Weekend Top Ten
1. Saints. I have not been a doubter, but I admit I was surprised by this practically perfect performance. Every throw from Brees was in the perfect location. The defense smothered Welker and Moss. This team is going 16-0.
2. Titans. Vince Young led one of the greatest drives in regular season history, with an 18 play, 99 yard drive that included three 4th down conversions including 4th and 10 with :00 on the clock to beat the first place Cardinals. Like I said earlier, Vince Young is a winner. He has "it". And this week he did it with his arm. Titans are one game out of a playoff spot.
2a. Chris Johnson propelled himself into the MVP debate as he topped 150 yards again, including an 85 yard scamper for a touchdown. His nearly 1700 yards of offense are 300 more than the next guy.
3. Patriots. Brady made some of his worse throws ever. The defense was terrible. Despite great throws from Brees, the tackling was horrendous and the coverage was eye-popping bad. I don't know how Henderson was that open. 0-4 on the road (in North America), not a mark of a great team.
4. Texans. Peyton is great and all, but the Texans completely imploded. They could have been up 21-0 but Andre Johnson dropped a ball in the endzone. The offense never came out after halftime. Schaub made some bad throws following dropped passes, Schaub got stripped, the Colts scored 28 straight points. This is as frustrating a loss as you can have.
5. The Colts have frustrated a lot of teams this year (every team).
6. Panthers. Following the playoff disaster last year, the Panthers gave Jake Delhomme a new contract with $20 mil guaranteed, one of the most bone-headed moves we've seen in a while. The 4 INT game debacle to the Jets should be the final nail in his career coffin.
7. Browns. What will happen to the league's #31 ranked defense when they lose their best player (Shaun Rogers)? Couple that with another sub-200 yard offensive effort and you have one pathetic football team.
8. Jags. So let's say that somehow Jacksonville makes the playoffs as a Wild Card. It is likely they would face a game in San Diego. So far on the West Coast, they have been outscored 61-3. Don't worry, they won't get the chance.
9. Vikings. Brett now has 24 TD to 3 INT. The Vikings are the most complete team in the league with no fewer playmakers than the Saints. My biggest concern is Adrian Peterson holding onto the ball (15 fumbles the last two seasons).
10. Chargers. 6 wins in a row with a trip to the circus in Cleveland coming up. There is no running game (averaged less than 3 yards per carry even after being up 21points at halftime), but looking at the first-place Colts, Pats, and Cards, does that matter?
Power Rankings Top 5
1. Saints. No possible argument here.
2. Vikings. Finally a couple good matchups coming up.
3. Colts. I'm still picking the Titans next week.
4. Patriots. Good news: only team with a winning record on the schedule is the Jags.
5. Bengals. Kudos for sweeping the division.
Monday, November 30, 2009
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
NFL Prognostications, Thanksgiving edition
Games this Week
Giants (6-4) vs. Broncos (6-4)
Two teams that started 5-0 and 6-0 but since are 1-8. Road game is no scare to the GMen, who win more often away from Giants Stadium. The fact that the Giants' best back this year, Ahmad Bradshaw is out which makes me nervous, especially since the Broncos have been so susceptible to the run. Orton is hurting, coming against a defense that has two sacks in four straight games is not good news for them. If the Giants can score red-zone touchdowns they will win this high-scoring affair. Giants by 7
Packers (6-4) vs. Lions (2-8)
I really want to take the Lions in an upset special but it takes a pass rush to beat the Packers. Green Bay will score a million points. Without Stafford and possibly Calvin Johnson, Detroit won't be able to keep up. Packers by 15
Raiders (3-7) vs. Cowboys (7-3)
The Cowboys haven't scored a point in the first three quarters two weeks in a row and only had one touchdown the game before that. The Raiders had a big game in Brad Gradkowski's starting debut. However, Cowboys' backs will run all over the Raiders. Cowboys will score on the first drive and Raiders will be dead early as Dallas wins their 4th Thanksgiving blowout in a row. Cowbys by 20
Later games:
-Bucs (1-9) vs. Falcons (5-5): Falcons need to win and the Bucs are awful. Falcons by 16
-Dolphins (5-5) vs. Bills (3-7): I'm on the Chad Henne bandwagon. Dolphins by 15
-Browns (1-9) vs. Bengals (7-3): Bengals got their wake up call. Bengals by 25
-Colts (10-0) vs. Texans (5-5): Coach Kubiak is not strong enough to rally his team in a short week coming off a bitter loss to beat the 10-0 Colts, no matter how much I think Indy is due. Colts by 6
-Redskins (3-7) vs. Eagles (6-4): I don't think the Redskins will win another game all year. Eagles by 8
-Seahawks (3-7) vs. Rams (1-9): Steven Jackson will have a big game and the Rams will keep it close, but if Seattle throws it well, they win. I think they will. Seahawks by 4
-Panthers (4-6) vs. Jets (4-6): Carolina will stick with their ground game. Panthers by 10
-Cardinals (7-3) vs. Titans (4-6): The magic continues, especially if Kurt Warner is too hurt or gets too hurt to play. Titans by 3
-Chiefs (3-7) vs. Chargers (6-4): SD on upset alert, but I won't pick against them in this matchup. Chargers by 8
-Jaguars (6-4) vs. 49ers (4-6): Jags don't travel well, and I look for San Fran to contain MJD. 49ers by 4
-Bears (4-6) vs. Vikings (9-1): Vikings have so many more weapons and are a much better football team. Vikings by 15
-Steelers (6-4) vs. Ravens (5-5): The Ravens aren't very good but I don't think the Steelers are either. Big Ben is two sacks away from the bench. If Ray Rice has a big game and Flacco doesn't blow it, the Ravens can pull it off at home. Ravens by 3
-Patriots (7-3) vs. Saints (10-0): I think the Patriots are the better team. Whoever gets to 10 points first wins this game, and I think it will be the visitors. Patriots by 7
Therefore, after this weekend the playoff picture will look like the following
AFC
Colts 11-0
Patriots 8-3
Bengals 8-3
Chargers 8-3
*Steelers, Jaguars, Ravens, Broncos all 6-5
NFC
Saints 10-1
Vikings 10-1
Cowboys 8-3
Cardinals 7-4
*Giants, Eagles, Packers all 7-4
Giants (6-4) vs. Broncos (6-4)
Two teams that started 5-0 and 6-0 but since are 1-8. Road game is no scare to the GMen, who win more often away from Giants Stadium. The fact that the Giants' best back this year, Ahmad Bradshaw is out which makes me nervous, especially since the Broncos have been so susceptible to the run. Orton is hurting, coming against a defense that has two sacks in four straight games is not good news for them. If the Giants can score red-zone touchdowns they will win this high-scoring affair. Giants by 7
Packers (6-4) vs. Lions (2-8)
I really want to take the Lions in an upset special but it takes a pass rush to beat the Packers. Green Bay will score a million points. Without Stafford and possibly Calvin Johnson, Detroit won't be able to keep up. Packers by 15
Raiders (3-7) vs. Cowboys (7-3)
The Cowboys haven't scored a point in the first three quarters two weeks in a row and only had one touchdown the game before that. The Raiders had a big game in Brad Gradkowski's starting debut. However, Cowboys' backs will run all over the Raiders. Cowboys will score on the first drive and Raiders will be dead early as Dallas wins their 4th Thanksgiving blowout in a row. Cowbys by 20
Later games:
-Bucs (1-9) vs. Falcons (5-5): Falcons need to win and the Bucs are awful. Falcons by 16
-Dolphins (5-5) vs. Bills (3-7): I'm on the Chad Henne bandwagon. Dolphins by 15
-Browns (1-9) vs. Bengals (7-3): Bengals got their wake up call. Bengals by 25
-Colts (10-0) vs. Texans (5-5): Coach Kubiak is not strong enough to rally his team in a short week coming off a bitter loss to beat the 10-0 Colts, no matter how much I think Indy is due. Colts by 6
-Redskins (3-7) vs. Eagles (6-4): I don't think the Redskins will win another game all year. Eagles by 8
-Seahawks (3-7) vs. Rams (1-9): Steven Jackson will have a big game and the Rams will keep it close, but if Seattle throws it well, they win. I think they will. Seahawks by 4
-Panthers (4-6) vs. Jets (4-6): Carolina will stick with their ground game. Panthers by 10
-Cardinals (7-3) vs. Titans (4-6): The magic continues, especially if Kurt Warner is too hurt or gets too hurt to play. Titans by 3
-Chiefs (3-7) vs. Chargers (6-4): SD on upset alert, but I won't pick against them in this matchup. Chargers by 8
-Jaguars (6-4) vs. 49ers (4-6): Jags don't travel well, and I look for San Fran to contain MJD. 49ers by 4
-Bears (4-6) vs. Vikings (9-1): Vikings have so many more weapons and are a much better football team. Vikings by 15
-Steelers (6-4) vs. Ravens (5-5): The Ravens aren't very good but I don't think the Steelers are either. Big Ben is two sacks away from the bench. If Ray Rice has a big game and Flacco doesn't blow it, the Ravens can pull it off at home. Ravens by 3
-Patriots (7-3) vs. Saints (10-0): I think the Patriots are the better team. Whoever gets to 10 points first wins this game, and I think it will be the visitors. Patriots by 7
Therefore, after this weekend the playoff picture will look like the following
AFC
Colts 11-0
Patriots 8-3
Bengals 8-3
Chargers 8-3
*Steelers, Jaguars, Ravens, Broncos all 6-5
NFC
Saints 10-1
Vikings 10-1
Cowboys 8-3
Cardinals 7-4
*Giants, Eagles, Packers all 7-4
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Football Power Report, Week 11
There's this thing called "It". Brady has it, Peyton has it, Favre has it, Ben Roethlisberger has it too. And then there's this guy who football critics don't like, they pick apart his mechanics, they say his style can't work in the NFL, laugh at his stats (completion percentage, QB rating, passing yards), even point to his lack of maturity. But there is no denying that Vince Young has "it" too. I've been listening to ESPN's Colin Cowherd, Steve Young, etc, and they say you can't build an NFL team around VY. Sure. But if you ignore VY's "it factor", you are missing out.
There are some good-to-great drop-back, pocket passers in the NFL that teams are built around. Jay Cutler, Tony Romo, Matt Schaub, Aaron Rodgers, and Donovan McNabb. Congratulations, they are good passers but not winners. They don't have "it". On a fourth quarter drive where you need a few points, I'll take Vince Young! 3rd and 5: Cutler will throw an INT, Romo and McNabb will throw an INT, Rodgers will get sacked. Schaub will get close but not close enough. Vince Young will run, and no one can stop it. He's done it his whole life. And oh, by the way, his passing has improved, and because of him Chris Johnson is unstoppable.
The Titans are the biggest story this year (neck-and-neck with Favre). For a team that started the season 0-6, all the talk has been "can they run the table?" That is amazing. Two players a month ago said they would win 10 straight and there is actually debate occurring about whether it's possible! Matt Millen and Steve Young actually made a bet about it on TV (even shook hands). Skip Bayless the hater thinks they can. They still have to play Arizona, the Colts and the Chargers, three of my Top 7 power ranked teams, and people are talking if they will win 6 more games. I love it.
Game o' the Week: So if you take the expectations for the game and compare it with the actual results of the game, the Lions vs. Browns game is the game of the year. You know, if you pretended the two quarterbacks were Montana and Elway, it was a good game. These two defenses are so bad it looked that way. I was nauseous when I saw the Browns, a team that hasn't scored 24 points all year, were up 24-3 in the first QUARTER. And yet Matthew Stafford comes back and leads a 4th quarter comeback line Montana himself. The biggest highlight of the game was the Browns calling a timeout before the last play, or at least the official claiming he heard a timeout called. Seeing Eric Mangini blow up really wraps up the Browns' season. Who else would have that luck: quarterback gets hurt so they bring in the backup, some phantom calls a timeout, giving Stafford an opportunity to jog out and give it one more shot. And he did it.
Crazy week: Raiders and Chiefs beat the Bengals and Steelers. Bad news for the Steelers; Big Ben got a concussion and his backup Charlie Batch broke his wrist. And more bad news: the physical Ravens are up next. Troy Palomalu is out for a while, they give up a big return score every week. Everybody expects them in the playoffs but I don't know... they play Baltimore twice and finish in Miami so don't punch your playoff tickets yet.
Speaking of playoffs: I am not a believer in the Colts, I think they are overrated, they get outplayed every week, had two chances to lose Sunday, they are very banged up, but if they win this week and the Jags lose, they clinch a playoff spot. All they do is win. I can't stand it.
How banged up are the Redskins? They have lost Cooley, Haynesworth, Portis, and Portis' backup Betts. Some of them will probably come back but it's getting hard to swallow. My bet is Jason Campbell goes down this week, but don't blame me if it does.
Here are my version of the Power Rankings.
1. Saints
2. Vikings
3. Patriots
4. Colts
5. Bengals
6. Cardinals
7. Chargers
8. Cowboys
9. Steelers
10. Giants
11. Eagles
12. Titans
13. Ravens
14. Texans
16. Panthers
17. Jaguars
18. Falcons
19. Packers
20. 49ers
21. Broncos
22. Bears
23. Jets
24. Seahawks
25. Chiefs
26. Redskins
27. Raiders
28. Bills
29. Bucs
30. Lions
31. Rams
32. Browns
There are some good-to-great drop-back, pocket passers in the NFL that teams are built around. Jay Cutler, Tony Romo, Matt Schaub, Aaron Rodgers, and Donovan McNabb. Congratulations, they are good passers but not winners. They don't have "it". On a fourth quarter drive where you need a few points, I'll take Vince Young! 3rd and 5: Cutler will throw an INT, Romo and McNabb will throw an INT, Rodgers will get sacked. Schaub will get close but not close enough. Vince Young will run, and no one can stop it. He's done it his whole life. And oh, by the way, his passing has improved, and because of him Chris Johnson is unstoppable.
The Titans are the biggest story this year (neck-and-neck with Favre). For a team that started the season 0-6, all the talk has been "can they run the table?" That is amazing. Two players a month ago said they would win 10 straight and there is actually debate occurring about whether it's possible! Matt Millen and Steve Young actually made a bet about it on TV (even shook hands). Skip Bayless the hater thinks they can. They still have to play Arizona, the Colts and the Chargers, three of my Top 7 power ranked teams, and people are talking if they will win 6 more games. I love it.
Game o' the Week: So if you take the expectations for the game and compare it with the actual results of the game, the Lions vs. Browns game is the game of the year. You know, if you pretended the two quarterbacks were Montana and Elway, it was a good game. These two defenses are so bad it looked that way. I was nauseous when I saw the Browns, a team that hasn't scored 24 points all year, were up 24-3 in the first QUARTER. And yet Matthew Stafford comes back and leads a 4th quarter comeback line Montana himself. The biggest highlight of the game was the Browns calling a timeout before the last play, or at least the official claiming he heard a timeout called. Seeing Eric Mangini blow up really wraps up the Browns' season. Who else would have that luck: quarterback gets hurt so they bring in the backup, some phantom calls a timeout, giving Stafford an opportunity to jog out and give it one more shot. And he did it.
Crazy week: Raiders and Chiefs beat the Bengals and Steelers. Bad news for the Steelers; Big Ben got a concussion and his backup Charlie Batch broke his wrist. And more bad news: the physical Ravens are up next. Troy Palomalu is out for a while, they give up a big return score every week. Everybody expects them in the playoffs but I don't know... they play Baltimore twice and finish in Miami so don't punch your playoff tickets yet.
Speaking of playoffs: I am not a believer in the Colts, I think they are overrated, they get outplayed every week, had two chances to lose Sunday, they are very banged up, but if they win this week and the Jags lose, they clinch a playoff spot. All they do is win. I can't stand it.
How banged up are the Redskins? They have lost Cooley, Haynesworth, Portis, and Portis' backup Betts. Some of them will probably come back but it's getting hard to swallow. My bet is Jason Campbell goes down this week, but don't blame me if it does.
Here are my version of the Power Rankings.
1. Saints
2. Vikings
3. Patriots
4. Colts
5. Bengals
6. Cardinals
7. Chargers
8. Cowboys
9. Steelers
10. Giants
11. Eagles
12. Titans
13. Ravens
14. Texans
16. Panthers
17. Jaguars
18. Falcons
19. Packers
20. 49ers
21. Broncos
22. Bears
23. Jets
24. Seahawks
25. Chiefs
26. Redskins
27. Raiders
28. Bills
29. Bucs
30. Lions
31. Rams
32. Browns
Monday, November 16, 2009
NFL Power Report, Week 10
This was such a strange week in the NFL. We learned almost nothing about any team. The bookend games (Bears/Niners, Ravens/Browns) were some of the worst games you'll see all year. The playoff picture only got muddier.
The Contenders
1. Saints. They had a chance to lose this game to the Rams; their last two drives were three-and-out, preceeded by a failed 4th down. An even bigger concern: Saints were OUTGAINED by the Rams!
2. Bengals. Respect is finally theirs as they sweep Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Let's see if Larry Johnson can maintain it.
3. Vikings. Almost 500 yards of offense, could have scored like 60 had it not been for two fumbles in the red zone and a failed 4th down attempt in the red zone.
4. Colts. Really banged up and a tough upcoming schedule spells several losses in the future. Peyton wasn't great; he threw that INT late in the 4th quarter that should have lost the game.
5. Patriots. They really outplayed the Colts in almost every way, that makes the loss all the more heartbreaking.
6. Cardinals. When Kurt Warner doesn't throw an interception they are 4-0. In the Cards' 3 losses, he threw nine. Beanie Wells did a good job running the ball.
7. Steelers. Poor special teams again, Troy Polomalu Big Ben the Statue didn't do anything.
8. Chargers. LT running wild is a welcome sign for a Chargers team that is last in rushing.
9. Cowboys. Almost got shut out against a team that gave up 38 to Tampa Bay last week? Roy Williams is a terrible receiver and teammate.
The Pretenders
10. Giants. Late-game meltdown of their own is a distant memory. With the Falcons and Eagles losing, the Giants actually gained some momentum in a bye week.
11. Eagles. Another concussion for Westbrook is bad, bad news.
12. Texans. Titans vs. Texans will be a little more entertaining Monday Night Football game.
13. Ravens. A win is a win, but they played awful against the Browns. 4/14 converting 3rd downs.
14. Falcons. Matt Ryan has not thrown more touchdowns than interceptions in his last 5 games.
15. Dolphins. Nearly 200 more yards on the ground, makes me wonder why Chad Henne threw the ball in the last two minutes leading by 6 (intercepted).
16. Panthers. Delhomme: 13 INTs the first six games, none the last three games.
17. Titans. Chris Johnson is a monster. VY is the right guy at quarterback right now. And the defense played big when it mattered most.
18. Jaguars. You DO NOT take a knee when you are losing the game! Imagine what would happen if the field goal attempt was blocked? Or if Tony Romo bobbles the hold?
19. Broncos. Two blowouts to good teams and then losing to the Redskins, one of the worst teams in the NFL drops you very far. I originally put them at 22. If they lose to the Chargers next week their season is over.
20. Packers. My favorite Joe Buck comment of the week: "Green Bay's offensive line is doing well; Rodgers has only been sacked twice so far." Two plays later came #3 (another later on).
21. 49ers. Forced four turnovers but only scored 10 points against a soft Bears d.
22. Bears. First and last game Cutler has 9 INTs but the Bears lost by a combined 10 points. Let's be honest: Cutler has no weapons around him. Forte has been awful, Hester is not a wide receiver, and there is no one else.
Start Planning for the Draft
23. Jets. This team looked really good after three games.
24. Seahawks. The Cardinals' offene was just too much for them. Not much relief in store with Adrian Peterson and Favre next.
25. Redskins. I'm very, very surprised they won. They really have no playmakers on offense.
26. Bills. Their best passer is Fred Jackson.
27. Bucs. Had the lead with ten seconds left for the second week in a row.
28. Chiefs. One game without Larry Johnson as a Chief and they are 1-0.
29. Rams. You can't deny that they are improving each week.
30. Raiders. Is it true that when they FINALLY benched JaMarcus Russell, his backup played even worse? (Where's Jeff Garcia when you need him?)
31. Lions. This game looked a schoolyard game where defenses get one blitz per set of downs. Matthew Stafford had no blockers the entire game. And when he did throw the ball well, the receivers dropped it.
32. Clowns. Colts had 5 offensive touchdowns Sunday night. Browns five offensive touchdowns in the last 15 games. I've never seen an offense this bad.
The Contenders
1. Saints. They had a chance to lose this game to the Rams; their last two drives were three-and-out, preceeded by a failed 4th down. An even bigger concern: Saints were OUTGAINED by the Rams!
2. Bengals. Respect is finally theirs as they sweep Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Let's see if Larry Johnson can maintain it.
3. Vikings. Almost 500 yards of offense, could have scored like 60 had it not been for two fumbles in the red zone and a failed 4th down attempt in the red zone.
4. Colts. Really banged up and a tough upcoming schedule spells several losses in the future. Peyton wasn't great; he threw that INT late in the 4th quarter that should have lost the game.
5. Patriots. They really outplayed the Colts in almost every way, that makes the loss all the more heartbreaking.
6. Cardinals. When Kurt Warner doesn't throw an interception they are 4-0. In the Cards' 3 losses, he threw nine. Beanie Wells did a good job running the ball.
7. Steelers. Poor special teams again, Troy Polomalu Big Ben the Statue didn't do anything.
8. Chargers. LT running wild is a welcome sign for a Chargers team that is last in rushing.
9. Cowboys. Almost got shut out against a team that gave up 38 to Tampa Bay last week? Roy Williams is a terrible receiver and teammate.
The Pretenders
10. Giants. Late-game meltdown of their own is a distant memory. With the Falcons and Eagles losing, the Giants actually gained some momentum in a bye week.
11. Eagles. Another concussion for Westbrook is bad, bad news.
12. Texans. Titans vs. Texans will be a little more entertaining Monday Night Football game.
13. Ravens. A win is a win, but they played awful against the Browns. 4/14 converting 3rd downs.
14. Falcons. Matt Ryan has not thrown more touchdowns than interceptions in his last 5 games.
15. Dolphins. Nearly 200 more yards on the ground, makes me wonder why Chad Henne threw the ball in the last two minutes leading by 6 (intercepted).
16. Panthers. Delhomme: 13 INTs the first six games, none the last three games.
17. Titans. Chris Johnson is a monster. VY is the right guy at quarterback right now. And the defense played big when it mattered most.
18. Jaguars. You DO NOT take a knee when you are losing the game! Imagine what would happen if the field goal attempt was blocked? Or if Tony Romo bobbles the hold?
19. Broncos. Two blowouts to good teams and then losing to the Redskins, one of the worst teams in the NFL drops you very far. I originally put them at 22. If they lose to the Chargers next week their season is over.
20. Packers. My favorite Joe Buck comment of the week: "Green Bay's offensive line is doing well; Rodgers has only been sacked twice so far." Two plays later came #3 (another later on).
21. 49ers. Forced four turnovers but only scored 10 points against a soft Bears d.
22. Bears. First and last game Cutler has 9 INTs but the Bears lost by a combined 10 points. Let's be honest: Cutler has no weapons around him. Forte has been awful, Hester is not a wide receiver, and there is no one else.
Start Planning for the Draft
23. Jets. This team looked really good after three games.
24. Seahawks. The Cardinals' offene was just too much for them. Not much relief in store with Adrian Peterson and Favre next.
25. Redskins. I'm very, very surprised they won. They really have no playmakers on offense.
26. Bills. Their best passer is Fred Jackson.
27. Bucs. Had the lead with ten seconds left for the second week in a row.
28. Chiefs. One game without Larry Johnson as a Chief and they are 1-0.
29. Rams. You can't deny that they are improving each week.
30. Raiders. Is it true that when they FINALLY benched JaMarcus Russell, his backup played even worse? (Where's Jeff Garcia when you need him?)
31. Lions. This game looked a schoolyard game where defenses get one blitz per set of downs. Matthew Stafford had no blockers the entire game. And when he did throw the ball well, the receivers dropped it.
32. Clowns. Colts had 5 offensive touchdowns Sunday night. Browns five offensive touchdowns in the last 15 games. I've never seen an offense this bad.
The Call
The game was one of the best we will see all year, but the last two minutes were the most bizarre moments in the Bill & Brady experience.
"The Call" was probably the wrong choice in that situation. But that was not the biggest mistake of the game for Belichik's Patriots. The number one reason the Patriots lost this game is because going into that drive, THEY DID NOT HAVE A PLAN!! Come on Tom Brady, what are you doing?! The timeout after the kickoff on 1st down was Dumbest Move Ever #1. Brady had been shredding the Colts defense all game, why the confusion now? You had like 10 minutes to prepare for your drive, and 1st and 10 at your 20 yard line with two minutes left up by 6 points is not uncharted territory! And all that extra time concocted the following play: inside hand-off to Kevin Faulk. Did you really need to burn a timeout for that?
Dumbest Move Ever #2: On 4th and 2, to win the game, you throw two yards to a tightly guarded Kevin Faulk. What else are the Colts expecting? A quick toss to your halfback... again, this was right after another timeout? That was your Must Have Guaranteed Success play?
Dumbest Move Ever #3: Electing not to punt would go here.
Dumbest Move Ever #4: Not going to Moss on that last series! Come on, they can't stop him. Do the last thing the Colts would expect: throw deep. The only way he wouldn't catch the ball is defensive pass interference, which would end the game anyway. You have to put the ball into the hands of your best weapon, Randy Moss.
Dumbest Move Ever #5: If you plan to go for it on 4th down, run the ball on 3rd down. Force Indy to take their last timeout or take the two-minute warning. Even if you don't convert on 3rd down, you get plenty of time to make an educated game-plan. This is combined with the actual play: pass to the sideline to a guy well defended. I can't quite recall, but was that Kevin Faulk again or Welker? Come on, go to Moss. Or at least throw it in the middle of the field. Allow some space for your teammate to make a play. That was a terrible play call on 3rd down. There was no way for the receiver to catch the ball and it was nearly a pick-6.
Yet even after all those dumb moves, there was no bobble on that catch. He had the ball CLEARLY beyond the 30 yard line. The ref claiming Faulk didn't have possession was a terrible call. That was a terrible spot. And in the biggest moment of the biggest game of the year, the refs have to at least check out that play again. If they were not sure, they should look. Let me repeat: HE HAD POSSESSION OF THE BALL!! And yet the place they spotted the ball was like 2 yards behind where he caught it! If it is one foot closer, it's a Patriots first down, the game is practically over, and Bill Belichick is not destroyed in the media. Bill could have challenged it, but they had no timeouts due to the Dumbest Move Ever #1.
I don't think it was the most bone-headed play I've ever seen to go for it. The Patriots have immense confidence in their offense. It is reasonable to assume they could gain two yards. You want to keep the ball out of the hands of Peyton Manning. It was an extremely close play! But the real reason the Patriots lost this game was that Bill Belichick and Tom Brady DID NOT HAVE A PLAN!
"The Call" was probably the wrong choice in that situation. But that was not the biggest mistake of the game for Belichik's Patriots. The number one reason the Patriots lost this game is because going into that drive, THEY DID NOT HAVE A PLAN!! Come on Tom Brady, what are you doing?! The timeout after the kickoff on 1st down was Dumbest Move Ever #1. Brady had been shredding the Colts defense all game, why the confusion now? You had like 10 minutes to prepare for your drive, and 1st and 10 at your 20 yard line with two minutes left up by 6 points is not uncharted territory! And all that extra time concocted the following play: inside hand-off to Kevin Faulk. Did you really need to burn a timeout for that?
Dumbest Move Ever #2: On 4th and 2, to win the game, you throw two yards to a tightly guarded Kevin Faulk. What else are the Colts expecting? A quick toss to your halfback... again, this was right after another timeout? That was your Must Have Guaranteed Success play?
Dumbest Move Ever #3: Electing not to punt would go here.
Dumbest Move Ever #4: Not going to Moss on that last series! Come on, they can't stop him. Do the last thing the Colts would expect: throw deep. The only way he wouldn't catch the ball is defensive pass interference, which would end the game anyway. You have to put the ball into the hands of your best weapon, Randy Moss.
Dumbest Move Ever #5: If you plan to go for it on 4th down, run the ball on 3rd down. Force Indy to take their last timeout or take the two-minute warning. Even if you don't convert on 3rd down, you get plenty of time to make an educated game-plan. This is combined with the actual play: pass to the sideline to a guy well defended. I can't quite recall, but was that Kevin Faulk again or Welker? Come on, go to Moss. Or at least throw it in the middle of the field. Allow some space for your teammate to make a play. That was a terrible play call on 3rd down. There was no way for the receiver to catch the ball and it was nearly a pick-6.
Yet even after all those dumb moves, there was no bobble on that catch. He had the ball CLEARLY beyond the 30 yard line. The ref claiming Faulk didn't have possession was a terrible call. That was a terrible spot. And in the biggest moment of the biggest game of the year, the refs have to at least check out that play again. If they were not sure, they should look. Let me repeat: HE HAD POSSESSION OF THE BALL!! And yet the place they spotted the ball was like 2 yards behind where he caught it! If it is one foot closer, it's a Patriots first down, the game is practically over, and Bill Belichick is not destroyed in the media. Bill could have challenged it, but they had no timeouts due to the Dumbest Move Ever #1.
I don't think it was the most bone-headed play I've ever seen to go for it. The Patriots have immense confidence in their offense. It is reasonable to assume they could gain two yards. You want to keep the ball out of the hands of Peyton Manning. It was an extremely close play! But the real reason the Patriots lost this game was that Bill Belichick and Tom Brady DID NOT HAVE A PLAN!
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Are you kidding me?
The number one story of the baseball playoffs was not about any team or player, it was the umpires. In nearly every single game of the divisional and league champions series (and even in the World Series)there was at least one very "questionable" call. You probably saw about a dozen of them. Is there a solution? You bet there is!
The NFL has had some issues of its own. I remember on Thanksgiving when the umpire messed up a coin flip. Last year an ump blew a huge call against the Chargers that almost kept them out of the playoffs (week 2 vs. Broncos). And you know what? The league is doing something about it. Instant replay began what, 5 years or so ago? Every year they tweak it a little more as it is needed. Just about all umpire controversy has left. And it has vastly improved the game.
In baseball two years ago they finally agreed to institute instant replay, in a ridiculously narrow scope: only on home run calls. In the World Series, it actually worked for that; ARod hit a shot that was changed from double to home run after a second look. But what about the Mauer shot off Melky's glove that bounced in fair territory and was called foul, or Swisher's slide into second that was called safe, or that crazy run-down double tag against the Angels, or the handful of bad calls in the Red Sox series? Yes, there have always been bad calls but this postseason the frequency and degree has been unprecedented. Yet the available technology has never been better.
Yet yesterday, baseball's general managers decided that it is not a problem.
I know there are some who have talked off line about the expansion of instant replay,” said Jimmie Lee Solomon, executive vice president of baseball operations in the commissioner’s office. “Right now, the commissioner doesn’t see any reason to consider it.” “link
Doesn't see any reason to consider it? How about the dozen of blown calls in the most important games of the season? Come on MLB, wake up! We are in 2009, not 1909. There is a dozen cameras at every game. Sitting at home we can confirm ten seconds after a horrible call has been made. We see the play from different angles and speeds. Why rely on human beings' memory of a bang-bang play viewed from one angle that may have been obstructed? We have the technology, go ahead and use it! It would also avoid almost every coach blow-up fiasco.
There are two argument against the use of replay. 1) It will slow the pace of the game. 2) How far do we go with it?
First, why is the only major sport that doesn't use a clock the only one concerned with time? Replay timeouts are not the culprit. Ever watch a game? Warm-up pitches, stepping out of the box, throws to first, bluffs to second, coaches arguing with the ump, catcher and/or coaching visits to the mound, pitching changes; there are a million breaks in action during a baseball game that have practically no impact on the outcome of a game. Secondly, how long would it take to get it right? Push a button or make a phone call to another umpire in a booth, sees one replay and confirms: "yeah, that was clearly a fair ball," and play resumes. Max of 20 seconds, which is about the same amount of time as between pitches. Instead, they stick with their initial decision and we talk about that bone-head play for a week. Getting the call right should be baseball's number one priority, not saving one minute of game time. Hey, even in tennis, players are granted a certain number of challenges that take 5 seconds to confirm, and then the controversy is over. Expanded replay would have a very minimal effect on the speed of the game and a dramatic improvement to the integrity.
As for the other problem, I don't see why we can't have wide expansion, much wider. My dad's opinion is get rid of the human element completely and have everything electronic. While I don't go that far, I think there is plenty of room for video replay. Keep balls ands strikes up to the home-plate umpire as it is. Fair or foul, plays at first, missing the base, plays at home, catch or trap, foul tip or swing-and-miss, hit-by-pitch, home runs, they should all be reviewable; maybe even check-swing calls. Get the calls right! Let's be fair! Limiting the availability to home run plays is like an M&Ms factory only producing yellow M&Ms.
How is it to be done? Like I said earlier, it can be done with an umpire in a central office monitoring all games or one on-site. Coach throws a red flag onto the field; that seems to work in football all right. Wait a few seconds for the call to be confirmed, then announce the decision. Or, the booth ump can initiate a challenge. If it's better, the field chief can go visit a booth like in football. After September 1, coaches are allowed one challenge per game. In the playoffs, two challenges are allowed. In the World Series, a booth ump can initiate any challenge since it is the only game on and the most important one to get right. It really doesn't matter, just that the opportunity is there to be right.
I admit that a little progress has been made. In the World Series, I saw umpires deliberating together for a call for the first time. That alone could have saved Tim McClelland a lot of embarrassment. Also, the home run call in the World Series was corrected and it may have changed the whole outcome of the series. But with all the resources available, give the umpires some support by taking them off the hook by expanding replay onto the field. After all, millions of people at home get the same luxury.
Sunday, November 8, 2009
Statement Week
Now that the baseball season is complete, we had our first weekend of football uninterrupted by anything else. Week 9 was full of matchups with teams in need of statement wins. Some missed.
1. Bengals vs. Ravens. For some reason, people still don't give the Bengals any respect. Coming into the weekend they were 3-0 in the division, including a win in Baltimore, and yet here they were 5-2 underdogs at home against 4-3 Ravens. Chad Ochocinco did the talking and his team backed him up. Cedric Benson racked up 117 yards against the once-proud defense, and the Bengals D held Flacco's team to 1 for 10 on third downs. That's two straight strong performances for the Bengals and four straight losses for the Ravens team that looked earlier in the year like one of the best.
2. Chargers vs. Giants. The GMen needed to make a statement not only for their own psyche but also to keep up with the rest of the division. After an interception returned to the 4 yard line with just a few minutes left the game seemed to be in the bag. Then the ugly Giants showed up: 1) Penalty yard #104. 2) Last in the league in red-zone scoring (they didn't even try for the endzone), 3) defense got lit up. If the Giants front office is paying Eli $100 million, how does he not even attempt a shot at the endzone on that last drive? Misstatement New York. Meanwhile, the Chargers came across the country, stayed in the game, and Philip Rivers runs a textbook two-minute-drill for the statement win.
3. Cardinals vs. Bears. Two 4-3 teams matched up following ugly losses last week, both in the fight for a playoff spot. The Bears' once-proud defense gave up 40+ points for the second time in three weeks. They simply could not stop Kurt Warner or the run. In the first half, the Cardinals ran 37 plays and gained 348 yards, about 9.5 per play (without any 75 yard bomb, too; slow and steady). Warner shrugged off a 6 turnover performance by throwing 5 TDs without a pick, and improved to 4-0 on the road and in control of the division. Big statement win for Arizona.
4. Cowboys vs. Eagles. Matchup for the division lead in Philly, and the Cowboys make the statement with their third big win in a row. Bad throws combined with dropped passes by the Eagles yielded a quick touchdown for the Cowboys. The defense did a good job containing DeSean Jackson (something that hasn't been done in a while). After Romo hit his new best friend Miles Austin, the Eagles, down by 7, opted to kick the field goal on fourth down. They never got the ball back. Whether Andy Reid made the right call or not, they lost by four instead of trying to tie. Kudos to the Cowboys defense for dropping McNabb on 3rd and 10 and to the Cowboys offense for not giving up the ball the last four and a half minutes.
5. Steelers vs. Broncos. After the Broncos opened the game with a field goal, they did nothing the rest of the game. Their last 10 drives including 7 punts and 3 interceptions. That's the Steelers defense that we are used to seeing. In the 4th quarter the Steelers actually relied on the run and it worked, as Mendenhall racked up 155 yards. There were as many Steeler fans in the crowd as those for the home team. Big statement win for the Steelers. The Denver honeymoon is over.
6. Colts vs. Texans. Many were calling this the most important game in the history of the Houston Texans franchise. With a respectable 5-3 record and Andre Johnson facing against a patch-up secondary, the opportunity to knock off the undefeated Colts was there. Despite falling behind early they took the lead to begin the 4th quarter and had two chances to win. Matt Schaub was intercepted with two minutes left, but the defense stopped the Colts three-and-out to give them another chance. But Kris Brown missed the 42-yard potential game-tying field goal at the buzzer as they missed making the statement. Colts are 8-0, but half of those wins (Jags, Dolphins, 49ers and Texans) are quite unimpressive. Their next five games will be much tougher.
7. Titans vs. 49ers. Another start for Vince Young brings another win for the Titans, this time with an impressive road win in San Francisco. VY is finally a true quarterback. Sitting on the bench watching the veteran Kerry Collins for a year and half was probably the best thing that could have happened to him. In his turnaround game last week he was effective but limited. This week he demonstrated progress with a couple of nice, deep throws. In his two starts this year he has completed 27 out of 37 passes. The other dimension he brings, which Kerry Collins did not, is his running threat; he scored the games first touchdown by himself. The good news is he is not the central figure in this offense. Chris Johnson is the star in town. Even with (another) 80 yard run reversed by replay, he finished with 135 yards rushing, now with 12 runs of 20+ yards (tops in the NFL). Along with DeSean Jackson and Maurice Jones-Drew, he's one of the most electrifying players in the league. The main reason the Titans have back-to-back wins after starting 0-6 is the defensive play. They gave up a ton of yards to the 49ers, as they did to the Jags, but the have forced 6 turnovers and given up none. This was a statement win showing that they are not as bad as their record shows.
8. Tampa Bay vs. Green Bay. Wow, do the Packers have issues. In the Battle of the Bays, the team from Wisconsin looked like the one without a win playing a rookie QB. Tampa is among the worst in the league in defense, yet they sacked Aaron Rodgers 6 times and forced 3 interceptions. That's not saying anything about Tampa but a lot about the Packers. Their quarterback protection is so bad it's becoming legendary. ARod has been sacked 37 times in 8 games, that's 10 more times than the next guy. Not only that, he has run for 214 yards (tops among quarterbacks). Those two stats combined mean he's always on the run! Tampa only had 11 sacks the first seven games and then 6 in game eight. Throw in a blocked punt return and the Bucs almost doubled their previous season high in points. For a team looking to make up ground in the division or fight for that last wild card spot, the Packers made a big misstatement.
Next week features some great matchups along with some dreadful ones.
Get Your Popcorn Ready
Patriots vs. Colts
Bengals vs. Steelers
Eagles vs. Chargers
Take a Nap Instead
Saints vs. Rams
Lions vs. Vikings
Chiefs vs. Raiders
Ravens vs. Browns
Thursday, November 5, 2009
NFL Midseason Report
A quarter of the NFL has played half their games and two teams will have played #9 this weekend, so it's a great time to take a look back and forward.
First Half MVP:
Peyton Manning, Colts. Dungy gone, missing key receivers, same results. Best passing per game, only 1 off TD mark, Second in QB rating, team undefeated. He's making Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie into stars.
Honorable mention #1: Drew Brees, Saints. True, his team is also undefeated, has more quality wins and he has slightly better numbers, but the reason his team is so much better is due to the improved play on defense, not Brees. He plays around the most talent on any offense. He's having an incredible season, but I give the slight edge to Peyton.
Honorable mention #2: Adrian Peterson. Vikings. He's the best running back in the league, no question. He is the reason Favre is so efficient and in the MVP mix himself. Just watch the games! I put him over Brett Favre in this debate.
First Half Coach: Josh McDaniels, Broncos. Denver was supposed to be one of the weakest teams in the league and now they are sitting at 6 wins with wins over Cowboys, Patriots, and Chargers and are among the top teams in the NFL.
Honorable Mention: Gregg Williams, Saints. He's an assistant who's done the best job in turning around a defensive joke into one of the league's best practically over night.
Defensive Player of the First Half: Darren Sharper, Saints. Leads the league with 7 interceptions and 3 defensive touchdowns.
Rookie of the Half: I don't really know. Percy Harvin of the Vikings.
Offensive Player of the Half: Chris Johnson, Titans. I had to mention him somewhere. CJ plays for a disappointing team, but he's a human highlight reel. Leads the league in rushing, averages almost 7 yards a carry and has 10 runs of over 20 yards. And that's as the only weapon on the offense that the opposing defense stacks up against. They lost their first 6 games, but the first three could have been wins.
Most Suprising Team: Denver Broncos.
Least Valuable Player of the Half: JaMarcus Russell, Raiders.
Worst Coach of the Half: Eric Mangini, Browns.
Most Disappointing Team: Washington Redskins.
Updated Playoff Preview:
NFC
Saints
Vikings
Cowboys
49ers
Falcons*
Eagles*
AFC
Colts
Patriots
Broncos
Bengals
Steelers*
Texans*
Saints over Vikings
Patriots over Steelers
SUPER BOWL
Patriots over Saints
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
NFL Notes, Week 8
(Nov 2)
A six-pack of observations from the weekend, outside of the Yankees' triumph in Philly. Notice the absence of a Brett Favre mention; I'm sick of hearing about nothing but him.
1. It's been a hard season being a Titans' fan. I've been calling for Vince Young for three weeks. Jeff Fisher has been reasonably reluctant to take out Kerry Collins because rightfully so, the defense is what the first 6 games. But this offense gets so stagnant; they scored only 9 points the last two games and opposing teams stack the defense against Chris Johnson. Vince Young brings that spark; he's a wild card. He won't throw the ball downfield, but he can pass for a first down, run for a first down, and keep the defense anxious. Of course, Chris Johnson provided the long ball so VY doesn't have to be Tom Brady. Hate him all you want, he's 19-11 as a starter, winning 6 of his last 7.
2. The Dolphins/Jets 3rd quarter was one of the most entertaining that I've ever seen. I changed the channel from the Giants implosion in hopes to see the Wildcat in action. It didn't work; the Jets stifled it it cold for the first three quarters. But in that 3rd quarter Ted Ginn was unreal. He danced around evading tackles like Barry Sanders. You would think that the Jets would try to correct the coverage after getting burned the first time. But along with those two big endzone-to-endzone returns, there was also Jason Taylor running a sack-fumble into the endzone, Mark Sanchez running into the endzone like Houdini and Braylon Edwards making a great goal line catch. It's amazing that the Dolphins got out-gained almost 4-1 and still won. And hey, the Jets botched three 2-pt conversion attempts. Kick the PATs and they can kick the field goal at the end to win.
3. I cannot figure out the Arizona Cardinals. I have incorrectly picked them every week. They are 4-3; 3-0 on the road and 1-3 at home. Jake Delhomme was wearing Kurt Warner's jersey and had his regular 6 turnover game (oh wait.....) Like the Giants a couple weeks ago, the #1 ranked defense against the run got lit up by the two-headed attack of DeAngelo and Jonathan Stewart. I cannot figure out this team. The one thing it does show me is how special Tom Brady is; the Pats don't use their ground game much either but still win big.
4. I thought the Lions had turned a corner and were on the upswing and then they get beat by a Rams team that looked like the worst group of players ever assembled together. Just to make it worse, it was a home game for Detroit. The good news is they should be better with Calvin Johnson. Only one more shot at win #2 with the Cleveland Clowns coming to town in 3 weeks, but clearly homefield is no advantage here.
5. Sad times for the New York Football Giants. Facing a team that got beat by the Raiders and outgained by the Redskins, sans-Westbrook this looked like a road W for the GMen. Instead it was another blowout. Eli is awful; I thought Bad Eli of 2006-first half of 2007 was dead and gone but he has made an ugly awakening. Brandon Jacobs looks like he's out of gas. As for the defense: Philly has one guy you have to look out for, DeSean Jackson, and somehow the Giants left him WIDE OPEN at the end of the first half. Okay, apparently they have other people to look for too, like a backup running back and a fullback with 4 carries on the season. A couple weeks ago I was going to write a piece on how great this franchise is and how they overcome losses (Tiki, Shockey, Strahan, Osi, Plaxico, Spagnolo) but they have serious issues on defense right now (and in the quarterback). When all is said and done, and they get past this funk their in, I still think the Giants are the best team in the NFC East, poised to go the farthest in the postseason.
6. However, now that Tony Romo is throwing to a guy named Miles, the Cowboys are looking good!
A six-pack of observations from the weekend, outside of the Yankees' triumph in Philly. Notice the absence of a Brett Favre mention; I'm sick of hearing about nothing but him.
1. It's been a hard season being a Titans' fan. I've been calling for Vince Young for three weeks. Jeff Fisher has been reasonably reluctant to take out Kerry Collins because rightfully so, the defense is what the first 6 games. But this offense gets so stagnant; they scored only 9 points the last two games and opposing teams stack the defense against Chris Johnson. Vince Young brings that spark; he's a wild card. He won't throw the ball downfield, but he can pass for a first down, run for a first down, and keep the defense anxious. Of course, Chris Johnson provided the long ball so VY doesn't have to be Tom Brady. Hate him all you want, he's 19-11 as a starter, winning 6 of his last 7.
2. The Dolphins/Jets 3rd quarter was one of the most entertaining that I've ever seen. I changed the channel from the Giants implosion in hopes to see the Wildcat in action. It didn't work; the Jets stifled it it cold for the first three quarters. But in that 3rd quarter Ted Ginn was unreal. He danced around evading tackles like Barry Sanders. You would think that the Jets would try to correct the coverage after getting burned the first time. But along with those two big endzone-to-endzone returns, there was also Jason Taylor running a sack-fumble into the endzone, Mark Sanchez running into the endzone like Houdini and Braylon Edwards making a great goal line catch. It's amazing that the Dolphins got out-gained almost 4-1 and still won. And hey, the Jets botched three 2-pt conversion attempts. Kick the PATs and they can kick the field goal at the end to win.
3. I cannot figure out the Arizona Cardinals. I have incorrectly picked them every week. They are 4-3; 3-0 on the road and 1-3 at home. Jake Delhomme was wearing Kurt Warner's jersey and had his regular 6 turnover game (oh wait.....) Like the Giants a couple weeks ago, the #1 ranked defense against the run got lit up by the two-headed attack of DeAngelo and Jonathan Stewart. I cannot figure out this team. The one thing it does show me is how special Tom Brady is; the Pats don't use their ground game much either but still win big.
4. I thought the Lions had turned a corner and were on the upswing and then they get beat by a Rams team that looked like the worst group of players ever assembled together. Just to make it worse, it was a home game for Detroit. The good news is they should be better with Calvin Johnson. Only one more shot at win #2 with the Cleveland Clowns coming to town in 3 weeks, but clearly homefield is no advantage here.
5. Sad times for the New York Football Giants. Facing a team that got beat by the Raiders and outgained by the Redskins, sans-Westbrook this looked like a road W for the GMen. Instead it was another blowout. Eli is awful; I thought Bad Eli of 2006-first half of 2007 was dead and gone but he has made an ugly awakening. Brandon Jacobs looks like he's out of gas. As for the defense: Philly has one guy you have to look out for, DeSean Jackson, and somehow the Giants left him WIDE OPEN at the end of the first half. Okay, apparently they have other people to look for too, like a backup running back and a fullback with 4 carries on the season. A couple weeks ago I was going to write a piece on how great this franchise is and how they overcome losses (Tiki, Shockey, Strahan, Osi, Plaxico, Spagnolo) but they have serious issues on defense right now (and in the quarterback). When all is said and done, and they get past this funk their in, I still think the Giants are the best team in the NFC East, poised to go the farthest in the postseason.
6. However, now that Tony Romo is throwing to a guy named Miles, the Cowboys are looking good!
World Series Preview
(Oct 28)
So we’re at a matchup of clearly the best team in the American League versus clearly the best team in the National League. The Phillies and Yankees are very similar teams. Yankees have the history, but Phillies have the short term history (defending champions). Both clubs led the league in home runs. Both clubs are led by the epitome of an ace: C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee (who were teammates a couple years ago in Cleveland). Sluggers who are hot at the right time (ARod and Howard) and good lineup top to bottom. World Series heroes of old (Pettitte and Pedro).
There are just a couple differences that tip in the Yankees’ favor. If the Yankees are trailing 4-3 in the 9th, I am sure not nervous with Brad Lidge on the mound (he already blew two saves against the Yankees in May). However, I can turn off the TV and go to bed if Rivera’s there with a 4-3 lead. The Yankees’ defense has been terrific; there is no better infield than Teixeira, Cano, Jeter and ARod. Chase Utley is having issues reminiscent of Chuck Knaublach (maybe not to that extent, but something is apparent). The Yankees’ great bullpen of Hughes, Joba, and Aceves hasn’t been great, but neither has Happ, Park, Madsen or Eyre. Homefield advantage is a huge factor. Yankees were the top team at home, and while Phillies were best road team, Yankees were only a couple games off that pace. Actually, the Angels had the same road record as the Phillies and they couldn’t steal one in New York.
Game 1, NYC: CC Sabathia vs. Cliff Lee. This will be a really really fun game to watch, as both pitchers throw strikes and control the game. Combined postseason stats: 47 innings, 5 earned runs allowed, 40 K, 6 walks. There won’t be many hits in this game, but there are likely to be a few balls that leave the ballpark. Prediction: Yankees 3, Phillies 2.
Game 2, NYC: Burnett vs. Martinez. Pedro pitched lights out against the Dodgers, but he won’t have thrown in a game for to full weeks. Of course, it was a similar situation when he made his last start and it sure didn’t hurt him then. You don’t know what you’ll get out of A.J. The Phillies’ feature big lefty bats in Utley, Howard, Ibanez, and switch-hitting Rollins and Victorino, but the righty Burnett limits lefties to a .217 average, 65 points lower than righties. Prediction: Yankees 6, Phillies 4.
Game 3, Philly: Hamels vs. Pettitte. He may be the reigning World Series MVP, but Hamels has been far from consistent this season and in three postseason starts has allowed 11 runs in 14+ innings. Pettitte is a warrior with a season ERA nearly a run lower on the road than at home. He has pitched well in his 3 October games. Prediction: Yankees 7, Phillies 4.
Game 4, Philly: Lee vs. Sabathia. Prediction: Phillies 5, Yankees 2.
Game 5, Philly. ? vs. Burnett. Prediction: Phillies 4, Yankees 3.
Game 6, NYC: Pettitte vs. Hamels(?). Prediction: Yankees 6, Phillies 3.
My World Series Prediction: Yankees in 6. MVP: Alex Rodriguez.
Phillies are a great team with a lot of firepower. I mean no disrespect to them or their fans. They are clearly among the top 2 teams in all of baseball. I would be really excited if the game went 7 so we could get another Sabathia vs. Lee matchup. In fact, this Phillies team has a better chance than any other team in MLB considering Cliff Lee and Pedro (big games in the past in NY), their potent lineup, and their experience gained from last year. But this Yankees' club is one of the best teams of the decade and it will be tough to beat them 4 times. CC up to 3 times, Pettitte twice, Rivera at the end, and Jeter, Teixiera and ARod (along with Damon, Posada, Matsui, and Cano) spell a lot of trouble to Philly Fanatics.
Two things to consider: New York and Philadelphia between Oct 28 and Nov 5 = likelihood of bad weather. We experienced this last year. And cold and/or rain can affect fielding. (It's time to shorten the season.)
The other thing we are forced to remember is that, as the last month has shown, a blown call by the umpire can seriously impact the outcome of a game. The ultimate solution is expanded instant replay. For the only sport that doesn’t even consider “time”, Bud Selig is sure concerned about “time”. Come on, how long would it take for a ump in a booth to look at replay of the Twins’ foul ball, the Angels’ play at 3rd? But as for now, why can’t umpires deliberate once in a while? Let’s be realistic, there are 6 or 7 umpires on the field! I’m sure at least 2 others got a good look at the play in question. Let a guy who blows a call off the hook by helping him fix the call! Yet baseball is fixed on leaving umps in their power trip and not allowing any opportunity to question the human element. The fact is that the integrity of the game is on the line, a little priority than the umpires’ pride.
So we’re at a matchup of clearly the best team in the American League versus clearly the best team in the National League. The Phillies and Yankees are very similar teams. Yankees have the history, but Phillies have the short term history (defending champions). Both clubs led the league in home runs. Both clubs are led by the epitome of an ace: C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee (who were teammates a couple years ago in Cleveland). Sluggers who are hot at the right time (ARod and Howard) and good lineup top to bottom. World Series heroes of old (Pettitte and Pedro).
There are just a couple differences that tip in the Yankees’ favor. If the Yankees are trailing 4-3 in the 9th, I am sure not nervous with Brad Lidge on the mound (he already blew two saves against the Yankees in May). However, I can turn off the TV and go to bed if Rivera’s there with a 4-3 lead. The Yankees’ defense has been terrific; there is no better infield than Teixeira, Cano, Jeter and ARod. Chase Utley is having issues reminiscent of Chuck Knaublach (maybe not to that extent, but something is apparent). The Yankees’ great bullpen of Hughes, Joba, and Aceves hasn’t been great, but neither has Happ, Park, Madsen or Eyre. Homefield advantage is a huge factor. Yankees were the top team at home, and while Phillies were best road team, Yankees were only a couple games off that pace. Actually, the Angels had the same road record as the Phillies and they couldn’t steal one in New York.
Game 1, NYC: CC Sabathia vs. Cliff Lee. This will be a really really fun game to watch, as both pitchers throw strikes and control the game. Combined postseason stats: 47 innings, 5 earned runs allowed, 40 K, 6 walks. There won’t be many hits in this game, but there are likely to be a few balls that leave the ballpark. Prediction: Yankees 3, Phillies 2.
Game 2, NYC: Burnett vs. Martinez. Pedro pitched lights out against the Dodgers, but he won’t have thrown in a game for to full weeks. Of course, it was a similar situation when he made his last start and it sure didn’t hurt him then. You don’t know what you’ll get out of A.J. The Phillies’ feature big lefty bats in Utley, Howard, Ibanez, and switch-hitting Rollins and Victorino, but the righty Burnett limits lefties to a .217 average, 65 points lower than righties. Prediction: Yankees 6, Phillies 4.
Game 3, Philly: Hamels vs. Pettitte. He may be the reigning World Series MVP, but Hamels has been far from consistent this season and in three postseason starts has allowed 11 runs in 14+ innings. Pettitte is a warrior with a season ERA nearly a run lower on the road than at home. He has pitched well in his 3 October games. Prediction: Yankees 7, Phillies 4.
Game 4, Philly: Lee vs. Sabathia. Prediction: Phillies 5, Yankees 2.
Game 5, Philly. ? vs. Burnett. Prediction: Phillies 4, Yankees 3.
Game 6, NYC: Pettitte vs. Hamels(?). Prediction: Yankees 6, Phillies 3.
My World Series Prediction: Yankees in 6. MVP: Alex Rodriguez.
Phillies are a great team with a lot of firepower. I mean no disrespect to them or their fans. They are clearly among the top 2 teams in all of baseball. I would be really excited if the game went 7 so we could get another Sabathia vs. Lee matchup. In fact, this Phillies team has a better chance than any other team in MLB considering Cliff Lee and Pedro (big games in the past in NY), their potent lineup, and their experience gained from last year. But this Yankees' club is one of the best teams of the decade and it will be tough to beat them 4 times. CC up to 3 times, Pettitte twice, Rivera at the end, and Jeter, Teixiera and ARod (along with Damon, Posada, Matsui, and Cano) spell a lot of trouble to Philly Fanatics.
Two things to consider: New York and Philadelphia between Oct 28 and Nov 5 = likelihood of bad weather. We experienced this last year. And cold and/or rain can affect fielding. (It's time to shorten the season.)
The other thing we are forced to remember is that, as the last month has shown, a blown call by the umpire can seriously impact the outcome of a game. The ultimate solution is expanded instant replay. For the only sport that doesn’t even consider “time”, Bud Selig is sure concerned about “time”. Come on, how long would it take for a ump in a booth to look at replay of the Twins’ foul ball, the Angels’ play at 3rd? But as for now, why can’t umpires deliberate once in a while? Let’s be realistic, there are 6 or 7 umpires on the field! I’m sure at least 2 others got a good look at the play in question. Let a guy who blows a call off the hook by helping him fix the call! Yet baseball is fixed on leaving umps in their power trip and not allowing any opportunity to question the human element. The fact is that the integrity of the game is on the line, a little priority than the umpires’ pride.
NFL Report, pre-Week 6
(Oct 15)
So I know there are a lot of Power Rankings out there, so I wanted to try something a little different, looking at teams game-by-game. I hope this takes out the arbitrary placements that some folks complain about, and it should give a better picture of how teams really are. So basically, overall record is obviously first. But also weighted are statement games and good/bad performances. (For example: the 49ers won a road division game against the Cardinals (+2), beat division foe Seahawks at home (+1), blew out the Rams (+1), played great in Minnesota in a losing effort (+1), and got killed at home by the Falcons (-1). Not all games are used (the Eagles beat the Bucs at home. So what? But the Giants shut them out on the road +1).
Formula: Overall record, +2 for good win, +1 for good performance, -1 for poor performance
1. Giants (@ Cowboys, Raiders, @ Bucs) 4
2. Saints (@ Eagles, Jets) 4
3. Vikings (49ers, Packers) 3
4. Colts (@ Cardinals, @ Titans) 2
5. Broncos (Pats, Cowboys, @ Raiders, @ Bengals) 3
6. Bengals (@ Packers, Steelers, @ Ravens, Broncos, @ Browns) 4
7. Bears (Steelers, @ Seahawks) 4
8. Eagles (@ Panthers) 2
9. Jets (@ Texans, Patriots) 4
10. Patriots (Falcons, Ravens) 4
11. Falcons (@ 49ers) 2
12. Ravens (@ Chargers, Browns, Bengals) 2
13. 49ers (@ Cardinals, Seahawks, @ Vikings, Rams, Falcons) 4
14. Seahawks (Rams, Jaguars) 3
15. Steelers (Chargers, @ Bengals, @ Detroit) 0
16. Cowboys 0
17. Chargers 0
18. Dolphins (Jets, Colts) 3
19. Packers (Bengals) -1
20. Cardinals (@ Jaguars, Colts) 1
21. Jaguars (@ Texans, Titans, @ Seahawks) 1
22. Texans (Jets, @ Titans, Jaguars) -1
23. Panthers (Eagles, @ Cowboys) -2
24. Lions (Redskins) 1
25. Titans (Texans) -1
26. Redskins (Rams, @ Lions, Bucs) -3
27. Bills (@ Patriots, @ Dolphins, Browns) -1
28. Browns (Bengals, @ Broncos, @ Ravens, @ Bills) -2
29. Raiders (Chargers, Broncos, @ Texans, @ Giants) -2
30. Chiefs (Raiders) -1
31. Buccaneers (Giants, @ Redskins) -2
32. Rams (@ Seahawks, @ Redskins, @ 49ers) -3
There is some room for adjustment, Seattle could/should be ahead of San Fran after winning by 41 while the 49ers lost by 35; the Eagles could probably beat anybody with a healthy McNabb and Westbrook, who are now.
Games o' the Week:
#1 Giants @ #2 Saints
#12 Ravens @ #3 Vikings
#7 Bears @ #11 Falcons
Upset Alert:
Texans over Bengals?
Lions over Packers?
Chiefs over Redskins?
So I know there are a lot of Power Rankings out there, so I wanted to try something a little different, looking at teams game-by-game. I hope this takes out the arbitrary placements that some folks complain about, and it should give a better picture of how teams really are. So basically, overall record is obviously first. But also weighted are statement games and good/bad performances. (For example: the 49ers won a road division game against the Cardinals (+2), beat division foe Seahawks at home (+1), blew out the Rams (+1), played great in Minnesota in a losing effort (+1), and got killed at home by the Falcons (-1). Not all games are used (the Eagles beat the Bucs at home. So what? But the Giants shut them out on the road +1).
Formula: Overall record, +2 for good win, +1 for good performance, -1 for poor performance
1. Giants (@ Cowboys, Raiders, @ Bucs) 4
2. Saints (@ Eagles, Jets) 4
3. Vikings (49ers, Packers) 3
4. Colts (@ Cardinals, @ Titans) 2
5. Broncos (Pats, Cowboys, @ Raiders, @ Bengals) 3
6. Bengals (@ Packers, Steelers, @ Ravens, Broncos, @ Browns) 4
7. Bears (Steelers, @ Seahawks) 4
8. Eagles (@ Panthers) 2
9. Jets (@ Texans, Patriots) 4
10. Patriots (Falcons, Ravens) 4
11. Falcons (@ 49ers) 2
12. Ravens (@ Chargers, Browns, Bengals) 2
13. 49ers (@ Cardinals, Seahawks, @ Vikings, Rams, Falcons) 4
14. Seahawks (Rams, Jaguars) 3
15. Steelers (Chargers, @ Bengals, @ Detroit) 0
16. Cowboys 0
17. Chargers 0
18. Dolphins (Jets, Colts) 3
19. Packers (Bengals) -1
20. Cardinals (@ Jaguars, Colts) 1
21. Jaguars (@ Texans, Titans, @ Seahawks) 1
22. Texans (Jets, @ Titans, Jaguars) -1
23. Panthers (Eagles, @ Cowboys) -2
24. Lions (Redskins) 1
25. Titans (Texans) -1
26. Redskins (Rams, @ Lions, Bucs) -3
27. Bills (@ Patriots, @ Dolphins, Browns) -1
28. Browns (Bengals, @ Broncos, @ Ravens, @ Bills) -2
29. Raiders (Chargers, Broncos, @ Texans, @ Giants) -2
30. Chiefs (Raiders) -1
31. Buccaneers (Giants, @ Redskins) -2
32. Rams (@ Seahawks, @ Redskins, @ 49ers) -3
There is some room for adjustment, Seattle could/should be ahead of San Fran after winning by 41 while the 49ers lost by 35; the Eagles could probably beat anybody with a healthy McNabb and Westbrook, who are now.
Games o' the Week:
#1 Giants @ #2 Saints
#12 Ravens @ #3 Vikings
#7 Bears @ #11 Falcons
Upset Alert:
Texans over Bengals?
Lions over Packers?
Chiefs over Redskins?
Baseball Playoff Predictions
(Oct 7)
Yankees in 3 over Twins
Red Sox in 5 over Angels
Cardinals in 3 over Dodgers
Phillies in 5 over Rockies
Yankees in 5 over Red Sox
Cardinals in 6 over Philies
World Series
Yankees over Cardinals in 6
Yankees in 3 over Twins
Red Sox in 5 over Angels
Cardinals in 3 over Dodgers
Phillies in 5 over Rockies
Yankees in 5 over Red Sox
Cardinals in 6 over Philies
World Series
Yankees over Cardinals in 6
NFL Power Report, Week 3
(Sept 29)
I love the NFL. It is so nice to have a week to look at the previous weekend, gear up for the next week, and then bang! 16 games. I love baseball, but when teams play everyday for 6 months I really get burned out.
After 3 weeks of games it is clear that quarterback concerns are the overarching theme and indicator of good teams vs. bad teams. Browns, Rams, Bucs, Raiders, Dolphins, Panthers, and Seahawks all have very clear quarterback concerns, and as a result they have a combined 1 win. You might be able to throw the Chiefs and Redskins in there too. On the other side: Giants (Eli), Ravens (Flacco), Saints (Brees), Colts (Peyton), Jets (Sanchez), and Vikings (Favre) (and even the Broncos with Orton) have had great QB production that haven't lapsed, and are all undefeated as a result.
Best Moment: Brett Favre, despite heavy pressure, throws a perfect pass 32 yards, hitting Greg Lewis in the back of the endzone to win the game.
Best Individual Performance: Peyton Manning
Best Team Performance: New York Giants
Worst Team Performance: Buccaneers (1 first down in the first 3 quarters?).Special mention to Panthers, Browns, and Raiders
Worst Individual Performance: JaMarcus Russell
Upset o’ the Week: Lions over Redskins
The Great
1. Giants. Jacobs and Bradshaw finally got rumbling, Eli played error-free football, and the beat-up defense shut down the Bucs (who did score 41 in their first two) and the Giants show they are still the most complete team in the league.
2. Ravens. As expected, the Ravens trashed the hapless Browns on offense and defense. They have dominated.
3. Saints. The Bills kept them close for three quarters, but the Bills only scored once. That’s a good statement by the Saints’ D.
4. Colts. Peyton’s as good as he’s ever been, passing for over 300 yards in all 3 games, and the tired defense beat up Kurt Warner all night for their first very-convincing win of the year.
5. Jets. Mark Sanchez’ J-E-T-S have 3 big wins already, and their defense under new-head coach Rex Ryan is really, really good.
6. Vikings. Favre is the hero in his first new-home game in Minnesota, eclipsing 300 yards along with the week’s top highlight. There is no way that Tavaris Jackson makes that pass.
7. Chargers. Philip Rivers is carrying this team despite a pathetic 2.8 yard per carry ground game (lowest in NFL). That won’t get any better against the Steelers.
8. Patriots. They finally showed some balance in the offense (pass:rush = 42:39) and it results in their first great game. But four field goals in the red zone is disappointing. The defense stopped a very good Falcons team.
9. Falcons. The Patriots took Tony Gonzalez out of the game, and the Dirty Birds converted only 2 of 9 3rd downs. The defense couldn’t put pressure on Tom Brady (no sacks, no turnovers).
Pretty Good
10. 49ers. Oh, how that last play from Favre had to break their hearts, but Mike Singletary’s team showed once again that they are not afraid of anyone and played one heck of a game, despite losing their star on offense early.
11. Bears. Nice win in a hostile environment, the Bears kept the Seahawks out of the end zone after the first drive, and that’s the way to make a comeback.
12. Eagles. Kevin Kolb had a good confidence game and McNabb will be back after the bye, so what will they do with 4 quarterbacks who all want to play? Oh well, next three are against TB, Oakland, and Washington. That ought to give the defense some time to figure things out.
13. Broncos. Nobody takes them seriously yet but hey, they’ve allowed only 16 points in 3 games. Kyle Orton has a TD pass and no INTs in each game so far, and they have two good running backs. A win at home against the Cowboys should earn them some respect.
14. Bengals. How about them Bengals! Palmer directed a great 16 play drive (including converting a 4th and 10) capped with a TD pass in the final seconds for a great division win.
15. Packers. Offense finally got rolling, thanks to a game in St Louis. ARod connected for three nice long throws, running game was good. It’s a confidence booster, but it doesn’t really show us much. We’ll find out more against the Vikings this week.
16. Cowboys. They have the best ground game in the league (in total yards), even without Marion Barber. As long as Tony Romo doesn’t blow it, the Cowboys will do pretty well.
17. Steelers. Had a big lead and they can only manage 12 rushing yards in the 4th quarter? That is not gonna get the job done. They better figure out their o-line and ground game if they want to make the playoffs.
18. Cardinals. When this team loses, they lose ugly. They have no ground game.
19. Titans. I don’t think they are this bad, but they are already 3 games behind the Colts. Maybe it’s time to see what Vince Young can do. Of course the real problem is pass defense, but Collins isn’t doing anything helpful.
Bad
20. Seahawks. Coach Jim Mora is a moron trying to lose his job. You can’t hang out the kicker when the offense can’t get in the end zone. He made four field goals for you. Touchdowns = wins. Seneca Wallace is not a winner, but he could sure use some help on offense.
21. Bills. They stopped the Drew Brees air show but their only score came on a fake field goal. Owens caught zero balls.
22. Jaguars. It was the Maurice Jones-Drew show on Sunday. No air attack means I see the Titans getting their first win this week in Jacksonville.
23. Texans. Matt Schaub is a great fantasy quarterback, but this defense can’t tackle and gives up way too many big plays. Star opposing running backs have each scored 3 TDs the last two weeks against the Texans.
24. Panthers. 4 straight three-and-outs followed by a pick-6 and then fumble in the second half. What did Coach Fox say at halftime because it sure didn’t work! Is the Jake Delhomme era in Carolina over?
25. Dolphins. Quarterback is the most important position in football and the Fins are left with Chad Henne the rest of the way. Pennington is only good for one year, anyway. At least they have the #3 running team in the NFL.
26. Lions. Congratulations, Detroit. You host the Rams and Browns in November, so more wins are within grasp.
The Very, Very Bad
27. Raiders. JaMarcus Russell is terrible and not getting any better. He’s only completed 41% of his passes and has a QB rating under 40. I bet the Raiders wish they hadn’t let Jeff Garcia walk away.
28. Chiefs. No offense, no defense.
29. Buccaneers. Most teams gained more yards on a single drive than the Bucs did in the whole game. Weren’t the Giants even missing a few key defensive players?
30. Redskins. They allowed a 99-yard touchdown drive after their first possession. They converted only two 3rd downs while the Lions converted 10. Their only good playmaker is a tight end. The coach will be run out of town. This season will be disastrous.
31. Rams. Two first quarter fumbles in their own red zone was not a good start for a team on its way to their 13th straight loss.
32. Browns. This offense hasn’t got a clue.
I love the NFL. It is so nice to have a week to look at the previous weekend, gear up for the next week, and then bang! 16 games. I love baseball, but when teams play everyday for 6 months I really get burned out.
After 3 weeks of games it is clear that quarterback concerns are the overarching theme and indicator of good teams vs. bad teams. Browns, Rams, Bucs, Raiders, Dolphins, Panthers, and Seahawks all have very clear quarterback concerns, and as a result they have a combined 1 win. You might be able to throw the Chiefs and Redskins in there too. On the other side: Giants (Eli), Ravens (Flacco), Saints (Brees), Colts (Peyton), Jets (Sanchez), and Vikings (Favre) (and even the Broncos with Orton) have had great QB production that haven't lapsed, and are all undefeated as a result.
Best Moment: Brett Favre, despite heavy pressure, throws a perfect pass 32 yards, hitting Greg Lewis in the back of the endzone to win the game.
Best Individual Performance: Peyton Manning
Best Team Performance: New York Giants
Worst Team Performance: Buccaneers (1 first down in the first 3 quarters?).Special mention to Panthers, Browns, and Raiders
Worst Individual Performance: JaMarcus Russell
Upset o’ the Week: Lions over Redskins
The Great
1. Giants. Jacobs and Bradshaw finally got rumbling, Eli played error-free football, and the beat-up defense shut down the Bucs (who did score 41 in their first two) and the Giants show they are still the most complete team in the league.
2. Ravens. As expected, the Ravens trashed the hapless Browns on offense and defense. They have dominated.
3. Saints. The Bills kept them close for three quarters, but the Bills only scored once. That’s a good statement by the Saints’ D.
4. Colts. Peyton’s as good as he’s ever been, passing for over 300 yards in all 3 games, and the tired defense beat up Kurt Warner all night for their first very-convincing win of the year.
5. Jets. Mark Sanchez’ J-E-T-S have 3 big wins already, and their defense under new-head coach Rex Ryan is really, really good.
6. Vikings. Favre is the hero in his first new-home game in Minnesota, eclipsing 300 yards along with the week’s top highlight. There is no way that Tavaris Jackson makes that pass.
7. Chargers. Philip Rivers is carrying this team despite a pathetic 2.8 yard per carry ground game (lowest in NFL). That won’t get any better against the Steelers.
8. Patriots. They finally showed some balance in the offense (pass:rush = 42:39) and it results in their first great game. But four field goals in the red zone is disappointing. The defense stopped a very good Falcons team.
9. Falcons. The Patriots took Tony Gonzalez out of the game, and the Dirty Birds converted only 2 of 9 3rd downs. The defense couldn’t put pressure on Tom Brady (no sacks, no turnovers).
Pretty Good
10. 49ers. Oh, how that last play from Favre had to break their hearts, but Mike Singletary’s team showed once again that they are not afraid of anyone and played one heck of a game, despite losing their star on offense early.
11. Bears. Nice win in a hostile environment, the Bears kept the Seahawks out of the end zone after the first drive, and that’s the way to make a comeback.
12. Eagles. Kevin Kolb had a good confidence game and McNabb will be back after the bye, so what will they do with 4 quarterbacks who all want to play? Oh well, next three are against TB, Oakland, and Washington. That ought to give the defense some time to figure things out.
13. Broncos. Nobody takes them seriously yet but hey, they’ve allowed only 16 points in 3 games. Kyle Orton has a TD pass and no INTs in each game so far, and they have two good running backs. A win at home against the Cowboys should earn them some respect.
14. Bengals. How about them Bengals! Palmer directed a great 16 play drive (including converting a 4th and 10) capped with a TD pass in the final seconds for a great division win.
15. Packers. Offense finally got rolling, thanks to a game in St Louis. ARod connected for three nice long throws, running game was good. It’s a confidence booster, but it doesn’t really show us much. We’ll find out more against the Vikings this week.
16. Cowboys. They have the best ground game in the league (in total yards), even without Marion Barber. As long as Tony Romo doesn’t blow it, the Cowboys will do pretty well.
17. Steelers. Had a big lead and they can only manage 12 rushing yards in the 4th quarter? That is not gonna get the job done. They better figure out their o-line and ground game if they want to make the playoffs.
18. Cardinals. When this team loses, they lose ugly. They have no ground game.
19. Titans. I don’t think they are this bad, but they are already 3 games behind the Colts. Maybe it’s time to see what Vince Young can do. Of course the real problem is pass defense, but Collins isn’t doing anything helpful.
Bad
20. Seahawks. Coach Jim Mora is a moron trying to lose his job. You can’t hang out the kicker when the offense can’t get in the end zone. He made four field goals for you. Touchdowns = wins. Seneca Wallace is not a winner, but he could sure use some help on offense.
21. Bills. They stopped the Drew Brees air show but their only score came on a fake field goal. Owens caught zero balls.
22. Jaguars. It was the Maurice Jones-Drew show on Sunday. No air attack means I see the Titans getting their first win this week in Jacksonville.
23. Texans. Matt Schaub is a great fantasy quarterback, but this defense can’t tackle and gives up way too many big plays. Star opposing running backs have each scored 3 TDs the last two weeks against the Texans.
24. Panthers. 4 straight three-and-outs followed by a pick-6 and then fumble in the second half. What did Coach Fox say at halftime because it sure didn’t work! Is the Jake Delhomme era in Carolina over?
25. Dolphins. Quarterback is the most important position in football and the Fins are left with Chad Henne the rest of the way. Pennington is only good for one year, anyway. At least they have the #3 running team in the NFL.
26. Lions. Congratulations, Detroit. You host the Rams and Browns in November, so more wins are within grasp.
The Very, Very Bad
27. Raiders. JaMarcus Russell is terrible and not getting any better. He’s only completed 41% of his passes and has a QB rating under 40. I bet the Raiders wish they hadn’t let Jeff Garcia walk away.
28. Chiefs. No offense, no defense.
29. Buccaneers. Most teams gained more yards on a single drive than the Bucs did in the whole game. Weren’t the Giants even missing a few key defensive players?
30. Redskins. They allowed a 99-yard touchdown drive after their first possession. They converted only two 3rd downs while the Lions converted 10. Their only good playmaker is a tight end. The coach will be run out of town. This season will be disastrous.
31. Rams. Two first quarter fumbles in their own red zone was not a good start for a team on its way to their 13th straight loss.
32. Browns. This offense hasn’t got a clue.
NFL Week 2 Wrap up / Week 3 Preview
(Sept 24)
The games ended days ago, but there’s still stuff to talk about all over the place. Last week was week of the Road Warriors, with the Giants, Cardinals, Ravens, Saints, Texans and Bengals all winning big road games. 49ers are 2-0 with big wins against their division rivals.
Most Impressive Individual Performance: 3-way tie
This gets its own paragraph. Frank Gore ran for 207 yards with 80 and 79 coming on touchdown runs. Kurt Warner completed 24 of 26 passes with 2 TDs and no picks in a big cross-country road win. Chris Johnson, probably the best of the week, was electric for 3 quarters, running for a 91- and 57-yard TDs and a 69-yard catch-n-run (284 combined yards), but doing nothing in the 4th quarter when his team needed plays.
Best Moment: Ray Lewis crushing Darren Sproles on 4th and 2 to seal the big road win for the Ravens. That was one of the best hits you’ll see all year.
Worst Individual Performance: Tony Romo.
First big game of the year, and the Cowboy’s celebrity quarterback reasserts himself as the biggest choke artist in the NFL, throwing for only 127 yards in 29 attempts with 3 INTs, in the home opener loss. Special mention to JaMarcus Russell, who, with 3 minutes left in the game, had completed only 3 passes for 43 yards. Threw no picks and won the game, but finished just 7 of 24 (29%).
Most Impressive Team Performance: Gotta go with the New York Jets again.
Most Disappointing Team Performance: New England Patriots. Special mention to Washington Redskins.
Biggest Upset: Bengals over Green Bay Packers. Special mention to Texans over Titans.
Top 5 Teams
1. Baltimore Ravens
2. New York Giants
3. New Orleans Saints
4. Minnesota Vikings
5. Atlanta Falcons (can that be right, 4 from the NFC???)
WEEK 3 PREVIEW
Best Matchups:
49ers at Minnesota
Falcons at New England
Upset Alerts:
Detroit Lions could win their first game in like 2 years against the Redskins.
I don’t believe New Orleans Saints are this good; I like the Bills pulling the upset.
Bungles could beat the champs (Steelers).
Stone Cold Picks (3-0 last week)
Titans over the Jets
Minnesota over the 49ers
Oakland over Denver
Brady Quinn won’t finish the game against the Ravens, either getting hurt or benched first
The games ended days ago, but there’s still stuff to talk about all over the place. Last week was week of the Road Warriors, with the Giants, Cardinals, Ravens, Saints, Texans and Bengals all winning big road games. 49ers are 2-0 with big wins against their division rivals.
Most Impressive Individual Performance: 3-way tie
This gets its own paragraph. Frank Gore ran for 207 yards with 80 and 79 coming on touchdown runs. Kurt Warner completed 24 of 26 passes with 2 TDs and no picks in a big cross-country road win. Chris Johnson, probably the best of the week, was electric for 3 quarters, running for a 91- and 57-yard TDs and a 69-yard catch-n-run (284 combined yards), but doing nothing in the 4th quarter when his team needed plays.
Best Moment: Ray Lewis crushing Darren Sproles on 4th and 2 to seal the big road win for the Ravens. That was one of the best hits you’ll see all year.
Worst Individual Performance: Tony Romo.
First big game of the year, and the Cowboy’s celebrity quarterback reasserts himself as the biggest choke artist in the NFL, throwing for only 127 yards in 29 attempts with 3 INTs, in the home opener loss. Special mention to JaMarcus Russell, who, with 3 minutes left in the game, had completed only 3 passes for 43 yards. Threw no picks and won the game, but finished just 7 of 24 (29%).
Most Impressive Team Performance: Gotta go with the New York Jets again.
Most Disappointing Team Performance: New England Patriots. Special mention to Washington Redskins.
Biggest Upset: Bengals over Green Bay Packers. Special mention to Texans over Titans.
Top 5 Teams
1. Baltimore Ravens
2. New York Giants
3. New Orleans Saints
4. Minnesota Vikings
5. Atlanta Falcons (can that be right, 4 from the NFC???)
WEEK 3 PREVIEW
Best Matchups:
49ers at Minnesota
Falcons at New England
Upset Alerts:
Detroit Lions could win their first game in like 2 years against the Redskins.
I don’t believe New Orleans Saints are this good; I like the Bills pulling the upset.
Bungles could beat the champs (Steelers).
Stone Cold Picks (3-0 last week)
Titans over the Jets
Minnesota over the 49ers
Oakland over Denver
Brady Quinn won’t finish the game against the Ravens, either getting hurt or benched first
NFL Power Report, Week 1 edition
(Sept. 15)
Looking at the final boxscores, it looked like each game went the way it was supposed to, but that was thanks to a lot of great comeback drives in the two-minute drill by the great quarterbacks in the league. In summary, the good teams find a way to win and the bad teams find a way to lose.
Most Impressive Individual Performance: Mark Sanchez
Best Moment: Brandon Stokley’s game winning catch
Worst Individual Performance: Jake Delhomme
Most Impressive Team Performance: New York Jets
Most Disappointing Team Performance: Houston Texans
Injury of the Week: Brian Urlacher
After just one week it’s hard to accurately differentiate teams #1-5, but since the Steelers are the champs they will start at the top.
Elite Tier
1. Steelers: They may be the reigning champions and 1-0 on the season, but this offense led by Big Ben will have to do better than run, run, sack, punt. Roethlisberger may end the season in a wheelchair.
2. Patriots: Brady’s typical Pats: 54 pass plays, 23 rushing. Not a pretty game (0-2 on 4th down, missed FG, two failed 2-pt conversions, two terrible roughing the passer calls), but they showed on the last two drives that when they are focused, you can’t stop this offense. The defense played pretty well, too.
3. Giants: No Plax, no problem. Manning to Manningham has a nice ring to it. Welcome back Osi, and welcome to the endzone.
4. Vikings: Adrian Peterson began his march to the MVP. Favre looks like a kid again hitting Percy Harvin for a touchdown.
5. Ravens: 85 plays, 500 yards of offense, 2:1 time of possession. The Ravens picked up where they left of last year by controlling the ball for the whole game, and that way wins most games.
6. Falcons: Tony Gonzalez fits very nicely with this offense. +4 in the turnover battle means you win.
7. Eagles: 31 points at halftime thanks to a 5-series stretch with an interception, fumble recovery for a touchdown, punt return for a touchdown, interception, three-and-out punt. The offense never had far to go. However, an injured McNabb in Week 1 is something to be concerned about.
8. Chargers: They got outplayed most of the game, but like the other great quarterbacks this week, Rivers made the plays in the spotlight when it mattered most.
9. Colts: Reggie Wayne had a field day; Peyton looks fine without Harrison. Good start for Jim Caldwell.
10. Titans: Defense shows that without Haynesworth they are still one of the best units in the league. The offense was non-existent in the second half when it mattered. In a tight, low-scoring game, Bironas has got to make those kicks.
Middle o' the Pack
11. Cowboys: No T.O., no problem. Romo has career day, completing long passes to three different receivers. The defense was rather generous.
12. Seahawks: It’s nice to have all the pieces back together.
13. Saints: Matthew Stafford got a free clinic in throwing the ball in the NFL from Drew Brees on Sunday. Touchdowns all around!
14. Packers: Like the Steelers, Aaron Rodgers did nothing for almost the entire game but made the big play when it mattered most and that’s what he’ll be remembered for today.
15. Jets: Sanchez played like a veteran in his debut. If he continues to play like this, the Jets are a playoff team.
16. Broncos: Stokley’s miracle play will be one of the best of the season.
17. Bears: Cutler had a debut to forget: 47% passing, four interceptions and two sacks. The defense kept the Bears in the game despite it all. It doesn’t get any easier next week against Pittsburgh. This team is in trouble with no Urlacher.
18. Texans: What happened to the offense?
19. Buccaneers: It’s nice to see Cadillac Williams back on the field and playing well. Impressive loss for the offense; Byron Leftwich and Williams lead the team to 450 yards of offense. But it felt like I was watching a video game when the Cowboys were on the field.
20. Redskins: Good news: Rams come to town next week.
21. 49ers: Singletary’s Niners stop the Cardinals on 4th down to get a nice rivalry win on the road in the desert despite only 21 yards on the ground.
22. Cardinals: Fitzgerald beat the Madden Curse in Week 1, and the defense stuffed the Niners for most of the game, but Tim Hightower should not be the leading receiver if they expect to win.
23. Bills: Trent Edwards and Fred Jackson looked good and the defense did its job for 57 minutes, but you didn’t actually think that the Bills would win Week 1 in New England, did you?
24. Bengals: That will be one of the most heart-breaking losses of the season. But until that last play, the defense got a great start to the season.
25. Panthers: Jake Delhomme picked up right where he left off, a miserable performance at home. And then losing backup Josh McCown spells bigger trouble for the Panthers this season. They should still be around .500 with their power running game.
Bottom Feeders
26. Raiders: Played hard and should have come away with a win, which makes their 11th straight loss on prime time TV all the more painful.
27. Jaguars: They hung tough in Indy, but the Jags just aren’t a playoff team.
28. Dolphins: The team looked more like the 1-15 team from 2007 than the team that protected the ball so well last year.
29. Browns: Brady Quinn had the biggest blooper of the week. Cribb’s return was a real nice play.
30a. Chiefs: If they want to win a game this year the defense better show up. The Ravens marched up and down the field at will.
30b. Lions: Now that the Lions D got torched in the air, they get a visit from Adrian Peterson next week.
32c. Rams: Steve Spagnuolo is gonna regret leaving the Giants.
Exciting Things Coming Up Next Week:
Giants @ Dallas
Ravens @ San Diego
Saints @ Philadelphia
Seahawks @ San Francisco
Patriots @ New York Jets
Looking at the final boxscores, it looked like each game went the way it was supposed to, but that was thanks to a lot of great comeback drives in the two-minute drill by the great quarterbacks in the league. In summary, the good teams find a way to win and the bad teams find a way to lose.
Most Impressive Individual Performance: Mark Sanchez
Best Moment: Brandon Stokley’s game winning catch
Worst Individual Performance: Jake Delhomme
Most Impressive Team Performance: New York Jets
Most Disappointing Team Performance: Houston Texans
Injury of the Week: Brian Urlacher
After just one week it’s hard to accurately differentiate teams #1-5, but since the Steelers are the champs they will start at the top.
Elite Tier
1. Steelers: They may be the reigning champions and 1-0 on the season, but this offense led by Big Ben will have to do better than run, run, sack, punt. Roethlisberger may end the season in a wheelchair.
2. Patriots: Brady’s typical Pats: 54 pass plays, 23 rushing. Not a pretty game (0-2 on 4th down, missed FG, two failed 2-pt conversions, two terrible roughing the passer calls), but they showed on the last two drives that when they are focused, you can’t stop this offense. The defense played pretty well, too.
3. Giants: No Plax, no problem. Manning to Manningham has a nice ring to it. Welcome back Osi, and welcome to the endzone.
4. Vikings: Adrian Peterson began his march to the MVP. Favre looks like a kid again hitting Percy Harvin for a touchdown.
5. Ravens: 85 plays, 500 yards of offense, 2:1 time of possession. The Ravens picked up where they left of last year by controlling the ball for the whole game, and that way wins most games.
6. Falcons: Tony Gonzalez fits very nicely with this offense. +4 in the turnover battle means you win.
7. Eagles: 31 points at halftime thanks to a 5-series stretch with an interception, fumble recovery for a touchdown, punt return for a touchdown, interception, three-and-out punt. The offense never had far to go. However, an injured McNabb in Week 1 is something to be concerned about.
8. Chargers: They got outplayed most of the game, but like the other great quarterbacks this week, Rivers made the plays in the spotlight when it mattered most.
9. Colts: Reggie Wayne had a field day; Peyton looks fine without Harrison. Good start for Jim Caldwell.
10. Titans: Defense shows that without Haynesworth they are still one of the best units in the league. The offense was non-existent in the second half when it mattered. In a tight, low-scoring game, Bironas has got to make those kicks.
Middle o' the Pack
11. Cowboys: No T.O., no problem. Romo has career day, completing long passes to three different receivers. The defense was rather generous.
12. Seahawks: It’s nice to have all the pieces back together.
13. Saints: Matthew Stafford got a free clinic in throwing the ball in the NFL from Drew Brees on Sunday. Touchdowns all around!
14. Packers: Like the Steelers, Aaron Rodgers did nothing for almost the entire game but made the big play when it mattered most and that’s what he’ll be remembered for today.
15. Jets: Sanchez played like a veteran in his debut. If he continues to play like this, the Jets are a playoff team.
16. Broncos: Stokley’s miracle play will be one of the best of the season.
17. Bears: Cutler had a debut to forget: 47% passing, four interceptions and two sacks. The defense kept the Bears in the game despite it all. It doesn’t get any easier next week against Pittsburgh. This team is in trouble with no Urlacher.
18. Texans: What happened to the offense?
19. Buccaneers: It’s nice to see Cadillac Williams back on the field and playing well. Impressive loss for the offense; Byron Leftwich and Williams lead the team to 450 yards of offense. But it felt like I was watching a video game when the Cowboys were on the field.
20. Redskins: Good news: Rams come to town next week.
21. 49ers: Singletary’s Niners stop the Cardinals on 4th down to get a nice rivalry win on the road in the desert despite only 21 yards on the ground.
22. Cardinals: Fitzgerald beat the Madden Curse in Week 1, and the defense stuffed the Niners for most of the game, but Tim Hightower should not be the leading receiver if they expect to win.
23. Bills: Trent Edwards and Fred Jackson looked good and the defense did its job for 57 minutes, but you didn’t actually think that the Bills would win Week 1 in New England, did you?
24. Bengals: That will be one of the most heart-breaking losses of the season. But until that last play, the defense got a great start to the season.
25. Panthers: Jake Delhomme picked up right where he left off, a miserable performance at home. And then losing backup Josh McCown spells bigger trouble for the Panthers this season. They should still be around .500 with their power running game.
Bottom Feeders
26. Raiders: Played hard and should have come away with a win, which makes their 11th straight loss on prime time TV all the more painful.
27. Jaguars: They hung tough in Indy, but the Jags just aren’t a playoff team.
28. Dolphins: The team looked more like the 1-15 team from 2007 than the team that protected the ball so well last year.
29. Browns: Brady Quinn had the biggest blooper of the week. Cribb’s return was a real nice play.
30a. Chiefs: If they want to win a game this year the defense better show up. The Ravens marched up and down the field at will.
30b. Lions: Now that the Lions D got torched in the air, they get a visit from Adrian Peterson next week.
32c. Rams: Steve Spagnuolo is gonna regret leaving the Giants.
Exciting Things Coming Up Next Week:
Giants @ Dallas
Ravens @ San Diego
Saints @ Philadelphia
Seahawks @ San Francisco
Patriots @ New York Jets
NFL Power Report
(Sept 9, 2009)
Opening Day is tomorrow so I guess it’s past time to make my NFL 2009 Predictions. The thing about the NFL is it is easy to pick who will be bad. Picking the great teams is tough because one injury in Week 1 or 2 can sink an entire season for a team. Look at the Seahawks, a staple at the top of the NFC West. Lost their Pro Bowl quarterback, lost like six wideouts, lost a tackle on the line, and this team went from 10 wins to 12 losses. What happens if Peyton, Big Ben, Michael Turner, Kurt Warner, Westbrook, or Rivers go down early? Their respective team would be sub-.500. A few teams on a lower level would be completely sunk without their star: Frank Gore, Jones-Drew, Matt Cassell, Romo, Schaub, Ryan Grant, Steven Jackson, Thomas Jones, and Carson Palmer. There are a few teams that are deep enough that (knock on wood) they could probably handle a major injury or two (a la 2008 Patriots), like the Pats, Vikings, Ravens, and Titans, but those teams are few.
Another squirrely aspect of making ultimate picks is strength of schedule. The Dolphins profited last year from an easy schedule, as the Seahawks did the years prior. The best divisions in the league are clearly the NFC East and the AFC South, and the worst divisions are the AFC West and the NFC West. That makes it much more difficult for the Cardinals and Seahawks to both make the playoffs, as it does for a wild card to come from the NFC South (Falcons, Panthers, Saints). This year the Vikings have a light schedule and Miami, Atlanta, and the Cowboys have very difficult schedules. That being said, the Steelers had THE toughest schedule last year and still won the Super Bowl.
NFC East
*Giants 10-6
*Eagles 10-6
Cowboys 9-7
Redskins 7-9
NFC North
*Vikings 11-5
*Bears 9-7
Packers 8-8
Lions 3-13
NFC South
*Falcons 10-6
Panthers 8-8
Saints 8-8
Buccaneers 4-12
NFC West
*Seahawks 10-6
Cardinals 9-7
49ers 6-10
Rams 4-12
AFC East
*Patriots 13-3
Dolphins 7-9
Jets 5-11
Buffalo 5-11
AFC North
*Steelers 11-5
*Ravens 10-6
Bengals 6-10
Browns 4-12
AFC South
*Titans 10-6
*Texans 10-6
Colts 9-7
Jaguars 7-9
AFC West
*Chargers 10-6
Broncos 7-9
Raiders 5-11
Chiefs 3-13
NFC PLAYOFFS
Falcons over Bears
Eagles over Seahawks
Eagles over Vikings
Falcons over Giants
Falcons over Eagles
AFC PLAYOFFS
Chargers over Texans
Titans over Ravens
Patriots over Titans
Steelers over Chargers
Patriots over Steelers
SUPER BOWL
Patriots over Falcons
MVP: (1) Adrian Peterson (2) Tom Brady (3) Philip Rivers
Teams that could surprise: Bears, Saints, Jets, and Raiders
Opening Day is tomorrow so I guess it’s past time to make my NFL 2009 Predictions. The thing about the NFL is it is easy to pick who will be bad. Picking the great teams is tough because one injury in Week 1 or 2 can sink an entire season for a team. Look at the Seahawks, a staple at the top of the NFC West. Lost their Pro Bowl quarterback, lost like six wideouts, lost a tackle on the line, and this team went from 10 wins to 12 losses. What happens if Peyton, Big Ben, Michael Turner, Kurt Warner, Westbrook, or Rivers go down early? Their respective team would be sub-.500. A few teams on a lower level would be completely sunk without their star: Frank Gore, Jones-Drew, Matt Cassell, Romo, Schaub, Ryan Grant, Steven Jackson, Thomas Jones, and Carson Palmer. There are a few teams that are deep enough that (knock on wood) they could probably handle a major injury or two (a la 2008 Patriots), like the Pats, Vikings, Ravens, and Titans, but those teams are few.
Another squirrely aspect of making ultimate picks is strength of schedule. The Dolphins profited last year from an easy schedule, as the Seahawks did the years prior. The best divisions in the league are clearly the NFC East and the AFC South, and the worst divisions are the AFC West and the NFC West. That makes it much more difficult for the Cardinals and Seahawks to both make the playoffs, as it does for a wild card to come from the NFC South (Falcons, Panthers, Saints). This year the Vikings have a light schedule and Miami, Atlanta, and the Cowboys have very difficult schedules. That being said, the Steelers had THE toughest schedule last year and still won the Super Bowl.
NFC East
*Giants 10-6
*Eagles 10-6
Cowboys 9-7
Redskins 7-9
NFC North
*Vikings 11-5
*Bears 9-7
Packers 8-8
Lions 3-13
NFC South
*Falcons 10-6
Panthers 8-8
Saints 8-8
Buccaneers 4-12
NFC West
*Seahawks 10-6
Cardinals 9-7
49ers 6-10
Rams 4-12
AFC East
*Patriots 13-3
Dolphins 7-9
Jets 5-11
Buffalo 5-11
AFC North
*Steelers 11-5
*Ravens 10-6
Bengals 6-10
Browns 4-12
AFC South
*Titans 10-6
*Texans 10-6
Colts 9-7
Jaguars 7-9
AFC West
*Chargers 10-6
Broncos 7-9
Raiders 5-11
Chiefs 3-13
NFC PLAYOFFS
Falcons over Bears
Eagles over Seahawks
Eagles over Vikings
Falcons over Giants
Falcons over Eagles
AFC PLAYOFFS
Chargers over Texans
Titans over Ravens
Patriots over Titans
Steelers over Chargers
Patriots over Steelers
SUPER BOWL
Patriots over Falcons
MVP: (1) Adrian Peterson (2) Tom Brady (3) Philip Rivers
Teams that could surprise: Bears, Saints, Jets, and Raiders
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