AL East update: everyone's a winner!

AL BEast Notebook - June 26 

It's exciting times in the AL East this summer as all five teams are over .500 (no other division has four). The top and the bottom are separated by just six games, teams are getting healthy, and we are getting a lot of divisional matchups lately. Here is your AL East report, notes from all five teams conveniently in one place.

Boston Red Sox

** Red Sox hoped Clay Buchholz would be ready to start Tuesday's game but he is not progressing from his injury. He is 0-2 in bullpen sessions, and is now unlikely to return before the break.

** Jon Lester was 6-0 with a 2.72 ERA after his ninth start on May 15. In 7 starts since, Lester is 1-4 with a 7.30 ERA. He is giving up lots of hits, lots of walks, and lots of home runs (eight in his last four games).

** The Red Sox sent Will Middlebrooks down to Pawtucket on Tuesday. The third baseman who broke out last year never got going in 2013 and leaves with a .192 average (.228 on-base percentage). One of the reasons the move makes sense is the offensive breakout of slick-fielding Jose Iglesias, who's AVG/OBP is .434/.484 and earns him a spot in the everyday lineup. After hitting three home runs in a game on April 7, Middlebrooks fell into a 5-for-54 slump that he never really got out of.

** One of the biggest keys of the season for the Red Sox was their "improved" bullpen, and that has been a disaster this year. Replacing ineffective and now injured Joel Hanrahan, Andrew Bailey has been removed from the closer role after throwing a gopher ball in four out of five outings (and another run in his most recent game). While Koji Uehara can take his place, all the movement makes the entire bullpen weaker.

** All that negativity being said (what do you expect; I'm a Yankees fan), Boston still has the best record in the American League, and starting pitchers not named Jon Lester are 9-3 in June with a 2.86 ERA.

New York Yankees

** If all goes right, this team could look very different in three weeks: Curtis Granderson, Derek Jeter, Francisco Cervelli, Eduardo Nunez, and Michael Pineda are all progressing and hope to join the Yankees after the All-Star break.

** As for Alex Rodriguez, he caused quite a stir Tuesday when he tweeted that his hip surgeon cleared him to play; GM Brian Cashman responded by saying "Alex should just shut the [expletive] up." A-Rod said he made the statement out of pure excitement from the positive prognosis, but it is obvious that the Yankees organization want to make the public statements and that it's the team doctors that have the authority about when he is physically ready.

On the other hand, it is also obvious that the Yankees want nothing to do with A-Rod and are hoping that the league is able to swiftly get through this Biogenesis mess and suspend him.

** One guy that won't be coming back is Mark Teixeira. His doctors say that his wrist sheath is not healing and season-ending surgery is recommended. Expect the Yankees to be in the trade market for a first baseman.
 
** The thing about this Yankees season is it is very misleading. Vernon Wells is dreadful for two months, then gets a game winning hit. What are we supposed to think, keep him in the lineup? Ichiro had only three extra-base hits since May 11 before hitting the walk-off homer on Tuesday night. Does that mean he deserves to stay in the lineup? Travis Hafner is hitting just .173 since April, but he does have six home runs; should they keep running him out there? Rookie Zoilo Almonte has had a fast start; is he one of the top three outfielders when Granderson returns? And what about Lyle Overbay?

** Hiroki Kuroda has been great, but the rest of the rotation leaves much to be desired. C.C. Sabathia has given up 4+ runs in five of his last seven games, and Andy Pettitte and Phil Hughes are not pitching well. David Phelps and Ivan Nova look great from time to time but also get bombed from time to time. Of those six, Kuroda is the only one with an ERA under 4.00, and the way the Yankees have been hitting the last two months, that's not good enough.

Baltimore Orioles

** Despite getting swept up by the streaking Blue Jays last weekend, there's lots of good news in Baltimore. Wei-Yin Chen, Brian Roberts and Nolan Reimold are all very close to returning. Chen, out since mid-May, will be a welcome sight for a team that has seen enough of Freddy Garcia.

Roberts, a two-time All-Star, has been out since the first week of the season. His replacement, Alexi Casilla, hit his first home run of the season on Tuesday, a three-run shot off Indians Justin Masterson that won the game.

** Orioles fans have come out in droves to vote for All-Stars and the numbers show. Four O's are leading the vote at last count (Chris Davis, J.J. Hardy, Adam Jones and Nick Markakis), and a fifth as a non-starter, Manny Machado, is entirely possible. However, if Markakis does get in then it is unlikely the Orioles would get a fifth, especially with Cabrera, Longoria, Donaldson and Beltre playing well at third base. (Could he still get in on the fan Final Vote?)

** Pitcher Chris Tillman has quietly been the most effective starter in Baltimore. Tillman has not allowed more than three runs in 12 of his last 13 games, and with the way the Orioles hit that's good enough for a 9-1 record since April 22.

** It's not all good news though. Dylan Bundy, who came into 2013 as the best pitching prospect in all of baseball, is scheduled to have Tommy John surgery on Thursday and will miss a whole year.


Tampa Bay Rays

** The Wil Myers Era has begun in Tampa Bay. Myers picked up his eighth RBI in his ninth career game, and is actually the fourth player to do that this season (joining Puig, Gattis and Arenado). Batting behind Evan Longoria, he has already made pitchers pay twice for intentionally walking Longoria in front of him.

** Reigning Cy-Young winner David Price will pitch his second rehab start today (Wednesday). If all goes well, he could be ready to start for the Rays next week in Houston. Price has been out since May 16, and wasn't very good before that (1-4, 5.24).

** Fellow starter Alex Cobb took a line drive off his face June 15 and received a concussion. He is still having symptoms and is not close to returning.

** Speaking of pitchers, Matt Moore had a game reminiscent to Wild Thing on Tuesday. He struck out 11 batters but walked 6, throwing a career-high 120 pitches and only got through the sixth inning.

Toronto Blue Jays

** The win on Wednesday puts the Jays back over .500 but that's not all the good news in Toronto. Jose Reyes, who hadn't played since April 12 with an injury, was back in the lineup Wednesday against the Rays. And who wouldn't be excited about getting back a switch-hitting, high-energy, leadoff man shortstop that won a batting title a couple years ago?

R.A. Dickey threw a gem on Wednesday, allowing just two hits and one walk as the Blue Jays ace shutout the Rays in Tampa Bay. Blue Jays are hoping that great performance, along with Reyes' return, can get them back on another big run with an important series at Fenway Park up next.

** Blue Jays big 11-game winning streak that took them over .500 (and briefly out of the division basement) coincides with some great pitching, especially the return of Josh Johnson from injury and the addition of veteran Chien-Ming Wang to the rotation. Esmil Rogers got pounded on Sunday, but he had pitched very well in his previous four starts (2-0, 1.71).

** Two other injury notes: third baseman Brett Lawrie is still a month away from returning and pitcher Brandon Morrow suffered a setback and has yet to resume throwing.

welcome back Tex, Youk and Andy! (four days too late?)

AL BEast Notebook - May 31

New York Yankees

** No better time to make changes than after getting swept by the cross-town Mets. Fortunately, some moves will be natural as some former All-Stars are returning from the disabled list. Kevin Youkilis and Mark Teixeira are set to play today (Friday) against the Red Sox.

The Yankees bats have really been quiet lately. Against the Mets, who owned the second-highest ERA in the National League, the Yankees could not muster more than one run in three of the four games. And while they did collect four runs in the other one, David Phelps allowed five Mets to score in the first inning. Not only that, but in each of the last three games the Yankees struck out at least nine times and didn’t earn a walk.

As well as the fill-ins have played, it is time for the backups to get back to being backups. The Yankees have gotten more out of Lyle Overbay than they could have hoped, and David Adams has shown he can be a valuable batter against lefties. For the time being (with Tex, Youk, Overbay, and Nix/Brignac all available for corner infield), Adams is likely to head back to the minors, along with pitcher Vidal Nuno.

** Andy Pettitte is scheduled to return and start Monday at the stadium against the Indians, and that will likely mean a pink slip for either Adam Warren, Preston Claiborne, or Ivan Nova.

Boston Red Sox

** Speaking of returns, the Red Sox got a good performance in the season debut of Franklin Morales off the DL in a spot-start win over the Phillies Thursday night. Clay Buchholz has been out with a collarbone problem, but he is expected to be ready to pitch Sunday in a great matchup with Hiroki Kuroda.

** In each of the four games against the Phillies, Jacoby Ellsbury led off with a hit and came around to score off the bat of Dustin Pedroia. And in Thursday’s game Ellsbury didn’t stop there. The speedy outfielder got on base four more times and stole five bases, a Red Sox single game record. Strangely, despite Ellsbury constantly putting himself into scoring position, he never touched home after those five steals. (It didn’t bother the team too much; Boston still scored nine runs.)

Tampa Bay Rays

** Pitching is still what it’s all about in Tampa Bay and there seems to be no shortage of arms to go around. This week THREE Rays make/made their season debut: Jake Odorizzi and Alex Colome started games the Rays won and Chris Archer starts Saturday. With David Price injured, Alex Cobb needing extra rest for his finger, and Jeremy Hellickson struggling, it definitely helps to play the Marlins. Even Roberto Hernandez pitched a gem. Archer will have a much tougher test in Cleveland this weekend, and next week starts with a trip to Detroit.

stats and facts: Week 8

Happy Memorial Day! It was too good of a day to sit at the computer and type so your weekly report for May 20-26 comes out on Tuesday instead of Monday, but there is still a lot of good stuff to read about.

** Last Monday, the Mariners homered in the 8th, 9th, and 10th innings and still lost the game.

** For the third time in his career, Joe Mauer broke up a no-hitter with one out in the ninth inning.

** In his last seven games, Mets Dillon Gee has given up two home runs to opposing pitchers and two home runs to all the positions players he has faced (courtesy of ESPN's Jayson Stark).

** In 2012, Jim Johnson and Fernando Rodney converted 99 save opportunities, blowing just five chances. In 2013 they have already blown 9 saves.

** As the Yankees ace, CC Sabathia is expected to beat the Yankees biggest rivals, the Red Sox and Rays. It hasn't worked so well. According to Kate Sharp, the Yankees are 1-9 in Sabathia's starts at Tropicana Field since he joined the team in 2009. Since the start of 2010, New York is 4-8 in his starts against the Red Sox (home and away).

** Speaking of struggling aces, Cole Hamels has started 11 games and the Phillies have won just one of those. Add Roy Halladay's starts and the Phillies are just 3-15 in those games. That's not exactly what the team expected when the put the rotation together.

** Speaking of not struggling aces, Dodgers Clayton Kershaw went 22 starts without giving up four earned runs, a streak that finally ended Sunday.

** One more pitcher: Young Diamondbacks starter Patrick Corbin became the first pitcher ever to pitch nine innings at Coors Field (in Denver) while striking out ten batters and throw under 100 pitches.

** Week of the Big Sluggers:

- Jose Bautista had a pretty big day Wednesday. The Blue Jays slugger went 4-4 with a walk, stolen base, two home runs, including a game-tyer in the bottom of the ninth, and a game-winning RBI single in the 10th. He had 4 RBI as the Jays won 4-3. For the week, Joey Bats collected 14 hits and 5 walks and scored 8 runs.

- Like his early April, Chris Davis is on fire again. The O's first baseman hit 4 home runs last week. Adding this Monday to last week's totals, Davis had 14 hits, 7 walks (.583 OBP), 7 extra-base hits, and scored 9 runs. Normally that's a shoo-in for PotW.

- There was also Mike Trout (see below).

- Miguel Cabrera continued where he left off the previous week as he continues to give managers headaches and gray hair. In a span of five games, Cabrera piled up these crazy numbers: 10 hits, 5 walks, 6 HR, 9 runs, 15 RBI. In five games. Before his ho-hum weekend, Miggy was on pace for .388 average, 257 hits, 49 home runs, 45 doubles, 200 RBI, 137 runs, and his second straight Triple Crown MVP. And when things are going good for you, sometimes you get a little more help along the way.

** Most Exciting Play: Down 5-4 in bottom of 10th inning with a runner at second, Giants Angel Pagan hit an inside-the-park home run to win the game. What could possibly be more exciting than a walkoff inside the park homer? Check it out.

** Best Moment: following his game-winning RBI double Sunday, you have to see the post-game with Munenori Kawasaki of the Blue Jays.

Players of the Week

Could have been any of a dozen guys. Flip a coin.

AL: Mike Trout, Angels. All the young centerfielder did was get 12 hits including two homers, two triples, a double and four stolen bases, scored ten runs, collected seven RBI, hit for the cycle, and help the Angels win eight games in a row. It was a good week.

NL: Joey Votto, Reds. Votto takes home his second straight PotW as he had eight hits and six walks for a .518 on-base percentage (raising his season OBP to a ridiculous .475), also hitting a pair of homers and scoring eight runs while the Reds won five games in a row.

Yankees' Granderson injured again

AL BEast Notebook - May 25

** Second verse, same as the first. A week after Curtis Granderson made his season debut after getting struck in the arm by an inside pitch from a left-hander, it happened again.

Granderson was hit on the hand by a pitch thrown by Rays lefty reliever Cesar Ramos in the fifth inning of Friday night's 9-4 win over Tampa Bay. The Yankees outfielder grimaced in pain and shook his head and hand on base but he stayed in the game as he later came around to score in a big inning for the Yankees before getting replaced by Ichiro the next half inning. He was immediately taken in for x-rays that showed he suffered a broken knuckle on his left pinkie. After missing the first 38 games of the season, the injury is expected to sideline him at least another four weeks.

At least the Yankees will not have to make drastic changes to the lineup. Brett Gardner, Ichiro and Vernon Wells are all still here and have been accustomed to manning the Yankees outfield for most of the year. Girardi had said the last few days that he was going to have to decide on a regular trio instead of circulating all four outfielders, so at least this event makes that decision easier. (Ichiro would have been the odd man out, so he has another shot staying in the lineup everyday.)

** Unfortunately, Granderson wasn't the only Yankee to leave with an injury Friday night. Starting pitcher David Phelps was struck on the right forearm by a line drive off the bat of Ben Zobrist in the eighth inning. He has been diagnosed with a contusion (bruise). He's the second starter this rotation to leave with a contusion, Hiroki Kuroda getting hurt Wednesday. While both pitchers will be sore for a few days, they are likely to make their next scheduled starts.

** Robinson Cano was also awarded a "hit-by-pitch" in Friday's game, although actually the ball struck the end of the bat, not his hand.

** The Boston Red Sox were also hit with the injury bug Friday. Third baseman Will Middlebrooks was placed on the 15 day disabled list with a bad back, and right fielder Shane Victorino went on the DL with a tight hamstring.

notes from Monday's Yankees vs. Orioles (lots to say!)

AL BEast Notebook – May 20

In case you missed it, on the day after the fifteenth anniversary of the ’98 Yankees/Orioles brawl, the Yankees defeated the Orioles 6-4 in ten innings in one of the more interesting games of the season. And even if you did catch it, you don’t want to miss my notes from the night.

** Pitching matchup looked like an easy pick: C.C. Sabathia versus terrible Freddy Garcia. As it turns out, Sabathia was awful and Garcia was surprisingly acceptable.

** Sabathia gave up 11 hits, second game in a row of 10+ allowed. He blew a fifth inning lead and a seventh inning lead.

** Garcia gave up just three hits in six innings, but two were home runs.

** Yankees reliever Shawn Kelley has struck out 15 of the last 21 batters he has faced. He had more strikeouts in one inning (3) than Sabathia had in six-plus innings (2).

** The first base umpire made a terrible call in the sixth inning that may have changed the game. Tied 2-2, after a leadoff single, Matt Wieters grounded to third base; David Adams threw to first but Wieters beat him by a step. It should have been two on and nobody out. But the ump called Wieters out, making it man on second with one out. Buck Showalter turned purple as he screamed at the ump and first baseman Chris Davis continued to make comments to the ump the next inning. The Orioles did not score a run in the inning.

** Yankees hit four solo home runs: Robinson Cano, David Adams, Lyle Overbay, and Travis Hafner. Cano now leads the AL in homers (Baltimore’s Chris Davis tied him an inning later).

** After converting 35 straight save chances, an Orioles record, Jim Johnson blew his third game in a row.

** Despite Hafner tying the game with a homer in the ninth, Buck Showalter opts to intentionally walk Cano in the tenth inning with a man on third to face Hafner. Pronk smacks a single to make it 6-4.

** Cano walked twice in a game for the first time since September 13.

** Rookie Adams (homer), Overbay (go-ahead homer), Hafner (tying homer in ninth), Ichiro (leadoff double in tenth and scored winning run) and Vernon Wells (winning RBI in tenth) all played huge roles in this game. You can call that winning off the scrap heap.

** Overbay, batting cleanup, entered the game hitting just .119 with no homers against lefties in 42 at-bats. Buck Showalter brought in the lefty Troy Patton to face Overbay in the seventh and the first baseman hit it out to make it 3-2 Yankees.

** Orioles had 13 hits and five doubles in the game, but their team leader in hits, doubles and batting average, Manny Machado, didn’t even get on base (0-5).

** Mariano Rivera picked up his 95th career save against the Orioles, the most ever for one pitcher against one team. Mo is 17/17 in saves on the year.

** Orioles have lost six straight games and seven in a row at home.

** Strangely, this was the ninth time this year that the Orioles lost while still getting at least ten hits.

** Orioles bullpen has been just awful during this six-game slide. Dating back to Wednesday, Baltimore relievers have pitched 22.2 innings and allowed 21 runs.

** Yankees are 19-0 on the season when they score first (Cano homered in the first inning). They had to come back in this one, and they did.

** With the win and the Red Sox loss, New York is 1.5 games ahead of Boston. Tampa also lost to fall five back, as is Baltimore.

AL BEast Update

AL BEast Notebook - May 20

** Another week, another significant injury for the New York Yankees as Andy Pettitte joins the rest of his All-Star teammates on the disabled list. Pettitte has a strained trapezius; it may be the first time I've even heard of the muscle. On the bright side, with Sunday's rainout and a day off Thursday, there is no need of a fill-in starter right away and New York can go with a 4-man rotation a couple times before his spot comes up.

In the first game of the Yankees/Indians doubleheader Monday, salaries for the Yankees lineup totaled $30.35 M. Salaries for the Indians lineup = $41.35 M. Bet you didn’t expect that.

It has really been a weird season for the Yankees and nothing short of a miracle that they are still in first place. In that doubleheader Chris Nelson, Corban Joseph, Alberto Gonzalez, Preston Claiborne, Austin Romine, Vidal Nuno and Adam Warren, along with Lyle Overbay, Jayson Nix, Brennan Boesch, and Ben Francisco all got on the field in pinstripes. Sounds more like an early Spring Training tryout, not a pair of mid-May games for the New York Yankees. Not surprising, those Bombers only scored in two of the 18 innings that day. 

Yankees have had 13 shutouts over the last two seasons, and Hiroki Kuroda has started and won 7 of them. 

** Boston Red Sox bounced back from their 2-9 stretch to win five in a row all on the road. Sox are now AL-best 14-7 on the road.

It has really been a roller-coaster season for David Ortiz. After missing the first 15 games (the team going 11-4), he returned in a flurry; batting .512 into the May 3 game and hitting in 15 straight games. But then a Boston columnist wrote an accusatory article accusing Big Papi of cheating and his on-field play plummeted as he hit just .175 over two weeks with RBI in just one game, and the Red Sox went on their big skid. But since then Ortiz turned it on again, hitting in 8 straight games, collecting 12 RBI in a five game stretch last week and the Sox are back to winning.

Big Papi's teammate, former-MVP Dustin Pedroia is also on fire, hitting in 11 straight games, batting .343 on the season and producing 51 runs (RBI + R - HR).

But the top of the rotation continues to be the story in Boston. The Red Sox are 15-3 in games started by Lester and Buchholz, and neither pitcher has suffered a loss (12-0).

** Meanwhile, since losing Wei-Yin Chen to the DL the Baltimore Orioles have lost five in a row, all at home.  It was not a good week for closer Jim Johnson. After converting 35 straight opportunities, Johnson blew two consecutive saves, Tuesday against the Padres and Saturday in epic fashion versus the Rays. In the two games he allowed ten baserunners and seven runs while recording just four outs (one via an outfield assist to third base). The game on Saturday snapped Baltimore's streak of 108 wins when leading after seven innings.

The Birds continue to be led by the incredible trio of Chris Davis, Manny Machado and Adam Jones, who are each hitting above .310 with a combined 72 extra-base hits. Of other players only Mike Napoli has more XBH than that average of 24.

** Since starting 14-18, Tampa Bay Rays are on a roll winning 9 of 11. The Rays and Orioles had an interesting weekend together. On Friday, Baltimore scored six runs in the eighth inning; the next day Tampa scored six runs in the ninth inning.

Matt Moore is the first pitcher to eight wins, but due to high pitch counts he doesn't go deep into games. In fact, he has recorded an out past the sixth inning just three times despite throwing over 100 pitches in all nine starts.

David Price went on the DL this week on May 15. He earned just one win in his nine games. On May 15, 2012 Price earned his sixth win.

** Not much to say about the Toronto Blue Jays who got embarrassed at Yankees Stadium over the weekend after it looked like they may be turning a corner.

One bright spot is Ramon Ortiz, who turns 40 this week. Since replacing injured J.A. Happ, Ortiz has had two good starts in a row, giving up just one run in each.

The postponed game comes at a good time, stopping some negative momentum and giving them a little more rest as several key injured players are getting close to returning (Josh Johnson, Dustin McGowan, Happ, and Rajai Davis), and an extra day to prepare for a divisional homestand.

AL BEast team capsules - quick news and numbers

AL BEast Notebook – May 13

New York Yankees
Despite having 11 players on the disabled list (including four third basemen and shortstops), the Yankees stand alone in first place. Since April 7, New York is 22-9.

• Mariano Rivera has turned back the clock, picking up an AL-best 15 saves in 15 opportunities, supported by a 1.65 ERA and sub-1 WHIP.
• After a shaky start, Hiroki Kuroda has thrown six straight quality starts. He’s now 5-2 with a 2.31 ERA.
• Robinson Cano has been the one consistent in the lineup all year. Cano is hitting .311 with 10 home runs, 10 doubles, 23 RBI, and 22 runs scored, and committed just one error in 320 innings at second base.
• Vernon Wells has been a big contributor to the team, hitting .293 with 9 home runs, 20 RBI and 19 runs scored. And the Angels are paying most of his salary.

Boston Red Sox
Two weeks ago I wrote that it was all smiles in Red Sox Nation, as Boston held the best record in baseball with a favorable upcoming schedule. Things haven’t stayed so sunny.

•  The Red Sox are falling apart. They are 2-8 in their last ten games, including losing 5 of 6 at home to the Twins and Blue Jays. The games haven’t been close, either. Boston was outscored 33-62 over those last ten.
•  The bullpen was supposed to be a big strength for the team, but it is actually the main cause of the problems. Hanrahan got hurt then got hurt again in his first game back and will miss the rest of the season. Andrew Bailey filled in well as closer until he got hurt. Tazawa has not been effective. Actually, the Sox haven’t had many save opportunities at all lately enough to worry about who’s the closer. The Red Sox bullpen WHIP and ERA are highest in the AL.
• After his late start, David Ortiz hit .500 in nine April games. In May he is batting just .179.
•  Red Sox games have a lot of whiffs. Boston hitters have struck out 317 times, more than any AL team. Their pitchers have also struck out the most batters (363).
• It isn’t all bad for the Sox. Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester continue to pitch well. They are combined 11-0.
• Here are a few things to add comfort to Red Sox fans. The three batters they sent to the Dodgers are all hitting well (Adrian Gonzalez .345, Carl Crawford .315, Nick Punto .338). Jed Lowrie is hitting .310 for Oakland with 13 doubles. James Loney is hitting .376 for the Rays. Marco Scutaro is hitting .479 since April 29 for the Giants. And that’s excusing Josh Reddick, who hit 32 home runs in Oakland last year.

Baltimore Orioles
Orioles have been very consistent all year, having scored the most runs in the league and have the best run differential in the division.

•  Chris Davis was red-hot for the first three weeks, and Manny Machado has been on an absolute tear the last three. Since the middle of the doubleheader on April 20 (22 games), Machado is hitting .396, with three straight three-hit games over the weekend.
• Jim Johnson has converted 35 consecutive regular season save opportunities, most in franchise history. Johnson has not allowed a run in any save situation this year (14 innings).
• There are suddenly some concerns with the starting rotation. Wei-Yin Chen was cruising along with five shutout innings Sunday when he left with an oblique strain. An oblique strain usually means a trip to the DL. If so, he would be joining teammate Miguel Gonzalez, who went on the DL Thursday with blister problems. They have sent down pitchers Steve Johnson, Jake Arrieta and Zach Britton (and Josh Stinson) to the minors in the last few weeks. Freddy Garcia has been starting and is scheduled for Wednesday, but I trust Garcia about as far as I can throw him.

Toronto Blue Jays
Despite a 5-3 stretch recently (a big improvement), there is still plenty of concern in Toronto.

• Josh Johnson is on the disabled list, Brandon Morrow was scratched from his start on Sunday, and J.A. Happ was struck in the head with a line drive last week. Ricky Romero was removed after recording just one out in his second start and promptly returned to the minors. Blue Jays pitchers have already issued the most walks and allowed the most earned runs and unearned runs, and these recent events put even more pressure on R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle, who haven’t been very good anyway.
• Rajai Davis strained his oblique over the weekend and will also be shelved for a couple weeks, the Jays second leadoff hitter to go down.
•  Toronto is in last place by five games and has the worst run differential in the league.
• There is one thing the Blue Jays do well and that is hit home runs. They lead the league in bombs (51 in 39 games).
• Jose Bautista is starting to heat up. He is hitting .333 in May (with .453 OBP), although his two homers in Sunday’s blowout win were his first since April 27.

Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay has won five straight games to crawl above .500 (19-18).

• Here’s a strange situation: the Rays hitters are Top Ten in runs, home runs, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage while Rays pitchers are in the bottom half of the league in ERA, quality starts, batting average against, on-base percentage and home runs.
• Matt Moore is 6-0 and had a quality start in every game outside of Coors Field. His 2.14 ERA is among the league leaders.
• James Loney has now accumulated enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. His .376 average trails only Miguel Cabrera.
• Evan Longoria continues to do it all: .333 average, 47 hits, 9 home runs, 10 doubles, 28 runs scored, and 26 RBI.

(Disclaimer: Again, the Astros are so bad that when giving team rankings in the league, the Astros are ignored. So technically worst probably means second-worst.)

all smiles in Red Sox Nation

AL BEast Notebook - April 29

There's a lot of buzz right now about the Red Sox hot start. Yes, after a 93-loss season, today they have the best record in all of baseball at 18-7, and they've been quite impressive. Here are some of the reasons why.

- Starting pitching has allowed three runs or less in 23 out of 25 games.

- Boston is 14-0 in games started by Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz and Felix Doubront.

- Boston hitters are batting 52 points higher than their opponents (.272 to .221).

- With runners on base, the Red Sox hitters lead the league in average (.310), on-base percentage and slugging percentage.

- Conversely, with runners on base, Red Sox pitchers have allowed the lowest average (.176), on-base percentage and slugging percentage.

- Dustin Pedroia is hitting .330, along with the second-highest walk total in the AL. He actually only has six extra base hits and leads the American League in singles. But all those singles and walks is just fine because...

- Mike Napoli has fallen in love with the Green Monster, hitting a league-high 13 doubles in 25 games and compiling 27 RBI already.

- Jacoby Ellsbury is only batting .273, but he has 11 stolen bases already.

- David Ortiz is back to his old self. He has 16 hits in eight games and dating back to July, has a 20-game hitting streak. In those eight games this season he has 11 RBI and a .529 on-base percentage.

- Red Sox closer Joel Hanrahan struggled then got hurt, yet his replacement Andrew Bailey has been superb. In seven games and innings since taking over, Bailey has given up just three hits, one run, and picked up five saves.

- Looking at the upcoming schedule, you can expect them to keep it up. If we pretend the Twins (who are at 11-10) lose in Detroit tonight, then only 3 of the next 30 games for the Red Sox are against teams above .500. Take a look at the schedule.

It has been a crazy month in Boston. After all they've gone through with a Patriots Day tragedy and successful citywide manhunt, it feels appropriate that they are having a happy start.

early look at AL East Awards

AL BEast Notebook - April 26

Four weeks into the season isn't too soon to evaluate award races for the AL East. Well, maybe it is... but it's still fun.

First Month Awards

MVP: Chris Davis, Orioles. Davis leads the division in home runs, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and runs created and WAR (sabermetric stats), and all that with virtually no protection in the lineup (J.J. Hardy, batting .181). Napoli and Cano honorable mention.

Best Pitcher: Matt Moore, Rays. 4-0 in four starts in two good hitters' parks (Arlington and Camden Yards) along with dominant performances over the Yankees and Indians. ERA of just 1.04, WHIP of 0.92 and batting average against of .116. Apologies to Clay Buchholz.

Biggest Surprise: Daniel Nava, Red Sox. The 30-year old career fourth outfielder's strong start has allowed him to take over left field from Jonny Gomes and Jackie Bradley, Jr. Nava is third in the AL East in on-base plus slugging percentage (behind just Davis and Cano) with 18 hits in 18 games along with 10 walks, 4 homers, 11 runs, and 15 RBI.

Biggest Disappointment: David Price, Rays. Tampa is 0-5 in last year Cy Young winner's starts. After racking up more Ks than hits three years in a row, he's struck out just 26 batters while allowing 37 hits, and lots of the extra-base variety (five home runs and ten doubles), although neither in recent loss to Yankees).

Manager: John Farrell, Red Sox. The new sheriff in town came to fix the pitching in Boston and in April he has. Starting pitchers have allowed three runs or less in 20 of the Sox 22 games. Boston’s team ERA has rebounded from worst to best. The offense has also been surprisingly strong, leading the division in on-base percentage, helping the Red Sox jump out to an early tie for best record in the American League at 15-7.

Rookie: Manny Machado, Orioles. He’s not technically a rookie since he had 181 at bats in 2012, but the 20 year old wonder kid has blossomed into an All-Star already. He’s batted #2 and played third base every inning of Baltimore’s games. Along with racking up defensive highlights he is showing a clutch gene, going 6 for 9 with runners in scoring position and two outs, for 11 of his 14 RBI. If not rookie, he's been the breakout player at least.

Crazy Stat: Toronto’s J.P. Arencibia, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, and Colby Rasmus have combined to hit 22 home runs and just 31 singles. They also have 98 strikeouts.

Updated Projections

Orioles 88 (0)

Blue Jays 87 (-2)

Yankees 84 (0)

Red Sox 84 (+4)

Rays 80 (-3)

injury updates and recent moves

AL BEast Notebook - April 26

Here's an update of injuries and significant transactions (from reputable sources around the teams) all organized nicely to help you keep tabs on what's going on around the division.

New York Yankees

- Kevin Youkilis has been out a week with a sore back. He was supposed to be back yesterday but needed some more rest.

- As for the regulars, Curtis Granderson is the most likely to return first. He was hitting off a tee this week and could be two weeks away. Mark Teixeira was targeting May 1, but is now realistically hoping for a late-May return. Michael Pineda threw a simulated inning and is hoping to make a June return. Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter are hoping to be ready in July.

Boston Red Sox

- Shane Victorino has missed three games this week with back stiffness. On Thursday John Farrell said he will not return to the lineup until he is “symptom-free.”

- John Lackey threw this week and is on track to come off the DL and pitch against the Astros on Sunday, which is like a glorified rehab assignment.

- Joel Hanrahan threw a bullpen session on Wednesday and is headed to Pautucket on Friday to begin a rehab assignment.

- Craig Breslow is planned to pitch back-to-back days in Pautucket this weekend and could return to Boston next week.

- Franklin Morales had a setback in his rehab, developing some soreness in his chest this week. There’s no timetable on his return.

Other moves: Alfredo Aceves was demoted to AAA. Daniel Bard was brought back up this week after Steven Wright came up for one poor outing before getting sent back down. Allen Webster was called up and started one of the doubleheader games and promptly returned (although he pitched well). Backup catcher Ryan Lavarnway is in Boston.

Baltimore Orioles

- Steve Johnson pitched a rehab game in the minors on Wednesday and didn’t do particularly well, giving up four runs in five innings. He could be back in Baltimore next week.

- Brian Roberts has not been cleared for baseball activities. He jogged on a treadmill in a pool this week (sounds like fun). Late May is a realistic expectation.

- Tsuyoshi Wada, recovering from Tommy John surgery, pitched four innings in an extended Spring Training game this week. Orioles hope he can be back in June.

- Wilson Betemit, torn PCL in his right knee, should be back sometime this summer.

- Top prospect Dylan Bundy is dealing with elbow/arm problems and will visit Dr. Andrews on Monday for a second opinion. 20 year old Bundy hasn’t thrown off a mound since March.

Other moves: It has been a game of musical chairs for Orioles pitchers lately. Josh Stinson was called up for one start and was promptly sent back down. Reliever Alex Burnett was also called up and returned a couple days later. Zach Britton was called up Thursday and scheduled to start Monday after Jake Arrieta was sent to the minors.

Toronto Blue Jays

- Josh Johnson will miss Friday’s scheduled start because of triceps tightness, though the move was described as precautionary. He has had a poor April, giving up four runs and not pitching past the sixth inning in three of his four starts.

- Sergio Santos is eligible to come off the DL on April 30 but I can’t seem to find any update on him. Seems like he’s not likely to come back for at least another week.

- Jose Reyes is targeting the All-Star break as a return date from his severely sprained ankle.

- Blue Jays have several lesser pitchers out without much of a timetable (Dustin McGowan, Kyle Drabek, Drew Hutchinson).

Other moves: Blue Jays picked up Aaron Laffey off waivers and he will start in place of Johnson today (Friday) against the Yankees (New York usually struggle against lefties.) Ramon Ortiz and Brad Lincoln were swapped for the bullpen.

Tampa Bay Rays

- Yunel Escobar left the game Wednesday with tightness in his hamstring and not expected to play Friday. He’s day-to-day.

- Luke Scott is set to make his season debut on Tuesday.

- Jeff Niemann underwent shoulder surgery April 10 and will miss the season.

And to Think I Saw it on East 161st Street

AL BEast Notebook - April 19

Brook from Brooklyn throws the first pitch

Yankees lost to the Diamondback yesterday in a game so strange it would make Dr. Seuss proud.

- D-Back rookie shortstop Didi Gregorius hit a home run on the first pitch he ever saw in the major leagues

- In bottom of eighth inning down 2-1, bases loaded and one out and two strikes, Robinson Cano was hit by a pitch on the foot that forced in the tying run. But wait; the umpires say he didn't check his swing, and the strikeout overrules the hit-by-pitch. Two outs and runners stay. (Youkilis followed with another strikeout.)

- Arizona led off the 9th, 11th, and 12th innings with a double

- After the ninth inning double, the D-Backs were thrown out at the plate and reloaded the bases on a catcher's interference.

- Francisco Cervelli, who looked like he hurt his hand when it was struck by the bat in the CI mentioned above, hit a home run in the bottom of the ninth to tie the game. It was the third time in the series that the D-Backs blew a lead.

- Mariano Rivera was unavailable after finishing the previous two games.

- In Arizona 11th and 12th innings, Yankees' pitcher David Phelps (pitching instead of Rivera) allowed leadoff doubles (as mentioned above), a walk, hit batter and another catcher interference by Cervelli. With no outs and runners at first and third, A.J. Pollock tried bunting but Cody Ross was thrown out at third base.

Catcher interference is something you practically never see. You would think that manager Joe Girardi, a former catcher, would have said something to Cervelli after the first instance where he clearly reached his glove forward to get struck by the bat and may have injured his hand. But nope, Cervelli did the same thing a second time.

- Eric Chavez doubled to clear the loaded bases in the 12th. Chavez, who played in New York the last two years, never had a game with three RBI for the Yankees.

- And of course, New Yorker Zack Humple caught two home run balls in the bleachers. Humple is the author of the book, "How to Snag Major League Baseballs."

Just another day at the ballpark.

Jeter has a new crack in ankle, out 'til ASB

AL BEast Notebook - April 18

Well, Eduardo Nunez, this is your chance.

After breaking his ankle in the playoffs last October, Derek Jeter set his sights on April 1, Opening Day, to return to the field. When that didn't work the goal was May 1. Now the time for seeing The Captain playing shortstop in pinstripes is way down the road.

A CT scan revealed a small crack in his ankle in the area of his previous injury. It is a new crack. He has been declared out until July, at least. That will be after his 39th birthday. That will be at least nine months after he last played. And that is best case scenario. Early August is more likely.

Eduardo Nunez has been the everyday shortstop in his absence and that will continue to be the case. After struggling defensively for much of his career he has actually been solid with the glove and throwing. He has not hit at all yet, just .240, and Nunez has missed basically five games already from getting hit by a pitch a couple times.

People have said for years that Jeter can't be an everyday shortstop anymore, and even after he returns that will likely be the case. So here we are at the post-Jeter Yankees. I've said that Nunez can be a quality starting shortstop in this league, and this is the time for him to show that.

Nunez won't be able to replicate Jeter's 216 hits, but being in the lineup every night will help him be comfortable and get in a better rhythm. He is capable of racking up a .275 average, 10 homers and 15 steals by July 1. For a backup shortstop that should be fine. However, the only other infielder on the team is Jayson Nix, a weak offensive player that was pinch-hit for last weekend even though it caused Cano to move to short and Francisco Cervelli to play second. There's no additional room for injuries in the infield.

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As for Jeter and the Yankees, it's hard to say what's left in the tank. This latest injury is probably a result of Jeter pushing himself too hard for Opening Day, so the Yankees are going to take this slowly and carefully. Hard to believe, but Alex Rodriguez could be back before Jeter.

It has been a rough month for AL East shortstops. Along with Derek Jeter's extended absence, the Blue Jays also have an All-Star (Jose Reyes) that is out for three months with an ankle injury. The Red Sox just got their shortstop Stephen Drew back after a concussion. The Orioles' J.J. Hardy is batting .193, but that is still a lot higher than Yunel Escobar (.115) for the Rays.

what's the purpose of an off-speed pitch?

AL BEast Notebook - April 17

In the bottom of the fourth inning on Tuesday, the Yankees were trailing the Diamondbacks 2-0. With one out and runners on first and second, Brandon McCarthy was pitching to Robinson Cano.

McCarthy threw a slider outside, another slider in the dirt, then a changeup for ball three. Cano taking all the way, the next pitch was a changeup right down the middle, followed by a slow inside curveball that was fouled away.

The sixth pitch of the at bat was yet another changeup, right down the middle, and Cano blasted it to Timbuktu.



So yeah, what is the point of an off-speed pitch, specifically a changeup? To interrupt the batter's timing and keep him off balance. So why in the world is the pitcher throwing six off-speed pitches in a row? I think Robinson Cano is perfectly capable of hitting an 84 mph fastball, and when you don't throw a real fastball to him--throwing six consecutive slower pitches--that's all a changeup is!

Cano's hit was a three run shot that was just crushed. Yankees won the game 4-2.

Dear Brandon McCarthy: you have a 94 mph fastball; use it. Otherwise you might as well be Jamie Moyer, and Jamie Moyer isn't sneaking an 84 mph fastball past Robinson Cano.

mid-April view of the New York Yankees

AL BEast Notebook - April 15

For all the doom and gloom of the preseason and then Opening Week, things have turned pretty well for New York lately. The Yankees have won five of their last six to sit at 6-5, much of the pitching is going well and the offense is finding pleasant surprises. Basically, the good has been great and the bad has been dreadful.

There was cause for concern when CC Sabathia looked lifeless on Opening Day and then Hiroki Kuroda’s hand was struck by a line drive in the second game, but since then the top of the rotation has been all that you could ask for. Kuroda pitched an absolute gem on Sunday night, going the full nine innings and didn't even allow a runner to reach second base until two outs in the ninth (thanks to an error and fielders choice). After a dreadful second inning against the Red Sox, Sabathia has responded with just one earned run in his last 18 innings. Andy Pettitte has been stellar on the mound, allowing just one run in each of his two starts.

The lineup picked up last week, led by Robinson Cano who hit .500 with three homers, four doubles and eight RBI. Kevin Youkilis, Vernon Wells, Travis Hafner and even Francisco Cervelli have been quite productive. In fact, even after looking entirely anemic against the Red Sox and Tigers, Yankees have the highest OPS (on base plus slugging percentage) in the American League. Cervelli has been the biggest surprise, as the catcher is 3 for 3 with runners in scoring position and two outs. He has also worked seven walks in nine games and holds a .500 on base percentage, and has not allowed a stolen base.

Injuries and depth, of course, continue to be the primary concern with the Yankees. Derek Jeter is nowhere near returning. His replacement, Eduardo Nunez has been hit by a pitch a couple times, causing him to miss multiple games on two different occasions already. The only backup infielder is Jayson Nix, and he is pretty much an automatic out. Girardi pinch hit for Nix on Saturday and had to use Cervelli at second base and move Cano to shortstop.

Pettitte missed a start due to back spasms (he is old) and was pushed back a couple times. He is expected to pitch on Friday, ten days after his last game. Another seasoned vet Ichiro looks awful out there (.176, no stolen base attempts).

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Back of the rotation is definitely a sore spot. Phil Hughes and Ivan Nova are combined 0-3 with an 8.75 ERA. Fortunately, the Yankees could skip Nova’s start last week thanks to rain in Cleveland. He starts Tuesday against the 8-4 Diamondbacks. David Phelps is ready to take his place should he struggle, although Phelps has been very effective in long relief.

Back of the bullpen (Rivera and Robertson) has been fine, but the rest of the pen has pitched poorly to the tune of a 5.19 ERA and 1.67 WHIP overall. It hasn’t affected the outcome of any games as starting pitchers have picked up every decision.

Overall, the games have really been dictated early on. New York is 5-0 when the score first, and 1-5 when first scored upon. There hasn’t been much drama; every game has been decided by two or more runs.

Due up: D-Backs, @Blue Jays, @Rays, Blue Jays


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mid-April view of the Tampa Bay Rays

AL BEast Notebook - April 15

Tampa Bay is off to a terrible start. After Monday afternoon’s loss in Boston the Rays are sitting in the bottom of the AL East at 4-8.

My biggest concern with the Rays is here front and center: they just can’t hit!

- Evan Longoria and Ben Zobrist are doing pretty well at the plate, but they are getting no help. Batters 5 through 9 in the order, plus #2 (that’s two thirds of the lineup!) are hitting a paltry .169.

- As a team they have hit just four home runs in twelve games. Before Longoria’s homer in Monday’s game they had gone over six games without bopping one out.

- Rays are just 1 for their last 28 with runners in scoring position.

- Tampa has scored AL-worst 35 runs (2.9/game)

And they haven’t been facing amazing pitchers in pitchers’ ballparks: Fenway Park and the Ballpark in Arlington, and the Indians and Orioles at home. They simply can’t hit.

Where is Wil Myers when you need him?

The Rays have been victimized by some poor officiating. One of the games against the Rangers ended on an egregious called third strike that should have loaded the bases for Longoria, and today in Boston Longoria was incorrectly called out at first on a play that should have brought home a run in the sixth. Both games were lost by one run.

- The biggest strength of the Rays is David Price. That has not been an advantage, as the team is 0-3 in his starts.

- Matt Moore has been a bright spot. He has not given up a run yet in his two games and has two wins. However, a high pitch count has prevented him from pitching past the sixth inning.

- The bullpen has a 5.22 ERA.

- Roberto Hernandez won the #5 starter job but he has been poor, holding a 6.08 ERA and allowing 21 base runners in 13.1 innings. Unfortunately, the pitcher he was selected over, Jeff Niemann, had shoulder surgery and will miss the whole season. If Hernandez continues to struggle, the Rays will have to bring up Chris Archer, who made four starts in the majors last year.

Due up: Three series: @Baltimore, Athletics and Yankees, followed by a 10-game road trip.

what you need to know about Chris Davis

AL BEast Notebook – April 6

Orioles games have become Must-See TV with the way first baseman Chris Davis has been hitting. Much has been said already but here are some things that stick out to me.

- Only two other players in history have hit a home run and had three runs batted in four straight games: Lou Gehrig and Bill Dickey (75 years ago). They both did it five in a row.

- Every team has played four games. Fourteen teams have lower home run totals than Chris Davis.

- Davis has produced more runs (17; 16 RBI plus one other run scored) than sixteen teams have scored. That’s over half the league.

- 16 RBI is the most for the first four games in MLB history.

- Davis has 9 hits in his last 13 at bats (.692) with four homers and three doubles.

- Davis is 5 for 7 with runners in scoring position for 14 RBI, and 3 for 3 with RISP and two outs.

- Davis is 7 for 8 batting against righties and has hit two home runs against lefties.

- Three of his home runs are on pitches outside the strike zone. He has hit a home run to right field, center field, and two to left field.

- For his career, Davis has averaged a strikeout every three at-bats. This young season he has one strikeout in 15 at-bats.

- Despite his hot hitting, Davis has been walked just once. Why? The man immediately in front of him (Adam Jones) has a league-leading 10 hits. And the batter before Jones has had four hits and three walks. Strangely, managers have intentionally walked the batter before or two before Davis twice. Davis knocked the ball out both times.

O's sting the Rays on Opening Day #2

AL BEast Notebook – April 2

Trying to show that last season was no fluke, Baltimore started the season with an impressive win in Tampa Bay over David Price and the Rays’ bullpen.

Everybody got hits for the Orioles Tuesday afternoon but it was the heart of the order that did all the damage. David Price gave up a two run homer to Matt Wieters in the first inning. Then, with two on, two strikes and two outs, Adam Jones smacked a go-ahead double in the seventh, and after an intentional walk to Wieters, Chris Davis took Jake McGee to the bleachers.

After Wieters’ homer in the first Orioles had lots of baserunners but Price did a good job of getting out of trouble. He escaped a bases loaded jam in the third and leadoff doubles in the fourth and sixth. Price ended his day after six innings with a lead, but McGee couldn’t put batters away.

McGee had two strikes on both Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis but the veterans each smacked the ball right back over the mound for singles. Then with two strikes to Adam Jones, the center fielder hit a clutch shot to deep left center for the go ahead runs. Davis’ three run homer followed. McGee has a dubious 67.50 ERA after one day.

Ben Zobrist homered in the fourth for Tampa’s first run. Joe Maddon and the Rays manufactured a couple runs in the sixth to take the lead. After a leadoff walk, Jennings doubled in a run, Fuld bunted him over to third, and Ben Zobrist hit a sacrifice fly to make it 3-2 Rays. But the pitchers couldn’t stop the O’s, giving up 13 hits (including two homers and four doubles) and four walks.

Jones, Wieters and Davis combined to get on base nine times and knock in all seven runs.
The division rivals meet again Wednesday night with Wei-Yin Chen opposing Jeremy Hellickson.

From around the league, the Daily Top Five:

- Yu Darvish retired the first 26 Houston batters until Marwin Gonzalez broke up the perfect game with a shot up the middle between Darvish’s legs with two outs in the ninth. I have a feeling that we will be seeing several more potential no-hitters against the Astros this season.

- The knuckle wasn’t working for R.A. Dickey today as the new Blue Jays’ ace gave up five hits, four walks and four runs in a loss to the Indians. It took Darvish 107 pitches to finish six innings.

- Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki each homered for the second straight game. Rockies beat the Brewers 8-4.

- Elvis Andrus and the Rangers agreed to a contract extension through 2022. Including the two years he had remaining, the deal is basically for 10 years, $131 million. So much for the Yankees’ plan of chasing him to be Jeter’s replacement. Andrus is 24 years old.

- Madison Bumgarner is pitching a gem. Through six innings he’s given up just one hit while shutting out the rival Giants.

Opening Day win for the Red Sox in the Bronx

AL BEast Notebook – April 1

It’s a great start to the season if you are a Red Sox fan. Not so much for their proud counterparts in the Big Apple.

CC Sabathia gave up four runs in the second inning on walks and singles and that was all Boston needed as they beat the Yankees 8-2 on a day that started out warm and sunny and ended cold, rainy and windy, with empty bleachers and trash blowing all over the field.

The Yankees certainly didn’t exactly resemble your traditional Bronx Bombers. Confused New Yorkers were cheering for “Yooouuk.” Injured A-Rod and Jeter were replaced by Jayson Nix and Eduardo Nunez, who combed for 0-6 with five strikeouts. Ben Francisco, playing for his sixth team in the last 16 months, was the designated hitter. They needed some terrific pitching from their ace, and they didn’t get it: CC gave up eight hits, walked four batters and got pulled after the fifth inning. Joba Chamberlain, looking like a caterpillar is taking up residence under his nose, pitched a terrible ninth allowing three to score that only about 68 fans left in the stands witnessed. It was an uninspiring performance by the Yankees, who allowed four infield hits and walked eight Boston batters.

Sabathia’s career ERA in April is 7.24 and despite starting five times he is still winless on Opening Day with the Yanks. In his last seven games against the rival Red Sox he is 2-4 with a 6.70 ERA.

The Red Sox lineup wasn’t much more intimidating, but the first three batters had seven hits while Jarrod Saltalamacchia and rookie Jackie Bradley combined for six walks and four runs. Bradley had a big impact in his major league debut, also beating out a throw at second base that opened the floodgates in the second inning, then made a run-saving catch in left field in the third.

The lone bright spot in the game for New York was Francisco Cervelli, who coaxed Yankee fans one step back from the ledge when it looked like it would be the same old story. Cervelli got a two out hit, the Yankees’ first in two years, with the bases loaded to send two runners across home. Then in the sixth he made a great tag to stop Ellsbury at the plate and keep the Sox’ lead at just two.

But the day belonged to the Red Sox and the Yankee lineup made Boston’s pitchers look nearly perfect. Lester had just one bad inning while striking out seven in five innings, while five relievers yielded one hit across the last four frames. New Sox reliever Koji Uehara needed just five pitches to get through the sixth. New closer Joel Hanrahan also threw a 1-2-3 inning in his his first appearance for the club.

If the game wasn’t bad enough, Alex Rodriguez made an appearance for the media beforehand, answering more questions about PEDs and stating that the Yankees being projected to finish in last place is “pretty crazy.”

Both teams get a day off tomorrow. Then the Yankees will shake up the lineup with righty Clay Buchholz taking the hill, although that really only means Lyle Overbay and Travis Hafner get the start and Ichiro bats second.

Certainly, Girardi declares afterward that it’s just one game out of 162, but the lackluster yet predictably bad performance will probably not be a rare occurrence this month.

From around the league, the Daily Top Five:

- Bryce Harper homers twice, Strasburg throws seven shutout innings, Nationals win 2-0

- Clayton Kershaw pitches a complete game shutout and breaks a scoreless tie himself with a home run in the eighth, Dodgers beat the Giants

- Angels and Reds combined for 30 strikeouts and 4 errors in a 4:45 long 13 inning game in Interleague action on Opening Day. Reds batters not named Shin-Soo Choo went 1-37 (.027). Angels win

- Felix Hernandez and Chris Sale each threw 7.2 shutout innings for the Mariners and White Sox, Jeff Samardzija throws 8 scoreless for the Cubs

- Meanwhile, the Blue Jays, Rays, Orioles and Indians are saying “don’t forget about us!”

AL East Season Preview and Predictions

AL BEast Notebook – March 29



I’ve been covering each of the five East teams all winter and spring long and here is my “Official 2013 Preview.” Yes, it’s long so bookmark and come back often. I’ll have the rest of the league up in the next couple days.

The AL East will be the most interesting division in baseball with five teams that could each reasonably finish in first or last place. All should have win totals in the 80s. While the division has been known for it’s intimidating sluggers and top-to-bottom lineups, there has been a clear shift to pitching.

For each team you have:

1) my report with reasons to be excited and reasons to be concerned
2) specific bullet points of what must happen for them to succeed
3) specific bullet points of what must happen for them to end up in the basement
4) Season headline
5) My record prediction
6) How many more wins in best-case scenario (ceiling)
7) How many fewer wins in worst-case scenario (floor)
8) A player that is likely to outperform expectations
9) A player that is likely to disappoint

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Boston Red Sox

After being MLB’s most disappointing team two years in a row Boston is looking for a bounce back season. They definitely aren’t in typical “Rebuilding Mode” with the likes of Victorino, Napoli, Gomes, Dempster, Lackey and (eventually) Ortiz all in prominent positions. Now that expectations are so low after losing 93 games they hope that a new manager, revamped lineup and more secure bullpen will get them back into prominence. But it won’t be easy.

Two of the best pitchers this spring were Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz. After a dismal 2012 campaign, that is a welcome sight for Sox fans. Even Jon Lackey has been effective. In fact, the Red Sox staff led the league in Spring Training ERA. It may just be Grapefruit League but it’s much better to be good than bad!



There are issues with the lineup. Your Opening Day lineup will include Jose Iglesias, Jonny Gomes, Jackie Bradley, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia. The #5 hitter is a player with less than a full year of major league experience (Will Middlebrooks). If things go poorly—and with injured and injury-prone players like Ortiz, Ellsbury, Napoli and Gomes, and young players like Middlebrooks, Bradley and Iglesias, you can expect it—there is virtually no depth on this roster.

The weak bullpen from a year ago looks to be put together well. New closer Joel Hanrahan, former All-Star Andrew Bailey, and veteran setup man Koji Uehara are expected to shorten games to 6 innings.

For those that think the pitching staff will bounce back to greatness, consider this: Saltalamacchia is the signal caller. Jason Varitek is long gone. Once Salty took the majority of the time behind the plate the starting pitching (everyone) fell apart. Don’t underestimate the importance of a good catcher (or impact of a catcher the pitchers don’t trust).

Red Sox will WIN the division IF…

1) Jon Lester wins 20 and Clay Buchholz wins 18
2) Ortiz and Ellsbury combine for 55 home runs
3) Napoli and Middlebrooks stay healthy all year
4) Dempster or Lackey pitch effectively

Red Sox will finish LAST in the division IF…

1) Ortiz and Stephen Drew are ineffective
2) Two of Ellsbury, Pedroia, Napoli or Middlebrooks miss significant time
3) Any two of the starting five pitchers miss significant time

Miller’s Forecast

“Sox Crumble Third Year in a Row”
80-82; +8 ; -8
Surprising impact: Jacoby Ellsbury
Biggest Disappointment: Ryan Dempster

Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay had the best team ERA in all of baseball last year and won 90 games, but still finished third in the division, three games out of the final playoff spot. And in the offseason they lost James Shields, B.J. Upton and Carlos Pena and didn’t really replace them.

The biggest question for the Rays is where is the offense going to come from? Yes, Evan Longoria is ready after missing half the season and could finally emerge as an elite player, and Wil Myers will get called up sometime, but who else is there? Ben Zobrist and Luke Scott? That’s it! And while Myers is the best hitting prospect in baseball, he probably won’t break out like Mike Trout and Bryce Harper. He could be great, but the Rays tend to baby their young players. Myers will be a star in 2014, but for ‘13 Tampa has the weakest lineup in the division.

Of course, their pitching is very good. David Price won 20 games, the other starters were great and Fernando Rodney finished 2012 with a 0.60 ERA and 48 saves. Can young Matt Moore, Jeremy Hellickson and Alex Cobb keep the Rays’ team ERA microscopic again? Well sure, but it’s not a guarantee. And if you check the history of Rodney, his first year in Tampa was his first since 2006 of an ERA lower than 4.24 and WHIP under 1.47. Seems like a fluke.

Many people are picking the Rays to make the playoffs. The Rays have been the quietest team in the league this spring, and that’s surely a very positive thing. Great pitching in Tampa has been a given for like eight years now. Joe Maddon, perhaps the best game manager in baseball is running the show. But I cannot see how a team that continues to lose key players year after year without bringing in free agents will keep it up this year, especially in such a competitive division.

Rays will WIN the division IF…

1) David Price wins 20 games again and another pitcher wins 16
2) Evan Longoria plays 155+ games
3) Wil Myers is called up early and breaks out in a big way
4) Fernando Rodney continues where he left off in the WBC with another All-Star season
5) Two of Zobrist, Joyce, Scott or Jennings hit .295+ with 25+ homers

Rays will finish LAST in the division IF…

1) Something happens to Price and Longoria
2) Hellickson and Matt Moore regress
3) No hitter beyond Longoria provides power

Miller’s Forecast
“Where’s James Shields?” and “Not Enough Help for Longoria”
83-79; +7 ; -4
Surprising impact: Alex Cobb
Disappointment: Matt Moore

New York Yankees

Yankees won 95 last year, and this team looked like the worst 95-win team in the history of baseball. Due to injuries and questionable personnel decisions the lineup is very different, especially early in the season.

Everybody knows about the crowded star-studded disabled list (Teixeira, Granderson, A-Rod, Pineda, Hughes and Jeter) and they have a whole bunch of other players that could potentially fall apart (Hafner, Youkilis, Wells, Ichiro, Pettitte, Rivera) and some key positions that are serious offensive question marks: catcher (Stewvelli) and first base (Overbay). It is just not the situation you want to be in to start the season.

One concern with this team is that they are very lefty-heavy in the lineup. Cano, Granderson, Gardner, Ichiro, Hafner, and Overbay all bat from the left side. That’s great for Yankees Stadium, but they will struggle on the road against left-handed starting pitchers.

Robinson Cano is the one rock on this team. He will be an MVP candidate every year he stays in pinstripes. Reports are that Curtis Granderson should return on time and back to form in May. The power is gone, but there is still ability to score runs with Ichiro, Gardner, and Jeter/Nunez at the top of the lineup. The starting pitching is strong and deep. The bullpen, even without Rafael Soriano, should be very strong again as long as Mariano is effective.

Eduardo Nunez struggles defensively, but if he ever gets a full-time job he could hit .300 with 25 homers and 30 steals.

Yankees will WIN the division IF…

1) C.C. Sabathia makes 28+ starts
2) Derek Jeter plays 145 games and hits .290+
3) At least two of Hafner, Youkilis, or Wells make it through the season healthy and somewhat effective
4) At least two of Teixeira, Rodriguez or Pineda return and are somewhat effective
5) Mariano Rivera stays healthy and Rivera-like

Yankees will finish LAST in the division IF…

1) Sabathia and Cano miss significant time
2) Teixeira and A-Rod miss the season, or are ineffective upon return
3) Rivera shows the effects of his 43rd birthday, getting hurt or pitching poorly
4) Yankees get nothing from Wells and Youkilis

Miller’s Forecast
“Old Age and Injuries Catch With Bombers”
84-78; +5 ; -6
Surprising impact: Kevin Youkilis
Disappointment: Derek Jeter

Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore had a miracle season, winning 93 games taking the Yankees to a full series after knocking out the Texas Rangers in the playoffs. And all this after averaging 94 losses for the previous six seasons. What was most miraculous was how they won. They did not even have a positive run differential until September 28, the last week of the season. They dealt with tons of injuries. They only had one pitcher start more than 20 games or pitch 140 innings, and that was an unspectacular rookie. And of course, their 29-9 record in one run games, including a record 13 in a row, is something difficult to explain.

Looking ahead to now, there are actually very few question marks with this team. While they don’t have a true “ace,” they have one of the deepest reservoirs of starting pitchers in the league including a handful of pitchers that were outstanding in limited 2012 action. Due to 65 starts by terrible pitchers their overall ERA was mediocre, and that should improve this season with a little stability.

Baltimore’s bullpen was one of the AL’s best, led by closer Jim Johnson’s league leading 51 saves, and Darren O’Day, Troy Patton, Pedro Strop and Luis Ayala. Johnson is a regression candidate, but the ‘pen should still be very strong.

The lineup is also very stable with many players on the way up in their careers (Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, Chris Davis, Manny Machado, Nolan Reimold). Nate McLouth may have regained his All-Star form after the trade to Baltimore. Late call-up Machado looks like he could be a star player and is here for a full sophomore year. The biggest difference could be in the middle of the field as two-time All-Star Brian Roberts is finally healthy and looking good in spring. It looked like he would be hitting leadoff but just today Showalter announced that Roberts will start at the bottom of the order.

Buck Showalter has turned this young group into winners. They have a very good core of players in Jones, Wieters, Machado and Davis, and if the starting pitching doesn’t fall apart they should contend for the Wild Card again. If Wei-Yin Chen, Miguel Gonzalez, Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta develop and improve, they could win the East outright.

Orioles will WIN the division IF…

1) Team pitching gets their ERA down to 3.80
2) At least three pitchers win 13 games
3) The bullpen remains a strength
4) Brian Roberts plays 140+ games
5) Adam Jones and Matt Wieters make their third All-Star game

Orioles will finish LAST in the division IF…

1) The inexperienced pitching falls through
2) Two of oft-injured Roberts, McLouth, Reimold and McLouth can’t stay healthy and produce

Miller’s Forecast
“Critics Still Waiting for Showalter’s Club to Fade”
88-74; +4 ; -8
Surprising impact: Brian Roberts
Disappointment: Wei-Yin Chen

Toronto Blue Jays



Toronto sailed along at 45-44 until July 16 when Jose Bautista injured his wrist. Several pitchers broke down as well and the Jays floundered, going 28-45 the rest of the way. GM Alex Anthopoulos was very busy this offseason, acquiring R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Jose Reyes, Melky Cabrera, Emilio Bonifacio and re-hiring coach John Gibbons. Suddenly, Toronto looks like the most complete team in the division.

The biggest x-factors for the Jays this year are Johnson and Brandon Morrow. If they can stay healthy the Jays rotation should stay quite effective. You know what you are getting with Dickey, Buehrle and J.A. Happ, and the offense will score a lot of runs and hit a lot of home runs. Johnson and Morrow have top-of-the-rotation potential. If they stay healthy Toronto will win a lot of games.

One concern critics have is all the moving parts. Reyes played poorly in Miami, Johnson was less effective, Melky was suspended 50 games, and Dickey moves from pitcher friendly Citi Field and the NL East to the AL East. Bautista is coming off a wrist injury that has the potential to drain his power. All that being said, this is a team that hasn’t made the playoffs in twenty years. Changes had to be made! Opportunities presented themselves and the Jays jumped. And with three pitchers coming from the NL to AL East, remember that none of the Yankees, Rays, Red Sox or Orioles improved their lineups; in fact, they all (other than the Orioles) should have worse offenses.

I love the way this team is made: Knuckler, power righty, soft lefty, power righty, lefty. Reyes, Melky, Bautista and Encarnacion (42 homers in 2012) should be the most productive 1-4 this side of Los Angeles, and if Adam Lind and Brett Lawrie produce they are even deeper.

The one issue with the Jays is their bullpen, which was dead-last in the AL in 2012. They didn’t add anyone new. Closer Casey Janssen is coming off shoulder surgery and may not be ready for the start of the season, and Sergio Santos missed most of the regular season with shoulder surgery as well. The way the Jays are set up for “Win Now,” expect them to look at the free agents available (Brian Wilson, Jose Valverde, Francisco Rodriguez) should things start to fall apart.

Blue Jays will WIN the division IF…

1) Morrow and Johnson pitch 56+ games
2) Jose Bautista regains his power stroke and has an MVP-level season
3) Reyes and Cabrera each play 145+ games and hit over .290
4) Bullpen finishes no worse than 10th in the AL

Blue Jays will finish LAST in the division IF…

1) Any two of their top four starters miss significant time
2) Bautista re-injures his wrist
3) Bullpen repeats a dismal season
4) Major chemistry issues emerge

Miller’s Forecast
“Joey Bats is MVP” and “Anthopoulos’ Aggressiveness Pays Off”
89-73; +5 ; -5
Surprising impact: Brett Lawrie
Disappointment: Melky Cabrera

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Toronto 89-73
Baltimore 88-74
New York 84-78
Tampa Bay 83-79
Boston 80-82