrett became the head coach. The defense was awful but the addition of Rob Ryan as DC ought to bring a big lift. Passing is the new big deal in football, and with Tony Romo, Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, and Jason Witten, this team has one of the best air games. Felix Jones and Dez Bryant are big breakout candidates.
Key Games: Giants/Eagles x2, w1 @ Jets, w6 @ Patriots, w15 @ Bucs
Forecast = 10-6
Giants had a dreadful preseason. They lost a half-dozen cornerbacks to injury, the first team offense had trouble getting into the end zone, and turnovers continue to plague them. Last season the special teams was dreadful, and thankfully Matt Dodge is gone. Eli Manning had 30 turnovers, and the team’s total of 42 was tops in the league. The meltdown against the Eagles, was legendary, blowing something like a 31-7 lead crowned by DJax returning a punt for a touchdown to end it. And you know what? The Giants still finished with a 10-6 record, only missing the playoffs due to a tiebreaker with the Packers. Eli Manning isn’t an elite NFL quarterback, but he’s a quality top-10, and a top-10 NFL quarterback with a Super Bowl MVP is in pretty fine company. The Giants didn’t make any great additions this offseason and did lose two important safety-blankets on offense (Steve Smith and Kevin Boss). I still really like Eli’s weapons—Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Brandon Jacobs. Look for the Giants to pound the ball in the running game. I’m not worried about the offense. Eli won’t have 30 turnovers again. The defense can still put a lot of pressure on the opposing quarterback. But the secondary is mighty thin and looked really bad this preseason, and the special teams still looks very weak.
Key Games: Eagles/Cowboys x2, w9 @ Patriots, w12 @ Saints, w13 Packers, w16 @Jets
Forecast = 9-7
Quarterback is the most important position in sports, and no team has more uncertainty than the Redskins. Whether it is John Beck (go Cougars!) or Rex Grossman, neither inspire much fan confidence. Mike Shanahan usually gets pretty good production from his running backs, but the trio of Tim Hightower, Roy Helu and Ryan Torain won’t keep an opposing coach up at night. Santana Moss is the only real receiving threat. The defense was near the bottom last year. And the other three division rivals are really good. I feel bad for John Beck, the only chance he had before now was with a depleted Dolphins team that went 1-15 that had nobody around him, and now this team lacking weapons that is destined for last place in the division.
Forecast = 5-11
NFC SOUTH
I believe this is the strongest division in the NFL. There was a stretch where the last place team won the division the following year like 5 years in a row, but Carolina is a mile behind the other three teams. NFC South plays the AFC South.
Maybe it was just a Super Bowl honeymoon, but from the midseason head-scratching loss to the Cardinals (Go Max Hall, another Cougar!) to the legendary playoff upset to the Seahawks, the Saints were disappointing last year. They have made some quality improvements this offseason, replacing the oft-injured Reggie Bush with a comparable Darren Sproles and drafted Heisman winner Mark Ingram; and adding quality defensive lineman like Cam Jordan and the mammoth Shaun Rogers. I have a lot of faith in Sean Payton and Gregg Williams (DC) coaching. Drew Brees threw 22 interceptions last year. That’s near the number Eli Manning threw. Look for that number to cut in half closer to the 11 from the previous year. The young TE Jimmy Graham, another bullet for Drew Brees to use, looks like a breakout candidate. Look for the Saints to “bounce back” and compete as one of the league’s best teams.
Key Games: Falcons/Bucs x2, w1 @ Packers, w3 Texans, w7 Colts, w12 Giants
Forecast = 11-5
Falcons were the NFC’s best regular season team but got blown out in their first playoff game against the eventual champion Packers. This team has been primarily a ground team with stalwart Michael Turner pounding away, but look for Matt Ryan to take control of the offense and air it out a lot more, especially with rookie Julio Jones. That should take pressure off Roddy White, and also allow Harry Douglas to fill a Wes Welker-type role. Last year the Falcons took advantage of a schedule that favored them above the Saints. This year the schedule has swung the other way. Like the Saints and Bucs, the Falcons play the Colts and Texans from the AFC South, but the Falcons face them both on the road while the Bucs and Saints get them at home. They also have to travel to Seattle, one of the toughest road trips, and that is sandwiched between a game in Tampa Bay and a home game against the Packers. 8 of their first 9 games are very challenging. So while this team looks even better than last year’s squad that went 13-3, wins will be much tougher to come by. But if they get in the playoffs they are contenders.
Key Games: Saints/Bucs x2, w1 @ Bears, w2 Eagles, w4 @ Seahawks, w5 Packers, w7 @ Lions, w9 @ Colts, w13 @ Texans.
Forecast = 10-6
Ask who will be the best quarterback in five years and many people (myself included) respond with the Buccaneers’ Josh Freeman. Drafted behind Mark Sanchez and Matthew Stafford, he looks better. I don’t remember the exact stats, but in his two years starting he has led like 8 or 9 4th quarter comebacks. He is big, strong and smart, and surprisingly was the best running quarterback besides Michael Vick last year. I was totally amazed that the Bucs improved so much last year relying so much on young unproven players but they proved a lot winning 10 games. The defense is very young, putting complete dependence in rookies and second year players. The offense will be fine, but the defense will make or break the Bucs’ season.
Key Games: Saints/Falcons x2, w4 Colts, w10 Texans, w11 @ Packers, w12 @ Titans, w15 Cowboys.
Forecast = 10-6
Panthers won only 2 games last year against the lowly 49ers and Cardinals. They re-signed a lot of their main players, but other than Cool Cam Newton they didn’t really add anybody new. The ground attack of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart and Mike Goodson should carry this team, but how successful can they be against 8 or 9 man defensive fronts? The Panthers made Charles Johnson the highest paid defensive player but that doesn’t mean he is the best defensive player. Their last 6 games are brutal. Especially in this division, the Panthers will be in the running again for #1 pick in the 2012 draft.
Forecast = 3-13
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