Wednesday, June 27, 2012

my picks for NL All Stars


Wow, making up the team for the American League was a whole lot easier than that for the National League. If I had my way, the NL roster would have 10 hitters and 24 pitchers. That's the way the performance has been. Unfortunately, I gotta play by the rules. This team is dramatically less intimidating than the AL. Even among pitchers, with no Halladay, Cliff Lee, Tim Lincecum, Johan Santana, or Josh Johnson.

Again, here are the basic requirements for roster selection:
- 34 players per league (21 hitters, 13 pitchers. I don't know if that is set in stone but that's how it was for both leagues last year).
- Every team must be represented.

Starters in bold.

Catcher: Carlos Ruiz, Yadier Molina, Buster Posey

First base: Joey Votto

Second base: Dan Uggla, Jose Altuve, Brandon Phillips

Third base: David Wright, Chase Headley, David Freese

Shortstop: Starlin Castro, Rafael Furcal

Outfield: Ryan Braun, Carlos Beltran, Andrew McCutchen, Melky Cabrera, Carlos Gonzalez, Giancarlo Stanton, Michael Bourn, Matt Holliday, Jay Bruce

Pitchers:
Starter: Matt Cain, R.A. Dickey, Stephen Strasburg, Wade Miley, James McDonald, Gio Gonzalez, Johnny Cueto, Clayton Kershaw, Cole Hamels
Reliever: Craig Kimbrel, Aroldis Chapman, Jon Papelbon, Joel Hanrahan

A few observations:

- To show just how thin the NL is at first base after Fielder and Pujols left last year and Adrian Gonzalez the year before:
The runner up in voting is a guy who's batting #7 for the Braves, hitting .254 with 9 home runs on the season. Next in voting is a player who has only played 2 weeks of the season. Fourth in voting is another #7 batter with just 4 home runs batting .261. (First base All Star??) And fifth is Ryan Howard, who hasn't even been on the field.

I would plan on Votto playing the whole game. If he needs a break, I'd put Buster Posey at first.

- Carlos Beltran would be my DH. It looks like he will be voted to start in the outfield, in which situation I would have Melky Cabrera DH.

- There is nothing really crazy happening in the voting, other than Ryan Braun getting no love from fans after testing positive for PED last year. Matt Kemp is the leading vote receiver, but he's been hurt much of the season and won't be playing.

- Starting pitching is obviously very deep this year and challenging to narrow down. Omissions include Lance Lynn (10 wins), Chris Capuano (9 wins, 2.60 ERA), and Zach Greinke and A.J. Burnett (8-2). If Brandon Beachy were healthy that would also complicate things. Kershaw was the last one in, but being the reigning Cy Young winner puts him in. His record is just 5-4, but that's because he is receiving among the league's lowest run support. On the flip side, Lynn's high win total can be attributed to his league leading run support. Capuano could take Hamels' place, especially as the Dodgers have the best record with only one rep and the Phillies are in last with 3 reps, but Hamels does have the track record and more wins.

- I haven't seen Craig Kimbrel much, but I did see him a couple times against the Yankees, and he is the filthiest pitchers the Yankees have seen all year. I want him in the 9th inning.

- This lineup is not very scary. Absent are injured Kemp, Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Howard and Lance Berkman. If I was creating a better team I'd use Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes, but they haven't had their usual strong seasons, Marlins are disappointing, and Headley takes HanRam's spot. I might use Ramirez at shortstop, replacing Jay Bruce's roster spot, but he hasn't played there at all this year.

- This roster would yield the following team representation:

Reds, Cardinals 5
Braves, Phillies, Giants, Pirates 3
Nationals, Mets 2
Dodgers, Marlins, Astros, Rockies, Padres, Brewers, Cubs, Diamondbacks 1

Monday, June 25, 2012

numbers by the numbers

Here are a few baseball numbers that jump out at me.

- 1 = Josh Hamilton home runs in the month of June. On May 12, Hamilton had 18 dingers and there were articles written guaranteeing he would hit 75 by season's end. Whether it is a slump or injuries, he will be hard pressed to get 50 now.

- 12-13 = Mets record over their last 25 games, a stretch against the Phillies, Cardinals, Nationals, Yankees, Rays, Reds, and Orioles. That is tremendous! They made it through and they now sit at 5 games over .500.

- 43 2/3 = Consecutive innings thrown by R.A. Dickey without allowing an earned run, the longest since Orel Hershiser's record 59 in 1988. The streak ended yesterday.

And now, a bunch of stats for those Bronx Bombers.

- .219 = Yankees hitting with runners in scoring position, lowest total in the American League by a wide margin (Mariners at .239). By comparison, the Rangers are at .293 in that situation. Here are the main culprits:

Robinson Cano .154, Alex Rodriguez .209, Curtis Granderson .217, Mark Teixeira .221, Russell Martin .163, Eric Chavez .045.

- 112 = Yankees home runs, most in majors. A lot of people will point to the stadium they play their home games in and shrug off that stat. How about this next stat:

- 54 = Yankees home runs on the road, most in majors. And they've played fewer road games than the next five teams on the list.

- 52% = Yankee runs that have come via the home run, most in majors by far. That's why they are winning despite the earlier numbers.

- 6 = doubles by Alex Rodriguez. For the highest paid player in the sport I expect a little more power.

- 7.80 = C.C. Sabathia's ERA in first innings. The rest of the game his ERA is 2.73.

How it ought to be



The Midsummer Classic, baseball's All-Star Game is quickly approaching. Fan voting is well underway and rosters will be announced in the near future.

I follow the American League very closely. If I were responsible for selecting the roster, here's how I would go.

Here are the basic requirements for roster selection:
- 34 players per league (21 hitters, 13 pitchers. I don't know if that is set in stone but that's how it was for both leagues last year).
- Every team must be represented.

Starters in bold.

Catcher: Joe Mauer, A.J. Pierzynski

First Base: Prince Fielder, Paul Konerko

Second Base: Robinson Cano, Jason Kipnis, Ian Kinsler

Third Base: Miguel Cabrera, Edwin Encarnacion, Adrian Beltre

Shortstop: Derek Jeter, Elvis Andrus

Outfield: Josh Hamilton, Curtis Granderson, Jose Bautista, Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, Mike Trout, Josh Reddick

Designated Hitter: David Ortiz, Billy Butler

Pitchers:
Starter: Jered Weaver, Chris Sale, Justin Verlander, C.C. Sabathia, C.J. Wilson, Jason Hammel, David Price, Felix Hernandez.
Reliever: Jim Johnson, Fernando Rodney, Rafael Soriano, Chris Perez, Joe Nathan.

A few observations:

- I initially had Matt Harrison and Scott Downs in and left out Jered Weaver and Joe Nathan. Weaver missed a month with injury, but came back with a great outing last week. His reduced numbers are the best in the league right now. I switched him for teammate Downs. That left in imbalance with starting pitchers and relievers, so I did a double switch with teammates Harrison and Nathan. Weaver should be the starting pitcher and throw one inning.

- It is very interesting to note that the most popular and considered the best player in baseball Albert Pujols will likely miss the All Star game for the second year in a row. (But American League fans don't care for him anyway.)

- Current fan voting was taken into consideration above and will likely effect (affect?) the eventual roster. As of a week ago, Mike Napoli was the leading vote-getter for catcher, but that seems to be the only significant inconsistency. If Napoli gets in, it would be tough luck for A.J. Pierzynski.

Usually the Red Sox are among the highest represented teams. But regulars Adrian Gonzalez, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis (now traded), and Jon Lester have all been bad, and Jacoby Ellsbury, Josh Beckett, and Carl Crawford are all hurt. David Ortiz is having a monster season, leading the team in every offensive stat, and is an easy and obvious choice for starting designated hitter. When you consider that the Red Sox have been in last place the whole year, only sending one player is reasonable.

- The Athletics, Mariners, Royals, and Twins required some special attention for their representation. Joe Mauer was an easy selection and I think he should start. Felix Hernandez is having an off year but so is everyone else on the Mariners (and I don't think Kyle Seager will replace Adrian Beltre at 3rd). Reddick and Butler were pretty obvious selections for their teams.

- Fielder, Sabathia, Cabrera, Ortiz. That's a lot of fat people.

- This roster would yield the following team representation:

Rangers, Yankees, Angels = 5
White Sox, Tigers = 3
Orioles, Rays, Blue Jays, Indians = 2
Red Sox, Twins, Athletics, Mariners, Royals = 1

Monday, June 11, 2012

When Baseball and Fantasy Collide

So the lay person has an idea what I’m talking about:

As a stat junky, I love fantasy sports, an online game where you join a league with 10 or more “owners” and pick players from any team to fill your roster. In football only one team can own Tom Brady, Eli Manning, etc., in baseball only one team can own Jeter, etc. The only thing that matters is the statistics, and whoever compiles the best numbers wins. A little more complicated than that, but not much.

I’ve been playing fantasy baseball since like 1997. I love it. From 2006-09 I won 6 of my 12 leagues. I know what I’m doing. The season is really long and baseball, unlike football, is an everyday thing so lineups should be checked almost every day, along with the necessary research. It’s tough. When my kiddo was born last year I decided not to play, but for this year I sneaked myself into one league.

I don’t normally write about fantasy baseball. But this season for my team has been ludicrous. It’s crazy enough to write about.

- On draft day I was in that nebulous spot right after Robinson Cano got selected. I was stuck with either Jacoby Ellsbury or Joey Votto. I picked the Red Sox player, and I’ve been cursed ever since. Jacoby got hurt in April and is not close to returning. My team also had Brett Gardner and Lance Berkman, and those 3 players, my entire outfield, went on the DL within like 3 days of each other. Nick Swisher, my 4th outfielder got hurt sometime later and missed a week of games. (Meanwhile, Votto has been a Top 10 player.)

- For third base I went with a guy who has hit 141 homers the last 4 seasons and is in the prime of his career. This is Mark Reynolds, who in 2012 can’t hit his way out of a paper bag. Third base has been a black hole for my team and a revolving door.

- For my closers I snagged the Rays’ Kyle Farnsworth (got hurt minutes before the season started), Mets’ Frank Francisco (had an ERA over 8 in mid-May), and I picked up Red Sox’ Alfredo Aceves (dreadful) and David Robertson (has been hurt for over a month).

- I mentioned Berkman and Swisher, who also qualify at first base; my other first baseman drafted was Ike Davis. Statistically, he is among the three worst hitters in all of baseball. Ouch.

- My three sleeper pitchers were Matt Moore, Ubaldo Jimenez and Ted Lilly. Lilly is currently on the DL for the second time and the other two are still sleeping. I did smartly pick up Felipe Paulino for a couple great starts, and then he got injured.

Shouldn’t be a surprise that I sit in dead last, 12th place. I’ve had three or four injured players on my roster continuously for two months. The guys who are healthy are underperforming. Half of my starting lineup was picked off the waiver wire, and that’s a bad sign.

Is it football season yet?