Wednesday, October 31, 2012
trick of treating in the NFL
We are halfway through the NFL season and what a season it has been! Going out begging for candy with my little son made me think of all the tricks and treats that have and will happen for football fans everywhere.
- Redskins vs. Panthers
This will be a Treat for NFL fans as the two most exciting young quarterbacks meet up. Both teams have terrible defenses which mean this will be a game full of fireworks for RGIII and Cam Newton. Cam Newton set all kinds of rookie records last year and halfway through the season, RGIII is right on pace.
- Falcons go for 8-0 against the Cowboys
Trick! For how many mistakes Tony Romo and the Cowboys make, they were one reversed call away from upsetting the Giants last week. Romo has been putting up huge numbers and the only thing stopping the Cowboys lately, besides the Bears defense, is themselves. Despite being 7-0, Matt Ryan and the Falcons have been surprisingly less effective at home than away. The three home wins included two last second field goals and a 6-point win over the Broncos. The Cowboys have been better on the road than at Cowboys Stadium, and have done a good job of coming back after losses. The way the NFL tends to go is the way you don’t expect. The Cowboys defense has been outstanding and the Falcons are due for a disappointment.
- Miami Dolphins 2012 Season
Treat! Rookie coach Joe Philbin is doing an amazing job leading a team most people picked to be headed for the top pick in the upcoming draft. Instead, Miami could be headed for games in January. Matt Moore showed everyone that he is the league’s best backup quarterback last week. At 4-3, the Fins still have tons of winnable games remaining: Colts, Titans, Bills twice, Seahawks at home, and Jags. A win in Indianapolis won’t be easy, but if they do, Miami could end up with a 7-game winning streak heading into December. If the Colts win, Andrew Luck could be headed for a playoff run and that would certainly be a treat.
- Packers look for their 4th win in a row against the Cardinals
Trick! Green Bay’s leading receiver Jordy Nelson is dealing with an injured hamstring and won’t test it until Friday. If he can’t go, the Packers will lose to the Cardinals. Aaron Rodgers is running out of weapons around him, and Arizona has already had success shutting down good quarterbacks like Tom Brady and Michael Vick. They got blown out by the 49ers recently, but so did the Packers in the season opener. With the Pack winning three in a row and Cardinals in a four game slide, both teams are due for a switch-a-roo and this is a game Ken Wisenhunt should be able to upset.
- Buccaneers a playoff contender?
Treat! Before the season I said that if either Atlanta or New Orleans slipped, Tampa Bay would sneak into contention. Well, the Saints have certainly slipped significantly. A win over the Raiders and either a Packers or Vikings loss would put the Bucs just half game back. And the remaining schedule is less daunting than it looked initially (Chargers, Panthers, Eagles, Saints, Rams). The Bucs losses were all by 7 or less points so they have probably played better than their record shows. It is still a long-shot, but Greg Schiano has this team playing tough and Josh Freeman is looking like the quarterback from ‘09 and ’10.
Saturday, October 20, 2012
playing the Blame Game in the Bronx
Oh, what a difference a week makes. The Yankees finished the season strong, grasping the best record in the American League. Many of their hitters were doing well and the pitchers were on a roll. Then the playoffs started and the whole lineup went into a prolonged slump, culminating in the most embarrassing postseason performances of my lifetime. Despite some excellent pitching, the Yankees could not figure out a way to score a run, other than the occasional late-inning homer by Ichiro and Raul Ibanez, and made the Detroit Tigers look like the greatest pitching staff the league has ever seen.
What happened? There is certainly a lot of blame to go around. Here are ten reasons why the Yankees lost the series.
1. Robinson Cano. Considering that the Yankees were unable to score any runs, you have to pin the most blame on their best hitter, Robinson Cano. The Yankees second baseman ended the season with nine consecutive multi-hit games, going 24-39 over that time. Then the playoffs switched on and his hitting switched off. In the ALDS, Cano went 1-18 and did not even work a walk. Including the last several games against the O’s, Cano got on base just once in 33 plate appearances, also obtaining the record for worst hitless drought in postseason history at 29 straight. He also loafed to first base every time. Tied in the sixth inning in Game 2 with a man on base, he hit a ball that the pitcher bobbled and still tossed softly underhand to first because Cano was just strolling casually down to first. An inning later he bobbled a routine play that let the go-ahead run score. The only intensity we see is him arguing a play at second base. Cano was never benched, and while he didn’t deserve to stay in there you have to win with your best or lose with your best. Cano is one of my favorite baseball players, but his performance this postseason was disgraceful and epitomized the Yankees failures.
2. Leaving them loaded. In Game 1, a game that eventually went into extra innings, the Yankees loaded the bases in the first, second, and sixth innings and failed to score a single run. That poor start cursed them the rest of the series.
3. Jeter’s injury. Not only did the Yankees lose Game 1, but they lost their captain and leader for the rest of the postseason to a broken ankle. The Yankees never recovered from that, playing without any spirit or fire, scoring just 2 runs the next 3 games.
4. Delmon Young. It's true, Detroit played in this series, too. The Tiger’s designated hitter knocked in a run in each of the four games, 6 RBI total. Batting after Cabrera and Fielder, Young was a key figure heading into the series and did what nobody on the Yankees could, get key hits.
5. Curtis Granderson. Can’t get much worse than this; the Grandyman struck out 7 times in 11 at bats and did not record a single hit in the series.
6. Girardi’s handling of third base/Eric Chavez/Alex Rodriguez. I understand that Girardi did not believe in Alex Rodriguez, especially against righties. He was 0-18 in the postseason against them and just 3-25 overall (all singles). But come on, he’s no worse than Eric Chavez. A-Rod’s replacement went 0-16 with 8 strikeouts, an error and one or two other misplayed balls. Girardi’s decision to bench A-Rod created such a media frenzy and distraction the whole week long. Alex Rodriguez received way too much blame for the loss. Of course, when he got his chance late in the closeout game he twice failed to get a hit. In the series, Yankees third basemen got 1 hit in 18 at bats.
7. All Tiger pitchers not named Jose Valverde. How’s this: in 38.1 innings that group gave up 2 runs. I blame it on an entire lineup going into a terrible slump for two weeks, but just like in 2006, everybody in the starting rotation pitched the game of their life against the Yankees in the playoffs.
8. Girardi’s handling of Phil Hughes. Yankees down 2 games to 0 facing Justin Verlander, Hughes was making one of the most important starts of his career. And then in the fourth inning after giving up the lead and then a walk, Joe came out, Hughes said he was fine, but Girardi took him out anyway with a “stiff back.” He was good enough to say, the next day, that he was available to pitch in Game 4. But when you already go to the bullpen with 21 outs left in the game, already trailing 1-0 to the best pitcher in baseball, the Yankee players looked deflated and defeated. Unless he has a broken ankle, how can you take your starter out in that situation?
9. C.C. Sabathia. Speaking of pitching, in an obvious must-win game, Sabathia getting an extra day of rest, the Yankees were counting on their ace to pitch like an ace. He immediately gave up a run in the first inning (and the way the Yankees were hitting, it seemed like it was 15-0), and couldn’t even make it out of the fourth. Sabathia has been a great Yankee, and maybe he was given too much pressure, but that is why he is making the big bucks. Here he was a big disappointment.
10. The Stats. Finally, it wasn’t just Cano, Granderson, and A-Rod. Here are the most staggering team numbers:
- Yankees scored in only 3 innings, failing to score in 36 innings.
- Yankees never held a lead at any point in any game in the series.
- Yankees hit a paltry .157 as a team, going 3-23 (.130) with runners in scoring position.
People will point to age as the reason they failed. But seeing that their five oldest players (Pettitte, Ibanez, Jeter, Ichiro and Kuroda) were the top performers for them in the postseason we can tell that was clearly not the case. Overall, it was the same things they struggled with all year that ended up causing their demise: an inability to get a big hit with men on base, Sabathia being far from a dominating ace, and a complete dependence on the long ball.
Thursday, October 18, 2012
Week 7 Preview
Last week was not a good week for my picks. Here’s hoping this week is better. The schedule seems very straightforward, which means there will probably be plenty of surprises.
Five Big Games
- Ravens vs. Texans: Hard to believe but of the 16 teams in the AFC, only the Houston Texans and Baltimore Ravens are above .500. Terrell Suggs may be able to get on the field in an incredibly quick recovery from a torn Achilles, but he will be far from full-strength and teammates Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb will not be out there, and Haloti Ngata is also dealing with a bad knee. All that bad news involving key defensive players is even worse considering the Texans high-power offense is on the other side. Ray Rice is getting a surprisingly low number of touches; only 97 carries in the first 6 games (one less than Reggie Bush). He had 20+ in 6 of last 7 games in 2011 (all 6 were wins). Texans are coming off getting lit up like a Christmas tree by Aaron Rodgers and the Packers at home. Arian Foster leads the NFL with 8 touchdowns.
- Jets vs. Patriots: The first installment of the annual grudge match between Rex and Bill. One team looks like the best in the league and the other looks like the worst in the league, but here we sit after 6 games and both are 3-3. Rex Ryan says Tim Tebow may be used at running back, which is about the only interesting thing we can say about the Jets team. This is a bad time to face the Patriots, coming off a surprise loss in Seattle, where it seemed they took the foot off the gas in the second half and it cost them.
- Seahawks vs. 49ers: While all four AFC East teams are 3-3, there is a three-team tie atop the NFC West at 4-2, including these two teams. Like we said about the Patriots, the 49ers are coming off a humiliating home defeat against the Giants so an important divisional matchup is extra motivation. They came off their last loss with a 34-0 shutout win. The Seahawks have wins over the Cowboys, Packers and Patriots but have division losses to the Rams and Cardinals.
- Redskins vs. Giants: G-Men are perhaps the best team in the NFC but they are 0-2 in the division and were 0-2 last year versus the Redskins. Their win over the 49ers last week was probably the best team performance of the year in the NFL. Meanwhile, RG3 shook off a concussion to make probably the best play of the year, his 76 yard touchdown romp. Griffin and Alfred Morris have been the most productive running duo in the league, combining for 917 yards rushing. The Giants tend to struggle against running quarterbacks.
- Lions vs. Bears: Not a great matchup on paper, but a division rivalry game on Monday Night Football nonetheless. Bears defense has been the best unit in the league, and they are coming off a bye week plus an extra day off. They matchup against the top-ranked offense in the NFC (in yardage), although they are way down the list in points scored.
Upset Alert
Panthers over Cowboys
Titans over Bills
(8-4 overall)
Miller’s Fearless Picks
Four picks from the Five Big Games.
Patriots over Jets. New York may be coming off an impressive win and the Pats coming off a loss, but that timing is all the more reason to expect this to not be very competitive. New England’s offense is the best we’ve seen since the Greatest Show on Turf (2000 Rams) and the Jets don’t have enough stoppers on defense, nor playmakers on offense. I know, I’m a broken record every week about the Jets. 41-20
Texans over Ravens. Ravens defense is too banged up and they haven’t been very good anyway. I’m expecting a shootout with a lot of rushing yards. 31-28.
49ers over Seahawks. 49ers are too strong to lose two in a row at home. Still will be a low-scoring game. 20-16
Giants over Redskins. I would like it more if the Giants were on the road but still, the Redskins have the worst-ranked pass defense and Eli has Cruz, Nicks, and Hixon all ready to run. RG3 has been getting big hits and the G-Men have a strong pass rush. 38-20
(0-4 last week; yikes! 11-13 overall)
The Rest of the Games
Saints over Buccaneers 35-28
Packers over Rams 28-23
Panthers over Cowboys 21-20
Vikings over Cardinals 21-18
Titans over Bills 34-28
Colts over Browns 23-20
Raiders over Jaguars 27-19
Steelers over Bengals 24-23
Bears over Lions 27-24
(5-5 last week, 41-25 overall)
Five Big Games
- Ravens vs. Texans: Hard to believe but of the 16 teams in the AFC, only the Houston Texans and Baltimore Ravens are above .500. Terrell Suggs may be able to get on the field in an incredibly quick recovery from a torn Achilles, but he will be far from full-strength and teammates Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb will not be out there, and Haloti Ngata is also dealing with a bad knee. All that bad news involving key defensive players is even worse considering the Texans high-power offense is on the other side. Ray Rice is getting a surprisingly low number of touches; only 97 carries in the first 6 games (one less than Reggie Bush). He had 20+ in 6 of last 7 games in 2011 (all 6 were wins). Texans are coming off getting lit up like a Christmas tree by Aaron Rodgers and the Packers at home. Arian Foster leads the NFL with 8 touchdowns.
- Jets vs. Patriots: The first installment of the annual grudge match between Rex and Bill. One team looks like the best in the league and the other looks like the worst in the league, but here we sit after 6 games and both are 3-3. Rex Ryan says Tim Tebow may be used at running back, which is about the only interesting thing we can say about the Jets team. This is a bad time to face the Patriots, coming off a surprise loss in Seattle, where it seemed they took the foot off the gas in the second half and it cost them.
- Seahawks vs. 49ers: While all four AFC East teams are 3-3, there is a three-team tie atop the NFC West at 4-2, including these two teams. Like we said about the Patriots, the 49ers are coming off a humiliating home defeat against the Giants so an important divisional matchup is extra motivation. They came off their last loss with a 34-0 shutout win. The Seahawks have wins over the Cowboys, Packers and Patriots but have division losses to the Rams and Cardinals.
- Redskins vs. Giants: G-Men are perhaps the best team in the NFC but they are 0-2 in the division and were 0-2 last year versus the Redskins. Their win over the 49ers last week was probably the best team performance of the year in the NFL. Meanwhile, RG3 shook off a concussion to make probably the best play of the year, his 76 yard touchdown romp. Griffin and Alfred Morris have been the most productive running duo in the league, combining for 917 yards rushing. The Giants tend to struggle against running quarterbacks.
- Lions vs. Bears: Not a great matchup on paper, but a division rivalry game on Monday Night Football nonetheless. Bears defense has been the best unit in the league, and they are coming off a bye week plus an extra day off. They matchup against the top-ranked offense in the NFC (in yardage), although they are way down the list in points scored.
Upset Alert
Panthers over Cowboys
Titans over Bills
(8-4 overall)
Miller’s Fearless Picks
Four picks from the Five Big Games.
Patriots over Jets. New York may be coming off an impressive win and the Pats coming off a loss, but that timing is all the more reason to expect this to not be very competitive. New England’s offense is the best we’ve seen since the Greatest Show on Turf (2000 Rams) and the Jets don’t have enough stoppers on defense, nor playmakers on offense. I know, I’m a broken record every week about the Jets. 41-20
Texans over Ravens. Ravens defense is too banged up and they haven’t been very good anyway. I’m expecting a shootout with a lot of rushing yards. 31-28.
49ers over Seahawks. 49ers are too strong to lose two in a row at home. Still will be a low-scoring game. 20-16
Giants over Redskins. I would like it more if the Giants were on the road but still, the Redskins have the worst-ranked pass defense and Eli has Cruz, Nicks, and Hixon all ready to run. RG3 has been getting big hits and the G-Men have a strong pass rush. 38-20
(0-4 last week; yikes! 11-13 overall)
The Rest of the Games
Saints over Buccaneers 35-28
Packers over Rams 28-23
Panthers over Cowboys 21-20
Vikings over Cardinals 21-18
Titans over Bills 34-28
Colts over Browns 23-20
Raiders over Jaguars 27-19
Steelers over Bengals 24-23
Bears over Lions 27-24
(5-5 last week, 41-25 overall)
Saturday, October 13, 2012
ten stats from Yankees-Orioles
Whether it was great pitching or just terrible hitting, there was a lot of it in the American League Division Series with the Yankees and Orioles. Here are some of the notable stats and facts from the series.
1. The teams scored only 26 runs in the 5-game series.
2. Yankees scored 5 runs in the ninth inning of Game 1. Outside of that one inning, the two teams did not combine to score more than 5 runs in any game.
3. Some things never change. After a season where the Yankees relied solely on the long ball, the trend did not change in the ALDS. Of the five games, the Yankees homered in three. The games they did they won, the two they didn’t hit one out they lost.
4. Teams combined for 72 hits in 362 at bats (.199 avg)
5. The Yankees’ four big sluggers, Cano, A-Rod, Granderson, and Swisher combined to go 9-75 (.120 avg)
6. We heard a lot about the benching of Alex Rodriguez. No doubt, he played poorly. But the player who replaced him at third base, Eric Chavez did worse. Chavez was 0-8 with 4 strikeouts.
7. As for the Orioles big sluggers they weren’t any better. Adam Jones (2-23), Wieters (3-20), Hardy (3-22), and Reynolds (3-19) hit a combined .131.
8. Outside of Game 2, the Orioles were only 5-31 (.161) with runners in scoring position in the series.
9. Yankees relievers gave up only 1 earned run in 11.1 innings (0.79 ERA).
10. The Orioles played 20 extra-inning games this year, winning 17. All three losses were to the Yankees.
Thursday, October 11, 2012
comparing two pinstripe heroes
Raul Ibanez put on the biggest clutch performances New York fans have since Aaron Boone in 2003. And it is fun to look at the two games and see how history has a way of repeating itself.
Aaron Boone was in his first season with the Yankees, as is Raul Ibanez. Boone was 30, Ibanez is 40 (nice round numbers). Neither player started the game (Boone pinch-ran for Ruben Sierra, Ibanez pinch-hit for A-Rod). Boone’s homer came on the first pitch of the eleventh inning; Ibanez hit his game-winner on the first pitch of the twelfth. The hits beat division rivals in the playoffs.
Boone’s blast won Game 7 of the ALCS against the Boston Red Sox and sent the Yankees into the World Series. There is nothing in the world that can compare to that feat. That places Boone in a place all of his own in Yankee lore. Ibanez’ home run won a pivotal Game 3 of the ALDS against the Orioles. Incredibly important, but not of the grand scale as Aaron Boone’s heroics.
But it wasn’t just a walk-off homer for Raul. It was TWO home runs! The first he hit with one out in the ninth inning against the best relief pitcher in the American League, in a game where the Yankees hitters did nothing the whole game. He hit the dramatic home run to tie the game in the ninth, and then the next pitch he saw he slammed into the right field seats for the walk-off in the twelfth. That display puts him uniquely in the Yankees history books.
The most unbelievable aspect of Ibanez’ performance was the opportunity itself. Joe Girardi chose to send up Raul Ibanez in place of the $275 million man Alex Rodriguez and his 647 home runs, trailing by one run in the bottom of the ninth. He deserved to hit, but replacing a future first-ballot Hall-of-Famer in that situation? That move took a lot of gumption by Girardi. And he came off smelling of roses. Makes you wonder why he didn’t use the clutch slugger sooner, but it obviously worked out.
The other detail about Ibanez was that this was nothing new for him and Yankees fans. He has been clutch all year. In fact, this is the third time he’s done it in the last two and a half weeks! In a crucial game October 2 against the Red Sox, Ibanez hit a pinch-hit home run to tie the game in the bottom of the ninth, and then went on to get the game-winning hit with two outs in the twelfth. On September 22 against the playoff-bound Athletics, Ibanez hit a pinch-hit home run in the 5th inning to break a tie, and after getting hit by a pitch and doubling, he hit a game-tying home run in the 13th inning after the A’s took a 4-run lead in the top of the inning. We’re not talking one big hit; this is repeated, multiple game-tying and game-winning hits the same night!
And that’s not all. On June 23, down 3-0, Ibanez hit a three-run homer to tie the game in the 7th against the Mets, a few batters before Eric Chavez hit the go-ahead homer. In a July game, tie game with two outs in the bottom of the 8th, Ibanez hit a game-winning grand slam to beat the Blue Jays. Raul Ibanez has been the most clutch, timely, dramatic hitter for the New York Yankees this season, and perhaps all of baseball. And like Aaron Boone, Raul Ibanez is a name no Yankees fan will ever forget.
Week 6 Preview
Five Big Games
- Giants vs. 49ers: A rematch of the NFC Championship Game and perhaps a preview of a repeat for this postseason. 49ers are on a roll, outscoring their two cupcake opponents 79-3 the last two weeks and have been looking forward to redemption from January’s loss. We all know the defense is great, but last week the 49ers became the first offense in NFL history with 300 yards passing and rushing in the same game. The Giants offense has also been red-hot, ranking only behind New England in points and yardage, despite dealing with a bunch of injuries to key players. Eli Manning is probably the best road QB in the NFL, but the 49ers will be ready. If anybody cares, it is Brandon Jacobs first time facing his former team.
- Packers vs. Texans. The hardest game of the week for me to pick. Green Bay has done a good job bouncing back from losses and the Texans may be due for a letdown. The Texans are undefeated but haven’t played anybody better than the 2-3 Broncos, and struggled against a Jets team last week missing all its key players. The Packers will be without running back Cedric Benson, but the Packers haven’t been able to run the ball anyway.
- Broncos vs. Chargers. The two best teams in the AFC West square off in San Diego. After a tough loss to the Saints, I still don’t know what to think about the Chargers. Peyton Manning has played as expected for the Broncos. The defense has been susceptible but against the Falcons, Texans and Patriots who hasn’t? Peyton Manning has lost five of his last six games against the Chargers.
- Patriots vs. Seahawks. The NFL’s most prolific offense against the stingiest defense. Seahawks have allowed only 3 offensive touchdowns while the Patriots have scored 18. Something’s gotta give. The Patriots passing defense is ranked 30th while the Seahawks passing offense is ranked 31st, so the Pats biggest weakness should be able to cover. The biggest surprise for the Patriots is the ground game: they rank 3rd in rushing offense. This is Tom Brady’s first trip to Seattle, a place that has already shut down Aaron Rodgers this season.
- Cowboys vs. Ravens. Cowboys have had an extra week to prepare for the Ravens, who are coming from a game they could only kick field goals in. Cowboys have turned the ball over 11 times in four games, including 5 against the Bears.
Upset Alert
Colts over Jets
Packers over Texans
(7-3 overall)
Miller’s Fearless Picks
Picking four road teams.
Steelers over Titans. Pittsburgh is getting players back and Big Ben has been terrific already. The Titans have so many issues on both sides of the ball. Steelers have won three straight meetings and ought to make it four. 28-20
Colts over Jets. Andrew Luck looks like a seasoned vet and Mark Sanchez looks like a lost rookie. Tim Tebow will be starting next week. 24-17
Patriots over Seahawks. Russell Wilson will not be able to generate enough points to keep the Seahawks in the game. 28-19
Vikings over Redskins. No RG3, and the Vikings have been very strong on defense and careful on offense. 23-21
(4-0 last week, 11-9 overall)
The Rest of the Games
Steelers 28, Titans 20
Ravens 20, Cowboys 16
Rams 17, Dolphins 14
Eagles 34, Lions 31
Bengals 28, Browns 17
Colts 24, Jets 17
Buccaneers 28, Chiefs 21
Falcons 34, Raiders 28
Patriots 28, Seahawks 19
Cardinals 24, Bills 22
Vikings 23, Redskins 21
49ers 30, Giants 23
Packers 27, Texans 26
Broncos 28, Chargers 21
(8-2 last week, 36-20 overall)
- Giants vs. 49ers: A rematch of the NFC Championship Game and perhaps a preview of a repeat for this postseason. 49ers are on a roll, outscoring their two cupcake opponents 79-3 the last two weeks and have been looking forward to redemption from January’s loss. We all know the defense is great, but last week the 49ers became the first offense in NFL history with 300 yards passing and rushing in the same game. The Giants offense has also been red-hot, ranking only behind New England in points and yardage, despite dealing with a bunch of injuries to key players. Eli Manning is probably the best road QB in the NFL, but the 49ers will be ready. If anybody cares, it is Brandon Jacobs first time facing his former team.
- Packers vs. Texans. The hardest game of the week for me to pick. Green Bay has done a good job bouncing back from losses and the Texans may be due for a letdown. The Texans are undefeated but haven’t played anybody better than the 2-3 Broncos, and struggled against a Jets team last week missing all its key players. The Packers will be without running back Cedric Benson, but the Packers haven’t been able to run the ball anyway.
- Broncos vs. Chargers. The two best teams in the AFC West square off in San Diego. After a tough loss to the Saints, I still don’t know what to think about the Chargers. Peyton Manning has played as expected for the Broncos. The defense has been susceptible but against the Falcons, Texans and Patriots who hasn’t? Peyton Manning has lost five of his last six games against the Chargers.
- Patriots vs. Seahawks. The NFL’s most prolific offense against the stingiest defense. Seahawks have allowed only 3 offensive touchdowns while the Patriots have scored 18. Something’s gotta give. The Patriots passing defense is ranked 30th while the Seahawks passing offense is ranked 31st, so the Pats biggest weakness should be able to cover. The biggest surprise for the Patriots is the ground game: they rank 3rd in rushing offense. This is Tom Brady’s first trip to Seattle, a place that has already shut down Aaron Rodgers this season.
- Cowboys vs. Ravens. Cowboys have had an extra week to prepare for the Ravens, who are coming from a game they could only kick field goals in. Cowboys have turned the ball over 11 times in four games, including 5 against the Bears.
Upset Alert
Colts over Jets
Packers over Texans
(7-3 overall)
Miller’s Fearless Picks
Picking four road teams.
Steelers over Titans. Pittsburgh is getting players back and Big Ben has been terrific already. The Titans have so many issues on both sides of the ball. Steelers have won three straight meetings and ought to make it four. 28-20
Colts over Jets. Andrew Luck looks like a seasoned vet and Mark Sanchez looks like a lost rookie. Tim Tebow will be starting next week. 24-17
Patriots over Seahawks. Russell Wilson will not be able to generate enough points to keep the Seahawks in the game. 28-19
Vikings over Redskins. No RG3, and the Vikings have been very strong on defense and careful on offense. 23-21
(4-0 last week, 11-9 overall)
The Rest of the Games
Steelers 28, Titans 20
Ravens 20, Cowboys 16
Rams 17, Dolphins 14
Eagles 34, Lions 31
Bengals 28, Browns 17
Colts 24, Jets 17
Buccaneers 28, Chiefs 21
Falcons 34, Raiders 28
Patriots 28, Seahawks 19
Cardinals 24, Bills 22
Vikings 23, Redskins 21
49ers 30, Giants 23
Packers 27, Texans 26
Broncos 28, Chargers 21
(8-2 last week, 36-20 overall)
Thursday, October 4, 2012
Week 5 Preview - quickie
A game is on tonight so I gotta get this to press without too many comments.
Five Big Games
- Broncos vs. Patriots: Peyton Manning versus Tom Brady never gets old.
- Eagles vs. Steelers: Coming off a bye, Pittsburgh should finally have Rashard Mendenhall, Troy Polamalu, and James Harrison active. Eagles hope to have turned a corner in last week's win over the Giants.
- Chargers vs. Saints: Looking for that elusive first win certainly doesn't get easier for the Saints against the 3-1 Chargers. Drew Brees looking to set record for consecutive games with a touchdown pass.
- Falcons vs. Redskins: Matt Ryan has been stellar and the Redskins have been very generous to quarterbacks. Atlanta looking for their third road win already.
- Packers vs. Colts: Andrew Luck takes on Aaron Rodgers as Indianapolis plays their first game without their head coach Chuck Pagano who is undergoing treatment for cancer. We've seen how a team can fall apart without their coach (New Orleans anyone?). Not a great matchup but a possible trap game for Green Bay.
Upset Alert
Rams over Cardinals
Titans over Vikings
(2-0 last week, 6-2 overall)
Miller's Fearless Picks
(7-9 overall)
Steelers over the Eagles, 26-25
Patriots over the Broncos, 30-28
Texans over the Jets, 41-13
Saints over the Chargers, 31-28
The Rest of the Games
Rams 17, Cardinals 16
Bengals 28, Dolphins 20
Giants 30, Browns 17
Packers 27, Colts 24
Falcons 40, Redskins 28
Ravens 31, Chiefs 28
Bears 31, Jaguars 10
49ers 34, Bills 23
Patriots 30, Broncos 28
Vikings 21, Titans 20
(9-2 last week, 28-18 overall)
Five Big Games
- Broncos vs. Patriots: Peyton Manning versus Tom Brady never gets old.
- Eagles vs. Steelers: Coming off a bye, Pittsburgh should finally have Rashard Mendenhall, Troy Polamalu, and James Harrison active. Eagles hope to have turned a corner in last week's win over the Giants.
- Chargers vs. Saints: Looking for that elusive first win certainly doesn't get easier for the Saints against the 3-1 Chargers. Drew Brees looking to set record for consecutive games with a touchdown pass.
- Falcons vs. Redskins: Matt Ryan has been stellar and the Redskins have been very generous to quarterbacks. Atlanta looking for their third road win already.
- Packers vs. Colts: Andrew Luck takes on Aaron Rodgers as Indianapolis plays their first game without their head coach Chuck Pagano who is undergoing treatment for cancer. We've seen how a team can fall apart without their coach (New Orleans anyone?). Not a great matchup but a possible trap game for Green Bay.
Upset Alert
Rams over Cardinals
Titans over Vikings
(2-0 last week, 6-2 overall)
Miller's Fearless Picks
(7-9 overall)
Steelers over the Eagles, 26-25
Patriots over the Broncos, 30-28
Texans over the Jets, 41-13
Saints over the Chargers, 31-28
The Rest of the Games
Rams 17, Cardinals 16
Bengals 28, Dolphins 20
Giants 30, Browns 17
Packers 27, Colts 24
Falcons 40, Redskins 28
Ravens 31, Chiefs 28
Bears 31, Jaguars 10
49ers 34, Bills 23
Patriots 30, Broncos 28
Vikings 21, Titans 20
(9-2 last week, 28-18 overall)
A-mazing! a baseball story for the A-ges
I love stories, and what the A’s did this year is one of the most amazing stories in baseball history. I haven’t written about the Oakland Athletics at all this year because I didn’t know what to say. I don’t know anybody on their team, I couldn’t take them seriously, and I didn’t know how they were winning. They seem like a rag-tag crew of pickings off the scrap heap. There was a reason I picked the A’s to lose 96 games.
It has been fun to take a closer look at what this team is made of and when you do, you see that this isn’t just a random group of low-budget leftovers but a carefully crafted team. Here is the laundry list of moves General Manager Billy Beane has made. To cut payroll, yes, but also to construct a surprising contender.
- Before the season the A’s traded their ace (and NL Cy Young candidate) Gio Gonzalez to the Nationals. In return they got pitcher Tom Milone and catcher Derek Norris.
- Their next best pitcher, Trevor Cahill was traded to the Diamondbacks. In return they got pitcher Jarrod Parker and reliever Ryan Cook.
- They traded their All-Star closer Andrew Bailey and outfielder Ryan Sweeney to the Red Sox for their fourth outfielder Josh Reddick. They handed closing duties to Grant Balfour (who they planned to use for trade bait midseason).
- They traded a couple unimportant pitchers to the Rockies for outfielder Seth Smith.
- They signed free agents Bartolo Colon, designated hitter Jonny Gomes, and re-signed outfielder Coco Crisp, the only A’s starter from the end of 2011 to still be a starter at the end of 2012.
- They won the bidding for Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes, with a deal that was widely considered excessive for such an unproven commodity.
They signed minor league free agent first baseman Brandon Moss and called him up in June.
- In August they traded a minor leaguer to the Diamondbacks for shortstop Stephen Drew.
- Also in early August they traded away starting catcher Kurt Suzuki to the Nationals for a minor leaguer.
- The end of July they traded a relief pitcher for backup catcher George Kottaras, who used 18 hits with the A’s to manufacture 19 RBI.
- In May they claimed Triple-A journeyman pitcher Travis Blackley off waivers. The 29-year old had been with the Mariners, Giants, Phillies, Diamondbacks , Melbourne Australia and the Korean League, but in 12 years only made 6 major league appearances.
- Pitcher Brandon McCarthy pitched very well for the A’s until he was struck in the head by a line-drive on September 5 and underwent brain surgery.
- They called up rookie pitchers A.J Green in June and Daniel Straily in August. That month they also activated pitcher Brett Anderson, who had recovered from Tommy John Surgery, but his season ended a month later.
- The only starting players unaccounted for are second baseman Cliff Pennington and third baseman Josh Donaldson, who have had unremarkable careers.
Their entire starting rotation for September (and the playoffs) was composed of rookies: Jarrod Parker, Tommy Milone, A.J. Griffin, Travis Blackley and Daniel Straily.
They have the lowest payroll in the major leagues, totaling under $50 million, including eight players making the league minimum. In a division with the high-spending Rangers and Angels, what chance did they have?
What happened:
-- Newly acquired rookie pitchers Milone and Parker made 60 starts, each winning 13 games. Griffin went 7-1 with an ERA of 3.08. In fact, all five of those rookies had ERA under 4.
-- Yoenis Cespedes emerged as the Oakland’s most feared hitter, hitting .311 with 14 homers after the All Star break.
-- Brandon Moss hit 21 home runs and was also hot in the second half, batting .309.
-- Josh Reddick struggled in September but still led the team with 32 home runs and 85 RBI (after only 7 home runs in 2011).
-- Jonny Gomes became a key contributor in the second half, hitting .295 with 10 home runs.
-- Derek Norris and George Kottaras became a serviceable catching platoon and got some key hits in the stretch run to end the season. Seth Smith served as a useful utility outfielder, and Stephen Drew provided veteran leadership in the infield.
-- Bartolo Colon didn’t finish the season, but provided some stability and veteran presence in the rotation for much of the season, winning 10 games with a good ERA.
-- Ryan Cook pitched brilliantly in the first half, representing the A’s in the All Star game, and was the most dependable reliever the whole season.
-- Grant Balfour (who was not traded) converted his final 17 save opportunities. Balfour pitched a perfect inning in each of the A’s final 5 games of the season, a remarkable feat.
I find it amazing that this group of players didn’t give up in the early summer or later. On June 10 they sat in last place at 26-35. On June 30 they were 13 games behind the high-powered Texas Rangers. Dallas Braden, one of their best pitchers, missed his second straight season recovering from shoulder surgery. Remember they had also lost All-Stars Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill to trades before the season. One of their starting pitchers to begin the year, Graham Godfrey, was terrible and quickly demoted. In August they lost their veteran and team leader Bartolo Colon to a season-ending suspension. And then in September they lost their next two best pitchers Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson to injuries. Balfour lost the closer job in early May, but Ryan Cook slumped in the role later that summer. Meanwhile, division-rival Rangers (back-to-back AL champions) held onto baseball’s best record for much of the season. As to hitting, at the All-Star break they were dead last in the AL in runs and batting average, next-to-last in slugging percentage, and third-to-last in strikeouts.
But ya know, this group didn’t know any better. With an entire roster of young players looking for a chance, how could they just sit back and wait until next year? This team that couldn’t hit a lick turned it on at the break and actually scored the most runs in all of baseball in the second half; and depending on rookie starting pitchers went 51-25 in the second half of the season, the best record in all of baseball, overcame that huge division deficit and took sole possession of first place on the last day of the season, winning 95 games. It is truly remarkable.
Billy Beane is the same GM from the Moneyball movie. But no offense to Brad Pitt, 2012 was Beane’s finest performance. And this sure sounds like material for a sequel.
Wednesday, October 3, 2012
Day 162: what to look forward to
Last year the last day of the regular season was so exciting, widely considered the greatest regular season day in baseball (sports?) history. Twelve months later we are set up for another epic day of sports.
Unlike 2011, the teams are set. All 10 of them. But especially with the Wild Card situation and the division battles, there is lots at stake.
1. Yankees have sole position of the best record in the American League. If they beat the Red Sox, home field advantage for the playoffs is theirs. No Garcia, Nova, Phelps or Hughes for this game; New York is sending their best to the hill, Hiroki Kuroda. And while the Red Sox have had a horrible season and have a crappy lineup, oh how the people in Boston would like the screw the Yankees postseason position.
2. The Orioles play the Tampa Bay Rays in a battle of teams that crashed the party last year. If the Yankees lose and Baltimore wins then the teams will be tied and the two teams will play Game #163 in Baltimore. Winner takes the division, loser has to play #164 one game Wild Card playoff game, win or go home style.
3.Rangers vs. Athletics: This is one of the craziest matchups we have seen in a long time. On June 10 the Athletics were 26-35. On June 30 the Rangers were 13 games ahead of the A’s. Payroll = Rangers $120M (#5) vs. Athletics $49M (last). And yet this game decides who gets all the marbles. Tonight will be AJ Griffin in the 101st game of the season started by an A’s rookie pitcher. Veteran but new-to-town Ryan Dempster is starting for the Rangers. Hamilton, Beltre, Napoli, Kinsler, Cruz, Andrus, Young against Coco Crisp, Stephen Drew, Yeonis Cespedes, Jonny Gomes, Josh Reddick, Chris Carter, Donaldson, Moss. Winner wins the division, loser has to play the Wild Card toss-up game.
4. If the Yankees lose, and the Orioles win, we will have a 3-way tie for best record in the American League.
5. Nationals are playing this afternoon. If they win they clinch best record in the NL.
6. If Nats lose and the Reds win, Cincinnati clinches best record in the NL. Pitching for the Reds is Homer Bailey, coming off a no-hitter in his last start.
7. Chase for the Triple Crown: We’re talking about real history here. Miguel Cabrera has finally taken the exclusive lead in home runs and has padded his lead in batting average and RBI so the drama isn’t quite there, but Cabrera (truly the best and most consistent hitter in baseball) has a good chance to be the first winner of the Triple Crown since Carl Yastrzemski 45 years ago. Josh Hamilton can take it away or Edwin Encarnacion with a couple dingers could tie, but Cabrera is in position.
8. Jered Weaver is pitching for his 21st win of the season tonight. If he does that, with a record of 21-4 and an ERA around 2.7, he is a legitimate candidate for Cy Young.
Tuesday, October 2, 2012
NFL Power Report
ESPN uses five different writers for their Power Rankings, and those guys write like one general sentence about each team. Right here, you get one guy who looks at every team, every game, and pores through all kinds of statistics for interesting information. This Power Report doesn’t blindly go by record but also by the “eye test” to weigh sustainability.
1. Texans. Taking advantage of a light opening schedule with another beat-down of a bad team. Outscoring opponents 126-56. NFL’s stingiest defense, best in points allowed and giving up third down conversions only 25% of time. Ought to clinch the division by Thanksgiving.
2. 49ers. What can you say after a 34-0 pasting on the road? I guess you can say, coming off a bad loss, the Jets caught the 49ers at a bad time. 245 yards rushing, no giveaways, defense forced 7 three-and-outs and turnovers on 4 other possessions; that was as dominating a game could be.
3. Falcons. Down by a point, ball on your own 1 with 59 seconds left and no timeouts? No problem for the season’s first quarter MVP Matt Ryan, who made three big plays to get his team in position for a game-winning field goal. Matty Ice has 11 touchdowns (plus one rushing) to two interceptions and no fumbles, and the Falcons are 4-0. On the other side of the ball, the Falcons defense has forced 14 turnovers in 4 games (and they didn’t even play the Eagles). Redskins and Raiders up next so 6-0 looks likely.
4. Patriots. Two missed field games or the Pats could have had 58 points. Someone must have showed Tom Brady the scoreboard at halftime because the Patriots went on a 45-7 run to finish the game. Look at this: the Patriots had two 100+ yard rushers in the game. 2-2 record but the two losses are by a missed field goal and a controversial made field goal.
5. Ravens. I haven’t seen the exact stats, but I’m sure no one throws the ball deep more than Joe Flacco. The Ravens came dangerously close to giving a game to the Browns, who had two shots to the endzone at the end. The Ravens have the #2 ranked offense. 3-1 is where you expect the Ravens at this point.
6. Packers. Aaron Rodgers finally has a huge game, but doesn’t everyone against the Saints? Packers have had the toughest early-season schedule but still need to be careful of a trap game in Indianapolis next week.
7. Bears. The defense destroyed the Cowboys on Monday Night and the offense went 7/12 on third downs. Jay Cutler has really picked up his performance in the second half of games, this time completing 11 of 12 passes for 219 and a couple touchdowns after halftime. They have a chance at collapsing more often than more elite teams, but the Bears are solid all the way around.
8. Cardinals. Speaking of trap games, Arizona almost lost their undefeated season at home against one of the worst teams in the NFL. For a defense that shut down Tom Brady and Michael Vick and stood tough holding off Seattle at the end in Week 1, they just gave up 431 passing yards by Ryan Tannehill, which makes me nervous the rest of the way. But anyway, they are 4-0 which is better than anyone expected them to be. And their next games against the Rams and Bills are certainly winnable, too.
9. Eagles. How’s this for a stat: there were 9 straight punts in the first half of the Giants/Eagles game and 0 in the second half. The Eagles 3 wins are by a combined 4 points but as the former Eagle Herm says, you play to win the game. Michael Vick played a great game against the Giants and LeSean McCoy ran hard in the second half. The defense also played well, but the biggest story for the Eagles = no turnovers.
10. Giants. The defense couldn’t stop the Eagles in the second half, as Philly moved the ball downfield and kicked four straight field goals. A little something more in the first half would have helped; they punted their first five possessions. 0-2 in the NFC BEast.
11. Vikings. Christian Ponder is the only starting quarterback who hasn’t thrown an interception, and he is completing 68% of his throws. The defense is solid, and when you add two special teams touchdowns to those facts it is no wonder the Vikings are 3-1. No game is easy, but the Vikings do not face a challenging opponent the next 6 weeks.
12. Chargers. Hard to really judge the Chargers so far, three easy wins against bad teams but blown out at home by the Falcons. The result is middle-of-the-pack in every category. In New Orleans next week against a desperate team.
13. Broncos. A 31-point division win is as good as it gets in the NFL. Manning had his best game as a Bronco, 30/38 passing for 338 yards and 3 touchdowns. The defense will be challenged again against the Patriots and Chargers next, both games away.
14. Steelers. Pittsburgh is worst-ranked rushing offense, which seems to be a good sign historically. They don’t have a run longer than 13 yards. Ben Roethlisberger is a quiet superstar; all he does is make amazing plays. The bye week came at the perfect time, as Troy Polamalu, James Harrison and Rashard Mendenhall all ought to be ready to play Week 5.
15. Bengals. Since that embarrassing loss to the Ravens in Week 1 the Bengals are taking advantage of a favorable schedule (Browns, Redskins, Jaguars, Dolphins, Browns). Dalton-to-Green becoming one of the NFL’s best air connections.
16. Cowboys. Win, embarrassing loss, win, embarrassing loss; not a pattern for a champion contender. Cowboys better figure out a way to protect Tony Romo during the bye week. Five interceptions, two returned for touchdowns. The defense has been pretty strong but an offense like that makes everyone look bad. For all the talent Dez Bryant may have, he makes too many mistakes, dropping passes and missing routes.
17. Seahawks. Easy to see that trap game coming after a crazy win the previous Monday Night. Marshawn Lynch is the league’s leading rusher but Russell Wilson is last in passing. The only touchdown Seattle allowed was on a fake field goal so we can see that the defense is still really strong.
18. Lions. The last two games the Lions have given up four touchdowns on special teams and fumbled another one that went the other way. They have also dropped about five passes in the endzone. Sitting in last place, it’s time for a bye week.
19. Rams. Rookie kicker Greg Zuerlein is 12-12 for field goals, including 8 from 40+ yards.
20. Redskins. Alfred Morris is a rookie 6th round pick but has been remarkably consistent, leading the NFL’s top rushing offense attack. Robert Griffin III has been pretty remarkable, completing about 70% of his passes and rushing for 252 yards and 4 touchdowns. He takes a lot of hits and that is a cause for concern later in the season, but perhaps if his receiver didn’t throw a temper tantrum last week and take the kicker out of field goal range the Redskins could be 3-1. Redskins have lost the most yards via penalty.
21. Buccaneers. Three heart-breaking losses in a row. It looked like the Bucs were ready to win until they let RGIII run wild and get in position for a field goal. Bucs defense has been very bad and the offense hasn’t gotten going, either.
22. Saints. Finding new ways to lose. This week: missed field goal with 3 minutes left. I don’t care much for Drew Brees’ touchdown game streak, the last four games have been losses so what is there to celebrate?
23. Colts. According to ESPN, Andrew Luck has the highest Total Quarterback Rating so far; I don’t understand that one bit. The Colts have nobody with multiple touchdowns.
Jaguars.
24. Panthers. Same ol’ Cam Newton, great for three quarters, chokes at the end and the Panthers lose. I’m tired of (1) the touchdown celebrations and (2) woe-is-me attitude. Cam may be exciting but the Panthers don’t know how to win.
25. Jets. Once again: Mark Sanchez struggles, the Jets are down 34-0 and they still don’t use Tim Tebow? Sanchez completed 43% of his passes the last 3 weeks, has no confidence and looks completely awful. And looking forward, consider that his top receiver, second receiver and tight end are all hurt and a game against the league’s #2 passing defense is next; Rex Ryan’s undying loyalty makes no sense. And oh yeah, by the way: Colin Kaepernick had more rushing yards Sunday than the Jets offense. The offensive line is a disaster, this team has no direction and no hope. Rex Ryan should be fired.
26. Bills. They definitely made Patriots fans nervous at halftime, but 6 turnovers in New England turned it into a blowout. CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson were surprise actives for the game, but maybe they should have taken another week off as both fumbled. West Coast road trip to San Francisco (3-1) and Arizona (4-0) next.
27. Dolphins. Back-to-back overtime losses following a win show that the Dolphins are playing very competitively. Raise your hand if you predicted Brian Hartline would be the league’s leading receiver after four games (a 253-yard game certainly helps).
28. Jaguars. Considering the three losses are against teams that are 3-1 right now, it is no surprise that the Jags are off to a tough start (and Bears are next). Receiver Laurent Robinson was concussed for the second game in a row. The defense puts no pressure on the opposing quarterback.
29. Raiders. Strange that the Raiders have run less than any team in the league, but they keep falling behind so much and so early. Raiders offense could do nothing against the Broncos, going three-and-out on four straight possessions after halftime while the defense let Peyton Manning go crazy. Defense has yielded 32 third down conversions, worst in the NFL. It is nice to know that Darrius Heyward-Bey is back at practice and should be ready for their next game after a taking a vicious hit that knocked him unconscious last week (unfortunately, their next game is against the high-flying Falcons).
30. Chiefs. Okay, I’ve given up on the Arrowhead Advantage. Turnovers are killing the Chiefs; they have 15 already (including a league-high 8 lost fumbles) and only 2 takeaways.
31. Titans. Chris Johnson finally showed some signs of life, but the Titans still have tons of other problems. The defense is allowing a quarterback rating of 118, rated 27th against the run, and giving up nearly 38 points a game. The offense rushing is ranked #29, and quarterback Jake Locker has already been knocked out of two games.
32. Browns. Rookie Trent Richardson has touchdowns in each of the last 3 games. Why is Brandon Weeden throwing 52 times? With three injured receivers this week, Coach Shurmur better have a better plan.
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