NFL Week 3 in Review

After 3 games there are three undefeated teams: Kansas City Chiefs, Pittsburgh Steelers with Dennis Dixon and Charlie Batch, and the Chicago Bears. Wow, what a start. There seems to be more parity in the league than in a long time, and it is hard to find any team that will win 13 games this year.

Bests of the Week:

Team: Kansas City Chiefs, who completely dominated the 49ers.

Players:
Gold Medal: Michael Vick, who threw for 291 yards and four total touchdowns, including this throw.

Silver Medal: Leon Washington of the Seahawks, who returned two kickoffs for touchdowns to help the Seahawks upset the Chargers.

Bronze Medal: BYU Alum Austin Collie, who caught 12 passes for 171 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Also deserving mention: Anquan Boldin (3 touchdown catches), and Adrian Peterson (160 yards, two TDs) helping the Vikings get their first win.

Catch: Tony Moeaki's amazing grab. Also, how did Antonio Gates catch this pass?

Flea-flicker: Matt Cassell to Dwayne Bowe. Everyone loves a Flea-flicker.

Game: Falcons road upset in overtime over the Saints.

Upset: Rams over the Redskins.

Worsts of the Week

Game execution: New York Giants. 471 yards, only 10 points?

Team performance: Packers, who committed 18 penalties for a whopping 152 yards, missed a field goal, and had a bad turnover that lost the game.

Pressure kickers: Saints' Garrett Hartley missed a 29 yard field goal in overtime, and Raiders' Sebastian Janikowski missed a 32 yard chip shot as time expired. Both would have been game winners.

Stock is Rising: Chiefs, Falcons, Jets

Stock is Falling: 49ers, Chargers, Panthers

NFL Week 3 Preview

Storylines
* Andy Reid, after stonewalling for weeks, changes his mind and declares Michael Vick the starter for the foreseeable future. The Eagles immediately jump into the playoff picture. The main cause, I believe, is that Philly's offensive line is so bad that Kevin Kolb would get killed in there. Michael Vick was running for his life and still making huge throws down the field. So what are they doing with Kevin Kolb then, their anointed "franchise quarterback"?
* Jets: They had a huge win over their hated rivals, and celebrated by having their #1 receiver arrested for drunk driving with two teammates in the vehicle. Darelle Revis tweaked his hammy, which seems remarkably easy to expect after he skipped all of training camp and preseason. This team is always in the news.
* Teams in Trouble? 0-1 is easy to recover from, but 0-2 brings some cause for concern. Cowboys, Vikings and 49ers are all 0-2. Vikings ought to get on board hosting the Lions, but the Cowboys have a tough game in Houston and the 49ers go on the road to Kansas City against the 2-0 Chiefs. Cowboys and Vikings are a mess.
* Quarterback Carousel: Bruce Gradkowski, Seneca Wallace, Jimmy Clausen, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Shaun Hill, Charlie Batch, and the aforementioned Michael Vick are all starting quarterbacks this week. Welcome to the NFL.
* Lions' rookie Jahvid Best has five touchdowns in his first two games.
* Hot Seat: Eric Mangini, still on schedule to get fired on Halloween. John Fox is likely to follow. Jerry Jones says no coaching change will be made midseason, which is more than what Wade Phillips deserves. Lovie Smith escapes the hot seat with a nice win last week.

Key Matchups
- Falcons @ Saints: big divisional game, Falcons' statement game. No Reggie Bush.
- Jets @ Dolphins: both teams coming off big wins. Without Revis, will Brandon Marshall finally take off?
- Titans @ Giants: my teams.
- 49ers @ Chiefs: a KC win would really cripple the Niners and put the Chiefs in the driver seat.
- Cowboys @ Texans: see 49ers/Chiefs.
- Packers @ Bears: division rivals are both 2-0.

Individual Performance Predictions
- QB: Vince Young scores two touchdowns (pass or run)
- RB: Adrian Peterson scores two touchdowns.
- WR: Miles Austin totals 100 yards and scores a touchdown.
- DF: Dolphins allow less than 130 yards passing.
(last week: Vick only 2 TDs miss, Bradshaw 89/0 miss, Moss only 1 TD miss, Titans allow 18 miss = 0-4. To date = 3-4-1)

Upset Alert
Titans over Giants
Bears over Packers
last week = 2-0 (Bengals and Chiefs). To date = 4-0

Stone Cold Picks:
- Dolphins over Jets. Sanchez will have a terrible game. Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown each run for over 80 yards.
- Eagles over Jaguars. Michael Vick goes to 2-0 as a starter.
- 49ers over Chiefs. Alex Smith stinks, but Matt Cassell is worse.
- Saints over Falcons. The Champs are just better.
(last week = 1-3. To date = 4-5)

When will they win their first (or next) game? Not before...
*Rams: Week 4
*Lions: Week 5
*Bears: Week 7 (wrong)
*Bucs: Week 7 (wrong)
*Bills: Week 9
*Browns: Week 12

the worst sporting weekend ever

The first play of the NFL schedule was the Titans giving up a return for a touchdown on the opening kickoff, followed by a fumble on the ensuing kickoff on the way to a loss. The Patriots had a terrible second half and got blown out by the Jets. The Giants got completely destroyed Sunday night. Mariano Rivera blew a save and the Yankees got beat by the Orioles. My alma mater BYU got beat on Saturday. Heck, even UConn (the local school) lost to Temple! Not to mention all four of my fantasy football teams lost this week.

WEEK 2 IN REVIEW

I find it incredible that in Week 1 the leader in rushing yards was a Houston Texan, and in Week 2 the leader in passing was a Texan. What more do I need to say?

Bests of the Week:

Team: Indianapolis Colts, completely dominating the New York Giants all the way around, led by another amazing performance by Peyton Manning.

Players:
Gold Medal: Lots of quarterbacks, Jay Cutler of the Bears at the top, who completed over 72% of his passes for 277 yards and 3 touchdowns and no turnovers in a big upset over the Cowboys in Big D. Matt Schaub threw for nearly 500 yards in a win, Mark Sanchez had a career day, and Michael Vick played so well Andy Reid ate his words.

Silver Medal: Jahvid Best of the Lions, who scored three touchdowns and gained 230 yards in a game started by a backup quarterback. Unfortunately, it was in a losing effort.

Bronze Medal: James Harrison of the Steelers who had two sacks, forced two fumbles, and totaled 11 tackles as the Steelers beat the Titans. Also noteworthy, Jason Allen of the Dolphins, who picked off Brett Favre twice and also had 11 total tackles.

Catch: Randy Moss' one handed catch ahead of Darelle Revis.

Game: Texans over the Redskins in overtime.

Redemption: Redskins' kicker missing the field goal in overtime, moments after Gary Kubiak declined to send out Neil Rackers to attempt a game-winning 53-yard field goal, punting instead.

Upset: Bears winning in Dallas.

Defensive Stand: Miami Dolphins stopping Adrian Peterson on 3 straight carries inside the 5, including on 4th and 1, preserving a four point win.

Highlight: Eagles and Lions (Vick, Best, McCoy)

Worsts of the Week:

Team: My Tennessee Titans, who were miserable on special teams (kickoff for a touchdown and a fumbled kickoff on two straight plays to start the game) and offense (6 more turnovers), losing to Charlie Batch despite limiting the Steelers to 21 passing yards.

Cheap Shot: Eric Smith knocking Wes Welker in the head. Welker did practically nothing for the rest of the game and (neither did the Patriots).

Life choice: Braylon Edwards of the Jets, who was arrested for DWI on Tuesday at 5am, as well as teammates D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Vernon Gholston who were also riding in the car.

Decision: Me changing my Stone Cold Picks choice of the Bengals for the Cowboys.

Stocks are Rising: Bucs, Steelers.

Stocks are Falling: Cowboys, Vikings, Panthers.

chicks dig the long ball so they're loving these guys

The number one story of this entire season has been "home runs are down." Hitting is at the lowest in a decade. Pitching is dominating.

Then there's Jose Bautista. The 29 year-old journeyman utility fielder is playing for his sixth team in seven seasons. On Saturday he hit his 49th home run of the season. His previous season high was 16. 16 to 49, that's like a 306% increase with like two weeks left to add to that total. No other player even has 40. How do you explain that?

And then there's Troy Tulowitzki. On Saturday, the Rockies' shortstop hit two more home runs, his 14th of September. That's 14 home runs in 15 games. Before September he had twelve all season. If he was on a team in the cellar it wouldn't matter much, but his Rockies are storming back into the playoff hunt. On August 23, not too long ago, the Rockies were 11 games behind division-leading San Diego. Today (September 18), the Rockies are one single game back. (It doesn't hurt that teammate Carlos Gonzalez is hitting .388 since the beginning of July.) Some of you may credit Coors Field for that, but he also has five homers in five road games in pitcher-friendly San Diego and Los Angeles this month.

Especially with the situation around the rest of the league, these two hitters are having truly historical seasons that shouldn't be overlooked.

NFL Week 2 Preview

(note: I'm editing one pick on Saturday, removing Bengals/Ravens from my Stone Cold Picks since it's already in my upset pick, and replacing it with the Cowboys)

Storylines
* Manning Bowl: It's Peyton vs. little brother Eli as the Colts host the Giants.
* Controversy in Philly? All Michael Vick needed was a chance, and he got that chance last week showing he gives the Eagles the best chance to win.
* Quarterback injuries already stacking up: Eagles' Kevin Kolb, Lions' Matthew Stafford, Browns' Jake Delhomme, and Panthers' Matt Moore all got hurt last week and are at best questionable this week.
* 0-2? Top teams that lost Week 1: Colts, Vikings, 49ers, Chargers, Falcons, Cowboys. Falcons, Vikings, Chargers, and Cowboys all win. 49ers will fall to 0-2. I'm not picking the Colts' game here.
* Hot Seat: Eric Mangini will be the first coach fired, during the Browns' bye week (Halloween). The Bears' Lovie Smith will be fired November 15.

Key Matchups:
- Patriots @ Jets: These teams really hate each other. Will big-mouth Jets go 0-2 and fall 2 games behind Pats? Revis vs. Moss?
- Giants @ Colts: see above
- Ravens @ Bengals: big AFC North matchup

What to Watch For:
- QB: Eagles' Michael Vick scores at least 3 touchdowns (passing or running).
- RB: Giants' Ahmad Bradshaw runs for 100 yards and a touchdown.
- WR: Randy Moss scores two touchdowns.
- DF: Titans keep Steelers under 11 points.
(last week: Favre 1/1 TD/INT check, Johnson 142 yards rushing check, Bolding did not score but had 110 yards, push, Jaguars allowed 89 yards rushing check = 3-0-1)

Upset Alert:
- Chiefs (again) over Browns
- Bengals over Ravens
last week 2-0 (Ravens and Chiefs)

Stone Cold Picks:
- Patriots over Jets. On a bad day, the Patriots high-powered would score 20 points. Jets are not scoring more than 17.
- Titans over Steelers. Titans offense dominated last week, this week the defense will. Steelers only had 9 before overtime against a crappy Falcons D a week ago.
- Chargers over Jaguars. Short week for the Chargers, but coming home after an embarrassing loss, against a team from 3000 miles away I'll take the Bolts.
- Cowboys over Bears. Bears already got their win. Cowboys are not losing their home opener to go 0-2.
(last week = 3-2)

When will they win their next (or first) game? Not before...
* Rams: Week 4
* Lions: Week 5
* Bears: Week 7
* Bucs: Week 7
* Bills: Week 9
* Browns: Week 12

great day to be a fan

Week 1 is over, and from my point of view, it couldn't have been better.

- Titans, Patriots, and Giants all won easily.
- Colts, Chargers, Jets, Cowboys, and Eagles all lost.
- Tom Brady looked great, Chris Johnson ran all over the field, and Vince Young had the highest QB rating (raise your hand if you picked that).
- No important players on my teams got hurt.
- I went 12-4 in picking the games, including picking the big upset correctly, Chiefs beat the Chargers in KC, as well as the little upset, Ravens over the Jets.

Week 1 in Review
There were no super heroes injured, so despite some disappointing performances no team's season is over, so fans and teams should not overreact. However, there are some areas of concerns, weaknesses exposed, and holes teams put themselves into.

Bests o' the Week

Players:
Gold Medal: Arian Foster of the Texans, no question. Foster ran for 231 yards and 3 touchdowns as the Texans won a huge game for their franchise over the Colts.

Silver Medal: Matt Hasselback of the Seahawks, who, after his first pass of the game (an interception), compiled a QB rating of 150 en route to a blowout upset over the 49ers.

Bronze Medal: Adrian Wilson of the Arizona Cardinals, who compiled a sack, two interceptions, and blocked a field goal.

Best Team: Patriots

Best Game: Texans over Colts

Highlight: Deon Grant's interception (#10 in that video)

Worsts of the Week

Play: Cowboys call to run a play with 11 seconds left in the first half from their own 30 yard line down 3-0 (result: fumble returned for a touchdown = trailing 10-0

Call: Calvin Johnson's game-winner that wasn't. With 25 seconds left this should have given the Lions the win. Compare this to this catch in the Super Bowl, that REVIEW overturned and called a touchdown.

Coach: Vikings' Brad Childress. Vikings were leading at halftime and only trailed later by 5 points, only called for 6 handoffs to Adrian Peterson (their best player) in the second half of the Viking's loss to the Saints, compared to 13 passing plays for a rusty Brett Favre.

Team: How bad was the Jets offense Monday night? The Jets totaled only 6 first downs, converted only 1 third attempt, and averaged a measly 2.6 yards per pass play (compare that to the Bears' 9.3). They started four drives inside the Ravens' 40 yard line and only mustered 9 points. Defense included, the Jets committed 14 penalties worth 125 yards, 70% of their team's total gain.

Quarter: The Panthers and Giants turned the ball over on six consecutive possessions in the 4th quarter.

Prediction: ever picking the Browns to win.

Stocks are Rising: Patriots, Seahawks, Chiefs

Stocks are Falling: Colts, 49ers, Jets

NFL Season Preview, #7: AFC South

The Colts are coming off a 16-win season (including the playoffs). History says that the Super Bowl loser will have an off year, and while the Titans and Texans are trying to climb, the Colts have #18 and nobody else does.

Indianapolis Colts
As long as Peyton Manning is on the field, the Colts will always be the favorites. He is the greatest regular season quarterback of all-time, no question. When it comes to the rest of the team, there isn't a lot to say. They aren't going to run the ball much at all with Joseph Addai and Donald Brown. They have lots of receivers: Wayne, Dallas Clark, Garcon, Collie the Cougar, Anthony Gonzalez (and Addai). They will probably repeat as the #32 running team in the NFL but it doesn't seem to matter. The defense is not great, but they have playmakers (Bob Sanders, Robert Mathis, Gary Brackett). The Colts are not a deep team, I think it's been 5 years since they won a single preseason game, and if (heaven forbid) anything ever happens to Peyton this is a 5 win team. But he's been remarkably durable his whole career so 11+ wins seems likely once again. They have a REALLY tough stretch after their bye week: Texans, at Philadelphia, Bengals, at New England, Chargers, Cowboys, at Tennessee. So even if they start 6-0 they aren't out of the clear. Last year the Colts were really lucky. They should have lost at least 4 other games. Don't expect 13 wins this year.

Key Games:
- Giants on 9/19
- Texans on Monday Night Football 11/1
- @ Patriots on 11/21
- Chargers on 11/28
- @ Titans on Thursday 12/9
Projection: 11-5

Tennessee Titans
Chris Johnson is my favorite player in the NFL. One reason he is so good is that his style is not to run through people and drag people like Adrian Peterson, but to run around them with his blazing speed. He had a crazy number of touches (rushes plus receptions) but he's also probably too young to break down. He is the focal point of the Titans offense; there is no 40 year old legend at quarterback who expects to throw forty times a game. Vince Young never gets big numbers. His quarterback statistics are middle of the road. But he holds a 66% winning percentage and has leadership like an elite quarterback, and has demonstrated capability to lead a comeback with his arm (as well as his legs). The defense was very bad last year (59 points allowed to Patriots in the snow), and they lost Kyle Vanden Bosch, so there is some work to do. This is a defense-minded team so they should be able to improve. Jeff Fisher is the best coach in the NFL without a championship. If they start liked they finished last year the Titans will be in the playoff hunt. Titans have five divisional games in their last six weeks.

Key Games:
- Steelers on 9/19
- @ Jaguars on Monday Night Football on 10/18
- @ Dolphins on 11/14
- @ Texans on 11/28
- Colts on Thursday 12/9
- Texans on 12/19
- @ Colts on 1/2
Projection: 10-6

Houston Texans
If the Texans get a dependable ground game they could have the best offense in the AFC. That was Slaton two years ago, and Arian Foster could do that now. Andre Johnson and Matt Schaub are the best QB to WR connection in the league. The defense is suspect, especially without defensive rookie of the year Brian Cushing suspended for the beginning of the season. They are starting a rookie first rounder at cornerback against Peyton Manning. Mario Williams has done a great job supporting his #1 draft pick status; he's a stud. The Texans' schedule is really difficult, so even if they have one of the best teams in the AFC they probably won't win 10 games and make the playoffs (especially in those first four weeks without Cushing). But they could really assert themselves as a championship contender if they can beat the Colts in Week 1; it's really a must win game.

Key Games:
- Colts on 9/12
- @ Colts on Monday Night Football 11/1
- @ Jets on 11/21
- Titans on 11/28
- Ravens on Monday Night Football on 12/13
- @ Titans on 12/19
Projection: 9-7

Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags were in the drivers' seat to the playoffs a year ago at 7-5 until they lost their last four games. Maurice Jones-Drew is one of the best all-purpose running backs in the league, a touchdown machine and close to 1400 yards last season. David Garrard finally got a good receiver in Mike Sims-Walker, but he disappeared in the second half of the season. The defense had by far the fewest sacks in the NFL, and if you can't get pressure on Manning and Schaub then you are in trouble. The Jags are a boring team in a town that they will likely leave soon.

Key Games:
- Colts on 10/3
- Titans on Monday Night Football on 10/18
- Texans on 11/14
- @ Titans on 12/5
- @ Colts on 12/19
- @ Texans on 1/2
Projection: 5-11

Super Picks

I still have a couple divisions left to preview but today's opening day for the NFL. Here's the science behind my Super Bowl pick.

Teams with a shot to win the Super Bowl
NFC:
Cowboys, Saints, Falcons, Vikings, 49ers, Packers, Giants
AFC:
Colts, Patriots, Chargers, Ravens, Bengals, Steelers, Jets, Texans, Dolphins, Titans

- Saints, Steelers, Giants, Colts, and Patriots have all won recently with their current quarterback, so they all make the list. The Steelers and Giants have weak offensive lines and probably won't make the playoffs.
- Cowboys could have home field advantage in the Big Game but Wade Phillips isn't a Super Bowl coach and the rest of the team isn't mature enough. Bengals are also strong individually, but not tough enough to win 3 playoff games.
- Falcons, Texans, and Titans are set up like the Saints a year ago with really strong offenses coming off a year outside the playoffs. The defenses do not look ready for the Super Bowl. The Patriots are in the same group; great offense, weak defense.
- Jets have a great defense but not enough offense.
- Dolphins and 49ers could be really solid but don't have much experience.
- Chargers and Vikings are weaker than a year ago.
- Packers and Ravens look really strong on both sides of the ball.
- Colts have Peyton Manning, Saints have Drew Brees.

My Super Bowl Prediction:
RAVENS over Saints

NFL Season Preview, #6: AFC East

One of the strongest and most intriguing divisions in the league and one of my favorites is the AFC East, where the Jets are calling themselves future champions, Dolphins made the best trade of the offseason, and the Patriots have Tom Brady and Bill Belichek.

New England Patriots
Brady is a couple years clear of his injury and has been incredible this preseason, completing 78% of his passes. Randy Moss is a head case and Wes Welker is making an incredibly fast recovery from his knee injury, but I am really excited about the hometown New England Patriots this year. They won't use the running game much, but Fred Taylor looks like he can be the productive player he's been across his career. The defense is certainly young and doesn't have much star power, but they've been with Belichek for a year now and should be improved. They don't have a pass rush, and that's an issue in the NFL. Tom Brady is the best quarterback in the division, and that is a huge advantage over teams with Mark Sanchez, Chad Henne, and Trent Edwards. The early schedule is tough with road games in Miami and New York, along with hosting the Bengals in Week 1, and after the bye they play the Ravens, at San Diego, and then the Minnesota Favres. Don't worry if they fall a couple games behind because they could easily win their last 6 games.

Key Games:
- @ Jets on 9/19
- Ravens on 10/17
- @ Chargers on 10/24
- Colts on 11/21
- Dolphins on 1/2
Projection: 11-5

Miami Dolphins
Here's what I like: Coach Sparano, Chad Henne, Brandon Marshall, Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. I think the defense could be pretty good with Mike Nolan as the new D-coordinator, newcomers Karlos Dansby and 7 of their 8 draft choices replacing the old Jason Taylor, Joey Porter and Jason Ferguson. But the offense is what I really like: a strong ground game and a blooming Chad Henne with Brandon Marshall to throw at. There won't be much need for the Wildcat formation.

Key Games:
- Jets on 9/26
- Patriots on Monday Night Football on 10/4
- @ Jets on 12/12
- @ Patriots 1/2

Projection: 10-6

New York Jets
Just to remind people on the Jets' bandwagon: the Jets made the playoffs after the Colts quit playing and the Bengals rested their entire team, and then made it to the AFC Championship game because the Bengals missed two field goals and the Chargers missed three. This team was awful most of last year.
The best news in the northeast this month was that Darelle Revis signed a new contract with the Jets and he'll be on the field starting in Week 1. The Jets picked up LT, which has a lot of name recognition, but he was the workhorse for the league's 31st-ranked rushing game, so going to the league's best rushing team... it's hard to see a big impact. I don't feel great about Shonn Greene for 16 weeks but the Jets were big on him enough to drop Thomas Jones. For the Jets to be as good as they think they will, Mark Sanchez will have to become a good quarterback and I don't think he is ready to make a huge jump from 12 TDs/ 20 INTS, NFL's 31st ranked passing game. They will be tested right away against the Ravens, Patriots, and in Miami. The defense is good enough to keep them close in every game.

Key Games:
- Ravens on 9/13
- Patriots on 9/19
- @ Dolphins on 9/26
- @ Patriots on 12/6

Projection: 9-7

Buffalo Bills
The offense will be terrible. The defense won't be good enough. They have a bunch of good running backs behind a bad offensive line. The other three teams in the division are miles ahead. The quarterbacking is one of the NFL's worst. The hometown is not supportive and they will have to play some home games in Toronto. They'll start 0-4. I'm not optimistic about the Bills and I don't want to write anything more.

Key Games:
- Bears on 11/7
- Lions on 11/14
- Browns on 12/12

Projection: 3-13

NFL Week 1 Preview

Wow, the regular season is already here! I haven't finished all the divisional previews, but here is the lowdown on this week's games.

Key Matchups:
-Vikings @ Saints: rematch of NFC Championship Game
-Ravens @ Jets: the media-frenzied Jets get a tough matchup with the rising Ravens
-Colts @ Texans: Texans are 1-15 against the Colts. They want to make a statement. This is their biggest game of the year.
-Bengals @ Patriots: matchup of two division winners

Individual Statements:
QB - Viking's Brett Favre throws more interceptions than touchdowns (or equal)
RB - Titan's Chris Johnson runs for over 130 yards
WR - Raven's Anquan Boldin scores a touchdown despite Darelle Revis
DF - Jaguars allow under 90 yards rushing

Upset Alert:
Ravens over Jets
Chiefs over Chargers

Stone Cold Picks
- Giants over Panthers - GMen win big
- Colts over Texans - Texans still jinxed. Teams combine for 670+ yards passing.
- Saints over Vikings - Favre gets roughed up again
- Browns over Bucs - Browns get a win early on the road
- Ravens over Jets - Ravens score 25 or more, Mark Sanchez throws more TDs than INTs

NFL Season Preview #5: AFC West

The AFC West has been owned of late by the Chargers who, ever since Philip Rivers became the starting quarterback, have won 4 titles in a row. And while they shouldn't be as strong as they've been, and other teams in the division are improving, the Chargers ought to still be a few games better than anyone else.

San Diego Chargers
Philip Rivers doesn't get much respect and attention around the country, but he should. He hasn't missed a game, his QB rating has been over 104 two years in a row and he is among the leaders in most other statistical categories. Along with that, his team wins. But like the Colts, Rivers and the Chargers can't get it done in the playoffs, going 3-4 the last few years, despite being the favorite in most of those games. There are some changes and challenges this season: Vincent Jackson is suspended for at least part of the season and may never play for the Chargers again, a significant loss as he's among the leaders in yards per reception. Left tackle is one of the most important positions on the field, and the Chargers' Marcus McNeill is holding out and may miss most of the season. And the best running back over the last decade, LaDamian Tomlinson, is gone to New York, leaving the Chargers counting on rookie Ryan Matthews. The Chargers are fortunate that they don't have to travel to the East Coast, and they host a couple teams that have to fly 3,000 from their home (Patriots and Jaguars).

Key Games:
- Patriots on 10/24
- @ Colts on 11/28
- @ Bengals on 12/26
Projection: 10-6

Oakland Raiders
I have been pretty optimistic about the Raiders this offseason, but I'm getting a little concerned as new starting quarterback Jason Campbell is already dealing with an injured wrist and shoulder/back, starting running back Michael Bush has a broken thumb, Darren McFadden hardly played in the preseason, and receiver Chaz Schilens is out for about a month with an injured knee. Along with that, their starting center is a rookie who hasn't worked much at all with quarterback Campbell. On defense, the Raiders ranked 31 against the run last year and they have addressed that area significantly in the draft. They do have a couple stars on defense in Nnamdi Asamugha (who has the toughest name to spell or pronounce in the league) and former Patriot Richard Seymour. I like coach Tom Cable, and the Raiders will be competitive this year for the first time in 8 years.

Key Games:
- Texans on 10/3
- Chargers on 10/10
- @ 49ers on 10/17
- Dolphins on 11/28
- @ Chargers on 12/5
Projection: 8-8

Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs had a soft offense and even softer defense last year, but Coach Todd Haley has done a lot to toughen them up. Chiefs have grabbed former partners Charlie Weiss and Romeo Crenell to help run the show. This team has some talent and potential on the offense: a solid backfield with Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, a receiving corp that should make big plays, and a quarterback that should improve. The defensive secondary could be a strong point. The run game could be very poor again, but their early season schedule features the Chargers, Browns, Colts, and Texans, four of the worst ground games in the league. I see the Chiefs making the first real upset of the season, beating the Chargers in Kansas City om Week 1.

Key Games:
- Chargers on Monday Night Fooball on 9/13
- @ Raiders on 11/7
Projection: 7-9

Denver Broncos
I don't like their coach, they have below average running backs who are already dealing with injuries, they lost star receiver Brandon Marshall and their starting tight end, and they have a below average quarterback. Their best player on defense and NFL sacks leader is gone for the year. And the two divisonal bottom-feeders are much better. Kyle Orton has had a great preseason and he has won games in the past, so they could surprise me, but I see too big of a lack in talent. I think this will be one of the league's worst and most boring teams that will be buried by a 1-7 start.

Key Games:
- Raiders on 10/24
- @ Chargers on Monday Night Football on 11/22
- Chiefs on 11/14
Projection: 4-12