Tuesday, March 16, 2010

let the Madness begin

Okay, last week I said how much I don't like college basketball. It was a bit of an exaggeration. The NCAA Tournament, I do like. Now that Conference Tournaments are over, this is the time to get excited about college basketball.

There are only two teams that I care about in college basketball (UVM and BYU) and both are in the West region so we'll start there.

WEST
I would like to point out that I think it's strange that Syracuse is the #1 seed in the West and they have a first round matchup with Vermont.

That being said, how cool is that Vermont plays Syracuse again! I still remember where I was in 2005 when Vermont defeated Syracuse in one of the biggest upsets in college basketball history. And I picked that game, too. This year Syracuse is a little better, but I like the team Catamounts. A #1 seed has never lost a first round game, don't wet your pants if it happens this year. Unfortunately for the Catamounts, they are playing in Buffalo so it's a home game for the Orange.

BYU got a pretty good draw, matching up with the last at large team to make the field, Florida. Jimmer Fredette is one of the most exciting players in the country. BYU has lost 8 straight tournament games, but this is their best shot. They are the best shooting team in the country (leading everyone in FT%, something that has killed them in the past). And even more exciting, if they make the Sweet 16 they'll have a game at Energy Solutions Arena in Salt Lake City. I see a miracle one win.

Two weeks ago Kansas State was #5 in the country. Almost half of their 7 losses were to their homestate rival Jayhawks and lucky for KSU they won't play them for a while. Pittsburgh has beaten Syracuse, West Virginia, and Villanova (all 1-2 seeds) and I think they have the best shot to reach the Final Four from this bracket.

Upsets to watch out for:
Syracuse will lose to either Gonzaga or Pitt. Murray State will beat Vanderbilt.

EAST

So I just used ESPN AccuScore and it says #11 Washington will win this region. Don't count on it.

Kentucky is one of the most talented teams in the country. They have the nation's top point guard, one of the top big men, and a great coach with tourney experience. Their two superstars are freshman, which means mistakes can happen, but Kentucky is with Kansas in the unquestioned top 2 teams in the country.

West Virginia won the Big East Tourney, and while that is one of the best accomplishments of the season, that won't necessarily help you from here on out. Only two Big East Tourney champs have reached the Final Four in the last 11 years, and I don't like West Virginia's chances.
Being an alumni from the MWC, I really like New Mexico, 5-0 against Top 25 teams.
Texas won their first 17 games and got to #1 in the land showing that they can be scary, but the Longhorns are the worst free throw shooting team in the bracket, and in a tournament full of close games this will lead to an early exit.

Upsets to watch out for:
Washington will beat Marquette. Temple will beat Wisconsin. New Mexico will beat West Virginia.

MIDWEST

Kansas is the best team in the country and has been all year. Earning the top overall position is supposed to give you a little break. I can't believe that they got put in this region, the toughest region by far with the best #2, #4, Final Four Michigan State at #5, best #6 and #9. So while I think they are best team and would be the no-question favorite to win it all, there's so much opportunity to slip up or tire out.

Ohio State has the best player in the tournament, Evan Turner. Sometimes ('Cuse with Carmelo) that leads to a championship, but other times (Texas with Durant) it just led to an early exit due to a lack of other support. Georgetown went far in the Big East tourney, but they have been too inconsistent to win very many games here. Tennessee has beaten Kansas and Kentucky already this season, which shows that they can fight with anybody. UNLV is usually ready for some wins, taking advantage of a hometown MWC tourney once again to get in, but they had a "down" year, and they have a rough matchup against a strong Northern Iowa team. I think the most interesting team in this region is Michigan State, who aren't the best team around but have the best coach in the tournament, Tom Izzo.

Upsets to watch out for:
Tennessee will beat Georgetown. Northern Iowa will beat UNLV.

SOUTH

Duke is the weakest of the top seeds but they still were placed in the weakest bracket. I hate Duke and want to pick them to lose, but it just won't happen. Villanova is the weakest #2 and has played poorly recently, Purdue is expected to get bounced early, Notre Dame barely made it in and they are still a 6 seed. I think this will be the most headline-grabbing region with a lot of upsets possible because of the weak high seeds. Utah State or St Mary's will be the lowest seed to reach the Sweet 16.

Upsets to watch for:
Utah State over Texas A&M. Sienna over Purdue. St Mary's over Richmond. Baylor into the Elite 8.

FINAL FOUR PICKS
Kansas (champ)
Kentucky (runner-up)
Duke
Kansas State

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