Week 10 Power Report

I started working two jobs (actually it’s 3) a month ago so I haven’t had any time to blog. Recently I’ve been a little critical of a friend’s power ranking so I thought I’d better post mine up.
This NFL season has gone similar to most college seasons: we started with a Top 10, then Top 8, Top 7, Top 5, and now after the Ravens and Lions had bad losses we are down to a clear Top 2.
This was a funny week as most of the worst teams (Rams, Cardinals, Seahawks, Dolphins, Broncos, and Jaguars) all won.
I also find a little commentary pretty important so there’s a note for each team.

At the Top
1. Packers. Brett who?
2. 49ers. This is what we were expecting prior to last season, but this is the surprise team of the year, no question. It was nice to finally get to see Patrick Willis on TV, he is stinkin’ fast. 49ers defense is solid. And the offense doesn’t give up the ball. 5-game division lead.

Looking Mostly Good
3. Steelers. Lost a tough game against the Ravens last week but finally get a division win on the road in Cincinnati.
4. Saints. 2-game lead over the Falcons after the road win in Atlanta.
5. Ravens. Trapped again for the 3rd time: losses against inferior teams followed both big wins over the Steelers and the win over the Texans make me really question the Ravens’ emotional fortitude. Why did Ray Rice, their best offensive player, only have 5 carries?
6. Texans. I had them at 4 until I saw the news that Matt Schaub is done for the year and Coach Kubiak is handing the reigns to Matt Leinhart. At least they have a bye week to prepare. No Andre Johnson, no problem: Texans win their 4th in a row outscoring their opponent 132-42. A healthy Arian Foster is picking up from last year, and Ben Tate and even Derrick Ward are also joining the fun. The opposition hasn’t been great, and after a bye they get another softie against the Jaguars.
7. Bears. Emphatically avenge an earlier loss to the Lions with a total beat down. Devin Hester does it again. Here’s a stat for you: Bears are 5-0 this year when Jay Cutler is sacked two times or less.
8. Giants. They lost but I’m not sure the 49ers were the better team; the GMen just made too many mistakes. There was some very questionable coaching, including bad challenges and poor play calling on the final drive: why do they run so many handoff plays when they are playing the league’s stiffest run defense and Eli and the receivers are clicking? Despite the loss, the Giants are solid contenders in the NFC.
9. Lions. Sunshine seems to have passed after their 3rd loss in 4 games following their 5-0 start. Along with that, they have become the dirtiest and most unclassy team in the league, from their coach to their quarterback to their star lineman. The remaining schedule is tough, including two matchups with the Packers and trips to Oakland and New Orleans.
10. Patriots. For the second time this season, the maligned Patriots defense outplayed the vaunted Jets defense. Tom Brady finally got back on track. Rob Gronkowski has become one of the best and most unguardable tight ends in the NFL. There’s not a lot of talent outside of Brady, but the Patriots can still beat any other team on any given week. The schedule is ridiculously favorable the rest of the way.

The Merry Middle of the Pack
11. Bengals. Record is impressive and the defense is strong, but the Bengals still haven’t beaten anybody good.
12. Cowboys. Romo had a practically perfect first half against the Bills.
13. Raiders. A statement win without their star running back.
14. Jets. Fell back to earth with a thud. Revis is the league’s best defensive player. I’ve said it before, but the (rest of the) defense is not scary, the running game is below average, the offensive line is bad, and Sanchez is a mediocre quarterback. The Jets are an overrated team and they have been dreadful in their 4 losses.
15. Falcons. I don’t have a big problem with going for it on 4th and inches, but trying to run up the gut when the Saints have ALL ELEVEN defensive players surrounding the Falcons’ center was a terrible call. A little play-action toss away from the middle could have been a 70 yard run to the endzone.
16. Bills. One of the most potent offenses in the NFL for the first month has compiled 18 points over their last 2 games and looks awful. The defense can’t stop anybody. 2-4 over their last 6 games.
17. Titans. There has been a Chris Johnson sighting. Titans defense became the first unit to completely shut down the Kid Wonder Cam Newton.
18. Chargers. Their record in September was indeed misleading: a 4-1 but unimpressive start has totally crashed after their 4th straight loss. Philip Rivers is supposed to be an elite quarterback, not the leader in interceptions. His 21 turnovers match his career high and they’ve still got 7 games left.
19. Buccaneers. I was expecting a step forward this season for Josh Freeman, LeGarrette Blount and the Bucs, but they have taken a serious fall backward. Freeman now has 13 interceptions, more than double last year’s total of 6.
20. Eagles. Finding new ways to lose every game. It’s true that the Eagles are capable of beating any team in any given week, but they are also capable of losing to the Cardinals. Some of the blame can go to the absence of DeSean Jackson and injury to Jeremy Maclin. And now Michael Vick has broken ribs. Yikes!
21. Broncos. No question that the stat of the week is 55:2 = ratio of Broncos carries to passes in a WIN on the road. Despite being down their two lead halfbacks, Denver still ran the ball down the Chiefs’ throats for 244 yards. John Fox has done a great job coaching and the Broncos are now tied for 2nd only one game behind.

Bad at the Bottom
22. Vikings. Simply no match for the Green Bay Aaron Rodgers as the Vikings drop to 0-4 in the division.
23. Seahawks. The 12th man strikes again.
24. Chiefs. You can only remove so many parts to a car before the engine falls out. Starting quarterback, superstar running back, Pro Bowl safety, starting tight end… those bodies are not easy to replace.
25. Cardinals. Love the catch by Larry Fitzgerald. Too bad the Cardinals gave up so much for Kevin Kolb and are paying him so much because his replacement looks light-years better.
26. Dolphins. Matt Moore has looked great, Reggie Bush is finally being productive, Brandon Marshall and Anthony Fasano are catching balls thrown to them, and the defense is playing well.
27. Rams. With home games against the Seahawks and Cardinals coming up, those 0-6 Rams can be 4-7 pretty soon.
28. Browns. One touchdown in their last 4 games.
29. Panthers. Ranked here as they have wins over the Jags and Redskins.
30. Jaguars. It is amazing how productive Maurice Jones-Drew continues to be despite having zero other teammates to take away defensive attention.
31. Redskins. Remember when they were first place 3-1? No one needs Andrew Luck more than the Redskins.
32. Colts. It is more likely that Indy goes 0-16 than 1-15.

Week 6 Power Report

The end of the Lions/49ers game was probably the most dramatic handshake in history. The highlight of the week has got to be the Lions’ coach taking exception to the ignorant “good game, best of luck next week” from Jim Harbaugh. Harbaugh was excited for his team to get a big win, and he is a pretty animated, excitable guy, no doubt. But come on, he slapped Jim Schwartz pretty hard, pushed him aside, and yelled out a "woo!" (along with what the Lions' coach thought was an obscenity). Harbaugh has to have a little more respect and act like he’s won before. Schwartz' overreaction was inappropriate, but I do like his "take no crap" attitude.

Stats o' the Week
-2: How's this statistical anomoly? The Patriots, Ravens and 49ers were all -2 in turnovers and each won. The 49ers also committed 15 penalties for 120 yards.

3: Rams points. The Rams gained 424 yards of offense, only gave away one turnover (as did their opponent), and managed to score only 3 points?

6: Patriots & Cowboys turnovers, compared to a combined 3 touchdowns.

17: Career kick return touchdowns for Devin Hester

25: Seems to be the magic number. Of the six teams with 1 or fewer losses (Packers, Patriots, Chargers, Lions, 49ers, Ravens), five have given up 25 points only once (Lions twice).

178: Dolphins' 1st quarter yards on offense (Jets had 10).

It looks like the league's passing frenzy has started to ease up. This week saw 6 quarterbacks throw for 300+ yards (none over 383), and there were 8 running backs who hit 100 yards rushing. In Week 5 there were eleven 100 yard rushers and just six 300 yard passers.

Power Report


1. Packers. Aaron Rodgers is on fire: 17 touchdowns (plus 2 more rushing), 3 interceptions, and a quarterback rating of 124.1. And his team is 6-0.
2. Patriots. I’m sick of hearing about the terrible Patriots’ defense. That “terrible” unit has allowed only 18 points a game over their last 3 contests.
3. Ravens. NFL’s best defense get the terrible Jaguars and Cardinals next.
4. 49ers. Speaking of defense, 49ers are the first team to keep Calvin Johnson out of the endzone. Rare win in the eastern time zone.
5. Lions. I’m glad Jim Schwartz has only lost 1 game this year. The last four Lions' possessions: 4 plays, punt. 3 plays, punt. 4 and out, 4 and out.
6. Saints. Defense gave up 420 yards and the offense turned the ball over 4 times. You’re not going to win doing that.
7. Chargers.
8. Raiders. I have mixed feelings about their trade. Carson Palmer may be the best QB on the market, but is he in shape? He hasn't played in forever. And he hasn't been too good the last couple years. And the Raiders have done a pretty bad job lately drafting in the first round, but losing 2 first round picks for Palmer? If he's decent then the Raiders ought to make the playoffs, but is that enough for what they gave up?
9. Steelers. Jags made it close in the end, but Steelers really dominated for a second easy win a row. And they play the Cardinals next.
10. Giants. Defense has more holes in the middle than swiss cheese. GMen receivers drop or tip waaaaay too many passes. But Eli and the defense step up when they need to and they rebounded from last week’s embarrassment with a nice win. Big Blue is alone in first.
11. Cowboys. Conservative play calling at the end, but can you blame Garrett for taking the ball out of Tony Romo the Goat’s hands?
12. Bears. Prettiest pass of the week belongs to Jay Cutler. Jay looks really good when there is no pressure and the Vikings defense did nothing.
13. Buccaneers. Josh Freeman has his best game of the year at the right time as the Bucs bounce back and beat the Saints to take first place. But this is one team that we need to see more if we want a good evaluation.
14. Titans. Texans, Jags, and Colts all lose. The bye week couldn’t have been better.
15. Texans. Back-to-back losses knock them out of first place and up next is a road game in Tennessee.
16. Bills. Offense is pretty good but while the defense has been opportunistic, they can’t stop anybody.
17. Jets. Over three games, the Jets offense had a string of 18 three-and-outs (3 plays and punt) in 25 possessions. That's 72% of their "drives" don't even get a first down.
18. Eagles. After a win and Cowboys/Redskins loss there is life again. Eagles have significantly outgained their opponent in all 6 games. In the last 4 games the Eagles have been outscored 23-56 in the second half, which maintains cause for concern.
19. Bengals. Only team that has not given up 25 points in a game.
20. Falcons. Falcons do pretty well when Matt Ryan doesn’t throw the ball very often. In 3 losses Ryan averages 42 pass attempts. In 3 wins he has averaged just 30.
21. Redskins. There has been a John Beck sighting. Before that you wondered how this team ever won 3 games. The defense has done a pretty good job keeping them in games.
22. Seahawks.
23. Chiefs.
24. Browns. It's official: Peyton Hillis is a victim of the Madden Curse.
25. Panthers. Had a lead after the 3rd quarter and put up some pretty good numbers, but 3 Cam Newton turnovers bury the Panthers again.
26. Vikings. McNabb looked ready to sign retirement papers in the game against the Bears. I know McNabb had a good career in Philadelphia, but at this point in his career, he is a terrible quarterback. When watching the Vikings play that is painfully obvious. Christian Ponder didn’t put up any impressive numbers coming in relief, but he made some plays and looked pretty good.
27. Broncos
28. Cardinals
29. Jaguars. You would think in a game where they were down 17-3 at halftime that Gabbert would pass for more than 109 yards.
30. Dolphins. It seems the Dolphin receivers don’t want anything to stop them from getting Andrew Luck. Matt Moore got no help at all against the Jets.
31. Colts. Made it interesting near the end, but it makes you wonder if they will ever win a game.
32. Rams. On the bright side, they shut out the Packers in the second half and gained more yards in the game. But they still lost by 3 touchdowns and are 0-5.

observations from the NFL weekend

a. You probably cannot dispute that Peyton Manning has the biggest influence of any player in a game, especially seeing what is happening on the Colts without him this year. But with those players that are actually on the field, nobody makes a bigger influence in a game than Devin Hester. His kickoff and punt returns are electric and can put instant points on the board. Even if he doesn’t score he often gets way down the field. Often kickers shank the ball out of bounds just to keep it away from him, giving Jay Cutler and the Bears incredibly generous field position to begin nearly every drive. As we saw in the opening of the Bears/Vikings game, his speed can make a huge influence on the offense, especially teamed with Jay Cutler’s incredible arm. After the Vikings had a great touchdown drive that looked like it may carry some momentum just after halftime, Hester returned the kickoff the distance and the Vikings didn’t show up after that. Devin Hester’s name is on the short list of NFL superstars.

b. Because kickoffs moved up, nearly every kickoff is going into the endzone. Contrary to the primary objective of the rule's principle, more and more players are returning the kick from the endzone. If you are Devin Hester, Ted Ginn, Percy Harvin, Darren Sproles, Joshua Cribbs or Percy Harvin then yes, I have no issue with that. But see Giants’ Daniel Thomas taking a kick out of the endzone, gets tackled around the 17, and there is a penalty that pulls the ball back to the 8 yard line. Instead of the 20, Eli has to start at the 8. Same thing in the Cowboys/Patriots game. In the second quarter the Cowboys return man took it out of the endzone, made it only to the 19, and an illegal block penalty gives Romo the ball at the 7 instead of 20. It happened for the Dolphins, and it happens for pretty much every team. Why? You have a better chance of 1) getting tackled before the 20, 2) the receiving team getting a penalty, and 3) someone getting hurt than breaking off a big run. Coaches need to tell their return men to quit being heroes.

c. I don’t like to blame the referees, but they really blew it early in the Monday Night Jets/Dolphins game and it completely changed the game. On a 3rd down play Matt Moore threw to Marshall, who was clearly hit, grabbed, and interfered by Darelle Revis. It should have been first and goal Dolphins from the 1, Fins ready to go up 10-0. Instead there was no flag, Revis ran all the way back, and the Dolphins didn’t score a touchdown the rest of the game. The way the pathetic Jets offense was moving, that could have been the difference. The refs blew another game a few weeks ago at the end of the Bears/Packers game.

d. Speaking of the Dolphins, receiver Brandon Marshall made headlines last week with his knucklehead comments that I referenced in my blog. No, he didn't start a fight, kick a ball, or get ejected. Ran out of bounds on a clear touchdown (they settled for a field goal), drops a ball in the endzone (0:30), misses another ball in the endzone (1:45) (they settled for a field goal), and he got outplayed by Revis in the endzone that went the other way (see above). He sure didn't play like a monster on the field, but he certainly gave coach Sparano a monster headache. All that talk about playing physical and with heart and that was the performance from him? What a joke.

Week 6 Preview

This is the most interesting collection on games I can ever remember for one week of the NFL. There are great story lines involved in nearly every game. This could be called Surprise Sunday. Everyone is on Upset Alert.

First, the strangest news of the week involves both the Jets and Dolphins, who both play each other on Monday night.

- Jets traded receiver Derrick Mason to the Texans for (likely) a 7th round draft pick.
Mason has over 12,000 receiving yards in his career. He seems healthy, but the Jets aren’t even getting him on the field. He only has 13 receptions and hardly played the last two games (by the way, both losses).
Some history: Last offseason the J-E-T-S cut ties with Braylon Edwards, Jerricho Cotchery, and Brad Smith and replaced them with 37 year old Mason and Plaxico who had been in prison the previous two years.
The year before, they gave up RB Thomas Jones right after a 1400 yard, 14 TD campaign (his fifth straight year topping 1100 yards) to give full reigns to Shonn Greene, who since then has not reached 1000 yards combined and reached the endzone only 4 times.

Whoever is in charge of this team is a terrible judge of talent, and a terrible game planner.

- And along with this, the Jets are imploding on the inside. One reason Mason may have been traded away was for his critical comments about the team’s offense. Hello, can you blame him? Santonio Holmes, a team captain, also made comments this week about how the offensive line was letting the team down. Anybody who has watched the Jets, especially the last three weeks, would agree. And now guard Brandon Moore is fighting back and ripping Holmes for his lack of leadership. Meanwhile, the Jets are in a must-win game on Monday Night against a Dolphins team who gets a long rest and preparation time for the game.

- On the other side of the ball, the biggest knucklehead of the week has to be Dolphins’ star receiver Brandon Marshall. Here’s a direct quote from a press interview this week:
“I don’t care if I have penalties, it doesn’t matter, I’m gonna let it all out. I don’t care what you guys write, …I’m just gonna play football. So I don’t know if it’s throwing a football 15 yards in the bleachers and getting a 15-yarder, or punting the ball and getting thrown out of the game, something’s gonna happen. I’ll probably get kicked out after the second quarter. They want to fine me, I don’t know, it’ll probably be a $50,000 fine, but that quarter and a half that I’m out there I’m gonna play like a monster. And I might get in a fight with Bart Scott, Cromartie…, so we’ll see. I consider myself a monster now. If you see a beast you should run because a beast is really scary. I don’t want to be that, I want to be a monster. A monster is like a little nightmare. You should run, you should be scared… hopefully I get kicked out in the second quarter.”

Right Brandon, because throwing or kicking the ball into the stands, fighting, collecting fines, earning 15-yard penalties and getting kicked out of the game in the first half will help your team win a game. Especially with a quarterback making his first start of the season. On the other hand, with Marshall playing the whole game the Fins are 0-4 so maybe it wouldn’t hurt to have him in the locker room for the second half. Don’t forget, a beast is not as scary as a monster. What a moron.

- Another interesting note: ESPN has established a new quarterback stat called Total Quarterback Rating, which is the most perfect stat rating of all time, blah blah blah. Last week, in a game where Tim Tebow played only the second half, completed only 4 of 10 passes in a Broncos loss, his TQR was higher than Aaron Rodgers, who completed 26 or 39 passes for 396 yards and 2 touchdowns in a win. Explain that.

The Games

- Lions vs. 49ers: Oddly enough, this pairing of two of the league’s worst teams over the last ten years is probably the best matchup of the week. 49ers defense has been really good and Alex Smith has surprisingly been a good quarterback, despite dealing with many injuries in his receivers. The Lions are 5-0 and have a great offense and defense, but they have to lose sometime and this looks like a potential letdown. The difference will probably be a defensive or special teams touchdown. My pick: 49ers.

- Patriots vs. Cowboys. Patriots have the league’s best offense and worst defense, despite their beat down of the Jets in Week 5. They have also given up the most plays of 20+ yards. Tony Romo will have Miles Austin and Dez Bryant in this one, along with a healthier Felix Jones. But don’t forget, the Cowboys secondary is just as bad and the Tom Brady will have a big day. I’m tempted to follow the hype and pick against the Patriots, but they are at home and Tom Brady doesn’t lose at home. My pick: Patriots.

- Redskins vs. Eagles: Things are going from bad to worse in Philly. Here’s a stat for you: the Eagles have outgained their opponent in every game and are 1-4. How does that happen? Turnovers, penalties, and mistakes, and no one has made more than the Eagles. Redskins are coming off a bye and have had a lot of time to prepare. The Eagles are definitely desperate, and another loss would put them at 1-5, and the Redskins at 5-1. My pick: Redskins.

- Falcons vs. Panthers: In this offense-happy league the Falcons were supposed to field one of the top offenses in the league but they have been in the bottom half of the league, as well as their defense. The “improved” defense has been disappointing and can’t get pressure on any quarterback. Enter Cam Newton. This is a home game for the Falcons, and Matt Ryan has a great record at home, and the Panthers certainly aren’t the Packers, but there is definitely upset potential in this game, especially with Julio Jones not playing. My pick: Panthers

- Giants vs. Bills: Giants are the only team that plays better on the road than at home (and this is a home game). They are coming off the biggest disappointment of the season. They are starting to get some injured players back but several more are pulling out. The Bills have beaten the Patriots, Raiders, and Eagles this season, Fred Jackson has been incredible in the backfield, and the Giants have been run on a lot this year. I hate picking against my team, and they win every time I do so here goes. My pick: Bills.

- Ravens vs. Texans. Joe Flacco has been disappointing but as long as he can hand the ball off to Ray Rice or dump it off to him this ought to be a blowout. Schaub is hurting and Andre Johnson is out, and the Ravens defense is coming off a bye week to rest up. My pick: Ravens.

-Buccaneers vs. Saints. Like my Giants and Titans, the Bucs have looked good in 3 games and very disappointing in the other two. We all know what the Saints have on offense, so can Josh Freeman bounce back? Not likely without LeGarrette Blount. My pick: Saints.

- Bengals vs. Colts. Who needs Carson Palmer? Bungles look like they are for real this year, even with rookie starting quarterback and wide receiver. That receiver A.J. Green is a stud. The defense is one of the league’s best, and with the crappy Colts in town that shouldn’t change. My pick: Bengals

- Packers vs. Rams: Green Bay is 15 point favorites in this game but that still seems too low. The Rams have no one to stop Jennings, Finley or Nelson and no one on offense to keep up. This has the looks of a major blowout. My pick: Packers.

- Steelers vs. Jags. Big Ben hobbled into last week’s game and threw 5 touchdowns. The Jags are terrible. This game may be close but there is no way the Jags win. My pick: Steelers.

- Raiders vs. Browns. First home game for Oakland since the passing of Al Davis, for what that is worth. The Raiders are the better team. My pick: Raiders.

- Bears vs. Vikings: Bears have been the most generous defense against the run (5.7 yards per carry) and the Vikings finally discovered that if they give All Day Adrian Peterson the ball they can win. The Bears defense certainly has the capability of creating big turnovers and scoring, and with Donovan McNabb that is definitely a possibility, but I like Jared Allen to increase his league-leading sacks total against a very susceptible Bears o-line and create havoc for Jake Cutler. My pick: Vikings.

- Jets vs. Dolphins: Like I said earlier, the Jets are self-destructing amid a 3-game losing streak, and they Dolphins are coming off a bye. But with Marshall potentially sabotaging the Dolphins and Matt Moore making his first start of the year, it’s too hard to pick against Gang Green. My pick: Jets.

Week 5 Power Report

Week 5 is Statement Sunday, and it was a rough week for "surprise" 3-1 teams that could have made a statement. Bucs get blown out, Giants give a game away at home, Texans lost to the Raiders, and Titans get pounded by an injured Steelers team.

No Stats o' the Week. Let me know if you have one.

There were a lot of crazy awesome catches though. Here's a video.
Here's a great article that should make you laugh out loud.

Power Report

1. Packers. Gave up two long drives to start the game and then shut down the Falcons the rest of the game.
2. Patriots. Nothing like a game against the Jets to get the defense and ground game back on track.
3. Saints. Offense is firing on all cylinders.
4. Lions. Can’t wait for Thanksgiving, when the Lions meet the Packers. A lot can happen before then. Lions offense and defense is Top 10.
5. Ravens
6. 49ers. Another dominating performance by the defense. Alex Smith’s QB rating is 104.
7. Chargers. 4-1, racking up lots of unimpressive wins. Too many turnovers.
8. Raiders. McFadden held to 3.2 ypc, Jason Campbell completed less than 50% of his passes, offense outgained by 200, and they still come up with the emotional win to honor Al Davis.
9. Bills. Fred Jackson has become an MVP candidate.
10. Texans. Coach Kubiak, about the season-ending injury to star player Mario Williams: “I feel so bad for Mario, because he’s such a heck of a player.” He also feels so bad because without Big Mario, Kubiak will lose his job.
11. Steelers. Just when I leave them for dead, Big Ben throws 5 touchdowns and the Steelers blow out the Titans.
12. Cowboys
13. Giants. GMen take the first major upset of the season. Is Big Blue the worst good team in the NFL or the best bad team?
14. Redskins. Good week for them as they gain a game on the Giants and Eagles without playing.
15. Titans. Major letdown in a statement game. A week off to think about it, then a big division showdown against the Texans.
16. Bears. Matt Forte had another big day, but Jay Cutler has nobody to throw to. This is the least talented group of receivers in the NFL.
17. Buccaneers. It’s a long flight back from San Francisco. And after giving up 48 points to Alex Smith and the 49ers, have fun with Drew Brees next week.
18. Jets. 7 of 11 offensive possessions were 3 and out (3 plays and punt), and this was against the #32 ranked defense. Allowed BenJarvus Green-Ellis a career high in rushing. A Rex Ryan defense allowed a 300 yard passer and 100 yard runner in a game for first time since 1995. Other than a terrible offense and average defense…?
19. Falcons. After the first two drives of the game the Falcons mustered 111 yards the rest of the game, getting outscored 25-0 at home.
20. Seahawks. Heading into their bye the ‘Hawks are a missed long field goal away from a 3-game winning streak.
21. Eagles. The offensive line, defense, and coaching blunders have buried them.
22. Bengals. Already at more wins than anyone could have guessed.
23. Chiefs. Nice comeback win against a Colts team that was supposed to have a decent defense. Matt Cassell hads 7 TD/1 INT in the last 3 games.
24. Browns
25. Vikings. McNabb 21 passes : Adrian Peterson 29 carries = a Vikings win.
26. Panthers. New game, same story: Cam looks good and the Panthers lose their 4th game by 7 or less.
27. Broncos. With Orton the Broncos are completely lifeless. Tim Tebow adds a little spark, at least. Kyle Orton is a better quarterback but Tim Tebow is a playmaker, the only one on the Broncos, and he gives them the best chance to win.
28. Cardinals. Since their Opening Day win over the Panthers they have lost 4 straight to the Redskins, Seahawks, Giants, and Vikings, and Kevin Kolb looks terrible.
29. Dolphins
30. Jaguars. Their last play
31. Rams. Bring on the Packers.
32. Colts. When you have a 17 point lead against a bad team, you have to average better than 2.9 yards a carry.

Week 5 Preview

I missed last week and this is coming out late again, but here goes:

Last week the Chiefs left the ranks of the winless. The Vikings and Colts are in position now as the 0-4 Dolphins and Rams get a week off. The Lions and Packers are the only remaining teams without a loss and both face good tests against Chicago and in Atlanta.

As we are now 1/4 of the way through the season, here are my updated predictions for the playoffs.
NFC:
Packers, Saints, Cowboys, 49ers, Lions, Buccaneers
AFC:
Patriots, Ravens, Chargers, Texans, Titans, Raiders

Key Matchups
1. Patriots vs. Jets: so yeah, this is a big rivalry. If the Jets lose and go to 2-3 it will be hard to make the playoffs.
2. Falcons vs. Packers: Rematch of the playoff game last year where the top seed 13-3 Falcons got blown out at home.
3. Bills vs. Eagles: Philly is desperate at 1-3, Bills are trying to prove they are for real at 3-1.
4. Lions vs. Bears (Monday Night Football): looks to be a great game.
5. 49ers vs. Buccaneers. Bucs may be a better team but they are traveling 3000 miles west in this matchup of two 3-1 teams.

Upset Alert
Broncos over Chargers
Raiders over Texans

Stone Cold Picks (last time 2-2, to date 6-6)
- Titans over Steelers. Steelers are really banged up and old and the Titans look pretty sharp. I like this matchup for the Titans to show that they are a contender in the AFC.
- Patriots over Jets. Time for Gang Green to panic.
- Bengals over Jaguars. Strange pick, but I really don't like the Jaguars.
- Colts over Chiefs. Indy finally gets their first win of the season.

The Rest of the Games (last week 13-3, to date 36-15)
- Eagles over Bills
- Bucs over 49ers
- Giants over Seahawks (Eliminator lock)
- Vikings over Cardinals
- Saints over Packers
- Texans over Raiders
- Chargers over Broncos
- Packers over Falcons
- Lions over Bears

your overdue rant

As a die-hard Yankees fan, this was quite the roller coaster year. Considering how strange it was for them to be under the radar because of all the Red Sox hype, they did well winning 97 games and the AL East. Nova and Robertson brought great excitement and bright futures. Granderson and Cano led the way with the bat. Rivera did what he does best.

Then there was A-Rod, too gimpy to do anything, incapable of playing more than five days a week. Mark Teixeira, who didn't have one month where he hit at least .270. Russell Martin is a favorite of the rotation, but his hitting declined for the 5th straight season. Swisher, Gardner, and Jeter were hot and cold. Rafael Soriano did his best Carl Pavano impression, missing half the season with a phantom injury. Phil Hughes and A.J. Burnett were dreadful. Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon had nice starts but the final results were sub-par.

And when it mattered most, August/September/October, Sabathia couldn't get a win. The bullpen turned Evan Longoria, Dan Johnson, and Jacoby Ellsbury into legendary heroes. Swisher, A-Rod, and Teixeira couldn't get a hit, floundering in the most crucial moments.

The biggest confirmation I gained from this season was how special those 1998 New York Yankees were, the greatest TEAM of all time. They weren't stacked with perennial All-Stars, big-name celebrities snatched off the free agent market after a bidding war. The team was led by home-grown talent, smaller-named free agent heroes, clutch and impact players on the bench, intelligent and solid winners in the rotation, and a great bullpen.

- Bernie Williams, Tino Martinez, Jeter, Posada, Scott Brosius, Chuck Knaublach, Chad Curtis, Darryl Strawberry, Shane Spencer, Tim Raines, Homer Bush, and Chili Davis
- David Cone, Andy Pettitte, David Wells, Orlando Hernandez, Ramiro Mendoza
- Mariano Rivera, Graeme Lloyd, Jeff Nelson, Mike Stanton

Two years later (2000) the Yankees had practically the same team on the field (with additions of Roger Clemens, David Justice, and Alfonso Soriano; thank you, I'll take them all). Is it any wonder this team won 3 straight World Series, 4 out of 5, and made it to Game 7 in the 6th year?

This year the team was stuck with ARod (six more years!), Burnett (two more years!), Tex and Swisher (AWOL in the postseason, every postseason), Jeter (great player, but he's 37 and the last time he had a big hit was about 8 years ago), and a patchwork pitching staff full of hopefuls (AJ Burnett: two more years!).

I root for the Yankees to win the World Series but am I surprised that they lost a first round matchup? No. This is not a great team and they have few heroes left.

What I vote for moving forward:
- If C.C. Sabathia opts out and wants a raise, don't make another Alex-Rodriguez'-size mistake.
- Go after C.J. Wilson instead.
- Give Eduardo Nunez an opportunity to play everyday.
- If Hughes can't keep his velocity up, move him to the bullpen and make room for the young Yankees' in the minors.
- Keep Jesus Montero in the lineup.
- Give Brett Gardner a chance to be the best leadoff hitter in the league.

I'm sick of all the fuel the front office keeps giving Yankee haters. ARod and his bad contract are here forever. Jeter is overpaid and replaceable. Burnett is a liability. Rafael Soriano is a a 7th inning guy getting paid $12M. C.C. Sabathia is a workhorse, but he's a fat workhorse with a ton of mileage on his arm and will likely ask for more than his largest contract ever for a pitcher. The Yankees' bench is nonexistent. Rotation depth is very shallow. A high payroll guarantees that they will be competitive but it does NOT guarantee success once you get to the postseason.

Where are the heroes? Who is the replacement for Scott Brosius, Paul O'Neill, Bernie Williams, and Tino Martinez? Robinson Cano can't do it all himself. They had some heroes in Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui but they gave them away. Who in the rotation has the heart of David Cone, El Duque, or Pettitte?

I'm a die-hard Yankees fan, but the management has forgotten how they became a dynasty. And it's been so long you can't blame them.

** The one consolation from the end of the season is that the Yankees were far from having the greatest meltdown. Those honors go to:
1. Red Sox: best team for the middle four months, dreadful when it mattered most.
2. Phillies: take that Cliff Lee. (He would look much better in pinstripes).
3. Braves: owned the greatest collapse in baseball history for about 15 minutes.
4. Giants: had a 4 game lead on July 28 and made a deal acquiring the best trade-deadline hitter Carlos Beltran, only to finish 8 games behind the Dbacks.

(By the way, if C.C. doesn't opt out and keeps his contract, I'll love him for the next four years.)

Week 4 Power Report

The craziest thing I've seen this season is how many huge leads have been squandered; or in other words, how many huge deficits have been overcome. This week we saw the Eagles let a 23-3 lead in the fourth quarter at home get away against Alex Smith and the 49ers. The Cowboys lost a home game they had a 27-3 lead in the second half to the Lions, a week after the Lions came back from 20-0 in Minnesota. After the Bills had two huge comeback wins against the Raiders and Patriots they yielded a 2-touchdown halftime lead.

The way teams refuse to hand the ball off and stay with the air game when they have a lead is creating opportunity for these colossal collapses. Why is Tony Romo throwing the ball on first down in the 2nd half with a 24 point lead? How do the Vikings lose three big second half leads when they have All Day Adrian Peterson on the field? Coaches and quarterbacks need to back off and go with what they've been trained to do for their entire careers, and that is keeping the ball on the ground, despite the disproportional passing statistics we've seen this year.

Stats o’ the Week

5 – Returns for touchdowns in the Jets/Ravens game (defensive and special teams)
19 – Plays in the Texans’ opening drive against the Steelers.
61 – Pass attempts by Colt McCoy this week
205 – Rushing yards by Matt Forte

Power Rankings

There are a ton of bad teams this year. Only four are winless, but the Jaguars, Chiefs, Seahawks, Broncos, and Panthers are dreadful, too. The group at the top is also getting smaller each week. And the group of average or disappointing teams is growing.

Top 6
1. Packers. Aaron Rodgers is the MVP of the first quarter of the season.
2. Patriots. The defense yields a little less than 50% success rate on 3rd downs, but at least the offense completes over half their third downs. Wes Welker is on pace for 2400 yards receiving. Tom Brady had 500+ passing yards in Week 1, 400+ in Week 2, 300+ in Week 3, and 200+ this week. Can the Jets continue the trend and limit him to under 200? I wouldn’t count on it.
3. Saints.
4. Lions. Calvin Johnson has two touchdowns in all 4 games this season.
5. Ravens. Mark Sanchez is having nightmares of black jerseys in his face.
6. Texans. Their best player Andre Johnson is hurt but at least it comes at a good time now that Arian Foster looks like he is healthy and back on track.

Muddy Middle
7. Bears. Those rushing yards by Matt Forte come a week after a 2 yard total.
8. Bucs. Looks like Freeman and Blount are back on track as the Bucs have won 3 in a row. Hard to understand how the defense gave up so many huge passing plays to Curtis Paynter.
9. Giants. The GMen avoid an embarrassing loss as Eli takes over the game in the 4th quarter. Eli is 3rd in quarterback rating, behind only Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady.
10. Chargers. Alone in first place and a matchup in Denver next week.
11. Raiders. 508 yards of offense, but if Jason Campbell is throwing more than Tom Brady then they are not pounding the ground game enough and will lose.
12. Titans. Chris Johnson finally breaks 100 yards. Nice opportunity next week to finally beat a banged-up Steelers team.
13. Cowboys. How exactly do the Dallas Cowboys blow a 24 point second half lead at home? Only Tony Romo could find a way.
14. Jets. Joe McKnight has returned a blocked punt and a kickoff for touchdowns this season.
15. 49ers. Only division leader with a two-game cushion. Next two opponents are 7-1.
16. Steelers.
17. Eagles. Despite the collapse, Vick had nearly 500 yards of total offense.
18. Bills. Sorry, but I told you I’d drop them here if they lose to the Bengals.
19. Redskins.
20. Falcons. Sheesh, they let a 20 point second half lead to the lowly Seahawks squander enough that a last minute long field goal could have won the game.
21. Bengals. Bengals are the surprising top-ranked defense in yardage.
22. Cardinals.
23. Browns. Colt McCoy’s 350 passing yards may be the most overrated stat in history. He made 61 passes and the Browns only scored 13 points.

Terrible Teams
24. Broncos. Tebow time? Why not?
25. Panthers
26. Seahawks
27. Chiefs
28. Vikings. Pretty sad that the first game where they never really had a lead they could blow was to the Chiefs.
29. Dolphins
30. Rams. Getting killed by a brutal opening schedule.
31. Colts. At least they are competitive.
32. Jaguars. For those of you who understand ESPN’s new stat Total Quarterback Rating, the Jags have a combined total of 33.1 in the last 3 games. The Titans’ Matt Hasselback has topped 90 twice in that span.

What was he thinking?

The Yankees have the division wrapped up as well as the best record in the American League. This is their opportunity and privilege to rest up and coast a little.

However, on Sunday night Joe Torre made one of the dumbest managerial moves I have ever seen (or rather, heard).

Here's the situation:
- Yankees vs. Red Sox.
- Second game of a doubleheader.
- Red Sox have a half-game lead for the Wild Card.
- Tie game, bottom of the 9th inning, bases loaded, two outs.
- Rivera pitched the top of the 9th.
- Red Sox bring in their closer Jonathan Papelbon.
- Teixeira and Posada were removed for pinch runners that inning.
- Austin Romine, a rookie catcher recently called up from the minor leagues is due up.
- Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Russell Martin, and Andruw Jones have yet to play and are available on the bench.

The only question was who would pinch hit.

Here's what happened:
- No pinch hitter was used.
- Romine struck out.
- The game lasted five more innings.
- Joe Girardi got ejected in the 13th inning.
- Red Sox won.

There is a reason you are paying Alex Rodriguez $32 million and it is not to sit on the bench in the 9th inning against the Red Sox. Derek Jeter is the captain and hitting about .350 since mid-July. Austin Romine had had 13 major league at-bats. He wasn't going to be on the playoff roster. He is a fill in because of the roster expansion.

In the words of the great Herm Edwards: "You play to win the game!"

This is Red Sox vs. Yankees! This was an opportunity to bury Boston. You have to give your team the best chance to win, and that was not with Romine getting the most important at-bat of the game.

They had already played 18 innings that day and everybody wanted to go home. If the Yankees get a hit (or walk) the game is over. Worst case scenerio: if A-Rod or Jeter made an out and ended the inning, Girardi could bring in Russell Martin to catch. Or have Jesus Montero (who was already in the game) catch. Instead, Romine swung on a bad pitch and they had to play 14 innings. It made no sense, especially since Girardi took the game serious enough to argue a play at second and get tossed a little later.

I know Joe wanted to rest his aging stars after playing earlier in the day but come on, it's one at-bat! Give your team a chance to win! This is the Yankees!

Week 3 Power Report

After Week 3 all of the following teams are either leading their division or share a lead (remember, division winners are playoff teams):
Redskins, Lions, Buccaneers, 49ers, Bills, Browns, Texans, and Raiders. That’s every division. Some of those won’t last but some will. And that makes for a pretty exciting season.

We haven’t really had any huge upsets yet this year. The closest thing was the Titans beating the Ravens. The Bills blew out the Chiefs but we then realized that the Chiefs are probably the worst team.

Remember my post last week about the Trap Game? As predicted, we had several in Week 3. The Patriots were up by 3 touchdowns but let the Bills stay in the game. Whatever the reason, New England let one get away.

Jets were up 17-7 in Oakland but then got run over.

The Lions were also being Trapped, down 20-0 to the winless Minnesota Vikings. Fortunately for them, they woke up in the second half and got the win in overtime.

Things we have learned:
a. One thing that is painfully obvious is great defenses are few and far in between. The only teams that can make a statement about their defense are the Ravens and 49ers.
b. Because of a., the key to success is having a great quarterback, a strong offensive line, a good pass rusher, and a knack for creating turnovers.
c. Passing yards are way out of proportion this year. The Raiders are the only exception.

Stats o’ the Week:
0 – First half first downs for the Chiefs this week
0 – Field goals this season for the Giants
4 – interceptions thrown by Tom Brady (equals all of last season)
11 – straight wins for the Detroit Lions, including the preseason
13 – rushing yards for the Chicago Bears
98 – rushing yards on the season for Chris Johnson (3 games)

Power Report

As things are beginning to settle, there are some big movers this week, including the Bills (+11), Buccaneers (+5), Giants (+5), Raiders (+5), Eagles (-10), Falcons (-7), Browns (+6), and Dolphins (-7).

There is a pretty big gap between the first two groups of teams. Teams in the middle group all have a pretty glaring weakness, like the offensive line of the Bears, Steelers, Eagles, and Jets. There are 10 teams that are all pretty terrible.

Top 7
1. Packers. The offense was really good without Jermichael Finley. With him they are scary. The defense is opportunistic. This is clearly the best team in the NFL.
2. Patriots. I would put my money on Tom Brady not throwing four interceptions again and blowing a 3 touchdown lead.
3. Saints. 3 straight shootouts against three good teams.
4. Lions. Calvin Johnson is quickly becoming the best receiver in football.
5. Ravens. Who’s Torrey Smith? And how did he catch 3 touchdowns in the first quarter?
6. Texans. Good game in a tough environment. Texans gave up 2 leads in the fourth quarter.
7. Bills. Ryan Fitzpatrick is the new comeback kid, as the Bills have rallied in back-to-back games down 21-3 and 21-0. (If they get Trapped next week they are going back to #18.)

Average
8. Chargers. Nearly blew it against the Chiefs. Offense is near the top in most categories, defense is near the top in most categories, yet they have struggled in all three games. Those 7 Philip Rivers turnovers may be a reason. The good news is it’s September and they haven’t buried themselves like previous years.
9. Bucs. Suddenly that Week 1 loss to the Lions doesn’t look quite so bad now.
10. Giants. For the first time in like 3 seasons the Giants made a lot of big plays, on offense and defense, and finally got the Eagle off their back. Huge win for a very injury-depleted team. Jason Pierre-Paul is the best pass rusher no one outside of the northeast knows about.
11. Bears. Down by 10 with two minutes left, the Bears had “trick play” punt return that went for a touchdown. The refs called a holding penalty on a Bears player that wasn’t even on the field. Replays showed no real holding violation. Chicago had a shot to win the game and the referees took it away on a bogus call.
12. Raiders. Hue Jackson didn’t get the memo that this is a passing league.
13. Steelers. Offensive line is historically bad. Big Ben better have a will written. The Steelers nearly blew it against the hapless Colts on national television.
14. Cowboys. 6 field goals, zero touchdowns. What a win.
15. Jets. For a team that roars about their defense and ground game, their defense has been lit up twice and their ground game is awful. Because of that, Mark Sanchez is getting plenty of opportunities to air it out.
16. Titans. Matt Hasselback has turned this team into a passing team. Which is good, because Chris Johnson is not getting it done on the ground. And how much was that contract he held out to get? The injury bug bit the Titans as their blossoming star receiver Kenny Britt is out for the year.
17. Eagles. Michael Vick should not have been in this game. The Eagles offensive line is so bad that something bad was going to happen. Vick gets hit hard all the time, and it’s not because he’s running around with the ball. Looks like it might be time for Vince Young to get a chance next week as Mike Kafka was awful in relief.
18. Falcons. Outplayed for the third straight game. On the road to Seattle next (long trip) and then they play the Packers.
19. Redskins. Bad Rex showed up Monday night. It’s not often that your defense keeps the opponent out of the endzone and you still lose.
20. 49ers. If the 49ers won a game that nobody watched, does it count?
21. Cardinals. Squandered an opportunity to win a division game against a weak opponent.
22. Browns. Wow, do they have an easy schedule. All 3 of their games have been against the worst teams in the league, and they still have the Seahawks, 49ers, Rams, Jags, and Bengals left.

Bottom 10
23. Vikings. No lead is safe for the Vikings. Minnesota has had a double-digit lead in all 3 games and found a way to lose all of them. How? They’ve been outscored 64-6 in the second half.
24. Jaguars. I’m still mad they beat the Titans in Week 1. The one bright spot: Maurice Jones-Drew is still running well.
25. Rams. At halftime they had already given up over 400 yards to the Ravens. Rams are 0-3, look terrible, and will probably start 0-7, but the bright side is that they have 8 winnable games after that and may be playing a meaningful game on New Years Day in Week 17.
26. Dolphins. Tony Sparano is in trouble. Dolphins are a mess.
27. Broncos. This team has about the least amount of talent as anybody in the NFL. Tim Tebow should be a receiver or running back.
28. Panthers. Wasn’t pretty, but Cam and the Panthers will take win #1.
29. Seahawks. Not much to say.
30. Bengals. Not much to say that you don’t already know.
31. Colts. Dear Sunday Night Football crew: Peyton Manning isn’t playing. It’s time to talk about the actual product on the field. There were over 20 Manning references throughout the game.
32. Chiefs. Didn’t have a first down in the first half and still had a chance to win in the end.

Week 3 Preview

This is probably the first year in a long time where there are no surprisingly disappointing and desperate 0-2 teams. We also haven’t had a top team lose to a bad team. There are a lot of great games to pay attention to this week.

Key Matchups:
1. Eagles vs. Giants, early game on FOX: This is the first meeting since that heartbreaking game last year when the Giants blew the big league and punter Matt Dodge kicked it right to DeSean Jackson on the last play. Had he kicked it out of bounds instead then the Giants would have been in the playoffs and the Eagles would have had an early vacation. The Giants are banged up but might be getting some guys back. Michael Vick is coming off a concussion but it’s looking likely that he he’ll play. This is the toughest game of the week to pick a winner.
2. Saints vs. Texans, early game on CBS: This looks like potentially the most entertaining game of the weekend. 2-0 Texans looking to make a statement at one of the league’s toughest road spots.
3. Bears vs. Packers, 4pm game on FOX: a rematch of the NFC Championship game where Cutler was knocked out of the game and the Packers pulled away.
4. Bills vs. Patriots early game on CBS (for some reason this matchup of local teams is being replaced on TV with bull riding and paid programming. I hope that gets fixed). A divisional game of two 2-0 teams.
5. Cowboys vs. Redskins, Monday Night Football: One of the league’s biggest and longest rivalries. The Cowboys are really banged up while the Redskins are pretty healthy.

Upset Alert:
Raiders over Jets
Bears over Packers

Stone Cold Picks:
(last week 3-1, to date 4-4)
- Panthers over Jaguars. Cam Newton looking for his first win against another rookie quarterback making his first NFL start.
- Raiders over Jets. Raiders look like a solid team that can run the ball very well. For the Jets, Mark Sanchez is sore, their Pro Bowl center is out, and they are going cross country after a blowout win (trap game).
- Redskins over Cowboys: If Romo plays he will probably not be very effective. The Cowboys starting running back and both starting receivers are hurt. The Redskins have a pretty good passing attack right now with Rex Grossman and the Cowboys secondary is weak.
- Dolphins over Browns: Chad Henne and Miami get their first win of the year on the road, and I expect a blowout.

The Rest of the Games:
(last week 9-3, to date 16-8)
- 49ers over Bengals
- Lions over Vikings
- Titans over Broncos
- Eagles over Giants
- Saints over Texans
- Patriots over Bills
- Ravens over Rams
- Chargers over Chiefs (Eliminator Lock)
- Bears over Packers
- Cardinals over Seahawks
- Buccaneers over Falcons
- Steelers over Colts

My Philosophy on Power Rankings

Most sports sites and writers have Power Rankings. Why, because humans love lists and we love to analyze and attach value to sport teams. As a sports writer, I do my Power Report as a pride thing, to show how much I know about sports and evaluate my own predictions and evaluations.

Baseball and basketball have such long seasons that it is pretty easy to tell where a team is after 60 games. The standings tell the story pretty well. There are strength of schedule differences, but pretty much you are what your record shows.

Ranking football teams brings many more challenges. The biggest challenge is that there are 32 teams and everybody only plays 16 games, including 6 against the teams in their division. This often creates some odd scenerios, like the Falcons winning 13, Bears winning 11 and the Chiefs winning 10 last year (how good were they?). It's common for mediocre teams to get lucky with a soft schedule and have a win total greater than their team lineup should grant.

Evaluating the beginning of the season is tough because 2 games in the NFL season equals 20 in baseball.

The third problem is also caused by an unbalanced schedule. Take the Giants and Falcons for example. I (and most NFL fans outside of New York) believe that the Falcons are a much stronger team than my GMen. The first half of the Giants schedule has @ Redskins, Rams, @ Cardinals, Seahawks, Bills, Dolphins. It is not hard to believe that they could start 6-1 (or 5-2), which would put their record among the best in the NFL, despite only playing one quality team (Eagles). The Falcons begin the season by playing @ Bears, Eagles, @ Bucs, Packers, @ Lions and Saints. That is 6 tough games before Week 8. But in the second half of the season the Giants have the toughest schedule in the NFL and the Falcons’ lightens up a little. So will we be forced to put the Giants ahead of the Falcons because their record is better through 7 games? By Week 15 the standings will be a good indicator of where teams are but before then there could be some flukes or misleading teams (like the 2-0 Bills and the 2009 Broncos that started 6-0). So before then, we have to do our best to analyze the sleeping giants that will break out and disregard the mediocre teams that take advantage of a soft schedule early.

My basic criteria for determining my Power Report rankings are thus:
1) The Eye Test: what do my eyes tell me?
2) Obviously wins and losses are important in evaluating the strength of each team
3) If two teams matched up on a neutral field, who do I believe is likely to win the majority of the time? (Team A could beat Team B 9 out of 10 times in hypothetical games, but if that #10 happens first, it doesn’t necessarily mean that Team B is better. Look at the Titans and Ravens).
4) Where do I expect this team to be at the end of the season? What teams have the most staying power (opposed to the baseball Pirates that started hot but then fell apart, or the afore-mentioned 2009 Broncos)?
5) Along with #4, how good are they? If they are a 12-13 win caliber team, that means they are expected to lose 3-4 games. It doesn’t matter if those happen in Week 1, 3, or 15. The Saints played the Packers (reigning champs and favored to win this year) their first game. Am I going to rank them below the Redskins, Bills, Jets, and Lions because they lost on the road to the best team in the NFL, and those other teams played some vanilla opponents? It’s only been 2 games!
6) Upsets happen. If a team gets bit twice, it’s a sign.

I believe that power rankings should be pretty consistent week to week. Remember in the beginning of this silly article where I said that I like to do power rankings to evaluate my own evaluating skills? If Team X begins the season at #29, and after each game moves to #15, #3, #19, #5, then what do I know? Nothing, I’m just bouncing around overreacting to every game, floating on every wind of doctrine. But if the majority of my rankings stay pretty close from Week 1 through Week 17 then it shows my initial evaluations were pretty good! I stuck with my guns and didn’t cave in after a couple tough losses and I wasn’t fooled by a flukey start. (Of course, if a favorite team of mine begins 3-6 I’m not going to blindly leave them higher than they belong. And injuries can force significant adjustments.)

Yes, that is subjective. No, it's not an exact science. And that’s the fun in doing power rankings. Coming up with some magic formula is missing the trees for the forest.

That being said, in my Power Report you may notice a few points:
1) I’m not buying the Jets or Bills despite their 2-0 start.
2) I’m not too down on the Saints, Ravens, Chargers or Eagles just because they lost a game.
3) I am buying the Lions and Texans. Like I said, they pass the Eye Test. They look good. The Texans could lose to the Saints but I’m not worried overall.
4) We don’t quite know enough about the Falcons, Bucs, Raiders, Redskins, Dolphins or Cardinals to really feel good about their position in the rankings.
5) Top 10 teams that I am least confident about: Bears and Eagles and Steelers. It goes without saying that if Big Ben misses several games the Steelers will be average, if Cutler goes down for a while the Bears are below-average, and should Vick miss a few games the Eagles may drop. The offensive lines for each are poor.

I’m a little bullish on the Lions. The Lions might not be the #6 best team, but if they end the year in the top 12 I’ll feel good about my evaluation.

I have had nothing nice to say about the Bills to this point so I will now. They look much better than I anticipated. They have more dimensions in their offense, and Ryan Fitzpatrick is a quality player (I liked him last year, too). There just hasn't been enough evidence to show that they will continue and win 7-8 games.

And by the way, I'm not afraid to admit that I was wrong!

My Favorite Yankee

On Monday, Mariano Rivera recorded career save #602, giving him the most in baseball history. He is without question the best relief pitcher in baseball history. His consistency is incredible.

I'm currently reading Buster Olney's book The Last Night of the Yankee Dynasty and here are a couple descriptive passages from there about Mo.

"Rivera, the Yankees' closer, thought players should act properly, as well; he despised pitchers who were disrespectful to opponents--glaring insolently at hitters and stomping and swaggering around the mound like Neanderthals, pumping a fist to celebrate the smallest successes. You should act as though you've won before, Rivera believed; you should act as though you expect to win again. Some pitchers grew mustaches and beards and groomed them in arcane ways to make themselves look threatening, but this made Rivera more certain they were actually very much afraid...

"There was inflexible structure to everything Rivera did. Some of the other Yankees adhered only grudgingly to the team's policy against long hair and beards, and a few holdouts always took the field with day-old facial growth. But Rivera shaved before every game and had his thinning hair cut close to his scalp, like stitches on a baseball. He wore his uniform precisely to code, with the cuffs of his uniform pants raised to the proper height above his heels, and he followed the same disciplined regimen before, during, and after games. When Rivera emerged from the Yankees' bullpen to pitch, he held his glove in his right hand and jogged steadily to the mound, running on the balls of his feet, his head always tilted downward--the coolest entrance of any closer, teammate Roger Clemens thought, because it was so understated. Rivera never looked angry or arrogant or intense. He had the demeanor of a customs agent, serious and polite. All eyes were on him whenever he stepped out of the bullpen."

I'm not going to spend time copying his stats here, but they are remarkable. Even Yankees' haters have to admire him. He is dignified, humble, calm and professional, and one of the best human beings in baseball. Yankees' games have become 8 inning affairs for the last 15 years for opposing players and fans, but my favorite part of any ballgame is the 9th inning with Mariano Rivera on the mound. I dread the day when #42 will no longer come out of the bullpen.

Week 2 Power Report

Oh no! The Ravens are terrible, Bills and Lions are headed to the Super Bowl, and Cam Newton is bound for the Hall of Fame.

Overreactions are too easy to fall into after only 1 or 2 games. Remember last week, when the Steelers and Falcons were embarrassed, Tony Romo couldn’t win a game, the Chargers yielded only 28 passing yards, and the Chiefs and Colts were awful? Oh yeah, those last two are still true.
There are things we continue to learn, but we don’t know everything, and we are certain to be surprised next week. But here I go.

Yes, the Bills are the big surprise team at 2-0. But just remember this, we are a 4th down catch in the endzone with 15 seconds or a jump ball hail mary (that was close enough to be reviewed for ten minutes) away from saying the same thing about Raiders instead. And Bills other win was against the Chiefs.

By the way, I believe in justice and forgiveness. Michael Vick committed a horrible crime and he went to jail for it. He lost millions (hundreds of millions) of dollars for it. He has paid his debt to humanity. From now on, days after he made his return to Atlanta as a starting quarterback, I don’t ever want to hear about what he did and that should not be attached to his persona. He’s a good person and an unbelievable athlete. The end.

Things we learned:
a. Colts, Chiefs, and Seahawks are bad, really bad.

Stats o’ the Week:
a. 0 – kick returns for touchdowns (compared with 8 in Week 1)
b. 1.8 - Jags’ Luke McCown’s quarterback rating
c. 5 – consecutive 2nd half drives by the Bills for touchdowns
d. 9 – turnovers for the Chiefs in two games
e. 11 – sacks on Jay Cutler in two games
f. 1126 – total yards for the Patriots’ offense

Power Report

Top 10
1. Patriots. Defense has given up a lot of yards but they make big stops when they need to. They also completely shut down the Chargers’ best receiver. Send this year’s MVP trophy to the engraver already for Tom Brady.
2. Packers. Aaron Rodgers had one of the prettier passes of the week. The offense is well balanced.
3. Saints. Drew Brees also threw a picture-perfect pass.
4. Chargers. Too many turnovers and missed opportunities.
5. Texans. Big test in the Big Easy this weekend. Will they rise up or get blown out?
6. Lions. What’s not to love? One of the most potent offenses and a defense that creates a lot of quarterback pressure.
7. Eagles. Kafka looks serviceable, but they need Vick (or Vince) if they want to win the East. The offensive line is terrible and the linebackers are struggling, too. They gave up way too many big runs up the middle. If Maclin doesn’t drop that ball on 4th down they may have won.
8. Ravens. Flacco looked inconsistent like usual, and the defense was surprisingly generous.
9. Bears. They’ve got to protect Jay Cutler. Despite their loss, they are a better team than I thought and they have a real shot to upset the Packers next week.
10. Steelers. I’ve always said Big Ben is a statue in the pocket, and he’s in big trouble behind that offensive line.

Good, But Still in the Middle of the Pack
11. Falcons. If Vick stays in the Falcons are 0-2. Matt Ryan led a good comeback but I still think he is overrated. This team is not as good as I thought they were, at least not yet.
12. Jets. Good game, but not much to learn from it.
13. Cowboys. More and more injuries to important players, including Romo and Miles Austin. Kudos to Tony Romo for playing through the pain and being a hero. It was surprising that he had to in a game against the lowly 49ers.
14. Bucs. Josh Freeman leads a big comeback once again and LeGarrett Blount finally made an appearance.
15. Giants. Not much to say.
16. Titans. Finally the offense looks explosive. Surprising that Chris Johnson has done next to nothing. Don’t expect that to continue.
17. Raiders. The defense could not stop the Bills. In a league where passing is king, Darren McFadden is still a monster running the ball.
18. Bills. Hard to believe that Raiders/Bills was the most dramatic game of the weekend. It is also surprising to see how many weapons that Ryan Fitzpatrick has found on that team. But hey, he’s from Harvard; smart guy.

Below Average
19. Dolphins. Not much to say.
20. Redskins. 2-0, but not much to say. Let’s see what they do against the Cowboys.
21. Cardinals. They do have the best (offensive) player in the division in Larry Fitzgerald so maybe that makes them the favorites.
22. Rams. They’ve looked pretty bad. Sam Bradford had the most unimpressive 331 passing yards ever. But at least they don’t play in the NFC East.
23. 49ers. Showed some life.

Bad Teams
24. Vikings. Not much to say.
25. Jaguars. I bet they regret cutting David Garrard in place of Luke McCown.
26. Broncos. Not much to say.
27. Bengals
28. Browns
29. Panthers. Cam Newton is on pace to throw for 6,800 yards and the Panthers are on pace for 0-16.

Suck for Luck Frontrunners
30. Colts. Embarrassed by a team that lost the Bengals. Is Curtis Paynter a better fill-in than Kerry Collins?
31. Seahawks. Compare those 1126 Patriots yards to the Seahawks’ 385.
32. Chiefs. In two games they have lost their best player on offense, their best player on defense, and been outscored 89-10.

Trap game

A trap game occurs after a team comes off an emotional or high-energy, exciting game and then matches up with a lesser opponent that is likely to be overlooked and is a prime upset candidate. Lots of trap games in the schedule for Week 2: Jets, Ravens, Packers, Texans, and Bills all had them. Jets responded well by killing the Jags. Texans controlled their game. Packers and Bills both found themselves in a big hole early but woke up and won their games. The Ravens, however, were completely overmatched against the Titans. This was the same Ravens team that dismantled the AFC Champions and big division rival Steelers with a 35-7 beat down where they went an incredible +7 in turnovers and Joe Flacco had a 3/0 TD/INT ratio. It was the most impressive win of the week. One week later against a (supposedly) weaker opponent Flacco went 1/2 and the defense could not stop Matt Hasselback and Kenny Britt. This was the same Titans team that lost their opening game to Jacksonville and Luke McCown. Jim Harbaugh had no explanation. Therefore, trap game.

Patriots, Lions, Jets, Packers, Falcons, and Cowboys have possible trap games in Week 3. Look for one or two upsets from those games.

NFL Week 2 Preview

In Week 1, four of the five lowest-rated teams all won, the Bengals, Bills, Redskins, and 49ers. It is no surprise that all my picks bombed last week. But that’s why we love the NFL, it is unpredictable. Anything can happen on any given Sunday. The Law of Averages gives me optimism.

Key Matchups:
1. Patriots vs. Chargers, 4pm on CBS: Besides all the obvious reasons this matchup is interesting because it features the #1 offense in Week 1 (Patriots – 622 yards) against the #1 defense (Chargers, 187 yards allowed). Neither team has much of a pass rush so the air game ought to be bountiful. Over/under on combined passing yards 650? I’ll take the over, like 700 yards. This should be like the Saints/Packers game.
2. Falcons vs. Eagles, Sunday night on NBC: Michael Vick’s first return to Atlanta as a starting quarterback since going to prison. Falcons are a little desperate after getting pounded in their opening game.
3. Saints vs. Bears, 1pm on FOX: Bears coming off a huge home win over the Falcons. Saints get a few extra days after their exciting narrow loss to the Packers.

Upset alert:
(0-2 last week)
Dolphins over Texans
Raiders over Bills

Stone Cold Picks:
(1-3 last week)
- Lions over Chiefs. Chiefs lost their star safety and the Stafford to Megatron connection is open.
- Colts over Browns. This year begins the downfall of the Colts, but even Kerry Collins won’t lose to the Browns.
- Saints over Bears. This game will be a blowout.
- Buccaneers over Vikings. Voting on who bounces back between McNabb and the Bucs, I’ll take the road team.


The Rest of the games:
- Patriots over Chargers
- Eagles over Falcons
- Dolphins over Texans
- Bills over Raiders
- Packers over Panthers
- Giants over Rams
- Steelers over Seahawks (Eliminator Lock)
- Ravens over Titans
- Cowboys over 49ers
- Jets over Jaguars
- Redskins over Cardinals
- Broncos over Bengals

Fact o’ the Day:
The NFC has had 10 different champions in the last 10 years. That trend bodes well for the Cowboys, Lions, or Falcons. (courtesy of ESPN’s Adam Schefter)

When will they learn?

Too many teams are being buried by bad contracts. Heading into the end of the season when teams will begin looking to sign and re-sign players and agents will be screaming about individual worth, here is the list of some of the contracts in circulation.

- Vernon Wells - $26M. Currently hitting .218 with 21 HR; previous years in this contract he hit .240 and .260, only topping 22 HR once (so why are they paying him?). By the way, he's no longer on the team that gave him that contract.

- Joe Mauer - $23M. Signed him to be the best-hitting catcher in baseball, but now it's uncertain if he'll even be the team catcher in a couple years. The Twins also built a new stadium and now he's hitting .287 with 3 home runs. And oh yeah, Twins are in last place.

- Jason Bay - $18M. Declining batting average three years in a row, only 18 home runs combined in the first two years of the contract. And oh yeah, Mets are terrible.

- Carl Crawford - $15M. Average salary during the contract is $20M. Currently hitting .249 with 11 HR.

- Jayson Werth - $10M. Average salary during contract is $18M. Currently hitting .232 with 19 HR.

- Alex Rios - $12M. Hitting .224, a couple years ago hit .247, hasn't hit more than 21 home runs in any of the four previous contract years. By the way, he's no longer with the team that gave the contract. Two more years.

- A.J. Burnett - $16M. Brian Cashman rewarded him for one good season, and now he's practically pitched himself out of the rotation. But the Yankees are paying him so much and are stuck for 2 more years there is nothing they can do about him.

- Alex Rodriguez - $32M. His body is falling apart and now it is doubtful that he'll reach Barry Bonds' home run mark. He has missed 58 games this year. And the Yankees are paying him for 6 more years.

- Todd Helton - $20M. Hitting over .300 but in Colorado who isn't?

Meanwhile, the Arizona Diamondbacks have nobody on their roster making over $6 million and they are runaway winners in the NL West.

Tampa Bay Rays are also not paying anyone $6 million and they are making a run at the wild card.

The New York Mets released Luis Castillo and Oliver Perez before the season, even though they still had to pay them $18M.

White Sox (5th), Cubs (6th), Mets (7th), Twins (9th) are in the top 10 highest payroll and none have been competitive. Giants are 8th, but 7 games behind the Dbacks.

ATTENTION: paying a player superstar money doesn't guarantee superstar results! And more often than not, it cripples the team for years to come!

What players actually performed to the level of their monster contracts? Alex Rodriguez's previous contract did include 2 MVPs, but he also didn't finish the contract with the team that signed him. Other than that, you tell me the player.

Attention, owners interested in Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Jose Reyes, and re-signing any of your big-name players to huge contracts: BUYER BEWARE!!

Week 1 Power Report

Everyone tends to overreact after one week of games. I will fight that urge, but there are several things learned after everyone’s first post-lockout real game.

Things we learned:
a. Offense is ahead of the defense. 1100+ yards of offense in the New England/Miami game, 76 points in the Packers/Saints game, and a rookie “athletic” quarterback threw for over 400 yards. Don’t overreact to it (wow, the Packers and Patriots are terrible!).
b. So much for the new rules taking away special teams plays. Green Bay’s Randall Cobb, Minnesota’s Percy Harvin, and San Francisco’s Ted Ginn Jr. each returned kickoffs from endzone to endzone (and there were plenty other long returns). There are lots more touchbacks, but players are taking a lot more risks instead of taking a knee.

Stats of the Week:
0: Wins for the NFC South (0-4)
7: Turnovers for the Pittsburgh Steelers
8: Kicks returns for touchdowns
14: Quarterbacks that topped 300 yards passing
39: Passing yards for Donovan McNabb
517: Passing yards for Tom Brady

Power Report
1. Packers. The Packers confirmed that there is no Super Bowl honeymoon for them. They are the real deal on offense and defense (despite giving up a lot of yards and points, their defense put a lot of pressure on Brees and held strong at the goal line), and even provided some fireworks on special teams, with rookie Randall Cobb returning a kickoff to paydirt.

2. Patriots. My cousin Adam stated that “Tom Brady is a product of the system.” If you watched this game or any other game in Brady’s career, you will know that the system is a product of Tom Brady. 622 yards of offense is the most I’ve ever seen for an NFL game. And who are they doing it with? Little Wes Welker, two 2nd year tight ends, Danny Woodhead, and Deion Branch. Like the Packers, the defense also gave up a ton, but they held strong at the goal line a couple times and a lot of the yards were allowed with a big lead, so I’m not worried.

3. Saints. They were one play at the goal line at 0:00 (plus 2-pt attempt) away from forcing overtime against the Packers so just because they lost I’m not going to drop them down to #13 or something crazy like that. And by the way, that a terrible playcall, handing the ball into the hands of a rookie instead of giving your best player (Brees) a chance to win it. I am a little nervous about the Saints’ offensive line; they were very overmatched throughout the game, and the defense and special teams defense played poorly, too (of course, Aaron Rodgers will make a lot of defenses look bad).

4. Ravens. Wow, was I wrong about that one. The Ravens looked like they’ve been preparing all year for this game against the Steelers and they destroyed them on both sides of the ball.
5. Texans. 34-0 at halftime is pretty big, and that was even without their star running back. The Texans have a great quarterback, receivers, backfield, tight end, and defense.
6. Eagles. Lots of playmakers on offense and defense. They still have some major issues at offensive line and linebackers.

7. Chargers. Chargers won the game but same ol’ same ol’. Defense held the Vikings under 200 yards, offense gained over 400 yards. Special teams was the bugaboo last year, and in one game they gave up an opening kickoff for a touchdown and their Pro Bowl kicker got hurt on the play. Their other problem was turnovers, and Rivers had two. Those will have to improve for them to stay this high.

8. Lions. This was one of the many surprises for me over the weekend. As long as Stafford stays healthy the Lions will stay in the Top 10. This was one defense that did come prepared.

9. Steelers. I thought the lockout was supposed to give a stable and strong organization like Pittsburgh an advantage. They were totally run over. The offensive line is bad, and while Big Ben is tough, he’s also a statue with the football and is going to be hit a ton. Look for them to bounce back in a big way at home against the Seahawks.

10. Bears. I don’t really think the Bears are this good but after the defense completely shut down the supposedly mighty Atlanta Falcons and Jay Cutler led the offense well, I can’t put them any lower. Five more sacks for Cutler is cause for concern.

11. Falcons. They are a good team but like I said, they have a tough schedule. That was a game they were supposed to win. They are likely to lose against Vick this weekend. But like the Packers last year, as long as they get into the playoffs they have a shot currently they are tied for the division lead.

12. Cowboys. Big D controlled this game until Romo made two inexcusably poor decisions that cost the game. Now we get to listen to Rex Ryan blabber for another week.

13. Jets. Any win is good, but let’s put this in perspective: Tony Romo threw all over this vaunted Jets defense, and it took two huge mistakes AND a blocked punt returned for a touchdown all in the 4th quarter to pull off this win at home. Jets are overrated. Of course, no one ever complained about being lucky.

14. Bucs. I didn’t see anything from this game, but I was pretty disappointed with the result.
15. Raiders. Broncos couldn’t stop Darren McFadden. Last time the Raiders started 1-0 they made it to the Super Bowl.

16. Giants. Giants are terrible and in big trouble. No overreaction here. The defense came in as the big question mark, but it was the Giants offense that stunk it up. Eli’s first two passes were dropped. A lineman missed a block that led to the deflected pick-6. The Giants couldn’t convert on a 4th and 1 on a completely terrible play call. As for defense and special teams: Rex Grossman threw for 300 yards. Lawrence Tynes (who should have been cut) got a field goal blocked. The least of my worries on this team is Eli Manning but the rest of the team played horrible. This was a game they had to win and they flopped.

17. Rams. Lots of injuries already spell out a long year.
18. Bills. Pretty amazing to see them this high considering they were my #30 a week ago. Good fortunes ought to continue with the Raiders making the cross-country trip next week.
19. Redskins. Rex Grossman shows that on a good day this offense shows life. And the defense came up big, too.
20. Jaguars. A league-high 47 carries helped them control the clock 2:1 over the Titans.
21. Vikings. Adrian Peterson is an amazing running back and ran over a bunch of Chargers, but if the passing game doesn’t show signs of life, he will wear out quick.
22. Dolphins. The defense was supposed to be strong. It will be hard to shake off Monday’s beat down with the Texans coming up. But hey, Chad Henne showed why I believed in him last year. He was throwing the ball all over the field and even ran one in, too.
23. Titans. When you have the best running back in football, why do you only attempt 13 rushes? It was a 2 point game!

24. Chiefs. Arrowhead Stadium was supposed to be one of the best home field advantages. Then the Chiefs lose by 34 at home to the Bills. And losing their best defensive player for the season does not bode well for the future. Coach Haley gets my favorite quote of the week: “We weren’t prepared for this game.” If you weren’t prepared for the first game of the season, what have you been doing for the last two months?

25. Colts. Talk about poor planning.
26. 49ers. Ted Ginn Jr. has one big highlight game per year, so what happens for the next 15 for the 49ers?
27. Cardinals. Did they really just let a rookie who completed less than half his passes in preseason throw for over 400 yards against them?
28. Broncos. You used a first-round pick on him, why not see what Tim Tebow can do? The Broncos won’t be any good this year anyway. All the injuries they sustained to key players will keep it that way.
29. Seahawks. On a positive note, they actually outgained the 49ers. On a negative note, their special teams wins the prize for worst unit in the league.
30. Bengals. Showing some signs of life with a big game by Cedric Benson. Is the defense that good or was the Browns defense that bad?
31. Panthers. Cam Newton looked really good all around in his first NFL start. That doesn’t mean wins will soon follow (especially with the Packers coming to town), but the future looks brighter than it did a week ago.
32. Browns. They knocked the Bengals’ starting quarterback out and they still couldn’t hold on? A loss in Indianapolis against the No-Manning-Colts next week would end their season.

NFL Season Predictions

My Predictions

The Usual Suspects
Because of division alignment there are a few teams that are pretty much guaranteed to be in the playoffs. Maybe not guaranteed, but I feel comfortable writing them in now. The Patriots are automatic. The defending champion Packers are unlikely to be overthrown in their division. Steelers are solid. While the Chargers missed the playoffs for the first time in 5 years, that probably helps make them a more solid lock this year since they get scheduling advantages. And unfortunately, a team from the NFC West is guaranteed a playoff spot. The Eagles, Saints and Falcons are among the league’s very best teams, but their division rivals are very competitive and a playoff berth will be hard-fought.

Dark Horses
Teams that could surprise many fans with a big season and find their way into the Playoff Picture are (in order of likelihood): the Buccaneers, Cowboys, Giants, Lions, Titans,, and Dolphins.

Likely Busts
Every year it seems five teams don't return to the playoffs the next year. Teams I am down on are the Colts, Bears, Jets, Chiefs, and any team that suffers a key injury/injuries. Other teams that could not be as competitive as some expect are the Vikings, Jaguars, and Lions (yes, I also listed them as a surprise candidate).

Season Standings
NFC EAST
*Eagles 11-5
Cowboys 10-6
Giants 9-7
Redskins 5-11

NFC NORTH
*Packers 12-4
Lions 9-7
Bears 7-9
Vikings 6-10

NFC SOUTH
*Saints 11-5
*Falcons 10-6
*Buccaneers 10-6
Panthers 3-13

NFC WEST
*Rams 8-8
49ers 7-9
Cardinals 7-9
Seahawks 6-10

AFC EAST
*Patriots 13-3
*Jets 9-7
Dolphins 5-11
Bills 4-12

AFC NORTH
*Steelers 13-3
*Ravens 11-5
Browns 6-10
Bengals 3-13

AFC SOUTH
*Texans 10-6
Titans 8-8
Colts 7-9
Jaguars 4-12

AFC WEST
*Chargers 12-4
Chiefs 8-8
Raiders 7-9
Broncos 6-10

NFC Championship
Packers over Falcons
AFC Championship
Patriots over Chargers

SUPER BOWL
Patriots over Packers

MVP: Tom Brady
Offensive Player of the Year: Chris Johnson
Defensive PotY: Troy Polamalu
Offensive Rookie otY: Greg Little
Defensive Rookie otY: Von Miller
Coach otY: Raheem Morris

I initially picked the Chargers as champs, giving me a win-win with them or the Patriots. but that is kinda cheap. I like the Patriots and I think they will be the best team.)

2011 PPP, part 4

The Season Kickoff game is on so I guess I better get this posted right away.

Two Minute Drill through the AFC NORTH

Steelers are a solid, deep, physical team with a good coach, quarterback, and defense. Of all the teams heading into a season after no real offseason, they are set up to succeed. Their most important player is Troy Polamalu.
Forecast = 13-3

Ravens are another solid team. The offense replaced Derrick Mason with Lee Evans, and while Todd Heap is gone they have a Cougar Dennis Pitta that ought to see some good action. They picked up fullback Vonta Leach from the Texans, who helped lead the way for Arian Foster to lead the league in rushing and touchdowns so this bodes well for Ray Rice. If Joe Flacco improves this could be a Super Bowl team.
Forecast = 11-5

Colt McCoy is showing signs that he can be a great NFL quarterback. Unfortunately, he plays in Cleveland and the Browns don't have many weapons for him. Their best player is Joshua Cribbs who returns kicks, so the new rules will negatively affect the Browns. Peyton Hillis has the best biceps in the NFL and showed that this team can even abuse the Patriots, so if he can stay on the field it bodes well for this team. Browns will be competitive.
Forecast = 6-10

Bengals will not be competitive. Rookie quarterback with a rookie wide receiver, 2nd year receiver and 2nd year tight end, and one of the worst starting running backs in the league. The defense is terrible. The only question will be whether they draft Andrew Luck or if Andrew Dalton shows them enough to pass on Luck.
Forecast = 3-13

Two Minute Drill through the AFC SOUTH

Texans coach Gary Kubiak is under the most pressure of anyone in the NFL this season. The team hired Wade Phillips as DC, Peyton Manning may miss the season, Titans got a new coach and QB, and the Jags cut their starting quarterback a few days ago. That being said, this is the most talented team in the division with the most playmakers on both sides of the ball. This team ought to win 11 games, but Kubiak is an underachiever.
Forecast = 10-6

A team with one of the best running backs, a good offensive line, a good veteran quarterback, and some quality receivers sounds like they ought to be pretty strong offense. That's the Titans. There is bust potential, however, as this is one of those teams going with a new coach and new quarterback and a star receiver and running back that missed the whole preseason, and the defense will probably not be very good. I see some surprise potential, especially since they get the vulnerable Jags in Week 1 and Peyton won't torment them.
Forecast = 8-8

Everyone familiar with the NFL will say that Peyton Manning is the most valuable player to his team in the league. Without him (and I expect him to either miss the whole season or at least half and be less effective in the other half), the oldColts just doesn't have enough talent. Manning makes Clark, Collie (go Cougars!), Garcon, and Wayne the playmakers they have been. Dwight Freeney is one of the best defensive players in the league.
Forecast = 7-9

Maurice Jones-Drew is coming off knee surgery, his backup is out for the year, they are going with a new quarterback (Luke McCown and probably rookie Blaine Gabbert later), and they lost their best receiver before the season. I'm not optimistic about the Jaguars. MJD says he is healthy and can possibly be his explosive self, but the other defense will be waiting for him. Jack Del Rio is on the hottest seat.
Forecast = 4-12

NFL Week 1 Preview

Hope is the word of the day. Optimism flows freely as we have escaped the fog of lockouts and chaos of free agency and arrived at Week 1 of the NFL season, one of the happiest times of the year. And in 32 cities all sights are set on the playoffs 18 weeks ahead. But everyone has a chance, everybody starts 0-0 and in the NFL, something crazy can happen any given Sunday.

(Technically it’s 31 cities since the Jets and Giants share the Big Apple, and they’ve added tons of Thursday games along with the usual Monday Night Football games, so the madness is not stuck on Sunday.)

Key Matchups

1. Packers vs. Saints: Thursday night on NBC. The NFL is starting things off right with a matchup of the last two Super Bowl champs and two of the best teams in the league. This ought to be a great game to watch as both quarterbacks are very accurate and the offenses are explosive.
2. Ravens vs. Steelers: Sunday early on CBS. Football fans are lucky to get this matchup twice every year (sometimes thrice). The two toughest teams battle in a black n’ blue showdown. The Thursday game features the finesse; this one will be an ugly, physical, ground and pound.

Other Headline Games

1. Texans vs. Colts: People in Houston rejoiced as the Texans finally defeated Peyton Manning in the 2010 opener, only to go 5-10 the rest of the way as the Colts marched on. No Manning this week, and the pendulum looks like it’s tipping Houston’s way.
2. Jets vs. Cowboys: The NFL honors 9/11 with a game that Rex Ryan is calling “the most important of his career.” Even in Week 1, this is a very critical game for both teams, and the winner will have a good chance to get in the playoffs while the loser will be unlikely.

Upset Alert

• Titans over Jaguars
• Rams over Eagles

Stone Cold Picks

- Buccaneers over Lions. I’m the biggest fan on the Josh Freeman cheering team.
- Steelers over Ravens. Big Ben is just better than Joe Flacco. Troy Polomalu will grab an interception.
- Texans over Colts. Colts have no chance with Kerry Collins in Houston.
- Giants over Redskins. Practically the whole defense is injured for the Giants, but Bradshaw and Jacobs will run all over the Washington defense and the G-Men will outscore Rex Grossman's Redskins.

My Eliminator Lock

- Chiefs over Bills