They are who we thought they were

I thought this was an opportunity for the Jaguars to distinguish themselves as "they that stopped the Colts," and they had the opportunities. But in the end, Peyton is king and the Jags are soon tied-for-last in the division. The story is missed chances. They dominated time of posession, completed 62% third downs, ran the ball effectively, and Garrard was effective for three quarters. But every time they scored to take the lead, Indy got it back quick! Touchdown drives of 3:03, 2:17, 0:42, and a kickoff return (0:13) simply killed the Jags. That has been the story of the season, Peyton's ability to whenever he needs to. Can you blame Bill Belichek for trying something (4th-2) to keep him off the field? Peyton was practically perfect all night (12/12 in the first half, 23/30 overall). His only interception was a perfect throw that Dallas Clark simply dropped. And Jacksonville, they are who we thought they were. Great running back, shoddy defense, mediocre quarterback incapable of the play.

The thing that amazes me the most about Iny is that despite their winning streak, all the pressure is on their opponents. The Colts really have no pressure at this point. And that is remarkable! That is why they get outplayed almost every week, or glaring weaknesses are exposed, and yet they are the ones smiling at the end of the night. Jim Caldwell has leaped to the top of my Coach of the Year ticket.
When it comes to the playoffs, however, I think all that pressure will be squarely on the Colts, like it was for the Giants, and the other teams in the AFC will be ready for them like TCU is ready for BYU every year.

But anyway, Jacksonville is out of the playoff hunt, and Peyton Manning very well may have just punched his MVP ticket.

NFL Week 14 Power Report

1. I know it was cold and windy in Cleveland on Thursday but that's no excuse keeping the Steelers from "earning" the worst team performance of the year. For a team fighting to save their playoff lives to get blown away by the #32-ranked offense AND defense is beyond embarrassing. Steelers have no offensive line. And Big Ben held onto the ball WAY too long ALL the time. If that's not bad enough, the Steelers gave up 170 yards on the ground to one of the worst ground teams in the league. Joshua Cribbs fumbled a punt and still managed to run 55 yards. Previously I thought they were simply missing Troy Polu but no, the Steelers are absolutely pathetic.

2. Congratulations to the Indianapolis Colts on setting a new record with 22 straight wins in the regular season. If you compare that to basketball, that's like a team winning 112 straight (okay, not really the same but you get it). And unlike the previous 5, the last two have been early blowouts (against good teams).

3. People are probably sick of me praising Titans' Chris Johnson, but if you saw him play you would believe it, too. He is one of the best football players I have ever seen. Don't be surprised when people start comparing him to Barry Sanders in a few years.

3a. Speaking of explosive, DeSean Jackson is too. 9 touchdowns of 48+ yards.

4. Rams' third-stringer Keith Null became the 4th rookie quarterback to throw five interceptions in a game this season (joining Sanchez, Stafford, and Freeman). Jay Kurt Warner and Cutler also have a 5 INT game (Jay had another with 4), and Jake Delhomme has two 4 INT games.

5. As my friend Ryan Comer pointed out , the Cowboys and Chargers are heading opposite directions in December. Romo gets a lot of the negative attention but is it his fault this month? The last two weeks have been the best two game stretch of the season for him! 5 TDs, 0 INT, 60/85 (70%), and a 99-yard touchdown drive in the second half this week. Marion Barber failed on three straight attempts from the 1 yard line, missed field goal, that's not Romo's fault. All stats aside, Boys have lost six of their last seven December games.

THE RANKINGS

Teams at the Top
1. Colts. They just keep winning. But still, I'll be surprised if they are in the Super Bowl.
2. Saints. Barely squeak out two wins against highly injury-plagued teams?
3. Vikings. I'm glad all the Favre in December talk stopped.
4. Chargers. 16 straight December wins.
5. Eagles. If Westbrook can come back in the playoffs, this team will be a monster with him, DeSean Jackson, and Vick.
6. Cardinals. Fell victim to the San Francisco Singletarys. They are ball hawks. 4 of Arizona's 5 losses are to teams under .500.
7. Bengals. They are supposed to have a solid, balanced offense but in the last 9 games they've topped 20 only twice (to the woeful Lions and Bears, oh my!).

Messy Middle
8. Packers. Charles Woodson has 8 interceptions, 4 forced fumbles, and a couple sacks this season.
9. Broncos. Congrats to Brandon Marshall on a record 21-receptions game. No one else has beaten the Colts either, so go ahead and enjoy the day.
10. Patriots. Wes Welker has 105 catches (18 more than the next guy) and he even missed a couple games.
11. Cowboys. Two great links: http://www.star-telegram.com/sports/story/1828562.html firewadephillips.com
12. Giants. Lots of highlights in that Eagles' game. Despite losing four fumbles, they came an onside kick away from winning. Giants will become huge supporters of the Eagles and Redskins for a few weeks so they can get into the playoffs themselves.
13. Dolphins. Ricky Williams ran for 100+, Henne completed 17 straight passes, and the defense shut down the Jags.
14. Titans. Good news on VY's injured hammy; they could sure use him against the Fins.
15. Jaguars. The fact is that they will have to beat either the Colts or Patriots to make it into the playoffs.
16. Jets. Forced to attempt five field goals, but when you limit your opponent to
124 yards you will win (other than that game in Miami last month).
17. Ravens. It's basically going to come down to Week 16 in Pittsburgh: win and in. That would be nice revenge against the Steelers who went 3-0 against the Ravens en route to the Super Bowl.

The Underachievers
18. 49ers. 7 forced fumbles and a couple interceptions, that is Niners defense. Imagine if they didn't choke against the Seahawks last week; they could have swept the division.
19. Texans. Finally got out of their funk with a dominant performance. Another blowout on the horizon in St Louis?
20. Falcons. Despite missing Ryan and Turner and having no defense, they had the ball and a chance to win in the last couple minutes.
21. Redskins. They can be big spoilers with Giants, Cowboys and Chargers left on the schedule.
22. Bears. Turnovers and penalties are how you lose games. Haven't beat a team that has a winning record (0-6).
23. Steelers. Couldn't reach the endzone against the Browns.
24. Panthers. Chris Gamble needs to shut up and remember that his team lost.
25. Seahawks. 1-14 on third downs.

Same old Story
26. Bills. Can you believe they actually have 5 wins?
27. Raiders. Back to JaMarcus Russell. Or Maybe Charlie Frye. Does it matter?
28. Chiefs. Jamaal Charles has had a nice season so far and has the Browns next.
29. Lions. Lions, Bucs, and Rams got outscored this week 121-13.
30. Browns. It was strange to see so many smiles on the Cleveland sideline.
31. Bucs. Josh Freeman has 0 TDs and 8 interceptions the last two games.
32. Rams. Is the season over yet?

Big game this week: Bengals at Chargers. Winner is likely to get a playoff bye.

The Most Important Games

We're down to 4 weeks left in the NFL season and the playoff picture is taking shape.

We can safely assume that the Saints, Vikings, and Cardinals will clinch spots in the NFC and the Colts, Bengals, Chargers, and Patriots are in for the AFC. But those last 5 spots are really up for grabs.

Contenders in the NFC (3 spots)
Packers 8-4
Cowboys 8-4
Eagles 8-4
Giants 7-5
Falcons 6-6

Contenders in the AFC (2 spots)
Broncos 8-4
Jaguars 7-5
Ravens 6-6
Steelers 6-6
Dolphins 6-6
Jets 6-6

I give the Falcons no chance at beating the Saints and that should eliminate them.

THE GAMES
Now these aren't concerned so much with seeding and homefield (Cincy/SD has major implications) but with who can get in.

Week 14:
-Eagles at Giants
-Cowboys at Chargers
-Dolphins at Jaguars
If the Dolphins do beat the Jaguars, then the Jags have a must-win against the Colts the next week.
Cowboys will need a win in San Diego or home to the Saints or forget about it.

Week 15:
-Dolphins at Titans
-Packers at Steelers
-Raiders at Broncos
-Colts at Jaguars
The Dolphins control their destiny. If they win out (is possible) they could sneak in. That's why I mentioned earlier that the playoffs begin now for them.

Week 16
-Broncos at Eagles
-Ravens at Steelers
-Texans at Dolphins
The Ravens/Steelers game may have bigger implications for the Jags than either of them.

Week 17
-Eagles at Cowboys
-Giants at Vikings
-Steelers at Dolphins
-Ravens at Raiders
-Packers at Cardinals (if Packers lose to Bears or Seahawks)
The Giants in Minnesota game is likely a must-win for them and a meaningless game for the Vikings.
That last one is only important if the Packers blow it before then. They can lose to the Steelers and Cards and still make the playoffs easily.

You can see that I think the Raiders can continue to be big spoilers, as they were with Pittsburgh last week. Ravens and Broncos beware.

The Broncos will have to lose their last 4 (including at home to the Chiefs and Raiders) to miss out; I think they are safe.

My Predictions
Packers IN (90%)
Eagles IN (70%)
Giants IN (55%)
Cowboys OUT (45%)

Broncos IN (95%)
Dolphins IN (35%)
Jaguars OUT (35%)
Ravens OUT (35%)
Steelers OUT (15%)
Jets OUT (5%)

NFL Week 13 Power Report

I was expecting the Week of the Upsets and it happened somewhat, but not the way I anticipated.

1. Quote of the year: "We're going to unleash hell in December."
- Steelers' coach Mike Tomlin, following last week's overtime loss to the Ravens, which was followed by this week's loss to the Raiders.

2. It's a strange day when Chad Henne outplays Tom Brady. Poor execution, coaching problems, not finishing, and simply bad plays, Brady and Belichek have lost their strangle hold on top of the NFL. It's also true that the Dolphins reguarly give the Patriots a hard time.

3. The Redskins looked poised to put the Saints in the loss column until 1) a weird fumble after an interception, 2) missed 23-yard field goal attempt, 3) interception in the final 2:00, and 4) fumble in overtime. I guess that's what it takes to stay undefeated; look back at last weeks' Colts/Texans game where all hell broke loose against the Houston team.

4. Quote of the week: "I don't think we have a team of losers... I think they're winners." - Cowboys coach Wade Phillips following their loss to the Giants.
Romo had a "career day", yet the Cowboys lose to the beat-up Giants? They abandoned their 3-prong ground attack! 55:23 pass/rush ratio is not how the Cowboys will win. The Giants had a couple flukey plays (Jacobs' 75 yard play and Hixon's punt return). But Wade's obliviousness to reality is why this team will not make the playoffs! He's not a winner, Romo is not a winner, and there are no winners on his team! Even if they did squeak into the playoffs, there is nobody in that team that screams "I can lead this team to a big win."

Super Bowl Contenders
1. Saints. About as bad a win as you can get. They gave up 455 yards to a team of Jason Campbell, Rock Cartwright, Devin Thomas, Mike Sellars, and Quintin Ganther. This was clearly a trap game and they were more than lucky to escape.
2. Colts. Their first convincing win in a while.
3. Vikings. They really got outplayed in every way. Adrian Peterson disappeared in the teams' first real challenge other than the Packers.
4. Cardinals. They are now running the ball well, which will open things up even more for Fitzgerald and Boldin. Kurt Warner has been on fire his last four games (12:0 TD/INT, 72% comp., 133 QB rating). The defense blew out the Vikings. This is an elite team (with Warner on the field).
5. Chargers. Chargers have been playing when their opponents are at their worst (Raiders, Giants, Eagles, Broncos). Lucky for them their trip to Dallas falls in December.
6. Bengals. Ho-hum games against the Browns and Lions are followed with two road games against teams above them (Vikings and Chargers). Hey Chad: nobody cares anymore.

Playoff Contenders
7. Cowboys. Their best hope is that the loss signifies a weakness against the Giants and not against the calendar. Their last four games are tough.
8. Packers. Won Monday night in one of the ugliest games of the year. Rodgers was sacked only once and the defense was great, other than a handful of pass interference instances. Three road games remain but they should end up in the playoffs. Pretty remarkable for the most-penalized team in the NFL.
9. Eagles. NFL's equivelant of the Utah Jazz. I really think Andy Reid has not utilized Michael Vick into the offense enough so it was nice to see him get some action while Jackson and Westbrook are down. If Reid figures out a way to use him they could be the team I picked to make it to the NFC championship game but they need to stay consistent.
10. Broncos. A visit to Indianapolis is next but even still this team is in position for a Wild Card spot.
11. Patriots. Three bad games out of the last four for B & B. How does a team be so dominant in the first half and so bad in the second half, and good at home and bad on the road? They will still make the playoffs but they have lots of problems.
12. Giants. I gave up on them on Thanksgiving but couple a win over Dallas and a Falcons' slump and they have a shot at the playoffs.
13. Jaguars. This week's battle of Florida is a must-win for a playoff spot.
14. Dolphins. Every game now is a playoff game for the team that went 4-0 in December last year. The remaining schedule looked real tough before the season but with viable wins over Jacksonville and Pittsburgh they could sneak in. I'm still riding the Henne wagon.
15. Jets. Just when I think they are done they play Carolina and Buffalo with Tampa Bay and the reeling Falcons on the horizon. Ride the ground game if they want to win.

The Underachievers
16. Titans. Despite the loss, Chris Johnson is higher in the MVP race. And don't worry, the Colts are done and the Rams are next.
17. Steelers. Bad news, Troy Polamalu might not be back this year. Without him, this team stinks. Proof: the Champs join the Redskins as the only teams with multiple losses to the Lions/Buccaneers/Browns/Rams/Chiefs/Raiders group.
18. Falcons. Way too banged up right now, that was an embarrassing loss to an Eagles team I thought they had a chance to beat (though I did change my pick prior to the game). There is no way they beat the Saints this week.
19. Raiders. Their last three wins are over the Eagles, Bengals and Steelers. They could play spoiler again in a couple weeks against division rival Denver. When you keep racking up top 5 picks you are going to get some playmakers, and with Gradkowski under center this is a decent team. Imagine where they could be without Russell for 9 games.
20. Ravens. Joe Flacco made one of the worst passes I've ever seen on Monday night. Add the 2nd-most penalties in the league and it's bad news. They also should use their 3-prong ground attack more, that's what made them one of the best teams last year, not Flacco.
21. Texans. Rex Grossman and Chris Brown completed nearly as many passes to the Jags as to their own teammates (2:3). It's impressive they came back in this one, but I believe they are the only team to fall behind 17-0 to the Jaguars. Coach Kubiak better have a résumé prepared.
22. 49ers. They hold a tiebreaker with the Seahawks. Frank Gore is their best player, who had over 200 yards in the first meeting, yet only had 9 carries? Why are you throwing on 3rd- and 4th-and-goal from the 1 with him on your team?
23. Seahawks. I guess my rampage against Coach Mora was a bunch of smoke since the kicker he called out has made a team-record 18 field goals in a row.
24. Panthers. Turned 5 interceptions into a measly 3 field goals. I like the play ratio of 33:20 in favor of the rush.
25. Bears. They have no talent around Cutler.

The Teams that might beat Alabama if they were in the BCS
26. Redskins. I give Jim Zorn a lot of credit for having a competitive team every week; sometimes you just need a little luck.
27. Bills. Revis won the matchup over Owens and therefore the Bills lost. They need a quarterback and an offensive line.
28. Chiefs. Cassell had a nice QB rating of 14.6 before getting benched. And they wanted this guy because he had one good year on a great Patriots team?
29. Lions. At least they can get another good draft pick next year and there is no salary cap.
30. Bucs. Freeman joins the 2009 club of QBs with at least 4 INT and no TD (5 in this game). They moved the ball pretty well until the endzone was in sight.
31. Rams. Who cares?
32. Browns. Surprise surprise, it's the Browns!

Week 13 Preview

Last week: 12-4

This Week's Games

-Jets (5-6) vs. Bills (4-7): The early game this week is not one anyone will watch. Bills have a good pass defense (contained Brady and Brees) so expect a rough day for the Jets' rookie. Owens vs. Revis is the matchup to pay attention to in this divisional rivalry. Bills by 3

-Eagles (7-4) vs. Falcons (6-5): With injuries to playmakers Jackson and Westbrook, McNabb has to depend on McCoy and Avant. Chris Redman is a capable backup, let's see how he does against the Philly blitz. Falcons by 6

-Titans (5-6) vs. Colts (11-0): Colts have always been vulnerable against the run and still have a lot of key injuries on defense, and that is good news for Chris Johnson. I think it depends on how the Titans defense plays; they have been great during this winning streak and Peyton has been turning the ball over a lot lately. I expect neither team scores over 20. Titans by 2

-Vikings (10-1) vs. Cardinals (7-4): If Warner doesn't play this game is a blowout, but it looks like he will play. There are a lot of great matchups in this one. Kurt Warner has always been susceptible to the sack (hello Mr Allen), but if he gets enough time to find Larry Fitzgerald I expect a few visits to the endzone for the star wideout. The Vikings are getting Antoine Winfield back. I like the time off to help Warner and I see the home team winning in a shootout. Cardinals by 7

-Cowboys (8-3) vs. Giants (6-5): November is over and this is the beginning of another tough run for the Cowboys. Giants are desperate, but may be too beat up to compete. If the Cowboys stay with pounding the ball on the ground it could be a blowout. I want to pick the desperate home team in this huge rivalry, but there are too many injuries on defense, Jacobs still hasn't heated up, we don't know if Bradshaw will play, and Eli hasn't been good for a long time. Why should we think their redzone woes end this week? Cowboys by 17

-Ravens (6-5) vs. Packers (7-4): Packers have trouble protecting the quarterback and Baltimore is coming to town. Ravens by 10

-Broncos (7-4) vs. Chiefs (3-8): upset alert! Chiefs by 3

-Rams (1-10) vs. Bears (4-7): Bears by 6
-Lions (2-9) vs. Bengals (8-3): Bengals by 7
-Patriots (7-4) vs. Dolphins (5-6): Patriots by 7
-Raiders (3-8) vs. Steelers (6-5): Steelers by 7
-Saints (11-0) vs. Redskins (3-8): Saints by 6
-Bucs (1-10) vs. Panthers (4-7): Panthers by 3
-Texans (5-6) vs. Jaguars (6-5): Texans by 14
-Chargers (8-3) vs. Browns (1-10): Chargers by 20
-49ers (5-6) vs. Seahawks (4-7): 49ers by 6

A word on Hockey

I had a neat experience a couple weeks ago. Saturday is traditionally for watching college football but as I was flipping back and forth I ended up staying on college hockey instead, watching the second half of Boston University vs. Univ. of New Hamphshire. It brought back some great memories.

Growing up in Vermont, hockey was actually the first sport I was ever interested in. My family went to most of the University of Vermont games. The first game I ever went to was a thrilling one where John LeClair scored the winning goal in overtime as the Catamounts beat Colgate 4-3. When I was 10, I was even struck in the head by an airborne puck, blacked out, and got to meet the trainer of the UVM team (I even got to keep the puck!).

In America, hockey is no higher than 4th most popular sport. I believe the only cause of this is ignorance. Hockey is very fast-paced, extremely physical, and exciting to watch. I like the fact that everybody gets a chance to play (there are 3-4 front-line and defense groups per team and they all get regular turns). Scoring is rare, but unlike soccer there are constant attempts on goal and game scores typically are in the 3-4 range. Physicality and roughness is well monitored and appropriately disciplined: 2 minutes in a penalty box for breaking the rules and your team plays short-handed because of it. Still, there are occasional fist-fights, the most entertaining part of any game. No one cares about "image," you don't see any tattoos or stylish clothes or wild hair, just rough physical men who are not afraid to lose a tooth or two.


link

It's a darn shame that hockey has never caught the public's eye in the US. The NHL is in terrible financial shape, games are rarely televised, and honestly I've never been to an NHL game, while I have been to many baseball games, NBA games, and even a (preseason) NFL game. But I really think if people got out and went to a game, they would realize that it is the most exciting game they've ever seen. No sport is more fun to watch in person than hockey. It's kind of like that little restaurant that nobody knows about but they quietly serve the best meatloaf on the planet.