a September stop at the Heartbreak Hotel

American poet John Greenleaf Whittier once famously reflected, "For of all sad words of tongue or pen, the saddest are these: 'It might have been.'" I'm sure baseball was on his mind.

The historic collapse of the 2011 Red Sox and Braves is well documented. Unfortunately, we’ve seen some big failures this season, too.

It looks like the Yankees managed to stop the bleeding in time and despite blowing a 10 game division lead, they’ve never fallen out of first place and will play in October. Unfortunately, three teams have not been as fortunate. And I’m not even talking about the dumpster fire in Boston or the flop in Philadelphia.

1. It looked like this was finally the first time in 20 years that the Pittsburgh Pirates would break the streak of futility and break even in the standings. On August 8, 110 games into the season, the Pirates were 16 games over .500, at 63-47 and in playoff position. In the 47 games since then the poor diehards in western Pennsylvania have seen their beloved team nose dive, going 13-34, and will clinch two decades of failure with their next loss. To add insult to injury, Homer Bailey no-hit the Pirates on Friday, and I can’t think of anything more embarrassing in baseball than not being able to get one hit in 9 innings. The fans are left waiting for next year, as they’ve done since 1992. (On a positive note, things do look bright for next year…)

2. On September 18 the surprise Chicago White Sox were 3 games ahead of the Detroit Tigers in the American League Central and looking at a favorable remaining schedule. Only 9 games later the Sox were 2 back of the Tigers and are wondering what happened to their season. This isn’t the A’s, who play 16 of their last 19 games against the Rangers, Yankees, Tigers and Orioles. Chicago has unraveled going 2-9 against a bunch of teams that will finish no better than 3rd place.

3. This summer the Los Angeles Dodgers picked up payroll like it was going out of style. Within four weeks they acquired All Stars Hanley Ramirez, Shane Victorino, Brandon League, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford (injured), and Adrian Gonzalez, and also added Joe Blanton; joining these guys to an already-strong nucleus of Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and Clayton Kershaw. On August 16 the Dodgers were in first place and their division rivals had just lost their best hitter Melky Cabrera to suspension. Here we are a month and a half later and those star-studded Dodgers are 10 games out of first, proving that winning in the standings is a lot different than stacking your Fantasy Baseball roster.

Week 4 Preview

There is no better sight or sound than the true NFL refs making calls with confidence and authority, as we are seeing tonight in the Browns/Ravens game. After debacles in the GB/SEA, NE/BAL, DEN/ATL, SEA/ARI (plus all the others), it is great to see. A lot of people say "how long until we boo these guys?" For me, it will be a long while. I would rather see real NFL refs make a bad call than replacement refs make a bad call any day. They won't be perfect, but the games will be so much more watchable.

Five Big Games

- Giants vs. Eagles: One of the NFL’s biggest rivalries returns in a Northeast showdown on Sunday Night Football. Giants are coming off an impressive win featuring a lot of backups stepping up while the Eagles got hammered by the vicious Cardinals defense. Despite a good record it has been a rough start for Philadelphia as they have 12 turnovers in 3 games, Michael Vick accounting for 9 (he has also been sacked 9 times behind a poor offensive line). The Eagles always seem to play well against New York, winning 6 of the last 7 meetings. Eli Manning leads the league in passing yards and is getting Ahmad Bradshaw and Hakeem Nicks back for this one. The vaunted Giants pass rush only has 6 sacks through three games, but they are excited with this matchup.

- Bears vs. Cowboys: Another matchup of 2-1 teams jockeying for position in the NFC playoff picture . The Bears offense has not taken off like I expected, but at least last week they put together a pretty easy win and a strong defensive performance, and Matt Forte should be back in action this week. Jay Cutler is among the bottom 3 rated starting quarterbacks in the entire league. Dallas hasn’t been doing much scoring either, tied with the Eagles for fewest points, but they have been the stingiest defense, allowing only 137 yards passing per game.

- Saints vs. Packers: A marquee game on the schedule before the season started, now the teams are combined 1-5. Regardless of the call at the end of Monday Night Football, the Packers offense has struggled mightily, scoring only 4 offensive touchdowns. Aaron Rodgers has also been sacked an NFL-high 16 times. The Saints have been able to score but haven’t stopped anyone and are making lots of mistakes. This should be a real high-scoring affair and the Saints will be desperate for a win, while the Packers certainly don’t want to lose their third.

- 49ers vs. Jets: Well, if this is the #4 game what’s that say about the schedule this week? Jets are in their first game without star Derrelle Revis, which means Alex Smith will certainly challenge Antonio Cromartie and Kyle Wilson. San Francisco is coming off a disappointing loss and spent the week in Ohio thinking about it. Mark Sanchez has the lowest completion percentage in the NFL, and the struggling Jets offense faces their toughest test yet against a defense filled with stars, with the Texans on tap in Week 5.

- Vikings vs. Lions: Christian Ponder has been a real quiet surprise, completing over 70% of his throws helping the Vikings start 2-1, including an impressive win over the afore-mentioned 49ers last week. The Lions head back home after two road losses, including a disappointing overtime loss in which starting quarterback Matthew Stafford left with an injury. He should be back.

Upset Alert

(4-2 overall)

Rams over Seahawks
Bears over Cowboys

Miller’s Fearless Picks

(3-1 last week, 5-7 overall)

49ers over Jets. This has a 49ers beatdown written all over it. San Francisco has a methodical offense and the Jets are poor tacklers missing their best cover man. The 49ers are coming off a loss and the Jets coming off a cheap win. 30-10

Chiefs over Chargers. The Arrowhead Advantage has got to happen sometime and a division rivalry is as good a time as any. Chiefs have AFC-worst 9 turnovers and only 1 takeaway, and if that gets corrected, they are running over everybody. Just a gut call that the Chargers fall on the road. 24-23.

Buccaneers over Redskins. Bucs have played tough two road games in a row against the Giants and Cowboys, and have been the toughest run defense in the NFL, which will make it tough for RG3 to do his magic. I look for Freeman to have his first big game of the year. 27-21

Patriots over Bills. Patriots coming off two tough losses, the Bills coming off two easy wins. Welker and Brandon Lloyd finally made a big appearance against the Ravens. Along with Gronk, all three will find the endzone. 41-28

The Rest of the Games

Ravens 30, Browns 16
Rams 17, Seahawks 16
Falcons 40, Panthers 27
Lions 27, Vikings 20
Texans 37, Titans 24
Bengals 24, Jaguars 14
Broncos 31, Raiders 21
Cardinals 27, Dolphins 10
Packers 44, Saints 37
Giants 30, Eagles 28
Bears 24, Cowboys 21

(terrible 3-9 last week, 19-16 overall)

the end of Tebow Time before it even started

Boomer Esiason: Jets should cut Tim Tebow (8/6/2012)

Remember that? That sounded so silly and premature just 6 weeks ago but Boomer obviously knew what he was talking about. This whole Tim Tebow experiment has to stop. What have we seen so far: they don’t use him in a game the Jets are up by 34 points, they don’t use him when they are down by 7, they don’t use him near the goal line, they don’t use him when Mark Sanchez is struggling, they don’t even use him after Mark Sanchez takes a big hit and is obviously affected. Meanwhile, on the rare occasions they do use him they give up after one play. Or use him split wide and throw to him on 3rd down when he doesn’t have a clue what he’s doing. For months we‘ve heard how Tony Sparano has designed all these crazy Tebowmania plays, things the press wasn’t even allowed to watch during practices. They are going to use Tebow 20 plays a game. Well, what was he in this week, four plays? The week before, three? They don't even trust him to throw one pass!

Why is he on the team?

This is just another case of why the Jets are a joke and why you can't take anything they say seriously.

Other than a Week 1 mirage where the Bills turned the ball over four times and had a punt returned the distance, the Jets offense has been just as dismal as expected. They have no running game. They have no depth. Mark Sanchez has completed only 43% of his passes the last two weeks. They waste timeouts and challenges. Next up is the 49ers and Texans, the two best defenses in the NFL. And you know what, the vaunted Jets defense isn’t doing that well, either. They are 28th in run defense (couldn’t even stop a backup running back playing behind a rookie quarterback), are terrible at tackling, and they will be without Revis Island the rest of the season.

Jets are 2-1 and in first place, yes they are. They started 2-0 last year, too, finishing 8-8. This year not even with Tim Tebow will they reach that mark. So why continue the circus? Cut Tebow and get some focus.

not so easy in the Big Easy

Everybody knew that Peyton Manning is great, but perhaps it took us witnessing the team without him last year to realize just how valuable he is. We are getting the same thing this year with the other Payton (with an “a”), Sean, the coach of the Saints.

In a season already filled with surprises, the biggest shocker in Week 3 is the same thing from the opener, how disappointing the New Orleans Saints are. We all know they are 0-3, including two losses at home where they were 8-0 in 2011.

Obviously, the whole Bountygate mess has hurt an already bad defense. They simply cannot stop the run, and it’s going from bad to worse. Against the Redskins they allowed 153 yards (3.5 per carry). The Panthers ran for 219 yards (5.3 avg), and this week the Chiefs went wild for 273 yards, over SIX yards per carry!

Many people, myself included, figured Drew Brees is as good a coach and leader on the field as you need, but that clearly is not the case. Drew Brees and the offense are not getting it done in the 4th quarter with the game on the line. Brees threw an interception that sealed the game each of the first two weeks, and against the Chiefs the Saints gave up a safety on their last possession that resulted in KC getting 5 points to tie the game.

The only other 0-3 team is the Browns. At least they can say that the Eagles, Bengals and Bills are all 2-1. One of the most amazing things about the Saints this year is not just that they are 0-3, but their losses are to teams that are 0-6 against everyone else! Saints lose to teams that have losses to the Buccaneers (1-2) and Rams (1-2). When you put it that way, the Saints are the worst team in football! And with a trip to Green Bay next week, trip to Denver later in October, and games with Philadelphia, Atlanta and San Francisco in the upcoming schedule, it isn’t going to get better anytime soon.

BYU blows it

Against the Broncos, Bronco Mendenhall made one of the dumbest coaching moves of the year in the BYU vs. Boise State football game Thursday night.

Offensively, BYU was terrible all night. The Cougars gained 95 yards on their last drive of the game, and that was equal to what they gained the whole rest of the game. They turned the ball over 5 times in the game. The starting quarterback was benched in the third quarter and replaced by a freshman quarterback, a quarterback who probably couldn’t throw better than I could.

And yet in the middle of the fourth quarter they trailed by only one touchdown as the Cougar defense stifled the Boise State team. The Broncos only score came on an interception return. They have a kicker they couldn’t trust, who missed a 33 yard chip-in field goal earlier in the game. In the second half Boise State couldn’t buy a yard.

Now like I said, BYU trailed by 7 points in the fourth quarter. Miraculously, the Cougars put a drive together led by the legs of freshman Taysom Hill, and scored a touchdown. With 4:40 left and no time outs. And BYU coach went for 2. WHAT?! For the first time BYU finally had some momentum and Bronco put the entire game into the hands of a freshman, a freshman who was missing wide open receivers 5 yards away repeatedly. Overthrowing, underthrowing, not seeing other guys wide open. He can run and made some plays that last drive but come on, he was painful to watch. And with a chance to tie the game against a team who can’t move the ball and can’t kick, the coach gives the freshman the ball to win it. Hill rolls out, here comes the pressure, there is nowhere to run, he throws a bad pass to a covered receiver, and the ball falls incomplete.

Why on earth would you go for 2? There was NO WAY that Boise State give Hill any chance to run. That play had ZERO chance to work. Why would you put so much pressure on a freshman backup quarterback, and how could you trust him to come through against a defense that only allowed 200 yards the whole game?

BYU had no timeouts; they were not going to get the ball again in regulation. And the way Boise State could not do anything on offense, I felt pretty comfortable going into overtime.

I could sort of understand the choice had the game been 38-37 and you haven’t been able to stop the other team the whole game, but here? Kick the point after. Tie the game. Give your whole team (offense, defense, special teams) a chance to win the game and beat a Top 25 team on the road. BYU’s defense was the best unit the whole game and has been stellar all year. Instead, Bronco put the whole game into the hands of Taysom Hill, a kid who won’t even play next week, to roll out and make a pass that is difficult for even experienced quarterbacks to make, and BYU lost 7-6. If you trust Hill so much, why would you then defend Riley Nelson after the game, saying that he will be your quarterback the next game? Bronco Mendenhall let down his team and the entire BYU population around the country with that decision.

Week 3 Preview

A lot of crazy things happened last week, including the Patriots, Ravens, Saints and Cowboys losing and the Giants narrowly avoiding defeat. Home teams went 14-2 after a more reasonable 9-7 in season openers. I'm picking 9 road teams this week. For people in Eliminator/Survivor/Knockout pools, you should be very nervous about this week as I see potential for any team to get upset. Do you trust the 0-2 Saints? Of the 2-0 49ers on the road? Packers in Seattle?

Five Big Games

- Patriots vs. Ravens: A rematch of the AFC Championship game won by a missed field goal. (Ironic that the Patriots lost last week the same way?) Both of these top AFC teams are coming off disappointing losses and neither wants to continue a losing streak. Aaron Hernandez is out and with all the talk about how Wes Welker has been neglected, maybe this is the game that he goes on fire. As for the Ravens, Ray Rice is getting half the carries he should be.

- Falcons vs. Chargers: Battle of two 2-0 teams so something has gotta give. Matty Ice has been the hottest quarterback the first 1/8 of the season and the defense frustrated Peyton Manning last week. This will be the first real challenge for the Chargers, who will be getting Antonio Gates and Ryan Mathews back from injuries.

- Texans vs. Broncos. Houston is 2-0 and get their first real test in Denver against a very good Broncos defense and Peyton Manning who is looking to avenge a terrible game last Monday Night. Arian Foster and Ben Tate have been the busiest back field. Texans have not turned the ball over on offense yet.

- Eagles vs. Cardinals: The other matchup of teams looking to reach 3-0. Kevin Kolb has looked good coming in for John Skelton but he’ll get his biggest test against his former team, the very aggressive Eagles. The Eagles have the top offense so far but also a a zillion turnovers, and the Cardinals just gave Tom Brady a terrible day.

- Giants vs. Panthers: No Nicks, Bradshaw, Diehl, or Hixon and the G-Men are underdogs on the road in Carolina. For a team that struggled as heavy favorites last year, maybe this is a good situation for Eli and Coughlin. Cam had a great game against a terrible Saints defense, and now he gets to face Jason Pierre-Paul and Justin Tuck.

Upset Alert
(2-0 last week, 3-1 overall)

Bengals over Redskins
Broncos over Texans

Miller’s Fearless Pic ks
(2-2 last week, 2-6 overall)

Giants over Panthers. Dealing with major injuries to key people, but the depth is there. Look for Martellus Bennett and Andre Brown to step up with big games, and the pass rush will give Cam Newton troubles. I don’t think the Panthers are very good and are in danger of letdown after a big win over the Saints . 34-20

Bears over Rams. Chicago is coming off an embarrassing loss last week and get a few extra days to prepare for this one. Meanwhile, the Rams are coming off a strange win after a dumb Redskins penalty screwed up a Washington comeback. The Bears are desperate and angry and will punish Sam Bradford and light up the defense. 34-14

Packers over the Seahawks. Green Bay is on the road in hostile Seattle, but like the Bears have a few extra days to make the trip. With all the controversy surrounding comments about Aaron Rodgers I expect him to go out and finally have a great game in Prime Time. 38-17

Cowboys over Buccaneers. Home opener in Dallas and the Cowboys are coming off the season’s worst loss so far so they will be hungry to make a statement. Eli Manning went hog-wild against the Bucs defense, and Tony Romo is 3-0 with 11 touchdowns and no interceptions in his career against Tampa Bay. 28-17

The Rest of the Games

Bills 30, Browns 27
Lions 31, Titans 26
Colts 20, Jaguars 14
Jets 17, Dolphins 16
49ers 20, Vikings 10
Saints 38, Chiefs 30
Bengals 26, Redskins 24
Eagles 30, Cardinals 13
Chargers 28, Atlanta 27
Broncos 23, Texans 20
Steelers 30, Raiders 19
Patriots 24, Ravens 23

(7-5 last week, 16-7 overall)

hey Bud, wake up!

Melky Cabrera was suspended for the last third of the year for cheating, testing positive for performance-enhancing drugs. The positive test came during the season, a season in which he exploded to lead the league in batting average and win the All Star MVP.

In his first six seasons in the majors Cabrera never hit higher than .280 and was really just a 4th outfielder for the Yankees and Braves. In his eighth season he jumped to .346! This also coincidentally coincided with his free agent year. PEDs clearly contributed to his success.

On Wednesday, commissioner Bud Selig says that it is unlikely that baseball will interfere with the baseball awards if Melky Cabrera ends the season as the leader in batting average. Cabrera began his suspension hitting .346, with Andrew McCutchen currently second at .339. Cabrera has 501 at bats, one fewer than the qualifying number. In the Official Baseball Rules, according to section 10.22(a), he would win the batting title if an extra hitless at-bat is added to his average and it remains higher than that of any other qualifying player.

Two and a half years ago, Bud Selig stated that “The so-called steroid era... is a thing of the past.” Today, the most recent NL MVP (Ryan Braun), All Star MVP and likely batting champion (Cabrera) flunked a test for PEDs during the season that they won it. This problem isn’t going away. And with an opportunity to punish a high-profiler offender, Bud just shrugs his shoulders and says “We’ll see how it all plays out. We generally don’t interfere in that process.”

So when my kids are old and looking through the baseball record books and see ‘Melky Cabrera: 2012 All Star MVP and NL Batting Champion,’ we will have this conversation:

“Melky’s a funny name. Dad, who was Melky?”
“He was a cheater. He broke the rules by using banned substances.”
“So how come they let him keep the awards?”
My only response will be, “Because the commissioner didn’t feel like interfering.”

As science is improving, player salaries are increasing, and substances are getting harder to catch, many low- and mid-level hitters are willing to take a chance on not being caught with the opportunity to crash the leaderboard and cash in on a big contract. Melky Cabrera took a chance on a $100 million contract and although he won’t get close to that next year, several teams will likely offer him over $10 million a year. That’s five times what he would have gotten pre-PEDs. And along the ride he picked up an All Star MVP and batting title.

Selig is a coward with his head in the sand. He waited until the last minute to do anything about steroids and performance enhancing drugs. As soon as he possibly could after that, he declared, “the steroid era is over.” And later on when players are still winning the hardware with the juice, he is content to just sit back and let it be, still whispering to himself that “things are changing, things are changing.”

the miracle O's do it again

People are probably tired of hearing me talk about the Orioles but what can I say? They are the biggest story in the American League this season.

On a night where a win would put them in a tie with the Yankees for first place, the Orioles hung on for close to 6 hours to beat the Mariners in 18 innings. Down 2-0 in the ninth, the Orioles rallied to tie the game. While the 4-5-6-7-8 batters for Baltimore went 1-35, the bullpen went 12 and 2/3 innings without allowing a run. The win gives them an amazing 14 consecutive extra-inning wins, the longest such streak in over 60 years. Add in a 27-8 record in one-run games, and 32-15 record since July 29 (Yankees are 23-23 during the same stretch), and this team has clutch written all over it. And coming from a huge Bombers fan, that is what has been missing in New York.

The O’s hung around for the first half of the year have really caught fire since the end of July. On a team with Adam Jones, Matt Weiters, and former All Stars Nate McLouth and Nick Markakis, the two players I really want to comment on are Taylor Teagarden and Manna Machado.
Backup catcher Taylor Teagarden, batting .152, only has 7 hits this year. But look at when these hits come:

Teagarden had a pinch-hit game-winning double in 18th inning Tuesday night, had 2 RBI go-ahead hit in 7th inning in last week’s 14 inning win over the Rays, homered and doubled in a tight win over the White Sox August 30, had a game winning hit in 10th inning August 5 against Tampa Bay, and in his first game of the season on July 14, he hit a walk-off home run in the 13th to beat the Detroit Tigers. Coach Buck Showalter definitely seems to know the right moment to ride the clutch TT.

We’ve all seen and heard what Mike Trout has done, but 20 year-old Manny Machado has had a similar affect on his team, the Baltimore Orioles, since he was called up in early August. Along with strong offense, he also plays outstanding defense, including this game-saving play. When Machado came up the Orioles were the worst defensive team in the American League. But despite switching from shortstop to third base, he has played stellar defense (only 2 errors) and moving Mark Reynolds to first full time has practically turned that error machine into a gold glover. Along with Teagarden, Machado’s call-up coincides pretty significantly with the Orioles late-season surge.

And speaking of Reynolds’ defense, his season offensively has really turned around since Machado arrived. 13 of his 21 home runs have come since Aug 8 and his batting average, a measly .208 at the end of July, has been .263 since.

Everybody has been writing the O’s off as a contender all year, as late as a week ago putting them behind the Tampa Rays. But with the season on the line Buck Showalter's team has risen above while the Rays stumble along. Whether the Orioles win the East or settle for a Wild Card spot, this is the best story of the baseball season and Showalter is a lock to win his third Manager of the Year award.