a Lifetime movie waiting to happen

Kurt Warner announced his retirement today, ending one of the great storybook careers in sports' history.

It's so amazing it's fun to write about. Warner played college at Nortern Iowa. where he was buried in the depth chart until his senior year. He went on to win Conference Offensive Player of the Year. No NFL scouts seemed to have taken notice and he went undrafted. He was invited to Packers' training camp but was released before any preseason games.

At this point Kurt started working at a grocery store stocking shelves for $5.50 an hour.

Kurt went to the Arena Football League and played for his hometown Iowa Barnstormers. In his two years there he was First-Team All-Arena and the Barnstormers went to the championship twice.

Next he went to NFL Europe and led that league in touchdowns and passing yards.

In 1998 he was finally signed by the St Louis Rams, a team that hadn't been to the playoffs in a decade, and buried again behind legends Tony Banks and Steve Bono (a possible reason they hadn't been to the playoffs in a decade). And after they were cut the Rams signed iron horse Trent Green for 1999, who got hurt in the preseason. Coach Dick Vermeil emotionally and doubtfully exclaimed about his 4-12 team: "We will rally around Kurt Warner and we will play good football."

That season the Warner-led Rams became "The Greatest Show on Turf". They went from twelve losses to thirteen wins, won one of the most exciting Super Bowls ever against the Tenessee Titans, Kurt Warner won NFL MVP honors, and was also named Super Bowl MVP after throwing for a SB-record 414 yards including a long game winning touchdown with two minutes left to break my heart. He also helped me win my first fantasy football league championship when I picked him off waivers after Week 1.

Two years later the Rams won 14 games, Warner won league MVP for the second time, and the Rams again played in the Super Bowl. Warner threw for then-second all-time 365 yards and rallied the Rams back from a two-touchdown 4th quarter deficit (before Adam Viniateri won it for the Patriots) in another one of the most exciting Super Bowls ever.

A few years later Warner got signed by the Arizona Cardinals, a team with one playoff win in the modern era. In 2007 he helped them get to .500 for the first time in nine seasons. Despite the presence of Matt Leinhart, Ken Wisenhunt wisely changed his mind and started Warner under center in 2008, and Warner had another huge year leading the Cardinals to their first ever home playoff win (well, second including 1947). Three weeks later the Cardinals were making their first ever SB trip. Warner threw for 377 yards and three touchdowns, including one reminiscent of the winner in his first Super Bowl, before the Steelers had a miracle of their own in another one of the most exciting Super Bowls ever.

And Warner's final season is one to remember. On Sep 20, he broke the NFL single-game completion percentage, going 24 for 26 (92.3%). Nov 8, a week after throwing 5 INTs, Kurt threw for 5 TDs no INTs. And on Jan 10, Kurt Warner had one of the greatest playoff games ever, completing 29/33 passes with 5 touchdowns in the big win over the Packers.

Other than all that, it was a pretty normal career.

The Question: Does Kurt Warner belong in the Hall of Fame?

Argument against: Only had five or six great seasons, with five straight poor seasons in the middle. His NFL career started very late (age 28), and he received significant injuries his whole career. Therefore, he was unable to compile the huge numbers that compare with other quarterbacks in the Hall of Fame.

Argument for: A player virtually unknown when he started, Kurt Warner changed the climate of two terrible franchises, leading them to their only Super Bowl appearances ever. He was the leader of "The Greatest Show on Turf," the only team to score 500 points three seasons in a row. He was a big game player, a winner, holding a 9-4 playoff record. He also has the three highest passing games in Super Bowl history. He is one of the most accurate passers in history, completing 65.5% in his career, and second all-time in passing yards per game. He was incredibly tough; the reason why he got hurt so much was that he would hold onto the ball long enough for Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Larry Fitzgerald, and Anquain Boldin to get downfield, and he was never afraid to throw the ball knowing that he would get hit hard in the process. He went out on top, playing at as high a level as any in his career. And aside from all that, he is one of the most humble, best people in all of sports, appropriate for the Hall of Fame, and a great family man. Quoting the Cardinals general manager Rod Graves: "I've only had the privilege of being around one other person that I can say was close to him and that was Walter Payton. I think when you have an extraordinary player and one who is just as extraordinary off the field, then you realize you were in the presence of someone special."

Super Bowl Chatter

You know how much I love sports, especially the NFL, and the biggest day of the whole year is coming in a couple weeks. I was accurate in my predictions of last week's games: Colts scoring 17+ points = win (and Garcon and Collie having big days) and Saints winning a high-scoring affair at home.

But now I am in a little predicament: I have no idea who to root for! Patriots are out, my playoff picks Chargers and Cowboys are gone, the other local team (Jets) finally landed. Both remaining teams are over a thousand miles away from my home.

Colts Cons
1. I support three NFL teams, and the team in Indy is the biggest rival for two of them (Patriots and Titans). Yankees fans never support the Red Sox.
2. Along with that, as Tom Brady and Peyton are huge rivals, any support I give Peyton brings Brady a little lower, right? If I want to say Brady is the best quarterback in the NFL I can't see Manning win his second SB.
3. I'm still bitter about Jim Caldwell's decision to bench Peyton and most of the other starters in the 3rd quarter in a close game with a 14-0 record. Give history a chance!
4. They have been one of the most boring teams to watch all year.

Pro-Colts
1. They do have a BYU alum starting for them, Austin Collie.
2. They are a well-run franchise that has consistently been among the NFL's best teams for an entire decade. Excellence deserves to be awarded.
3. My wife went to school in Indiana and her brother is studying there now, too.

Ain't Saints
1. I've got no real connection to the team or city.
2. Even with a win last week, they really didn't look very good on offense or defense, and (except for the Cardinals game), it's been like that for about 6 weeks.
3. Never been good before so why now?

For all the Saints
1. It is nice to see a city rally around a team so strongly. The Saints mean more to New Orleans than any other football team can relate. It is very cliché, but the city of New Orleans deserves a championship after going through what they did with Katrina.
2. They've got Drew Brees but no standout players after that so it's a complete team effort.
3. They torched the Patriots and Giants so I have to give them props for that.
4. Saints are a likeable underdog and I tend to pull for underdogs, especially when history won't be made the other way (like Patriots a couple years ago or Roger Federer winning a million straight matches).

Okay, so that is the situation. What do you think? Do you have a case for why I should pull for either team?

Championship Weekend Preview

A few storylines to follow this weekend.

1. The playoffs feature the 3 best quarterbacks in the NFL (apologies to Mr Rivers). Meanwhile, Mark Sanchez was one of the league's 3 worst starting QBs.

2. How much do you trust your kicker? Cardinals, Chargers, Cowboys, Bengals, Packers, and Patriots kickers have missed field goals en route to an early playoff exit. Now we are left with Jay Feely, Garrett Hartley, Matt Stover, and Ryan Longwell, as unlikely a bunch as ever. Especially with the three great quarterbacks remaining, don't expect coaches sending out their kicking team with the game on the line. Plan on a bunch of 4th down plays this week.

3. There is a chance that we could see Brett Favre in the Super Bowl against the team he played for last season, the Jets, which ended in a lot of chaos and disappointment. Wouldn't that be something: the Jets couldn't make the playoffs with Favre but they can make the Super Bowl with a rookie a year later. Oh well, we'll see.

4. The Saints are hosting their first NFC Championship game and trying to make their first Super Bowl appearance in franchise history. The Vikings have been there four times but never won.

5. One of the best matchups to watch this week is Peyton vs. Darelle Revis. It is likely that the Colt's top receiver Reggie Wayne will be on Revis Island, a lonely place. How often will 18 throw his way?

6. Each of the quarterbacks is in an interesting situation.
a.) For Brett, it's go out in glory and stake his claim as the best QB in history. With all of his passing records, one more he can still set is to become the first quarterback to win the Super Bowl with two different teams.
b.) Peyton needs to win this game or he will always play second fiddle to Tom Brady. If he wins the Super Bowl then he likely sits above even Joe Montana.
c.) Drew Brees has had an incredible career so far and some of the best passing seasons ever but has yet to play in a Super Bowl. Doing so elevates him to elite status and in the same category as Peyton, Favre, and Brady (even if Saints lose SB).
d.) Mark Sanchez is trying to become the first rookie QB to win a Super Bowl (I assume), an incredible achievement that would launch his career for a team that has done nothing since Broadway Joe Namath forty years ago.

7. Speaking of rookies, either Rex Ryan or Jim Caldwell will coach in a Super Bowl in their rookie season, and I'm unsure if that's ever happened.

8. Week 16, 3rd quarter: 14-0 Colts up 15-10, Peyton gets benched, and the 7-7 Jets win 29-15 in one of the biggest coaching controversies of the decade. Jets get in because of that. Now we have a rematch that will finally clean up that story forever, either way.

My Predictions

- Vikings and Saints each won last week by a whopping 31 points, so you cannot argue that these aren't the best two teams in the NFC. Percy Harvin has issues and probably won't play. Vikings secondary is thin and Drew Brees will expose that. High-scoring affair.
Saints 41, Vikings 28

- The top rushing offense versus the worst rushing offense. Clark, Garcon, and Collie will be key for the Colts, and if the Jets stop them they have a chance. Rookie Jet Greene can bust a big one, but the Colts defense is too good to allow anything more. Key number is 17: if the Colts reach 17 points they win, any less and the Jets will win.
Colts 24, Jets 10

No love for New Jersey

Let's get to the bottom line: wins are all that is important in sports.

We are halfway through the NBA season and the Nets are sitting at a record of 3-38. Quick math, that projects to 6-76, easily passing the 1973 76ers for most losses ever.

So far they already have losing streaks of 18 and 10 games, and are currently in another 9-game skid in the middle of a road trip.

How did they get so bad?

Devin Harris is their best player, but he's probably the 25th best point guard in the league. And yes, they traded Jason Kidd to get him.
Vince Carter was traded for Tony Battie, Rafer Alston (no longer on team), and Courtney Lee.
Speaking of trades, how about Richard Jefferson (Nets' highest-scoring player) for Bobby Simmons and Yi Jianlian a year ago?
Simmons is making $11M this season, averaging 5 points (when he does play).
Yi is starting at power forward, and the 7-footer from China has reached 10 rebounds in only 3 games.
(Richard Jefferson is now starting for the San Antonio Spurs and Carter starting for the Magic.)
Tony Battie is also getting paid $6.6M to sit on the bench.
The starting lineup of Harris, Brook Lopez, Lee, Douglas-Roberts, and Yi is worse than the bench for the Celtics, Mavericks, Lakers, Magic, Nuggets, and probably half the rest of the league.

So yes, they have some "young talent," with "future potential," but 5 years down the road this team won't have 30 wins as it is now assembled. This team is in the running for worst team in any sport in history. They will lose 75 games this year.

NFL

Meanwhile, I'm rooting for those J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets. They are the local team and they are the likeable underdogs, the Cinderella story, but let's be honest. What have they done? To reach the AFC Championship game, the opposing kickers have missed 5 straight field goal tries. That has never happened in history. And to get into the playoffs, Peyton Manning got pulled, and the Bengals took a day off in Week 17. The Jets boast the #1 defense in the NFL. Cedric Benson ran for 169 yards on them in the first round. Last week the Chargers outgained them by 80 yards. And the reason they have the #1 ground game in the league is because they have the #31 passing game led by a rookie who threw nearly twice as many interceptions as touchdowns.

The Jets are lucky, and sometimes lucky is better than being good. But facing the Colts with a Super Bowl waiting, the Jets really have no chance. The Colts have a statement to make, Peyton is trying to cement his place in history as the greatest QB in history, and the Jets are dancing and talking like they are the best thing since swiss cheese. This is not a team of destiny, this is a team of cocky overachievers that will get embarrassed on Sunday. Matt Stover ain't missing any kicks in the dome, Dwight Freeney will harrass Mark Sanchez all day, and the Colts receivers will have the best game the Jets have given up all year.

The Jets are one win from the Super Bowl but they are still one of the worst playoff teams ever. The Colts could be 17-0 right now if they wanted to be. This game will reflect that. Shonn Greene might break through for a big run, but this game will finish Colts 24, Jets 10.

The Most Dominating Team in all of Sports

Last year I moved to Connecticut where I've been a little closer to something amazing. This may be the only time that I ever write a thing about women's basketball but it deserves to be written.

My eyes opened up when I read in the paper that the UConn women beat Norteastern by 70 points to open the season. (Sure, Northeastern doesn't have a great team, but they are still a college basketball team.) And then on Monday they beat Duke to run their winning streak to an incredible 57 games. Coincidentally, that's second in women's Division I history behind UConn from 2001-2003.

This season UConn is 18-0, but it's so much more than that. The BYU Men are 18-1 but they haven't played anybody good. Here's who UConn has beaten this year:

#2 Stanford by 12
#3 Notre Dame by 34
#7 North Carolina by 41
#7 @ Duke by 33
#10 @ Florida St by 19
#12 @ Texas by 25

Their scoring margin is 39.7. In other words, their average win is by 40 points.

And yes, they've won 57 straight games, going undefeated last year as well (closest tournament game 19 points). But wait, there's more. They've won 32+ games four years in a row, with a composite record of 153-11 since November 2005. That's a lot of numbers and stats; all I need to say they are rediculously good. And after they sweep through the rest of the season they will set a new record with 77 or 78 straight wins because there is no other team in the country that can compete with the Lady Huskies. This is the dynasty in sports.

Playoff Review

Picking the Saturday games I'm 4-0 and I'm 0-4 for the Sunday games. This weekend's games were very boring, at least the 3 that I saw. The one that I missed was the only competitive one. Another tough week for kickers as losing teams missed six field goals.

Week's Most Valuable Player: Sidney Rice
Least Valuable Player: Nate Kaeding
Best Team Performance: New Orleans Saints
Worst Team Performance: Baltimore Ravens
Top Coach: Rex Ryan
Most Disappointing Player: LaDainian Tomlinson

Saints 45, Cardinals 14

The Cardinals scored 51 last week. After their first play against the Saints, they only had one more score the whole game. I don't know what defenses do at practice but I doubt the word "tackle" ever came up for the Arizona team. They were trying to play two-hand-touch against the Saints, and Reggie Bush & Co. were clearly playing a different style. The pathetic attempts of tackling by the Cardinals made this game almost unwatchable. The Saints scored touchdowns (no FGs) on 5 of their first 6 posessions. On the other side, the Saints harrassed Kurt Warner the entire game and he never had much of a chance. He also took one of the biggest shots I've ever seen a quarterback take after an interception. For the record, the team that won the turnover game did win as I expected. Total Saints domination in this one.

Colts 20, Ravens 3
Lots of dumb penalties, dropped passes, interceptions, fumbles, the Ravens were terrible. And then later when the Ravens were down by 17 early in the fourth quarter, every play was a dump-off pass (that was often dropped). Anytime they actually broke through or picked off Manning they dropped the ball. The Colts offense wasn't that good, they averaged less than 2 yards per carry for 25 rushes. But the game totally fell apart for the Ravens before halftime when the Colts scored and then the Ravens went 3-and-out using only like 20 seconds, giving Peyton plenty of time to reach the endzone. And just to make sure, they committed a couple of bad penalties to bring the Colts closer. This was the most boring playoff game I can remember.

Vikings 34, Cowboys 3
This was the most shocking of all the games for me. I was right that it wasn't close but I got it the wrong way. Dallas only had three punts, but they also fumbled twice, threw an interception, and missed a couple field goals. Romo was under pressure all day and was sacked 6 times. Brett had a field day, throwing 4 touchdown passes without a turnover. The most controversial story of this game was inside the 2-minute warning when Minnesota went for it on 4th and 3, already up by 24, and Favre threw a touchdown pass. Keith Brooking needs to shut up and play. I have no problem with the Vikings going for it on 4th down with a big lead. This is the NFL, you are getting paid to make a stop. If you can't stop them, why should they stop for you?

Jets 17, Chargers 14
Unfortunately, I missed this entire game so I had to catch the highlights later. Say what you want, the kicker Nate Kaeding lost this game for the Chargers, missing 3 field goals. I don't know what it is about the Jets, but opposing kickers are 0 for 5 in field goal tries in the playoffs. Darelle Revis was thrown at 4 times with 2 pass deflections, a tackle for a 5 yard loss, and an interception. LaDainian Tomlinson did nothing, signifying the end of his tenure with the Chargers. The Chargers made a controversial call attempting an onside kick before the 2-minute warning but they couldn't stop the Jets ground game anyway. Congratulations to the rookie coach, rookie quarterback, and rookie runningback who led the Jets to the win.

Playoff Weekend Preview

Last week I got the Jets' upset and the Cowboys right and, if you begin after the first quarter, I was actually pretty close on the Pats/Ravens game (okay nevermind). The Cards/Packers game was a thriller. The same defense that yielded over 500 yards to Big Ben a few weeks ago got lit up by Kurt Warner, wow.

Week's Most Valuable Player: Kurt Warner
Least Valuable Player: Shayne Graham
Best Team Performance: Cowboys
Worst Team Performance: Bengals
Top Coach: Rex Ryan
Most Disappointing Player: Donovan McNabb

This Week's Games

Saints vs. Cardinals
Arizona gets a similar matchup to last week: a big passing team with a ton of weapons, good running game, opportunist defense. Warner had one of the greatest games a quarterback has ever had and it still took a questionable call in overtime to win. Sean Payton and Drew Brees have also won big playoff games before (Saints made it to the NFC Championship in 2006/07). This game looks to be another shoot-out, and I say the team that wins the turnover battle wins.

Colts vs. Ravens
Colts haven't played well for three weeks and they are playing a physical Ray Lewis-led team that starts out hard and pounds you on the ground. There are a couple matchups here: Colts defense is always poor against the run and the Ravens pound the ball on the ground. The Ravens' secondary is weak and the Colts have a great air game. The Colts will start rusty and I see the Ravens taking an early lead. However, Peyton doesn't exactly struggle in those situations.

Vikings vs. Cowboys
Adrian Peterson reached 100 yards three times this year, and two of those were to the Browns and Lions. He's getting shut down this week by Dallas. That leaves Favre to air it out and the Dallas defense wins that battle. Ware will own the Vikings' line. I think the Cowboys will get a big lead early and keep it that way. People are picking this to be the weekend's best game, I don't think it will be that close.

Chargers vs. Jets
Vincent Jackson takes a visit to Revis Island, but Antonio Gates will pick up the slack and Malcom Floyd will be active, too. Jets have swagger and think they can win. They might be going across country, but Southern California isn't unfamiliar territory for Mark Sanchez. Chargers haven't lost since October. Jets will have a great running game again but if they are trailing by 10+ in the second half they will have to go to Sanchez, and there's no trust with Braylon Edwards.

Saints 38
Cardinals 34

Colts 17
Ravens 16

Cowboys 28
Vikings 17

Chargers 24
Jets 17

Jarrod Washburn turns down offer

So I saw today (link) that veteran lefty pitcher Jarrod Washburn turned down a one-year, $5 million dollar offer from the Minnesota Twins. Who does this guy think he is? He's been in the league 12 years and has more losses than wins. In fact, he hasn't had in a winning record the last 5 seasons. He's topped 11 wins only once, and that was seven years ago. Last year he started well for the Mariners but faltered miserably down the stretch with the Tigers.

The offer was from the Twins, a well-coached team that made the playoffs last year. Are there any other playoff teams that would be interested in him? No, though the Brewers have expressed interest (whup-dee-do). In this economy where teams are cutting way back on spending and there's no way the Yankees, Mets, or Red Sox would want him, what's he thinking? He's 35 years old and a very average starting pitcher! Take the $5mil and be happy playing for a winning team.

My Playoff Predictions

This week's games:

Jets 20
Bengals 13

Packers 28
Cardinals 14

Patriots 20
Ravens 18

Cowboys 34
Eagles 27

Championship games:
Colts and Chargers
Cowboys and Saints

Chargers over Cowboys

NFL Playoff Preview

The road to the Super Bowl begins this weekend including three repeat matchups from last week. Any of this week's winners will have to go on the road if they want to play in the Big Game, but the 2009 Cardinals, 2008 Giants and 2006 Steelers all did that recently.

The AFC looks like a two-horse race but any of the six NFC teams has potential to put together a nice playoff run; it's hard to pick a favorite.

Here's a preview of how each team and my rating (1-5 stars) on their chances to hoist the Lombardi trophy.

AFC

Baltimore Ravens(6 seed)
They have a great ground game led by Ray Rice. Last year they made it to the AFC Championship by relying on that groung game and Flacco playing mistake-free football. They have a lot of blowout wins against the pit of the NFL that really pad their overall team stats. Like the Pats, the defense is spotty and Ed Reed won't play much. This is an emotional team and emotion often leads to mistakes like penalties and poor decisions.
Their chances: ** Ray Lewis leads this team that won playoff games last year. But even after Brady's Pats they would face Peyton's Colts, awful matchups for a depleted secondary, and both teams have beaten the Ravens already this season.

New York Jets (5 seed)
The Jets had the #1 ranked defense and #1 ranked running game this season, which sounds like the perfect recipe for a Super Bowl contender. Revis Island is a lonely place for a wide receiver. Rex Ryan proclaimed his team as the Super Bowl favorite, which definitely raised some eyebrows, but why not? The New York Jets have been losers for 40 years, a coach with some optimism is a breath of fresh air. And they have beated the Colts, Patriots, and Bengals this season, whatever the situation was. They also won 4 of their last 6 games, including a completely dominating performance last Sunday. The only thing holding back the Jets is probably the most important factor: one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL, rookie Mark Sanchez. In the Jets 9 losses he threw 17 interceptions to 6 touchdowns.
Their chances: *** The key is to keep Sanchez from throwing away the game; sad but true. I give no hope for him leading a comeback. Unfortunately, that philosophy can only get you so far.

Cincinnati Bengals (4 seed)
Bengals have a decent QB, decent RB, decent receivers, and decent defense. Really no edge anywhere. They have no momentum (lost 3 of last 4), and got shut down by the Jets last week. Offense has underachieved all year.
Their chances: * There is no reason to expect this team wins two games.

New England Patriots(3 seed)
Brady, Belichek and Moss are still intact, but the biggest headline from last week was the loss of Wes Welker, possibly their most important player. They are counting on Julian Edelman to be a Welker clone. The running game is actually pretty good and deep with Fred Taylor, Laurence Maroney, Sammy Morris and Kevin Faulk all healthy. This is the worst defense of any recent Patriot team, especially against the pass.
Their chances: *** It has been one of the worst coaching seasons for Belichek, but with him and Brady they aren't out until they are out.

San Diego Chargers (2 seed)
They haven't been to the Super Bowl in fifteen years but they win a lot of playoff games. Rivers is a strong MVP candidate and a good leader. Sproles is electric and LT is LT, even if he's a little older. The Chargers scored at least 20 points in every game this season. They have the longest winning streak in the NFL at 11 games. Even their second team can win a game.
Their chances: ***** They would have to win in Indy, but that doesn't scare them.

Indianapolis Colts (1 seed)
Peyton Manning plays on their team, maybe you've heard of him. They lost the last two and have a bye so there is no momentum, but the extra rest will be good for the banged up Colts. They can't depend on their ground game but still went 14-0 with it. History doesn't bode well for the Colts in a season like this where they started hot and finished conservatively.
Their chances: ***** Home field throughout, with 18 throughout they have as good a chance as anybody.

NFC

Philadelphia Eagles (6 seed)
This was my Super Bowl pick a couple weeks ago but that blowout in Dallas makes me think again. They have the weapons to be as explosive as any team with DeSean Jackson, Maclin, Celek, Westbrook, and McCoy with McNabb but all of a sudden they look vulnerable. Also, the defense isn't very good. They can still win via the big play and I'd like to see Andy Reid utilize Michael Vick into the offense somehow.
Their chances: ** They have zero wins against playoff teams, including two losses to the Cowboys. Had they won in Week 17 I'd give them 5 stars. McNabb is one of the NFL's biggest chokers, I'm sorry to say, but he's also been in more big games than anybody else.

Green Bay Packers (5 seed)
They were two inches away from winning the last 8 in a row. And in the last 7 games Aaron Rodgers was only sacked 9 times compared to 41 times in the first 9 games, so the o-line has improved dramatically this season. Lots of quality players at the skill positions on offense. The defense ranked #1 against the run and, led by upcoming Defensive Player of the Year Charles Woodson, was tops in the league with 30interceptions. However, they also gave up 500+ yards to Ben Roethlisberger a few weeks ago. That makes for an interesting matchup against Kurt Warner who can throw for 400 yards or 4 picks.
Their chances: *** Two losses against the Vikings, but they likely wouldn't face them again until the NFC Championship game. I don't like teams that commit a lot of penalties, but they are really on a roll and could make a nice run. They showed they can win in Arizona already.

Arizona Cardinals (4 seed)
The most unpredictable team in the NFL. They have one of the most potent offenses, but scored 21 or less in all six losses. They are dealing with two important injuries to Rogers-Cromartie and Anquan Boldin. Facing the stiff Packers run defense, they will likely have to rely on Kurt Warner's air game.
Their chances: ** They won three playoff games last year. The blowout loss to the Packers should be a good wake-up call. They just aren't consistent enough to repeat as NFC champions this year.

Dallas Cowboys (3 seed)
If you forget their history and just look at what they have put together this season there's a lot to be excited for. Romo has been fantastic, Austin Miles is as good as TO without the distractions, the ground game is solid, and they have dealt with fewer injuries than any other team. They have back-to-back shutouts and a 3rd win in a row before that against the then-undefeated Saints.
Their chances: **** Neither Romo nor Wade Phillips have won a playoff game before, despite good regular season success. Roy Williams drops a million passes. However, they have a chance to sweep the Eagles in Dallas. They seem to be the only team that knows how to shut down DeSean Jackson and that's good news for Big D. This looks like it could be their year.

Minnesota Vikings (2 seed)
Blowing out the Giants was a good tune-up for this team who seemed to peak too early. We don't really know what team to expect after the bye, the team that shut down the Giants and Bengals, or the team that got beat by the Cardinals, Panthers and Bears in December? Adrian Peterson is the best running back in the playoffs and just needs to hold onto the football. Brett has the weapons to throw to in Rice, Harin, and Shiancoe.
Their chances: *** If they rely on the ground game and don't fumble, they will win. Success on the ground will open up big plays in the passing game. And if Favre doesn't make poor decisions throwing the ball, they will win. Unfortunately, I'm betting he will throw some costly interceptions and they will end up like the Bears' game. How much should you expect from the 40-year-old QB in January?

New Orleans Saints (1 seed)
Things were looking mighty good after 13 straight wins, but 3 straight poor performances to finish the season raises every other team's hopes. The ball bounced the Saints' way every time this season and that kind of luck doesn't happen in the playoffs. But anyway, Brees and Co. are really good.
Their chances: *** They get homefield throughout, but the Saints look very vulnerable right now. However, a performance like they had against New England will beat anybody.

Week 16 1/2 NFL Power Report

Last week the playoff scenario was a complete mess but all of a sudden the AFC is basically left to two important games: Ravens vs. Raiders, and Jets vs. Bengals. If the Ravens and Jets win, as they should (Bengals will likely rest their main players), the 12 teams are decided.

I find this quite remarkable, considering I gave the Jets 5% chance of making the playoffs and left the Ravens at 35%. You can thank the Raiders for that from a few weeks ago in Denver.

That being said, the Raiders seem to pull out a good game every few weeks and despite starting Charlie Frye, you never know. I'm pretty proud that I included this game in my Most Important Games list a month ago.

Power Report
Included after the team name is a 5-star rating of how "powerful" they actually are right now.

The Head of the Class
1. Colts **** The fact that the coach had to put Peyton & Co. on the bench for them to lose may be the clinching factor in the MVP discussion. It was a terrible decision, by the way.
2. Chargers ***** Hottest team in the league, they put on a clinic in Tennessee last week. Rivers is running a well-oiled machine. I expect to see them in the Super Bowl. In their current 10-game winning streak, they have beat @ NY Giants, Eagles, @ Broncos, @ Cowboys, Bengals, and @ Titans, so there's no reason they should stop in the playoffs.
3. Eagles **** This jump might be premature with a big test this week in Dallas with a week off in the balance. There are so many big-play weapons on the offense. The defense isn't great, but a big DeSean Jackson play can make up the difference.
4. Saints ** They peaked a bit too soon. Besides the rout against the Patriots, they've lived off the big turnover and that's something you can't always count on late in the year. They lost at home to a 2-12 Bucs team that could have cost them the #1 seed.
5. Patriots **** Randy Moss backed up his talk with a monster game against the Jags. The defense has lots of problems but with Brady/Moss/Welker and a plethora of running backs on offense, they have a decent chance to try again in the Super Bowl.
6. Cowboys ***** Romo is playing the best ball of his career and in meaningful games despite enormous pressure. He still needs to prove he doesn't hold the title of NFL's Biggest Choker, but this looks like a new year. The Cowboys stayed remarkably healthy all season.
7. Vikings ** Another team that peaked way too early. Favre's comeback last week was miraculous but let's be honest, they were down 16-0 at halftime to a Bears team that threw in the towel two months ago. Adrian Peterson cost his team the game with a fumble in overtime, which is the reason you shouldn't rank his the league's best running back. They need Percy Harvin back and healthy.
8. Cardinals **** Nothing like a couple games against the Lions and Rams to tune-up for the playoffs. Another prolific offense but this team boasts a good defense, too, 3rd most sacks. They are also capable of a 5-turnover game.

Messy Middle
9. Bengals ** Pretty unremarkable since that big win in Pittsburgh in mid-November, and that will likely continue this week.
10. Packers *** Honestly, their only quality win was against the Cowboys. Aaron Rodgers has been great but the team leads the league in penalties. For your entertainment, a playoff opener against the Vikings is likely (that's right, Favre vs. Packers III).
11. Titans *** Chris Johnson will top 200 yards rushing in a record-setting weekend. The defense is really banged up, that was was painfully brought to life against the Chargers on Christmas day.
12. Steelers *** LaMarr Woodley needs to keep his mouth shut, the Steelers won't be in the playoffs because they lost to the Chiefs, Raiders, and Browns down the stretch.
13. Ravens ** Haven't done a thing since September so it's remarkable that this unremarkable team is poised for a playoff birth. They top the league in penalty yards, drop a lot of key passes, and Flacco makes some really dumb throws.
14. Texans **** Schaub to Andre Johnson is one of the game's best combinations, but the lack of a ground game is what will cost them a playoff spot and likely Coach Kubiak's job.
15. Panthers ***** Imagine where they could be if they had of benched Jake Delhomme after the near-disaster against Tampa Bay in mid-October; this could have been an 11-win team! Matt Moore looks like a winner, and he doesn't even have to do much with their twin backs helping out.
16. Broncos * They just needed one win and they would be a playoff lock but three losses in a row have doomed them. There is still a reasonable chance for them to get in, expecially with a trip to Kansas City. They just need the Raiders to do to the Ravens what they did to them.
17. Dolphins ** They just don't have enough left to get into the playoffs, but I like what I see with Chad Henne and Tony Sparano. Victims of a brutal schedule this season, thanks to last year's success.
18. Jets **** They will likely be one of the worst teams to ever make the playoffs. But actually, if it hadn't been for those 3 botched kicks against the Falcons they could have won their last 6 games (assuming they win Week 17).
19. Giants ** Eagerly waiting for the end of a dreadful year. A win in Minnesota would brighten their spirits, but the game also has blowout potential the other way.
20. Falcons ** Only win against a playoff contender was that awful Jets game. Victimized by key injuries, but tough teams find a way to win some of those.

Those Dozen Teams at the Bottom
21. Jaguars * After Maurice Jones-Drew this team is nothing but question marks.
22. 49ers *** The San Francisco Singletarys continue to show improvements. Frankly, I think it's also a lot of guys playing over their heads, but next season brings a lot of optimism.
23. Bears ** As bad as the second half was and include a missed overtime FG they still beat a good Vikings team. It's a little late for the Bears to be playing inspired football. They better get a new coach who can get into the head of Jay Cutler or next year will suck, too.
24. Browns **** Kind of hard to believe this team is favored in back-to-back games with a possibility of winning 4 in a row to end the year.
25. Raiders ** This team would have been in the playoffs had they not cut Jeff Garcia.
26. Bills * Favored to beat out the Colts bench team, but expect to be disappointed.
27. Bucs **** Lots of things to be excited about for the future.
28. Redskins * Outscored a combined 38-0 in the first half in the last two week's division rivalry games.
29. Seahawks * Lots of changes will be made.
30. Chiefs * Jamaal Charles is a bright spot, who has a longshot of reaching 1,000 yards.
31. Lions * Adding teeth to their logo improved their win total by 2 this season.
32. Rams * Will they pick another lineman to start the draft? Hasn't worked lately.