my picks for NL All Stars

Wow, making up the team for the American League was a whole lot easier than that for the National League. If I had my way, the NL roster would have 10 hitters and 24 pitchers. That's the way the performance has been. Unfortunately, I gotta play by the rules. This team is dramatically less intimidating than the AL. Even among pitchers, with no Halladay, Cliff Lee, Tim Lincecum, Johan Santana, or Josh Johnson.

Again, here are the basic requirements for roster selection:
- 34 players per league (21 hitters, 13 pitchers. I don't know if that is set in stone but that's how it was for both leagues last year).
- Every team must be represented.

Starters in bold.

Catcher: Carlos Ruiz, Yadier Molina, Buster Posey

First base: Joey Votto

Second base: Dan Uggla, Jose Altuve, Brandon Phillips

Third base: David Wright, Chase Headley, David Freese

Shortstop: Starlin Castro, Rafael Furcal

Outfield: Ryan Braun, Carlos Beltran, Andrew McCutchen, Melky Cabrera, Carlos Gonzalez, Giancarlo Stanton, Michael Bourn, Matt Holliday, Jay Bruce

Pitchers:
Starter: Matt Cain, R.A. Dickey, Stephen Strasburg, Wade Miley, James McDonald, Gio Gonzalez, Johnny Cueto, Clayton Kershaw, Cole Hamels
Reliever: Craig Kimbrel, Aroldis Chapman, Jon Papelbon, Joel Hanrahan

A few observations:

- To show just how thin the NL is at first base after Fielder and Pujols left last year and Adrian Gonzalez the year before:
The runner up in voting is a guy who's batting #7 for the Braves, hitting .254 with 9 home runs on the season. Next in voting is a player who has only played 2 weeks of the season. Fourth in voting is another #7 batter with just 4 home runs batting .261. (First base All Star??) And fifth is Ryan Howard, who hasn't even been on the field.

I would plan on Votto playing the whole game. If he needs a break, I'd put Buster Posey at first.

- Carlos Beltran would be my DH. It looks like he will be voted to start in the outfield, in which situation I would have Melky Cabrera DH.

- There is nothing really crazy happening in the voting, other than Ryan Braun getting no love from fans after testing positive for PED last year. Matt Kemp is the leading vote receiver, but he's been hurt much of the season and won't be playing.

- Starting pitching is obviously very deep this year and challenging to narrow down. Omissions include Lance Lynn (10 wins), Chris Capuano (9 wins, 2.60 ERA), and Zach Greinke and A.J. Burnett (8-2). If Brandon Beachy were healthy that would also complicate things. Kershaw was the last one in, but being the reigning Cy Young winner puts him in. His record is just 5-4, but that's because he is receiving among the league's lowest run support. On the flip side, Lynn's high win total can be attributed to his league leading run support. Capuano could take Hamels' place, especially as the Dodgers have the best record with only one rep and the Phillies are in last with 3 reps, but Hamels does have the track record and more wins.

- I haven't seen Craig Kimbrel much, but I did see him a couple times against the Yankees, and he is the filthiest pitchers the Yankees have seen all year. I want him in the 9th inning.

- This lineup is not very scary. Absent are injured Kemp, Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Howard and Lance Berkman. If I was creating a better team I'd use Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes, but they haven't had their usual strong seasons, Marlins are disappointing, and Headley takes HanRam's spot. I might use Ramirez at shortstop, replacing Jay Bruce's roster spot, but he hasn't played there at all this year.

- This roster would yield the following team representation:

Reds, Cardinals 5
Braves, Phillies, Giants, Pirates 3
Nationals, Mets 2
Dodgers, Marlins, Astros, Rockies, Padres, Brewers, Cubs, Diamondbacks 1

numbers by the numbers

Here are a few baseball numbers that jump out at me.

- 1 = Josh Hamilton home runs in the month of June. On May 12, Hamilton had 18 dingers and there were articles written guaranteeing he would hit 75 by season's end. Whether it is a slump or injuries, he will be hard pressed to get 50 now.

- 12-13 = Mets record over their last 25 games, a stretch against the Phillies, Cardinals, Nationals, Yankees, Rays, Reds, and Orioles. That is tremendous! They made it through and they now sit at 5 games over .500.

- 43 2/3 = Consecutive innings thrown by R.A. Dickey without allowing an earned run, the longest since Orel Hershiser's record 59 in 1988. The streak ended yesterday.

And now, a bunch of stats for those Bronx Bombers.

- .219 = Yankees hitting with runners in scoring position, lowest total in the American League by a wide margin (Mariners at .239). By comparison, the Rangers are at .293 in that situation. Here are the main culprits:

Robinson Cano .154, Alex Rodriguez .209, Curtis Granderson .217, Mark Teixeira .221, Russell Martin .163, Eric Chavez .045.

- 112 = Yankees home runs, most in majors. A lot of people will point to the stadium they play their home games in and shrug off that stat. How about this next stat:

- 54 = Yankees home runs on the road, most in majors. And they've played fewer road games than the next five teams on the list.

- 52% = Yankee runs that have come via the home run, most in majors by far. That's why they are winning despite the earlier numbers.

- 6 = doubles by Alex Rodriguez. For the highest paid player in the sport I expect a little more power.

- 7.80 = C.C. Sabathia's ERA in first innings. The rest of the game his ERA is 2.73.

How it ought to be

The Midsummer Classic, baseball's All-Star Game is quickly approaching. Fan voting is well underway and rosters will be announced in the near future.

I follow the American League very closely. If I were responsible for selecting the roster, here's how I would go.

Here are the basic requirements for roster selection:
- 34 players per league (21 hitters, 13 pitchers. I don't know if that is set in stone but that's how it was for both leagues last year).
- Every team must be represented.

Starters in bold.

Catcher: Joe Mauer, A.J. Pierzynski

First Base: Prince Fielder, Paul Konerko

Second Base: Robinson Cano, Jason Kipnis, Ian Kinsler

Third Base: Miguel Cabrera, Edwin Encarnacion, Adrian Beltre

Shortstop: Derek Jeter, Elvis Andrus

Outfield: Josh Hamilton, Curtis Granderson, Jose Bautista, Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, Mike Trout, Josh Reddick

Designated Hitter: David Ortiz, Billy Butler

Pitchers:
Starter: Jered Weaver, Chris Sale, Justin Verlander, C.C. Sabathia, C.J. Wilson, Jason Hammel, David Price, Felix Hernandez.
Reliever: Jim Johnson, Fernando Rodney, Rafael Soriano, Chris Perez, Joe Nathan.

A few observations:

- I initially had Matt Harrison and Scott Downs in and left out Jered Weaver and Joe Nathan. Weaver missed a month with injury, but came back with a great outing last week. His reduced numbers are the best in the league right now. I switched him for teammate Downs. That left in imbalance with starting pitchers and relievers, so I did a double switch with teammates Harrison and Nathan. Weaver should be the starting pitcher and throw one inning.

- It is very interesting to note that the most popular and considered the best player in baseball Albert Pujols will likely miss the All Star game for the second year in a row. (But American League fans don't care for him anyway.)

- Current fan voting was taken into consideration above and will likely effect (affect?) the eventual roster. As of a week ago, Mike Napoli was the leading vote-getter for catcher, but that seems to be the only significant inconsistency. If Napoli gets in, it would be tough luck for A.J. Pierzynski.

Usually the Red Sox are among the highest represented teams. But regulars Adrian Gonzalez, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis (now traded), and Jon Lester have all been bad, and Jacoby Ellsbury, Josh Beckett, and Carl Crawford are all hurt. David Ortiz is having a monster season, leading the team in every offensive stat, and is an easy and obvious choice for starting designated hitter. When you consider that the Red Sox have been in last place the whole year, only sending one player is reasonable.

- The Athletics, Mariners, Royals, and Twins required some special attention for their representation. Joe Mauer was an easy selection and I think he should start. Felix Hernandez is having an off year but so is everyone else on the Mariners (and I don't think Kyle Seager will replace Adrian Beltre at 3rd). Reddick and Butler were pretty obvious selections for their teams.

- Fielder, Sabathia, Cabrera, Ortiz. That's a lot of fat people.

- This roster would yield the following team representation:

Rangers, Yankees, Angels = 5
White Sox, Tigers = 3
Orioles, Rays, Blue Jays, Indians = 2
Red Sox, Twins, Athletics, Mariners, Royals = 1

When Baseball and Fantasy Collide

So the lay person has an idea what I’m talking about:

As a stat junky, I love fantasy sports, an online game where you join a league with 10 or more “owners” and pick players from any team to fill your roster. In football only one team can own Tom Brady, Eli Manning, etc., in baseball only one team can own Jeter, etc. The only thing that matters is the statistics, and whoever compiles the best numbers wins. A little more complicated than that, but not much.

I’ve been playing fantasy baseball since like 1997. I love it. From 2006-09 I won 6 of my 12 leagues. I know what I’m doing. The season is really long and baseball, unlike football, is an everyday thing so lineups should be checked almost every day, along with the necessary research. It’s tough. When my kiddo was born last year I decided not to play, but for this year I sneaked myself into one league.

I don’t normally write about fantasy baseball. But this season for my team has been ludicrous. It’s crazy enough to write about.

- On draft day I was in that nebulous spot right after Robinson Cano got selected. I was stuck with either Jacoby Ellsbury or Joey Votto. I picked the Red Sox player, and I’ve been cursed ever since. Jacoby got hurt in April and is not close to returning. My team also had Brett Gardner and Lance Berkman, and those 3 players, my entire outfield, went on the DL within like 3 days of each other. Nick Swisher, my 4th outfielder got hurt sometime later and missed a week of games. (Meanwhile, Votto has been a Top 10 player.)

- For third base I went with a guy who has hit 141 homers the last 4 seasons and is in the prime of his career. This is Mark Reynolds, who in 2012 can’t hit his way out of a paper bag. Third base has been a black hole for my team and a revolving door.

- For my closers I snagged the Rays’ Kyle Farnsworth (got hurt minutes before the season started), Mets’ Frank Francisco (had an ERA over 8 in mid-May), and I picked up Red Sox’ Alfredo Aceves (dreadful) and David Robertson (has been hurt for over a month).

- I mentioned Berkman and Swisher, who also qualify at first base; my other first baseman drafted was Ike Davis. Statistically, he is among the three worst hitters in all of baseball. Ouch.

- My three sleeper pitchers were Matt Moore, Ubaldo Jimenez and Ted Lilly. Lilly is currently on the DL for the second time and the other two are still sleeping. I did smartly pick up Felipe Paulino for a couple great starts, and then he got injured.

Shouldn’t be a surprise that I sit in dead last, 12th place. I’ve had three or four injured players on my roster continuously for two months. The guys who are healthy are underperforming. Half of my starting lineup was picked off the waiver wire, and that’s a bad sign.

Is it football season yet?

Baseball Power Report, Memorial Day edition

The season has been going for a couple months, things are settling into position. Memorial Day, about a quarter of the way through the season, is really the first great opportunity to classify each team.

Let me say that finding a unique and interesting statistic or two for each of 30 teams takes a while. Especially as things change every day. This is like my 3rd attempt at it this season.

1. Rangers. They still lead the American League in runs scored, fewest runs allowed, and as a result, winning percentage, and that’s the magical triple crown in sports. Josh Hamilton is playing as good as anyone ever, and I believe he will win the batting Triple Crown. Yu Darvish is 5-0 at home (if Yu considers Texas his home).

2. Dodgers. 16-7 (68%) with Matt Kemp, 8-4 (67%) without him. 21-5 at Dodgers Stadium. At age 33, Chris Capuano has been one of baseball’s most consistent pitchers. Wait, who?

3. Nationals. Nats have won all five series they’ve played against division rivals. Pitching has been stellar. None of their starting five have even missed a start. Bryce Harper has come out with a bang. While none of their hitters has really stood out, everyone is contributing.

4. Cardinals. You may think this is high for a team trailing in their own division, but the Cardinals are showing all the signs of a great team. Their hitting post-Pujols and without injured Berkman is only behind the Texas Rangers. The pitching rotation has been healthy and very consistent. Compare this team to last year: new coach, 3-4 sluggers injured or gone, ace of the pitching staff hurt, led by Renaissance men Carlos Beltran and Rafael Furcal.

5. Rays. Joe Maddon continues to do his thing, reload and keep firing. Longoria has been hurt and the four Rays with the most at bats are all hitting .235 or worse yet the team is still in the middle in most offensive stats. Closer Kyle Farnsworth has been out all year and Fernando Rodney stepped in and has been brilliant. All Jeremy Hellickson does in the majors is win.

6. Orioles. O’s have been the most surprising team in baseball. The pitching has likely overachieved, but let’s see how long they can keep it up. Baltimore hasn’t had a winning team for 14 years. The bullpen currently holds a record of 11-5 and has been the brightest spot.

7. Reds. Aroldis Chapman has been practically unhittable and seems to have found his niche as a closer. Joey Votto continues to show he is a regular MVP candidate.

8. Yankees. The starting rotation is giving up tons of home runs, most in the majors. Andy Pettitte has been better than the Yankees could have hoped for in his return. After a sluggish start, Teixeira and Cano are heating up. A-Rod has hit in the cleanup spot all year but is 6th on the team in runs batted in, and that’s pathetic.

9. Indians. How they maintain a division lead, I don’t understand. Mediocre offense, below average starting pitching, worst bullpen ERA in the American League, -15 run differential. But a league-best 10-2 record in close games has made the difference for them. I don’t see that record holding up through summer.

10. Marlins. Quietly the hottest team in May. As a team they have stolen 58 bases, 13 more than anyone else.

11. Angels. After a dreadful start, they are right back in contention led by outstanding starting pitching. 7 wins in a row and they are back to .500.

12. White Sox. Winning 10 of their last 11 games has carried them close to the top of the division. Adam Dunn remembered how to hit. Paul Konerko, Mr. Quiet Consistence, is now batting close to .400.

13. Mets. Another very surprising start as the other team in New York is sitting in second place in the division. David Wright is really carrying the team. The bullpen has real issues. Injuries are starting to pile up and look at this upcoming schedule: Phillies, Cardinals, Nationals, Yankees, Rays, Reds, Orioles, and Yankees. Check back with me on June 24 and tell me how they are doing.

14. Phillies. Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee have not been their usual dominant selves this year, which is bad news with the poor hitting behind them. But Cole Hamels has stepped up to keep the team afloat. Carlos Ruiz has been one of few bright spots in the lineup, along with Hunter Pence’s power.

15. Blue Jays. Starting to fade after a nice start. Edwin Encarnacion (15) is only 2 home runs shy of last year’s total, making up for a slow start for Jose Bautista.

16. Braves. A rough week drops them from first to last. I know he’s a legend in Atlanta, but Chipper Jones should have retired years ago. Brandon Beachy has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 9 of his 10 starts.

17. Red Sox. Scoring runs is never an issue with the Red Sox. I don’t get why Bobby Valentine is playing his 3-time Gold Glove winning first baseman, Adrian Gonzalez, in right field, so that an unproductive Kevin Youkilis can play first.

18. Giants. Sad but true: Tim Lincecum has been the worst starting pitcher in the National League. Meanwhile, Melky Cabrera is going nuts, hitting .426 over the last month.

19. Tigers. Detroit was supposed to coast through an easy division but here we are at Memorial Day and they are 23-25. It’s not because of their stars as Verlander, Cabrera and Fielder have been excellent.

20. Pirates. Andrew McCutchen is developing into a real superstar, but he’s the only batter on the team that is doing anything. Pirates are dead last in runs scored. But the stellar pitching has kept them at .500 to this point. Let’s see if they can keep it up for 114 more games.

21. Diamondbacks. Last year looks like a one year wonder for the Dbacks, who haven’t had any player do particularly well so far.

22. Astros. They are hanging in there and I still can’t name any player on their team.

23. Athletics. Josh Reddick has been a lone bright spot for the A’s, who have now lost 6 in a row. As a team they are batting .211 and have scored the fewest runs in the AL. This is a team going nowhere in a hurry.

24. Mariners. 2-10 against the AL East, good thing they don’t play in that division.

25. Brewers. Rickie Weeks is batting .115 in May and striking out in 41% of his at bats.

26. Royals. 5-17 home record, what?

27. Rockies. The curse of Coors Field has returned as the Rockies rank at the bottom of the league in pitching. Carlos Gonzalez is leading the team in every offensive stat.

28. Padres. 16 games out of first place already.

29. Twins. Justin Morneau has found his power stroke since coming off the DL. The starting pitching has been awful, as is evident by 9 different starting pitchers being used this MONTH.

30. Cubs. Finally ended their 12-game losing streak, but that was 12 games too late. The bullpen has blown 57% of their save opportunities. Here’s a stat: 1-9 in games facing a lefty pitcher.

crazy but true

After an agonizing week capped by a pathetic 6-0 shutout against the Royals on Monday, I prepared to write a blog about the demise of the Yankees. A busy work schedule left me no time to write it. Two games later things look slightly better. The Yankees hit rock-bottom Monday night and hopefully the only way to go is up.

This season has left us no shortage of oddities. Here are a few stats that are worth a second look. Let me know of any others that you find.

- Winning cures all? The Cleveland Indians are off to a hot start, holding a surprisingly comfortable division lead. But despite being in first place, the Indians are dead-last in attendance. What gives? Meanwhile, the Phillies are struggling and currently in the division cellar. As you might guess, they lead all baseball in attendance.

- Game attendance isn't a number most people notice so how about some more interesting figures: the percent that ballparks fill up when a road team comes to town, or in other words, the road teams that draw the best crowds. #1 is the Cubs, and #2 is the Padres. Both teams are in last place. Logical, of course.

- As Nancy Kerrigan says, "why, whyyyyyyyyy?" It's not a statistic you have a lot of control over perhaps, but the numbers for times players get hit by a pitch is eye-opening. After 46 games the Seattle Mariners have been hit by a pitch 3, count them, 3 times. Meanwhile, those Tampa Bay Rays have been hit by 29 stray pitches. That's 10 times as many incidents.

- Must be the coaching: the same team leads the American League in strikeouts, times grounding into double plays, and worst stolen base percentage. They are 2nd to last in most errors. Naturally, this is the Baltimore Orioles, who happen to have the best record in the AL.

- Mets ownership decided that the field in their new stadium was too big and too hard to hit a homer in so they moved the fences in closer before the season. Last year the Mets averaged 0.67 home runs per game. This season? Less (0.56 per game).

- Key to winning is score more than your opponent, right? The Rangers have this figured out. They lead the American League in runs scored and fewest runs allowed.

- Time to move: the Mariners are batting .249 on the road and .201 at home.

- Pitching to win? The Phillies and Angels pitchers have had the most quality starts (6+IP, 3 ER or fewer). Both are in last place.

- Tigers are definitely off to a bad start. One reason could be that batting average of .129 with the bases loaded. Yikes!

- Why bother? Pinch hitters for the Blue Jays are 1-19 (.053). The Indians have only used 6 pinch hitters and don't have a hit.

- Season slump: Rickie Weeks is batting a woeful .155 (coincidentally, after 155 at bats).

- Thanks, guys: Statistically, Red Sox Clay Buchholz has been the worst starting pitcher to still have a job. He also has a 4-2 record. How is that? 12.22 runs of support per game, yeah, that would do it.

- Compare that to poor Ervin Santana, who's Angels got shut out in 5 straight games that he pitched.

- So if each team has 5 starting pitchers that would be 150 current starting pitchers in baseball. Yankees' Phil Hughes (11), Hiroki Kuroda (10), and Ivan Nova (10) are all in the Top 8 for most home runs allowed. Sabathia (8) isn't far behind.

- Batters are hitting .167 against Nationals' Gio Gonzalez this year. That's nasty.

Miller's NBA Playoff Predictions

No time for anything cute, straight to the point.

EAST

Bulls over 76ers 4-0
Heat over Knicks 4-0
Pacers over Magic 4-2
Celtics over Hawks 4-2

Bulls over Celtics 4-1
Heat over Pacers 4-2

Heat over Bulls 4-2

WEST

Spurs over Jazz 4-2
Thunder over Mavs 4-3
Lakers over Nuggets 4-3
Grizzlies over Clippers 4-2

Grizzlies over Spurs 4-2
Thunder over Lakers 4-2

Thunder over Grizzlies 4-2

FINALS

Heat over Thunder 4-1

reflections on Opening Weekend

What a sports weekend. And yeah, Bubba Watson won a mostly uneventful Masters and the Knicks won a couple big games, but baseball was all that truly mattered. My wife, even my 14-month old son sat with daddy and watched America's great ball game. What's better than that?

1. Gotta start with my Yankees. A lot to say after an 0-3 start, something from each pathetic game. First game, first inning, ace on the hill. Let CC pitch! Joe Girardi's afraid of Sean Rodriguez in the first game of the season? Over-coaching all ready. Let him pitch!

1b. Hiroki Kuroka can't get out lefties. No secrets in his scouting report. Coming from the soft-slugging NL West to the nightmarish AL East, what was Cashman thinking would happen?

1c. Raul Ibanez was brought here to be the DH. So in the 3rd game of the year Girardi has him in right field, and in the first inning the first ball hit to him gets by him and costs the Yankees a run. Is Nick Swisher so exhausted after two games that he can only DH?

2. Lest my heckling Red Sox fan friends feel any justification in heckling, the worst bullpen in baseball is stationed in Boston. Add to that the fact that Beckett and Buchholz each allowed 7 earned runs in their starts, and things aren't looking so good in Beantown.

3. Toronto won their first game in 16 innings, the second game in 12 innings, and in the third game they had the bases loaded in the 9th down by one. Let's see how well the bullpen holds up.

4. It probably says more about the Twins than the Orioles, but after the 3 game series the O's team ERA is 1.00.

5. Andrew McCutchen had walk-off hits in back-to-back games for the Pirates. He is a stud.

6. The Phillies have a weak lineup, below average even for the NL. Only Philly fans will recognize half the names in the starting lineup, and the other half are past their prime. That being said, a season with Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels will cover some of those offensive shortcomings.

7. The Giants are praised for also having one of the best top of the rotations. Lincecum, Cain and Bumgarner have a collective ERA over 8.2.

8. The first series of the season is open season for overreactions. But the one team that looks much better than I expected is the St Louis Cardinals. The starting rotation is still strong without Carpenter and the hitters are showing some pop, too.