Thursday, October 6, 2011

Week 4 Power Report

The craziest thing I've seen this season is how many huge leads have been squandered; or in other words, how many huge deficits have been overcome. This week we saw the Eagles let a 23-3 lead in the fourth quarter at home get away against Alex Smith and the 49ers. The Cowboys lost a home game they had a 27-3 lead in the second half to the Lions, a week after the Lions came back from 20-0 in Minnesota. After the Bills had two huge comeback wins against the Raiders and Patriots they yielded a 2-touchdown halftime lead.

The way teams refuse to hand the ball off and stay with the air game when they have a lead is creating opportunity for these colossal collapses. Why is Tony Romo throwing the ball on first down in the 2nd half with a 24 point lead? How do the Vikings lose three big second half leads when they have All Day Adrian Peterson on the field? Coaches and quarterbacks need to back off and go with what they've been trained to do for their entire careers, and that is keeping the ball on the ground, despite the disproportional passing statistics we've seen this year.

Stats o’ the Week

5 – Returns for touchdowns in the Jets/Ravens game (defensive and special teams)
19 – Plays in the Texans’ opening drive against the Steelers.
61 – Pass attempts by Colt McCoy this week
205 – Rushing yards by Matt Forte

Power Rankings

There are a ton of bad teams this year. Only four are winless, but the Jaguars, Chiefs, Seahawks, Broncos, and Panthers are dreadful, too. The group at the top is also getting smaller each week. And the group of average or disappointing teams is growing.

Top 6
1. Packers. Aaron Rodgers is the MVP of the first quarter of the season.
2. Patriots. The defense yields a little less than 50% success rate on 3rd downs, but at least the offense completes over half their third downs. Wes Welker is on pace for 2400 yards receiving. Tom Brady had 500+ passing yards in Week 1, 400+ in Week 2, 300+ in Week 3, and 200+ this week. Can the Jets continue the trend and limit him to under 200? I wouldn’t count on it.
3. Saints.
4. Lions. Calvin Johnson has two touchdowns in all 4 games this season.
5. Ravens. Mark Sanchez is having nightmares of black jerseys in his face.
6. Texans. Their best player Andre Johnson is hurt but at least it comes at a good time now that Arian Foster looks like he is healthy and back on track.

Muddy Middle
7. Bears. Those rushing yards by Matt Forte come a week after a 2 yard total.
8. Bucs. Looks like Freeman and Blount are back on track as the Bucs have won 3 in a row. Hard to understand how the defense gave up so many huge passing plays to Curtis Paynter.
9. Giants. The GMen avoid an embarrassing loss as Eli takes over the game in the 4th quarter. Eli is 3rd in quarterback rating, behind only Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady.
10. Chargers. Alone in first place and a matchup in Denver next week.
11. Raiders. 508 yards of offense, but if Jason Campbell is throwing more than Tom Brady then they are not pounding the ground game enough and will lose.
12. Titans. Chris Johnson finally breaks 100 yards. Nice opportunity next week to finally beat a banged-up Steelers team.
13. Cowboys. How exactly do the Dallas Cowboys blow a 24 point second half lead at home? Only Tony Romo could find a way.
14. Jets. Joe McKnight has returned a blocked punt and a kickoff for touchdowns this season.
15. 49ers. Only division leader with a two-game cushion. Next two opponents are 7-1.
16. Steelers.
17. Eagles. Despite the collapse, Vick had nearly 500 yards of total offense.
18. Bills. Sorry, but I told you I’d drop them here if they lose to the Bengals.
19. Redskins.
20. Falcons. Sheesh, they let a 20 point second half lead to the lowly Seahawks squander enough that a last minute long field goal could have won the game.
21. Bengals. Bengals are the surprising top-ranked defense in yardage.
22. Cardinals.
23. Browns. Colt McCoy’s 350 passing yards may be the most overrated stat in history. He made 61 passes and the Browns only scored 13 points.

Terrible Teams
24. Broncos. Tebow time? Why not?
25. Panthers
26. Seahawks
27. Chiefs
28. Vikings. Pretty sad that the first game where they never really had a lead they could blow was to the Chiefs.
29. Dolphins
30. Rams. Getting killed by a brutal opening schedule.
31. Colts. At least they are competitive.
32. Jaguars. For those of you who understand ESPN’s new stat Total Quarterback Rating, the Jags have a combined total of 33.1 in the last 3 games. The Titans’ Matt Hasselback has topped 90 twice in that span.

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