NFC Season Preview and Predictions

See, I told you so.

What exactly is the point of doing season predictions? Why do so many people do it and publish it? I think that's why, so that should the slight chance that we get slightly more right than wrong, we can say that: "See, I told you so." Ironically, we don't often here "wow, I screwed that up bad. I wasn't even close!"

I think a second reason people do predictions is because the offseason is long and we get so excited for the season to start we gotta do something to prepare! I love football! So here I go.

NFC

Last season the Eagles, Lions and Cardinals sat in the NFC cellar. This season those three should all be significantly stronger while no team in the conference really shows much decline. Result: the '13 NFC may be the strongest and most balanced conference we have ever seen. For many years the East has been Beast while the West was a laughingstock. Not so now, as many people view the NFC West as the best division in the league, while the South and North can also stake a claim as the strongest, a telling sign of how tough the conference has grown. Now more than ever, the NFC is really up for grabs and should be very entertaining.

At this point, the two best teams in the NFC are the 49ers and Seahawks; I don't think there's a lot of doubt about that. Thinking about the postseason, it is most likely that those two teams would meet in the second round. That makes winning the division so important, because even if the Wild Card wins, you want the NFC Championship game in Seattle or San Francisco, not 3,000+ miles away in Atlanta.

East

The East may not be as dominant as it has in the past, but it will be no less competitive. Indeed, each of the four teams has a good shot at winning the division. The biggest wild card is RGIII. The Redskins quarterback led the Redskins to the playoffs a year ago, and while his recovery has been remarkable, you wonder how much he will be compromised or how conservative the team will be with him. (Then again, he could be even better with his gained experience. I'm not so sure, as defenses will be ready for him.)  It seems that any given week Cowboys QB Tony Romo can look like either the best passer in the league or the worst, and he's usually the worst at the most inopportune times. The Giants are my team and Eli Manning is one of my favorite players, but they have been hit hard by injuries at nearly every position, and after the defense's underperformance last year and losses of Osi and Chris Canty, you wonder if they can regain that vaunted pass rush that disguises other weaknesses. The Eagles were a mess last year and made the change to Chip Kelly's high speed offense and got a new D-coordinator. Is that enough to turn them around? We'll see. 

Cowboys

+ Romo and Dez Bryant

- Tendency for Romo and defense to crumble; fragility of DeMarco Murray leading the ground game

Tough games: Broncos, @Eagles, @Lions, @Saints, @Giants, @Bears, @Packers @Redskins

Prediction: 9-7

Redskins

+ RGIII and Alfred Morris; a healthy Brian Orakpo should improve the defense

- Griffin's knee, challenging schedule

Tough games: @Packers, @Cowboys, Bears, @Broncos, @Vikings, @Eagles, 49ers, Giants, @Falcons, @Giants

Prediction: 9-7

Eagles

+ Coach Chip Kelly's regime, LeSean McCoy

- Offensive line, depth at receiver, Michael Vick injury risk

Tough games: @Redskins, @Broncos, @Giants, @Buccaneers, @Packers, @Vikings, Bears, @Cowboys

Prediction: 8-8

Giants

+ Eli Manning, Jason Pierre-Paul (if healthy). Champion experience.

- Plethora of injuries already on both sides; depth of ground game; secondary and pass rush

Tough games: @Cowboys, Broncos, @Chiefs, @Bears, @Eagles, Packers, @Redskins, @Chargers, Seahawks, @Lions

Prediction: 7-9

West

The breakout of the NFC West happened quick. Alex Smith turned things around in San Fran, then the keys were handed over to Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers exploded. Among all the great young quarterbacks in the league, Russell Wilson for the Seahawks may be the best. Sam Bradford finally has some receivers and o-line protection and a decent chance (remember, he was a #1 pick several years ago), and with the big step the Rams made last year, maybe they can build on that. And the Cardinals are coming off a season with one of the most pathetic quarterback performances in league history into one with a new quarterback who threw for over 4,000 yards a year ago. A lot to look forward to.

Seahawks

+ Perhaps the second most talented roster in the NFL. Balanced offense, strong o-line, great defense, great home field advantage

- No clear weaknesses

Tough games: 49ers, @Texans, @Colts, @Falcons, @49ers, @Giants

Prediction: 11-5

49ers

+ Perhaps the most talented roster in the NFL with a great coach (Harbaugh), dynamite quarterback, strong defense, and Super Bowl experience

- Weak group of wide receivers

Tough games: Packers, @Seahawks, Texans, @Saints, @Redskins, Seahawks, Falcons

Prediction: 11-5

Rams

+ Improved offensive line, speedy receivers, defense should be solid

- Bradford hasn't shown much in his career; no names in ground game

Winnable games: Cardinals, Jaguars, @Panthers, Titans, @Cardinals, Saints, Buccaneers

Prediction: 7-9

Cardinals

+ At least they have a real quarterback this year. Larry Fitzgerald will be happy. Defense was good last year

- Weak offensive line, weak rushing game, perhaps the league's toughest schedule

Winnable games: Lions, Panthers, @Jaguars, Colts, Rams, @Titans

Prediction: 5-11

North

Packers have owned the division lately but the Vikings made the playoffs last year while the Bears won 10 games. The Lions have a ton of talent and are no pushover, either. The NFC North has the best quarterback, running back, and wide receiver in the NFL. Most people are penciling in Green Bay to win the division without a second though, but I have some concerns about them, both on defense and offense. I love the addition of Reggie Bush to the Lions, but they don't have an easy game all year. If Jay Cutler can stay upright the Bears are my pick to win 10 games again and win the division, although a first round matchup with either the Packers or 49ers/Seahawks would be trouble.

Bears

+ New coach hopes to shake things up on offense. Matt Forte and Brandon Marshall are stars on offense. Strong and opportunistic defense

- Offensive line, Jay Cutler's leadership

Tough games: Bengals, @Lions, @Redskins, @Packers, Ravens, @Vikings, Cowboys, @Eagles, Packers

Prediction: 10-6

Packers

+ Aaron Rodgers, one of best quarterbacks (players) in the NFL leading the way, elite passing attacks; Clay Matthews is a monster on defense

- Defense is much too generous, especially in big games. They haven't had a legitimate ground game in a long time, questionable offensive line, tough schedule

Tough games: @49ers, @Bengals, @Ravens, @Vikings, @Giants, Falcons, @Cowboys, @Bears

Prediction: 9-7

Lions

+ Reggie Bush is perfect addition, Megatron is best receiver in football, talented defense

- Discipline, coaching, secondary

Winnable games: Vikings, @Cardinals, Bears, @Browns, Cowboys, @Steelers, Buccaneers, Ravens, Giants

Prediction: 8-8

Vikings

+ Adrian Peterson is the reigning MVP and carries the team. Strong o- and d- lines

- Nonexistent passing game, secondary

Winnable games: Browns, Steelers, Panthers, Redskins, Bears, Eagles, Lions

Prediction: 7-9

South

Falcons won the division going away last year as the other three teams all fell below .500 at 7-9. The Bucs and Saints are talented enough to make a jump, but the Saints will need a much better performance by their defense, and Josh Freeman will need to regain his swagger from early in his career when he looked like a future star. Cam Newton is a great talent but I question his leadership and ability to really take the Panthers up another step. I don't think Atlanta will be as dominant (or lucky?) as last season but even a small step back would keep them at the top of the division. One bright spot for the South, they go heads up with the AFC East, which means everybody gets a game with the Jets, Bills, and Dolphins.

Falcons

+ Impressive talent at skill positions on offense, significant success at home

- Defensive pass rush, inability to advance in the playoffs

Tough games: @Saints, Patriots, Seahawks, @Packers, @49ers

Prediction: 11-5

Buccaneers

+ Balanced offense; Revis and Goldson improve one of the league's worst pass defenses

- Is Josh Freeman going to rise or fall?

Winnable games: @Jets, Saints, @Panthers, Cardinals, Eagles, Panthers, Dolphins, Bills

Prediction: 9-7

Saints

- Drew Brees leads an elite aerial attack, Coach Sean Payton is back

- Defense has been historically bad

Winnable games: Falcons, Cardinals, Dolphins, Bills, @Jets, Cowboys, Panthers, Bucs, @Panthers

Prediction: 8-8

Panthers

+ Cam Newton among league's greatest talents and most exciting players; Luke Kuechly already a dominant force on defense in his second year

- Cam's leadership and inability to get everyone involved, troubles closing out games, defense isn't great

Winnable games: @Bills, Giants, Rams, @Dolphins, Buccaneers, Jets, Saints

Prediction: 6-10

Pencil It In

Seahawks

49ers

Likely In

Falcons

Packers

Bears

Best Shot in the East

Cowboys

Possible Party Crashers

Saints

Redskins

Eagles

Lions

Buccaneers

NFC Championship Game

Seahawks and Falcons

NFC and Super Bowl Champs

Seahawks

2013 NFL Preview: AFC

I am amazed at how significantly the power has shifted from the AFC to the NFC. Not only that, the gap between the top of the AFC and the other teams has widened significantly. Think of the worst (expected) teams in the NFL: Raiders, Jaguars, Titans, Bills, Jets. (And that's not even including the Chargers, Chiefs, Browns, or Dolphins). What do they all have in common? All in the AFC! Meanwhile, the bottom teams in the NFC (Lions, Eagles, Cardinals) should all be much better off this year.

East

As much as the Patriots have lost, they still have Brady and Belichick and that is a lot more than anybody else. Who's the second best QB in the division, Tannehill? The Dolphins are a trendy surprise team but I'm just not seeing it; even if Tannehill improves they are lifeless on offense. Miami has a tough first five weeks with home games against the Falcons and Ravens and road trips to Cleveland, Indianapolis and New Orleans; 1-4 heading into the bye is a distinct possibility (with back-to-back against Patriots and Bengals in October) and that would suck the life out of the team. I would feel much better about the Bills if rookie EJ Manuel got some experience in the preseason and was healthy heading into opening kickoff rather than giving way to an undrafted rookie. Patriots are a mile ahead of everybody else in the division.

Patriots

+ Brady & Belichick, very strong running game, improved defense, no games out West!

- changes among receivers, health of Gronkowski

Tough games: @Falcons, Broncos, @Texans, @Ravens

Prediction: 11-5

Dolphins

+ Tannehill could make big step, defense is a strong unit

- offense is weak an unimpressive, tough early schedule

Winnable games: @Browns, Bills, Chargers, Panthers, @Jets, @Steelers, @Bills, Jets

Prediction: 7-9

Bills

+ CJ Spiller is most explosive and exciting player in the division

- inexperienced quarterbacks (to put it nicely) with poor receivers; weak secondary

Winnable games: Panthers, @Jets, @Browns, @Dolphins, Chiefs, Jets, @Jags, Dolphins

Prediction: 6-10

Jets

+ Rex Ryan defense typically strong, Chris Ivory could improve ground game

- questionable quarterbacks with poor receivers; pass rush, secondary; combustible

Winnable games: Bucs, Bills, @Titans, Steelers, @Bills, Dolphins, Raiders, Browns, @Dolphins

Prediction: 5-11

West

This is clearly the Broncos division. Peyton Manning always leads a good offense, and as long as they look out for 60-yard hail mary passes in playoff games the defense should be one of the AFC's best, too. They are not without flaws; they've already lost two centers for the year, they don't have a proven running back, Elvis Dumervil is gone and Von Miller will miss 6 games. Chiefs are probably the next most competitive team but they've got a long way to go after they only won 2 games in 2012. Still, significant changes at coach and quarterback could add half dozen wins to that. Chargers made some team management changes but not much player talent improvements. The Raiders are not only disfunctional but devoid of talent. Tough combo.

Broncos

+ Peyton with the best receiving corps in the NFL

- injuries to offensive line, Von Miller suspended for early challenging games

Tough games: Ravens, @Giants, @Cowboys, @Colts, Redskins, @Patriots, @Texans

Prediction: 11-5

Chiefs

+ Coach Reid and Alex Smith significantly improve one of the worst QB situations from 2012. Jamaal Charles is a star. Arrowhead is generally a big home advantage.

- poor pass protection on offense and poor pass rush on defense

Winnable games: @Jags, @Titans, Raiders, Browns, @Bills, Chargers, @Raiders, Colts, @Chargers

Prediction: 8-8

Chargers

+ Added talent on defense, front office changes

- Declining and turnover-prone quarterback with a depleted receiving group

Winnable games: @Titans, @Raiders, Colts, Raiders, Chiefs

Prediction: 5-11

Raiders

+ ... ...

- least talented team by far and no management stability

Winnable games: Jags, Redskins, Chargers, Eagles, Titans, Chiefs, @Chargers

Prediction: 3-13

North

The Black and Blue division is likely to be tougher than ever as the Bengals, Ravens and Browns all improved their defenses and the two young quarterbacks Weeden and Dalton look to make a step forward. Baltimore is the defending Super Bowl champions, but they have gone through the most personnel changes in the whole league. Their offense is depending a whole lot on Joe Flacco and Ray Rice without much help elsewhere, but while the defense shed some aging veteran leadership they found some real pass rushers. The Steelers are still led by Big Ben Roethlisberger and Troy Polamalu, but how many games will those stars be healthy enough to play? Two and a half years ago I thought the Bengals were nuts for retaining Coach Marvin Lewis; now I believe they are headed to their third straight postseason. Cincinnati has the most talent in the division on offense and defense but it all depends on Andy Dalton's progression. Fortunately, they added some toys for him in the draft. Cleveland has the furthest to go and the only unproven quarterback in the division, but they have improved around him and brought in Norv Turner as O-Coordinator which should give him a boost.

Bengals

+ AJ Green, Geno Atkins, defense should be great

- How good is Andy Dalton, and can he get the ball to anyone else?

Tough games: @Bears, Packers, Patriots, @Ravens, Colts, @Steelers

Prediction: 10-6

Ravens

+ Pass rush with Dumervil, Canty, Suggs and Ngata; Super Bowl experience; Ray Rice most valuable player in division

- massive roster turnover; lack of receivers; challenging schedule; SB hangover

Tough games: @Broncos, Texans, Packers, @Steelers, @Bears, Patriots, @Bengals

Prediction: 9-7

Browns

+ Trent Richardson focal point on offense

- Below average QB play, #1 receiver suspended first 2 games, tough schedule

Winnable games: Dolphins, Bills, Lions, Steelers, Jags, @Jets

Prediction: 7-9

Steelers

+ Franchise stability, Roethlisberger’s experience

- Poor offensive line coupled with Big Ben’s beleaguered injury history, lost top receiver and top 2 running backs, top two tight ends also hurt

Winnable games: Titans, @Jets, @Raiders, Bills, Lions, Dolphins, Browns

Prediction: 6-10

South

This division mirrors the West and East: the Texans have established themselves as a wide class above the rest; the Colts are gunning for a playoff berth, and the other two teams are terrible. Indianapolis and Luck appear to have gotten lucky in 2012 and are hoping to grow on that. I don't think they are strong as an 11-win team, but in an easy AFC and if Andrew Luck is all that he is made out to be, they should be a 9- or 10-win team and good enough to play an extra game in January. The Titans and Jaguars each have poor quarterbacks and poor defenses, a lethal combination for fans' hopes.

Texans

+ Foster + Andre Johnson + Watt = starpower

- average QB, team’s inability to make noise in the playoffs

Tough games: @Ravens, Seahawks, @49ers, Patriots, @Colts, Broncos

Prediction: 11-5

Colts

+ Potential of Andrew Luck with more weapons, lots of 2012 first-year players more experienced now

- Offensive line, rushing, defense all suspect

Tough games: @49ers, Seahawks, Broncos, @Texans, @Bengals, Texans

Prediction: 9-7

Jaguars

+ MJD is back, good group of young receivers, new coach

- Terrible quarterback play, one of league’s worst defenses

Winnable games: Chiefs, @Raiders, Colts, Chargers, Cardinals, Bills, Titans

Prediction: 6-10

Titans

+ Strong ground game, several quality receivers

- Terrible defense devoid of playmakers, Jake Locker doesn’t look like an NFL quarterback

Winnable games: Chargers, Jets, Chiefs, Jaguars, @Raiders, Cardinals

Prediction: 5-11

Lock It Up

Patriots

Texans

Broncos

Bengals

Likely Wild Cards

Ravens

Colts

Potential Party Crashers

Chiefs

My Pick for AFC Champ

(Surprise!) Bengals

AL East update: everyone's a winner!

AL BEast Notebook - June 26 

It's exciting times in the AL East this summer as all five teams are over .500 (no other division has four). The top and the bottom are separated by just six games, teams are getting healthy, and we are getting a lot of divisional matchups lately. Here is your AL East report, notes from all five teams conveniently in one place.

Boston Red Sox

** Red Sox hoped Clay Buchholz would be ready to start Tuesday's game but he is not progressing from his injury. He is 0-2 in bullpen sessions, and is now unlikely to return before the break.

** Jon Lester was 6-0 with a 2.72 ERA after his ninth start on May 15. In 7 starts since, Lester is 1-4 with a 7.30 ERA. He is giving up lots of hits, lots of walks, and lots of home runs (eight in his last four games).

** The Red Sox sent Will Middlebrooks down to Pawtucket on Tuesday. The third baseman who broke out last year never got going in 2013 and leaves with a .192 average (.228 on-base percentage). One of the reasons the move makes sense is the offensive breakout of slick-fielding Jose Iglesias, who's AVG/OBP is .434/.484 and earns him a spot in the everyday lineup. After hitting three home runs in a game on April 7, Middlebrooks fell into a 5-for-54 slump that he never really got out of.

** One of the biggest keys of the season for the Red Sox was their "improved" bullpen, and that has been a disaster this year. Replacing ineffective and now injured Joel Hanrahan, Andrew Bailey has been removed from the closer role after throwing a gopher ball in four out of five outings (and another run in his most recent game). While Koji Uehara can take his place, all the movement makes the entire bullpen weaker.

** All that negativity being said (what do you expect; I'm a Yankees fan), Boston still has the best record in the American League, and starting pitchers not named Jon Lester are 9-3 in June with a 2.86 ERA.

New York Yankees

** If all goes right, this team could look very different in three weeks: Curtis Granderson, Derek Jeter, Francisco Cervelli, Eduardo Nunez, and Michael Pineda are all progressing and hope to join the Yankees after the All-Star break.

** As for Alex Rodriguez, he caused quite a stir Tuesday when he tweeted that his hip surgeon cleared him to play; GM Brian Cashman responded by saying "Alex should just shut the [expletive] up." A-Rod said he made the statement out of pure excitement from the positive prognosis, but it is obvious that the Yankees organization want to make the public statements and that it's the team doctors that have the authority about when he is physically ready.

On the other hand, it is also obvious that the Yankees want nothing to do with A-Rod and are hoping that the league is able to swiftly get through this Biogenesis mess and suspend him.

** One guy that won't be coming back is Mark Teixeira. His doctors say that his wrist sheath is not healing and season-ending surgery is recommended. Expect the Yankees to be in the trade market for a first baseman.
 
** The thing about this Yankees season is it is very misleading. Vernon Wells is dreadful for two months, then gets a game winning hit. What are we supposed to think, keep him in the lineup? Ichiro had only three extra-base hits since May 11 before hitting the walk-off homer on Tuesday night. Does that mean he deserves to stay in the lineup? Travis Hafner is hitting just .173 since April, but he does have six home runs; should they keep running him out there? Rookie Zoilo Almonte has had a fast start; is he one of the top three outfielders when Granderson returns? And what about Lyle Overbay?

** Hiroki Kuroda has been great, but the rest of the rotation leaves much to be desired. C.C. Sabathia has given up 4+ runs in five of his last seven games, and Andy Pettitte and Phil Hughes are not pitching well. David Phelps and Ivan Nova look great from time to time but also get bombed from time to time. Of those six, Kuroda is the only one with an ERA under 4.00, and the way the Yankees have been hitting the last two months, that's not good enough.

Baltimore Orioles

** Despite getting swept up by the streaking Blue Jays last weekend, there's lots of good news in Baltimore. Wei-Yin Chen, Brian Roberts and Nolan Reimold are all very close to returning. Chen, out since mid-May, will be a welcome sight for a team that has seen enough of Freddy Garcia.

Roberts, a two-time All-Star, has been out since the first week of the season. His replacement, Alexi Casilla, hit his first home run of the season on Tuesday, a three-run shot off Indians Justin Masterson that won the game.

** Orioles fans have come out in droves to vote for All-Stars and the numbers show. Four O's are leading the vote at last count (Chris Davis, J.J. Hardy, Adam Jones and Nick Markakis), and a fifth as a non-starter, Manny Machado, is entirely possible. However, if Markakis does get in then it is unlikely the Orioles would get a fifth, especially with Cabrera, Longoria, Donaldson and Beltre playing well at third base. (Could he still get in on the fan Final Vote?)

** Pitcher Chris Tillman has quietly been the most effective starter in Baltimore. Tillman has not allowed more than three runs in 12 of his last 13 games, and with the way the Orioles hit that's good enough for a 9-1 record since April 22.

** It's not all good news though. Dylan Bundy, who came into 2013 as the best pitching prospect in all of baseball, is scheduled to have Tommy John surgery on Thursday and will miss a whole year.


Tampa Bay Rays

** The Wil Myers Era has begun in Tampa Bay. Myers picked up his eighth RBI in his ninth career game, and is actually the fourth player to do that this season (joining Puig, Gattis and Arenado). Batting behind Evan Longoria, he has already made pitchers pay twice for intentionally walking Longoria in front of him.

** Reigning Cy-Young winner David Price will pitch his second rehab start today (Wednesday). If all goes well, he could be ready to start for the Rays next week in Houston. Price has been out since May 16, and wasn't very good before that (1-4, 5.24).

** Fellow starter Alex Cobb took a line drive off his face June 15 and received a concussion. He is still having symptoms and is not close to returning.

** Speaking of pitchers, Matt Moore had a game reminiscent to Wild Thing on Tuesday. He struck out 11 batters but walked 6, throwing a career-high 120 pitches and only got through the sixth inning.

Toronto Blue Jays

** The win on Wednesday puts the Jays back over .500 but that's not all the good news in Toronto. Jose Reyes, who hadn't played since April 12 with an injury, was back in the lineup Wednesday against the Rays. And who wouldn't be excited about getting back a switch-hitting, high-energy, leadoff man shortstop that won a batting title a couple years ago?

R.A. Dickey threw a gem on Wednesday, allowing just two hits and one walk as the Blue Jays ace shutout the Rays in Tampa Bay. Blue Jays are hoping that great performance, along with Reyes' return, can get them back on another big run with an important series at Fenway Park up next.

** Blue Jays big 11-game winning streak that took them over .500 (and briefly out of the division basement) coincides with some great pitching, especially the return of Josh Johnson from injury and the addition of veteran Chien-Ming Wang to the rotation. Esmil Rogers got pounded on Sunday, but he had pitched very well in his previous four starts (2-0, 1.71).

** Two other injury notes: third baseman Brett Lawrie is still a month away from returning and pitcher Brandon Morrow suffered a setback and has yet to resume throwing.

filling out my second All-Star ballot

With basketball and hockey seasons complete, the end of June means that the Major League Baseball All-Star Game is right around the corner and we are nearly exactly at the midpoint of the season.

I posted my first ballot a month ago and there are some changes as streaks and slumps have taken their turn and real All-Stars have have established their resumes. Earlier this week I posted my All-Scrubs team; you may notice some of those "scrubs" are turning into stars.

Along with your traditional home runs and batting average, my favorite baseball statistics are:

• On-base percentage (hits plus walks plus hit-by-pitches)
• Extra-bases (homers, doubles, triples, stolen bases)
• Runs produced (runs scored plus runs batted in minus home runs)

After all, getting on base, moving around the diamond and producing runs are like the hokey-pokey: that’s what it’s all about. Those aren't the only stats I'm judging on, and defense is also considered.

American League

Designated hitter: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers. Miggy will start at third base and will likely set the record for most votes, but I prefer him as the DH. If Davis continues to kill the baseball Cabrera won't win another Triple Crown, but as we stand he's on pace for .370 average (.462 OBP), 40 home runs, 150 RBI and 115 runs.

First base: Chris Davis, Orioles. One of my favorite players to watch. Crush is hitting .333 and on pace for 54 homers and 140 RBI.

Second base: Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox. Pedroia may be the toughest guy in baseball to get out. He has an on-base percentage of .394 and is one of only two players to have more walks than strikeouts.

Third base: Manny Machado, Orioles. Still 20 years old, the New Manny may be the best of baseball's new stars. Machado is two hits short of Miguel Cabrera for the league lead, and with 34 has nine more doubles than anyone else. He's also on his way to a Gold Glove at the hot corner.

Shortstop: J.J. Hardy, Orioles. It's been a tale of two seasons for Hardy-
    -- Before May 2 (29 games): .188, 3 HR, 15 RBI
    -- After May 2 (48 games): .315, 12 HR, 29 RBI
Hardy has played shortstop every game (all but three innings) for the Orioles. He doesn't look very big, but he's his way to hitting the most homers among AL shortstops for the third year in a row.

Catcher: Joe Mauer, Twins. Superior slash line .330/.413/.594 (AVG/OBP/SLG), Mauer leads all AL catchers in hits, doubles, on-base percentage and runs produced.

Center field: Mike Trout, Angels. Leads AL in extra bases (58), is second in runs, and fourth in hits.

Left field: Adam Jones, Orioles. Yes, the fourth O's player on the ballot (and another center fielder). Jones leads AL outfielders in runs produced (93), hits, and tied with Trout with 22 doubles Most amazing, Jones has not taken a walk since May 18.

Right field: Nelson Cruz, Rangers. Jose Bautista is one of my favorite players, but Rangers fans would probably kill me if I don't include anybody from their first place team. Cruz is fifth in the AL in homers (19) and RBI (55).

Pitcher: Max Scherzer, Tigers. Could go with Yu Darvish here, but he hasn't won a game in over a month due to no run support, while Scherzer hasn't needed any (2.02 ERA, 6-0 since May 21). Scherzer is 11-0 and is second in WHIP and strikeouts.

National League

First base: Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks. Votto still has a sizeable lead in on-base percentage, but Goldy has a significant edge in runs produced and extra bases, including home runs. Goldy has been better defensively too, while Votto has more errors than any other first baseman. At this point, Goldschmidt is the MVP.

Second base: Matt Carpenter, Cardinals. Ah, the first of the scrubs to make an appearance. It isn't much of a debate though; Carpenter leads all NL second basemen in on-base percentage, runs, hits and doubles, and his team has baseball's best record.

Third base: David Wright, Mets. The Captain has taken off in the last three weeks (which conveniently corresponds with when my fantasy team acquired him). Wright leads all NL third basemen in all three of my favorite categories: on-base percentage, extra bases and runs produced. Easy pick, especially with the game at Citi Field.

Shortstop: Jean Segura, Brewers. Troy Tulowitzki was on his way to another All-Star game start easily until he unfortunately got hurt. But Segura is certainly deserving, and as mentioned previously, he's hitting .336 with speed and power.

Catcher: Yadier Molina, Cardinals. He may be the greatest defensive catcher and manager of a pitching staff of our generation, and then notice that he's leading the NL in batting average. Like Wright he leads his position in on-base percentage, extra bases and runs produced.

Center field: Carlos Gomez, Brewers. In his sixth season Gomez looks like a star. He's got a great balance of speed, power, average, and Gold Glove defense.

Left field: Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies. CarGo has been the best run-producing machine this side of Cabrera and Davis, and leads the league in extra bases. CarGo is batting around .300 and on pace for 44 home runs, 40 doubles, 27 stolen bases, 120 RBI and 128 runs. Smells like an All-Star to me.

Right field: Andrew McCutchen, Pirates. Power numbers are down but McCutchen is still getting on base, hitting doubles, stealing bases and scoring runs. McCutchen is one of the most exciting players in baseball.

Designated hitter: Joey Votto, Reds. Hitting .326 and leading the league in walks means that Votto is an on-base machine. The strange thing is that while playing with another on-base percentage machine in front of him, he has just 37 RBI. But again, that has a lot to do with having nobody scary behind him in the lineup and getting tons of walks.

Pitcher: Matt Harvey, Mets. There will be a riot in New York if Matt Harvey is not starting the All-Star Game at Citi Field. The new Mr. Met has been the most dominant pitcher in baseball and according to ESPN's Tim Kurkjian, Harvey's on-base percentage plus slugging (OPS) against, one of the best indicator stats for pitchers, is better than anything the league has seen since Pedro Martinez in his heyday. That means no one gets on base and no one drives the ball off him.

baseball's All-Scrub Stars

Closing in on the All-Star Game, everyone knows about Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano, Chris Davis, Buster Posey, and Joey Votto. But there have been plenty of surprises by guys you've never heard of or never expected it from that have busted through and could snag their first Midsummer Classic selection.

Here are All-Star lineups from guys that either weren't on the map a year ago or have been quiet for much of their careers but are now making a splash: the All-Scrub Stars.

National League

Catcher: Evan Gattis, Braves. Gattis took an opportunity provided by Brian McCann's injury to break into the scene and earn NL Rookie of the Month for both April and May and leads NL catchers with 14 home runs, many in clutch situations. Not bad for a guy that left a college baseball scholarship for drug rehab and then worked as a parking valet and at a pizza parlor.

First base: Freddie Freeman, Braves. Freeman missed 13 games with an injury but is still on pace for 100 RBI (third among NL first basemen) and is hitting .304.


Second base: Matt Carpenter, Cardinals. A big and surprising reason the Cardinals have the league's best record, Carpenter leads NL second basemen with 56 runs scored, 21 doubles, and .403 on-base percentage.

Third base: Pedro Alvarez, Pirates. Pedro is really heating up, hitting .305 in June with 9 homers and 22 RBI, helping the Pirates stay among the best and most surprising teams in baseball. Overall, he has a significant lead among NL third basemen with 19 homers and 51 RBI.

Shortstop: Jean Segura, Brewers. The 23 year-old Brewers rookie is probably the best player nobody has heard of. Segura is one hit away from being the first in the NL to get 100 (batting .336), is second in steals, and has 11 home runs.

Center field: Carlos Gomez, Brewers. Like Segura, he's doing it all: .313 average, 12 homers, 15 steals, 85 hits, 18 doubles, and plays Gold Glove calibur center field. It may surprise you that Gomez is the league-leader in wins above replacement (WAR).

Right field: Gerardo Parra, Diamondbacks. The leadoff man in Arizona has been a major contributor for the first place D-Backs. He's now hitting .315 with 94 hits and 49 extra bases. He should be smarter on the basepaths though; he leads the league by getting caught stealing nine times.

Left field: Domonic Brown, Phillies. Finally getting regular time as a starter, Brown has displayed legitimate power. After a terrible beginning to the season where he got booed at home, from April 23 to June 8 (six weeks) Brown hit 17 home runs and raised his average from .206 to .293.

Pitcher: Jeff Locke, Pirates. Locke, who leads the NL in ERA (2.01), has not lost since his first start on April 7. He has given up 27 less hits than innings pitched.

American League

Catcher:  Jason Castro, Astros. People in Houston haven't even heard of this guy. But the backstop fore the Astros leads all AL catchers in extra bases (10 homers, 22 doubles, 2 stolen bases).

First base: Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays. He's hardly a scrub, but EE is following up his breakout in 2012 with another monster season (21 homers, 63 RBI). It's also extraordinary to note that this slugger has struck out just 39 times in 75 games.

Second base: Howie Kendrick, Angels. On a team with Trout, Pujols, Hamilton and Trumbo, it's Kendrick that leads the team with a .323 batting average (fifth in the AL) and is tied with Trout for the team lead with 94 hits.

Third base: Josh Donaldson, Athletics. In a loaded group of AL third basemen (Cabrera, Longoria, and Beltre) everyone knows about the 20 year-old phenom New Manny in Baltimore, but not so much the man at the hot corner in Oakland. Donaldson is leading the way for the A's with .305/.373/.488 (AVG/OBP/SLG), 10 home runs and 46 RBI.

Shortstop: Jed Lowrie, Athletics. Lowrie spent his first four seasons on the bench in Boston, then was shuttled to Houston before being traded to Oakland last winter. Now at age 29 he is a big reason the A's are battling the Rangers for the division, batting .304 with 21 doubles.

Center field: Brett Gardner, Yankees. The most consistent Yankee in 2013, the speedy Gardner has taken over the leadoff spot in Jeter's absence, hitting for average (.287) and even showing some power (6 home runs). He also plays outstanding defense.

Right field: Daniel Nava, Red Sox. A career fourth or fifth outfielder, Nava earned his place as a regular starter for the Red Sox and has stayed a remarkably consistent producer in the middle of the first place Red Sox lineup. He has 10 homers, 45 RBI, 42 runs, and an on-base percentage of .372 as a switch hitter.

Left field: Nate McLouth, Orioles. After being an All-Star five years ago McLouth has been largely forgettable until now. He is producing once again as the leadoff man for the strong Baltimore club, getting on base (.366) and getting himself into scoring position (24 stolen bases). McLouth walks a lot and doesn't strike out.

Pitcher: Hisashi Iwakuma, Mariners. Seattle has two stud pitchers, including the breakout Iwakuma. The Japanese pitcher leads the AL with a .238 opponents' on-base percentage and is second in ERA at 2.26.

quick baseball news and notes: Week 12

I’ve spent the last couple weeks in the process of moving across country, and am still living in a hotel, so I haven’t had a chance to write much lately and missed last week’s baseball report. But here’s something.

** On May 26 the White Sox were at 24-24. After that they were an abysmal 5-17, but looking at how they got there is laughable. 12 of those 17 losses were against the Cubs, Mariners, Blue Jays, Astros, and Twins.

** After falling 10 games under .500 on June 4 the Blue Jays have been on fire, winning 11 straight and 14 of 16 games. And contrary to the White Sox, they have risen to the competition. Outside of those three games against the White Sox, 13 of those wins were against winning teams: San Francisco, Texas, Colorado and Baltimore.

** Defensive Play of the Week: Normally the DH, Tigers Victor Martinez is not known for his glove but he made this ridiculous play at first base on Sunday. He fumbled the ball but then flipped it no-look behind him to get the out. Check this out.


Players of the Week

    AL: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers. You’ve probably heard of this guy. In a big week against the Red Sox and Orioles pitchers couldn’t find a way to get Miggy out. He got on base twenty times including a pair of doubles and homers and knocked in 6 runs. Cabrera has been the Player of the Month twice (in two months) but this is surprisingly his first PotW.

    NL: Pedro Alvarez, Pirates. Alvarez had a huge week, including four straight multi-hit games including a home run in each! Guess who has the second-best record in baseball? That would be Pittsburgh.

stats n' facts Week 10: long games

There were two crazy days of free baseball this week.

** Saturday, the terrible Marlins and awful Mets went into the 20th inning tied 1-1 until the Marlins broke through with a run. The Amazings were shut out of the last 18 innings (that's two full games), went 0-19 with runners in scoring position (is that a record?) and stranded 22 runners on base. Against the Miami Marlins. And there were actually spectators still in the stadium at the end of this epic matchup.

Miami and New York are no strangers to long meetings. April 29 they went 15 innings, and Sunday (the day after going 20), they went into extras again, although just one extra.

Perhaps it was appropriate to play an extra game (or two). The Mets/Marlins were rained out on Friday, and the Mets were also rained out on Thursday while Miami had a day off, so there  was certainly not a logjam in the bullpens. The scheduled starter for Saturday before the rainout was Shaun Marcum, and he pitched 8 innings of relief, and he was terrific, retiring 16 straight batters before running out of gas and allowing three singles in the 20^th inning. According to Jayson Stark, this was the third time this season that a reliever has thrown 100 pitches in a game. 

A few minutes earlier, the Blue Jays finally scored to beat the Rangers in 18 innings. They won it when (with two outs) Ross Wolf made a bad pickoff attempt at first, allowing Emilio Bonifacio to race all the way to third, and he scored on a single by Rajai Davis.

This was the first time in major league history that we had an 18 inning and 20 inning game on the same day.

** But those were not the only marathons of the week. The White Sox and Mariners went scoreless into the 14^th inning on Wednesday and that was where the scoring began. Chicago scored five runs in the 14^th, only to completely blow that lead in the bottom of the inning, but scored a pair of runs in the 16^th to win it. So after playing 13 innings with zero runs, the two teams scored 12 runs in innings #14-16.

So those were three games this week that went 5.5+ hours long.

** There are surprise teams (good = Diamondbacks, Red Sox, Pirates; bad = Angels, Dodgers, Blue Jays) and then there are streaky teams. 

   - On May 16 the Oakland Athletics were seven and a half games back of the Texas Rangers in the West. Just a little bit over three weeks later the A’s were leading in the division. Prior to losing a pair this weekend in Chicago, Oakland was 18-3 since May 17.

   - Atlanta has been a streaky team all year. After sprinting out of the gate 12-1, the Braves stumbled greatly 10-17 over the next month. Since then they are 17-6, and hold a comfortable seven and a half game lead in the NL East.

   - Cleveland has been very hot and cold all year. In April they went on a 3-10 slump. The next week began a hot 18-4 stretch to get into first place. That was immediately followed with their current cold run, where the Indians are just 4-15 since May 21. It doesn’t get any easier this week with a trip to Arlington.

   - It is widely agreed that the Marlins are the worst team in baseball. Well, the Mets have lost 7 of their last 8 meetings against the Marlins this year (despite Matt Harvey pitching in three of those). So what does that say about the team in Queens?

The good news for Mets fans = you don't face the Marlins again until July 29!

The bad news = there are no minor league teams on the schedule

** Weird stat of the Week (actually two weeks): Since May 27, Padres shortstop and leadoff man Everth Cabrera has been red hot, getting on base 30 times (in 14 games). But he has made it to home just 3 times. (He's only knocked in 4 runs, too). More like 'Useless Teammates of the Week'...

** Terrific Teammates of the Week: On Wednesday, Rockies Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki combined to hit 5 home runs and 9 RBI against the Reds.

Players of the Week

Change things up and go with leadoff hitters this week.

   * AL: Brett Gardner, Yankees. Surprisingly, it was the speedy center fielder who carried the Yankees to a 6-1 week. Gardner got on base 15 times, took 7 extra bases (five doubles, a homer and stolen base), and produced 10 runs for an offensively challenged Pinstripes team.

   * NL: Yasiel Puig, Dodgers. The way things have been with Kemp and Ethier, you wonder why the Dodgers didn't go to their young phenom outfielder earlier. After tearing it up in Spring Training, Puig picked up right where he left off since getting called up Monday. How about this MLB debut: 13 hits (including five multi-hit games), four home runs, two doubles, and 10 RBI. 

Baseball Power Report: Month 2 (Week 9)

A third of the way through the season, it’s time for the early June Power Report. For each team I have a ranking and a few interesting stats/observations for not just last week, but also the last month and the season to date. I tried to keep everything consistent, but some stats are based on Saturday, some on Sunday. Enjoy!

30. Marlins. If April wasn’t bad enough, the Marlins scored just 79 runs in 28 games in the month of May, running their season total to 152 runs in 55 games. They rank last in runs, doubles, homers, average, on-base percentage, slugging, and hit into the third most double plays. When your team leader in batting average is at .228, that explains a lot. Their pitching yields the highest opponents’ on-base percentage in the NL. Miami is actually 6-3 against the Mets, but 10-39 versus everyone else. On the bright side, slugger Giancarlo Stanton should come back sometime this month, and Miami plays the Mets again this week!

29. Astros. Just like the Marlins can’t hit, the Lastros can’t pitch. They rank last in earned runs, unearned runs, walks, hits, doubles, triples, home runs, batting average against, on-base percentage, and run differential. Astros batters have struck out an amazing 523 times, a record pace of 9.5 whiffs a game, while their opponents have struck out just 353 times. Houston does have a 13-6 record against the Angels, Mariners and Rockies, but are 7-31 against the rest of the league.

(Just like last month, the Marlins and Astros are so bad that for the rest of the league, if I say worst/lowest/fewest/ most/highest, it means among everyone else.)

28. Mets. So much for the excitement of sweeping the cross-town rivals. Matt Harvey is still 5-0 and a reason to watch the Mets, but the rest of the Amazin’s are 17-32. And as noted, New York is 3-6 against the miserable Marlins. Poor starting pitching, poor bullpen, poor hitting, poor fielding…

27. Brewers. Milwaukee had a month to forget. Even with their win over the Phillies on Friday, the Brewers were only 6-22 in May and went from half game back of the Cardinals to 15 back. Milwaukee’s pitching has significantly underperformed, especially starters Yovani Gallardo, Wily Peralta, Marco Estrada and Kyle Lohse. They do have one of the league’s most productive outfields with Ryan Braun, Carlos Gomez and Norichika Aoki, and shortstop Jean Segura leads the league with a .354 batting average.

26. Padres. Figuring out the Padres All-Star rep will be a real challenge. Isn’t much to say about this team.

25. Cubs. Chicago has a nice foundation of starting pitchers. Jeff Samardzija, Travis Wood and Scott Feldman all have an ERA under 3 and the staff’s batting average against is league-best .231. Anthony Rizzo leads the team with 10 homers and 36 RBI but he should have a lot more; he’s hitting .175 with runners in scoring position. Cubs have NL-best .805 OPS at home, and NL-worst .619 OPS on the road.

24. Twins. To show how bad the Twins pitching has been, they have registered a quality start (6 innings, 3 earned runs or less) just one-third of the time. None of the Twins starting pitchers have recorded even 30 strikeouts yet this season.

23. Royals. A month ago they were at #14 but I expected they would have a rough month. Yes they sure did, going on a 4-19 skid. James Shields went 0-4 in five starts, despite giving up two or fewer runs four times. Mike Moustakas is batting .081 (3 for 37) with runners in scoring position. The Royals have 29 home runs; their pitchers have allowed 66.

22. Mariners. M’s have two pitchers with ERA’s under 2.40 and three pitchers with ERA’s over 5.50. Michael Morse has just 12 RBI since April 11.

21. Dodgers. It is really strange to see that the Dodgers can’t get any higher than this with all the talent (or at least money) on their roster. One of the biggest problems is that they can’t get hits when it counts. Dodgers hit .265 with bases empty (5th in baseball), but .233 with runners in scoring position (5th worst) and just .146 with the bases loaded. Before landing on the disabled list, Matt Kemp had just 2 home runs in 51 games. That’s not the end of the trouble, as fellow outfielder Carl Crawford also joined Kemp on the DL Monday.

20. Blue Jays. Toronto’s rotation stability was supposed to be their biggest strength; instead it has been their biggest weakness. Due to injury and ineffectiveness, the Blue Jays have already used eleven different starting pitchers, and just as Josh Johnson is ready to return, Brandon Morrow and Ramon Ortiz get hurt. Things are getting better overall, especially on offense where in May the team OBP was .337, up from .294 in April. The biggest problem is nobody else in the division is losing.

19. White Sox. It’s hard to describe just how bad the Sox offense is, especially in the AL with a designated hitter. They have scored 186 runs in 54 games, .289 OBP, and have 428:128 K:BB ratio. Yet a week ago they reached .500 at 24-24, a testament of some really good pitching (Chris Sale, Jake Peavy).

18. Angels. Just when things were starting to turn around the Angels lost three in a row at home to the Astros. Josh Hamilton should have stayed in Texas; he’s hitting a woeful .216 as an Angel. At least Mike Trout is exciting, and Jered Weaver is finally healthy again.

17. Rockies. Still have the best offense in the National League, and even on the road they have the best slugging percentage and OPS. Carlos Gonzalez is a big reason why, leading the NL with 42 extra bases. Jorge De La Rosa is 5-0 with an ERA of 2.45 at Coors Field.

16. Phillies. Read about Domonic Brown below. As someone who owns Cole Hamels on multiple fantasy teams, I am painfully aware that the Phillies are 1-11 in Hamels’ games. At least Cliff Lee is making sure that one of the four Phillies making $20 million this year is playing like it.

15. Nationals. Bryce Harper is on the DL, Stephen Strasburg has a back strain, Nats have lowest OBP in baseball, batting just .212 on the road, 8-14 since May 10… I am much less optimistic about the Nats than I was one or two months ago.

14. Giants. Pitching has been surprisingly poor in San Francisco, where the staff has only 23 quality starts in 57 games. On April 28, Marco Scutaro was hitting just .215; since then he’s hitting a sizzling.418.

13. Indians. Mark Reynolds and Carlos Santana followed up their .389 and .301 April with .200 and .208 May, yet the team played well anyway, going 18-12 during the month and is right up there with Detroit in the Central.

12. Rays. Those Rays that we all figured wouldn’t be able to score actually led all of baseball in runs in May. Since starting 14-18, Tampa Bay is 17-7, even without David Price.

11. Yankees. The Bronx “Bombers” have scored fewer runs than the Astros and Twins. Teixeira and Youkilis are back (and Tex finally started producing Monday night) but more often than not it seems the Yankees just can’t score runs with their lineup. Fortunately, the pitching overall has really been outstanding; especially in May when they had the lowest ERA in the AL (3.25).

10. Diamondbacks. Paul Goldschmidt is your NL MVP through the first 56 games, batting .337 with 13 homers and 73 runs produced. Not only is Patrick Corbin 9-0, but the D-Backs have won all 11 games he pitched.

9. Orioles. As AL Beast Notebook writer, I watch a lot of Orioles games. They are really one of the more entertaining teams in baseball. Chris Davis (yeah, I write about him every week) is hitting .357 with MLB-most 20 home runs. But everybody contributes: Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, Matt Wieters, J.J. Hardy and Nate McLouth are all doing great things. The Orioles have hit 81 home runs (most in MLB), but their pitchers have given up 78.

8. Athletics. No team is hotter right now than the Oakland A’s, who have won 14 of their last 16 games, and their next 13 games are against pitching-deficient Brewers, and hitting-deficient White Sox, Yankees and Mariners. Bartolo Colon has issued just 4 walks in 70 innings. A’s have the best bullpen ERA and OBP in the American League. A’s batters have the league’s most walks (and hit-by-pitches).

7. Pirates. They don’t do much hitting (shutout for first nine innings in four of last five games), and their starting rotation isn’t very scary but the bullpen is practically unhittable. While the Pirates bullpen has thrown more innings than just about everyone the batting average against them is just .210. In his first year as a full-time closer Jason Grilli is 22/22 in saves, has given up just 12 hits and struck out 41 batters in 25 innings. Pirates, Reds and Cardinals each won at least 19 games in May; no other team did.

6. Braves. Despite the expectations otherwise, Atlanta’s pitching is back near the top while the offense has been just average. Justin Upton hit 12 home runs in April and just two in May. Dan Uggla, B.J. Upton and Jason Heyward are hitting .161 after 448 at-bats. Kris Medlen has just one win in his last nine starts despite a respectable 3.48 ERA. Mike Minor is having an All-Star year, currently 7-2 with 2.48 ERA and holding opposing hitters to a .203 batting average. Freddie Freeman batting 20/40 with runners in scoring position.

5. Red Sox. Boston had a tough stretch earlier in the month losing 9 of 11, but other than that the season has been smooth sailing for the Red Sox. A favorable May schedule makes way for a much, much tougher June, starting off with the Rangers again. As demonstrated last night, David Ortiz is killing righties, hitting .386 with nearly as many home runs (7) as strikeouts (9). Clay Buchholz continues to impress, leading the AL in wins, ERA, and opponents’ OPS. It’s nothing new, but there’s probably no big league player I’d rather have my son emulate than Dustin Pedroia.

4. Reds. Second best offense and second best pitching in the NL is a great combination. I’ve written a lot about Votto and Choo but there’s a reason: the duo are both getting on base in over 49% of their plate appearances against righties. There is no weak link in the rotation; everyone has an ERA under 3.9. And Aroldis Chapman has racked up 43 Ks in 25 innings.

3. Rangers. Weird to see, but even with a bunch of rookies and second year guys the Rangers have a better rated pitching staff than offense. In fact, Texas has the lowest team ERA in the American League, including a 2.83 ERA at the hitter-friendly Ballpark in Arlington. Adrian Beltre is having another monster year, but he may get lost in an overloaded third base All-Star group.

2. Tigers. Two months into the season and here’s what we have: four top of the rotation arms (Verlander, Scherzer, Fister and Anibal Sanchez), the reigning MVP Miguel Cabrera (the favorite for another one), a shortstop and right fielder both hitting over .310, Prince Fielder, and World Series experience. They are a pedestrian 29-24 right now, but that’s still about five games better than one year ago. The Tigers have one of the best offenses in baseball and a pitching staff good enough to again go deep in the postseason.

1. Cardinals. The one thing they lacked was a closer and they have certainly found a good one. Edward Mujica has been lights out, allowing just 14 baserunners in 24 innings for a 0.58 WHIP and 1.88 ERA. He has not walked a batter since April 3, and is 17/17 in save chances since taking over the job.

The starting pitching has been perhaps the best group in baseball, led by Adam Wainwright and Lance Lynn, but also rookie Shelby Miller (6-3, 1.82 ERA), who retired 27 straight batters in a game earlier this month. And top prospect Michael Wacha has also burst into the majors, providing even more quality depth.

And of course, it’s not only about pitching in St. Louis. The hitting has also been perhaps the best (and certainly the deepest) group in the National League. They are certainly on fire right now; four players had a May OBP over .410, and four hitters (Yadier Molina, Matt Carpenter, Allen Craig, and Carlos Beltran) are legitimate All-Stars. The most impressive feature of the 2013 Cards is clutch = .324 average and .427 on-base percentage with runners in scoring position and two outs. Tack on a 20-9 road record as the cherry on top.

Pitching, hitting, relief, and fielding (league’s lowest 19 errors) are why the St. Louis Cardinals are an easy pick for the best team in baseball.

Biggest Leap: White Sox (+6), Cardinals (+5)
Biggest Tumble: Nationals (-11), Royals (-9)

Players of the Week

   AL: Chris Davis, Orioles. Four more home runs this week as he collected 13 hits in 27 at-bats, but what may be more amazing is that pitchers didn’t walk him six games in a row.

   NL: Domonic Brown, Phillies. Brown has taken over by storm. Last week he hit .444 with 7 home runs and 13 RBI. 13 teams failed to hit 7 home runs. Brown now leads the NL with 16 bombs.

welcome back Tex, Youk and Andy! (four days too late?)

AL BEast Notebook - May 31

New York Yankees

** No better time to make changes than after getting swept by the cross-town Mets. Fortunately, some moves will be natural as some former All-Stars are returning from the disabled list. Kevin Youkilis and Mark Teixeira are set to play today (Friday) against the Red Sox.

The Yankees bats have really been quiet lately. Against the Mets, who owned the second-highest ERA in the National League, the Yankees could not muster more than one run in three of the four games. And while they did collect four runs in the other one, David Phelps allowed five Mets to score in the first inning. Not only that, but in each of the last three games the Yankees struck out at least nine times and didn’t earn a walk.

As well as the fill-ins have played, it is time for the backups to get back to being backups. The Yankees have gotten more out of Lyle Overbay than they could have hoped, and David Adams has shown he can be a valuable batter against lefties. For the time being (with Tex, Youk, Overbay, and Nix/Brignac all available for corner infield), Adams is likely to head back to the minors, along with pitcher Vidal Nuno.

** Andy Pettitte is scheduled to return and start Monday at the stadium against the Indians, and that will likely mean a pink slip for either Adam Warren, Preston Claiborne, or Ivan Nova.

Boston Red Sox

** Speaking of returns, the Red Sox got a good performance in the season debut of Franklin Morales off the DL in a spot-start win over the Phillies Thursday night. Clay Buchholz has been out with a collarbone problem, but he is expected to be ready to pitch Sunday in a great matchup with Hiroki Kuroda.

** In each of the four games against the Phillies, Jacoby Ellsbury led off with a hit and came around to score off the bat of Dustin Pedroia. And in Thursday’s game Ellsbury didn’t stop there. The speedy outfielder got on base four more times and stole five bases, a Red Sox single game record. Strangely, despite Ellsbury constantly putting himself into scoring position, he never touched home after those five steals. (It didn’t bother the team too much; Boston still scored nine runs.)

Tampa Bay Rays

** Pitching is still what it’s all about in Tampa Bay and there seems to be no shortage of arms to go around. This week THREE Rays make/made their season debut: Jake Odorizzi and Alex Colome started games the Rays won and Chris Archer starts Saturday. With David Price injured, Alex Cobb needing extra rest for his finger, and Jeremy Hellickson struggling, it definitely helps to play the Marlins. Even Roberto Hernandez pitched a gem. Archer will have a much tougher test in Cleveland this weekend, and next week starts with a trip to Detroit.

fixing baseball's over-aggressive scheduling

This is baseball’s “Interleague Rivalry Week”, where all thirty teams play a regional foe from the other league in a home-and-away four game series. For some cities like LA, Chicago and New York it makes a lot of sense. For others, it seems the league is trying a bit too hard to create something that isn’t there. Anyway, here's your latest "what's wrong with baseball."

Here are my issues:

1. Interleague play has run its course and isn’t interesting anymore. The American and National Leagues have different rules and styles and no team cares to change everything for four days. But Bud Selig decided to even out the leagues, moving the Astros from NL to AL, putting 15 teams in each and requiring interleague games to occur every day of the season, not just four weeks of the season. Fine. So why do we STILL have a week where EVERYBODY is in interleague? Isn’t every day enough?

If Bud and his buds still want to have an Interleague Play Week, then enough of the “interleague every day” deal! It’s dumb.

2. I like the idea of having a Rivalry Week where the Mets and Yankees play, along with the Cubs and White Sox. But do we really need to have the Mariners/Padres and Braves/Blue Jays go in the same manner of two home/two away? Is there any special meaning with the Twins and Brewers? This totally cheapens the experience and takes away from the unique spirit that should be there. If you want to make a special week of rivalries, then have those teams that don’t have a natural NL/AL regional rival play a divisional opponent. Then it is special for everyone.

Solution: Make it a true Rivalry Week. Here is how I would shape it. First, keep the interleague ones that make sense…

   ** Yankees vs. Mets ** Dodgers vs. Angels
   ** Cubs vs. White Sox ** Nationals vs. Orioles
   ** Giants vs. Athletics ** Indians vs. Reds
   ** Rays vs. Marlins (sure, why not?)
   ** Cardinals vs. Royals

Match up the others in important divisional and regional meetings…

   ** Braves vs. Phillies ** Red Sox vs. Blue Jays
   ** Rangers vs. Astros ** Tigers vs. Twins
   ** Pirates vs. Brewers ** Diamondbacks vs. Rockies

(We are left with the Mariners and Padres, so maybe baseball got that part right after all…)

Great, that works for everyone! We have a plan that makes every team (well, 28/30) have a relevant series at the same time, whether it be a classic local clash or a marquee divisional matchup. And maybe over time, the fans in Seattle and the fans in San Diego will decide that North Pacific and South Pacific is worth fighting over, too.

filling out my first All-Star ballot

All-Star voting is underway and fifty games into the season is a good enough sample size to identify some selections. These will likely change a little before July 16, so don't kill me for omitting the first place Red Sox, Rangers and Cardinals. But hey, this is my ballot.

Along with your traditional home runs and batting average, my favorite baseball statistics are:

• On-base percentage (hits plus walks plus hit-by-pitches)
• Extra-bases (homers, doubles, triples, stolen bases)
• Runs produced (runs scored plus runs batted in minus home runs)

After all, getting on base, moving around the diamond and producing runs are like the hokey-pokey: that’s what it’s all about. Those aren't the only stats I'm judging on, and defense is also considered.

American League

First base: Chris Davis, Orioles. 17 home runs, 18 doubles, .344 batting average and 29 walks. He also plays solid defensively at first. Davis has become one of my favorite sluggers.

Second base: Robinson Cano, Yankees. The way Cano leads the Yankees with nothing resembling an All-Star around him on the active roster to the top of the division for nearly two months is amazing. One of the best players in baseball.

Third base: Manny Machado, Orioles. Okay, this spot should and will go to Miguel Cabrera, but this is my chance to put in a plug for one of the brightest rising stars in the game. The 20-year old phenom is hitting .335, leads the league with 23 doubles, and is tield with Cabrera for most hits in baseball. And it's safe to see we all would rather watch this Web Gem collector flash the leather at third than Cabrera.

Shortstop: Johnny Peralta, Tigers. Cabrera's teammate on the left side gets my vote at short. Batting .400 in May, Peralta, who has always been a solid hitter and fielder, is taking advantage of injuries to regular All-Stars Jeter and Reyes.

Catcher: Joe Mauer, Twins. What's there to say about a catcher batting .330 who also collects lots of walks and smacks doubles?

Center field: Mike Trout, Angels. The wonder kid is among the league leaders in extra base hits, stolen bases and runs produced, and is a human highlight reel in center field.

Left field: Adam Jones, Orioles. It's amazing how last year's Baltimore superstar is now third on the team, even though he's still hitting .318 with power, speed, and a recent Gold Glove on his shelf.

Right field: Jose Bautista, Blue Jays. After missing much of last year and starting slow, it's nice to see Joey Bats back to doing his thing. Especially at the Rogers Center. After sitting out four games with an injury last month, Bautista's on-base percentage at home since April 19 (20 games) is .538. Wow.

Designated hitter: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers. Miggy will be at third but he should probably be the DH instead. Let's see... he leads the league by a mile in on-base percentage and runs produced, he's second in home runs, he's the reigning MVP and has a good chance to win the Triple Crown again.

Pitcher: Chris Sale, White Sox. While Clay Buchholz has pitched lights out against the Twins, White Sox and Astros, Sale has pitched very well against some of the best lineups in the AL (Angels twice, Indians and Rangers). He's allowed 20 less hits than innings pitched. And other than one bad game in Cleveland, Sale has a 1.51 ERA and a quality start in each game. And he did it last year, too.

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National League

First base: Joey Votto, Reds. One of the best measures for a hitter is how often he is walked. Joey Votto has 44 bases-on-balls, ten more than everyone else except his teammate Shin-Soo Choo. If a .354 batting average isn't impressive enough, a Bonds-esque .477 on-base percentage is.

Second base: Brandon Phillips, Reds. The slick-fielding vet doesn't do much when the bases are empty (awful .260 OBP), but takes advantage of the plentiful times Votto and Choo get on base to the tune of an impressive .478 OBP with runners in scoring position and league-high 43 RBI and 68 runs produced.

Third base: David Wright, Mets. The Amazin's captain is having another stellar season. Some interesting stats: 4 triples, 11 stolen bases, 27 walks.

Shortstop: Jean Segura, Brewers. Probably the toughest decision of the whole process is Segura or Troy Tulowitzki. Tulo's home splits at Coors are staggering, but not much different than Segura's impressive road splits. Segura has higher average, on-base percentage, 14-0 steals edge, and comparable power numbers.

Catcher: Buster Posey, Giants. The reigning MVP and World Series champ is hitting .304 and a ton of walks brings his OBP to .394, fifth highest in the NL.

Center field: Shin-Soo Choo, Reds. What do you want in a leadoff hitter? How about a .450 on-base percentage with power?

Left field: Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies. CarGo has been one of the most productive hitters in baseball doing it all: .311/.388 and among the leaders in homers, doubles, walks, stolen bases, and runs produced.

Right field: Justin Upton, Braves. It comes down to a couple Brewers and a struggling Bryce Harper, and Upton beats them out right now as the Braves are in first and Upton's hot start is holding up.

Designated Hitter: Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks. Goldy is the primary reason Arizona is in first place out west. He's pretty much Top 2 or 3 in just about every offensive category.

Pitcher: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers. Tip my hat to Matt Harvey, but I still think Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball right now.

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