The Most Important Games

We're down to 4 weeks left in the NFL season and the playoff picture is taking shape.

We can safely assume that the Saints, Vikings, and Cardinals will clinch spots in the NFC and the Colts, Bengals, Chargers, and Patriots are in for the AFC. But those last 5 spots are really up for grabs.

Contenders in the NFC (3 spots)
Packers 8-4
Cowboys 8-4
Eagles 8-4
Giants 7-5
Falcons 6-6

Contenders in the AFC (2 spots)
Broncos 8-4
Jaguars 7-5
Ravens 6-6
Steelers 6-6
Dolphins 6-6
Jets 6-6

I give the Falcons no chance at beating the Saints and that should eliminate them.

THE GAMES
Now these aren't concerned so much with seeding and homefield (Cincy/SD has major implications) but with who can get in.

Week 14:
-Eagles at Giants
-Cowboys at Chargers
-Dolphins at Jaguars
If the Dolphins do beat the Jaguars, then the Jags have a must-win against the Colts the next week.
Cowboys will need a win in San Diego or home to the Saints or forget about it.

Week 15:
-Dolphins at Titans
-Packers at Steelers
-Raiders at Broncos
-Colts at Jaguars
The Dolphins control their destiny. If they win out (is possible) they could sneak in. That's why I mentioned earlier that the playoffs begin now for them.

Week 16
-Broncos at Eagles
-Ravens at Steelers
-Texans at Dolphins
The Ravens/Steelers game may have bigger implications for the Jags than either of them.

Week 17
-Eagles at Cowboys
-Giants at Vikings
-Steelers at Dolphins
-Ravens at Raiders
-Packers at Cardinals (if Packers lose to Bears or Seahawks)
The Giants in Minnesota game is likely a must-win for them and a meaningless game for the Vikings.
That last one is only important if the Packers blow it before then. They can lose to the Steelers and Cards and still make the playoffs easily.

You can see that I think the Raiders can continue to be big spoilers, as they were with Pittsburgh last week. Ravens and Broncos beware.

The Broncos will have to lose their last 4 (including at home to the Chiefs and Raiders) to miss out; I think they are safe.

My Predictions
Packers IN (90%)
Eagles IN (70%)
Giants IN (55%)
Cowboys OUT (45%)

Broncos IN (95%)
Dolphins IN (35%)
Jaguars OUT (35%)
Ravens OUT (35%)
Steelers OUT (15%)
Jets OUT (5%)