a September stop at the Heartbreak Hotel

American poet John Greenleaf Whittier once famously reflected, "For of all sad words of tongue or pen, the saddest are these: 'It might have been.'" I'm sure baseball was on his mind.

The historic collapse of the 2011 Red Sox and Braves is well documented. Unfortunately, we’ve seen some big failures this season, too.

It looks like the Yankees managed to stop the bleeding in time and despite blowing a 10 game division lead, they’ve never fallen out of first place and will play in October. Unfortunately, three teams have not been as fortunate. And I’m not even talking about the dumpster fire in Boston or the flop in Philadelphia.

1. It looked like this was finally the first time in 20 years that the Pittsburgh Pirates would break the streak of futility and break even in the standings. On August 8, 110 games into the season, the Pirates were 16 games over .500, at 63-47 and in playoff position. In the 47 games since then the poor diehards in western Pennsylvania have seen their beloved team nose dive, going 13-34, and will clinch two decades of failure with their next loss. To add insult to injury, Homer Bailey no-hit the Pirates on Friday, and I can’t think of anything more embarrassing in baseball than not being able to get one hit in 9 innings. The fans are left waiting for next year, as they’ve done since 1992. (On a positive note, things do look bright for next year…)

2. On September 18 the surprise Chicago White Sox were 3 games ahead of the Detroit Tigers in the American League Central and looking at a favorable remaining schedule. Only 9 games later the Sox were 2 back of the Tigers and are wondering what happened to their season. This isn’t the A’s, who play 16 of their last 19 games against the Rangers, Yankees, Tigers and Orioles. Chicago has unraveled going 2-9 against a bunch of teams that will finish no better than 3rd place.

3. This summer the Los Angeles Dodgers picked up payroll like it was going out of style. Within four weeks they acquired All Stars Hanley Ramirez, Shane Victorino, Brandon League, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford (injured), and Adrian Gonzalez, and also added Joe Blanton; joining these guys to an already-strong nucleus of Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and Clayton Kershaw. On August 16 the Dodgers were in first place and their division rivals had just lost their best hitter Melky Cabrera to suspension. Here we are a month and a half later and those star-studded Dodgers are 10 games out of first, proving that winning in the standings is a lot different than stacking your Fantasy Baseball roster.

Week 4 Preview

There is no better sight or sound than the true NFL refs making calls with confidence and authority, as we are seeing tonight in the Browns/Ravens game. After debacles in the GB/SEA, NE/BAL, DEN/ATL, SEA/ARI (plus all the others), it is great to see. A lot of people say "how long until we boo these guys?" For me, it will be a long while. I would rather see real NFL refs make a bad call than replacement refs make a bad call any day. They won't be perfect, but the games will be so much more watchable.

Five Big Games

- Giants vs. Eagles: One of the NFL’s biggest rivalries returns in a Northeast showdown on Sunday Night Football. Giants are coming off an impressive win featuring a lot of backups stepping up while the Eagles got hammered by the vicious Cardinals defense. Despite a good record it has been a rough start for Philadelphia as they have 12 turnovers in 3 games, Michael Vick accounting for 9 (he has also been sacked 9 times behind a poor offensive line). The Eagles always seem to play well against New York, winning 6 of the last 7 meetings. Eli Manning leads the league in passing yards and is getting Ahmad Bradshaw and Hakeem Nicks back for this one. The vaunted Giants pass rush only has 6 sacks through three games, but they are excited with this matchup.

- Bears vs. Cowboys: Another matchup of 2-1 teams jockeying for position in the NFC playoff picture . The Bears offense has not taken off like I expected, but at least last week they put together a pretty easy win and a strong defensive performance, and Matt Forte should be back in action this week. Jay Cutler is among the bottom 3 rated starting quarterbacks in the entire league. Dallas hasn’t been doing much scoring either, tied with the Eagles for fewest points, but they have been the stingiest defense, allowing only 137 yards passing per game.

- Saints vs. Packers: A marquee game on the schedule before the season started, now the teams are combined 1-5. Regardless of the call at the end of Monday Night Football, the Packers offense has struggled mightily, scoring only 4 offensive touchdowns. Aaron Rodgers has also been sacked an NFL-high 16 times. The Saints have been able to score but haven’t stopped anyone and are making lots of mistakes. This should be a real high-scoring affair and the Saints will be desperate for a win, while the Packers certainly don’t want to lose their third.

- 49ers vs. Jets: Well, if this is the #4 game what’s that say about the schedule this week? Jets are in their first game without star Derrelle Revis, which means Alex Smith will certainly challenge Antonio Cromartie and Kyle Wilson. San Francisco is coming off a disappointing loss and spent the week in Ohio thinking about it. Mark Sanchez has the lowest completion percentage in the NFL, and the struggling Jets offense faces their toughest test yet against a defense filled with stars, with the Texans on tap in Week 5.

- Vikings vs. Lions: Christian Ponder has been a real quiet surprise, completing over 70% of his throws helping the Vikings start 2-1, including an impressive win over the afore-mentioned 49ers last week. The Lions head back home after two road losses, including a disappointing overtime loss in which starting quarterback Matthew Stafford left with an injury. He should be back.

Upset Alert

(4-2 overall)

Rams over Seahawks
Bears over Cowboys

Miller’s Fearless Picks

(3-1 last week, 5-7 overall)

49ers over Jets. This has a 49ers beatdown written all over it. San Francisco has a methodical offense and the Jets are poor tacklers missing their best cover man. The 49ers are coming off a loss and the Jets coming off a cheap win. 30-10

Chiefs over Chargers. The Arrowhead Advantage has got to happen sometime and a division rivalry is as good a time as any. Chiefs have AFC-worst 9 turnovers and only 1 takeaway, and if that gets corrected, they are running over everybody. Just a gut call that the Chargers fall on the road. 24-23.

Buccaneers over Redskins. Bucs have played tough two road games in a row against the Giants and Cowboys, and have been the toughest run defense in the NFL, which will make it tough for RG3 to do his magic. I look for Freeman to have his first big game of the year. 27-21

Patriots over Bills. Patriots coming off two tough losses, the Bills coming off two easy wins. Welker and Brandon Lloyd finally made a big appearance against the Ravens. Along with Gronk, all three will find the endzone. 41-28

The Rest of the Games

Ravens 30, Browns 16
Rams 17, Seahawks 16
Falcons 40, Panthers 27
Lions 27, Vikings 20
Texans 37, Titans 24
Bengals 24, Jaguars 14
Broncos 31, Raiders 21
Cardinals 27, Dolphins 10
Packers 44, Saints 37
Giants 30, Eagles 28
Bears 24, Cowboys 21

(terrible 3-9 last week, 19-16 overall)

the end of Tebow Time before it even started

Boomer Esiason: Jets should cut Tim Tebow (8/6/2012)

Remember that? That sounded so silly and premature just 6 weeks ago but Boomer obviously knew what he was talking about. This whole Tim Tebow experiment has to stop. What have we seen so far: they don’t use him in a game the Jets are up by 34 points, they don’t use him when they are down by 7, they don’t use him near the goal line, they don’t use him when Mark Sanchez is struggling, they don’t even use him after Mark Sanchez takes a big hit and is obviously affected. Meanwhile, on the rare occasions they do use him they give up after one play. Or use him split wide and throw to him on 3rd down when he doesn’t have a clue what he’s doing. For months we‘ve heard how Tony Sparano has designed all these crazy Tebowmania plays, things the press wasn’t even allowed to watch during practices. They are going to use Tebow 20 plays a game. Well, what was he in this week, four plays? The week before, three? They don't even trust him to throw one pass!

Why is he on the team?

This is just another case of why the Jets are a joke and why you can't take anything they say seriously.

Other than a Week 1 mirage where the Bills turned the ball over four times and had a punt returned the distance, the Jets offense has been just as dismal as expected. They have no running game. They have no depth. Mark Sanchez has completed only 43% of his passes the last two weeks. They waste timeouts and challenges. Next up is the 49ers and Texans, the two best defenses in the NFL. And you know what, the vaunted Jets defense isn’t doing that well, either. They are 28th in run defense (couldn’t even stop a backup running back playing behind a rookie quarterback), are terrible at tackling, and they will be without Revis Island the rest of the season.

Jets are 2-1 and in first place, yes they are. They started 2-0 last year, too, finishing 8-8. This year not even with Tim Tebow will they reach that mark. So why continue the circus? Cut Tebow and get some focus.

not so easy in the Big Easy

Everybody knew that Peyton Manning is great, but perhaps it took us witnessing the team without him last year to realize just how valuable he is. We are getting the same thing this year with the other Payton (with an “a”), Sean, the coach of the Saints.

In a season already filled with surprises, the biggest shocker in Week 3 is the same thing from the opener, how disappointing the New Orleans Saints are. We all know they are 0-3, including two losses at home where they were 8-0 in 2011.

Obviously, the whole Bountygate mess has hurt an already bad defense. They simply cannot stop the run, and it’s going from bad to worse. Against the Redskins they allowed 153 yards (3.5 per carry). The Panthers ran for 219 yards (5.3 avg), and this week the Chiefs went wild for 273 yards, over SIX yards per carry!

Many people, myself included, figured Drew Brees is as good a coach and leader on the field as you need, but that clearly is not the case. Drew Brees and the offense are not getting it done in the 4th quarter with the game on the line. Brees threw an interception that sealed the game each of the first two weeks, and against the Chiefs the Saints gave up a safety on their last possession that resulted in KC getting 5 points to tie the game.

The only other 0-3 team is the Browns. At least they can say that the Eagles, Bengals and Bills are all 2-1. One of the most amazing things about the Saints this year is not just that they are 0-3, but their losses are to teams that are 0-6 against everyone else! Saints lose to teams that have losses to the Buccaneers (1-2) and Rams (1-2). When you put it that way, the Saints are the worst team in football! And with a trip to Green Bay next week, trip to Denver later in October, and games with Philadelphia, Atlanta and San Francisco in the upcoming schedule, it isn’t going to get better anytime soon.

BYU blows it

Against the Broncos, Bronco Mendenhall made one of the dumbest coaching moves of the year in the BYU vs. Boise State football game Thursday night.

Offensively, BYU was terrible all night. The Cougars gained 95 yards on their last drive of the game, and that was equal to what they gained the whole rest of the game. They turned the ball over 5 times in the game. The starting quarterback was benched in the third quarter and replaced by a freshman quarterback, a quarterback who probably couldn’t throw better than I could.

And yet in the middle of the fourth quarter they trailed by only one touchdown as the Cougar defense stifled the Boise State team. The Broncos only score came on an interception return. They have a kicker they couldn’t trust, who missed a 33 yard chip-in field goal earlier in the game. In the second half Boise State couldn’t buy a yard.

Now like I said, BYU trailed by 7 points in the fourth quarter. Miraculously, the Cougars put a drive together led by the legs of freshman Taysom Hill, and scored a touchdown. With 4:40 left and no time outs. And BYU coach went for 2. WHAT?! For the first time BYU finally had some momentum and Bronco put the entire game into the hands of a freshman, a freshman who was missing wide open receivers 5 yards away repeatedly. Overthrowing, underthrowing, not seeing other guys wide open. He can run and made some plays that last drive but come on, he was painful to watch. And with a chance to tie the game against a team who can’t move the ball and can’t kick, the coach gives the freshman the ball to win it. Hill rolls out, here comes the pressure, there is nowhere to run, he throws a bad pass to a covered receiver, and the ball falls incomplete.

Why on earth would you go for 2? There was NO WAY that Boise State give Hill any chance to run. That play had ZERO chance to work. Why would you put so much pressure on a freshman backup quarterback, and how could you trust him to come through against a defense that only allowed 200 yards the whole game?

BYU had no timeouts; they were not going to get the ball again in regulation. And the way Boise State could not do anything on offense, I felt pretty comfortable going into overtime.

I could sort of understand the choice had the game been 38-37 and you haven’t been able to stop the other team the whole game, but here? Kick the point after. Tie the game. Give your whole team (offense, defense, special teams) a chance to win the game and beat a Top 25 team on the road. BYU’s defense was the best unit the whole game and has been stellar all year. Instead, Bronco put the whole game into the hands of Taysom Hill, a kid who won’t even play next week, to roll out and make a pass that is difficult for even experienced quarterbacks to make, and BYU lost 7-6. If you trust Hill so much, why would you then defend Riley Nelson after the game, saying that he will be your quarterback the next game? Bronco Mendenhall let down his team and the entire BYU population around the country with that decision.

Week 3 Preview

A lot of crazy things happened last week, including the Patriots, Ravens, Saints and Cowboys losing and the Giants narrowly avoiding defeat. Home teams went 14-2 after a more reasonable 9-7 in season openers. I'm picking 9 road teams this week. For people in Eliminator/Survivor/Knockout pools, you should be very nervous about this week as I see potential for any team to get upset. Do you trust the 0-2 Saints? Of the 2-0 49ers on the road? Packers in Seattle?

Five Big Games

- Patriots vs. Ravens: A rematch of the AFC Championship game won by a missed field goal. (Ironic that the Patriots lost last week the same way?) Both of these top AFC teams are coming off disappointing losses and neither wants to continue a losing streak. Aaron Hernandez is out and with all the talk about how Wes Welker has been neglected, maybe this is the game that he goes on fire. As for the Ravens, Ray Rice is getting half the carries he should be.

- Falcons vs. Chargers: Battle of two 2-0 teams so something has gotta give. Matty Ice has been the hottest quarterback the first 1/8 of the season and the defense frustrated Peyton Manning last week. This will be the first real challenge for the Chargers, who will be getting Antonio Gates and Ryan Mathews back from injuries.

- Texans vs. Broncos. Houston is 2-0 and get their first real test in Denver against a very good Broncos defense and Peyton Manning who is looking to avenge a terrible game last Monday Night. Arian Foster and Ben Tate have been the busiest back field. Texans have not turned the ball over on offense yet.

- Eagles vs. Cardinals: The other matchup of teams looking to reach 3-0. Kevin Kolb has looked good coming in for John Skelton but he’ll get his biggest test against his former team, the very aggressive Eagles. The Eagles have the top offense so far but also a a zillion turnovers, and the Cardinals just gave Tom Brady a terrible day.

- Giants vs. Panthers: No Nicks, Bradshaw, Diehl, or Hixon and the G-Men are underdogs on the road in Carolina. For a team that struggled as heavy favorites last year, maybe this is a good situation for Eli and Coughlin. Cam had a great game against a terrible Saints defense, and now he gets to face Jason Pierre-Paul and Justin Tuck.

Upset Alert
(2-0 last week, 3-1 overall)

Bengals over Redskins
Broncos over Texans

Miller’s Fearless Pic ks
(2-2 last week, 2-6 overall)

Giants over Panthers. Dealing with major injuries to key people, but the depth is there. Look for Martellus Bennett and Andre Brown to step up with big games, and the pass rush will give Cam Newton troubles. I don’t think the Panthers are very good and are in danger of letdown after a big win over the Saints . 34-20

Bears over Rams. Chicago is coming off an embarrassing loss last week and get a few extra days to prepare for this one. Meanwhile, the Rams are coming off a strange win after a dumb Redskins penalty screwed up a Washington comeback. The Bears are desperate and angry and will punish Sam Bradford and light up the defense. 34-14

Packers over the Seahawks. Green Bay is on the road in hostile Seattle, but like the Bears have a few extra days to make the trip. With all the controversy surrounding comments about Aaron Rodgers I expect him to go out and finally have a great game in Prime Time. 38-17

Cowboys over Buccaneers. Home opener in Dallas and the Cowboys are coming off the season’s worst loss so far so they will be hungry to make a statement. Eli Manning went hog-wild against the Bucs defense, and Tony Romo is 3-0 with 11 touchdowns and no interceptions in his career against Tampa Bay. 28-17

The Rest of the Games

Bills 30, Browns 27
Lions 31, Titans 26
Colts 20, Jaguars 14
Jets 17, Dolphins 16
49ers 20, Vikings 10
Saints 38, Chiefs 30
Bengals 26, Redskins 24
Eagles 30, Cardinals 13
Chargers 28, Atlanta 27
Broncos 23, Texans 20
Steelers 30, Raiders 19
Patriots 24, Ravens 23

(7-5 last week, 16-7 overall)

hey Bud, wake up!

Melky Cabrera was suspended for the last third of the year for cheating, testing positive for performance-enhancing drugs. The positive test came during the season, a season in which he exploded to lead the league in batting average and win the All Star MVP.

In his first six seasons in the majors Cabrera never hit higher than .280 and was really just a 4th outfielder for the Yankees and Braves. In his eighth season he jumped to .346! This also coincidentally coincided with his free agent year. PEDs clearly contributed to his success.

On Wednesday, commissioner Bud Selig says that it is unlikely that baseball will interfere with the baseball awards if Melky Cabrera ends the season as the leader in batting average. Cabrera began his suspension hitting .346, with Andrew McCutchen currently second at .339. Cabrera has 501 at bats, one fewer than the qualifying number. In the Official Baseball Rules, according to section 10.22(a), he would win the batting title if an extra hitless at-bat is added to his average and it remains higher than that of any other qualifying player.

Two and a half years ago, Bud Selig stated that “The so-called steroid era... is a thing of the past.” Today, the most recent NL MVP (Ryan Braun), All Star MVP and likely batting champion (Cabrera) flunked a test for PEDs during the season that they won it. This problem isn’t going away. And with an opportunity to punish a high-profiler offender, Bud just shrugs his shoulders and says “We’ll see how it all plays out. We generally don’t interfere in that process.”

So when my kids are old and looking through the baseball record books and see ‘Melky Cabrera: 2012 All Star MVP and NL Batting Champion,’ we will have this conversation:

“Melky’s a funny name. Dad, who was Melky?”
“He was a cheater. He broke the rules by using banned substances.”
“So how come they let him keep the awards?”
My only response will be, “Because the commissioner didn’t feel like interfering.”

As science is improving, player salaries are increasing, and substances are getting harder to catch, many low- and mid-level hitters are willing to take a chance on not being caught with the opportunity to crash the leaderboard and cash in on a big contract. Melky Cabrera took a chance on a $100 million contract and although he won’t get close to that next year, several teams will likely offer him over $10 million a year. That’s five times what he would have gotten pre-PEDs. And along the ride he picked up an All Star MVP and batting title.

Selig is a coward with his head in the sand. He waited until the last minute to do anything about steroids and performance enhancing drugs. As soon as he possibly could after that, he declared, “the steroid era is over.” And later on when players are still winning the hardware with the juice, he is content to just sit back and let it be, still whispering to himself that “things are changing, things are changing.”

the miracle O's do it again

People are probably tired of hearing me talk about the Orioles but what can I say? They are the biggest story in the American League this season.

On a night where a win would put them in a tie with the Yankees for first place, the Orioles hung on for close to 6 hours to beat the Mariners in 18 innings. Down 2-0 in the ninth, the Orioles rallied to tie the game. While the 4-5-6-7-8 batters for Baltimore went 1-35, the bullpen went 12 and 2/3 innings without allowing a run. The win gives them an amazing 14 consecutive extra-inning wins, the longest such streak in over 60 years. Add in a 27-8 record in one-run games, and 32-15 record since July 29 (Yankees are 23-23 during the same stretch), and this team has clutch written all over it. And coming from a huge Bombers fan, that is what has been missing in New York.

The O’s hung around for the first half of the year have really caught fire since the end of July. On a team with Adam Jones, Matt Weiters, and former All Stars Nate McLouth and Nick Markakis, the two players I really want to comment on are Taylor Teagarden and Manna Machado.
Backup catcher Taylor Teagarden, batting .152, only has 7 hits this year. But look at when these hits come:

Teagarden had a pinch-hit game-winning double in 18th inning Tuesday night, had 2 RBI go-ahead hit in 7th inning in last week’s 14 inning win over the Rays, homered and doubled in a tight win over the White Sox August 30, had a game winning hit in 10th inning August 5 against Tampa Bay, and in his first game of the season on July 14, he hit a walk-off home run in the 13th to beat the Detroit Tigers. Coach Buck Showalter definitely seems to know the right moment to ride the clutch TT.

We’ve all seen and heard what Mike Trout has done, but 20 year-old Manny Machado has had a similar affect on his team, the Baltimore Orioles, since he was called up in early August. Along with strong offense, he also plays outstanding defense, including this game-saving play. When Machado came up the Orioles were the worst defensive team in the American League. But despite switching from shortstop to third base, he has played stellar defense (only 2 errors) and moving Mark Reynolds to first full time has practically turned that error machine into a gold glover. Along with Teagarden, Machado’s call-up coincides pretty significantly with the Orioles late-season surge.

And speaking of Reynolds’ defense, his season offensively has really turned around since Machado arrived. 13 of his 21 home runs have come since Aug 8 and his batting average, a measly .208 at the end of July, has been .263 since.

Everybody has been writing the O’s off as a contender all year, as late as a week ago putting them behind the Tampa Rays. But with the season on the line Buck Showalter's team has risen above while the Rays stumble along. Whether the Orioles win the East or settle for a Wild Card spot, this is the best story of the baseball season and Showalter is a lock to win his third Manager of the Year award.

a Giant controversy?

The Giants offense exploded, Eli threw for over 500 yards, and the G-Men came back from a 14-point second half deficit this week to avoid an 0-2 start. But all the buzz has been about the last 30 seconds of the game.

What happened: In a tie game, with 1:20 left, backup running back Andre Brown found a big hole and ran 9 yards to the goal line. He stopped and slid before the goal line to keep the clock moving. On the next play, with 31 seconds, Andre Brown again found no resistance and this time ran all the way into the endzone for the touchdown. After the kickoff Josh Freeman made a couple big plays that got the Bucs within striking distance, although one was overruled as incomplete, and the Giants picked off Freeman with 5 seconds to seal it. On the quarterback kneeldown, the Bucs defense pushed through and Eli fell down. Coach Coughlin ripped Tampa Bay coach Greg Schiano as unprofessional and called it a cheap shot.

The touchdown: There was a lot of criticism about this. People say Brown gave Tampa Bay another chance. There was too much time left. I disagree. I never like a guy taking a knee outside of the endzone anyway, especially in a game you aren't winning yet. After the first down, letting the clock run, with 30 seconds left it is time to make sure your team takes the lead. Do you really want to put the outcome of the game in the hands of a kicker?

Take the points. Make sure your team takes the lead. It is always better to have the lead near the end of the game than not. And taking a 7-point lead gives you enough that worst-case-scenerio, a miracle still won't beat you in regulation.

Tampa Bay made it interesting after a big return, a good pass, and another catch that was cancelled. But if you are so worried that your team's defense can't keep the Buccaneers out of the endzone within 25 seconds then you have bigger issues.

The kneel: Since Pop Warner league (and in every other sport for that matter), coaches always say play until the final whistle. This is pro football; not golf or baseball. Football is a violent game. It was a one-score difference. Catch them off guard, a returned fumbled snap would tie the game. The lineman got down in the three-point-stance; what did you expect they were going to?

The Bucs lost their final 10 games last year. Coach Schiano is trying to change the culture. I love the Giants and approve of Tom Coughlin, but he has to quit crying and move on. These are professional football players; I would hope that they can handle a shove.

Week 2 Preview

Five Big Games

- Bears vs. Packers: Green Bay is featured in the biggest matchup for the second week in a row. Aaron Rodgers is still Aaron Rodgers, but the 49ers really exposed some weaknesses in the Packers: no rushing game, can't stop the pass, can't stop the run. And guess what, the Bears have a better quarterback, better receivers, and better running backs than the 49ers, and a defense that is at least comparable. No one thinks the Super Bowl favorite Packers can start 0-2, but the Bears are looking to make a statement.

- Lions vs. 49ers: Two playoff teams meet in the anticipated rematch of "The Handshake Heard 'Round the World" on Sunday Night Football. San Francisco looks like the best team in the NFC and the high-powered Lions struggled against the Rams. But they still have a very powerful offense and several playmakers on defense.

Broncos vs. Falcons: Falcons are 26-6 at home since Matt Ryan came to town and coming off an incredible offensive display in Kansas City a week ago. The Denver Mannings Broncos are also coming off an impressive win and give the Falcons offense a much more challenging defense. Peyton Manning is on the road but back in a dome.

- Ravens vs. Eagles: Two teams that were picked to win their divisions face off in a big inter-conference battle. The teams are coming off very different wins: Joe Flacco was brilliant and the Ravens destroyed the Bengals; Michael Vick was terrible and the Eagles barely squeaked by the bad Browns. As crazy as it seems, I think a Ravens letdown is possible, especially with a shorter week and going on the road, and the Eagles couldn't play as sloppy as Week 1 (could they?).

- Jets vs. Steelers: Steelers are coming off a tough loss in Denver and the Jets are coming off an improbable beat-down of the Bills. Pittsburgh should be getting Ryan Clark and Rashard Mendenhall back, while the Jets may be without all pro cornerback Derelle Revis. Steelers are looking to avoid starting 0-2 and the Jets are trying to prove they are legit. Remember the last time Steeles faced Tim Tebow?

Upset Alert

Seahawks over Cowboys
Eagles over Ravens
(1-1 last week)

Miller's Fearless Picks

(0-4 last week; Ouch! got some ground to make up)

- Giants over Bucs. G-Men viewing this as a must-win game after an embarrassing home loss to Cowboys. Bucs already got their first win. 34-20

- Steelers over Jets. Another case of a desperate team against a 1-0 team not expected to win. Steelers will put up a lot more defensive pressure than Buffalo. 35-15

- Bears over Packers. Face it, Bears are the better team and are ready to make a statement. Packers won't be able to stop Marshall or Forte/Bush. 28-24

- Chiefs over Bills. Both teams looking for their first win. Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis will top 200 rushing yards. Some players coming back for the Chiefs on defense and will give Ryan Fitzpatrick headache. 24-19

The Rest of the Games

Bengals 30, Browns 13
Vikings 20, Colts 17
Raiders 31, Dolphins 20
Patriots 40, Cardinals 17
Eagles 24, Ravens 23
Saints 38, Panthers 31
Texans 35, Jaguars 28
Redskins 25, Rams 22
Seahawks 24, Cowboys 20
Chargers 21, Titans 20
49ers 30, Lions 24
Falcons 28, Broncos 21
(9-3 last week)

Week 1 Power Report

Easy to overreact after one game but remember, it's just one game. Last year the Giants, Saints, Falcons, and Steelers all made the playoffs despite losing their first game. I'm not burying the Saints, not buying the Jets, and not worried about the Eagles. Here's my ranking of each team.

1. Patriots. Took care of business against the Titans. Stevan Ridley ran wild, Tom Brady did his thing, both tight ends found the endzone, and the defense looked very strong. Next week against the Arizona Cardinals.
2. 49ers. Defense looks as good as last year and the offense controlled the game. If Alex Smith continues to play like that, 49ers will be the team to beat in the NFC.
3. Texans. Only critical point was a missed field goal and a failure to score in the first quarter. They corrected that with four turnovers and 24 points in the second quarter.
4. Ravens. All we’ve heard lately is how old the defense is. Well, Ray Lewis had 10 tackles and a sack Monday night and Ed Reed had a pick-six as the defense harassed Andy Dalton all night long. As for the offense, it was full speed ahead. Joe Flacco had an amazing game, hitting Boldin, Pitta, and Torrey Smith for big plays.
5. Packers. Aaron Rodgers played pretty well but it was just a bad matchup for the Packers. They showed no ground game, as there were only 9 non-Rodgers carries for 18 yards. Another tough matchup against the Bears on Thursday.
6. Bears. Offense and defense are in midseason form already after a nice tune-up over the Colts.
7. Falcons. Matt Ryan and Falcons looked unstoppable on Sunday. In fact, they were unstoppable, scoring on their first 8 drives. Ryan was practically perfect, and the while the defense did nothing in the first half they did force 3 second half turnovers.
8. Broncos. Manning looked like Peyton of old (only in different colors). I really like the Broncos defense.
9. Saints. Lose their first game at home to a rookie after going 8-0 in New Orleans a year ago. But it wasn’t just the defense that struggled; Drew Brees completed less than half his passes for the first time since 2006. The Saints benefit from the “Bountygate” appeal ruling, but it already looks like losing Coach Payton is bigger than we thought.
10. Eagles. It’s not often a team turns the ball over 5 times and still wins. Eagles had 16 possessions in the game and only scored 3 times. Still, it’s nice to come away with a win after a poor game like that. They won’t get as many extra chances next week against Baltimore.
11. Cowboys. One of the surprises of Week 1, the Cowboys did whatever they wanted against the Giants, dominating on offense and defense. With Bryant, Austin, Murray, Witten, and breakout Ogletree, Tony Romo may have the best weapons in the NFC.
12. Giants. Secondary was Swiss cheese against the Cowboys. Rookie David Wilson has been in the doghouse already after an early fumble.
13. Lions. After a sloppy first half including two red zone interceptions, the Lions managed to squeak away with the win when Stafford found Kevin Smith in the endzone with 10 seconds left.
14. Steelers. We saw a lot of vintage Ben Roethlisberger on Sunday night, running around, avoiding tackles, and making something out of nothing. But the defense could not stop Peyton Manning the last three quarters.
15. Redskins. How about that for a debut? Robert Griffin III comes into the boisterous Superdome and not only throws for 320 yards (12.3 yards per attempt), two touchdowns and a 139.9 QB rating, but the Redskins win the game. Wow, does the future look bright in the nation’s capital.
16. Bengals. Nothing went right for the Bengals in Baltimore.
17. Chiefs. A shorthanded defense got picked apart by the Falcons and the offense made too many mistakes in the second half. Jamaal Charles looks good as ever, which provides some optimism going forward.
18. Jets. There’s nothing to be critical about here after a 48-28 smack down to the Bills. Mark Sanchez silenced the Tebow birds with a great game.
19. Buccaneers. A real boring game but still, a good way to start the season as the Bucs won more on Sunday than they did the last ten weeks of 2011. The defense controlled Cam Newton and the conservative offense avoided mistakes.
20. Chargers. No rushing game at all while Ryan Matthews was out. Chargers didn’t make any mistakes and came away with a win.
21. Raiders. McFadden had 13 catches on Monday night. Good for your fantasy team, but not a good sign for the Raiders. The defense did a good job keeping the Chargers out of the endzone, but couldn’t get a turnover and San Diego kicked 5 field goals.
22. Titans. Titans got some good news as it looks like Jake Locker and Nate Washington, who were injured on the same play, will be back on the field against the Chargers in Week 2. Chris Johnson better find a way to be productive after only gaining 4 yards on 11 carries the first week.
23. Vikings. A lot of relief as Adrian Peterson not only plays but plays well and scores two touchdowns. Good chance to go 2-0 against the Colts coming up.
24. Cardinals. Lost their starting quarterback but no problem as Kevin Kolb saved the day in the 4th quarter, earning the division win at home.
25. Bills. Ryan Fitzpatrick looks well on his way to defend his league-high interception total from 2011. Losing Fred Jackson for three weeks and #2 receiver David Nelson for the year spells further trouble for the Bills. They better find a defense, or get their defensive players to step up or it could be a worse season than last year.
26. Seahawks. Unable to take advantage of an extra timeout as Braylon Edwards couldn’t hold onto a touchdown pass at the end.
27. Rams. Rams played well in their first game under Jeff Fisher but it wasn’t enough as Detroit was simply the better team. Still, a clock-operating error may have ultimately cost them the game as it rewarded the Lions a 4th timeout.
28. Panthers. Same ol’ same ol’ for Cam Newton who put up lots of sexy numbers but made too many mistakes that cost the game.
29. Colts. Indy better hope that Andrew Luck doesn’t have to throw the ball 45 times every game. Colts were simply way overmatched by a great team in Chicago.
30. Jaguars. Crushing loss as the Jags couldn’t hold on after taking a lead with only 20 seconds left.
31. Dolphins. Ryan Tannehill simply didn’t stand a chance.
32. Browns. Brandon Weedon had an even worse day, compiling a quarterback rating of 5. Still, the Browns had a chance to win with a lead under 2 minutes. Trouble is ahead as the Browns will be missing Joe Haden, their best defensive player for the next four weeks because of a suspension.

the wild September race in the American League

There’s about three weeks left in the baseball season and a lot to be excited about. There’s also a lot to be nervous about, as even the big bad Texas Rangers are only 3 games ahead in their division. The standings could be very crowded when October comes.

Yankees. They just finished a tough ten game stretch against the Orioles and Rays and survived with a 1 game lead in the division. They just can’t seem to get everybody healthy as now that Alex Rodriguez is back, Mark Teixeira may be done for the rest of the way. The one constant all year has been the captain, Derek Jeter who at the ripe age of 38 is closing in on 200 hits to go with his 15 home runs. Everybody else is in a prolonged slump: Swisher (0 for last 28), Ibanez (3 for last 46), Granderson (.125 with 18 strikeouts over last 15 games before Sunday), Andruw Jones (.143 since the All Star break) and Chavez (3 for last 21). I’m seeing way too much Steve Pearce, Chris Dickerson, Casey McGehee, and Jayson Nix to be comfortable. Hiroki Kuroda is a sure thing but after that… C.C. Sabathia simply has not been good and the rest of the rotation is junk. And outside one sparkling stretch in June, they’ve been junk all year. The bullpen was so strong for so long, but it’s hard to trust anyone in that group now. They are still in first and 13 of their last 19 games are against the Red Sox, Blue Jays and Twins so they are still in control but as a Yankees fan, I don’t have much confidence. It will be very nice if Andy Pettitte is able to take the mound next week and be ready when the postseason comes because they sure need him.
Schedule: @Red Sox, Rays, Blue Jays, Athletics, @Twins, @Blue Jays 4, Red Sox
My projected finish: 90-72

Orioles. Defying the odds, that’s what the Orioles have been doing all year. They really control their destiny, with 9 games against the Athletics and Rays, who they are battling with for a playoff spot. Markakis was outstanding in the leadoff spot, and losing him is a big loss. But they still have enough hitting to stay in it (Adam Jones, Mark Reynolds, Matt Weiters, J.J. Hardy, Manny Machado, and Nate McLouth are all hitting well). They just got their ace Jason Hammel back off the DL. 25-7 in one run games is the stat that is making ALL the difference. Since Shields just pitched and Price is nursing a sore shoulder, the Orioles have the advantage in this week’s matchup with the Rays, and they should miss Anderson and Griffin in the A’s series, too.
Schedule: Rays, @Athletics, @Mariners, @Red Sox, Blue Jays, Red Sox, @Rays
My projected finish: 91-71

Rays. With the Rays, it’s all about the pitching. David Price has been the ace he is supposed to be all year and is on course to win his first Cy Young award. He missed a start over the weekend with a sore shoulder, but still has a good shot at 20 wins. James Shields has been very consistent, and young Matt Moore has turned his season around. Fernando Rodney has defied logic by being the best reliever in the American League. Since Evan Longoria returned the bats have heated up, especially B.J. Upton, who hit 3 home runs out of the leadoff spot on Sunday. They have their work cut out for them, with 3 games in New York, 4 in Chicago, and 6 games left with the Orioles.
Schedule: @Orioles, @Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, @Red Sox, @White Sox 4, Orioles
My projected finish: 89-73

Athletics. Despite not having anybody you’ve ever heard about in their starting rotation and not having a very good lineup, they’ve managed to go 43-18 since the beginning of July including four series sweeps in the last month. Brett Anderson’s return has been amazing in the four games he has pitched since being activated (4-0, 0.69 ERA) and is a sure ace, and rookie A.J. Griffin hasn’t lost a game in his young career (5-0, 2.21 ERA). A’s have a real tough stretch the rest of the way, playing the Angels, Orioles, Tigers, Yankees, and two series against the Rangers, with only 3 other games against the Mariners. That is 19 of 22 games against contenders with 13 on the road.
Schedule: @Angels, Orioles, @Tigers, @Yankees, @Rangers 4, Mariners, Rangers
My projected finish: 88-74

Angels. Things are finally heating up for the Halos winning 15-4 in their last 19 games. Greinke has won 5 of his last 6 starts, C.J. Wilson has won his last 3 starts, and Ervin Santana has won 4 of his last 5 decisions. Mike Trout continues to lead the league in hitting and is a human highlight reel in center field. Mark Trumbo has really been slumping since midseason but Torii Hunter is making up for it with a hot second half. All that might be too late after falling to 62-60 last month, but I think they will squeak it out. Both the A’s and Angels have two series left against the Rangers.
Schedule: Athletics, @Royals, Rangers, White Sox, Mariners, @Rangers, @Mariners
My projected finish: 89-73

White Sox. Jose Quintana put the White Sox in a really good position by shutting down the Tigers on Monday night and giving the Sox a three game cushion in the Central. Chris Sale and Jake Peavy haven’t been as dominant as they were the first half of the season, but they are still a scary 1-2 punch. Gavin Floyd is set to come off the DL on Wednesday. One of the craziest stats of the year is, of course, Adam Dunn: he has either homered, struck out or walked in 58% of his plate appearances this year. He missed his 6th game this month on Monday and the White Sox need his presence in the lineup the rest of the way.
Schedule: Tigers, @Twins, @Royals, @Angels, Indians, Rays 4, @Indians
My projected finish: 88-74

Tigers. Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder continue to carry the Tigers, just as they have done all year. Max Scherzer and Doug Fister have really come on in the second half, going 13-3 combined with a 2.60 ERA, really relieving the pressure off Justin Verlander. The schedule definitely falls in the Tigers favor. The 3 games against the A’s are in Detroit, and the last 13 games of the season are against the terrible Twins and Royals, so if they can win some of these games this week in Chicago they will be in good shape.
Schedule: @White Sox, @Indians, Athletics, Twins, Royals, @Twins, @Royals
My projected finish: 87-75

East
Orioles 91-71
Yankees 90-72
Rays 89-73

Central
White Sox 88-74
Tigers 87-75

West
Rangers 93-69
Angels 89-73
Athletics 88-74

To be clear, I am a Yankees fan and hope they win out. But that’s right, the Orioles will come out on top in the East.
The Rays and Angels will have a play-in game, and the winner plays the Yankees in another play-in game in the Wild Card round.

Alex Smith outplays Rodgers in 49ers win

In the marquee matchup of the day, the San Francisco 49ers came into Lambeau Field and left with a 30-22 win over the Green Bay Packers. The 49ers defense harassed MVP Aaron Rodgers all day long, sacking him three times (a fourth came passed the line of scrimmage), and picked him off once (a second one dropped). The Packers had no ground game at all, and after a season where they only trailed for a combined 3 minutes, they were behind in the score the entire game.

But it was the 49ers defense that really shined, holding the NFL’s best offense to only 7 points after three quarters. The Packers offense only came away with two plays over 20 yards. And with the game on the line the Niners D came up big, sacking Rodgers and knocking away two passes to seal the win.

Alex Smith and the 49ers offense played mistake-free and really controlled the game. Smith hit Randy Moss in the endzone for Moss’ 14th career touchdown against the Packers to make it 10-0 San Fran early in the second quarter. And then right before halftime, David Akers kicked a record-tying 63 yard field goal, his 3rd of the day, to make it a 16-7 game at the break. The ball actually hit the crossbar and bounced over and Akers couldn’t believe it went through.

It looked like Randall Cobb shifted the momentum in the 4th quarter with a big 75 yard punt return for a touchdown. It was the second year in a row that Cobb returned a kick back in the first week. Cobb also had 9 catches in this game. The two-point conversion made it an 8 point difference, but the 49ers responded with a strong drive, capped off by a 23 yard touchdown run for Frank Gore.

The Packers were last in passing defense last year. Today, not only did Alex Smith pick part the defense (77% completion rate), but they Packers couldn’t slow down the run either, giving up 186 yards rushing. Frank Gore led the way with 112 yards on 16 carries for an average of 7 yards.

Watching the game was very frustrating; there were lots of penalties and other bad calls by the officials. The most frustrating thing was the lateness of the flags. Nearly all of the 18 penalty flags that were thrown came out well after the incident. And there was at least one more that should have been called on the Cobb punt return. The flag was picked up and the play resulted in a Packers touchdown.

The win was the 49ers first in Green Bay since 1990. Both teams play in prime time next: the Packers host the Bears on Thursday and the 49ers host the Lions on Sunday Night Football.

Jets embarrass the Bills in Week 1

Naturally, the worst scoring team in the preseason explodes for 48 points in the season opener.

It was a dreadful day for the Bills who got destroyed in all three areas of the game in the 48-28 win for the the New York J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets. By early in the second half the Jets had scored on a punt return, picked off Ryan Fitzpatrick three times, and made a big return on a CJ Spiller fumble. The Jets capitalized on those turnovers with 24 points, plus that 7 from the kick return. To add insult to injury, or rather injury to insult, the Bills top playmaker on offense Fred Jackson was hurt in the second quarter and did not return.

And not only did the Jets offense take advantage of those blunders, they moved the ball with ease. Jets converted their first six 3rd down tries and didn’t punt until the end of the 3rd quarter.

Tim Tebow had no real affect on the game, but Mark Sanchez was terrific. Sanchez completed 70% of his passes and threw for 3 touchdowns. Jeremy Kerley, who didn’t play at all in the preseason, was also a star of the game, returning the punt 68 yards to the bank and also caught a touchdown pass. Rookie Stephen Hill caught the other two. Shonn Greene did the ground and pounding, carrying the ball a career high 27 times for 94 yards and scored the game’s final touchdown.

The lone Bills’ highlight of the first half was a 56 yard scamper by CJ Spiller, and that certainly was all. Spiller finished the game with 168 yards rushing but also had that turnover in the final two minutes of the first half. You have to credit Chan Gailey, who took a nightmare and at least brought something positive. Ryan Fitzpatrick played about as badly as a quarterback can play. The Jets went up 41-7 but Gailey left his starter out there, and he bounced back with three touchdown drives to close out the game and at least make it respectable. But at that point, the only people still watching were Jets fans.

The 1-0 Jets have a much tougher matchup in Pittsburgh next week while the Bills play their home-opener against the Chiefs.

Giants can't stop Cowboys in season opener

It was a disappointing start to the season in New York last night as Jerry Jones' team whupped the Giants.

After the big ceremony before the game, both teams had the Opening Kickoff jitters as neither team could get any offense going in the first half. Early in the second quarter, Michael Boley picked off Tony Romo and ran it back all the way to the Cowboys’ goal line but the Giants offense couldn’t stick it in, as Ahmad Bradshaw was stuffed twice and Eli threw an incomplete pass on 3rd down. Victor Cruz had a frustrating game, dropping three catches and committing two costly penalties.

But it was the Giants defense in the second half that really cost the game. Starting with the final drive of the first half, Tony Romo led four impressive scoring drives for all 24 Cowboy points. The secondary got eaten alive. Corey Webster got beat routinely, and after an impressive Michael Coe left with a hamstring injury, his replacement Justin Tryon was targeted nearly every time. The real killer came when the Cowboys were facing 1st and 30 and Romo found Miles Austin for a 34 yard touchdown that put the Giants down by two touchdowns in the fourth quarter. And then late as the Giants were hoping to give Eli Manning one last opportunity, Romo completed a pass to Kevin Ogletree for 13 yards on 3rd and 10 to seal the deal.

DeMarco Murray showed why he could be one of the league’s best running backs, gaining 131 yards on 20 attempts. He displayed good speed, toughness, and a knack for hitting the hole for a big play. In the third quarter he broke free from would-be-tackler Justin Tuck to turn a big loss into a 48 yard gain that set up Dan Bailey’s field goal. Kevin Ogletree was the surprise star for the Cowboys, hauling in 8 catches for a game-high 114 yards and the first two touchdowns of his career. But the real hero was Tony Romo, who made all the big plays. I kept waiting for him to goof up but he didn’t. He completed 22 of 29 passes (76%) for 307 yards, 3 touchdowns, and an impressive 129.5 quarterback rating and did everything right in the second half. He even scrambled for a first down.

The biggest relief in the game was the officiating, which was surprisingly reasonable. There were no major gaffes, no significant delays, and the replacement refs did a good job calling the game.

Both teams have some extra rest before their next game September 16. The GMen host the Buccaneers and the Cowboys fly cross-country to play the Seahawks in Seattle.

You hope they get the win, but there is no need for Giants fans to overreact to the 0-1 start. New York began 2011 with a loss. How did that affect their season?

Week 1 Preview

Five Big Games

- 49ers vs. Packers: Opening Week features two of the best NFC teams matched up. Alex Smith was one of the biggest breakout players last year and the 49ers made some improvements on offense around him. The Green Bay receiving corps suffered some injuries this preseason, namely concussions sustained by Greg Jennings and Jermichael Finley. It won’t get better against one of the league’s strongest defenses. I believe Rodgers will pull this one off, but if not, the 49ers can stake their claim as the team to beat in the NFC.

- Steelers vs. Broncos: Peyton Manning gets his first test with his new team after missing a year against the Pittsburgh Steelers and their stout defense. Dick Lebeau placed a renewed emphasis on creating turnovers, and the Steelers defense really responded this preseason after a mediocre 2011. The Broncos defense was probably the most underrated last year, taking a back seat to all the Tim Tebow hype but doing all the dirty work. Can Wallace shake off the holdout rust to make a big show?

- Bills vs. Jets: It’s only Week 1 but this game is a biggie: both teams have playoff aspirations but it will be very hard for the losing team to win the Wild Card. The Jets kept their secret offensive packages well hidden this preseason, which means the cat comes out of the bag on Sunday. The Bills were able to come out of the gate running last year, averaging about 38 points the first three weeks. Mario Williams is salivating with the thought of taking on the Jets o-line. It will take some mistakes by Buffalo for the Jets to pull this one out. I’m bullish on the Bills this year.

- Cowboys vs. Giants: Defending Super Bowl Champs have won their last 8 openers. The GMen swept Dallas right out of the playoffs last year with two late season wins, including the last game when Romo got sacked six times. The Cowboys have had this game circled for months, looking for revenge. Jerry Jones talked trash this summer while Tom Coughlin calmly spoke on building the bridge.

- Bengals vs. Ravens: Divisional rivals that both made the playoffs last year and each looking to get a leg up in the race now. Ravens swept the division in 2011. Andy Dalton gets his gumption tested right away as he hopes to avoid the sophomore slump. Ravens are the better team, especially as Joe Flacco has a full complement of receivers now to lighten the dependence on Ray Rice.

Upset Alert

Chiefs over Falcons
Bucs over Panthers

Miller’s Fearless Picks

- Giants over Cowboys. Champs always open with a win. JPP has another Romo feast. 35-24

- Bills over Jets. The Wildcat gets out of the bag, but the Bills start the Jets tailspin anyway. 20-16

- Chiefs over Falcons. Matt Ryan struggles on the road, and Kansas City is a rough place to start. Charles and Hillis run wild. 20-17

- Saints over Redskins. Drew Brees is still here and the Superdome is a bad place for RG3 to start his career. 38-24

The Rest of the Games

Bears 35, Colts 17
Eagles 28, Browns 10
Patriots 31, Titans 28
Vikings 24, Jaguars 16
Lions 37, Rams 20
Texans 38, Dolphins 13
Packers 31, 49ers 27
Seahawks 20, Cardinals 14
Buccaneers 26, Panthers 23
Broncos 21, Steelers 20
Ravens 28, Bengals 14
Raiders 24, Chargers 21

NFL Season Preview #2: NFC East

The Eagles will soar or crash according to Michael Vick’s health. As long as he is on the field the Eagles are one of the best teams in the NFL with stars on both side of the ball. Unfortunately, Vick was on the field for like 10 seconds in the preseason and got hurt twice. LeSean McCoy established himself as one of the premier running backs in the NFC with his 1300 yard, 17 touchdown effort a season ago. The defense struggled for much of the year, blowing five 4th quarter leads, but figured it out towards the end to help them win their last four games. Year Two of the Juan Castillo should be better. Eagles need better years from DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and Brent Celek, but that is also contingent on Michael Vick. If all goes right they could be in the Super Bowl.

Elite quarterback and elite pass rush, that’s what the Giants bring to the table every week and gives them a shot in every game. Eli Manning raised his game to a new level last year. His record-setting 15 fourth quarter touchdown passes and second Super Bowl MVP set him alongside the most clutch quarterbacks in NFL history. Victor Cruz busted out in a big way in 2011 as a Pro Bowl complement to Hakeem Nicks. Big Blue has an amazing pass rush with Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora, and Mathias Kiwanuka, perhaps the best the NFL has ever seen. The secondary was spotty last year and the ground game was dead last in the NFL. The Giants can beat anybody but they can also get beat by anybody; they tend to play up or down to their opponent. Last year featured losses to the Seahawks (at home), twice to the Redskins, and a game they ultimately should have lost to the Cardinals.

I don’t know what to think about the Cowboys. Tony Romo can do some amazing things and put up amazing numbers but he also makes gigantic mistakes late that cost games. Witten has an injured spleen, Miles Austin has a bad hammy, and Dez Bryant has issues with his knee. That’s a bad start. Rob Ryan tended to make things too complicated last year and the defense was regularly confused, but like the Eagles, the second year should be improved. The Cowboys wouldn’t surprise me if they win 10 games but I’m going to aim low, especially with a rather challenging schedule.

Unlike most rookie starting QBs, the Redskins actually have some nice pieces around RG3, including Fred Davis, Pierre Garcon, Josh Morgan, and Santana Moss. Not household names, but we’ve seen worse. Mike Shanahan has his traditional crowded backfield with Royster, Morris, and Helu and who knows where that will go. The defense has a lot of big names on it and they will need to play big in the NFC East and with other games against the Saints and Falcons.

Miller’s Fearless Forecast

Eagles 9-7
Giants 9-7
Cowboys 7-9
Redskins 7-9

NFL Season Preview #1: AFC East

The Patriots have an old offensive line and no proven running back. On defense they have a suspect secondary and a limited pass rush. But this is still the toast of the division. They have one game against a top 13 quarterback (10/7 vs. Denver and Peyton Manning) and that’s it. Brady will have an MVP season as he has no one to hand off to and tons of top-level receiving talent. I don’t know how things will work out once playoff time comes, but the Patriots will be on their way to home field advantage.

The Bills have made some big improvements on defense solidifying their pass rush (Mario Williams and Mark Anderson to go with 2011 #3 pick Marcell Dareus) and are returning practically the entire offense from last year, a group that busted out of the gate in 2011 and scored at least 30 points five times. Ryan Fitzpatrick struggled after picking up some cracked ribs and an injured sternum midway through the year but I like the Bills quarterback. Their biggest problem is receivers; Stevie Johnson tends to have butter fingers, and no one has even heard of any of the others (except Donald Jones’ mom). Fred Jackson was a beast for most of the year and CJ Spiller is a nice weapon. Bills ought to contend for a Wild Card spot.

What hasn’t been said about the Jets? They showed us nothing in the preseason; nothing. (To be fair, the Bills looked awful, too.) Mark Sanchez may be a quality quarterback in this league but he has the deck stacked against him, with a terrible offensive line, bad receivers, marginal rushing game, and the most charismatic backup quarterback the league has ever seen. There is a chance that Tim Tebow will be implemented in such a way that the league has never seen and the Jets score some points. But after Week 1 who will be taken off guard by that? The defense is improved from twelve months ago, but they may be on the field an awful lot. For the Jets to make the playoffs the defense will have to be something special and create their own points.

The rebuilding Dolphins are going with a rookie quarterback who has not impressed in the preseason and has only #3 receivers to throw to. They traded cornerback Vontae Davis to the Colts for future draft picks. Rookie head coach Joe Philbin has his work cut out for him.

Miller’s Fearless Forecast:
Patriots 13-3
Bills 10-6
Jets 7-9
Dolphins 4-12

Buck Ball

Here we sit on September 4. The baseball season is in its 6th and final month. And look who's hanging around.

This is one of the most (fill in superlative) years in baseball we've ever seen. Unusual is probably the word to use, or unexpected. Phillies are buried, Red Sox are a dumpster fire, Angels can't get off the ground, Tigers are looking up in the standings, the new-look Marlins looked old in a hurry, and free-spending Dodgers are getting further behind. Those teams are all among the highest payrolls in baseball. Meanwhile, look out for the Orioles, Athletics, Rays, Reds, Nationals, and Pirates!

The most amazing story is the Orioles. And also the weirdest. This entire season has been filled with "O's are off to a hot start but they won't maintain it." "Buck has done a good job but they will fall back to earth." "Orioles are in second place but they'll fade to the bottom soon enough." "Baltimore is a pleasant surprise but they can't keep up with the big dogs." Guess what: they are! Not only that, but they are in position to win the AL BEast! How are they doing it?

They certainly aren't doing it the conventional way. Here are some strange but true facts about the Baltimore Orioles this season (and actually, a lot of these numbers have improved lately!):

- 13th (out of 14 AL teams) in on-base-percentage
- most errors and worst fielding percentage
- last in stolen bases and worst stolen base percentage
- 3rd-most strikeouts
- 3rd-most grounded into double plays
- Fewest occasions with runners in scoring position
- Tied for worst with only 1 complete game pitched
- Only one starter remaining from Opening Day pitching rotation (a rookie, the #5 starter)
- Only team with a winning record that has a negative run differential

Buck Showalter's team is certainly doing it against the customary way to win: great starting pitching, small ball to score runs, play good defense. But you know what, they keep winning, and this morning they are 1 little game behind the first place Yankees.

Here is their current starting rotation: Chris Tillman, Wei-Yin Chen, Miguel Gonzalez, Joe Saunders, and Zach Britton. Who?

The most amazing stat, and the one that is doing it for them, is this: 24-7 in one-run games, and a miraculous 12-2 in extra innings.

"It will catch up to them." Oh really? They just beat the Bronx Bombers 2 out of 3 in New York, and that was right after winning 3 of 4 from the first place White Sox.

I'm a huge Yankees fan but I can't deny it: I am rooting for the Baltimore Orioles in the AL East.

me vs. Vegas: NFL style

I am not a betting man, but the Wise Guys in Vegas have made it known how they think the NFL season will go. The Team Season Win totals odds interest me a lot. Here are a few projections that catch my eye.

Bills: +/- 8 wins
I’m taking the OVER. They do have some tough games on the schedule (two versus the Patriots, on road in San Francisco and one in Houston), but the back half of their schedule is a piece of cake. This is a 10-win team.

Panthers: +/- 7.5 wins
I’m taking the UNDER. Cam Newton busted onto the scene and had one heluva season. He looks like one special player. But sophomore slumps seem to happen more often than not as defensive coordinators figure out the scouting report, and I don’t trust the pieces around Cam to break out again. They won 6 games last year, and with one of the toughest schedules ahead this year they will not increase that total.

Bears: +/- 9.5 wins
I’m taking the OVER. Injuries sunk them last year, but here’s hoping that Jay Cutler and Matt Forte can stay on the field. I love the addition of Brandon Marshall, and Lovie Smith’s defense with Urlacher, Briggs, and Julius Peppers should stay near the top. They probably won’t have any long winning streaks with trips to Green Bay, San Francisco, and Detroit planned but I like them to win 11 games.

Browns: +/- 5.5 wins
I’m taking the UNDER. The Bengals fooled me last year, but it’s hard for me to trust a team who’s top two playmakers have yet to play an NFL game. Especially as Trent Richardson is already coming in with injuries. Throw in 6 games against the Ravens, Steelers, and Bengals, and matchups with everybody in the NFC East and AFC West; well for that matter, I don’t think they will be favored in any game this season. It will be good experience-building for Brandon Weedon but I think the Browns will be one of the two worst teams in the NFL.

Patriots: +/- 12 wins
I’m taking the OVER. It’s not easy to win 13 games three straight seasons but this Patriots team is loaded. Tom Brady has everything he needs: a deep threat (Brandon Lloyd), the best slot receiver (Wes Welker), and two monster tight ends (Gronk and Hernandez). They don’t have a proven running back, which means Brady should easily break 5,000 yards again. The defense is improved (it can’t get much worse), and the only elite quarterback they face all year is Peyton Manning once. Other than a game in Baltimore, the two other marquee matchups are both in Foxboro (Texans and 49ers in December). Take 13 wins to the bank.

Cardinals: +/- 7 wins
I’m taking the UNDER. I just don’t think the Cards are that good. And they got no favors from the scheduling people, traveling to New England, Green Bay, and Atlanta. And I don’t think they are necessarily good enough to beat the Eagles, Bills, Lions or Bears at home. This looks like a 5 win team to me.

NFL musical chairs

I love this time of year. Baseball is down to the last 25 or so games and the NFL is ready for Opening Kickoff. It's good times even for Red Sox fans because Tom Brady is still in a Patriots' jersey.

One of life's most amazing “facts” is that every year there are five new playoff teams in the NFL. Despite only six spots in each conference, there has been a turnover of five teams every year for the last fifteen years. You can put it in the bank. And it offers great hope to fans of every team.

Last year there were six: the Giants, 49ers, Lions, Broncos, Bengals, and Texans. Who will it be this year?

Of course, injuries are the obvious primary factor that creates the turnover in teams. Last year’s missed six included the ravaged Bears, Chiefs, and Peyton-less Colts. And while injuries are predictably likely the victim is unpredictable.

The other significant factor is schedule. Teams that finish in first play more teams that finished in first and last place teams play other teams that finished last. Each team plays two games against the three other teams in their own division. Also, there is somewhat of a rotating schedule. Each division in the NFC plays a division in the AFC on a rotating basis. So you can see why the AFC North could have three playoff teams last year as the Steelers, Ravens and Bengals all got to play the NFC West and the struggling Rams, Seahawks and Cardinals.

It is true that every game in the NFL is tough no matter who you play. But that still bodes well for teams like the Jets and Bills who only have to face one tough cross-conference foe (49ers) while the Titans get to play three (Packers, Lions, and Bears from the NFC North).

The last point about schedule: some places are tougher to play than others and facing a particular team at home or on the road can make all the difference. Traveling to Seattle is never fun, nobody does well against Drew Brees at the Superdome, Arrowhead in Kansas City is a nightmare, and Lambeau Field is about as rough a place as any. It's really luck of the draw.

Miller's FIVE RISERS

1. Bears. Last year they looked like one of the NFC's best teams until all their stars got hurt and fill-in Marion Barber forgot fundamentals of football. Now they finally have a star receiver for the first time since Marty Booker in 2001 with the addition of Brandon Marshall, and the ground duo of Matt Forte and Michael Bush really balance the offense. And there is never an issue with the Bears defense. Things can change, but a schedule with the Colts, Rams, Jags, Panthers, Vikings (twice), Seahawks at home and the Cardinals (8 very winnable games) looks pretty good on September 2.

2. Eagles. Everything went wrong for most of the season. In over half their 8 losses they blew a 4th-quarter lead, which means they should have won at least 10 or 11 games. Fans and media are putting pressure on Andy Reid, but after a full year together the defense will be better. The Eagles finished strong last year winning their last 4 by an average of 20 points, and that could flow into 2012.

3. Chiefs. Really, the Chiefs, Raiders or Chargers. The AFC West is such an even group, with the last-place Chiefs finishing just one game behind the first-place Broncos. And that was with a ton of key players ending on injured reserve (superstars Jamaal Charles and Eric Berry, and quarterback Matt Cassell). With a resurgent Charles welcoming Peyton Hillis (a year removed from the Madden Curse), the Chiefs should have the best ground and pound tandem in the NFL.

4. Bills. The Bills started off so well last year, beating the Patriots, Eagles, Chiefs in Kansas City and the Raiders and narrowly losing to the Bengals and Giants, but things just fell apart after that as they lost 8 of their 9 games. The biggest problem was lack of a pass rush, and they secured that with the addition of Super Mario Williams. They have a favorable schedule with games against the Browns, Cardinals, Colts, Jags, Rams, Seahawks (at home), and four games against the Jets and Dolphins.

5. Buccaneers. This is going out on a limb, especially for a team in such a strong division and conference. But you have to like Josh Freeman, especially from his first two seasons and hope that last year's blunders were simply a fluke. The front office gave him a definite boost by adding giant receiver Vincent Jackson, perennial Pro Bowl tight end Dallas Clark, and rookie back Doug Martin. If the defense steps up and either the Falcons or the Saints slip up, Bucs could slip in.