NFL Power Report

(Sept 9, 2009)

Opening Day is tomorrow so I guess it’s past time to make my NFL 2009 Predictions. The thing about the NFL is it is easy to pick who will be bad. Picking the great teams is tough because one injury in Week 1 or 2 can sink an entire season for a team. Look at the Seahawks, a staple at the top of the NFC West. Lost their Pro Bowl quarterback, lost like six wideouts, lost a tackle on the line, and this team went from 10 wins to 12 losses. What happens if Peyton, Big Ben, Michael Turner, Kurt Warner, Westbrook, or Rivers go down early? Their respective team would be sub-.500. A few teams on a lower level would be completely sunk without their star: Frank Gore, Jones-Drew, Matt Cassell, Romo, Schaub, Ryan Grant, Steven Jackson, Thomas Jones, and Carson Palmer. There are a few teams that are deep enough that (knock on wood) they could probably handle a major injury or two (a la 2008 Patriots), like the Pats, Vikings, Ravens, and Titans, but those teams are few.

Another squirrely aspect of making ultimate picks is strength of schedule. The Dolphins profited last year from an easy schedule, as the Seahawks did the years prior. The best divisions in the league are clearly the NFC East and the AFC South, and the worst divisions are the AFC West and the NFC West. That makes it much more difficult for the Cardinals and Seahawks to both make the playoffs, as it does for a wild card to come from the NFC South (Falcons, Panthers, Saints). This year the Vikings have a light schedule and Miami, Atlanta, and the Cowboys have very difficult schedules. That being said, the Steelers had THE toughest schedule last year and still won the Super Bowl.

NFC East
*Giants 10-6
*Eagles 10-6
Cowboys 9-7
Redskins 7-9

NFC North
*Vikings 11-5
*Bears 9-7
Packers 8-8
Lions 3-13

NFC South
*Falcons 10-6
Panthers 8-8
Saints 8-8
Buccaneers 4-12

NFC West
*Seahawks 10-6
Cardinals 9-7
49ers 6-10
Rams 4-12

AFC East
*Patriots 13-3
Dolphins 7-9
Jets 5-11
Buffalo 5-11

AFC North
*Steelers 11-5
*Ravens 10-6
Bengals 6-10
Browns 4-12

AFC South
*Titans 10-6
*Texans 10-6
Colts 9-7
Jaguars 7-9

AFC West
*Chargers 10-6
Broncos 7-9
Raiders 5-11
Chiefs 3-13

NFC PLAYOFFS
Falcons over Bears
Eagles over Seahawks
Eagles over Vikings
Falcons over Giants
Falcons over Eagles

AFC PLAYOFFS
Chargers over Texans
Titans over Ravens
Patriots over Titans
Steelers over Chargers
Patriots over Steelers

SUPER BOWL
Patriots over Falcons

MVP: (1) Adrian Peterson (2) Tom Brady (3) Philip Rivers
Teams that could surprise: Bears, Saints, Jets, and Raiders