Week 7 Preview

Last week was not a good week for my picks. Here’s hoping this week is better. The schedule seems very straightforward, which means there will probably be plenty of surprises.

Five Big Games

- Ravens vs. Texans: Hard to believe but of the 16 teams in the AFC, only the Houston Texans and Baltimore Ravens are above .500. Terrell Suggs may be able to get on the field in an incredibly quick recovery from a torn Achilles, but he will be far from full-strength and teammates Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb will not be out there, and Haloti Ngata is also dealing with a bad knee. All that bad news involving key defensive players is even worse considering the Texans high-power offense is on the other side. Ray Rice is getting a surprisingly low number of touches; only 97 carries in the first 6 games (one less than Reggie Bush). He had 20+ in 6 of last 7 games in 2011 (all 6 were wins). Texans are coming off getting lit up like a Christmas tree by Aaron Rodgers and the Packers at home. Arian Foster leads the NFL with 8 touchdowns.

- Jets vs. Patriots: The first installment of the annual grudge match between Rex and Bill. One team looks like the best in the league and the other looks like the worst in the league, but here we sit after 6 games and both are 3-3. Rex Ryan says Tim Tebow may be used at running back, which is about the only interesting thing we can say about the Jets team. This is a bad time to face the Patriots, coming off a surprise loss in Seattle, where it seemed they took the foot off the gas in the second half and it cost them.

- Seahawks vs. 49ers: While all four AFC East teams are 3-3, there is a three-team tie atop the NFC West at 4-2, including these two teams. Like we said about the Patriots, the 49ers are coming off a humiliating home defeat against the Giants so an important divisional matchup is extra motivation. They came off their last loss with a 34-0 shutout win. The Seahawks have wins over the Cowboys, Packers and Patriots but have division losses to the Rams and Cardinals.

- Redskins vs. Giants: G-Men are perhaps the best team in the NFC but they are 0-2 in the division and were 0-2 last year versus the Redskins. Their win over the 49ers last week was probably the best team performance of the year in the NFL. Meanwhile, RG3 shook off a concussion to make probably the best play of the year, his 76 yard touchdown romp. Griffin and Alfred Morris have been the most productive running duo in the league, combining for 917 yards rushing. The Giants tend to struggle against running quarterbacks.

- Lions vs. Bears: Not a great matchup on paper, but a division rivalry game on Monday Night Football nonetheless. Bears defense has been the best unit in the league, and they are coming off a bye week plus an extra day off. They matchup against the top-ranked offense in the NFC (in yardage), although they are way down the list in points scored.

Upset Alert

Panthers over Cowboys
Titans over Bills

(8-4 overall)

Miller’s Fearless Picks

Four picks from the Five Big Games.

Patriots over Jets. New York may be coming off an impressive win and the Pats coming off a loss, but that timing is all the more reason to expect this to not be very competitive. New England’s offense is the best we’ve seen since the Greatest Show on Turf (2000 Rams) and the Jets don’t have enough stoppers on defense, nor playmakers on offense. I know, I’m a broken record every week about the Jets. 41-20

Texans over Ravens. Ravens defense is too banged up and they haven’t been very good anyway. I’m expecting a shootout with a lot of rushing yards. 31-28.

49ers over Seahawks. 49ers are too strong to lose two in a row at home. Still will be a low-scoring game. 20-16

Giants over Redskins. I would like it more if the Giants were on the road but still, the Redskins have the worst-ranked pass defense and Eli has Cruz, Nicks, and Hixon all ready to run. RG3 has been getting big hits and the G-Men have a strong pass rush. 38-20

(0-4 last week; yikes! 11-13 overall)

The Rest of the Games

Saints over Buccaneers 35-28
Packers over Rams 28-23
Panthers over Cowboys 21-20
Vikings over Cardinals 21-18
Titans over Bills 34-28
Colts over Browns 23-20
Raiders over Jaguars 27-19
Steelers over Bengals 24-23
Bears over Lions 27-24

(5-5 last week, 41-25 overall)