me vs. Vegas: NFL style

I am not a betting man, but the Wise Guys in Vegas have made it known how they think the NFL season will go. The Team Season Win totals odds interest me a lot. Here are a few projections that catch my eye.

Bills: +/- 8 wins
I’m taking the OVER. They do have some tough games on the schedule (two versus the Patriots, on road in San Francisco and one in Houston), but the back half of their schedule is a piece of cake. This is a 10-win team.

Panthers: +/- 7.5 wins
I’m taking the UNDER. Cam Newton busted onto the scene and had one heluva season. He looks like one special player. But sophomore slumps seem to happen more often than not as defensive coordinators figure out the scouting report, and I don’t trust the pieces around Cam to break out again. They won 6 games last year, and with one of the toughest schedules ahead this year they will not increase that total.

Bears: +/- 9.5 wins
I’m taking the OVER. Injuries sunk them last year, but here’s hoping that Jay Cutler and Matt Forte can stay on the field. I love the addition of Brandon Marshall, and Lovie Smith’s defense with Urlacher, Briggs, and Julius Peppers should stay near the top. They probably won’t have any long winning streaks with trips to Green Bay, San Francisco, and Detroit planned but I like them to win 11 games.

Browns: +/- 5.5 wins
I’m taking the UNDER. The Bengals fooled me last year, but it’s hard for me to trust a team who’s top two playmakers have yet to play an NFL game. Especially as Trent Richardson is already coming in with injuries. Throw in 6 games against the Ravens, Steelers, and Bengals, and matchups with everybody in the NFC East and AFC West; well for that matter, I don’t think they will be favored in any game this season. It will be good experience-building for Brandon Weedon but I think the Browns will be one of the two worst teams in the NFL.

Patriots: +/- 12 wins
I’m taking the OVER. It’s not easy to win 13 games three straight seasons but this Patriots team is loaded. Tom Brady has everything he needs: a deep threat (Brandon Lloyd), the best slot receiver (Wes Welker), and two monster tight ends (Gronk and Hernandez). They don’t have a proven running back, which means Brady should easily break 5,000 yards again. The defense is improved (it can’t get much worse), and the only elite quarterback they face all year is Peyton Manning once. Other than a game in Baltimore, the two other marquee matchups are both in Foxboro (Texans and 49ers in December). Take 13 wins to the bank.

Cardinals: +/- 7 wins
I’m taking the UNDER. I just don’t think the Cards are that good. And they got no favors from the scheduling people, traveling to New England, Green Bay, and Atlanta. And I don’t think they are necessarily good enough to beat the Eagles, Bills, Lions or Bears at home. This looks like a 5 win team to me.