World Series Preview

(Oct 28)

So we’re at a matchup of clearly the best team in the American League versus clearly the best team in the National League. The Phillies and Yankees are very similar teams. Yankees have the history, but Phillies have the short term history (defending champions). Both clubs led the league in home runs. Both clubs are led by the epitome of an ace: C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee (who were teammates a couple years ago in Cleveland). Sluggers who are hot at the right time (ARod and Howard) and good lineup top to bottom. World Series heroes of old (Pettitte and Pedro).

There are just a couple differences that tip in the Yankees’ favor. If the Yankees are trailing 4-3 in the 9th, I am sure not nervous with Brad Lidge on the mound (he already blew two saves against the Yankees in May). However, I can turn off the TV and go to bed if Rivera’s there with a 4-3 lead. The Yankees’ defense has been terrific; there is no better infield than Teixeira, Cano, Jeter and ARod. Chase Utley is having issues reminiscent of Chuck Knaublach (maybe not to that extent, but something is apparent). The Yankees’ great bullpen of Hughes, Joba, and Aceves hasn’t been great, but neither has Happ, Park, Madsen or Eyre. Homefield advantage is a huge factor. Yankees were the top team at home, and while Phillies were best road team, Yankees were only a couple games off that pace. Actually, the Angels had the same road record as the Phillies and they couldn’t steal one in New York.

Game 1, NYC: CC Sabathia vs. Cliff Lee. This will be a really really fun game to watch, as both pitchers throw strikes and control the game. Combined postseason stats: 47 innings, 5 earned runs allowed, 40 K, 6 walks. There won’t be many hits in this game, but there are likely to be a few balls that leave the ballpark. Prediction: Yankees 3, Phillies 2.
Game 2, NYC: Burnett vs. Martinez. Pedro pitched lights out against the Dodgers, but he won’t have thrown in a game for to full weeks. Of course, it was a similar situation when he made his last start and it sure didn’t hurt him then. You don’t know what you’ll get out of A.J. The Phillies’ feature big lefty bats in Utley, Howard, Ibanez, and switch-hitting Rollins and Victorino, but the righty Burnett limits lefties to a .217 average, 65 points lower than righties. Prediction: Yankees 6, Phillies 4.
Game 3, Philly: Hamels vs. Pettitte. He may be the reigning World Series MVP, but Hamels has been far from consistent this season and in three postseason starts has allowed 11 runs in 14+ innings. Pettitte is a warrior with a season ERA nearly a run lower on the road than at home. He has pitched well in his 3 October games. Prediction: Yankees 7, Phillies 4.

Game 4, Philly: Lee vs. Sabathia. Prediction: Phillies 5, Yankees 2.
Game 5, Philly. ? vs. Burnett. Prediction: Phillies 4, Yankees 3.
Game 6, NYC: Pettitte vs. Hamels(?). Prediction: Yankees 6, Phillies 3.

My World Series Prediction: Yankees in 6. MVP: Alex Rodriguez.

Phillies are a great team with a lot of firepower. I mean no disrespect to them or their fans. They are clearly among the top 2 teams in all of baseball. I would be really excited if the game went 7 so we could get another Sabathia vs. Lee matchup. In fact, this Phillies team has a better chance than any other team in MLB considering Cliff Lee and Pedro (big games in the past in NY), their potent lineup, and their experience gained from last year. But this Yankees' club is one of the best teams of the decade and it will be tough to beat them 4 times. CC up to 3 times, Pettitte twice, Rivera at the end, and Jeter, Teixiera and ARod (along with Damon, Posada, Matsui, and Cano) spell a lot of trouble to Philly Fanatics.

Two things to consider: New York and Philadelphia between Oct 28 and Nov 5 = likelihood of bad weather. We experienced this last year. And cold and/or rain can affect fielding. (It's time to shorten the season.)

The other thing we are forced to remember is that, as the last month has shown, a blown call by the umpire can seriously impact the outcome of a game. The ultimate solution is expanded instant replay. For the only sport that doesn’t even consider “time”, Bud Selig is sure concerned about “time”. Come on, how long would it take for a ump in a booth to look at replay of the Twins’ foul ball, the Angels’ play at 3rd? But as for now, why can’t umpires deliberate once in a while? Let’s be realistic, there are 6 or 7 umpires on the field! I’m sure at least 2 others got a good look at the play in question. Let a guy who blows a call off the hook by helping him fix the call! Yet baseball is fixed on leaving umps in their power trip and not allowing any opportunity to question the human element. The fact is that the integrity of the game is on the line, a little priority than the umpires’ pride.