What was he thinking?

The Yankees have the division wrapped up as well as the best record in the American League. This is their opportunity and privilege to rest up and coast a little.

However, on Sunday night Joe Torre made one of the dumbest managerial moves I have ever seen (or rather, heard).

Here's the situation:
- Yankees vs. Red Sox.
- Second game of a doubleheader.
- Red Sox have a half-game lead for the Wild Card.
- Tie game, bottom of the 9th inning, bases loaded, two outs.
- Rivera pitched the top of the 9th.
- Red Sox bring in their closer Jonathan Papelbon.
- Teixeira and Posada were removed for pinch runners that inning.
- Austin Romine, a rookie catcher recently called up from the minor leagues is due up.
- Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Russell Martin, and Andruw Jones have yet to play and are available on the bench.

The only question was who would pinch hit.

Here's what happened:
- No pinch hitter was used.
- Romine struck out.
- The game lasted five more innings.
- Joe Girardi got ejected in the 13th inning.
- Red Sox won.

There is a reason you are paying Alex Rodriguez $32 million and it is not to sit on the bench in the 9th inning against the Red Sox. Derek Jeter is the captain and hitting about .350 since mid-July. Austin Romine had had 13 major league at-bats. He wasn't going to be on the playoff roster. He is a fill in because of the roster expansion.

In the words of the great Herm Edwards: "You play to win the game!"

This is Red Sox vs. Yankees! This was an opportunity to bury Boston. You have to give your team the best chance to win, and that was not with Romine getting the most important at-bat of the game.

They had already played 18 innings that day and everybody wanted to go home. If the Yankees get a hit (or walk) the game is over. Worst case scenerio: if A-Rod or Jeter made an out and ended the inning, Girardi could bring in Russell Martin to catch. Or have Jesus Montero (who was already in the game) catch. Instead, Romine swung on a bad pitch and they had to play 14 innings. It made no sense, especially since Girardi took the game serious enough to argue a play at second and get tossed a little later.

I know Joe wanted to rest his aging stars after playing earlier in the day but come on, it's one at-bat! Give your team a chance to win! This is the Yankees!

Week 3 Power Report

After Week 3 all of the following teams are either leading their division or share a lead (remember, division winners are playoff teams):
Redskins, Lions, Buccaneers, 49ers, Bills, Browns, Texans, and Raiders. That’s every division. Some of those won’t last but some will. And that makes for a pretty exciting season.

We haven’t really had any huge upsets yet this year. The closest thing was the Titans beating the Ravens. The Bills blew out the Chiefs but we then realized that the Chiefs are probably the worst team.

Remember my post last week about the Trap Game? As predicted, we had several in Week 3. The Patriots were up by 3 touchdowns but let the Bills stay in the game. Whatever the reason, New England let one get away.

Jets were up 17-7 in Oakland but then got run over.

The Lions were also being Trapped, down 20-0 to the winless Minnesota Vikings. Fortunately for them, they woke up in the second half and got the win in overtime.

Things we have learned:
a. One thing that is painfully obvious is great defenses are few and far in between. The only teams that can make a statement about their defense are the Ravens and 49ers.
b. Because of a., the key to success is having a great quarterback, a strong offensive line, a good pass rusher, and a knack for creating turnovers.
c. Passing yards are way out of proportion this year. The Raiders are the only exception.

Stats o’ the Week:
0 – First half first downs for the Chiefs this week
0 – Field goals this season for the Giants
4 – interceptions thrown by Tom Brady (equals all of last season)
11 – straight wins for the Detroit Lions, including the preseason
13 – rushing yards for the Chicago Bears
98 – rushing yards on the season for Chris Johnson (3 games)

Power Report

As things are beginning to settle, there are some big movers this week, including the Bills (+11), Buccaneers (+5), Giants (+5), Raiders (+5), Eagles (-10), Falcons (-7), Browns (+6), and Dolphins (-7).

There is a pretty big gap between the first two groups of teams. Teams in the middle group all have a pretty glaring weakness, like the offensive line of the Bears, Steelers, Eagles, and Jets. There are 10 teams that are all pretty terrible.

Top 7
1. Packers. The offense was really good without Jermichael Finley. With him they are scary. The defense is opportunistic. This is clearly the best team in the NFL.
2. Patriots. I would put my money on Tom Brady not throwing four interceptions again and blowing a 3 touchdown lead.
3. Saints. 3 straight shootouts against three good teams.
4. Lions. Calvin Johnson is quickly becoming the best receiver in football.
5. Ravens. Who’s Torrey Smith? And how did he catch 3 touchdowns in the first quarter?
6. Texans. Good game in a tough environment. Texans gave up 2 leads in the fourth quarter.
7. Bills. Ryan Fitzpatrick is the new comeback kid, as the Bills have rallied in back-to-back games down 21-3 and 21-0. (If they get Trapped next week they are going back to #18.)

Average
8. Chargers. Nearly blew it against the Chiefs. Offense is near the top in most categories, defense is near the top in most categories, yet they have struggled in all three games. Those 7 Philip Rivers turnovers may be a reason. The good news is it’s September and they haven’t buried themselves like previous years.
9. Bucs. Suddenly that Week 1 loss to the Lions doesn’t look quite so bad now.
10. Giants. For the first time in like 3 seasons the Giants made a lot of big plays, on offense and defense, and finally got the Eagle off their back. Huge win for a very injury-depleted team. Jason Pierre-Paul is the best pass rusher no one outside of the northeast knows about.
11. Bears. Down by 10 with two minutes left, the Bears had “trick play” punt return that went for a touchdown. The refs called a holding penalty on a Bears player that wasn’t even on the field. Replays showed no real holding violation. Chicago had a shot to win the game and the referees took it away on a bogus call.
12. Raiders. Hue Jackson didn’t get the memo that this is a passing league.
13. Steelers. Offensive line is historically bad. Big Ben better have a will written. The Steelers nearly blew it against the hapless Colts on national television.
14. Cowboys. 6 field goals, zero touchdowns. What a win.
15. Jets. For a team that roars about their defense and ground game, their defense has been lit up twice and their ground game is awful. Because of that, Mark Sanchez is getting plenty of opportunities to air it out.
16. Titans. Matt Hasselback has turned this team into a passing team. Which is good, because Chris Johnson is not getting it done on the ground. And how much was that contract he held out to get? The injury bug bit the Titans as their blossoming star receiver Kenny Britt is out for the year.
17. Eagles. Michael Vick should not have been in this game. The Eagles offensive line is so bad that something bad was going to happen. Vick gets hit hard all the time, and it’s not because he’s running around with the ball. Looks like it might be time for Vince Young to get a chance next week as Mike Kafka was awful in relief.
18. Falcons. Outplayed for the third straight game. On the road to Seattle next (long trip) and then they play the Packers.
19. Redskins. Bad Rex showed up Monday night. It’s not often that your defense keeps the opponent out of the endzone and you still lose.
20. 49ers. If the 49ers won a game that nobody watched, does it count?
21. Cardinals. Squandered an opportunity to win a division game against a weak opponent.
22. Browns. Wow, do they have an easy schedule. All 3 of their games have been against the worst teams in the league, and they still have the Seahawks, 49ers, Rams, Jags, and Bengals left.

Bottom 10
23. Vikings. No lead is safe for the Vikings. Minnesota has had a double-digit lead in all 3 games and found a way to lose all of them. How? They’ve been outscored 64-6 in the second half.
24. Jaguars. I’m still mad they beat the Titans in Week 1. The one bright spot: Maurice Jones-Drew is still running well.
25. Rams. At halftime they had already given up over 400 yards to the Ravens. Rams are 0-3, look terrible, and will probably start 0-7, but the bright side is that they have 8 winnable games after that and may be playing a meaningful game on New Years Day in Week 17.
26. Dolphins. Tony Sparano is in trouble. Dolphins are a mess.
27. Broncos. This team has about the least amount of talent as anybody in the NFL. Tim Tebow should be a receiver or running back.
28. Panthers. Wasn’t pretty, but Cam and the Panthers will take win #1.
29. Seahawks. Not much to say.
30. Bengals. Not much to say that you don’t already know.
31. Colts. Dear Sunday Night Football crew: Peyton Manning isn’t playing. It’s time to talk about the actual product on the field. There were over 20 Manning references throughout the game.
32. Chiefs. Didn’t have a first down in the first half and still had a chance to win in the end.

Week 3 Preview

This is probably the first year in a long time where there are no surprisingly disappointing and desperate 0-2 teams. We also haven’t had a top team lose to a bad team. There are a lot of great games to pay attention to this week.

Key Matchups:
1. Eagles vs. Giants, early game on FOX: This is the first meeting since that heartbreaking game last year when the Giants blew the big league and punter Matt Dodge kicked it right to DeSean Jackson on the last play. Had he kicked it out of bounds instead then the Giants would have been in the playoffs and the Eagles would have had an early vacation. The Giants are banged up but might be getting some guys back. Michael Vick is coming off a concussion but it’s looking likely that he he’ll play. This is the toughest game of the week to pick a winner.
2. Saints vs. Texans, early game on CBS: This looks like potentially the most entertaining game of the weekend. 2-0 Texans looking to make a statement at one of the league’s toughest road spots.
3. Bears vs. Packers, 4pm game on FOX: a rematch of the NFC Championship game where Cutler was knocked out of the game and the Packers pulled away.
4. Bills vs. Patriots early game on CBS (for some reason this matchup of local teams is being replaced on TV with bull riding and paid programming. I hope that gets fixed). A divisional game of two 2-0 teams.
5. Cowboys vs. Redskins, Monday Night Football: One of the league’s biggest and longest rivalries. The Cowboys are really banged up while the Redskins are pretty healthy.

Upset Alert:
Raiders over Jets
Bears over Packers

Stone Cold Picks:
(last week 3-1, to date 4-4)
- Panthers over Jaguars. Cam Newton looking for his first win against another rookie quarterback making his first NFL start.
- Raiders over Jets. Raiders look like a solid team that can run the ball very well. For the Jets, Mark Sanchez is sore, their Pro Bowl center is out, and they are going cross country after a blowout win (trap game).
- Redskins over Cowboys: If Romo plays he will probably not be very effective. The Cowboys starting running back and both starting receivers are hurt. The Redskins have a pretty good passing attack right now with Rex Grossman and the Cowboys secondary is weak.
- Dolphins over Browns: Chad Henne and Miami get their first win of the year on the road, and I expect a blowout.

The Rest of the Games:
(last week 9-3, to date 16-8)
- 49ers over Bengals
- Lions over Vikings
- Titans over Broncos
- Eagles over Giants
- Saints over Texans
- Patriots over Bills
- Ravens over Rams
- Chargers over Chiefs (Eliminator Lock)
- Bears over Packers
- Cardinals over Seahawks
- Buccaneers over Falcons
- Steelers over Colts

My Philosophy on Power Rankings

Most sports sites and writers have Power Rankings. Why, because humans love lists and we love to analyze and attach value to sport teams. As a sports writer, I do my Power Report as a pride thing, to show how much I know about sports and evaluate my own predictions and evaluations.

Baseball and basketball have such long seasons that it is pretty easy to tell where a team is after 60 games. The standings tell the story pretty well. There are strength of schedule differences, but pretty much you are what your record shows.

Ranking football teams brings many more challenges. The biggest challenge is that there are 32 teams and everybody only plays 16 games, including 6 against the teams in their division. This often creates some odd scenerios, like the Falcons winning 13, Bears winning 11 and the Chiefs winning 10 last year (how good were they?). It's common for mediocre teams to get lucky with a soft schedule and have a win total greater than their team lineup should grant.

Evaluating the beginning of the season is tough because 2 games in the NFL season equals 20 in baseball.

The third problem is also caused by an unbalanced schedule. Take the Giants and Falcons for example. I (and most NFL fans outside of New York) believe that the Falcons are a much stronger team than my GMen. The first half of the Giants schedule has @ Redskins, Rams, @ Cardinals, Seahawks, Bills, Dolphins. It is not hard to believe that they could start 6-1 (or 5-2), which would put their record among the best in the NFL, despite only playing one quality team (Eagles). The Falcons begin the season by playing @ Bears, Eagles, @ Bucs, Packers, @ Lions and Saints. That is 6 tough games before Week 8. But in the second half of the season the Giants have the toughest schedule in the NFL and the Falcons’ lightens up a little. So will we be forced to put the Giants ahead of the Falcons because their record is better through 7 games? By Week 15 the standings will be a good indicator of where teams are but before then there could be some flukes or misleading teams (like the 2-0 Bills and the 2009 Broncos that started 6-0). So before then, we have to do our best to analyze the sleeping giants that will break out and disregard the mediocre teams that take advantage of a soft schedule early.

My basic criteria for determining my Power Report rankings are thus:
1) The Eye Test: what do my eyes tell me?
2) Obviously wins and losses are important in evaluating the strength of each team
3) If two teams matched up on a neutral field, who do I believe is likely to win the majority of the time? (Team A could beat Team B 9 out of 10 times in hypothetical games, but if that #10 happens first, it doesn’t necessarily mean that Team B is better. Look at the Titans and Ravens).
4) Where do I expect this team to be at the end of the season? What teams have the most staying power (opposed to the baseball Pirates that started hot but then fell apart, or the afore-mentioned 2009 Broncos)?
5) Along with #4, how good are they? If they are a 12-13 win caliber team, that means they are expected to lose 3-4 games. It doesn’t matter if those happen in Week 1, 3, or 15. The Saints played the Packers (reigning champs and favored to win this year) their first game. Am I going to rank them below the Redskins, Bills, Jets, and Lions because they lost on the road to the best team in the NFL, and those other teams played some vanilla opponents? It’s only been 2 games!
6) Upsets happen. If a team gets bit twice, it’s a sign.

I believe that power rankings should be pretty consistent week to week. Remember in the beginning of this silly article where I said that I like to do power rankings to evaluate my own evaluating skills? If Team X begins the season at #29, and after each game moves to #15, #3, #19, #5, then what do I know? Nothing, I’m just bouncing around overreacting to every game, floating on every wind of doctrine. But if the majority of my rankings stay pretty close from Week 1 through Week 17 then it shows my initial evaluations were pretty good! I stuck with my guns and didn’t cave in after a couple tough losses and I wasn’t fooled by a flukey start. (Of course, if a favorite team of mine begins 3-6 I’m not going to blindly leave them higher than they belong. And injuries can force significant adjustments.)

Yes, that is subjective. No, it's not an exact science. And that’s the fun in doing power rankings. Coming up with some magic formula is missing the trees for the forest.

That being said, in my Power Report you may notice a few points:
1) I’m not buying the Jets or Bills despite their 2-0 start.
2) I’m not too down on the Saints, Ravens, Chargers or Eagles just because they lost a game.
3) I am buying the Lions and Texans. Like I said, they pass the Eye Test. They look good. The Texans could lose to the Saints but I’m not worried overall.
4) We don’t quite know enough about the Falcons, Bucs, Raiders, Redskins, Dolphins or Cardinals to really feel good about their position in the rankings.
5) Top 10 teams that I am least confident about: Bears and Eagles and Steelers. It goes without saying that if Big Ben misses several games the Steelers will be average, if Cutler goes down for a while the Bears are below-average, and should Vick miss a few games the Eagles may drop. The offensive lines for each are poor.

I’m a little bullish on the Lions. The Lions might not be the #6 best team, but if they end the year in the top 12 I’ll feel good about my evaluation.

I have had nothing nice to say about the Bills to this point so I will now. They look much better than I anticipated. They have more dimensions in their offense, and Ryan Fitzpatrick is a quality player (I liked him last year, too). There just hasn't been enough evidence to show that they will continue and win 7-8 games.

And by the way, I'm not afraid to admit that I was wrong!

My Favorite Yankee

On Monday, Mariano Rivera recorded career save #602, giving him the most in baseball history. He is without question the best relief pitcher in baseball history. His consistency is incredible.

I'm currently reading Buster Olney's book The Last Night of the Yankee Dynasty and here are a couple descriptive passages from there about Mo.

"Rivera, the Yankees' closer, thought players should act properly, as well; he despised pitchers who were disrespectful to opponents--glaring insolently at hitters and stomping and swaggering around the mound like Neanderthals, pumping a fist to celebrate the smallest successes. You should act as though you've won before, Rivera believed; you should act as though you expect to win again. Some pitchers grew mustaches and beards and groomed them in arcane ways to make themselves look threatening, but this made Rivera more certain they were actually very much afraid...

"There was inflexible structure to everything Rivera did. Some of the other Yankees adhered only grudgingly to the team's policy against long hair and beards, and a few holdouts always took the field with day-old facial growth. But Rivera shaved before every game and had his thinning hair cut close to his scalp, like stitches on a baseball. He wore his uniform precisely to code, with the cuffs of his uniform pants raised to the proper height above his heels, and he followed the same disciplined regimen before, during, and after games. When Rivera emerged from the Yankees' bullpen to pitch, he held his glove in his right hand and jogged steadily to the mound, running on the balls of his feet, his head always tilted downward--the coolest entrance of any closer, teammate Roger Clemens thought, because it was so understated. Rivera never looked angry or arrogant or intense. He had the demeanor of a customs agent, serious and polite. All eyes were on him whenever he stepped out of the bullpen."

I'm not going to spend time copying his stats here, but they are remarkable. Even Yankees' haters have to admire him. He is dignified, humble, calm and professional, and one of the best human beings in baseball. Yankees' games have become 8 inning affairs for the last 15 years for opposing players and fans, but my favorite part of any ballgame is the 9th inning with Mariano Rivera on the mound. I dread the day when #42 will no longer come out of the bullpen.

Week 2 Power Report

Oh no! The Ravens are terrible, Bills and Lions are headed to the Super Bowl, and Cam Newton is bound for the Hall of Fame.

Overreactions are too easy to fall into after only 1 or 2 games. Remember last week, when the Steelers and Falcons were embarrassed, Tony Romo couldn’t win a game, the Chargers yielded only 28 passing yards, and the Chiefs and Colts were awful? Oh yeah, those last two are still true.
There are things we continue to learn, but we don’t know everything, and we are certain to be surprised next week. But here I go.

Yes, the Bills are the big surprise team at 2-0. But just remember this, we are a 4th down catch in the endzone with 15 seconds or a jump ball hail mary (that was close enough to be reviewed for ten minutes) away from saying the same thing about Raiders instead. And Bills other win was against the Chiefs.

By the way, I believe in justice and forgiveness. Michael Vick committed a horrible crime and he went to jail for it. He lost millions (hundreds of millions) of dollars for it. He has paid his debt to humanity. From now on, days after he made his return to Atlanta as a starting quarterback, I don’t ever want to hear about what he did and that should not be attached to his persona. He’s a good person and an unbelievable athlete. The end.

Things we learned:
a. Colts, Chiefs, and Seahawks are bad, really bad.

Stats o’ the Week:
a. 0 – kick returns for touchdowns (compared with 8 in Week 1)
b. 1.8 - Jags’ Luke McCown’s quarterback rating
c. 5 – consecutive 2nd half drives by the Bills for touchdowns
d. 9 – turnovers for the Chiefs in two games
e. 11 – sacks on Jay Cutler in two games
f. 1126 – total yards for the Patriots’ offense

Power Report

Top 10
1. Patriots. Defense has given up a lot of yards but they make big stops when they need to. They also completely shut down the Chargers’ best receiver. Send this year’s MVP trophy to the engraver already for Tom Brady.
2. Packers. Aaron Rodgers had one of the prettier passes of the week. The offense is well balanced.
3. Saints. Drew Brees also threw a picture-perfect pass.
4. Chargers. Too many turnovers and missed opportunities.
5. Texans. Big test in the Big Easy this weekend. Will they rise up or get blown out?
6. Lions. What’s not to love? One of the most potent offenses and a defense that creates a lot of quarterback pressure.
7. Eagles. Kafka looks serviceable, but they need Vick (or Vince) if they want to win the East. The offensive line is terrible and the linebackers are struggling, too. They gave up way too many big runs up the middle. If Maclin doesn’t drop that ball on 4th down they may have won.
8. Ravens. Flacco looked inconsistent like usual, and the defense was surprisingly generous.
9. Bears. They’ve got to protect Jay Cutler. Despite their loss, they are a better team than I thought and they have a real shot to upset the Packers next week.
10. Steelers. I’ve always said Big Ben is a statue in the pocket, and he’s in big trouble behind that offensive line.

Good, But Still in the Middle of the Pack
11. Falcons. If Vick stays in the Falcons are 0-2. Matt Ryan led a good comeback but I still think he is overrated. This team is not as good as I thought they were, at least not yet.
12. Jets. Good game, but not much to learn from it.
13. Cowboys. More and more injuries to important players, including Romo and Miles Austin. Kudos to Tony Romo for playing through the pain and being a hero. It was surprising that he had to in a game against the lowly 49ers.
14. Bucs. Josh Freeman leads a big comeback once again and LeGarrett Blount finally made an appearance.
15. Giants. Not much to say.
16. Titans. Finally the offense looks explosive. Surprising that Chris Johnson has done next to nothing. Don’t expect that to continue.
17. Raiders. The defense could not stop the Bills. In a league where passing is king, Darren McFadden is still a monster running the ball.
18. Bills. Hard to believe that Raiders/Bills was the most dramatic game of the weekend. It is also surprising to see how many weapons that Ryan Fitzpatrick has found on that team. But hey, he’s from Harvard; smart guy.

Below Average
19. Dolphins. Not much to say.
20. Redskins. 2-0, but not much to say. Let’s see what they do against the Cowboys.
21. Cardinals. They do have the best (offensive) player in the division in Larry Fitzgerald so maybe that makes them the favorites.
22. Rams. They’ve looked pretty bad. Sam Bradford had the most unimpressive 331 passing yards ever. But at least they don’t play in the NFC East.
23. 49ers. Showed some life.

Bad Teams
24. Vikings. Not much to say.
25. Jaguars. I bet they regret cutting David Garrard in place of Luke McCown.
26. Broncos. Not much to say.
27. Bengals
28. Browns
29. Panthers. Cam Newton is on pace to throw for 6,800 yards and the Panthers are on pace for 0-16.

Suck for Luck Frontrunners
30. Colts. Embarrassed by a team that lost the Bengals. Is Curtis Paynter a better fill-in than Kerry Collins?
31. Seahawks. Compare those 1126 Patriots yards to the Seahawks’ 385.
32. Chiefs. In two games they have lost their best player on offense, their best player on defense, and been outscored 89-10.

Trap game

A trap game occurs after a team comes off an emotional or high-energy, exciting game and then matches up with a lesser opponent that is likely to be overlooked and is a prime upset candidate. Lots of trap games in the schedule for Week 2: Jets, Ravens, Packers, Texans, and Bills all had them. Jets responded well by killing the Jags. Texans controlled their game. Packers and Bills both found themselves in a big hole early but woke up and won their games. The Ravens, however, were completely overmatched against the Titans. This was the same Ravens team that dismantled the AFC Champions and big division rival Steelers with a 35-7 beat down where they went an incredible +7 in turnovers and Joe Flacco had a 3/0 TD/INT ratio. It was the most impressive win of the week. One week later against a (supposedly) weaker opponent Flacco went 1/2 and the defense could not stop Matt Hasselback and Kenny Britt. This was the same Titans team that lost their opening game to Jacksonville and Luke McCown. Jim Harbaugh had no explanation. Therefore, trap game.

Patriots, Lions, Jets, Packers, Falcons, and Cowboys have possible trap games in Week 3. Look for one or two upsets from those games.

NFL Week 2 Preview

In Week 1, four of the five lowest-rated teams all won, the Bengals, Bills, Redskins, and 49ers. It is no surprise that all my picks bombed last week. But that’s why we love the NFL, it is unpredictable. Anything can happen on any given Sunday. The Law of Averages gives me optimism.

Key Matchups:
1. Patriots vs. Chargers, 4pm on CBS: Besides all the obvious reasons this matchup is interesting because it features the #1 offense in Week 1 (Patriots – 622 yards) against the #1 defense (Chargers, 187 yards allowed). Neither team has much of a pass rush so the air game ought to be bountiful. Over/under on combined passing yards 650? I’ll take the over, like 700 yards. This should be like the Saints/Packers game.
2. Falcons vs. Eagles, Sunday night on NBC: Michael Vick’s first return to Atlanta as a starting quarterback since going to prison. Falcons are a little desperate after getting pounded in their opening game.
3. Saints vs. Bears, 1pm on FOX: Bears coming off a huge home win over the Falcons. Saints get a few extra days after their exciting narrow loss to the Packers.

Upset alert:
(0-2 last week)
Dolphins over Texans
Raiders over Bills

Stone Cold Picks:
(1-3 last week)
- Lions over Chiefs. Chiefs lost their star safety and the Stafford to Megatron connection is open.
- Colts over Browns. This year begins the downfall of the Colts, but even Kerry Collins won’t lose to the Browns.
- Saints over Bears. This game will be a blowout.
- Buccaneers over Vikings. Voting on who bounces back between McNabb and the Bucs, I’ll take the road team.


The Rest of the games:
- Patriots over Chargers
- Eagles over Falcons
- Dolphins over Texans
- Bills over Raiders
- Packers over Panthers
- Giants over Rams
- Steelers over Seahawks (Eliminator Lock)
- Ravens over Titans
- Cowboys over 49ers
- Jets over Jaguars
- Redskins over Cardinals
- Broncos over Bengals

Fact o’ the Day:
The NFC has had 10 different champions in the last 10 years. That trend bodes well for the Cowboys, Lions, or Falcons. (courtesy of ESPN’s Adam Schefter)

When will they learn?

Too many teams are being buried by bad contracts. Heading into the end of the season when teams will begin looking to sign and re-sign players and agents will be screaming about individual worth, here is the list of some of the contracts in circulation.

- Vernon Wells - $26M. Currently hitting .218 with 21 HR; previous years in this contract he hit .240 and .260, only topping 22 HR once (so why are they paying him?). By the way, he's no longer on the team that gave him that contract.

- Joe Mauer - $23M. Signed him to be the best-hitting catcher in baseball, but now it's uncertain if he'll even be the team catcher in a couple years. The Twins also built a new stadium and now he's hitting .287 with 3 home runs. And oh yeah, Twins are in last place.

- Jason Bay - $18M. Declining batting average three years in a row, only 18 home runs combined in the first two years of the contract. And oh yeah, Mets are terrible.

- Carl Crawford - $15M. Average salary during the contract is $20M. Currently hitting .249 with 11 HR.

- Jayson Werth - $10M. Average salary during contract is $18M. Currently hitting .232 with 19 HR.

- Alex Rios - $12M. Hitting .224, a couple years ago hit .247, hasn't hit more than 21 home runs in any of the four previous contract years. By the way, he's no longer with the team that gave the contract. Two more years.

- A.J. Burnett - $16M. Brian Cashman rewarded him for one good season, and now he's practically pitched himself out of the rotation. But the Yankees are paying him so much and are stuck for 2 more years there is nothing they can do about him.

- Alex Rodriguez - $32M. His body is falling apart and now it is doubtful that he'll reach Barry Bonds' home run mark. He has missed 58 games this year. And the Yankees are paying him for 6 more years.

- Todd Helton - $20M. Hitting over .300 but in Colorado who isn't?

Meanwhile, the Arizona Diamondbacks have nobody on their roster making over $6 million and they are runaway winners in the NL West.

Tampa Bay Rays are also not paying anyone $6 million and they are making a run at the wild card.

The New York Mets released Luis Castillo and Oliver Perez before the season, even though they still had to pay them $18M.

White Sox (5th), Cubs (6th), Mets (7th), Twins (9th) are in the top 10 highest payroll and none have been competitive. Giants are 8th, but 7 games behind the Dbacks.

ATTENTION: paying a player superstar money doesn't guarantee superstar results! And more often than not, it cripples the team for years to come!

What players actually performed to the level of their monster contracts? Alex Rodriguez's previous contract did include 2 MVPs, but he also didn't finish the contract with the team that signed him. Other than that, you tell me the player.

Attention, owners interested in Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Jose Reyes, and re-signing any of your big-name players to huge contracts: BUYER BEWARE!!

Week 1 Power Report

Everyone tends to overreact after one week of games. I will fight that urge, but there are several things learned after everyone’s first post-lockout real game.

Things we learned:
a. Offense is ahead of the defense. 1100+ yards of offense in the New England/Miami game, 76 points in the Packers/Saints game, and a rookie “athletic” quarterback threw for over 400 yards. Don’t overreact to it (wow, the Packers and Patriots are terrible!).
b. So much for the new rules taking away special teams plays. Green Bay’s Randall Cobb, Minnesota’s Percy Harvin, and San Francisco’s Ted Ginn Jr. each returned kickoffs from endzone to endzone (and there were plenty other long returns). There are lots more touchbacks, but players are taking a lot more risks instead of taking a knee.

Stats of the Week:
0: Wins for the NFC South (0-4)
7: Turnovers for the Pittsburgh Steelers
8: Kicks returns for touchdowns
14: Quarterbacks that topped 300 yards passing
39: Passing yards for Donovan McNabb
517: Passing yards for Tom Brady

Power Report
1. Packers. The Packers confirmed that there is no Super Bowl honeymoon for them. They are the real deal on offense and defense (despite giving up a lot of yards and points, their defense put a lot of pressure on Brees and held strong at the goal line), and even provided some fireworks on special teams, with rookie Randall Cobb returning a kickoff to paydirt.

2. Patriots. My cousin Adam stated that “Tom Brady is a product of the system.” If you watched this game or any other game in Brady’s career, you will know that the system is a product of Tom Brady. 622 yards of offense is the most I’ve ever seen for an NFL game. And who are they doing it with? Little Wes Welker, two 2nd year tight ends, Danny Woodhead, and Deion Branch. Like the Packers, the defense also gave up a ton, but they held strong at the goal line a couple times and a lot of the yards were allowed with a big lead, so I’m not worried.

3. Saints. They were one play at the goal line at 0:00 (plus 2-pt attempt) away from forcing overtime against the Packers so just because they lost I’m not going to drop them down to #13 or something crazy like that. And by the way, that a terrible playcall, handing the ball into the hands of a rookie instead of giving your best player (Brees) a chance to win it. I am a little nervous about the Saints’ offensive line; they were very overmatched throughout the game, and the defense and special teams defense played poorly, too (of course, Aaron Rodgers will make a lot of defenses look bad).

4. Ravens. Wow, was I wrong about that one. The Ravens looked like they’ve been preparing all year for this game against the Steelers and they destroyed them on both sides of the ball.
5. Texans. 34-0 at halftime is pretty big, and that was even without their star running back. The Texans have a great quarterback, receivers, backfield, tight end, and defense.
6. Eagles. Lots of playmakers on offense and defense. They still have some major issues at offensive line and linebackers.

7. Chargers. Chargers won the game but same ol’ same ol’. Defense held the Vikings under 200 yards, offense gained over 400 yards. Special teams was the bugaboo last year, and in one game they gave up an opening kickoff for a touchdown and their Pro Bowl kicker got hurt on the play. Their other problem was turnovers, and Rivers had two. Those will have to improve for them to stay this high.

8. Lions. This was one of the many surprises for me over the weekend. As long as Stafford stays healthy the Lions will stay in the Top 10. This was one defense that did come prepared.

9. Steelers. I thought the lockout was supposed to give a stable and strong organization like Pittsburgh an advantage. They were totally run over. The offensive line is bad, and while Big Ben is tough, he’s also a statue with the football and is going to be hit a ton. Look for them to bounce back in a big way at home against the Seahawks.

10. Bears. I don’t really think the Bears are this good but after the defense completely shut down the supposedly mighty Atlanta Falcons and Jay Cutler led the offense well, I can’t put them any lower. Five more sacks for Cutler is cause for concern.

11. Falcons. They are a good team but like I said, they have a tough schedule. That was a game they were supposed to win. They are likely to lose against Vick this weekend. But like the Packers last year, as long as they get into the playoffs they have a shot currently they are tied for the division lead.

12. Cowboys. Big D controlled this game until Romo made two inexcusably poor decisions that cost the game. Now we get to listen to Rex Ryan blabber for another week.

13. Jets. Any win is good, but let’s put this in perspective: Tony Romo threw all over this vaunted Jets defense, and it took two huge mistakes AND a blocked punt returned for a touchdown all in the 4th quarter to pull off this win at home. Jets are overrated. Of course, no one ever complained about being lucky.

14. Bucs. I didn’t see anything from this game, but I was pretty disappointed with the result.
15. Raiders. Broncos couldn’t stop Darren McFadden. Last time the Raiders started 1-0 they made it to the Super Bowl.

16. Giants. Giants are terrible and in big trouble. No overreaction here. The defense came in as the big question mark, but it was the Giants offense that stunk it up. Eli’s first two passes were dropped. A lineman missed a block that led to the deflected pick-6. The Giants couldn’t convert on a 4th and 1 on a completely terrible play call. As for defense and special teams: Rex Grossman threw for 300 yards. Lawrence Tynes (who should have been cut) got a field goal blocked. The least of my worries on this team is Eli Manning but the rest of the team played horrible. This was a game they had to win and they flopped.

17. Rams. Lots of injuries already spell out a long year.
18. Bills. Pretty amazing to see them this high considering they were my #30 a week ago. Good fortunes ought to continue with the Raiders making the cross-country trip next week.
19. Redskins. Rex Grossman shows that on a good day this offense shows life. And the defense came up big, too.
20. Jaguars. A league-high 47 carries helped them control the clock 2:1 over the Titans.
21. Vikings. Adrian Peterson is an amazing running back and ran over a bunch of Chargers, but if the passing game doesn’t show signs of life, he will wear out quick.
22. Dolphins. The defense was supposed to be strong. It will be hard to shake off Monday’s beat down with the Texans coming up. But hey, Chad Henne showed why I believed in him last year. He was throwing the ball all over the field and even ran one in, too.
23. Titans. When you have the best running back in football, why do you only attempt 13 rushes? It was a 2 point game!

24. Chiefs. Arrowhead Stadium was supposed to be one of the best home field advantages. Then the Chiefs lose by 34 at home to the Bills. And losing their best defensive player for the season does not bode well for the future. Coach Haley gets my favorite quote of the week: “We weren’t prepared for this game.” If you weren’t prepared for the first game of the season, what have you been doing for the last two months?

25. Colts. Talk about poor planning.
26. 49ers. Ted Ginn Jr. has one big highlight game per year, so what happens for the next 15 for the 49ers?
27. Cardinals. Did they really just let a rookie who completed less than half his passes in preseason throw for over 400 yards against them?
28. Broncos. You used a first-round pick on him, why not see what Tim Tebow can do? The Broncos won’t be any good this year anyway. All the injuries they sustained to key players will keep it that way.
29. Seahawks. On a positive note, they actually outgained the 49ers. On a negative note, their special teams wins the prize for worst unit in the league.
30. Bengals. Showing some signs of life with a big game by Cedric Benson. Is the defense that good or was the Browns defense that bad?
31. Panthers. Cam Newton looked really good all around in his first NFL start. That doesn’t mean wins will soon follow (especially with the Packers coming to town), but the future looks brighter than it did a week ago.
32. Browns. They knocked the Bengals’ starting quarterback out and they still couldn’t hold on? A loss in Indianapolis against the No-Manning-Colts next week would end their season.

NFL Season Predictions

My Predictions

The Usual Suspects
Because of division alignment there are a few teams that are pretty much guaranteed to be in the playoffs. Maybe not guaranteed, but I feel comfortable writing them in now. The Patriots are automatic. The defending champion Packers are unlikely to be overthrown in their division. Steelers are solid. While the Chargers missed the playoffs for the first time in 5 years, that probably helps make them a more solid lock this year since they get scheduling advantages. And unfortunately, a team from the NFC West is guaranteed a playoff spot. The Eagles, Saints and Falcons are among the league’s very best teams, but their division rivals are very competitive and a playoff berth will be hard-fought.

Dark Horses
Teams that could surprise many fans with a big season and find their way into the Playoff Picture are (in order of likelihood): the Buccaneers, Cowboys, Giants, Lions, Titans,, and Dolphins.

Likely Busts
Every year it seems five teams don't return to the playoffs the next year. Teams I am down on are the Colts, Bears, Jets, Chiefs, and any team that suffers a key injury/injuries. Other teams that could not be as competitive as some expect are the Vikings, Jaguars, and Lions (yes, I also listed them as a surprise candidate).

Season Standings
NFC EAST
*Eagles 11-5
Cowboys 10-6
Giants 9-7
Redskins 5-11

NFC NORTH
*Packers 12-4
Lions 9-7
Bears 7-9
Vikings 6-10

NFC SOUTH
*Saints 11-5
*Falcons 10-6
*Buccaneers 10-6
Panthers 3-13

NFC WEST
*Rams 8-8
49ers 7-9
Cardinals 7-9
Seahawks 6-10

AFC EAST
*Patriots 13-3
*Jets 9-7
Dolphins 5-11
Bills 4-12

AFC NORTH
*Steelers 13-3
*Ravens 11-5
Browns 6-10
Bengals 3-13

AFC SOUTH
*Texans 10-6
Titans 8-8
Colts 7-9
Jaguars 4-12

AFC WEST
*Chargers 12-4
Chiefs 8-8
Raiders 7-9
Broncos 6-10

NFC Championship
Packers over Falcons
AFC Championship
Patriots over Chargers

SUPER BOWL
Patriots over Packers

MVP: Tom Brady
Offensive Player of the Year: Chris Johnson
Defensive PotY: Troy Polamalu
Offensive Rookie otY: Greg Little
Defensive Rookie otY: Von Miller
Coach otY: Raheem Morris

I initially picked the Chargers as champs, giving me a win-win with them or the Patriots. but that is kinda cheap. I like the Patriots and I think they will be the best team.)

2011 PPP, part 4

The Season Kickoff game is on so I guess I better get this posted right away.

Two Minute Drill through the AFC NORTH

Steelers are a solid, deep, physical team with a good coach, quarterback, and defense. Of all the teams heading into a season after no real offseason, they are set up to succeed. Their most important player is Troy Polamalu.
Forecast = 13-3

Ravens are another solid team. The offense replaced Derrick Mason with Lee Evans, and while Todd Heap is gone they have a Cougar Dennis Pitta that ought to see some good action. They picked up fullback Vonta Leach from the Texans, who helped lead the way for Arian Foster to lead the league in rushing and touchdowns so this bodes well for Ray Rice. If Joe Flacco improves this could be a Super Bowl team.
Forecast = 11-5

Colt McCoy is showing signs that he can be a great NFL quarterback. Unfortunately, he plays in Cleveland and the Browns don't have many weapons for him. Their best player is Joshua Cribbs who returns kicks, so the new rules will negatively affect the Browns. Peyton Hillis has the best biceps in the NFL and showed that this team can even abuse the Patriots, so if he can stay on the field it bodes well for this team. Browns will be competitive.
Forecast = 6-10

Bengals will not be competitive. Rookie quarterback with a rookie wide receiver, 2nd year receiver and 2nd year tight end, and one of the worst starting running backs in the league. The defense is terrible. The only question will be whether they draft Andrew Luck or if Andrew Dalton shows them enough to pass on Luck.
Forecast = 3-13

Two Minute Drill through the AFC SOUTH

Texans coach Gary Kubiak is under the most pressure of anyone in the NFL this season. The team hired Wade Phillips as DC, Peyton Manning may miss the season, Titans got a new coach and QB, and the Jags cut their starting quarterback a few days ago. That being said, this is the most talented team in the division with the most playmakers on both sides of the ball. This team ought to win 11 games, but Kubiak is an underachiever.
Forecast = 10-6

A team with one of the best running backs, a good offensive line, a good veteran quarterback, and some quality receivers sounds like they ought to be pretty strong offense. That's the Titans. There is bust potential, however, as this is one of those teams going with a new coach and new quarterback and a star receiver and running back that missed the whole preseason, and the defense will probably not be very good. I see some surprise potential, especially since they get the vulnerable Jags in Week 1 and Peyton won't torment them.
Forecast = 8-8

Everyone familiar with the NFL will say that Peyton Manning is the most valuable player to his team in the league. Without him (and I expect him to either miss the whole season or at least half and be less effective in the other half), the oldColts just doesn't have enough talent. Manning makes Clark, Collie (go Cougars!), Garcon, and Wayne the playmakers they have been. Dwight Freeney is one of the best defensive players in the league.
Forecast = 7-9

Maurice Jones-Drew is coming off knee surgery, his backup is out for the year, they are going with a new quarterback (Luke McCown and probably rookie Blaine Gabbert later), and they lost their best receiver before the season. I'm not optimistic about the Jaguars. MJD says he is healthy and can possibly be his explosive self, but the other defense will be waiting for him. Jack Del Rio is on the hottest seat.
Forecast = 4-12

NFL Week 1 Preview

Hope is the word of the day. Optimism flows freely as we have escaped the fog of lockouts and chaos of free agency and arrived at Week 1 of the NFL season, one of the happiest times of the year. And in 32 cities all sights are set on the playoffs 18 weeks ahead. But everyone has a chance, everybody starts 0-0 and in the NFL, something crazy can happen any given Sunday.

(Technically it’s 31 cities since the Jets and Giants share the Big Apple, and they’ve added tons of Thursday games along with the usual Monday Night Football games, so the madness is not stuck on Sunday.)

Key Matchups

1. Packers vs. Saints: Thursday night on NBC. The NFL is starting things off right with a matchup of the last two Super Bowl champs and two of the best teams in the league. This ought to be a great game to watch as both quarterbacks are very accurate and the offenses are explosive.
2. Ravens vs. Steelers: Sunday early on CBS. Football fans are lucky to get this matchup twice every year (sometimes thrice). The two toughest teams battle in a black n’ blue showdown. The Thursday game features the finesse; this one will be an ugly, physical, ground and pound.

Other Headline Games

1. Texans vs. Colts: People in Houston rejoiced as the Texans finally defeated Peyton Manning in the 2010 opener, only to go 5-10 the rest of the way as the Colts marched on. No Manning this week, and the pendulum looks like it’s tipping Houston’s way.
2. Jets vs. Cowboys: The NFL honors 9/11 with a game that Rex Ryan is calling “the most important of his career.” Even in Week 1, this is a very critical game for both teams, and the winner will have a good chance to get in the playoffs while the loser will be unlikely.

Upset Alert

• Titans over Jaguars
• Rams over Eagles

Stone Cold Picks

- Buccaneers over Lions. I’m the biggest fan on the Josh Freeman cheering team.
- Steelers over Ravens. Big Ben is just better than Joe Flacco. Troy Polomalu will grab an interception.
- Texans over Colts. Colts have no chance with Kerry Collins in Houston.
- Giants over Redskins. Practically the whole defense is injured for the Giants, but Bradshaw and Jacobs will run all over the Washington defense and the G-Men will outscore Rex Grossman's Redskins.

My Eliminator Lock

- Chiefs over Bills

2011 PPP, part 3

Okay, my first two posts/4 division previews were a bit long and the season starts in two days and I gotta do week 1 report, so these will be quicker and to the point.

NFC NORTH

It is no secret that the Packers’ championship was one of the most improbable in football’s history when you consider how many key and long-term injuries they sustained throughout the year. They’ve done a great job drafting and keeping the cupboard well-stocked. The offensive line has not been good the last couple years and Aaron Rodgers has been hit a ton, but it showed significant improvement down the stretch last year. Lots of great target receivers and several useful running backs give Rodgers a great chance at an MVP season. His completion percentage and yards per attempt have increased each year. The defense is filled with playmakers. They have a lot of challenging games but they still ought to be favorites in every one.
Forecast = 12-4

Lions have been down for a while but that has also been coupled with rebuilding and picking up great pieces. Calvin Johnson is an incredible physical specimen and seems to continue to improve. The two other biggest playmakers on offense have been riddled with injuries, Matthew Stafford and Jahvid Best, and if they can stay on the field this could be one explosive offense. Suh fortifies the defense but he’s not alone. Schedule is an undeniable factor in judging a team’s win potential, and when you start the season in Tampa Bay and later play the Falcons, Saints and Chargers, plus the Packers twice, it will be hard to qualify for a playoff spot.
Forecast = 8-8

Mike Martz came in and the Bears offense went from 25th in 2009 to 30th in 2010. The new kickoff rules affect the Bears probably more than any team and not in a good way. The offensive line is still terrible. Cutler has no leadership skills. The Bears won the division last year but I still don’t think they are very good and facing the NFC’s best 3 teams the first 3 weeks (Falcons, Saints, Packers) will put them in an early hole.
Forecast = 7-9

Vikings were the most disappointing team last year but that can be attributed to Brett Favre and Brad Childress for not getting him out of there quicker. The receivers McNabb has to work with are among the league’s worst groups and a short training camp will make it that much harder. Look for Adrian Peterson to see career highs in carries. The defense has been one of the league’s best but the group is on the decline. New coach, new quarterback, top receiver gone, hard to see much success here.
Forecast = 6-10

NFC WEST
Flip a coin. Seriously. All these teams could reach 7-9 and it was not easy to pick a winner with 8 wins.

Rams had the highway to a playoff game until they got embarrassed by the Seahawks the last game. They probably have the division’s best quarterback in Sam Bradford, but remember that he has only played 1 NFL season. They are probably the most talented team in the division, but the first half of their schedule includes the Eagles, at Giants, Ravens, at Packers and Cowboys, and a home game against the Saints, with a game in Pittsburgh towards the end. 8 wins is no guarantee.
Forecast = 8-8

Call me crazy, but the 49ers may not be one of the worst teams. Alex Smith probably has the best receivers he’s had to work with in his career and the rushing game should still be strong. Jim Harbaugh ought to put some life into this team, although a full offseason would really have helped. The defense has a lot of new faces and probably won’t be very good. Their schedule looks less daunting than the Rams.
Forecast = 7-9

Andy Reid and Ken Wisenhunt sure seem to like Kevin Kolb. It’s true he can only be an improvement from the league’s worst passing game. The Cardinals gave up an important piece on defense for him. Beanie Wells gets the spotlight in the backfield but he has never looked spectacular in the NFL. The Cardinals should start off with a win (against Carolina) and finishes with four easy games so the division crown and a playoff birth are in reach. It all really depends on Kevin Kolb.
Forecast = 7-9

The best thing going for the Seahawks is the 12th Man and the league’s toughest road trip (see the playoffs last year), especially as several of their toughest games (Falcons, Ravens, Eagles) are all long road trips for the opponent. Other than that, they have a bad offense, a bad defense, and a new unproven quarterback coming off a short learning period.
Forecast = 6-10

2011 PPP, part 2

AFC WEST
This division had the oddest season I can remember. The Chargers had the NFL’s #1 ranked offense AND defense and still missed the playoffs. The Raiders swept the division (6-0) and still missed the playoffs. And the Chiefs went from 10 wins in 3 seasons to 10 wins in one year to take the division. AFC West plays the NFC North.

Philip Rivers never had his primary receiving corps all together and still managed to throw for a NFL-high 4700 yards and 8.71 yards per attempt. With his favorite deep-threat Vincent Jackson here and happy for a full year those numbers could repeat. The defense added veterans Takeo Spikes and Bob Sanders and drafted Corey Luiget and that top defense could be better. One of the major rule changes devalues special teams, the Chargers’ bugaboo. The schedule has plenty of challenging games but also has lots of very winnable ones (Dolphins, Bills, Jags, and Broncos and Raiders a couple times). Norv Turner has a reputation for not winning in the NFL, but the Chargers still ought to have the division clinched by December.
Key Games: w2 @ Patriots, w7 @ Jets, w8 @ Chiefs, w9 Packers, w15 Ravens.
Forecast = 12-4

Chiefs faced off against a lot of bad teams last year and took advantage. Seriously, they played only 2 playoff bound teams. Jamaal Charles is one of the most exciting players in the league, and I like their coaching staff. Dwayne Bowe finally reached his potential and led the NFL in receiving touchdowns. They have some playmakers on defense. Can the Chiefs do it again? The schedule is very tough. They will have to sweep the Broncos and Raiders and a couple of the key games below to grab a wild card.
Key Games: Chargers x2, w2 @ Lions, w5 @ Colts, w11 @ Patriots, w12 Steelers, w13 @ Bears, w14 @ Jets, w15 Packers.
Forecast = 8-8

I liked Raiders’ head coach Tom Cable and seeing him get fired was one of the offseason’s dumbest moves (Al Davis gets that honor nearly every year). The defense lost lockdown cornerback Ndamdi Asomugha and will replace him with a rookie 2nd round pick. They lost their best receiving threat Zach Miller and replaced him with a below average TE Kevin Boss. Darren McFadden finally had a monster season with nearly 1700 yards and gives them a chance to win many games. Jason Campbell has a new coach or offensive coordinator every year; poor guy needs some stability. The o-line is weak and young and the wide receiving group is among the NFL’s worst, so Campbell will have lots of headaches.
Key Games: Chargers/Chiefs x2, w3 Jets, w4 Patriots, w5 @ Texans, w14 @ Packers.
Forecast = 7-9

Much of the preseason spotlight was on the Broncos’ quarterback situation and since Orton didn’t get traded there is really no debate on who runs this team. Josh McDaniels was a terrible coach who ran the team into the ground similar to Isiah Thomas’ Knicks and Omar Minaya’s Mets. It will take a couple years to get them back on track. Honestly, the best thing that could possibly happen for the Broncos is for them to lose a ton and qualify for the Andrew Luck sweepstakes, but they will probably be a little better than that. The defense was dreadful, especially after sack leader Elvis Dumervill missed the season. With his return and the drafted Von Miller new in town, they could be competitive.
Forecast = 6-10

AFC EAST
The Jets and Patriots have become one of the league’s hottest rivalries, and it’s amazing how contrasting the teams really are. Rex Ryan vs. Bill Bellichek, Mark Sanchez vs. Tom Brady. AFC East plays the NFC East.


Tom Brady had a magical regular season, setting a record in interception-less passes and having a sky-high quarterback rating, leading the Patriots to a 14-2 record and winning an MVP. Unfortunately, this was his second magical season that crashed in the playoffs. With no Moss distractions and a happy Ochocinco, the two 2nd year TEs Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, and two new young running backs adding lots of depth, the offense should again be the highest-scoring. The defense has been one of the youngest the last few years but by now they all have lots of experience. If Albert Haynesworth revives his career he can add some much-needed regular pressure on the quarterback.
Key Games: Jets x2, w2 Chargers, w8 @ Steelers, w12 @ Eagles, w13 Colts
Forecast = 12-4

Jets sure make a lot of noise and it doesn’t matter if it’s during the season, the playoffs, offseason, or preseason. Rex Ryan still thinks they will win the Super Bowl, but the Jets didn’t improve their team anywhere. They are counting on Mark Sanchez to blossom into an above-average quarterback but he lost three of his receivers and added two: one that has tried to retire 3 years in a row (Mason) and one that just got out of prison (Plaxico). One person that will help Sanchez is Santonio Holmes, who should be a (the only) consistent contributor on offense. Shonn Greene was supposed to carry the ground game but he only topped 75 rushing yards once last year. They have four road playoff wins the last two years but they’ve also had more stinkers during the season than any great team. The defense will be strong like last year but the offense is below average at best. This was also a team that took advantage of some great special teams plays, and those will be hard to repeat with the new kickoff rules.
Key Games: Patriots x2, w1 Cowboys, w3 @ Raiders, w4 @ Ravens, w15 @ Eagles, w16 Giants
Forecast = 8-8

A year ago I stated that I trust in Chad Henne and Tony Sparano, then the Dolphins went on to have one of the league’s worst offenses, and Henne gets booed in training camp. Brandon Marshall was supposed to be one of the best upgrades for any team but Henne-to-Marshall accounted for a pedantic 3 touchdowns. For what seems like the first time in their careers, Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams played 16 games but didn’t account for much production. They are gone and replaced with the explosive but erratic Reggie Bush and rookie Daniel Thomas. If Bush gets hurt early on and Thomas doesn’t produce the team will have to look elsewhere for help. The defense is projected to be a top-10 unit, and Henne can only go up from last year. The Dolphins are a team with a wide range of potential from 10 wins to 13 losses.
Forecast = 6-10

I haven’t heard much about the Bills, other than that they traded away one of their best receivers Lee Evans. Ryan Fitzpatrick finally emerged as a capable quarterback leader and had some nice connections with Stevie Johnson, although it will be hard for Johnson to repeat with all the double coverage he will see. Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller have potential but weren’t very good behind a weak offensive line and it hasn’t improved much (and hasn’t in years). They have some potential playmakers on defense, but overall this team lacks talent, will be playing from behind a lot, and will likely be players in the Andrew Luck draft party.
Forecast = 4-12

2011 PPP, part 1

I’ve never been so excited for football. I watched more preseason games than any other season. They should have a lockout every year!

I know I haven’t done a blog entry in nearly a year, but the dawn of a new NFL season is a happy occasion deserving of an article. So here is my annual Preseason Preview and Predictions (PPP). It’s a lot of reading so come back to finish; I’ve also divided it into several installments, likely covering 2 divisions at a time.

The NFL prides itself on parity, thanks to a rotating schedule, draft, and an unfortunate surplus of injuries. Some facts:
• We’ve had a new champion the last 5 years and 6 of the last 7.
• 24 of 32 teams have appeared at least once in the playoffs over the last 4 years.
• A turnover of 5 new playoff teams has occurred every year for an extended period of time
So there is a good chance this season’s field of 12 playoff teams will see some surprises like last year’s Chiefs and Bears.

One of the most crucial variables that determine NFL success is usually health, or injury prevention (see last year’s Cowboys and 2008 Patriots). Of course, the Green Bay Packers won the most recent Super Bowl despite piling up the league’s most prolific lineup on Injured Reserve. Injuries are guaranteed to happen but are impossible to predict. There are few teams that have significant injury concerns right now (Giants’ defense, Colt’s Peyton Manning), but everyone else (besides a few running backs with sore hamstrings and knees) is mostly healthy. A favorite phrase of football writers is “They should win, barring injuries.” Since injuries are guaranteed to happen but impossible to predict, I won’t use the phrase or include them in my forecast, although significant injuries can seriously scramble the standings.

NFC EAST
This has been a very competitive division for many years. Last season, the Eagles won the division, Cowboys before that, and two years earlier the Giants won the Super Bowl. This division also has four of the best rivalries in the NFL: Eagles/Giants, Eagles/Cowboys, Giants/Cowboys, Cowboys/Redskins. NFC East plays the AFC East.


Eagles improved their defense and offensive depth. Michael Vick is one of the very few superstars in the NFL (Chris Johnson is another, I can’t really think of any others). But they do have serious issues with their offensive line, one of the most important parts of a team. Vick had a dream season a year ago, and while some say he can’t repeat, he has so many weapons around him that an MVP-type season isn’t unlikely. With Vick, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, LeSean McCoy, and eventually Steve Smith, this offense is must-see-TV. Even their backups are solid (Vince Young and Ronnie Brown). They made lots of big acquisitions on defense and their cornerback collection of Ndamdi Asomugha, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and Asante Samuel look like the league’s best on paper. Linebackers are weak. But there is a lot to like, and Andy Reid always gets the best out of his team.
Key Games: Giants/Cowboys x2, w2 @ Falcons , w12 Patriots, w15 Jets
Forecast = 11-5

Cowboys were a mess last season, but Romo is healthy now and the team was a lot more competitive once Jason Garrett became the head coach. The defense was awful but the addition of Rob Ryan as DC ought to bring a big lift. Passing is the new big deal in football, and with Tony Romo, Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, and Jason Witten, this team has one of the best air games. Felix Jones and Dez Bryant are big breakout candidates.
Key Games: Giants/Eagles x2, w1 @ Jets, w6 @ Patriots, w15 @ Bucs
Forecast = 10-6

Giants had a dreadful preseason. They lost a half-dozen cornerbacks to injury, the first team offense had trouble getting into the end zone, and turnovers continue to plague them. Last season the special teams was dreadful, and thankfully Matt Dodge is gone. Eli Manning had 30 turnovers, and the team’s total of 42 was tops in the league. The meltdown against the Eagles, was legendary, blowing something like a 31-7 lead crowned by DJax returning a punt for a touchdown to end it. And you know what? The Giants still finished with a 10-6 record, only missing the playoffs due to a tiebreaker with the Packers. Eli Manning isn’t an elite NFL quarterback, but he’s a quality top-10, and a top-10 NFL quarterback with a Super Bowl MVP is in pretty fine company. The Giants didn’t make any great additions this offseason and did lose two important safety-blankets on offense (Steve Smith and Kevin Boss). I still really like Eli’s weapons—Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Brandon Jacobs. Look for the Giants to pound the ball in the running game. I’m not worried about the offense. Eli won’t have 30 turnovers again. The defense can still put a lot of pressure on the opposing quarterback. But the secondary is mighty thin and looked really bad this preseason, and the special teams still looks very weak.
Key Games: Eagles/Cowboys x2, w9 @ Patriots, w12 @ Saints, w13 Packers, w16 @Jets
Forecast = 9-7

Quarterback is the most important position in sports, and no team has more uncertainty than the Redskins. Whether it is John Beck (go Cougars!) or Rex Grossman, neither inspire much fan confidence. Mike Shanahan usually gets pretty good production from his running backs, but the trio of Tim Hightower, Roy Helu and Ryan Torain won’t keep an opposing coach up at night. Santana Moss is the only real receiving threat. The defense was near the bottom last year. And the other three division rivals are really good. I feel bad for John Beck, the only chance he had before now was with a depleted Dolphins team that went 1-15 that had nobody around him, and now this team lacking weapons that is destined for last place in the division.
Forecast = 5-11

NFC SOUTH
I believe this is the strongest division in the NFL. There was a stretch where the last place team won the division the following year like 5 years in a row, but Carolina is a mile behind the other three teams. NFC South plays the AFC South.

Maybe it was just a Super Bowl honeymoon, but from the midseason head-scratching loss to the Cardinals (Go Max Hall, another Cougar!) to the legendary playoff upset to the Seahawks, the Saints were disappointing last year. They have made some quality improvements this offseason, replacing the oft-injured Reggie Bush with a comparable Darren Sproles and drafted Heisman winner Mark Ingram; and adding quality defensive lineman like Cam Jordan and the mammoth Shaun Rogers. I have a lot of faith in Sean Payton and Gregg Williams (DC) coaching. Drew Brees threw 22 interceptions last year. That’s near the number Eli Manning threw. Look for that number to cut in half closer to the 11 from the previous year. The young TE Jimmy Graham, another bullet for Drew Brees to use, looks like a breakout candidate. Look for the Saints to “bounce back” and compete as one of the league’s best teams.
Key Games: Falcons/Bucs x2, w1 @ Packers, w3 Texans, w7 Colts, w12 Giants
Forecast = 11-5

Falcons were the NFC’s best regular season team but got blown out in their first playoff game against the eventual champion Packers. This team has been primarily a ground team with stalwart Michael Turner pounding away, but look for Matt Ryan to take control of the offense and air it out a lot more, especially with rookie Julio Jones. That should take pressure off Roddy White, and also allow Harry Douglas to fill a Wes Welker-type role. Last year the Falcons took advantage of a schedule that favored them above the Saints. This year the schedule has swung the other way. Like the Saints and Bucs, the Falcons play the Colts and Texans from the AFC South, but the Falcons face them both on the road while the Bucs and Saints get them at home. They also have to travel to Seattle, one of the toughest road trips, and that is sandwiched between a game in Tampa Bay and a home game against the Packers. 8 of their first 9 games are very challenging. So while this team looks even better than last year’s squad that went 13-3, wins will be much tougher to come by. But if they get in the playoffs they are contenders.
Key Games: Saints/Bucs x2, w1 @ Bears, w2 Eagles, w4 @ Seahawks, w5 Packers, w7 @ Lions, w9 @ Colts, w13 @ Texans.
Forecast = 10-6

Ask who will be the best quarterback in five years and many people (myself included) respond with the Buccaneers’ Josh Freeman. Drafted behind Mark Sanchez and Matthew Stafford, he looks better. I don’t remember the exact stats, but in his two years starting he has led like 8 or 9 4th quarter comebacks. He is big, strong and smart, and surprisingly was the best running quarterback besides Michael Vick last year. I was totally amazed that the Bucs improved so much last year relying so much on young unproven players but they proved a lot winning 10 games. The defense is very young, putting complete dependence in rookies and second year players. The offense will be fine, but the defense will make or break the Bucs’ season.
Key Games: Saints/Falcons x2, w4 Colts, w10 Texans, w11 @ Packers, w12 @ Titans, w15 Cowboys.
Forecast = 10-6

Panthers won only 2 games last year against the lowly 49ers and Cardinals. They re-signed a lot of their main players, but other than Cool Cam Newton they didn’t really add anybody new. The ground attack of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart and Mike Goodson should carry this team, but how successful can they be against 8 or 9 man defensive fronts? The Panthers made Charles Johnson the highest paid defensive player but that doesn’t mean he is the best defensive player. Their last 6 games are brutal. Especially in this division, the Panthers will be in the running again for #1 pick in the 2012 draft.
Forecast = 3-13