NFL musical chairs

I love this time of year. Baseball is down to the last 25 or so games and the NFL is ready for Opening Kickoff. It's good times even for Red Sox fans because Tom Brady is still in a Patriots' jersey.

One of life's most amazing “facts” is that every year there are five new playoff teams in the NFL. Despite only six spots in each conference, there has been a turnover of five teams every year for the last fifteen years. You can put it in the bank. And it offers great hope to fans of every team.

Last year there were six: the Giants, 49ers, Lions, Broncos, Bengals, and Texans. Who will it be this year?

Of course, injuries are the obvious primary factor that creates the turnover in teams. Last year’s missed six included the ravaged Bears, Chiefs, and Peyton-less Colts. And while injuries are predictably likely the victim is unpredictable.

The other significant factor is schedule. Teams that finish in first play more teams that finished in first and last place teams play other teams that finished last. Each team plays two games against the three other teams in their own division. Also, there is somewhat of a rotating schedule. Each division in the NFC plays a division in the AFC on a rotating basis. So you can see why the AFC North could have three playoff teams last year as the Steelers, Ravens and Bengals all got to play the NFC West and the struggling Rams, Seahawks and Cardinals.

It is true that every game in the NFL is tough no matter who you play. But that still bodes well for teams like the Jets and Bills who only have to face one tough cross-conference foe (49ers) while the Titans get to play three (Packers, Lions, and Bears from the NFC North).

The last point about schedule: some places are tougher to play than others and facing a particular team at home or on the road can make all the difference. Traveling to Seattle is never fun, nobody does well against Drew Brees at the Superdome, Arrowhead in Kansas City is a nightmare, and Lambeau Field is about as rough a place as any. It's really luck of the draw.

Miller's FIVE RISERS

1. Bears. Last year they looked like one of the NFC's best teams until all their stars got hurt and fill-in Marion Barber forgot fundamentals of football. Now they finally have a star receiver for the first time since Marty Booker in 2001 with the addition of Brandon Marshall, and the ground duo of Matt Forte and Michael Bush really balance the offense. And there is never an issue with the Bears defense. Things can change, but a schedule with the Colts, Rams, Jags, Panthers, Vikings (twice), Seahawks at home and the Cardinals (8 very winnable games) looks pretty good on September 2.

2. Eagles. Everything went wrong for most of the season. In over half their 8 losses they blew a 4th-quarter lead, which means they should have won at least 10 or 11 games. Fans and media are putting pressure on Andy Reid, but after a full year together the defense will be better. The Eagles finished strong last year winning their last 4 by an average of 20 points, and that could flow into 2012.

3. Chiefs. Really, the Chiefs, Raiders or Chargers. The AFC West is such an even group, with the last-place Chiefs finishing just one game behind the first-place Broncos. And that was with a ton of key players ending on injured reserve (superstars Jamaal Charles and Eric Berry, and quarterback Matt Cassell). With a resurgent Charles welcoming Peyton Hillis (a year removed from the Madden Curse), the Chiefs should have the best ground and pound tandem in the NFL.

4. Bills. The Bills started off so well last year, beating the Patriots, Eagles, Chiefs in Kansas City and the Raiders and narrowly losing to the Bengals and Giants, but things just fell apart after that as they lost 8 of their 9 games. The biggest problem was lack of a pass rush, and they secured that with the addition of Super Mario Williams. They have a favorable schedule with games against the Browns, Cardinals, Colts, Jags, Rams, Seahawks (at home), and four games against the Jets and Dolphins.

5. Buccaneers. This is going out on a limb, especially for a team in such a strong division and conference. But you have to like Josh Freeman, especially from his first two seasons and hope that last year's blunders were simply a fluke. The front office gave him a definite boost by adding giant receiver Vincent Jackson, perennial Pro Bowl tight end Dallas Clark, and rookie back Doug Martin. If the defense steps up and either the Falcons or the Saints slip up, Bucs could slip in.