There’s about three weeks left in the baseball season and a lot to be excited about. There’s also a lot to be nervous about, as even the big bad Texas Rangers are only 3 games ahead in their division. The standings could be very crowded when October comes.
Yankees. They just finished a tough ten game stretch against the Orioles and Rays and survived with a 1 game lead in the division. They just can’t seem to get everybody healthy as now that Alex Rodriguez is back, Mark Teixeira may be done for the rest of the way. The one constant all year has been the captain, Derek Jeter who at the ripe age of 38 is closing in on 200 hits to go with his 15 home runs. Everybody else is in a prolonged slump: Swisher (0 for last 28), Ibanez (3 for last 46), Granderson (.125 with 18 strikeouts over last 15 games before Sunday), Andruw Jones (.143 since the All Star break) and Chavez (3 for last 21). I’m seeing way too much Steve Pearce, Chris Dickerson, Casey McGehee, and Jayson Nix to be comfortable. Hiroki Kuroda is a sure thing but after that… C.C. Sabathia simply has not been good and the rest of the rotation is junk. And outside one sparkling stretch in June, they’ve been junk all year. The bullpen was so strong for so long, but it’s hard to trust anyone in that group now. They are still in first and 13 of their last 19 games are against the Red Sox, Blue Jays and Twins so they are still in control but as a Yankees fan, I don’t have much confidence. It will be very nice if Andy Pettitte is able to take the mound next week and be ready when the postseason comes because they sure need him.
Schedule: @Red Sox, Rays, Blue Jays, Athletics, @Twins, @Blue Jays 4, Red Sox
My projected finish: 90-72
Orioles. Defying the odds, that’s what the Orioles have been doing all year. They really control their destiny, with 9 games against the Athletics and Rays, who they are battling with for a playoff spot. Markakis was outstanding in the leadoff spot, and losing him is a big loss. But they still have enough hitting to stay in it (Adam Jones, Mark Reynolds, Matt Weiters, J.J. Hardy, Manny Machado, and Nate McLouth are all hitting well). They just got their ace Jason Hammel back off the DL. 25-7 in one run games is the stat that is making ALL the difference. Since Shields just pitched and Price is nursing a sore shoulder, the Orioles have the advantage in this week’s matchup with the Rays, and they should miss Anderson and Griffin in the A’s series, too.
Schedule: Rays, @Athletics, @Mariners, @Red Sox, Blue Jays, Red Sox, @Rays
My projected finish: 91-71
Rays. With the Rays, it’s all about the pitching. David Price has been the ace he is supposed to be all year and is on course to win his first Cy Young award. He missed a start over the weekend with a sore shoulder, but still has a good shot at 20 wins. James Shields has been very consistent, and young Matt Moore has turned his season around. Fernando Rodney has defied logic by being the best reliever in the American League. Since Evan Longoria returned the bats have heated up, especially B.J. Upton, who hit 3 home runs out of the leadoff spot on Sunday. They have their work cut out for them, with 3 games in New York, 4 in Chicago, and 6 games left with the Orioles.
Schedule: @Orioles, @Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, @Red Sox, @White Sox 4, Orioles
My projected finish: 89-73
Athletics. Despite not having anybody you’ve ever heard about in their starting rotation and not having a very good lineup, they’ve managed to go 43-18 since the beginning of July including four series sweeps in the last month. Brett Anderson’s return has been amazing in the four games he has pitched since being activated (4-0, 0.69 ERA) and is a sure ace, and rookie A.J. Griffin hasn’t lost a game in his young career (5-0, 2.21 ERA). A’s have a real tough stretch the rest of the way, playing the Angels, Orioles, Tigers, Yankees, and two series against the Rangers, with only 3 other games against the Mariners. That is 19 of 22 games against contenders with 13 on the road.
Schedule: @Angels, Orioles, @Tigers, @Yankees, @Rangers 4, Mariners, Rangers
My projected finish: 88-74
Angels. Things are finally heating up for the Halos winning 15-4 in their last 19 games. Greinke has won 5 of his last 6 starts, C.J. Wilson has won his last 3 starts, and Ervin Santana has won 4 of his last 5 decisions. Mike Trout continues to lead the league in hitting and is a human highlight reel in center field. Mark Trumbo has really been slumping since midseason but Torii Hunter is making up for it with a hot second half. All that might be too late after falling to 62-60 last month, but I think they will squeak it out. Both the A’s and Angels have two series left against the Rangers.
Schedule: Athletics, @Royals, Rangers, White Sox, Mariners, @Rangers, @Mariners
My projected finish: 89-73
White Sox. Jose Quintana put the White Sox in a really good position by shutting down the Tigers on Monday night and giving the Sox a three game cushion in the Central. Chris Sale and Jake Peavy haven’t been as dominant as they were the first half of the season, but they are still a scary 1-2 punch. Gavin Floyd is set to come off the DL on Wednesday. One of the craziest stats of the year is, of course, Adam Dunn: he has either homered, struck out or walked in 58% of his plate appearances this year. He missed his 6th game this month on Monday and the White Sox need his presence in the lineup the rest of the way.
Schedule: Tigers, @Twins, @Royals, @Angels, Indians, Rays 4, @Indians
My projected finish: 88-74
Tigers. Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder continue to carry the Tigers, just as they have done all year. Max Scherzer and Doug Fister have really come on in the second half, going 13-3 combined with a 2.60 ERA, really relieving the pressure off Justin Verlander. The schedule definitely falls in the Tigers favor. The 3 games against the A’s are in Detroit, and the last 13 games of the season are against the terrible Twins and Royals, so if they can win some of these games this week in Chicago they will be in good shape.
Schedule: @White Sox, @Indians, Athletics, Twins, Royals, @Twins, @Royals
My projected finish: 87-75
East
Orioles 91-71
Yankees 90-72
Rays 89-73
Central
White Sox 88-74
Tigers 87-75
West
Rangers 93-69
Angels 89-73
Athletics 88-74
To be clear, I am a Yankees fan and hope they win out. But that’s right, the Orioles will come out on top in the East.
The Rays and Angels will have a play-in game, and the winner plays the Yankees in another play-in game in the Wild Card round.
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