2010 Season Preview, #4: NFC South

The NFC South has been a division of equal opportunity as it has not had a repeat champion since the realignment in 2002, or even had any team make the playoffs two years in a row. The Super Bowl Champion Saints have a great chance to break that trend. Most writers and talking heads are picking a dropoff for no other reason than a honeymoon swoon, and picking the Falcons will win the division. There is another reason that's a good possibility.

The NFC South matches up this season with the strong AFC North, and while they play the same teams there are some big scheduling differences worth noting that favor the Falcons. The four AFC North teams are the Ravens, Bengals, Steelers, and Browns. The Falcons get the Bengals and Ravens at home, and are lucky enough to travel to Pittsburgh in Week 1 where Big Ben will not play. The Saints play the Bengals and Ravens on the road and get the Steelers in Week 8 when Big Ben is back. The Saints and Falcons also both play the 49ers; Falcons get them at home and Saints get them in San Francisco. The Saints better not take a honeymoon swoon or the streak of playoff inconsistency in the division may continue.

New Orleans Saints
The offense is as good as ever. Everyone is back and everybody seems to be healthy. Drew Brees had one of the greatest seasons ever. "He can't do it again," some may say, but I don't see him falling off a cliff, either. Especially with Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush, Marques Colston, Robert Meacham, Devery Henderson, etc. to share the ball with. The defense was remarkably opportunistic last year, their 8 defensive touchdowns were twice any other team. Gregg Williams is still in town, so they should still be good. I haven't heard of any big departures. Schedule is very tough: they play the Vikings, 49ers, and Falcons right off the bat. Darren Sharper, a lead playmaker on defense, is hurt and will miss at least the first six games.

Key Games: Vikings on Thursday on 9/9, 49ers on Monday Night Football on 9/20, Falcons on 9/26, @ Cowboys on Thanksgiving, @ Falcons on Monday Night Football on 12/27.
Projection: 12-4

Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons fell back to earth after flying high in 2008, going 9-7 and missing the playoffs. Injuries hit hard, and they stayed right in the middle of the pack in about every statistic. Matt Ryan is a smart guy and a good leader, but I'm not convinced that he's a Top 10 quarterback. However, it doesn't hurt having Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez to throw to and Michael Turner to hand off to. The place I'm most concerned is the defense. Atlanta did not win any shootouts; any game they allowed over 18 points they lost. and the only close games they won were 20-17 over the awful Buccaneers and 10-7 over the Jets. Like I mentioned above, they get a huge scheduling advantage over the Saints.

Key Games: 49ers on 10/3, Packers on 11/28, Saints on Monday Night Football on 12/27.
Projection: 10-6

Carolina Panthers
The Panthers deserved a better fate last year, but the ridiculous contract extension granted to Jake Delhomme after a terrible playoff loss earned that disappointment. There is reason for optimism with Matt Moore in charge, who helped the Panthers finish strong. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart form the best backfield duo in the NFL, no question. But Steve Smith, now on the wrong side of 30, has nobody to take away double coverage defense. The defense lost leader Julius Peppers. Matt Moore won games last year, but how good is he really now that he's in charge and rookie Jimmy Clausen is looking over his shoulder? The defense won't be able to stop many people, and opposing defenses will stack the box against the rush and force Moore to beat them. If the Panthers fall behind in games (as I expect), Stewart and Williams will have to take a lesser role.

Key Games: @ Giants 9/12, Saints 11/7, Falcons 12/12.
Projection: 7-9

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs may be good in 2012 but there is too much inexperience and untapped potential here in the meantime. The passing game is remarkably raw: Josh Freeman is the quarterback with Mike Williams and Maurice Stovall are the starting receivers. The running back is Cadillac Williams, a player who has never lived up to his expectations. First round draft pick Gerald McCoy could be a star on defense but he's a lonely star now. Last season's 3 wins will be tough to pass.

Key Games: Browns on 9/12, Rams on 10/24, Lions on 12/19, Seahawks on 12/26.
Projection: 2-14

2010 Season Preview, #3: NFC North

Brett Favre, perhaps you've heard of him? It's amazing how there are headlines saying Favre sent some texts to teammates saying his ankle is too bad to play, and then two weeks later he says his ankle is better than ever. Meanwhile, his old team is brimming with confidence and looks like a Super Bowl contender.

Green Bay Packers
This offense is bursting with playmakers. Aaron Rodgers finished last season as a top 4 in QB rating, passing yards and touchdowns. He has plenty of people to give the ball to again: Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, and Jermichael Finley are all capable of 1000-yard receiving seasons, and Ryan Grant looks to get his third straight season over 1200 rushing yards. ARod is mobile himself and scrambled for 300 yards and 5 touchdowns on the ground. The defense made the most of a soft schedule, leading the league in rushing defense and top 5 passing defense. However, they had their share of bad games, and 30 was the magic number: Packers were 0-6 when allowing 30 or more points and were 11-0 when keeping opponents under that. The road schedule is challenging (Eagles, Jets, Falcons, and Patriots) but the schedule in the first half is very generous; they could start 6-0, but don't get too excited because they could lose their next 6.

Key Games: Vikings on 10/24, Cowboys on 11/7, @ Vikings 11/21, 49ers on 12/5, @ Patriots 12/19.
Projection: 11-5

Minnesota Vikings
It feels that Brett Favre has been playing forever and it's true. He is coming off the best season of his career. His 7 interceptions were an outlier: he's had 14 seasons of 14+ INT's (twice last season's total), and his passing yardage was his highest in ten years. But there is no way that this gunner can repeat that miracle season. He's approaching 41 and he's already a grandfather. He has no ankle left. His favorite target Sidney Rice will miss the season with an injury and Percy Harvin's health is a huge question mark. But the Vikings still have Adrian Peterson and one of the league's best defenses. I'm a little concerned about AP's fumbling problem and I expect Favre to throw about 9 more interceptions this year (if he stays healthy). Like the Packers, the Vikings have a real tough stretch of games in October.

Key Games: @ Saints on Thursday 9/9, @ Jets on Monday Night Football on 10/11, Cowboys 10/17, @ Packers on 10/24, Packers on 11/21.
Projection: 10-6

Detroit Lions
When you are really bad for a long time you get a lot of good young talent in the draft. I don't think the Lions are ready to make a Dolphins-like leap in the standings, but the Lions will be much better. The offense has lots of weapons for former #1 draft pick Matthew Stafford: Megatron Calvin Johnson, newcomers Nate Burleson and TE Tony Sheffler, 2009 first round pick TE Brandon Pettigrew, 2010 first round pick RB Jahvid Best. The awful defense added monster Ndamukong Suh and Pro Bowler Kyle Vanden Bosch, and with Coach Schwarz having a year on his belt with the Lions, that unit should be better. Matthew Stafford will make lots of mistakes, but when you're coming off a total of 2 wins in two seasons there isn't a lot of pressure.

Key Games: Rams on 10/10, Redskins on 10/31, Bears on 12/5.
Projection: 5-11

Chicago Bears
After a disastrous season, you would think that hiring Mike Martz as the offensive coordinator and picking up Julius Peppers on defense, along with bringing back Brian Urlacher, would bring some optimism for the season. It doesn't seem to be working. Jay Cutler is having a miserable preseason and it appears that he doesn't trust his offensive line. The most important players on defense (Briggs and Urlacher) are hurting. It would be nice for Matt Forte to have a bounce-back season, but Jay Cutler will play like a poor man's Brett Favre from a few years ago. They better beat the Lions in Week 1 because if not they will be 0-5.

Key Games: Lions on 9/12, Packers on Monday Night Football on 9/27, Vikings on 11/14.
Projection: 5-11

NFL Season Preview, #2: NFC East

Normally a regular powerhouse division, the NFC Eest has more uncertainty in it than any other division. For the bottom three teams, it would not be a huge surprise if any of them went 11-5 or 5-11.



Dallas Cowboys
Here's what we know: the Cowboys are the clear-cut best in the division. Tony Romo and the Cowboys got the playoff monkey off their back last season, but they'll have to win more than one playoff game if they want to play the Super Bowl at home. Things are looking good for that opportunity. Although he does something really dumb on a regular basis, Tony Romo is an elite NFL quarterback with playoff experience, a great indicator for team success, and he is in position for a career year. Miles Austin broke out as an elite receiver last year, Jason Witten is an elite receiving tight end, and Dez Bryant should be able to take Roy William's place and contribute on the other side (if he can get on the field). The running back committee of Marion Barber, Felix Jones, and Tashard Choice is among the league's best corp. DeMarcus Ware is an elite defensive player. No, there is no shortage of star power with the Cowboys. The schedulers did no favors for the Cowboys as their road schedule is brutal: out of division road games in Indianapolis, Minnesota, Houston, and Green Bay.

Key Games: Giants on Monday Night Football 10/25, @ Packers on 11/7, Saints on Thanksgiving.
Projection: 11-5

New York Giants
With the Jets making all the noise this offseason, the Giants have been very quiet in the news. The defense, which was so problematic last year, should be much better (couldn't be any worse); in the preseason they look very deep and their new D-coordinator should keep things in control. Last year the offense was awful in the red zone and their ground game was middle of the pack, a year after they led the NFL. Brandon Jacobs' best years are behind him and its time for Ahmad Bradshaw to emerge among the league rushing leaders. The o-line is a concern so they added former Pro Bowler Shawn Andrews, but their center is hurting. Without Plaxico Burress, Eli Manning had a productive season with the Giants' young but deep receiving group. Yes I'm a Giants fan, and I'm optimistic about the season. And they did beat the Cowboys twice in '09.

Key Games: @ Cowboys on MNF on 10/25, Cowboys on 11/14, @ Eagles on 11/21, @ Minnesota 12/12.
Projection: 9-7

Philadelphia Eagles
The Kevin Kolb era in Philadelphia is beginning. The Eagles offense is very young but looks pretty talented, with DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Jason Avant, and Brent Celek, with LeSean McCoy in the backfield. It is difficult to lose your two best players over the last decade (McNabb and Westbrook) and stay consistent. The Eagles will be great in 2011 but I'm not high on them for this year; expect good statistics with inexperience mistakes for Kolb. Tough end of season schedule: last 7 games have Giants and Cowboys twice, Vikings, Texans, and at the Bears.

Key Games: Eagles on 10/3 (McNabb "homecoming"), Giants on Monday Night Football on 11/21, Vikings on 12/26.
Projection: 7-9

Washington Redskins
This is what I see: an over-the-hill quarterback that the Eagles felt fine with trading to a division rival, over-the-hill Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson, and Willie Parker as the running back committee all on their last legs, a bad offensive line, no real #2 receiver, a $100 million man on defense with all sorts of issues (Albert Haynesworth), coming off a 12-loss season. Luckily a game against the Rams ought to get them in the win column early in the season. There's a chance that Mike Shanahan can bring new life to DC (he didn't exactly leave the Broncos on top), but there are too many question marks.

Key Games: Cowboys on 9/12, Eagles on Monday Night Football on 11/15, Giants on 1/2.
Projection: 5-11

does anybody want to make the playoffs?

The San Diego Padres have led the National League (or been within 1 game) on May 1, June 1, July 1, and August 1, boast the best bullpen and most solid rotation in the National League and are headed for the postseason.

Who wants to join them?

- Atlanta Braves just got swept in Colorado, capped by blowing a 10-1 lead yesterday.
- Cincinnati Reds blew a 10-1 lead in San Francisco, finally winning in 12 innings to avoid getting swept.
- Philadelphia Phillies just got swept (4 games) at home to the Astros. What?
- St Louis Cardinals just lost 2 of 3 in Pittsburgh.
- San Francisco Giants lost their three previous series before playing the Reds.
- Colorado Rockies lost 4 of 6 to the Dbacks and Dodgers before playing the Braves, but have moved 4 games within the Wild Card leaders.

That's not really asserting yourselves as a championship contender.

NFL Season Preview, #1: NFC West Division

I'm starting my division by division preview with the easiest division, the NFC West.

Other than Peyton Manning, no player meant more to his team than Kurt Warner for the Cardinals, or rather, there is no greater drop-off with his replacement than going from Kurt Warner to Matt Leinhart. That is the top story for the NFC West this season. Alex Smith was not worth the #1 overall pick in the 2005 draft and he never will be great, but sadly he's probably the top quarterback in this weak division. And the toughest thing for this group: their out of division schedule includes tough divisions NFC South and AFC West.

San Francisco 49ers
No team was happier to see Warner retire than the 49ers. I'm a believer in Mike Singletary and I love what he has done with this team. Frank Gore leads a solid ground game, Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree lead an average receiving corp. The defense obliterated bad teams last year, and they will see several more this season. They ought to sweep the division. Alex Smith keeps the 49ers outside of the elite group of teams. They have an easy home schedule, but they play the Falcons, Packers, and Chargers all on the road.

Key Games: Saints on Monday Night 9/20, @ Chargers on Thursday 12/12.
Projection: 12-4

Seattle Seahawks
The biggest thing the Seahawks have going for them is a big home field advantage. Qwest Field is great and it's a long plane ride for the Giants, Chiefs, Panthers, Falcons, and Rams. Other than that, the 'Hawks have a weak offensive line with 1st round draft pick left tackle Russell Okung already hobbling on a bad ankle. The quarterback is old and injury prone, the running backs and wide receivers are unimpressive. Couple that with a bottom-10 defense and this will be a hard 16 games. Pete Carroll will add some excitement until they get blown out at home to the 49ers in Week 1.

Key Games: Falcons on 12/19.
Projection: 5-11.

Arizona Cardinals
It's not just future Hall of Famer Kurt Warner the Cardinals lost, also receiver Anquan Boldin, and key defensive players Dansby and Antrel Rolle. Matt Leinhart is a poor NFL quarterback and backup Derek Anderson ain't any better. Larry Fitzgerald is an elite receiver but there is no Boldin to pull defenses away and Kurt Warner isn't throwing to him, and he is already dealing with a bad knee. The defense gave up 90 points in their last two games. And along with all that, they have a tough, division-winner schedule that includes road games in Atlanta, San Diego, Minnesota, and the Super Bowl champ Saints and Cowboys coming into town.

Key Games: 49ers on Monday Night 11/29.
Projection: 5-11

St Louis Rams
This team is like a 16 year old girl who was just handed the keys of the Jaguar for a drive on the Audubon: it's destined for failure. And it's more like the brakes are failing and the steering is out of alignment. Rookie Sam Bradford, who had two significant shoulder injuries a year ago, will be under center behind a terrible offensive line, with no quality receivers to throw to, and a terrible defense. Steven Jackson is a star, but he has taken a beating and has had injury concerns in the past. They will probably win a game, but not many more.

Key Games: Seahawks on 10/3, @ Lions on 10/10, @ Bucs on 10/24.
Projection: 1-15

looking ahead to October

My preseason pick for the World Series was Yankees and Phillies. Yeah, no surprise, Repeat of last season. In the first half the Phillies were struggling in all facets, including wins. At the All Star break, The Phillies looked totally dead and I changed my pick to the Braves. However, many things changed when the Phils picked up Roy Oswalt. They've finally turned it on this month and are winning games.

San Diego Padres have been THE best story of the year in baseball. I think I expected them to lose 100 games and they will come close to winning 100 games. They have the most solid bullpen in baseball and one of the most solid, unsplendid but solid, starting rotations in the National League. And somehow they have hit enough to win games. Just so you know, I've been a believer in the Padres since May. Adrian Gonzalez deserves attention in the MVP discussion.

Atlanta Braves are still winning and probably won't fall out of first place in the division. Braves are solid just about everywhere. While I don't expect Derek Lee to be five years younger all of a sudden with a Braves jersey on, it will only help to have him on the team in the absence of Chipper Jones. Especially as a leader. Tim Hudson is an ace and a big game pitcher.

I listen to a lot of sports radio, and ESPN's Colin Cowherd totally rips the Reds everyday. They have a losing record against every good National League team. The Cardinals have the best 1-2 combo in the NL, Adam Wainwright (who will win the Cy Young award in the National League) and Chris Carpenter, along with the game's best hitter (Albert Pujols), and recently swept the Reds. And manager Tony La Russa. Hey Colin, I would rather have a lead in the division than Pujols, Wainwright and Carpenter and La Russa and not make the playoffs. Reds will be playing in October.


The Phillies are going back to the World Series. Any team with baseball's two Roys (Halladay and Oswalt) along with almost-ace Cole Hamels as a #3, with Utley, Howard (who's coming back), Rollins, Polanco, and Werth for support, with playoff success experience, will win the National League this year. The Achilles Heal is the bullpen; I don't trust Brad Lidge. But even if that costs them a game, there is enough here to win 7 other games.

And one piece on the Yankees: the most important player on the Yankees the rest of the way is Andy Pettitte. I think Andy Pettitte will be back for the playoffs. He has been hurt and has had a couple setbacks, so it is not a certainty. However, if Pettitte is unable to pitch in the playoffs (or obviously if something crazy happens to CC), the Yankees will NOT win the World Series. That's right, coming from me, a big Yankees fan. Phil Hughes will probably go to the bullpen, and I do NOT trust Javier Vazquez and AJ Burnett. If Pettitte does not come back, then not getting Cliff Lee during trading season will cost the Yankees a championship.

If Pettitte is a go, the Yankees will win the World Series. But if he can't, the Phillies will be champions.

a lot to look forward to

The AFC is going to be a great race this season. The playoffs include four division winners and two Wild Card teams. The Chargers probably won't be as great as they've been the last few years, but they are still way ahead of the Chiefs, Broncos, and Raiders so count on them. And Peyton Manning's Colts are the surest bet for 12 wins a season that we've ever seen.

That leaves four spots up for grabs. As I am preparing for the season and going through the teams and schedules to make my predictions, I am amazed at the strength of the league. Injuries are unfortunately bound to frustrate some team's hopes. But the Patriots, Jets, Dolphins, Bengals, Ravens, Steelers, Titans, and Texans are all very legitimate playoff candidates. How exciting for football fans!

The others: Jaguars and Broncos don't have great teams but were playoff bound until the final week a year ago. Chiefs and Raiders have made lots of changes and are ready to display big improvement. You can probably put those four teams in the mix too at this point.

You can forget about the Browns and Bills, who are struggling and are way behind the rest of the conference. Compare that to the NFC with the Rams, Lions, Bucs, Seahawks, Cardinals, and Redskins (two bad teams versus six bad teams).

NFL Expectations, 2010 Edition

The most popular sport in America is the NFL, by far. It is almost September, which means the season is super close to starting. I liked how I did this for the baseball season so I'll do the same for the NFL teams.

The NFL prides itself on parity. Because of teams like the Atlanta Falcons and Miami Dolphins of the recent past, every team starts with a chance of making the playoffs and competing for the Super Bowl so optimism flows freely.

So the dream of every team is to win the Super Bowl, right? And that means that the season was a failure and utter disappointment for the other 31 teams who don't? Not really. Teams are at different places in their development. The Rams won 1 game last year and have a rookie quarterback running the show, and the Lions and Bucs won 2 or 3 and have a 2nd-year QB under center. Survival will be a success.

Here are realistic goals that can produce a successful season for each team, ranked in order of prestige. In January and February, look back on these benchmarks to get a realistic picture on the success or failure of your team. I would also like to point out that it is possible for teams to surpass these expectations. Basically, this benchmarks complete the statement: "If this team ______ then the season was successful. Anything less is a failure."

WIN SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONSHIP
Ravens, Cowboys, Colts, Vikings, Patriots, Jets, Chargers

WIN CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP
Falcons, Packers, Saints, Steelers

WIN A PLAYOFF GAME
Bengals, Giants, 49ers

MAKE THE PLAYOFFS
Cardinals, Panthers, Texans, Jaguars, Dolphins, Eagles, Redskins, Titans

GETS 8 WINS (.500)
Bills, Bears, Broncos, Raiders, Seahawks

GETS 6 WINS (RESPECTABILITY)
Browns, Lions, Chiefs, Rams, Buccaneers

NFL Power Report, training camp edition

The dog days of summer are here, which means baseball season has been going on forever and preseason football games are getting better TV ratings than Red Sox vs. Yankees rivalry games.

The NFL has turned into a pass-happy league where quarterbacks are king. Here is a quick ranking of the NFL starting quarterbacks. You will notice that there is a strong correlation between teams with a top-level quarterback and therefore a great team, compared to teams that are weak in that position and therefore near the bottom.

Elite: Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady
Great: Tony Romo, Matt Schaub, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers
Good Enough: Brett Favre, Joe Flacco, Eli Manning, Ben Rothlisberger, Carson Palmer, Donovan McNabb, Jay Cutler
Average: Matt Ryan, Kevin Kolb, Vince Young, Jason Campbell, David Garrard
Below Average: Mark Sanchez, Alex Smith, Chad Henne, Matt Cassell, Matt Hasselback, Kyle Orton, Matt Moore
Liability: Matt Leinhart, Jake Delhomme, Matthew Stafford, Josh Freeman, Sam Bradford, Trent Edwards

Before I make my season and Super Bowl predictions, here is a quick team preview Power Report.

1. Colts. You won't find many people who have a different team at #1. Peyton Manning is as automatic in the regular season as any player in history. Last year we saw Pierre Garcon and BYU alumn Austin Collie blossom. The defense is stingy.

2. Saints. Drew Brees had one of the greatest seasons a quarterback has ever had last year, no question. There are so many weapons on offense. The defense has playmakers that were very lucky with turnovers and touchdowns, and I don't think they will be as lucky.

3. Cowboys. Where is the weakness? Romo is probably at the top of the second tier of quarterbacks and has lots of weapons to throw to and to hand off. The defense was a lockdown at the end of last season. Romo got the playoff monkey off his back and they are in good shape to make a run at a hometown Super Bowl.

4. Chargers. For such a quiet team that you don't hear anything about, Chargers won 13 games last year and are in position for close to the same. Vincent Jackson is suspended for a few games, but Philip Rivers has plenty of other targets. The Chargers got rid of LT (one season too late), and they they will be improved with rookie Ryan Matthews, who can also help Darren Sproles stay fresh and explosive.

5. Ravens. Anquan Boldin should be happy in Baltimore, and that is good news for Flacco and the Ravens. Taking the attention off Ray Rice will help him stay at the top of his game. The biggest question mark for the Ravens is the secondary that is dealing with injuries, especially star Ed Reed.

6. Packers. In the second half of the season Green Bay showed that they can finally protect Aaron Rodgers, so if that continues then the Packers should improve from their 11 wins last year. The Packers gave up 51 points to the Cardinals in the playoffs, three weeks after allowing 37 to the Steelers.

7. Patriots. Jets and Dolphins make all the noise, but Tom Brady is still in New England and that makes all the difference. Patriots finally showed that you can't continue to lose stars on defense and still be a strong unit. Last year was a bad year for Belichek, this will be an ultimate test for him, whether he can turn the defense into winners or fall apart like last year.

8. Bengals. No longer the Bungles, Cincinnati went undefeated in the division last year and added T.O. The defense was top 10 last year. Good defense, good quarterback, good receivers, good running back.

9. Jets. Mark Sanchez was one of the worst quarterbacks in the regular season but he kept his head together and performed well in the playoffs. I do not like the way the Jets unloaded team lead rusher Thomas Jones and Leon Washington and added an over-the-hill LaDamian Tomlinson. Too much depends on Shonn Greene. The Revis situation is ugly, and it seems unlikely that he will start Week 1. Their early season schedule is Ravens, Patriots, and at Miami. Still, they appear to be everyone else's favorite to win the division and make noise in the playoffs again.

10. Falcons. I haven't heard much news from Atlanta, but the Falcons should be able to improve on their 9 wins from last year with all the talent they have on offense. They were hit with the injury bug a lot last year so if fortunes are better, with Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez and Michael Turner, Matt Ryan will have a solid year.

11. Vikings. This is probably low compared to where most people are placing them. But their head is soon-to-be 41 year old Brett Favre with a bad ankle. If not him, then Tavaris Jackson. The defense is really strong and Adrian Peterson is one of the best running backs in the league. But he does have fumbling problems and they lost veteran backup Chester Taylor, so I see a little drop off.

12. Giants. They started 5-0 last year and looked solid before falling apart defensively. I think they addressed the defense pretty well in the draft. The young receivers all have a lot of good potential, and if the Giants can find a ground game again they should contend for a playoff spot.

13. Texans. Schaub and Andre Johnson is the best air connection in the NFL. The Texans got hit with a lot of bad luck last year or they could have won 3 more games. They had no running game last year, so they will need to one or more of Steve Slaton, rookie Ben Tate, Ryan Moats, or Arian Foster to succeed.

14. Dolphins. I believe in Chad Henne, and he can only get better with a new target like Brandon Marshall. We might not see a lot of Wildcat formation this year, but Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams should lead one of the top ground games again.

15. 49ers. Kurt Warner's retirement must have seemed like Christmas to the people in San Francisco. This team is not great and Alex Smith hasn't proved that his #1 pick was a wise one, but the 49ers have been building a good team for a decade now and this is the time to bust out as the rest of the division has fallen apart.

16. Eagles. Westbrook and McNabb are long gone, so Andy Reid is depending on young guys Kevin Kolb and LeSean McCoy to get the offense moving. Kolb has seen his top two targets DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin get carted off the field this month so those are some concerns to keep an eye on. The Eagles could do nothing on offense against the Cowboys last year.

17. Titans. Vince Young might not be a proficient passer, but he is a winner. His career record as a starter is 32-16 (30-2 in college). Chris Johnson is my favorite running back in football and I hope the heavy load he carried last year doesn't slow him down this year. And they have added some receivers to help those two. Defensively, they have lost their two stars the last two years (Haynesworth and Vanden Bosch) so it remains to be seen whether they can stop anyone.

18. Steelers. This is a different team without Big Ben under center. They are also without their top receiver from last year Santonio Holmes. The first four games with Byron Leftwich under center are against the Falcons, at Tennessee, at Tampa Bay, and the Ravens. Hopefully for Pittsburgh, Troy Polomalu can stay healthy; if so, this defense is one of the best. Last year without him lost to the Chiefs, Raiders, Bears, and Browns.

19. Panthers. Carolina could have saved their season had they cut ties with Jake Delhomme before he put them in a hole too deep to get out of. I really liked what I saw with Matt Moore last year. I don't think he's a long-term solution, but he should fit nicely in preparation for Jimmy Clausen to take over next year perhaps. Former elite receiver Steve Smith broke his arm this offseason but he says he will be ready for Week 1. The Panthers lost their defensive leader Julius Peppers, so if no one steps up their pass defense will be a bit softer.

20. Raiders. The difference between the Raiders with JaMarcus Russell and anybody else is night and day. Jason Campbell is an average NFL quarterback but with him Oakland is a playoff contender. The Raiders have Darren McFadden and Michael Bush at running back, and one or both are capable of breaking out.

21. Cardinals. The difference between Kurt Warner and Matt Leinhart is night and day, too. Leinhart hasn't really had a chance to prove himself yet, and he may play well enough. The Cards lost Boldin, but they still have Larry Fitzgerald and Steven Breaston, and Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower will provide an average running game. The defense isn't very good.

22. Jaguars. I like Maurice Jones-Drew, but he has carried quite a load and there is no one else to take away the attention of the defense from him. David Garrard got picked for the Pro Bowl last year, but he has never been an above average QB.

23. Bears. Running back Matt Forte went from stud to dud and Jake Cutler became a turnover machine. Devin Hester was an elite kick returner but is not a dependable receiver. The defense gained a couple Pro Bowlers in Julius Peppers and Brian Urlacher, who missed all of last season with an injury, so that will help.

24. Chiefs. KC had a miserable season but made some good moves. Jamaal Charles became a star last season, and then they picked up 1400 yard gainer Thomas Jones as a compliment. They drafted Eric Berry, who is a star and leader on defense, and then Dexter McCluster, who's an electric playmaker on offense or special teams. Hiring Charlie Weis and Romeo Crenell as coordinators will bring improvement and stability to a team that I believe lost both right before the beginning of last season.

25. Lions. They have some pieces now on offense with Stafford, Megatron Calvin Johnson, and rookie Jahvid Best, and the defense picked up monster Ndamukong Suh, so the Lions have a little more bite.

26. Redskins. The group of running backs in D.C. would be unstoppable in 2005; unfortunately this five years later. McNabb has missed games with injuries in 4 of last 5 seasons, and the Redskins don't have a great offensive line. They don't have a #2 receiver. Their $100 million man on defense is disgruntled and out of shape. Shanahan's team is an intriguing group, but bound to disappoint.

27. Seahawks. My condolences to Seahawk fans from 2006, where recently the referee admitted he blew a couple calls that cost Seatle the Super Bowl win. There is nothing I particularly like about this team. They will draft a quarterback in the first round next season with a very high pick.

28. Bills. They still don't have a quarterback and they lost their top receiver. The team gets no support from their city. They should have a decent defense and ground game.

29. Broncos. The top 2 running backs are hurt, their best offensive player (Brandon Marshall) is gone, and their quarterbacks are Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow. Yikes! Defensively, their best player is also hurt, along with one or two other linebackers, so this team won't be able to stop anyone.

30. Buccaneers. Josh Freeman is the quarterback and I have a hard time naming one other player on the team. They might be good in 2012.

31. Browns. Jake Delhomme went 4-8 with a talented Carolina Panthers last year (and his backup went 4-1). Now Delhomme is the head man in Cleveland? What can he do with that team?

32. Rams. This is by far the worst team in the NFL. A rookie quarterback with lots of recent injuries and no receivers of note and a real weak offensive line, with the only weapon being Steven Jackson, a horse who has been overused and abused the last few seasons, one of the weakest defenses last year... three wins would be an accomplishment.

My thoughts on 600 and ARod

Alex Rodriguez hit home run #600 this week, a feat accomplished by only 6 other players in history. Everybody has an opinion on Alex Rodriguez. Here is mine:

-The man can flat-out hit. He's one of the greatest hitters of all time. He will likely break Hank Aaron and Barry Bond's home run records and probably some other ones, too (like the RBI record). And all this not as an outfielder or first-baseman, but shortstop and 3rd baseman.

-He signed a 10 year, $252 million contract to play for the Texas Rangers, followed by a 10 year $275 million contract with the Yankees. This is where many fans get turned off ARod. But how many other people on planet earth are worth half a billion dollars? Not many. You can't blame him for taking money offered to him. He never whined or held-out before that. He did his best in Seattle, but if they can't win with himself, Griffey, Edgar Martinez, Randy Johnson et al, can you blame him for wanting to go somewhere else? You can't call it greed; instead, call the Rangers and Yankees stupid over-spenders.

-ARod had a chance to be easily the greatest shortstop in the game's history. No one will debate that. But he sold out to join the Yankees and move over to third base. This is a strangely similar story to LeBron James joining DeWayne Wade in Miami. And this wasn't at the end of his career when his skills were deteriorating; this was at the peak of his career. He will never be the greatest shortstop of all time or the greatest third baseman of all time now.

-The man tested positive and admitted to using steroids over a 3 year period (2001-03). This is where it gets really hairy. He says it was because of an "enormous pressure to perform." I can understand that. As we can now see, plenty of other players around him were doing it, too. It was part of the game for at least 15 years. And he probably felt an obligation to the Texas Rangers since they signed him to the biggest contract in sports history. It was dumb and against the rules, but that's the game. He never did anything worthy of getting suspended or lying to Congress.

All you purists out there: the Speed Limit is 50. Do you go 55 or 60? Why? Because everybody else is doing it and you won't get disciplined if you only break the rules by 5-10 mph. So you want his records scratched because of something he did almost 10 years ago that weren't considered outrageous at the time? That's the way it was. They've made some changes to the rules, created punishments. The punishment has been decided by league officials, a 50 game suspension. Why do you think you can create your own punishments, like banning him from Hall of Fame consideration? That's silly. The discipline is what it is. You can't punish someone for something done before the punishment was affixed.

How can you determine the effect of steroids on his numbers? How many home runs are a result from being juiced? It's really impossible to say. However, compare him to Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire, and Barry Bonds. Sosa went from 36-40-36 home runs batting .265 to 66-63-50-64 batting .320. McGwire went from 30-50 home runs to 70 and 65 and looked like the Incredible Hulk. Bonds went from a sure-fire Hall of Famer who never hit more than 46 home runs to 72 out of the blue. Alex Rodriguez has remained remarkably consistent for his whole career. There was no spike in production. Its possible that the steroids didn't even have a significant impact on him. It's impossible to know.

-His personal life leaves much to be desired. There were the pictures of him kissing a mirror. While married many other women (mostly strippers, dancers and prostitutes) claimed he had sex with them on multiple occasions. While these may just be nobodys trying to make news, where there's lots of smoke there is usually fire. Madonna seemed to be in the picture too, though she claims they were just "friends". For a person under one of media's largest microscopes he does a lot of dumb things.

-He's always in the middle of controversy, pissing off opponents by distracting them on pop-flies, slapping at their mitts, running across the mound (the last of which I find insignificant).

-He's not a very good person, I agree. However, many super stars in most sports have that reputation too.

-He's a Yankee now, so I'll cheer for him. He has won games for us, including a World Series championship. I don't love him, I won't buy his jersey, but I'll cheer when he gets hits and wish him success.